FXUS61 KALY 061742
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR
WEATHER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL DO SO THROUGH TODAY...THEN
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO SOUTHEAST
AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR DEVELOPS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE MORE UPDATE. ALAS...THANKS TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL PERSISTING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. CALL IT ISOLATED
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. LOWERED SOME MORE TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AT ALL LEVELS TONIGHT AND WITH FIRST
ADVECTIVE COOLING AND THEN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT EXPECT WIDESPREAD 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS FA. HAVE THUS
POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES FOR ENTIRE FA EXCEPT
THOSE AREAS WHERE GROWING SEASON ENDED ON SEPTEMBER 19TH. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THEIR COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON IN MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS ENTIRE FA...THIS WILL LIKELY
END THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF FA. FREEZE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BUT THIS TIME ONLY FOR THOSE AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON DOES NOT END TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IN OUR WHO. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING IN MILDER AIR. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST RUN
REGARDING THE MAJOR FEATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY
WHICH SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY AND STALLS FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM COMING
UP THE COAST PHASES IN WITH IT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PAUSE IN
THE SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS FAR OUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO LEAVE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP. USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND
MEX/MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY RAISED THE POPS TO CHANCE
TO SHOW IN THE TEXT FOR OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT AIDED IN
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE TOWARDS EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE... CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS...AND WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU-SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR
WEATHER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL DO SO THROUGH TODAY...THEN
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND FALL TO 25 TO
40 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
PESTERED US THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
ADIRONDACKS WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN END OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEY OF
CONNECTICUT. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN DRY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRED THE ADIRONDACKS YESTERDAY. THEY WERE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
DID NOT AFFECT THE RIVERS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE
IN THE WEEK WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...
BUT LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS.
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ038>043-047-048-051-054-061-063-066-083-084.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065.
MA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MAZ025.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VTZ014-015.
&&
$$
AVIATION...KGS
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