FXUS65 KABQ 121016
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 AM MST FRI MAR 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A WELCOME...BUT SHORT-LIVED...BREAK FROM THE RECENT PARADE OF
STORMS WILL GRACE NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY...AND A RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT A NOTABLE BOOST TO TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOST LOCALES REACHING THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL STILL
BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...AND
MODERATE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST WILL HELP TO KEEP
THINGS COOL. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES
OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE STATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED EVEN MORE.

AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN TO ANOTHER PACIFIC
LOW THAT WILL TAKE A PATH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE DIVING
SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND THE PRECIPITATION FIELD TO BE
GENERATED BY THIS FEATURE. THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
WOULD FAVOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
FAIRLY HIGH DAYTIME SNOW LEVELS. AS THE SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD THE
BOOTHEEL SUNDAY NIGHT A PRONOUNCED AND VAST EASTERLY WIND FIELD
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...RATHER THAN A TRADITIONALLY SHARP
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THIS COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FAIRLY LONG-
LIVED UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH LOW LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR GOOD EASTERN PLAINS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND INCREASED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS THE DIFFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW BECOME JUXTAPOSED OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS
WILL FADE AWAY WITH IT.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CHOKE OUT ANY
RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SHOWING SOME HINTS OF A PATTERN SHIFT SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO
WHICH WAS ALSO ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO WHERE THE EUROPEAN
BOASTS ANOTHER POTENT STORM SWEEPING SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND THE GFS KEEPS A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.
HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THESE COULD QUICKLY GET RAMPED UP IF THE SCENARIO
UNFOLDS LIKE THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDINESS...GENERALLY MVFR OR ISOLATED
IFR...IN VICINITY OF NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS FAR E
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MORNING...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS FCST AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO AVIATION
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY MODERATE WEST AND NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF FCST AREA
TODAY...THOUGH LOCALLY STRONGER ON RIDGETOPS AND JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MTNS. DRY PATTERN THROUGH SAT AND PERHAPS
SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY AND
RECOVERIES MOSTLY GOOD TO LOCALLY EXCELLENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED MODERATE RECOVERIES STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITHIN THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE MIDSLOPE INVERSION.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO CONTROL WEATHER INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE 4 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARMUP AND DRYING FROM THE
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...HUMIDITY READINGS WILL CRASH AND EXPECT A FEW
TEENS FOR MINIMUMS ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WELL TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. MINIMUM RH VALUES IN TEENS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE MORE IN EVIDENCE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PERHAPS SE AREAS. VENTILATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS DUE TO THE
LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH POOR AND FAIR CATEGORIES ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS. BETTER WINDS AND MIXING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
MUCH HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE INVERSION
BREAKS EARLY SO VENTILATION WILL BE IMPROVED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS.

WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND RAIN STILL LOOKS
FAIRLY LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY...SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION SINCE THE COMPUTER FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL VARYING THE
TRACK A BIT WITH EACH RUN. AS OF RIGHT NOW...NORTHERN...EASTERN AND
PERHAPS CENTRAL AREAS ARE FAVORED BUT VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT MAY
AID IN THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW IS MORE WESTWARD THEN THE MODERATELY COOLER AND MOIST AIR FOUND
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD BE PULLED FARTHER TOWARDS THE WEST.
DRIER TREND FOLLOWING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS
SCENARIO LESS LIKELY THAN IS THE CASE FOR THIS LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 51 25 58 32 / 0 0 0 20
DULCE........................... 43 13 49 18 / 0 0 0 20
CUBA............................ 44 13 48 19 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 51 19 57 26 / 0 0 0 20
EL MORRO........................ 48 20 54 23 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 50 16 58 25 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 51 20 60 25 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 61 27 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 41 7 46 15 / 0 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 23 51 26 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 51 21 55 25 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 9 47 20 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 36 8 39 19 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 9 42 20 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 45 15 51 24 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 54 15 59 27 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 49 23 56 27 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 25 58 29 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 53 28 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 30 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 24 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 25 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 23 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 28 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 60 29 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 22 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 19 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 24 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 27 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 29 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 25 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 50 19 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 52 20 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 22 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 53 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 53 25 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 58 25 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 27 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 24 67 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 58 30 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 59 28 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 26 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 29 71 34 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 61 30 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 59 23 65 29 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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