FXUS61 KAKQ 211508
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1008 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018
High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast through
Thursday. A backdoor cold front drops south across the area
Thursday, then lifts back north across the region through the
Friday afternoon and evening.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stratus rather stubborn to burn off this morning but past few
vsby sat pictures show thinning taking place so do expect
increasing amts of sunshine as the day wears on. Fog lifting
across ne NC as well. Temps will then quickly rise into the 70s
to near 80 across the Piedmont along with a gusty SSW wind at
times. Some record highs will likely be broken across the region.
Marine fog hanging tuff but expect improving vsbys this aftrn.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front approaches from the north tonight, dropping
across northern tier of the forecast area tomorrow morning.
Overrunning moisture incrs along and ahead of this boundary
with low chc pops for sct showers across the nrn half of the
area overnight...mainly after midnight into Thu morning. More
low stratus tonight, and expect another mild night in the warm
sector with areas of fog possible, especially over the water
and along the coast. Lows 55-60 except 50-55 ern shore areas.
00z Models in a bit better agreement with handling of front, as
it drops south across the area Thu/Thu night. Moisture remains
confined mainly to areas along and north of the Va border so
will keep chc pops RIC metro to slight chance Tidewater. Did
maintained low end likely (lgt rain/drizzle) across the far
north for the afternoon and evening. Nam Conest/ARW have been
used to depict weak CAD wedge setting up behind the cool frontal
passage, with temperatures dropping off in the piedmont and
northern tier of counties in the afternoon. Meanwhile, temps
should remain in the 70s for all/much of the aftn across se
counties. Highs 50-55 ern shore to low-mid 70s across nern NC.
Cooler Thurs night with light rain lingering (north) as a moist
onshore flow develops. Lows in the low 40s N to around 50 far
S. Will keep chc showers going Fri as front slips back north as
a warm front due to the moist onshore flow. Highs in the lwr
50s north to lwr 60s south.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aforementioned sfc boundary is expected to set up north of the
area on Saturday leading to southwest flow and very warm
temperatures with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s for a
good portion of the area (cooler across the Eastern Shore). We
should stay dry for a good portion of the day Saturday with the
highest rain chances closer to the boundary across the north and
west. Chances for showers will increase from the northwest
Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front begins to approach
the region. Mild temperatures are expected on Saturday night
with lows generally ranging from the mid to upper 50s.
The cold front crosses region during the day on Sunday bringing a
chance for showers (and potentially some isolated thunder) to the
area. Another mild day out ahead of the front on Sunday with highs
in the 70s for much of the area. Showers may try to linger Sunday
night into Monday, especially across the east. Lows Sunday night
will range from the mid 40s NW to the lower 50s SE and highs Monday
will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure builds
across the region Monday night into Tuesday.
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low Ceilings and areas of fog (including locally dense) across
terminals this morning. After morning clouds/fog burn off
between 13-15z this morning w/VFR conditions expected thereafter
through the afternoon. Ceilings look to drop back down by late
tonight, with some additional VSBY restrictions possible in fog
late tonight (PHF/ECG most likely). A slight chance of Showers
also exists at SBY late tonight.
Outlook: A back door cold front approaches from the NW tonight
then drops south across the area on Thu. Expecting a return to
IFR/MVFR conditions in rain/fog in moist onshore flow Thu/Fri
behind this feature. Front slips back north of the area on
later Friday into Saturday. A second, stronger cold front will
drop across the area Sunday night, with another period of
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible during this period.
Latest sfc analysis shows broad Bermuda high pressure offshore with
a cold front over the OH Valley. Similar pattern today as yesterday,
leading to 10-15 kt SSW winds and 1-2 ft waves over the Bay, 2-3 ft
seas over coastal wtrs. Also continued the dense fog advsry through
midday, though marine fog may also continue into tonight and Thu.
Aforementioned front drops into the area Thu morning, with winds
becoming light/vrb near the front. Still some uncertainty over how
far south the front drops, but for now sub-SCA conditions appear
likely during the day Thu. Seas over northern coastal wtrs may build
up to 5 ft Thu night. The front then lifts off to the north late
Record highs will likely be challenged today (Wed) 2/21:
* Record highs:
* Date: Wed 2/21
RIC: 75 (1930)
ORF: 79 (2014)
SBY: 75 (1943)
ECG: 77 (2014)
* Record high mins for 2/21.
RIC: 54 (1953)
ORF: 58 (1953)
SBY: 51 (1953)
ECG: 61 (1939)
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ630-631-633-635-
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