FXUS65 KABQ 180003 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
503 PM MST Sat Nov 17 2018
00Z TAF CYCLE
IFR conditions will become widespread tonight east of the central
mountain chain in low clouds and areas of freezing fog and freezing
drizzle thanks to persistent, moist, easterly upslope flow. A light
east wind will push through gaps in the central mountain chain,
probably carrying low clouds over SAF late tonight into early Sunday
morning as well. Models depict MVFR and IFR conditions impacting much
of the east into Sunday afternoon. The low clouds should break up by
late afternoon, only to return across parts of the far eastern
plains Sunday night.
.PREV DISCUSSION...236 PM MST Sat Nov 17 2018...
A back door cold front that pushed through eastern New Mexico today,
may bring freezing fog and freezing drizzle to the same area tonight.
The front will squeak through the gaps of the central mountain chain
this evening, and fog may even impact areas around Santa Fe. The low
clouds and fog should burn off late Sunday morning, then quieter
conditions are on tap, though it will remain chilly across the
plains. Warmer temperatures are expected for Monday and Tuesday
before a weak storm system moves over New Mexico Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system may bring a little rain to portions of
southeast New Mexico. A few more quick moving storm systems will
cross the state through the end of the week, which will bring bouts
of wind to most areas as well as a little rain and snow across
northern New Mexico.
A back door cold front has already pushed through the eastern plains
this afternoon, and should squeak through the gaps of the central
mountain chain this evening and overnight. Low clouds have been
persistent across far northeast NM and along the TX border today.
These clouds will quickly expand tonight across much of eastern NM
and perhaps into Santa Fe. Freezing fog and/or freezing drizzle will
be possible, though more confident in the former, especially along
the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Will be monitoring
closely in case there is a need for a short-fused Freezing Fog
An upper level trough will slowly move across the state on Sunday.
Temperatures will remain chilly across the east, but a warm-up is
expected to occur on Monday as upper level ridging moves in and
despite another weak front moving through the plains. Areawide, high
temperatures should be near to around 5 degrees below normal. The
ridge will crest over the area on Tuesday, though temperatures will
differ little from Monday.
Meanwhile, a Pacific low will push over southern CA early Tuesday and
slowly weaken as it shifts eastward, finally crossing NM Tuesday
night and early Wednesday. Still not much moisture associated
with this system, could be a few sprinkles here and there, but best
chances for measurable precipitation will be south and east of a line
from Ruidoso to Portales. Nonetheless, precip amounts will likely be
less than a tenth of an inch.
Another shortwave ridge will cross the state on Wednesday, but
another shortwave trough is in store for Thursday. This trough should
bring more wind back to the Land of Enchantment, and perhaps a few
showers across the north and northwest. Drier and calmer conditions
return again for Friday, then another trough may be in store for
Saturday with more wind and showers to the north.
Ventilation rates will be the main fire weather concern through the
A back door cold front has moved south and west across eastern NM
and will spill into the Rio Grande Valley tonight, but not with much
fanfare. Light snow may fall in the northeast, but widespread
freezing fog will be more likely across the eastern highlands onto
the plains, and maybe a little freezing drizzle in the northeast.
Sunday will be cool in the west and chilly in the east. Light winds
and low mixing heights will result in poor vent rates over all the
east and the northwest and central valleys.
A slow moving short wave trough will swing through NM from the north
tonight through Monday. Another back door cold front will move south
across the east Monday. But it will be dry and weak, with the east
actually warming up considerably Monday.
Short wave ridging Monday night into Tuesday with dry and cool
conditions. Widespread poor vent rates are expected. A short wave
trough will cross Tuesday night with a few showers possible on the
east central plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. Ridging will
quickly return Wednesday with Highs near normal and again mostly
poor vent rates.
Another fast moving short wave will cross NM late Thursday into
Thursday night. it appears this one will be a bit stronger and could
bring rain and higher elevation snow showers to the northwest. Highs
will remain near normal. Ventilation will improve in some areas, but
remain poor in portions of the eastern plains, and northwest and
central valleys. Winds will increase and be breezy across the higher
terrain and east.
The active pattern will continue late next week through the weekend
as another short wave trough zooms by Saturday with a little
precipitation possible over the northern mountains. It will remain
breezy to windy Friday and Saturday.
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