FXUS61 KALY 250604

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
204 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Clouds thicken tonight with rain overspreading the region
after midnight, as low pressure slowly moves from the Carolinas
this evening to Cape Cod by Thursday morning. Periods of rain
continue Wednesday into Thursday, as the system only slowly
lifts north and east into eastern Canada.


As of 1212 AM EDT, Clouds continue to lower and thicken clouds.
Rain along the leading edge of low level jet forcing and
moisture advection was starting to overspread the region
especially across western and southern areas.

Temperatures overnight will fall a few degrees toward wet bulb
temperatures once the rain begins. So, lows tonight in the 40s,
with around 40 northern areas and near 50 southern areas.


The upper energy and low level forcing will support widespread
rain much of the day. There could be a rumble of thunder in the
mid Hudson Valley and NW CT but the zone of best instability
will likely track east and south of our region. With the clouds
and rain, highs Wednesday in the 50s, with lower 50s north and
upper 50s south.

Upper energy exits Wednesday night but a trailing northern
stream upper impulse approaches from the Great Lakes. Coverage
of rain decreases to showers through the night and low level
temperatures cool behind the cold front. There are some
disagreements in guidance/ensembles as to the track and strength
of the trailing upper impulse through or just north of our
region Thursday. Depending on the track, some lingering showers
Thursday with the upper cold pool, but may be confined to areas
north of the Mohawk Valley to southern VT. All other areas may
just see some morning sun then widespread clouds developing
when the convective temperature is reached, and a few sprinkles
possible. Highs Thursday in the lower to mid 60s but 50s in
northern areas.

Sources of guidance/ensembles having difficulty resolving
features in such a chaotic upper pattern into Friday. Previous
guidance/ensembles suggested dry weather Friday. Now there is
an increasing consensus for a trailing piece of upper energy
tracking out of the mid Atlantic U.S. that could bring
considerable clouds and showers into our region Friday.
Indicating clouds and just scattered showers Friday and will
leave flexibility for changes with future guidance and
forecasts. Highs Friday in the mid 50s to lower 60s.


Rain showers will be around for the beginning of the long term
period with a couple of disorganized pieces of energy traversing the
region. High pressure will build over the region providing
pleasant weather for the end of the weekend into early next week.

Friday night through Saturday...A shortwave trough over the
Southeast CONUS will lift to the Northeast providing marginal
dynamic forcing and widespread light rain showers late Friday
through Saturday. An additional piece of northern stream energy will
swing through the region later on Saturday keeping a chance for
light rain showers over the region into Saturday night. Low
temperatures Friday/Saturday night will be in the upper 30s to low
40s. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 50s to low 60s.

Sunday through Tuesday...Upper tropospheric ridging and associated
surface high pressure will dominate our weather Sunday through
Tuesday. Large scale subsidence will provide partly cloudy to mostly
sunny conditions during this time period as well. The upper ridging
combined with west/southwest flow and a stronger sun angle will
raise tempertures into the low 60s on Monday and possibly into the
low 70s on Tuesday.


Rain continues to overspread the region from south to north
early this morning with VFR conditions currently in place. As
the dry low levels continue to saturate, ceilings are expected
to gradually lower to MVFR by around 12Z. Ceilings should
remain at MVFR through most of the period, with IFR possible
mainly at KPOU/KPSF. Visibilities should remain VFR except for
in heavier downbursts. High res models indicate that there could
be breaks in the rainfall/become spotty in nature later in the
day. This could allow for some minor improvement in CIGS at
KALB/KGFL. Though, due to moist low levels and spotty
showers/drizzle around, BR/FG is possible after 00Z/Thur across
all TAF sites.

Winds will generally be from the east-northeast at 5-10 knots
through the period, with some gusts possible at KPSF during the


Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


Clouds increase quickly this evening with rain overspreading
the region tonight ahead of a complex storm system approaching
from the south. Periods of rain continue Wednesday into
Thursday, as the system lifts slowly north and east of upstate
New York.

Rain and elevated RH values are expected Wednesday. RH values
will be greater than 60 percent Thursday with lingering scattered

Winds will be east to southeast Wednesday at around 15 mph and
west at 15 to 25 mph Thursday


Widespread hydrological problems are next expected the next
several days.

The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives tonight.
It is expected to fall mainly as rain. The rain will persist
through Wednesday into Thursday a complex storm system impacts
the hydro service area. Total rainfall amounts tonight into
Thursday morning are expected in the three quarters of an inch
to inch and a half range with a few locally higher amounts.

The latest MMEFS guidance shows minor rises on area rivers and
creeks at this time with the GEFS most aggressive with a few
points reaching minor flooding dependent on snow melt with the
QPF. However, the GEFS continue to over do the snow melt the
past several weeks. A few river points may touch action stage
late this week based on the NERFC forecasts depending on how
much snow melt and rainfall combine into run off into rivers.

Cooler temperatures will allow for flows to start to decrease
late in the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.




LONG TERM...Cebulko
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