FXUS63 KABR 142016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT


A VORT MAX HAS PARKED ITSELF OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATES STRONGEST INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS OVER
CLARK COUNTY. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MN
THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND CUTS THROUGH MN. ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL AMOUNTS
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL WILL CAUSE SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS TO RISE
TO FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EAST TO THE BIG SIOUX.

WITH THE ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NORMS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN H5 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH A PACIFIC LOW MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES IT WILL HAVE A BIG EFFECT
ON NEXT WEEK ENDS WEATHER. LEADING UP TO THE WEEK END IT APPEARS
THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AND TEMPERATURES MAY WELL GO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THIS FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC ENERGY ALOFT HAS GONE NORTH OF THE RIDGE BUT SOME AMOUNT
DIVES SOUTH AND IS DIGGING IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE ECMWF IS
A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A WEAKER TROUGH WHILE THE GFS DIGS
A DEEPER TROUGH AND CLOSES OFF A LOW CENTER OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA A PACIFIC RIDGE REBUILDS
IN THE WEST. THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MAY BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY PROBABILITIES
BEGIN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THIS PERIOD WILL SHORTEN IN DURATION AND DEPENDING ON MODEL THAT
FINALLY WINS OUT IT MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AS WELL.




&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...KEEFE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN



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