FXUS63 KABR 250533 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1233 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Aviation discussion updated below for 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are planned.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Storm currently exiting the region will continue to move southeast
and away from the region this evening. The rest of the very short
term forecast offers little in the way of impacts as skies should be
mostly clear. Tonight's lows may slip a little under model blend
guidance given slackening wins and clearing skies. Went with more
of a consensus MOS forecast. For Wednesday nudged model blend
guidance up a notch given progged H85 temps and southwest boundary
layer breezes. We've been overachieving on temperatures recently so
that lends well with trending temps up.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The long term portion of the forecast will be mostly made up of
relatively quiet weather conditions...rather spring like for a
change. On Thursday, an upper level trough will quickly move through
delivering a shot of some rather breezy northerly winds and keeping
temps on the relatively cooler side, but dry conditions should
prevail for the most part. Thursday looks to be the coolest day too
in the extended. An upper ridge is then expected to build into the
northern plains the remainder of the week through the weekend. Temps
should respond nicely and warm to at or above seasonal normals for
late April. Late in the period, the upper ridge is progged to break
down as upper level energy works back into the region. Pcpn chances
return to the forecast Monday into Tuesday. Instability values show
signs of an uptick by late Monday to warrant the addition of thunder
into the forecast, especially for our eastern cwa at that time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period.




LONG TERM...Vipond
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