FXUS63 KABR 161738 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1138 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1048 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

Winds starting to mix out this morning out of the west under
mostly sunny skies. This along with the bare ground should allow
for warmer temperatures. Adjusted temperatures up a few degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

Upper ridging and sfc high pressure will build in over the Plains
today. While mixing will be minimal under the high, still expect
highs to climb into the 40s to low 50s, though a few degrees cooler
than the last couple of days. Mixing will increase again on Monday
ahead of the next dry front. Bumped temps up a few degrees on Monday
and Tuesday to bring them more in line with the warmer models versus
the blends. However, more cloud cover on Tuesday with an upper
trough may end up affecting temps.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

Upper flow will become more zonal or trough-influenced by mid week.
Shortwave activity will also increase with a concurrent increase in
clouds and moisture. As a sfc front moves through the Plains on
Wednesday, some light precip will be possible across the region.
Models have not been consistent on timing or extent, but with
forecast highs still in the 40s to low 50s precip will likely be
rain during the day with a mix in the early and late hours of the

Northwest flow from Wed night into Thursday will bring cooler air
and gustier winds on caa. Highs will still be above average, but
will fall into the lower 30s in eastern portions of the forecast
area. The upper flow will be very transient as an upper ridge pops
in on Friday before it is suppressed by an upper trough for the
weekend. This broad upper trough will drag temps down toward
average. However, mainly dry conditions will persist.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected for all locations through tonight and




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