FXUS63 KAPX 210126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
926 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Issued at 925 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Another quiet night out there with no chances for precipitation.
Higher level clouds will continue to pass overhead, associated
with upper troughing and shortwave activity in the Great Lakes.
There is sill some lingering lake clouds hanging on around Oscoda,
with minimal mixing from earlier today over a good chunk of NE
lower. With NE winds persisting tonight into Wednesday morning,
and a low level thermal pattern suggesting continued sufficient
overlake instability, gotta believe that lake clouds will expand
over a good chunk of NE lower, especially late tonight into
Wednesday morning. Could even be some flurries with these clouds.

No change to overnight lows ranging from the single digits in
eastern upper to the teens in most of nrn lower.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Quiet and cool wx continues...

High impact weather protection: none.

High pressure will be anchored in the far northern Ontario/James
Bay/southern Hudson Bay area thru Wednesday. This will maintain a
feed of cool/dry low level air into the region, on ne-erly winds. A
500mb trof will move into the western lakes late on Wednesday. This
feature is contributing to the high cloud shroud over northern
MI. There will continue to be plenty of dry air at and below 12k
ft, so no precip risk. But these periods will be cloudier than the
last several days were, with northern lower MI being cloudier
than eastern upper.

In addition to cirrus, lake-induced stratocu continues to stream
into parts of ne lower off of Huron. This is primarily occurring
where the fetch is its absolute longest, between APN and OSC. This
cloud cover is shrinking somewhat this afternoon, but it is unlikely
to disappear before diurnal heating/mixing cease. After sunset,
stratocu will get the chances to expand again into ne lower MI thru
Wed morning. Some slight chance for a stray flurry or two out of
this. Thinning is expected again Wed afternoon.

Min temps will dip into single digits up in Chippewa Co, where temps
are presently coolest and cloud cover will be at a relative minimum.
Teens to around 20f elsewhere. High temps Wed will be in the 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Hudson Bay high continues to ridge into
the Upper Great Lakes through Friday. Dry air associated with the
high continues over the region and will keep the region
precipitation free as well. Even when a 500 mb shortwave trough
moves over E Lake Superior, ANJ and Lake Huron, the dry air in the
lower part of the soundings is expected to keep precipitation from
falling for Thursday afternoon through Friday. The only concern will
be with NE winds off Lake Huron and the 850 mb temperatures
through the period being -10c or colder, producing flurries.

Primary Forecast concerns...As stated above, with the NE Flow and
the cold 850 mb temperatures, we could get instability and flurries
possible. The concern would be when the 500 mb trough moves through
the region. the extra uplift from the 500 mb low could help to
increase the inversion heights, and moisten the lower part of the
soundings to allow minor to light accumulations. Think that this is
very unlikely as the dry air looks fairly deep so will continue with
the dry forecast through the Wednesday night through Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Friday night through Tuesday

Quiet period of weather continues. Long term models are continuing
the trend with a strong high pressure centered near James Bay
keeping the next storm system farther south and a developing system
over the central Great Plains with a slower and slower approach with
each run. No precipitation chances now until late Monday to mid
Tuesday...depending on varying models. Since there is still a high
level of uncertainty and inconsistencies only have slight chance to
chance pops for late Monday through Tuesday. High temperatures will
generally be in the high 30s to mid 40s, while lows will be in the
teens to low 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Stratus coming off Lake Huron has eroded out of APN, but still
lingers just to the south. Am expecting this cloud to expand back
across much of NE lower, including APN, heading through the
overnight hours and into Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, just
continued higher level cloud passing through. E/NE winds into
Wednesday morning, turning north later in the day.


Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

High pressure in the James Bay area will maintain ne winds into
northern MI. Advisory-level gusts will be seen along the ne lower
MI coastline into early Wednesday. Similar gusts will persist into
this evening along parts of nw lower, particularly the Manitou




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