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FXUS64 KAMA 272321
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
VFR conditions should prevail for the majority of the TAF period.
Possible shower or isolated thunderstorm through 03z, but will
amend the TAFS if the threat occurs. Wind gusts of near 40-50kts
through 03z can't be ruled out as we have a very dry sub-cloud
layer. Winds should then become less than 12kt for the remainder
of the night. During the late morning hours tomorrow, we expect to
see winds increase above 15kt once again. Scattered to broken
cloud decks around 10kft are expected to move in for the last 6
hours of the TAF period.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 423 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will push across the Panhandles tonight before
stalling south of the forecast area. The frontal boundary is then
forecast to lift northward Friday and Friday night as a warm front
before a secondary surge of even much colder air drives the front
south again. Vigorous closed upper low will develop over the Great
Basin region Friday and then digs south and east near the Four
Corners region by late Friday and then into central and southeast
New Mexico Friday night and Saturday. The upper low is then
expected to lift northeast across the southern Texas Panhandle
Saturday night and Sunday. Convection will diminish this evening
and tonight before developing once again Friday afternoon and
Friday night. As 850 mb temps fall to at or below freezing in the
colder sector of the upper low Saturday and early Sunday, wintry
precipitation is expected to spread northwest to southeast across
much of the northwest half or two-thirds of the forecast area.

Some rain and snow mix or snow in the higher elevations of the
western Oklahoma Panhandle will be possible mainly late Friday
night into Saturday morning, however best chances are expected
Saturday night and early Sunday. Lots of uncertainties on timing
and track of the upper low resulting in low confidence on
snowfall accumulations and locations impacted. Feel best chances
will mainly be across the northern and western portions of the
Texas Panhandle as well as the western and possibly the central
Oklahoma Panhandle. Upper low lifts northeast across the central
Plains states by early next week as upper ridge builds across the
western states. Another northern stream shortwave trough will
track across the central Rockies by late Tuesday and approach the
Panhandles by next Wednesday. Chances for convection will increase
by the middle of next week with the approach of this upper trough
and as a backdoor cold front moves through the forecast area by
next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 45 74 41 44 30 / 10 20 70 70 50
Beaver OK 44 70 40 43 33 / 30 20 90 80 70
Boise City OK 39 62 33 36 27 / 5 30 70 80 70
Borger TX 47 74 42 45 32 / 10 20 80 80 60
Boys Ranch TX 44 73 40 44 30 / 5 20 80 80 50
Canyon TX 46 75 42 46 30 / 5 20 70 70 50
Clarendon TX 50 77 45 50 34 / 10 10 60 60 40
Dalhart TX 42 67 38 39 29 / 5 30 70 80 60
Guymon OK 42 68 38 41 31 / 10 20 80 80 70
Hereford TX 46 75 42 47 30 / 5 20 60 70 50
Lipscomb TX 46 73 43 46 34 / 30 10 80 80 70
Pampa TX 46 73 40 44 31 / 10 20 80 70 60
Shamrock TX 50 77 47 51 36 / 20 5 60 50 40
Wellington TX 52 79 49 55 38 / 10 5 50 50 40
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/11
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