FXUS65 KABQ 202347 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
547 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

VFR all terminals the next 24 hrs with thickening and lowering high
to mid level cloud decks. Winds will be light thru 18Z then increase
out of the southwest with gusts below 20 kt all areas aft 21Z.



.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018...
A warming trend will continue Wednesday and Thursday with near record
warmth likely for eastern New Mexico Thursday and possibly Friday. A
weak Pacific storm system will slide northeast through northern New
Mexico Friday, bringing an increase in winds along with a chances
for mainly rain showers and a few thunderstorms to the northwest
third of the state. Cooler air will push in from the west late-day
Friday into Friday night. Breezy conditions will continue into the
weekend as another storm system approaches from the west.


Broad upper level ridge will take its time translating east through
the Rockies tonight through Thursday. Quite the warming trend is
expected Wednesday and Thursday as heights rise and light to moderate
west winds result in downsloping effects. GFS and ECWMF are in good
agreement with regard to the timing of a relatively weak short-wave
trough and Pacific cold front for Friday. Southwest winds will be on
the increase all areas Friday with mainly rain showers and a few
thunderstorms possible across the northwest third of the state. Snow
levels with this system will remain high, around 9500 feet or so
Friday afternoon.

Dry southwest flow aloft remains on track for the weekend with
Sunday looking like the breezier day. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above seasonal averages for late March. Both the GFS and
ECMWF agree that a high amplitude long-wave trough will develop over
the western U.S. late Sunday into Monday. Model solutions diverge
thereafter. Both the operational GFS and ECWMF develop a closed low
over the southwest U.S. early next week but differ significantly on
the timing and track. Uncertainty remains high this far out when
dealing with such a rogue feature but the recent uptick in deep
tropical convection across the EPAC offers hope that they're on to



A warming trend is underway with weak ridging over the region and
improving ventilation. Humidity recovery will generally be poor to
fair, but moist westerly flow will bring humidity up some over the
next couple of days. Thursday will likely be the warmest of the next
seven, with above to well above normal temperatures forecast.
Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast Thursday as well, with
winds below critical threshold.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast Friday as
well, mainly across the eastern plains where stronger downslope
winds will play a role. However, moisture advection associated with
a shortwave trough, forecast to push over Friday, may limit critical
fire weather potential across much of northeast New Mexico. The east
central plains looks to be the zone with the highest chance for
critical conditions on Friday afternoon.

Drier conditions will prevail over the weekend in the wake of the
departing shortwave trough. Winds will trend back up over the
weekend in response to a deepening lee side trough and approaching
upper level trough. Critical fire weather conditions are possible
both days across eastern New Mexico, but most likely on Sunday with
stronger winds and higher Haines values. Look for cooler and
unsettled conditions early next week, with potential for wetting
precipitation as a backdoor cold front interacts with an evolving
upper level low over the region.





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