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FXUS61 KALY 210512
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
112 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler and drier air will filter in tonight into Tuesday,
with windy conditions developing. Temperatures return to normal
on Wednesday as high pressure moves into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 110 AM EDT...Main change with this update was to increase
wind speeds through the rest of the night. ASOS and NYS Mesonet
obs indicating frequent gusts between 25-35 mph in the Mohawk
Valley, Capital District, and Taconics eastward into the
Berkshires. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected through
the rest of the night with the cold front well south and east of
our region. Skies will be mainly cloudy west of the Hudson
Valley overnight, with more breaks from the valley eastward.
Temperatures will cool in the 40s to lower 50s.

Some showers will affect parts of the higher terrain well north
and west of Albany overnight, as an upper level disturbance
moves through. Best chances for some showers and light
measurable rainfall will be across the western/southern
Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday will be noticeably cooler and drier with a fairly strong
northwest flow in place. An upper level low will move over
northern New England as high pressure gradually pushes eastward
from the Great Lakes. This pressure dipole will result in a good
pressure gradient, bringing windy conditions. Forecast
soundings indicate potential to mix down wind gusts of 30-40 mph
across much of the area. The wind combined with slightly below
normal temperatures will make it feel quite cool compared to the
past few days.

A north-northwest breeze will likely persist through much of
Tuesday night, as the surface high is forecast to still be just
west of the region during this time. So frost/freeze conditions
are not likely to occur due to the breeze and temps in the upper
30s to mid 40s. It will feel rather cool though.

A pleasant day is expected for Wednesday, as surface high
pressure moves in from the west along with rising heights aloft.
This will provide plenty of sunshine, seasonable temperatures
and relatively light winds. Clouds may start to increase
Wednesday night, as a warm front starts to approach from the
Ohio Valley. Models indicating very little moisture or forcing
at this time, so will only mention slight chance pops for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As we head into the Memorial Day holiday weekend, the large scale
flow shows a very pronounced ridge centered over the Gulf States
(500mb heights centered near 595dm) with fast zonal flow along its
northern periphery extending into the Great Lakes and the Northeast.
Those seeking summer-like temperatures will be happy to hear this
set-up will keep 850mb temperatures warm over eastern NY and western
New England ranging +10C to +15C leading to seasonably warm surface
high temperatures in the 70s (60s higher terrain) with overnight
lows in the 50s. On the other hand, multiple shortwaves will be
riding within the fast zonal flow resulting in a few chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Read on for details.

We start the period off on Thursday with the remnant shortwave
that's actually responsible for the severe weather over TX and OK
today riding around the periphery of the large ridge into the
Northeast. Initially, its warm front looks to move through Thursday
morning with clouds and perhaps a few showers. Given the shortwave
will still be rather potent and ridging southeastward from Ontario
into our region, we have some uncertainty in the northern extend of
the warm front as some guidance suggests it stalls somewhere over
the Upper Hudson Valley or North Country. For now we have the
warmest temperatures extending from the mid-Hudson Valley northward
into the Capital Region in the low 70s while we kept areas
north/east a few degrees cooler in the mid-upper 60s where clouds
may persist.

Model guidance is in general agreement that 500mb heights fall
across eastern NY and western New England towards 00z Friday as our
shortwave actually intensifies within the fast 500mb flow ranging 50-
60kts. Guidance shows that a pre-frontal trough could lead to some
showers/convection in the late afternoon/evening well ahead of the
main cold front that is delayed until closer to 12z Friday.
Instability (which may be mainly elevated) does not look overly
impressive but the fast flow environment should lead to more than
sufficient shear with sfc-6km bulk shear ranging 50-55kts. Depending
on how this play out, this could end up a low CAPE, high shear
environment. For now, mentioned thunderstorms in the Thursday
evening period when the best forcing looks to arrive.

The strengthening shortwave trough and associated cold front move
through Friday morning leading to breezy conditions along with some
lingering showers possible. By the afternoon, strong subsidence in
its wake intensifies a shortwave ridge rounding the large scale
ridge from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This should lead to
increasing sun and weakening winds. Temperatures should end up a few
degrees cooler than Friday given the northwest flow.

High pressure maintains control heading into Friday night and
Saturday as it shifts into the Gulf of Maine. Upper level flow
shifts southwesterly giving us a warm Saturday in the 70s before yet
another cold front marching eastward through the Great Lakes.
Luckily, its parent low looks to be well displaced to our north
crossing through northern Ontario/Quebec. Due to weak forcing and
the late arrival of the front Saturday late PM/evening, we should
mainly be dealing with showers. Left out the thunder mention for now
as did not neighboring offices.

With our strong ridge still positioned over the Southeast U.S, our
weak cold front may become washed out over the mid-Hudson
Valley/southern New England on Sunday. A few shortwaves look to
still be riding within the fast zonal flow and with the leftover
boundary in place, these southern zones could see a few returning
showers/storms. Otherwise, temperatures aloft remain very warm with
850mb isotherms ranging +10C to +15C so high temperatures Sunday may
end up being warmer than Saturday in the upper 70s to near 80 in
southern areas.

The boundary should get pushed south of eastern NY/western New
England by Monday as weak Canadian high pressure noses southward.
Kept Monday and Tuesday mainly dry and warm in the 70s with only
slight chance POPS but we will need to monitor the pattern over the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front has moved east of the area early this evening and
any chance of showers has ended. Skies will be partly cloudy
tonight with mainly VFR conditions including bkn cloud cover
above 3000 feet. Gusty west winds behind the front will diminish
somewhat overnight. VFR conditions will continue on Tuesday with
partly cloudy skies and cigs above 3000 feet, while northwest
winds become quite strong and gusty.

Winds will be west at 10 to 15 kts tonight with some gusts to 20
kts this evening, then northwest at 15 to 20 kts with some gusts
as high as 30 kts during the day Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southwest winds will gust to around 30 mph for the remainder of
the afternoon ahead of the cold frontal passage...

Northwest winds will gust to between 30 and 40 mph on Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a
cold frontal passage, will move across the region this afternoon and
evening. Some of the storms may become severe, especially from
around Albany south and east. Much cooler and drier air will filter
in tonight into Tuesday, with windy conditions developing.
Temperatures return to normal on Wednesday as high pressure moves
into the region.

Relative humidity values will recover to around 70 to 90
percent tonight and between 65 and 85 percent Tuesday night.
Minimum RH values will be around 35 to 50 percent Tuesday
afternoon and between 30 and 45 percent Wednesday afternoon.

Winds for the remainder of the afternoon will be southwest
around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Winds tonight will
shift to the northwest (behind the cold front) and will
continue to be gusty. Winds will increase further on Tuesday to
around 15 to 25 mph, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the
remainder of the evening as a cold front moves through the
region. Moisture anomalies will still be relatively high, so
there is a continued chance for locally heavy rain within any
convection. Basin average rainfall amounts will vary
significantly due to convective nature of the precipitation.
Locally, rainfall greater than 1 inch will be possible where
thunderstorms are most persistent and/or move across the same
areas. The threat for flooding is low due to expected fast
motion of thunderstorms. However, localized problems could occur
if storms repeatedly move across the same area.

Drier weather returns tonight through Wednesday as high
pressure gradually builds back into the region. The next chance
of showers arrives later in the week with the approach of a
warm front.

Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web
page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV/JLV
NEAR TERM...MSE/JPV/JLV
SHORT TERM...JPV/JLV
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...MSE/Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/JLV
HYDROLOGY...JPV/JLV
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