FXUS65 KABQ 051009
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
309 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A CUT OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL WOBBLE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE OPENING INTO A TROUGH AND
EXITING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SPEED MAXIMUM ALOFT ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL INTENSITY OVER NW NM TONIGHT ENHANCING THE
DYNAMICS FOR PRECIPITATION AS SW WINDS ALOFT OVERRUN SOMEWHAT
MOIST SE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE NW HIGHLANDS AND NW
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MONDAY...THE FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE SANGRES AND NE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. LATER FORECASTERS WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THESE
AREAS. ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END SOMETIME
TUESDAY ACROSS NE NM AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD CORE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN
AREAS AND PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST.

GFS...ECMWF AND NOW THE CANADIAN MODEL ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CA AND BAJA COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN HEAD
EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW MAY BE BROAD
ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO NOW AGREE BETTER ON AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. IT SHOULD DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE WITH COOL AIR
FUNNELING INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NM FROM THE WEST.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCALIZED
OCCURRENCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL AND NW
NM. AVIATION HAZARDS INCLUDE OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS N OF
INTERSTATE 40. A FEW -SHRA/-SHSN ARE POSSIBLE N OF A LINE FROM KGUP
TO KLVS. GUSTY E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT...GUSTS TO 30 OR
35KTS...THROUGH CANYONS AND LOWER PASSES OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN INTO
MAINLY THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH PEAK SPEEDS MOST
LIKELY THIS MORNING AND DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY E TO SE WINDS THROUGH CANYONS OF
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND INTO BERNALILLO...VALENCIA AND SOCORRO
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10
AND 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. VENTILATION THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY POOR TO FAIR...EXCEPT MON AFTN MAY BRING
SOME GOOD TO VERY GOOD LEVELS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN THE
WEST AND NORTH OF SAME IN THE EAST.

AN UPPER LOW EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS COLORADO WILL SPLIT TODAY
LEAVING A REMNANT LOW OVER UT TO W CO. THE LATTER WILL DEEPEN A BIT
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME INCREASE IN SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST AND N CENTRAL AREAS TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST STILL INDICATED TO
DROP SE INTO NW MEXICO SKIRTING MOST OF NEW MEXICO LEAVING THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN BORDER REGION.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH VENTILATION GENERALLY RANGING FROM POOR TO FAIR WITH BEST
DAYS FOR GOOD VENTILATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 46 24 43 18 / 20 30 20 10
DULCE........................... 40 16 41 11 / 20 50 30 20
CUBA............................ 41 21 42 19 / 10 20 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 45 17 44 13 / 10 10 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 41 19 41 18 / 10 10 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 40 18 39 15 / 10 10 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 47 21 44 20 / 5 0 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 54 21 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 35 8 37 9 / 40 60 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 39 22 41 22 / 10 20 10 20
PECOS........................... 37 18 39 19 / 10 10 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 36 9 36 9 / 20 20 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 29 12 31 11 / 30 20 30 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 10 34 9 / 40 20 20 30
TAOS............................ 40 17 39 15 / 10 10 10 20
MORA............................ 33 16 38 15 / 10 10 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 46 22 48 21 / 10 10 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 39 21 40 20 / 10 10 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 22 43 21 / 10 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 46 27 48 29 / 10 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 47 28 48 28 / 10 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 28 51 29 / 10 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 49 27 51 27 / 5 5 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 50 25 50 24 / 5 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 27 49 27 / 10 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 51 28 53 28 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 43 21 45 22 / 10 10 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 46 23 51 24 / 10 5 5 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 41 22 43 23 / 5 5 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 19 39 20 / 5 5 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 43 23 44 24 / 10 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 49 25 49 25 / 5 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 40 24 45 27 / 10 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 35 18 39 17 / 0 10 5 30
RATON........................... 40 17 47 17 / 5 10 5 30
SPRINGER........................ 40 18 46 20 / 0 0 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 16 43 18 / 5 5 5 20
CLAYTON......................... 41 21 47 23 / 0 0 5 20
ROY............................. 39 22 47 23 / 0 0 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 45 23 54 27 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 23 54 28 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 22 54 26 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 44 23 51 27 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 45 24 53 27 / 0 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 50 24 58 27 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 47 27 56 31 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 44 25 54 28 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 40 24 51 29 / 0 0 0 5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44/01


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