ACUS01 KWNS 120542
SPC AC 120541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z


Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across the central
Gulf Coast states and south Florida on Monday.


Weak mid-level height rises will be noted across the Gulf states
during the first half of the period, with perhaps some weak falls
during the latter half. In the absence of large-scale forcing for
ascent, warm advection along a pseudo-stationary synoptic front
should prove responsible for bouts of showers/thunderstorms.
Southwesterly LLJ early in the period will relax before increasing
and veering to westerly after midnight. Given the orientation of
the front, from the coastal plain of Texas into northern Alabama,
low-level convergence is not expected to be particularly strong.
For this reason it appears convection will be correlated with the
wind shift. Forecast soundings do not appear sufficiently unstable
to support organized severe thunderstorms.


Low-level moisture off the Carolina coast may advance inland early
in the period such that sufficient buoyancy develops for deeper
convection. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have recently
developed off the Florida Atlantic coast and this activity may
continue to develop/move northward toward the Carolinas by sunrise.
Southern extent of LLJ will translate off the NC coast by 18z and
this may aid northward advance of aforementioned convection inland
before winds veer and main confluence zone shifts offshore.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop along this confluence zone across
south Florida, aided in part by some boundary layer heating.

..Darrow/Picca.. 12/12/2016