FXUS64 KAMA 061730 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1230 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008
.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BUT WRAP AROUND
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
THE IMPACTS AT THE TAFS WILL BE TEMPO MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS /MAINLY AT KAMA AND KGUY/ AND A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS MAY GUST TO 20/25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 00Z...BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2008/
AVIATION...
PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWED RAPID COOLING AND THE
FORMATION OF FOG. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE THIS MORNING.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS TODAY. MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE DAY
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST. TIMING OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND THE IMPROVEMENT
OF CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
WYNNE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2008/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS SHIFTED JUST EAST OF THE CWA...BUT THINKING WRAP AROUND
PRECIP MAY FILL INTO THE PANHANDLE AND BRING MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. IN ADDITION...FOG IS
FILLING INTO ALL BUT THE SW TEXAS PANHANDLE...SO HAVE INSERTED PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WORDING INTO THE ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COOL
FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS MODERATED TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE DRY SLOT IN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIP. WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...WHILE SURFACE WINDS BEGIN VEERING
FROM THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW
DEGREE RISE IN HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND 80 ON WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BENEFIT FROM LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO THINKING LOWS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE NORM.
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY. THE GFS AND EURO PAINT TWO ENTIRELY
DIFFERENT PICTURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
ONE HAND...THE GFS PAINTS AND EARLY ENTRANCE OF WINTER...WHILE THE
EURO HINTS AT ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP BUT IN AN ATMOSPHERE SIMILAR TO
THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE GFS SHOWS A COLD AIR DUMP THAT WOULD DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST AIR IS NOT PROGGED
TO REACH THE PANHANDLES UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR FILTERS DOWN INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS BRINGS 540 DAM
THICKNESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH 2
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOOKING AT THE CLIMO BOOKS...THERE HAVE ONLY
BEEN 2 INSTANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOW FALLING PRIOR TO OCTOBER 14 IN
AMARILLO...ALTHOUGH ONE OF THOSE CASES WITNESSED 3 INCHES. SO
CLIMATOLOGY IS CERTAINLY AGAINST THE SNOW SOLUTION. FURTHERMORE...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS BY FAR THE COLDEST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. IN
FACT...ONLY 2 OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE 540 LINE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS SHOW THICKNESSES
10 TO 20 DAMS GREATER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. AS FOR THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE NOGAPS SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE 540 LINE
DIPS INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. WHILE THE EURO DOES NOT EVEN HINT AT AN
AIRMASS THIS COLD. THE EURO SHOWS A MORE PACIFIC AIRMASS WITH THE LOW
DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA...THEN BECOMES A CLOSED LOW ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEVADA AND WYOMING ON
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...THE EURO SHOWS NO SIGNS OF A COLD FRONT UNTIL
THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. SO...SINCE CLIMATOLOGY ALONG WITH A MAJORITY
OF THE ENSEMBLE GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SNOW IS ALMOST COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...HAVE DECIDED TO MUCK THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
MEX GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE INSTEAD USED THE EURO AS A
FOOTPRINT. THIS MEANS NO COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY OR NO SECONDARY SURGE
OF COLD AIR ON SUNDAY. KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S...AS OPPOSED THE
THE 50S THAT THE MEX SUGGESTS...AND WARMED UP LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
AS WELL. THE ONLY SIMILAR FACTOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.
THE EURO HINTS AT SUFFICIENT UPPER SUPPORT BLEEDING OUT AHEAD OF THE
LOW INTO THE PANHANDLES. PREVIOUS EURO RUNS EVEN SUGGESTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM NORBERT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
PANHANDLES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CURRENT 00Z RUN HAS SHIED
AWAY FROM THE SOLUTION.
JJB
FIRE WEATHER...
LITTLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE PANHANDLES IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
MOIST AIR IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP RH VALUES FALL BELOW 25
PERCENT...BUT ANTICIPATE LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY...WHILE RH VALUES AGAIN FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
JJB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/15
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