FXUS61 KAKQ 141540
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1140 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018
A trough of low pressure slowly moves away from the
region today. High pressure builds into the area Wednesday through
Friday. A cold front moves into the region over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Tuesday...
latest analysis indicates An upper low is located over northeast
PA/east-central NY early, with surface low pressure over eastern
NY. Mainly sunny skies prevail over the CWA east of I-95, with
some SCT/BKN mid to high level clouds pushing through the
Piedmont due to shortwave energy aloft. Noting an isolated but
strong tstm over central NC that appears to be maintaining
strength w/ the aid of the shortwave aloft in tandem w/ a
stalled frontal boundary (and significantly higher boundary
layer moisture (dew pts in low-mid 70s). This should remain
south of vast majority of the CWA this aftn, but may brush NE NC
zones down along the Albemarle sound (where dew pts are holding
in the low 70s) later this aftn so will maintain 20-30% PoPs
there. Will also maintain ~20% PoPs over the north, but this
should hold off until late (probably after 21Z). Elsewhere, a
fairly pleasant day for mid- August with dew pts mainly in the
60s and highs expected to range from the mid to upper 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...
One final shortwave dives SE and brushes the Ern Shore
this evening as the upper low becomes an open wave and departs off
the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. A 30% PoP has been
maintained for the MD Ern Shore with 20% elsewhere along the coast.
Otherwise, a welcome drier period prevails later tonight through
Thursday. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday and
Thursday with a mostly sunny sky and warming temperatures during the
day and mostly clear and warm nights. Thursday appears to be the
hottest day of the week under the influence of ridging aloft and a
developing trough over the Upper Midwest/Wrn Great Lakes. Highs
Wednesday range from the upper 80s along the coast to the low 90s
inland after morning lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. Forecast highs
Thursday reach the upper 80s/low 90s along the coast, to low/mid 90s
inland. Dewpoints mix down into the upper 60s/low 70s, with
resultant heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F. Lows Thursday
morning will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...
The ridge slowly breaks down Fri into the weekend. Will have
mainly diurnal/aftn- evening tstms Fri with PoPs to 20-40%.
Highs Fri into the lower 90s most areas. The GFS/GEM/ECMWF are
into better agreement now over the weekend, with the cold front
slowing down and stalling in the vicinity of the region. Will
therefore maintain chc PoPs Sat/Sun/Mon (mainly in the
aftn/evening with highest PoPs over the south). Temperatures
will cool off a few degrees for highs (mainly 85-90 F) given
more clouds and moisture. Lows will be mainly in the upper 60s
to lower-mid 70s through the entire period.
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 710 AM EDT Tuesday...
An upper low is spinning near the PA/NY border as of 11z, with
a broad surface low pressure located over the Hudson Valley, and
weak high pressure over the Tennessee Valley. This is resulting
in a light SW wind locally. Mainly clear/sunny later this
morning, with sct cu by aftn along with a WSW wind of 8-10kt.
The chc of showers/tstms is lower today, with 20-30% at SBY and
ECG, and <15% elsewhere.
Primarily dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as
high pressure builds in from the W, although patchy early
morning fog is possible each day. Another trough is expected to
drop into the regions Friday/Saturday bringing an increased chc
of mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms.
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...
Early this morning, upper low pressure was spinning over east-
central PA. The low is expected to gradually move ENE through
New England, and out to sea on Wed. The region will remain in a
generally weak low level gradient regime through Wed, which
means a continuation of overall good boating conditions on the
Bay and coastal waters. Expect mainly WSW winds 5-15 kt, with
winds becoming S or SW late Wed. SSW winds 5-15 kt will prevail
Wed night thru Fri. Seas generally 2-3 feet on the ocean, with
waves 1-2 feet on the Bay.
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