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FXUS65 KABQ 152222
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
422 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The best threat for showers and thunderstorms through mid-evening
will be across the northeast quadrant of the state. In fact, a few
of the storms may be strong to severe in nature. Meanwhile, lighter
activity will be focused over west central and central New Mexico,
where gusty outflow winds are likely. Expect an uptick in activity
for Sunday and Monday across northern and central New Mexico, with
high temperatures a few degrees below mid-June normals. There will
be another round of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of
the northeast and east central plains on Monday, along with locally
heavy rainfall. Drier air will infiltrate the state during the mid-
to late work week period, resulting in lower precipitation chances.
Locales along and east of the Sangres will have the best chances.
Given a drier air mass, temperatures should slowly climb closer to
seasonal normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GOES-16 water vapor loop and RAP40 analysis indicate an upr level
shortwave slowly making its way toward northeast New Mexico. This
feature along with a backdoor surface boundary will be the primary
focus for convective initiation, with activity migrating eastward.
The current environment over the northeast-east central plains has
MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg with substantial CIN along the OK
border. Incoming solar has allowed for steep low-level lapse rates,
and this should aid in eroding the capping inversion at 700-650 mb.
By the time activity migrates into this region, storms will enter a
sufficiently favorable environment for strong updrafts. Storms will
be slow moving due to weak 850-300mb steering flow, and will likely
favor clusters as marginal 0-6km bulk shear in northeast NM shifts
eastward out of the CWFA. With all this said, primary risks will be
large hail and locally strong wind gusts as well as heavy rainfall.
Meanwhile, across west central NM where low-level moisture is more
limited, sufficient instability along with DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg
will support gusty and erratic outflow winds through sunset. There
is already evidence of outflow boundaries on the KABX radar.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected for Sunday
with slightly higher coverage of precip in central/western NM. The
threat for severe weather across the east will be dampened. This is
expected to change for Monday as return flow tries to setup. Expect
instability to increase over the ern plains, especially across the
northeast where the GFS20 suggests over 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE coupled
with 20-30kts of bulk shear. It appears the main threats will once
again by large hail and damaging winds.

An upr low will get pinched off from main flow and position itself
west of NM on Tuesday. Otherwise, expect northwest flow to allow a
shortwave to walk through southern CO and into north-central and
northeast NM. Scattered to locally numerous storms will be favored
for the Sangres and areas eastward along the Colorado border. Pcpn
chances should lower starting Wed as drier air begins to invade the
region within a northwest flow pattern. For later in the work week,
west-east flow develops from northern CA toward the central Rockies
as a couple of storm systems migrate across the PacNW to the Great
Lakes region. This could result in increased winds for parts of NM,
particularly across the north. DPorter

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level trough and associated cold front will cross into
northeast New Mexico into the overnight hours, adding moisture and
returning Haines values back to moderate levels. Showers/storms are
expected to continue into the late evening hours and will make a
return tomorrow afternoon. Storms are expected to be a mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms across the west. Another low pressure system
will cross the state by Monday, creating more of a wetting rainfall
pattern.

By mid-week, westerlies will dominate, leading to a warmer, drier
pattern that will start to feel more like June. Towards the end of
the week, high Haines values across the state and above normal temps
may lean towards a more widespread critical fire weather pattern. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A round of showers of thunderstorms is expected to develop early
this afternoon through the evening hours across the northern portion
of the state, with the main concerns being lightning, strong and
erratic thunderstorm wind gusts, and hail. KSAF, KLVS, and KTCC are
the most likely to be impacted by thunderstorms; however, confidence
is on the lower end for these sites. Isolated high-based showers and
thunderstorms in the west may bring gusty, erratic winds. Low clouds
are possible along the OK-TX border tonight, but confidence is low
at this time. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 53 88 56 86 / 10 5 5 20
Dulce........................... 43 81 47 80 / 10 10 10 30
Cuba............................ 50 82 52 80 / 10 20 10 30
Gallup.......................... 47 84 49 83 / 10 10 20 20
El Morro........................ 46 81 48 79 / 20 20 20 20
Grants.......................... 47 83 50 81 / 20 20 20 20
Quemado......................... 52 82 52 81 / 10 20 20 10
Glenwood........................ 58 91 59 89 / 0 10 5 0
Chama........................... 42 75 45 75 / 10 30 20 50
Los Alamos...................... 54 76 57 76 / 20 40 40 50
Pecos........................... 51 77 54 77 / 20 30 30 50
Cerro/Questa.................... 45 73 48 74 / 30 50 40 60
Red River....................... 39 64 42 65 / 40 70 50 70
Angel Fire...................... 36 68 37 68 / 30 70 60 70
Taos............................ 43 78 47 78 / 30 40 30 40
Mora............................ 45 73 47 74 / 30 50 50 70
Espanola........................ 52 84 56 83 / 20 20 30 30
Santa Fe........................ 54 77 57 78 / 20 20 30 30
Santa Fe Airport................ 52 81 56 82 / 20 20 20 20
Albuquerque Foothills........... 59 86 62 87 / 20 20 20 10
Albuquerque Heights............. 60 87 64 88 / 20 10 20 10
Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 88 60 89 / 20 10 20 10
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 87 61 88 / 20 10 20 10
Los Lunas....................... 56 88 60 88 / 20 10 20 5
Rio Rancho...................... 58 87 62 88 / 20 10 20 10
Socorro......................... 61 91 63 93 / 10 10 10 5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 79 57 80 / 20 20 20 20
Tijeras......................... 53 83 56 85 / 20 20 20 20
Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 83 51 85 / 10 20 20 30
Clines Corners.................. 50 78 53 79 / 10 20 20 30
Gran Quivira.................... 53 83 55 85 / 10 10 10 10
Carrizozo....................... 58 87 60 89 / 10 10 5 0
Ruidoso......................... 51 80 53 82 / 5 20 20 10
Capulin......................... 46 71 48 75 / 60 70 60 70
Raton........................... 46 76 47 78 / 40 70 60 60
Springer........................ 47 75 47 75 / 30 50 60 60
Las Vegas....................... 46 75 48 77 / 20 50 40 50
Clayton......................... 53 76 54 81 / 60 50 30 40
Roy............................. 51 76 52 78 / 30 50 60 40
Conchas......................... 57 85 58 89 / 20 30 40 30
Santa Rosa...................... 56 86 57 88 / 10 20 30 30
Tucumcari....................... 58 86 59 90 / 20 20 30 30
Clovis.......................... 59 85 60 89 / 10 20 20 20
Portales........................ 59 88 61 92 / 10 10 10 20
Fort Sumner..................... 60 87 61 91 / 10 20 30 20
Roswell......................... 62 93 63 97 / 0 10 5 0
Picacho......................... 58 85 60 92 / 0 20 20 5
Elk............................. 55 83 56 90 / 0 20 20 5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

46/31
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