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FXUS64 KAMA 201959
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
259 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Weak upper level disturbance over the eastern Panhandles will
continue to move away tonight. A few showers will still be possible
in its wake this evening, so have kept some slight chances in the
far eastern Panhandles.

Vigorous upper level short wave trough over the northwest U.S. will
continue to plow southeastward and its leading edge will be into
western Oklahoma by late Saturday afternoon. At this point, it looks
like all of the dynamics and moisture associated with this upper
level disturbance will be to our east by the time showers and
thunderstorms develop in the late afternoon. But, will continue to
mention a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in the far
southeast CWA just in case the system is a little slower. A cold
front will push through the region Saturday afternoon and early
evening bringing north winds in the 20 to 30 mph range with higher
gusts. Temperatures may fall into the lower to mid 30s by early
Sunday morning causing another round of frost in the western and
central Panhandles.

A large upper trough will get carved out across the eastern U.S.
through mid week next week. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will
build across the western U.S. This will put the Panhandles in a
northwest flow aloft which will tend to bring an occasional cold
front through.

A strong upper level short wave is expected to dive southward out of
Canada and into the central U.S. by late in the week. This should
open the door for much colder air to spill southward into our area.
Some models want to try to squeeze out some rain and snow across our
northern areas Thursday night, but this is the fist time that some
of the models have agreed on this colder scenario, so things could
change over the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 55 72 39 67 44 / 5 5 0 0 0
Beaver OK 57 73 37 72 43 / 20 5 0 0 0
Boise City OK 49 63 33 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 59 74 41 71 45 / 5 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 55 73 37 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 54 73 39 68 43 / 5 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 57 78 44 70 46 / 5 5 5 0 0
Dalhart TX 51 69 34 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 55 68 36 71 43 / 5 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 54 75 37 69 42 / 0 5 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 61 76 41 71 45 / 20 10 5 0 0
Pampa TX 58 74 41 69 45 / 5 5 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 58 79 44 71 45 / 10 20 10 0 0
Wellington TX 59 83 44 72 45 / 5 20 10 0 0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/15
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