FXUS61 KAKQ 162115
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
415 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018
An upper level low pressure system will push off the coast this
evening. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday,
bringing dry conditions to the local area. The next area of low
pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday and brings
another round of rain Thursday afternoon into early Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...
Vertically stacked/occluded lo pres will slowly reach the coast
this evening then move offshore overnight. Two lingering areas
of SHRAs attm...one will be moving to the ern shore in the next
couple of hours...then the trailing area (over the wrn Piedmont)
will be sliding ESE through central VA toward SE VA. QPF will
remain spotty and light and clouds will remain widespread. WNW
winds will begin to usher in cooler air this evening w/
temperatures falling through the 40s. Beginning to clear out
mainly after midnight. Lows mainly in the m-u30s...except around
40F right along the Bay/ocean in ern VA and NE NC.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Sunday...
Models in good agreement that a welcome dry pattern will prevail
both Mon/Tue. Sfc lo pres will be pushing off the New England
coast Mon morning with sfc hi pres over the Midwest. CAA will
be offset by downsloping (WNW winds gusty at times) so highs
will be mild on Mon...ranging from the mid 50s across the N and
NW to the l60s SE under a mainly sunny sky. Secondary cold
front drops through the region Mon night and may lead to a few
clouds...mainly across the ern shore but generally SKC overall.
Turning colder Mon night w/ lows in the u20s-around 30F W to
the mid 30s right along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Sfc hi pres
settles over the region Tue/Tue night w/ clear and dry
conditions prevailing. Cooler but seasonable Tue with highs
mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW). Clear with lows
from the m-u20s inland to lower 30s SE VA-NE NC coastal areas Tue
night. Hi pres shifts offshore by Wed and dry/seasonable wx will
continue. Highs Wed in the u40s N and NW to the l50s S.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Sunday...
Hi pres drifts farther off the coast Wed night while strong
amplification of trough aloft begins through the Plains states.
That trough will be shifting E through Fri. Lo pres moving
through the lower MS Valley Thu...tracks NE through the ern OH
Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri.
Timing is fairly consistent over the past few runs of the models
(maybe a touch faster now). Consensus shows deep layered SSW
flow resulting in quick/significant increase in moisture NE from
the SE states beginning Thu morning (PoPs to 60-90% here by Thu
evening)...then spreading toward the NE CONUS Fri. Another
period of moderate/heavy RA possible...esp Thu
evening/night...then the trailing upper level trough crosses the
region late Fri/Fri night may bring additional SCT pcpn. Drying
out and cool for the weekend as the lo pres departs into the
far nrn Atlantic.
Lows Wed night in the 30s...except l40s at the coast in ern VA-
NE NC. Highs Thu in the l-m50s N and W to the l60s in SE VA-NE
NC. Mild Thu night w/ lows Thu night in the m-u40s W to the
m50s in E and SE. Highs Fri in the u50s to l60s. Lows Fri night
from the u30s W to the l40s E. Highs Highs Sat and Sun in the
u40s N and W to the m50s SE.
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM EST Sunday...
Generally MVFR conditions (CIGS) w/ occasional IFR into tonight
as lo pres is slow to track over then E and off the coast. An
area of SHRAs will be easing E to the coast through about
00-02Z/17. Winds WSW gusty to 20 kt becoming NW. Drier air
with improving conditions arrive overnight into Mon and will
then persist through Wed. Somewhat breezy WNW winds during the
day Mon with gusts to ~20 kt possible. Lo pres approaches from
the SW Thu and will likely bring another round of flight
restrictions beginning later Thursday and continuing in Fri.
As of 410 PM EST Sunday...
Late this aftn, low pressure was just off the NJ coast. Winds
were WNW 10-20 knots with a few gusts at elevated sites to 25
kt. Waves were 1-3 ft and seas were 4-7 ft.
Expect winds to become NW everywhere at 10-20 kt with gusts to
25 kt later this evening into Mon morning, as the low moves
away to the NE and sfc high pressure starts to build in fm the
WNW. Winds turn more westerly and decrease to 10-15 knots
during the day on Mon. Winds then turn back to the NW and
increase to 15-25 kt over most of the waters for Mon night into
Tue morning, due to an upper trough moving from SE Canada to
New England, which will allow a shot of colder air to move into
the Mid Atlc. Model soundings show the potential for gusts to
near 30 knots Mon night into Tue morning, mainly over the nrn
ocean zones (along with solid SCA conditions over much of the
area). Winds finally diminish over the waters Tue aftn/night,
as an area of high pressure moves into and over the area fm the
WNW. Altho winds will weaken and waves/seas will subside during
Mon, have issued SCA's for most of the waters into early Tue
aftn/thru Tue aftn due to increase in winds/waves/seas Mon
night. High pressure will slide off the coast during Wed.
As of 325 PM EST Sunday...
Flood warning has been cancelled at Farmville while remaining in
effect for Bremo Bluff, Lawrenceville, Richmond-Westham and the
Locks. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer
to the latest FLS product for site-specific details.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658.
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