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FXUS64 KAMA 250835
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
335 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite and radar analysis has an upper level shortwave
trough that is over the central to northern Great Plains. An MCS
is located in north central Kansas as of this writing, associated
with this stout low pressure separated from the main flow. Over
the Great Lakes region is high pressure ahead of this shortwave,
with another area of high pressure over the southwest into
California. A secondary shortwave trough is over Alberta and
Montana.

For today, northwest flow will continue over the CWA. Light winds
associated with a surface high over the area and clear skies will
allow daytime temperatures to warm into the upper 90s, and even
into the 100s for the southwest to south central Texas Panhandle.
Low relative humidity around 25 percent or less and plenty of
insolation will allow the canyon floor to warm to 105 today. There
is still a bit of uncertainty about how fast it will warm and if
it will hold at 105 very long. Therefore, will hold off on issuing
a heat advisory for now, but one may still need to be issued.

Monday will be hot as well with much of the southern Texas
Panhandle reaching the triple digits. The Oklahoma Panhandle and
the far northwest Texas Panhandle will be a different story, as a
surface cold front is progged to enter the northern CWA between 1
PM and 6 PM and hold back temperatures during peak heating on
Monday. The H5 shortwave trough mentioned over Alberta and
Montana will have moved east and deepened over the northern Great
Plains by this time. Also, a closed low will have developed over
Canada north of Montana and North Dakota associated with this
trough. Going into the overnight hours Monday into Tuesday
morning, models are hinting at the possibility of a small
perturbation passage aloft in the H5 flow. Have 30 to 40 PoPs
going into Tuesday morning mainly for an H7 theta-e axis running
west and east across central and northern Texas Panhandle into the
Oklahoma Panhandle that will add moisture and elevated instability.
The NBM gave some 50 PoPs in the northwest for the 06Z to 12Z
period Tuesday. Due to model inconsistencies and deterministic
models not being overly thrilled about precip, have scaled back
the PoPs some in the forecast.

With the possibility of thunderstorms and showers Tuesday morning
as well as being behind a cold front, Tuesday is looking to be
much cooler with daytime highs in the low 80s in the north, to
upper 80s in the southern CWA. Tuesday night will be nice and
cool. The H5 closed low pressure system over Canada will move to
the east towards the upper Great Lakes with the trough running
south along the Mississippi River Valley. This will leave our
area under northwest flow aloft with high pressure over the
southwest. Tuesday night, a stout shortwave is progged to move
over the CWA giving us PoPs near 50 across the Panhandles Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Wednesday, temperatures will reach
the mid 80s with more precipitation chances during the day and
increasing in the evening. Thursday is looking to be the warmest
day of the extended period with highs reaching into the mid to
upper 90s. Friday will be in the low 90s before the 80s return on
Saturday. There will be continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms going into next weekend with daytime temperatures
possibly staying in the 80s Saturday and Sunday.

Hoffeditz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 100 69 99 65 85 / 0 0 0 20 20
Beaver OK 94 67 93 61 82 / 5 0 5 40 30
Boise City OK 97 63 90 56 81 / 0 0 5 40 20
Borger TX 101 71 101 65 88 / 0 0 5 30 20
Boys Ranch TX 101 67 100 63 87 / 0 0 5 30 20
Canyon TX 101 68 101 64 87 / 0 0 0 20 20
Clarendon TX 100 70 103 67 87 / 0 0 5 10 20
Dalhart TX 100 63 95 58 84 / 0 0 5 30 20
Guymon OK 96 65 93 59 82 / 0 0 5 40 30
Hereford TX 101 68 102 65 89 / 0 0 0 20 10
Lipscomb TX 97 70 98 64 85 / 5 5 5 30 30
Pampa TX 98 69 98 64 84 / 5 0 5 20 20
Shamrock TX 96 70 101 66 85 / 5 0 0 20 30
Wellington TX 99 70 104 67 89 / 5 0 0 10 20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Lipscomb.

OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Beaver.


&&

$$

11/36
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