FXUS61 KAKQ 201851
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
251 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017
High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the
weekend while Tropical Cyclone Jose will to meanders south of
the New England coast.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A warm late summer day across the FA. ISOLD convection
continuing over the higher terrain well W of the FA into early
this morning w/ near term guidance keeping that convection from
entering (wrn portions of) the FA. Mainly SKC overnight w/ in
the m-u60s...except l70s along the coast in SE VA-NE NC.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pres sfc-aloft will be in control from the interior NE
CONUS WSW to the Great Lakes-OH Valley Thu-Sat while remnant
circulation from Jose churns (while weakening) SSE of the New
England coast. ISOLD-SCT (primarily) diurnal convection will
stay WSW of the FA. Periodic clouds possible...esp ern portions
of FA by Sat due to potential close proximity of remnant low off
to the ENE (out over the ocean). Highs Thu in the u70s-l80s at
the coast to m-u80s inland. Lows Thu night 65-70F. Highs Fri-Sat
in the u70s-around 80F at the coast to mainly m80s inland. Lows
Fri night in the l-m60s inland to u60s-around 70F right at the
coast in SE VA-NE NC.
Any convection from the lingering moisture stays west and south of
the fa Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate into the
weekend. Expect pt to mstly sunny days with mstly clr to pt cldy
nights. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 at
the beaches. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s SE.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains strong invof ern Great Lakes and interior
NE CONUS late in the weekend into Mon while a much weakened/remnant
circulation (of Jose) slowly tracks wwd toward the nrn mid-
Atlantic coast (12Z/20 GFS more agressive in that scenerio than
the 12Z/20 ECMWF). Regardless...expecting some increase in
clouds and will carry minimal PoPs by Mon...esp near the coast
as winds turn (a little) more onshore. Lows Sat night in the
l-m60s...except u60s at the coast. Lows Sun night mainly in the
m-u60s. Highs Sun/Mon in the u70s-around 80F at the
Wx conditions Tue-Wed will depend on track of Tropical Cyclone
Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose) would
bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more to
the E would result in drier wx. For now...generally taking the
middle of the road/blend of all guidance meaning...VRB
clouds/20-40% PoPs (highest E) Mon night-Tue night. Monitor
forecasts from TPC on Maria through the weekend.
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TS Jose continues to lift NE away from the area today. SCT-BKN
MVFR SC along the coast this morning becomes SCT CU this aftn.
WNW aob 10 KTS.
Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the
weekend as high pressure builds into the region.
Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift NE (S of the New
England coast) through tonight...then linger (even move back WSW
while weakening) through the weekend. Swells from distant
Hurricane Maria will begin to impact the waters beginning
Fri...continuing through the weekend.
Have decided to go w/ SCAHS on the ocean waters starting w/ new
package...and extending through Fri due to lingering seas aoa 5
ft. Seas will once again ramp up Friday and into the weekend as
swells from distant Tropical Cyclone Maria begin to impact the
region (from the SSE). Additional Small Craft Advisories will
likely be be needed on the ocean waters through early next week.
Made some adjustments to the forecast, with tidal departures
now about the same in the upper Bay as the lower Bay (averaging
close to +1.5 ft throughout). This due to water not exiting the
Bay efficiently (looking at currents at the Cape Henry channel
marker currents). The level at Cambridge may be exacerbated by
an additional few tenths of a foot due to NW winds ~10 kt
trapping water in the inlet. Have upgraded to a coastal flood
warning for the Bay side of the MD eastern shore
(Dorchester/Wicomico/Somerset) for the upcoming high tide cycle
later this aftn/early evening. Elsewhere, will allow the
warning for the VA ern shore and ocean side of the MD shore to
expire shortly after noon, with just additional minor flooding
anticipated for the tide tonight and possibly on Thu. Will
update these products early this aftn with additional coastal
flood advisory headlines.
High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues today as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025.
Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ089-090-
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ095>097-
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ075-077-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Friday
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