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FXUS61 KAKQ 190725
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
325 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure right over the area this morning, will slide off
the coast this afternoon and evening. A cold front will cross
the area during Saturday. Another Canadian high pressure system
builds into the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 725 PM EDT Thursday...

No major changes to the going forecast, with only minor digital
database modifications per latest obs. 1034mb high pressure is
centered over the eastern Great Lakes/interior northeast and
continues to building east to the Mid-Atlantic. Clear sky and
light wind will allow temperatures should drop quickly this
evening over the next few hours as the wind becomes calm to
very light under a clear sky, with ideal radiational cooling
conditions overnight. Forecast lows are in the low/mid 30s for
the Piedmont, interior coastal plain, and interior MD Ern Shore.
A frost advisory will go into effect late tonight for much of
central/e-central VA and the MD Ern Shore, mainly for rural
areas, and away from the immediate coastlines, where the best
potential for frost is located. Farther SE, patchy frost is
still possible for interior NE NC, and rural srn/wrn portions
of the Tidewater. Some typically favored cold spots could have
a light freeze over the NW Piedmont. Elsewhere, lows should be
in the upper 30s to low 40s, with mid 40s at the coast in SE
VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure gradually slides offshore by Friday aftn. Mostly
sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s. A cold front approaches
from the NW Friday evening, and pushes across the region late
Friday night through midday Saturday, and into Saturday aftn for
the ern third of the area. PoPs are ~60-70% for a period of
rain across the Piedmont and central VA late Friday night into
early Saturday morning, then into the Ern Shore, SE VA, and NE
NC Saturday morning through midday. PoPs then taper to 20-40% in
the aftn for showers over e-central VA, the Ern Shore, and NE
NC. QPF of 0.25" or less is expected for most of the area, with
0.25-0.4" for far SE VA/NE NC. Milder Friday night with lows in
the 50s, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70F Saturday.

A potent nrn stream trough digs across the region Saturday
night into Sunday. This could result in some lingering SC over
the Nrn Neck/Ern Shore Saturday night. Otherwise, drier cooler
air will arrive from the NW. Forecast lows Saturday night range
from the low 40s NW to the upper 40s/low 50s far SE. Cool,
mostly sunny, and a breezy NW wind Sunday with highs in the mid
50s NW to low 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

After persistent low-level CAA during the day on Sunday,
~1030mb sfc high pressure settles over the western half of
Virginia Sunday night. With clear skies and light winds, expect
a cold night across the area, with temperatures possibly
approaching a 32F over a few inland locations (most likely over
the western CWA) early Monday morning. Low temperatures will
range from the low-mid 30s inland to the 40s along the immediate
coast.

The area of high pressure quickly moves offshore on Monday.
This will allow winds to turn back to the south, setting the
stage for a very modest warm-up early next week. The warm-up
will be short lived, as low pressure (sfc-aloft) passes to our
north on Tue/Tue night. This will drag another cold front
through our area late Tue- Wed. The latest 18/12z suite of
guidance continues to (strongly) suggest a dry FROPA. Highs in
the upper 50s-low 60s on Mon will rise into the mid 60s
NW/around 70 SE on Tue. Morning lows will be in the upper 30s-
mid 40s on Tue. Behind the front, sfc high pressure moves from
the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Wed/Thu. This
setup will likely keep our temperatures below seasonal averages
from mid-late next week. Forecast highs on Wed are in the low-
mid 60s, cooling to the mid 50s-low 60s on Thu. Rain chances
potentially make a return to the area Thursday night into next
weekend, as models are hinting at the development of low
pressure off the southeast coast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...

Cool continental high pressure right over the area this morning,
was providing a clear sky and very light/no wind at the TAF
sites. High pressure slides offshore this aftn and evening, with
a SSW wind of 5-10 kt expected to develop. SKC at the TAF sites
this morning into this aftn, with some increasing high clouds
fm the west late in the day.

A cold front approaches fm the WNW this evening/tonight and
moves thru the region during Sat. This will bring a period of
mainly light rain, along with the potential for a period of
lower cigs/vsbys (mainly MVFR). VFR conditions will return
behind the front Sat aftn into Sat evening.

Outlook: Breezy conditions are expected late Sat night into Sun
in a NW wind, as the front exits and more cool high pressure
builds twd the area. High pressure provides dry wx and VFR
conditions Sun aftn thru Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...

Fast moving upr lvl flow results in quick changes to the marine
forecast over the next several days. Currently, high pressure is
overhead and will move offshore today. Thus, the north winds become
SSW aob 15 kt this aftrn. Pressure gradient tightens tonight ahead
of another strong cold front progged across the waters late Sat.
Winds increase to 15-25 kts so have raised SCA flags across the Ches
Bay and adjacent coastal waters north of the VA/NC border tonight
through Sat morning. Waves increase 2-4 ft with 3-5 ft seas.

Models point to a "lull" in the winds late Sat before anther strong
CAA surge sets in Sat night/Sun. Have elected to end the SSW SCA
headline Sat for now.

Latest data continues to suggest some low end gale force gusts Sat
night and early Sun with the CAA surge behind the cold front. Will
continue to highlight gusts to 35 kts in the text but not hoist any
gale headlines with this package. Prefer to treat each synoptic
event seperate allowing later shifts to hoist gale headlines if the
confidence increases. Diminishing winds and subsiding seas expected
early next week as high pressure builds back into the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 725 PM EDT Thursday...

River flood warning has been lowered for the Appomattox at
Matoaca, but still continue on for the Nottoway River at
Sebrell. See FLSAKQ for site-specific details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>083-085-087>089-092-509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT
Saturday for ANZ630-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ631-632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
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