FXUS64 KAMA 050541 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1141 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 05/18Z.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/

THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON TUESDAY.

LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES. MAINLY
PREFERRED A 12Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCLUDE
20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW NORTHEAST OF A
GUYMON TO CANADIAN LINE ON TUESDAY.

AT 4 PM CST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS WERE
OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MORE
CLOUD COVER WAS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHILE AN ELONGATED
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM UTAH TO NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...SKY COVER MAY BE TRICKY. BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR COLD CONDITIONS. CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ACCEPTED THE 12Z
MAV/METMOS LOWS IN THE 16 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH MAY BE TOO COLD
IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE LOW LATE TONIGHT...DO NOT THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL BE A COOL BUT QUIET WEATHER DAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. 12Z MAVMOS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S SEEMED
REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING NORTH
WINDS.

TUESDAY...WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. INTRODUCED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WHERE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST CLUSTERING OF QPF VALUES. THE
12/18Z NAM12 AND 12Z GEM INDICATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NOT IMPRESSED WITH MOISTURE RETURN AT
ALL...SO BELIEVE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. IF ANY PRECIPITATION
OCCURS...IT MAY BEGIN BRIEFLY AS LIGHT RAIN BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING TO
LIGHT SNOW AS SATURATION COOLS THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLDER AIR
QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA DUE TO BRISK NORTH WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...KEPT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM 12Z MEXMOS NUMBERS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH
COULD BRING A SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH APPEARS DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MBS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

MBS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$


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