FXUS64 KAMA 211744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1244 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

18z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will be
southwesterly around 12-18 knots before decreasing to around 10
knots this evening. A frontal boundary is expected to shift winds
to the north at 10-15 knots Tuesday morning. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of this boundary as
it sags south between 06z and 15z. Included prob30 at KGUY and
KDHT where confidence is slightly higher compared to KAMA.



PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 441 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

An upper low near the Four Corners region and southern Rockies
this morning will track slowly east and northeast through tonight
as it approaches the Panhandles. Convection is expected to increase
today and tonight with subsidence behind the departing upper
trough on Tuesday resulting in a decrease in convection by Tuesday
morning. However, a second upper trough will approach the
Panhandles from the central and southern Rockies by late Tuesday
as an upper high builds near far West Texas and the southern
Rockies and allows for the upper flow to transition to
northwesterly. A cold front will push slowly through the
forecast area Tuesday before stalling late Tuesday just east and
south of the Panhandles.

The northwesterly flow pattern will allow for a series of
shortwave troughs to track south and east across the forecast area
during the latter half of the week. A continued active and
unsettled weather pattern will persist through the remainder of
the week and into the upcoming weekend. A brief period of
subsidence is expected by late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
one shortwave trough exits the Panhandles and another approaches
from the central Rockies and the southern Plains states by 12Z
Thursday. Drier conditions will be possible late this weekend or
early next week as a broad upper high builds across the Great
Basin region and allows for a more northerly or northeasterly
upper flow across the forecast area.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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