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FXUS63 KABR 180543 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1143 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 927 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Light snow holding on in central sd this evening. Thus, kept high
pops in this region through midnight. Updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 611 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Updated for the expiration of the advisory and warning.

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Was able to cancel the Winter Storm Warning for Corson County. From
earlier phone conversations and webcams, finger drifting still
continues but overall impacts are minimal at this time. Will leave
the rest of the headlines as is for now. Highest snowfall report so
far has been an estimated 8-10" over western Dewey County. High
pressure centered over northern British Columbia, Alberta, and
Saskatchewan will be able to sink over ND by the end of the day
Monday, with a ridge extending across our forecast area. Plenty of
moisture remains below 900mb, and around 600mb, leading to a mostly
cloudy sky with a few peaks of the sun over northeastern counties
this afternoon.

With the surface trough lingering northwest to southeast across
South Dakota into Monday, and a broad trough over much of the
western and central U.S. pushing an embedded wave across Monday
morning, it will be difficult to get rid of precipitation all
together. Will keep slight chance pops/flurries mainly west river
through Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Broad upper troughing and colder than normal air at the sfc will
dominate the extended. There are two chances for some additional
light snow. Both of these systems will produce highest accumulations
of 1 to 4 inches in the southern and eastern portions of the
forecast area. The first wave will roll through late Tuesday/early
Wednesday, while the second is slated for Friday/Friday night. With
sfc high pressure and associated drier air in the wings most of the
week, will need to see how the drier air may affect final snow
amount forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Mainly VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight.
Ceilings are expected to become lower on Monday mainly in the
MVFR/low VFR range at all airports.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr
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