FXUS64 KAMA 101643 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1043 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW PHONE CALLS THIS MORNING AND HAVE HAD OTHER NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR EXTREME NW CWA. SO
UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING THROUGH 6 PM FOR DALLAM AND
CIMARRON COUNTIES...AND EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO TEXAS AND SHERMAN
COUNTIES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. ALSO ADJUSTED THE
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO MATCH UP WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS.

JJB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010/

UPDATE...
RECEIVING REPORTS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH THE DHT ASOS REPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
BAND OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO TRAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST
TX PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLES
UNTIL 18Z TODAY. FEEL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. ALL PUBLIC AND FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT THAT THE TAF SITES WILL GENERALLY SEE INTERMITTENT PRECIP
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW THAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
VFR OR MVFR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS...THESE
CONDITIONS ARE LOCALIZED AND SEAM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONDITIONS LOWER THAN MVFR
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT OF THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z AS THIS IS A VERY PROGRESSIVE LOW.

SJOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF
CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE FURTHER SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW...FEEL BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE TODAY. COLD FRONT ALREADY PUSHED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE TODAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY LIQUID
TODAY...HOWEVER RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...ACCUMULATIONS WITH ONLY LESS
THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE. QUICK MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE
PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS FAR WEST TX THURSDAY AND SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES. ANY PRECIP WILL ALSO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...SO WILL LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS ALL
OF THE PANHANDLES. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY FRIDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY AND INTO FAR WEST TX BY MONDAY. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MUCH
FURTHER TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL FAVOR THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WILL INTRODUCE POPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING. WILL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST TX. COOL SURFACE RIDGE
TO BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIP PREVAIL WITH EACH UPPER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WEST TX. THE LOWEST RH VALUES EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER 20 FT WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 MPH. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN WILL BE ON FRIDAY
WHEN 20 FT WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HARTLEY...SHERMAN.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

08/14


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