FXUS64 KAMA 261104
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
604 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018
For the 12z TAFs...
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all terminals.
Scattered showers expected through the morning around AMA, with
more numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms remaining over
southeast Texas Panhandle. VFR ceilings at all terminals
expected to lift as the day progresses, with a generally clear sky
overhead tonight. Light east surface winds will trend to
southeast and south this afternoon and evening. No overnight
visibility restrictions expected.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018/
Divergence associated with right entrance region of upper-level jet
streak currently supporting showers and a few thunderstorms across
the southern half of the Texas Panhandle. With mid-level vorticity
maximum poised to move across this same area, will continue with
scattered to numerous showers over this area this morning, with
isolated thunderstorms across southernmost sections. Expect to see
less coverage during the afternoon as 700 mb theta-e advection
diminishes and low-level moisture is eradicated. Upslope flow and
isentropic upglide will continue however, with clouds slowly
clearing from the north this afternoon. This will make for a much
cooler day with highs remaining close to or below 60 degrees
Fahrenheit across southern Texas Panhandle and in the 60s elsewhere.
No additional rain expected this evening and overnight as shortwave
trof passes early this evening with further mid-level drying
Dry northwest flow aloft will help clear the area of cloud cover
as a transient surface ridge helps bring in some chilly Thursday
morning low temperatures. The position of the surface ridge is
expected to be centered south of the Texas Panhandle which suggest
light southwest winds and (ironically) some positive moisture
advection, otherwise lows Thursday morning would be in the 30s
instead of the 40s.
The northwest flow aloft is progged to become more zonal through the
day Thursday as the upper jet streak associated with central NOAM
broad trough lifts north and strengthens across the OH Valley into
the northeast states. Meanwhile, weak height rises are expected
across the Panhandles through the day Thursday resulting in a quick
warm up Thursday afternoon with low 80s being common under mostly
clear skies. Winds will also be on the light side Thursday so all in
all expect a pretty nice day.
The next forecast challenge comes Friday as a cold front attempts to
push south into the Panhandles. Model guidance has been going back
and forth with the latest ECMWF now holding the front up until
Friday night while the GFS brings it in during the day Friday (exact
opposite of what these models suggested this time last night). Even
though the main parent wave is offset north, it should have enough
meridional component to send the front south, and current thinking
is that the air mass will be cool and dense enough to go ahead and
push into the FA. For now relying a blend of the raw and statistical
guidance both for Fridays highs and lows, with the coolest
temperatures across the northwest half of the FA. A few
deterministic models suggest a brief window for isentropic ascent
Friday night along the stalled front which would help moisten the
low levels and perhaps generate a few showers or light drizzle.
Given the lack of upper level support and the dry mid and upper
levels, kept precip chances low.
Another quick warm up is expected Saturday extending into early next
week as high pressure tries to build into the area ahead of the next
western CONUS trough. Southwest flow aloft will begin to take over
going into Monday and Tuesday, but otherwise there are many model
discrepancies a possible tropical disturbance coming out of the
Pacific interacts with the western CONUS trough. For now, the
extended looks mostly dry with above average temperatures and
breezy afternoon winds.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 64 45 81 54 80 / 40 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 70 45 82 52 72 / 5 0 0 0 5
Boise City OK 68 45 83 48 63 / 5 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 67 46 86 57 77 / 20 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 67 45 85 53 77 / 30 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 61 44 80 53 81 / 60 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 62 47 78 54 81 / 60 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 67 44 84 51 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 70 46 85 52 67 / 5 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 60 44 80 52 81 / 70 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 69 44 80 53 78 / 10 0 0 0 5
Pampa TX 64 44 82 54 79 / 20 0 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 63 47 77 54 81 / 40 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 62 48 77 55 83 / 70 0 0 0 0
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