FXUS61 KAKQ 270816
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
416 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017
A weak cold front will sink south through the region late this
afternoon into tonight. The front will drop into the Carolinas
Sunday, and then return north as a warm front Sunday night.
Another cold front approaches from the northwest on Memorial
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current GOES wv imagery reveals a shortwave trough and
associated surface low pressure tracking across the Ohio Valley
early this morning. Mostly clear locally as of 4 am with
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. The trough
will dig ESE today, with the surface low following suit and
tracking across central/SE VA late this aftn through the
evening. Mainly dry through midday, before the chc for
showers/tstms increases during the aftn into the evening. 0-1km
MLCAPE values are progged to reach 1000-1500 J/kg, with a decent
mid/upper level speed max resulting in 0-6km bulk shear of
40-50kt. Severe thunderstorms are possible this aftn and evening
with areas along and S of the I-64 corridor in a slight risk
area. The main threats are damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Mostly sunny this morning, then becoming partly sunny, and
mostly cloudy late. Forecast highs range from the 70s over the
Ern Shore to the low/mid 80s inland W of the Bay. The chc for
showers/tstms diminishes NW-SE overnight tonight with lows
generally in the 60s.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The initial shortwave trough pushes offshore Sunday morning,
with shortwave ridging building over the Mid-Atlantic. The
surface cold front drops into the Carolinas Sunday with N/NE
flow developing across the region in the wake of the mid-level
trough and surface cold front. Variably cloudy with some patchy
morning stratus or fog possible. Cooler over the Ern Shore with
highs in the low/mid 70s and locally upper 60s at the immediate
coast. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s from the wrn
shore of the Bay through coastal SE VA/NC NC, with low/mid 80s
for central/srn VA and interior NE NC.
The surface boundary returns newd into the region late Sunday
aftn into the evening and early overnight hours. This will
combine with another shortwave trough resulting in an increasing
possibility of showers/tstms during the evening and overnight
hours. 0-6km bulk shear rapidly increases to 35-45kt after 00z
resulting in a chc of a few strong to marginally severe tstms
mainly during the evening. Mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s.
A cold front will be crossing the mountains Monday morning, and
then continue ewd Monday aftn. Additional showers/tstms are
expected Memorial Day aftn/evening. There is some model
disagreement with respect to coverage, so PoPs will remain
30-50%. Increasing WSW flow aloft ahead of a trough digging
across the Great Lakes will yield 0- 6km bulk shear values of
40-50kt. This will combine with 1000-2000 J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE
resulting in the potential for severe thunderstorms. Partly
sunny then mostly cloudy on Memorial Day with highs ranging
through the 80s, with the potential for near 90 SE, and 70s
along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal boundary will push south of the area Tue morning, with
weak high pressure providing mainly dry wx for Tue aftn thru Wed.
More unsettled wx with chcs for showers or tstms then expected
Wed night thru Fri, as a frontal boundary will linger over the
region or acrs the Carolinas. Highs will mainly range fm the
upper 70s to mid 80s thru the period, with lows ranging fm the
upper 50s to the upper 60s.
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail this morning and into early this aftn.
Scattered showers and tstms return to the region later this
aftn, becoming most probable from about 18-20Z through
00-03Z/Sun. There is a potential for some strong storms with
strong wind gusts being the main concern (and brief heavy
Otherwise, the wind will shift to the N/NE later tonight and
become E/SE during the day Sunday. Some lower cigs/MVFR-IFR
conditions are possible Sun morning. A chc for showers/tstms
returns Sunday evening/night and again Monday aftn/evening.
Minimal chcs for aftn/evening showers/tstms persist into
Tuesday and Wednesday.
Latest surface analysis places a weak ridge of high pressure over
the water with an area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley. Winds
are generally light and variable, with speeds at or below 10 knots.
Waves ~1 foot and seas 1-2 feet. The ridge axis slides offshore this
morning as low pressure approaches from the northwest. An associated
cold front reaches the waters this afternoon. Flow becomes south to
southeast around 10 knots. Seas 2-3 feet. Low pressure pushes across
the waters tonight as the front drops over North Carolina. Flow
becomes northerly at 10-15 knots. Low pressure stalls offshore
Sunday as high pressure nudges in from the northeast. Flow becomes
onshore through Sunday evening at 10-15 knots. The next area of low
pressure lifts over the eastern Great Lakes region Sunday night and
into eastern Canada on Memorial Day. A trailing cold front reaches
the waters late Monday into Monday night, stalling along the coast.
The front washes out as high pressure slowly builds in from the west
through Wednesday. Winds generally at or below 15 knots. High
pressure prevails through the end of the work week.
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