FXUS61 KAKQ 191732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
132 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

High pressure remains centered off the coast today. A frontal
boundary drops into the area tonight and Wednesday, then settles
near the Virginia North Carolina border Thursday. The front
drops farther south into the Carolinas Friday as high pressure
builds over the New England coast.


As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...

The current surface analysis places high pressure
centered over the Deep South, and a cold front is situated near the
NY/PA border. Mostly clear, warm, and humid early this morning with
temperatures ranging through the 70s and dewpoints in the low/mid
70s. Surface high pressure will weaken today with a lee-side trough
developing over the Piedmont as the mid-level high remains centered
near the Carolinas. Becoming hot and still humid later this morning
into early aftn. High temperatures in the mid 90s from central VA
through SE VA and NE NC combined with dewpoints in the low mid 70s
will result in heat indices of 105 to 108F. By later this aftn, the
mid-level ridge will breakdown as the aforementioned front drops
swd. Showers/tstms are expected to develop in vicinity of lee-side
trough by mid-aftn, with this activity potentially organizing and
dropping SE into central and SE VA later this aftn through evening.
Modest buoyancy along with increasing mid-level flow will result in
a marginal severe risk per SPC outlook, with the main threat being
damaging wind gusts. Highs today will be in the mid 90s, with upper
80s/low 90s at the immediate coast. Lows tonight will mainly be in
the low/mid 70s.


As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...

The frontal boundary remains over the region Wednesday, with
another round of aftn/evening showers/tstms expected. Again, the
severe risk is marginal with damaging wind gusts the main
threats. Highs Wednesday will mainly be in the mid 80s to low
90s (upper 70s at the immediate Atlantic coast of the MD Ern
Shore). Lows Wednesday night will generally be in the low/mid
70s. The front settles near the VA/NC border Thursday, with the
best chc of showers/tstms shifting into srn VA/NE NC. Highs
Thursday will be in the mid/upper 80s (with upper 70s/around 80F
for the immediate Atlantic MD coast).


As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Models show strong ridging aloft remains over the Southeastern
US and Gulf Coast states Thursday evening with a trough exiting
the northeastern US while a closed low and trough are entrenched
over the central US. The ridge over the southeast and gulf
coast will remain entrenched for the extended period and the
central US trough will lift into the Great Lakes and
Northeastern US before it begins to shear out. At the surface,
the models show a cold front sinking south through the area
Thursday night into Friday before washing out on Saturday. The
question is how far the front goes as the GFS and ECMWF get the
front well into the Carolinas. The models often struggle with
how far south the fronts get this time of the year. So have held
on to some pops in the southern portion of the CWA Thursday
night into Friday thinking the front will linger a little closer
than the models currently show. Once the front dissolves on
Saturday, the flow will return to a southerly direction as the
high to the NE retreats and the low pressure over the Great
Lakes heads toward SE Canada. This will allow the warmer and
more humid air to return to the area. Temperatures will rebound
from the mid to upper 80s on Friday to upper 80s to near 90 on
Saturday. This day should have the better chance for afternoon
storms with the added forcing of the upper trough.

For Sunday into Monday will see a return of the heat and
humidity as the ridge over the SE US remains in place with the
models trying to break it down on Monday with a cold frontal
passage. Right now the models show a much more vigorous trough
over the Great Lakes and Northeastern US which would suggest
that the front would go through and would like generate some
convection along the boundary. So have increased pops back to
chance levels on Monday after reducing values to slight chance
on Sunday. Temperatures each day should be in the low to mid
90s. But will have to see if this trend of the models persist or
if the ridging over the SE US maintains it hold on the weather
and the fronts continue to stall out near the VA/NC region.


As of 710 AM EDT Tuesday...

A weak trough/cold front just north of the region will move
through the area late this afternoon into tonight. This will
allow an area of storms over western/central MD to spread
south/southeast, impacting SBY and RIC this afternoon, and
perhaps as far south of PHF this evening. Could see localized
MVFR or brief IFR with any storm this aftn/evening. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions through the period.

A weak cold front will settle over the area Wednesday with
another round of aftn/evening showers/tstms expected across the
region. The boundary shifts farther S by Thursday, with the best
potential for aftn/evening showers/tstms mainly over srn/SE VA
and NE NC. Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday as high
pressure over coastal New England results in onshore flow. The
potential for aftn/evening showers/tstms returns Saturday.


As of 440 AM EDT Tuesday...

No headlines in the short term today thru Wed night. Winds will
become W then NW at 10 kt or less this morning, as a weak
boundary crosses the waters. A weakening cold front then sags
south over the waters late this aftn into Wed morning, turning
winds to the NE (but still less than 10 kt). The meandering
front slowly lifts back north late Wed, with onshore flow
gradually becoming SE by late Wed, then SSW Wed night. This
same front then drops back south across the waters on Thu, with
NNW winds around 10 kt becoming NE then E late Thu aftn into Fri
morning. E winds 10-15 kt later Fri morning into Fri evening. Waves
1-2 ft thru Thu night, with seas 2-3 ft.


As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

Hottest airmass of the season will continue Tue. Record highs
(and record high mins) were not set today (Mon). No record highs are
expected on Tue (record high mins may be close in some spots).
For reference, the record highs and record high mins for Tue
6/19 are listed below:

* Site Record High Record High Min

* RIC: 103 (1944) 74 (2015)
* ORF: 101 (1944) 77 (2017)
* SBY: 96 (1993) 74 (2017)
* ECG: 100 (1944) 78 (2017)


NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ079>083-


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