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FXUS61 KALY 191047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
647 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control of our weather, providing
plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures today.
Temperatures will begin moderating to above normal levels Friday
into the weekend with dry weather continuing as the high drifts
into the southeastern United States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Frost Advisory remains in effect for the southern Adirondacks,
Lake George-Saratoga region, the northern Taconics, the
Berkshires and southern Vermont through 8 am this morning.

Fog along rivers, swamps, ponds and lakes will burn off shortly
after sunrise and frost will quickly melt, too. High pressure
over the region will result in a sunny sky with light winds
through this afternoon. Some thin high clouds could filter into
some areas this afternoon but will not modify temperatures at
all. Highs this afternoon in the upper 60s to lower 70s in most
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly clear tonight with calm to nearly calm winds. Some fog
will again form around rivers, swamps, lakes and ponds. As upper
ridging builds in from the west Friday through Saturday, more
noticeable high clouds may spread east into our region with some
intervals of thicker high clouds perhaps filtering the sun a
little.

Still, the upper ridging building, boundary layer temperatures
warming and the boundary layer winds trending from light to
steady southwest will result in noticeable surface warming as
well. Highs Friday in the mid to upper 70s in the Hudson Valley
and NW CT and lower 70s elsewhere. Highs Saturday in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the Hudson Valley and NW CT and mid 70s
elsewhere. Dry and tranquil weather continues Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The period starts out Sunday with our region still under the
influence of an upper level ridge along the east coast, however the
500 mb ridge axis is expected to shift east off the coast by Sunday
afternoon. With the ridge off the coast, this will allow for a warm
S/SW flow to occur on Sunday with an already anomalously warm (+1 to
+2 STDEV at 850 mb) air mass in place. Surface temperatures will be
well above normal as a result, possibly by as much as 10-15 degrees.
This should allow for max temps to reach at least the mid 80s in
many valley areas, if not slightly warmer, and 75-80 across higher
elevations.

Chances for showers will gradually increase from NW to SE across the
area Sunday night into Monday, as a cold front moves through.
However, there are timing/strength differences with regards to the
upper level pattern among the guidance through the rest of the
period. The ECMWF is indicating a stronger/deeper trough, which
takes through Tuesday to pass through. The GFS and GEFs are
depicting a more de-amplified trough and much more progressive. Will
indicate highest chances for showers Monday/Monday night, but linger
some slight chance into Tuesday, especially in the morning, to
account for possible slower passage of front and associated upper
level trough.

Above normal temperatures are still likely Sunday night into Monday,
with lows Sunday night mainly in the 50s and 60s, and highs Monday
in the 70s to lower 80s, although if clouds/showers are slower to
arrive, even warmer max temps will be possible, especially valley
areas from Albany south and east.

Will indicate dry conditions for Tuesday night-Wednesday as high
pressure builds over the region. However, another fast moving
shortwave may approach Wednesday night with clouds and showers.
Slightly cooler for Tuesday-Wednesday, with highs mainly in the
lower 70s for valley areas, and 60s across higher elevations. Lows
Tuesday/Wednesday nights in the 40s to lower 50s, although some 30s
could occur Tuesday night across portions of the southwest
Adirondacks and southern VT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will slide south across the TAF sites today and
into the mid Atlantic states tonight into Friday.

After any fog/low clouds burns off between 12Z-14Z/Thu, expect
VFR conditions to prevail into early this evening. Some patchy
fog could develop at KGFL once again after 03Z/Fri.

Chances for fog increase once again after 08Z/Fri, with best
chances at KGFL and KPSF, where LIFR/VLIFR conditions are
likely. Fog development is a bit more uncertain at KALB and
KPOU, as a light south to southwest wind develops within the
lower levels of the atmosphere. This may allow any fog which
forms along the Hudson River to drift into KPOU toward 12Z/Fri.
The fog may remain south and east of KALB through 12Z/Fri.

With high pressure passing nearby, winds will be mainly
light/variable through tonight, although may trend into the
south at KGFL and KALB this afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain in control of our weather, providing
plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures today.
Temperatures will begin moderating to above normal levels Friday
into the weekend with dry weather continuing as the high drifts
into the southeastern United States.

RH values will be 30 to 45 percent this afternoon, then increase
to 80 to 100 percent tonight. RH values will be 40 to 50
percent Friday afternoon.

Winds will be variable at less than 15 mph through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro Service Area
/HSA/ through at least Sunday.

There are some abnormally dry areas in the ALY HSA based on the
most recent Drought Monitor, and there is a high probability of
dry weather through at least Sunday.

The next chance of widespread rainfall may be with a cold
frontal boundary approaching on Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ032-033-
041>043-054-083-084.
MA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MAZ001-025.
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
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