FXUS63 KABR 202014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Surface high pressure will slide off to the east tonight as an
elongated low pressure system currently over the Rockies begins to
intensify and push eastward. By late Thursday afternoon, the low
will be centered over Colorado with a boundary extending
northeastward to eastern North Dakota. Conditions will remain dry
during this time period, with southerly flow bringing warmer air up
into the region. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, with highs on
Thursday in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The long term will characterized as a fairly active period. Positive
tilt western conus mid level trof will come out in pieces through
the period. First chunk of energy comes out Friday into Friday
night. There is good shear/instability, particularly along and east
of the I29 corridor, so SPC slight risk looks good for now. After
Friday night, the entire mean frontal boundary slides a bit
further east, taking the highest amounts of available energy with
it, thus severe weather looks fairly minimal beyond about 60 to 72

Severals waves of energy aloft and a nearly stationary front will
set up the potential for a couple periods of heavy rain, especially
across the eastern CWA. The first event should be Saturday night
into Sunday. The second event should occur Sunday night into
Monday, but may be slightly displaced southeast of the first heavy
rain band.

As for temperatures, they will likely start out above normal early
in the period, but then trend to below normal over the weekend as
frontal boundary continues to sink south.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through midday
Thursday. There is the potential for some wind shear at around the
2K foot level late tonight into early Thursday morning.




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