FXUS63 KAPX 250702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
302 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

High pressure is sliding east of the Great Lakes early this morning,
while mid level ridging and dry air remain over all of the region.
Skies were clear, outside of some spotty cirrus. Winds were light
and turning more out of the SE behind the departing sfc high, and
were picking up just a bit in the BL. This has not allowed for as
cool of a night, with temperatures currently in the mid 40s to mid
50s. All of the moisture and instability remain off to our south and
west into the Plains, ahead of upper troughing and associated low
pressure and stationary front.

More quiet weather again today and tonight. The mid level ridging
and high pressure will continue to track east of nrn Michigan today,
while the aforementioned upper troughing, starts moving into the far
western Great Lakes tonight. We get into a better southerly flow,
both at the sfc and in the upper levels, which will allow us to
bring in some WAA, but most of the forcing, moisture and instability
will remain out to our west through tonight. Not expecting any
precipitation by late tonight, as the low to mid level stay dry, but
clouds will likely to be increasing in clouds aloft due to the WAA
and pretty weak DPVA. So, no precipitation for at least another 24
hrs. Highs will be in the upper half of the 70s to around 80F today,
with lows tonight holding in the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

High impact weather potential: Possible thunderstorms Monday night
into Tuesday morning.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Broad upper level troughing will remain over the Great Lakes region
throughout the forecast period. An upper level low over Hudson Bay
will stretch into the midwest Monday and into the southeastern
states by Wednesday. This will create periods of showers and cloudy
skies over the forecast area through Wednesday and beyond. Monday
will produce the best chances of showers/storms as a cold front
associated with the attendant surface low pressure system near
Hudson Bay approaches from the west across the forecast area with
southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture. Precipitation will begin
with the WAA regime Monday afternoon and then with the cold front
early Tuesday morning. Should actually see some decent rainfall
amounts...from what we've seen in the past few weeks anyway. Models
have between 0.25 to 0.75" of QPF along with forecast soundings with
1.50 to nearly 2.00" PWATS. Late Tuesday evening/night, northern
Michigan becomes dry slotted, with rain clearing out, but with
clouds remaining as broad upper level troughing and lingering
moisture remain overhead. Winds will have a southerly component
through Tuesday afternoon/evening, until aforementioned cold front
moves through and veers winds to more westerly. Winds each day could
gusts up to 20-25 mph, even closer to 30 mph Wednesday with the cold
air advection. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s,
while the westerly winds will advect a bit cooler temperatures for
Wednesday...only reaching into the mid 60s to low 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

High Impact Weather...None is expected.

Broad troughing mentioned in previous forecast period will continue
to produce periodic showers through Friday for northern Michigan.
High pressure and drier air then move in late Friday and should
produce a rather pleasant beginning to the holiday
weekend...although beginning to be a bit cooler, with daytime
temperatures reaching into the upper 60s to near 70.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1149 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

IFR fog at PLN/APN overnight.

High pressure will slowly move east from the eastern lakes, but
will continue to extend ridging into northern MI. Our wx will
remain quiet. Only really concern is for any fog/stratus late
tonight. Fog appears most likely at APN/PLN, near the
moistening influence of Lk Huron. IFR conditions expected at times
late tonight and early Sunday morning. Otherwise VFR.

Light winds tonight, a bit of a se breeze Sunday.


Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

High pressure continues to track east of the Great Lakes today
through tonight, making way for low pressure and a cold front, and
associated showers and chance of thunderstorms, to arrive later
Monday into Tuesday. Winds are turning more out of the SE, and will
start increasing late today and tonight, with spotty low end
advisory speeds possible across far nrn Lakes Michigan and Huron, as
well as Whitefish Bay. There will be better chances for small craft
advisories later Monday/Monday night and into Tuesday. Will go ahead
and just start with the issuance of small craft advisories for late
this afternoon and tonight.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday
for LHZ345>347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday
for LMZ341-342.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday
for LSZ321.


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