Location:  
MeteoStar

FXUS65 KABQ 260915
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
315 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
One short wave trough is exiting the state early this morning, while
another weak short wave trough will zip across NM this afternoon from
the northwest. The backdoor cold front has made it west to the
Continental Divide. It will be much cooler in the east today and
showers and thunderstorms will impact about half of the forecast
area. Dry and warmer weather returns Thursday through the weekend.
More active weather may return next week, with the models at odds as
to whether a tropical disturbance impacts the Southwest U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We have cancelled the wind advisory for the Middle Rio Grande Valley.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are focused on east central NM and
Chaves CO early this morning. This precipitation should exit the
state by mid morning as the associated short wave trough departs.
More showers and thunderstorms will develop later this morning
through the afternoon, favoring the mountains and southeast quarter
of our forecast area. The back door cold front has made it west to
the Divide. This means a cooler day today, especially in the east
where highs will be 25 to 35 or more degrees cooler than Tuesday.
Around 15 degrees of cooling is forecast for the Rio Grande Valley
and about 5 degrees lower in the west.

Tonight will be dry, aside from a possible shower this evening over
the Upper Gila Region of the Southwest Mountains. It will be cool to
chilly overnight.

Thursday through Sunday will be dry and generally warmer as high
pressure builds to our west. There will be a back door cold front
entering the northeast Friday and spreading south and west Friday
night. This will bring temporary cooling to mostly the northeast
Friday and southeast Saturday.

The area of high pressure will shift east of NM Sunday and beyond
allowing a southerly flow of more moist air into NM. To make it
interesting, there is tropical storm Rosa over the southeast Pacific.
It will become a hurricane as it moves north. Models have been all
over the place with the track of Rosa. The GFS consistently brought
it into the Southwest U.S., while the European kept it offshore. Well
today they have flip-flopped. But the GFS still brings more moisture
from it into NM, as the ECMWF tracks the bulk of the moisture to our
west. Little confidence in the forecast for the first half of next
week, other than we should see a return of some precipitation. How
much is the big question.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of Tuesday's back door cold front a significant increase
in humidities is expected today, except in spots west of the
continental divide and across the northeast sliver of the state. An
upper level trough that brought showers and thunderstorms to New
Mexico Tuesday evening and last night will shift eastward into Texas
this morning, but another shortwave trough will cross from the
northwest this afternoon with another round of scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms across north central and central areas,
and scattered to numerous activity across southern areas. High
temperatures today will generally fall a few to around 20 degrees
from Tuesday's readings, except up to 38 degrees across parts of the
southeast plains. Widespread poor ventilation is expected east of
the continental divide and along and south of I-40, including Santa
Fe and Las Vegas.

A ridge of high pressure will build west of NM Thursday and Friday,
bringing a return to dry weather and warmer temperatures. An
exception will be Friday across northeast and east central areas,
where temperatures are expected to fall with a dry back door cold
front. A mixed bag of ventilations are expected, but overall they
will improve compared to today's widespread poor readings.

This weekend the ridge of high pressure will weaken while passing
eastward over NM. High temperatures will vary from near normal
across parts of the southeast up to around 9 degrees above normal
elsewhere.

Early next week an upper level trough digging into the western US is
forecast to draw subtropical moisture northward over the southwest
US with Showers and thunderstorms developing over NM and especially
AZ. Remnant moisture and instability from Tropical Storm (soon to be
Hurricane) Rosa in the eastern Pacific is expected to be in this
mix, but models still differ on how much of Rosa's moisture will
reach NM. Regardless of what happens with Rosa, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms is forecast to increase Monday and
Tuesday, especially from the east slopes of the central mountain
chain westward.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level trough crossing slowly aloft will continue to trigger
scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight through
Wednesday along and east of the continental divide, except for
periods of numerous cells across southern and eastern parts of the
forecast area. Meanwhile, moist easterly low-level flow will persist
in the wake of a back door cold front that pushed into western NM
Tuesday evening. Areas of low clouds should produce MVFR and locally
IFR conditions along the east slopes of the central mountain chain,
across the east central and southeast plains, and to a lesser extent
along the east slopes of the western mountains for the remainder of
tonight into Wednesday morning. Wednesday night looks less active as
the upper level trough exits eastward and drier air moves over the
state from the northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 77 41 82 42 / 10 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 71 32 76 33 / 20 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 67 41 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 76 34 81 35 / 10 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 71 32 77 33 / 10 5 0 0
Grants.......................... 71 37 79 37 / 20 5 0 0
Quemado......................... 71 41 77 42 / 10 5 0 0
Glenwood........................ 79 50 84 52 / 20 10 5 5
Chama........................... 65 32 71 34 / 20 5 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 65 45 75 46 / 20 5 0 0
Pecos........................... 59 43 75 46 / 20 5 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 64 36 73 39 / 30 5 0 0
Red River....................... 55 33 65 36 / 40 5 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 60 29 71 30 / 30 5 0 0
Taos............................ 67 34 76 36 / 20 0 0 0
Mora............................ 60 37 75 40 / 30 5 0 0
Espanola........................ 70 44 80 44 / 20 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 64 44 75 46 / 20 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 66 43 78 44 / 10 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 51 80 53 / 20 5 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 70 52 82 53 / 20 5 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 71 51 84 51 / 20 5 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 50 83 51 / 20 5 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 71 48 84 46 / 20 5 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 69 50 83 51 / 20 5 0 0
Socorro......................... 72 51 82 54 / 40 5 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 43 75 45 / 30 5 0 0
Tijeras......................... 63 44 77 45 / 20 5 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 61 41 78 41 / 20 5 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 57 42 75 45 / 20 5 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 61 45 76 48 / 40 5 0 5
Carrizozo....................... 66 47 76 53 / 30 10 5 5
Ruidoso......................... 54 41 71 47 / 60 10 5 5
Capulin......................... 63 37 76 44 / 10 5 0 0
Raton........................... 66 36 79 42 / 10 0 0 0
Springer........................ 67 38 81 43 / 10 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 59 39 77 43 / 20 5 0 0
Clayton......................... 64 44 80 49 / 5 5 0 0
Roy............................. 62 40 79 47 / 10 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 66 47 83 51 / 20 5 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 62 47 83 52 / 20 5 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 63 46 82 53 / 30 5 0 0
Clovis.......................... 58 45 78 52 / 80 10 0 0
Portales........................ 57 46 78 52 / 80 10 0 5
Fort Sumner..................... 59 45 81 51 / 70 5 0 0
Roswell......................... 59 49 81 55 / 60 10 0 5
Picacho......................... 54 45 78 53 / 50 10 5 5
Elk............................. 52 43 75 51 / 60 10 5 5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

40
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page