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FXUS61 KALY 191738
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
138 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A more seasonable and less humid airmass takes hold
today and persists through the remainder of the week. Mainly dry
weather is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 PM EDT, Delightful late spring day with comfortable
temperatures and humidity with a northerly breeze. The clouds
from earlier have nearly dissipated with just a few CU just to
the east of Hudson River.

Tonight, continued northwesterly midlevel flow will promote
surface high pressure expanding into the region. A good
radiational cooling night is expected with mainly clear skies
and calm winds, so we should be able to make the most of the
short night with lows in the 40s to low 50s. Could even see some
30s over parts of the southern Adirondacks. Went near to a bit
below MOS guidance, which was preferred to the warmer
Superblend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Eastern NY and western New England will be positioned along the
southern periphery of the eastern Canada trough during the
midweek period. The low-level front will be strung out in an
east-to-west fashion across the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.
Some indication in the model guidance that a low-amplitude
midlevel disturbance will excite a wave along this front
Wednesday/Wednesday night, tracking eastward well south of our
forecast area. However, some guidance shows isentropic lift
ahead of this system resulting in light precipitation over our
southern zones (southeastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley, and
NW CT) Wednesday evening into early Wednesday night. Antecedent
dry airmass should result in a sharp cutoff to the
precipitation. As there is not a strong consensus in the model
guidance, will cap PoPs at chance Wednesday night for our
southern zones. Elsewhere, another seasonable day is in store
with comfortable humidity values. A weak front will approach
from the north, but due to the lack of deep-layer moisture, not
expecting any rainfall with it. A bit milder Wednesday night
compared with tonight as there may be a light northerly breeze
and partial cloud cover around (but mostly cloudy over the
southernmost zones).

Thursday looks rather similar today as a light to moderate
northerly breeze develops in the wake of the surface
wave/weakening frontal boundary. Seasonable temps, low humidity,
and plenty of sunshine again. Another ideal radiational cooling
night appears to be in the offing Thursday night, and once again
went a bit below MOS guidance for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Guidance is in good agreement that there should be rising
heights over the Northeast as a trough exits and a ridge builds
in as we close out the work week. While at surface, high
pressure slides across the region. Expecting fair weather with
seasonal temperatures Friday.

A closed off upper level low over mid-Mississippi Valley is
expected to open as it heads northeastward through the Ohio
Valley and Northeast over the weekend breaking the ridge down.
Two short wave troughs will help move this system. First one
moving across the Rockies and the other rotating about a low
over Hudson's Bay which is expected to draw it northeastward
absorbing into the mean flow. The result will bring a low pressure
system to the Northeast. The best chances for storms are expected
Saturday night as the warm front moves into and across the
region and on Sunday as the cold front sweeps through. Have
chances for thunderstorms limited to slight chance Saturday
night with elevated instability with chances on Sunday with
surface based instability in the warm sector. High pressure is
expected to build in Monday behind the system returning fair
weather to the area. Overall expecting seasonably warm
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front has passed through the region with subsidence and
clearing skies in its wake. Winds are northerly as of 17Z and
gusting 10-15 kts at KALB/KPOU/KPSF. VFR conditions will prevail at
the forecast sites and winds will decrease to around 5 kts as we
head into the overnight hours with some cirrus clouds streaming into
the region late tonight. Low pressure will approach the region from
the southwest Wednesday morning ushering in some moisture and
lowering clouds at KPOU/KPSF/KALB. No LLWS or change in flight
categories are expected before 18z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A more seasonable and less humid airmass takes hold
today and persists through the remainder of the week. RH values
should fall to 35-45 percent this afternoon with a moderate
north-northwesterly breeze gusting to near 25 mph at times.
Similar RH values for Wednesday with lighter southwesterly winds at
5 to 10 mph. Aside from a few showers Wednesday night near the
I-84 corridor, dry weather is expected for the remainder of the
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A much drier and more seasonable airmass takes hold today and
persists through the remainder of the week. Aside from a few
showers Wednesday night near the I-84 corridor, dry weather is
expected for the remainder of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs June 18th...

Albany NY tied its record high with 97 degrees. Old record was
set back in 1957. Last time we hit 97+ degrees was back on July
17, 2012 when it was 98 degrees. Note: records date back to
1874.

Glens Falls NY fell short of the record with a high of 91
degrees. Record is 93 degrees set in 1994. Note: records date
back to 1949.

Poughkeepsie NY set a new record for the date with a high of 94
degrees. Old record was 93 degrees set in 1957. Last time we hit
94+ degrees was back on August 13, 2016 when it was 97 degrees.
Note: records date back to 1931.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/Thompson
NEAR TERM...BGM/Thompson
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...Cebulko
FIRE WEATHER...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...Thompson
CLIMATE...NWS Albany
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