FXUS63 KABR 210212 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
912 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Light rain was occurring at Pierre this evening where a large
shield of radar echoes were streaming northwest across southwest
and central sd. This will slowly build northeast through the night
and into Tuesday as the upper level lift expands. Current weather
and pops look good.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

A deep upper level trough over the four corners region will
gradually track across the central and northern plains through the
short term. The upper level trough, along with the surface low
pressure will bring widespread rainfall and gusty easterly to the
CWA. Showers are currently moving north-northwestward across
southern South Dakota. As of now, the rainfall is only impacting our
far southwestern CWA, or the Murdo/Presho area. Most models suggest
the pcpn will remain west of the James River valley tonight. As the
500 mb low moves into the central plains Tuesday morning, the pcpn
should push into the eastern CWA. Half KM winds are rather strong on
Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts near 45 mph can be
expected. With these expected winds, will issue a wind advisory for
the entire CWA. The winds should diminish Tuesday night as the 500
mb low will be near the region.

With the eastern CWA seeing a longer period of dry conditions, along
with a bit faster storm progression, QPF amounts have been lowered
for this event. As of now, a general inch to 1.25 inches are
possible. Areas along and west of the Missouri River will likely see
higher amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Upper level low pressure will be over the Northern Plains at the
beginning of the period, with the surface low centered over
southeast South Dakota/northeast Nebraska. Rainfall will be ongoing,
and looks to continue off and on through the day Wednesday before
the system lifts off to the northeast. Will see a period of upper
level ridging late Wednesday night into the day Thursday, before
another upper and surface low swing over the region, bringing
another chance for rain Thursday night into Friday morning. Will see
another respite in the precipitation Friday night and Saturday
before yet another system moves in, bringing a return to wet
conditions Saturday night into the day Monday. There will be a few
periods during the extended when some weak instability sets up, so
cannot rule out a few thunderstorms, but at this time, no severe
weather is expected. Rainfall amounts are uncertain at this time,
but could see upwards of one quarter to one half inch with each of
the first two systems, with lesser amounts late in the weekend into
early next week.

The coolest day of the period will be Wednesday, with highs mainly
in the 50s. 60s will be common through the rest of the period.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

VFR conditions prevail for the first part of the TAF period.
Showers moving into the region in the morning hours will bring
MVFR conditions for all airfields. KPIR may see some IFR cigs near
the end of the TAF period.


SD...Wind Advisory from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ Tuesday to 1 AM CDT
/midnight MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-

MN...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ039-



LONG TERM...Parkin
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