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FXUS61 KALY 211408
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
908 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonable warmth will continue today with record high
temperatures expected. The combination of snowmelt and recent
rainfall may lead to some minor flooding over the higher terrain
well north and west of the Capital District through Wednesday night.
A cold front will pass through late this afternoon, ushering in
colder and more seasonable temperatures by Thursday with some snow
possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning for
Herkimer, Hamilton, and northern Warren Counties...

As of 905 AM EST, A SPS has been issued to address patchy dense
fog through the morning. No other changes were made to the
forecast at this time other than tweaking the hourly temps to
reflect most recent obs.

Today the main story are the record breaking temperatures
expected to be set at Climate sites Albany and Poughkeepsie (see
Climate section below for details). Achieving these record
temperatures will depend on the ability to scour out any morning
fog or low stratus. Based on forecast soundings and potential
mixing, we are expecting temperatures to soar into the mid 60s
to lower 70s for areas around I-90 and the Capital District
southward. A favorable SW flow in the low-levels along with
anomalous warmth at 850 mb +2 to +3 leads to higher confidence
in the warmth. The all-time February record high temp of 74 at
Albany set just last February, may be challenged. Again, areas
in NY north of I-90 will be cooler with a lower confidence
forecast in high temps. A cold front will be pushing SE across
the area this afternoon, although timing looks to be late enough
to not affect the warming potential across the southeast half
of the area. Temperatures will actually start to drop during the
mid afternoon hours for areas well north and west of Albany.
Mainly some light scattered rain showers expected along the cold
front due to lack of forcing and dynamics despite the
unseasonably high moisture levels.

Much colder air will filter back into the region tonight behind
the cold frontal passage. Surface high pressure over the Great
Lakes will build eastward into the region, allowing the flow to
turn out of the north and continue to usher in colder air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The primary upper level ridge located off of the
Florida/Carolina coastline will persist but begin to flatten on
Thursday. This will allow for a shortwave to ride along the edge
of the upper ridge and across the area on Thursday and lead to
a quick shot of precipitation. Due to the colder air in place,
we could see a wintry mix including some sleet during Thursday
morning into the early afternoon hours. The best chance for
precipitation will be mainly across the Capital Region and
points south. We could also see a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow
accumulations.

Dry conditions are expected Thursday night, as surface ridging
holds steady over New York. Low temps will return to normal for
late February, mainly in the teens and 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Progressive pattern expected through the upcoming weekend with a
period of tranquil weather expected into early next week.

As the current ECMWF was not available for this long term portion of
the forecast, the previous versions along with the GFS/GGEM all
suggest the surface high will move off the New England coastline
Friday as the return of a warm front advects northward with chances
for precipitation quickly increasing. Precipitation type will be a
challenge as warm advection moves across a cooler surface for a
period of snow, sleet and freezing rain all possible with a
transition to mostly rain from southwest to northeast through the
day as warm advection persists.

Friday night into Saturday, locations along and in the vicinity of
the I84 corridor may remain close to the frontal zone for the chance
of additional period of wet weather. Otherwise, large surface high
is expected too move across the Great Lakes region and New England.
This should keep the remainder of the region dry with near
seasonable temperatures.

Saturday night into Sunday, the next surge of moisture arrives. This
will have Gulf of Mexico moisture being advected northward ahead of
the main cold front Sunday night. Then drier weather in the wake of
the frontal passage is expected overnight Sunday which should last
through Tuesday.

Temperatures through the period should average near to just above
normal with precipitation averaging above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Winds have decoupled in some locations this morning, leading to
IFR conditions due to fog formation. This fog should lift/burn
off around 14Z this morning, allowing for VFR conditions to
prevail.

Through the daylight hours, mainly VFR conditions are expected with
gusty southerly or southwesterly winds. Cold front is expected
to impact the terminals this afternoon yet shower potential is
less than ideal so we will include a VCSH across all terminals.
Winds will shift toward the west-northwest late this afternoon
in the wake of the frontal passage. Winds should stay well mixed
enough to limit fog potential after 00Z/Thu but did include
mention of BR at this time.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA...RA...SN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN...SLEET.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Temperatures will continue to be well above normal today, with
some record high temperatures possible as well. It will be
relatively cooler for areas north of the Capital District,
although snowmelt will still occur. Not much additional rainfall
will occur, with generally one to two tenths of an inch of
rainfall across the western/southern Adirondacks. A cold front
will pass through late this afternoon, resulting in
temperatures cooling back to more seasonable levels by Thursday.

The main wild card with regards to runoff will be snowmelt.
Will maintain current Flood Watch for Herkimer, Hamilton, and
northern Warren counties, although potential for flooding has
decreased somewhat compared to previous forecasts based on the
latest forecasts from the Northeast River Forecast Center. Also,
MMEFS showing no near term flooding expected over the next
couple days. Still not enough confidence to drop the Flood Watch
though, but will not be expanding the watch area.

We will also continue to monitor where current ice jams are in
place for possible movement through Wednesday night. Flows may
not be great enough to cause significant movement in the absence
of rainfall, although there is considerable uncertainty in
predicting ice jam movement. We will continue to watch this
closely, especially for the larger ice jams around Schenectady
and Thurman in Warren County.

Additional precipitation, some frozen, is expected Thursday
through the upcoming weekend. Rivers levels could rise further
depending on eventual QPF.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperature are forecast for Wednesday.

Wed Feb 21st Current record highs:
KALB 65F set in 1981
KGFL 65F set in 1981
KPOU 67F set in 1953

All-time February highs:
KALB 74F set Feb. 24, 2017
KGFL 70F set Feb. 25, 2017
KPOU 73F set Feb. 24, 2017

RECORDS FOR KPOU DATE BACK TO 1949... HOWEVER...DATA IS MISSING
FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NYZ032-033-038-042.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV/JVM
NEAR TERM...11/JVM
SHORT TERM...JPV/JVM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/JVM
HYDROLOGY...JPV/JVM
CLIMATE...
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