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FXUS63 KABR 240210 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
910 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Clouds will continue to increase from the southwest through the
night as steady southeast breezes remain. Thus, may bump lows up
a little tonight for the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Southerly winds will persist overnight along with weak warm air
advection. This will allow temps to stay up a bit, and not fall off
as far as they did this morning. Although, it appears the eastern
CWA will see light winds well into the evening and have enough time
to still drop into the 20s before the stronger south winds kick in
towards early morning. Dropped lows a few degrees across the eastern
counties, especially over west central MN.

On Wednesday, models still showing shortwave energy drifting
eastward across the Dakotas. Models have slowed precip onset just a
bit, and it now appears areas along and west of the James River will
have chances for precip prior to 00Z. Amounts are still expected to
be a quarter inch or less for most areas. Areal coverage is still in
question, and several hi-res solutions suggest it may be fairly
scant for northern areas. For now, tried to focus highest POPs
across the southwest CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

A fairly active extended forecast begins with a warm/above 0C
temperature profile will keep precipitation in liquid form Wednesday
night into Thursday morning as a shortwave trough moves through the
Northern Plains. Models are in general agreement about placing a
secondary shortwave across far northeastern Montana around 06z
Friday, but this feature either dives southeast across South Dakota
or slides east towards northern Minnesota. In the former scenario,
rain showers would once again affect the eastern CWA Thursday night
into Friday morning (20-40% POPs currently in the forecast). In any
case, a more potent and agreed-upon-among-models shortwave looks to
impact the area Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning with rain,
and then northwest winds, potentially strong, behind the cold front
on Sunday. Temperatures will remain generally seasonable through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

VFR conditions should prevail over the entire TAF period. LLWS is
expected for KMBG/KPIR for the overnight period. Kept -SHRA out of
the TAF's, however some precip is expected near or at the end of
TAF period. Conditions should remain VFR within any -SHRA.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...ALD
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