FXUS63 KABR 050529 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1129 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR AFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AS OF 21Z...THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAVE PLAGUED THE REGION...ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING. MOST OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SD IS
UNDER CLEAR SKIS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S. EXPECT SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER BELIEVE THEY WILL REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT UNDER A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING AREAS
OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THIS CWA.
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...WILL EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.

IF THE STRATUS DOES REDEVELOP/EXPAND LATER TONIGHT...THEN THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THEY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING DUE TO LIGHT MIXING WINDS. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THEN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLIER THE WHAT SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICTING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
40S...AND LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THE 30S...AND
PERHAPS THE 40S. WITH LIMITED LLM...EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WITH ONLY A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THEN
DROP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS OUT OF
CANADA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...THEN BROADENS OUT FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH GETS PUSHED EAST AS A
DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH DROPS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...REMAINING DOMINANT UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE IN WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...AND WHAT IS THERE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE PERIODS OF COLDER...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS -9 TO -13 DEGREE H85 AIR MOVES
IN...KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS. WILL SEE A
BIT OF A REBOUND BACK TO THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY AS H85 TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
-10 TO -18 DEGREE RANGE. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL AS GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF SNOW COVER. H85 TEMPS SLOWLY RISE BACK TO
NEAR ZERO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA BACK INTO THE 30S...MAYBE EVEN LOWER 40S WEST RIVER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WIDE
SWATH OF STRATUS STRETCHES FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER TO WESTERN MN.
KPIR/KMBG ARE BOTH ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS STRATUS. FOR NOW
JUST HAVE KPIR WITH A BRIEF TEMPO FOR IFR FOG BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED IF THE STRATUS SPREADS SOUTH. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE
VFR BY 18Z SUNDAY...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN



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