FXUS63 KAPX 050858
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 355 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN'S WEATHER
INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING THE STRETCH OF DRY AND RATHER MILD
CONDITIONS. THE WARMTH WILL PEAK ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
SLIDING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
GIVING A FEW LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER WEATHER STILL APPEARS ON
TRACK FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

DL

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 355 AM/...TODAY

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO POKE EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD MI. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY
A WEAK (1021MB) SURFACE LOW...MOVING SE ACROSS LAKE HURON. A STRONG
AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN MI EARLY THIS MORNING IS
FORCING THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS NO PRECIP DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST NOT THIS FAR WEST (EXCEPT FOR A SINGLE SNOW
SHOWER NEAR PRESQUE ISLE LT EARLIER). HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS IS EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MI BEHIND IT. SAULT
ONTARIO HAD SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS/ TEMPS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN...ON WHAT WILL BE ANOTHER RATHER QUIET DAY.

THE CLOUD FORECAST IS...LIKE ALWAYS...TRICKY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
DEPART TO THE SE...AND RIDGING WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH
LAKES BY THIS AFTERNOON. OUR 1000-850MB WINDS WILL START THE MORNING
FROM THE NORTH...BUT WILL BACK WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM WI INTO MI. BUT THE LOW CLOUD DECK
IS QUITE EXTENSIVE AT THE MOMENT. THE NAM BLASTS THE CLOUDS OUT OF
HERE INSANELY FAST (MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR IN NW LOWER/EASTERN UPPER
AT 12Z)...AND IS NOT TAKEN SERIOUSLY. A CONSIDERABLY SLOWER SOLUTION
IS FAVORED...WITH THE MORNING STARTING CLOUDY MOST EVERYWHERE (THE
FAR SOUTH A PARTIAL EXCEPTION)...AND CLEARING FROM SW TO NE...MAINLY
AFTER 18Z.

GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL...BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS
PLANNED THAN PROGGED BY THE MET/MAV...WON/T BE BUMPING THEM UP TOO
MUCH. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE FINE (LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY).

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 355 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...NOT BOTHERING US. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL RUDELY INTRUDE ON OUR WX BEGINNING MONDAY. MEAN UPPER
TROFFING WILL DROP SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA...TOWARD EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NE QUARTILE OF THE US. UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER OUR HEADS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WELL BEFORE THAT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
QUIET/WARM WX WILL CONTINUE THRU FROPA...WITH A SHARP (BUT BRIEF)
COOLDOWN BEHIND. PRECIP/TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...BONE-DRY AIRMASS TONIGHT...WITH AREA STILL
UNDERNEATH FLATTISH 500MB RIDGING...AND WITH DRY/MILD WESTERLY
1000-850MB WINDS. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE (2C) WILL BE OVERHEAD BY DAWN.
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS UP ENOUGH TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MILD...20S
INLAND...NEAR 30F NEAR LAKE MI. COLD FRONT REACHES EASTERN UPPER MI
BY MIDDAY MONDAY...AND NEARS SAGINAW BAY BY 00Z. NO DEEP MOISTURE
WHATSOEVER...WITH THE UPPER TROF ONLY NEARING THE NORTH SHORE OF
SUPERIOR. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE
FRONT...WITH NEAR-SATURATION UP TO 875MB. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE MORNING...AND IN THE SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...COLD ADVECTION STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT IN NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON (THOUGH THIS IS
ALREADY COVERED). WILL FAVOR WARM END OF GUIDANCE (MAV) DESPITE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH
MONDAY EVENING. LARGE (1043MB) HIGH PRESSURE IN S CENTRAL CANADA
BUILDS SE-WARD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. RIDGING EXTENDS EAST FROM
THE HIGH...JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY WORKING
SOUTH UNTIL IT/S OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING
FROM -10C SOUTH TO -15C NORTH BY DAYBREAK. BUT IT/S NOT MOIST
(850-700MB RH 50-60 PERCENT EARLY...LOWERING BELOW 40 PERCENT
LATE)...AND AN INITIAL N/NNW FETCH BECOMES N/NNE BY MORNING. SO
DESPITE DELTA T/S POKING WELL INTO THE TEENS...DRY AIR/UNFAVORABLE
FETCHES PRECLUDE MORE THAN SMALL CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
IN FAR WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
TUESDAY...BUT WITH SHARP ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE 1000-850MB
WINDS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ARRIVES...AND 850-700MB RH CONTINUES TO
DRY BELOW 20 PERCENT. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MUCH LAKE EFFECT
DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY...AND ONLY SMALL (AND DWINDLING) POPS
WARRANTED IN NNE FLOW AREAS. DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
1000-850MB WINDS KEEPING WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT CAN DEVELOP OUT OVER
THE LAKES.

MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SINGLE DIGITS FAR EASTERN UPPER TO AROUND
20F. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY TEENS TO MID 20S. MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT QUITE
CHILLY...NEAR ZERO TO MID TEENS.

JZ

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL LOOKING LIKE A
QUICK SHOT OF MUCH COLDER WX WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL COME COURTESY OF
BRIEF BUT STRONG AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGING...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF CONSOLIDATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
POLAR VORTEX TOWARD ITS MUCH MORE CLIMO-FAVORED LOCATION ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. IN ADVANCE OF ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER WX...EXPANSIVE LOW
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WX SCENE INTO
WED AND EARLY THU...FAVORING A CONTINUED DECENT STRETCH OF EARLY
FEBRUARY WX WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE.
WILL OF COURSE HAVE TO WATCH SNEAKY POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS/
STRATOCU STUCK BENEATH LINGERING INVERSION DURING THIS MIDWEEK
PERIOD...THOUGH GIVEN PLETHORA OF DRY AIR ALL THROUGHOUT THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO GOING OPTIMISTIC FCST
OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS AT OR ABOVE CLIMO.

PER GFS/ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BLEND...STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE AREA LATER THU AFTN INTO THU EVENING. WILL PROBABLY SEE
A QUICK ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER FORCING BRIEFLY DEEPEN...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY COME INTO PLAY. THEREAFTER...
GUIDANCE REALLY IS JUST ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF COLDEST CORE OF AIR AND WHETHER THE TRULY ARCTIC AIR
EVER REALLY BLEEDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. PER PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND STRONG (HARD TO IGNORE AS WELL) TRENDS THIS
SEASON...GUT FEELING IS WE ARE BEING SET UP FOR A QUICK SHOT (2 TO
MAYBE 3 DAYS) OF MUCH COLDER WX ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
SATURDAY. LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD...THERE ARE INCREASING
INDICATIONS OF A RAPID RETURN TO NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
BY EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS STRONG PACIFIC "FIRE HOSE" PATTERN
ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE COUNTRY AND LOCKS THE COLDEST AIR BACK
NORTH. GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE LED THE WAY THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS
IDEA...AND NICE TO SEE THE 04/12Z ECMWF STARTING TO CATCH ON AS
WELL. IN THE MEANTIME...STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME...THOUGH EXACT
FLOW PATTERN IS HIGHLY IN QUESTION. PER TRAJECTORY OF COLD AIR
DUMP...SUSPECT SOMETHING LIKE A MEAN NORTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
WIN OUT...THOUGH GOING CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME WILL WORK JUST
FINE.

LAWRENCE

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 355 AM/

NORTH WINDS BEHIND A PASSING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BACK TO
THE WEST TODAY AND INCREASE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN LAKES. WINDS/WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AS
SOON AS LATE AFTERNOON ON FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI/HURON...AND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THESE WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH ON LAKE MI...BUT THOSE CAN BE ISSUED
LATER AS NEEDED.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MI MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE RETURN OF COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1135 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG BUT
MOISTURE-STARVED SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. LOWER
CLOUDS MAY WELL TAKE A GOOD DEAL OF TIME TO SCATTER OUT BENEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH BACKING FLOW
REGIME MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER THINGS FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MIDDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY
BELOW 10 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A POSSIBILITY AROUND APN
LATER TONIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT.

LAWRENCE/MR

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
MONDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$



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