FXUS65 KABQ 061647 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1047 AM MDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.UPDATE...
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM CURRY COUNTY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DROPPED SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN CURRY COUNTY.
COLD FRONT HAS BACKED OUT OF NEW MEXICO...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP THAT FAR SOUTH UNTIL POSSIBLY THIS EVENING...WHEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

44

&&

.DISCUSSION...
300 AM MDT SAT SEP 6 2008...DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
ALONG AND BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM KRTN-KCQC-KCVN AS
OF THIS WRITING. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE THIS
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. BOUNDARY
DROPS SOUTHWARD AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS UPPER AIR PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERLY. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. NAM
DEFINITELY BRINGS SURFACE BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH SUNDAY.
HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS NAM POP GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL
MOSTLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES EAST AND SOUTH. BOTH NAM AND GFS SLOWER
WITH MONDAY/S STRONGER SURFACE FRONT BUT TRENDS REMAIN
SIMILAR...WITH HIGHER POPS EAST AND SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...THEREAFTER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM KCQC TO
JUST SOUTH OF KCVS. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE FORMED
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...WITH VISIBILITIES LOCALLY DROPPING TO 2 MILES
OR LESS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD ERODE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A
QUIET AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NE NM...OR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IF THESE
STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NE NM BY SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...AND LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POOR TO
MODERATE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ANTICIPATED. ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SEVERAL SURFACE FRONTS WILL REPLENISH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. EACH SUCCESSIVE FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN A LITTLE FURTHER. THE
BIGGEST PUSH LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER A MODERATE PUSH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
WITH EACH FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE
MARGINAL...THUS...WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
AN INCREASE IN WET/DRY STORMS IS POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED NORTH FROM MEXICO.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










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