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FXUS61 KAKQ 230851
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
351 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Friday. Low
pressure will linger off the southeast coast Friday through
Saturday morning. Another cold front will cross the area late
Saturday into Saturday night, with high pressure building back
in from the northwest Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest wx analysis indicating a broad area of sfc high pressure
extending ENE from Texas to the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlc states.
Aloft, a trough axis is in place from the TN Valley south to the
Gulf of Mexico and high clouds are streaming into the local area
in the WSW flow aloft. Overall a dry/cold airmass has settled
across the CWA, still some mixing near the coast so temperatures
there are mainly in the upper 30s/lower 40s, while NW portions
of the CWA have dropped into the lower- mid 20s. Temperatures to
fall a few more degrees through sunrise. For today/tonight, sfc
high pressure will remain in control, keeping moisture
associated with low pressure over FL shunted to our south.
Mostly sunny skies will prevail today, though the high clouds
will continue and may dim the sunshine a bit, particularly
across SE VA/NE NC later today. Rather shallow mixing underneath
sfc high pressure and latest model guidance appears to have
finally latched onto this by trending cooler for highs which
will be mainly in the upper 40s (around 50 F to lower 50s for
extreme SE VA and NE NC). Light winds this aftn through tonight
along with dew pts mainly in the 20s will allow for a rapid drop
in temperatures after sunset. Lows tonight will avg in the mid
20s to around 30 F most areas (locally a few degrees warmer SE
coast).


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest GFS/NAM/ECMWF remain in good agreement with the pattern
through the weekend, with enough northern stream trough energy
passing by to our NE Fri morning to keep sfc low pressure and
associated moisture off the SE coast and south of the local
area. Sfc high pressure more or less to stay entrenched over the
region fri, gradually shifting off the mid-Atlc coast by fri
aftn/evening. Bufkit soundings again depict fairly
limited/shallow mixing for Fri so even with significant rises
in 850 mb temperatures Fri, actual high temperatures at the sfc
will not warm all that much, mainly into the mid 50s. Mostly
sunny, except for some increasing clouds over the far SE. Next
upper trough moves into and through the Great Lakes Fri night/Sat.
Still looks like bulk of moisture from low pressure off the SE
and Mid Atlc coasts stays over the Gulf stream, as it lifts
NNE. Not quite as cold Fri night with lows in the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Sfc cold front approaches from the west Fri night
into midday Sat, then crosses the area late Sat into Sat night.
A somewhat breezy SSW flow to develop and will see a milder day
with highs to around 60 F N to the mid 60s SE. Clouds will
increase during the aftn and become mostly cloudy across the NW.
Sfc cold front and a lagging shortwave trough aloft to cross the
region Sat evening and push offshore Sat night. System remains
moisture starved, but will carry 20% PoPs over the N/NE, GFS
is stronger with the forcing than the ECMWF. Lows in the mid 30s
NW to the lower 40s SE. Becoming mostly sunny and turning cooler
Sun as sfc high pressure returns from the W. Highs mainly 50-55
F.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather and increasing temps on tap for the long term period.
Sfc high pressure builds in from the west early next week as an
upper-level trough pulls offshore, leading to mostly sunny/clear
skies Sun night and into Mon with high temps averaging in the
low/mid 50s. Warmer then for Tue and Wed as the high slides
offshore allowing for S/SW flow over the Mid Atlc...highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR/dry today with just some SCT-BKN high clouds
today/tonight.North winds to 10 kt this morning will become
light/variable by this aftn and tonight. Sfc high pres will
maintain VFR conditions into Sat, winds will strengthen from the
SSW Sat ahead of a cold front and turn to the NW Sunday. Skies
may become mostly cloudy Sat aftn/evenings with isolated showers
possible, but VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure has begun to build into the region from the west this
morning which has allowed winds to diminish. At 4 am, SCAs for the
Currituck Sound and Chesapeake Bay will expire, with the SCAs for
the coastal waters still set to expire at 10 am as seas gradually
subside. Latest NWPS wave guidance is a bit slower to bring seas
down until this afternoon so an extension in time may be needed
later this morning.

With high pressure over the waters, sub-SCA conditions are expected
into Friday. The next cold front crosses the region Saturday night
bringing the potential for gusty NW winds/SCA conditions for
Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ630>633.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...AJB/JDM
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