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FXUS63 KAPX 181856
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
256 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...Milder times ahead...

High impact weather potential: Nothing.

Pattern synopsis: Northwest flow continues overhead as area remains
along southeast extent of northeast NOAM centered trough axis.
Plenty of weak and moisture starved shortwaves rotating within the
broader flow regime, one of which is cutting southeast across
eastern upper Michigan early this afternoon. Other weak waves
lurking just upstream, the most defined one about set to drop into
the the northern Plains, with much more subtle wave following its
predecessor across central Ontario. Much like yesterday, weak QG
support above a deepening mixed layer/development of weak surface
based instability is kicking off a few rain and snow showers, with
the "best" coverage centered across easter upper Michigan where low
level convergence is maximized. And, like yesterday, not really a
big deal at all with limited moisture and limited convective cloud
depths keeping precipitation amounts very light. Temperatures about
running on par for what they should be for this time of year, with
current readings punching well up into the 30s.

Not much change heading through tonight as the progressive mid level
flow pattern continues. Departure of lead shortwave quickly this
afternoon is replaced by that Ontario wave as we head toward Tuesday
morning.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing light shower
potential and cloud/temperature trends.

Details: Quick loss of instability will bring an end to diurnally
driven clouds/showers quickly this evening. Support for low level
convergence axis to drop southeast into northwest lower Michigan
continues, suggesting the threat for a few spotty snow showers
lingering this evening in that area. Arrival of that secondary wave
may bring a few snow showers to areas north of the big bridge toward
Tuesday morning, although latest guidance trends suggest any
precipitation remain north of the area. Otherwise, it will be a dry
night for most, and with a bit of lingering cloud cover and a more
modified overhead airmass, temperatures should be at least a few
degrees "warmer" than those experienced the last few nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...Mild temperatures with seasonal late winter precipitation...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minor, with slowly warming
temperatures Wednesday and wintry pcpn making for some possible
slippery roads early, with a period of freezing drizzle possible
early Thursday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Precipitation type and chances
through the period with slowly moderating temperatures.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Nearly zonal upper flow and area of high
pressure over the eastern Great Lakes to begin the work week will
push east, while an upper ridge and clipper drop into the Great
Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. 850mb temps in this pattern will fall
from around -2c early Wednesday to around -8c Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Will continue a mainly dry forecast Tuesday across northern Michigan
with some sun, as model soundings show limited mstr over the region
as high pressure lingers over the eastern Great Lakes. Pcpn chances
will increase across the entire northern Great Lakes region
Wednesday as a clipper drops in across wrn Lake Superior. 850/500mb
qvectors show the strongest convergence with the approaching clipper
affecting northern Michigan through Wednesday afternoon. Pcpn type
will be difficult Wednesday with increasing moisture and cooing
temperatures through the lowest portion of the column. Soundings
show warm low lvls with inversion heights between 1100ft and 2000ft
early Wednesday in advance of the clipper, before lw lvl inversions
drop below 1k ft Wednesday aftn as a deepening upper trough
settlings into the state. Overall will trend toward a wintry mix of
rain and snow over much of northern Michigan Wednesday (except for a
small period of mainly rain into the afternoon before colder air
drops south). Pcpn will become limited Wednesday evening as lift
associated with the clipper pushes east, while drier air moves in at
mid and upper lvls. Model soundings show a period of freezing
drizzle possible early Thursday, with abundant mstr lingering in low
lvls within temps between 0c and -10c while dry air moves in aloft.
Another shot of wintry mixed pcpn increases across northern Michigan
Thursday, in response to another clipper and upper trough digging
into the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Upper trough over the Atlantic Coast Friday will push east, while
nearly zonal 500mb flow develops over the Great Lakes. 850mb temps
in this pattern will warm from -8c Friday to between 0c and +2c by
the weekend, which will generate nearly seasonal afternoon highs in
the mid 40s Friday, before warming to above normal readings in the
50s for the weekend and begin the upcoming work week. Pcpn chances
will be limited through much of the period as high pressure settles
over the region. The best chance for pcpn will be later Monday into
Tuesday as a developing system in the southern Plains lifts toward
the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

VFR conditions to continue through Tuesday, with just some passing
relatively high based stcu/cu. May see an isolated rain/snow
shower, but with minimal impacts if they do occur. Light winds
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Marine forecast season has begun. And...it starts off a quiet one
with maintenance of a weak pressure gradient resulting in sub-
advisory winds through Tuesday. Cold front dropping southeast out of
Canada will likely bring our first small craft advisories of the
season as early as Tuesday night as gusty southwest winds develop
out ahead of it. Appears strongest winds will target northern Lake
Michigan. Gusty winds will continue through much of Wednesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...SR
LONG TERM...SR
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB
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