FXUS63 KAPX 171856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
256 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Issued at 1036 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High pressure centered across northern Minnesota will be in
control of the weather across the region today into Wednesday.
However...there is some cloudiness moving in from the north per
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery. Plus it will be unstable enough
aloft to produce some cumulus clouds inland through mid-afternoon.
So went ahead and increased cloudiness some but only to partly
cloudy. Forecast highs in the lower and middle 70s look on track.
Lastly, it will be a bit breezy due to some wind aloft mixing
down to the surface.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Yesterday's cold front continues to bring in cooler and less humid
air to nrn Michigan. PWATS have fallen to around 0.70", H8 temps
ranged from +9C in eastern upper, to the low teens toward Saginaw
Bay. At 925mb, temperatures ranged from 15C north to 17C south.
Skies were clear, outside of a band of mid level clouds in nrn lower
Michigan that was dissipating with time. These clouds were brought
on by a shortwave rotating through the Great Lakes, ahead of a dry
secondary cold front moving into nrn Michigan attm. Temperatures
have fallen into the mid and upper 50s. High pressure was centered
over srn Manitoba and was heading our way.

The aforementioned high pressure will continue to track toward nrn
Michigan, settling in almost overhead by daybreak Wednesday. NW
winds may be just a little gusty today, before going light/near calm
overnight. The continued cold advection will ultimately take H8
temperatures down to +8C/+9C most everywhere, while 925mb readings
will be +15C to +17C. With lake temperatures +19C/+20C, this results
in delta T's that almost get to where lake clouds might be entering
the picture. Some hi-res guidance is actually hinting at this
occurring. There will at least be some moisture flux off the Great
Lakes to result in a shallow cu field, downwind of the Lakes. Doubt
anything will go mostly cloudy based on fcst soundings, so it's
generally going to be mostly/partly sunny today with high
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s most areas, upper 70s in
downsloping region of NE lower. Lows tonight will fall to expected
mixed out dewpoints today, in the mid and upper 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Wednesday through Thursday night

Wednesday will see the center of a Canadian high passing over nrn
Michigan. This will result in another quiet and dry day with mostly
sunny skies. Lake breezes should develop given the light surface
winds and overall light synoptic flow ahead of a shortwave ridge
poking over the great lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds
start to shift out of the south into Thursday as the shortwave ridge
axis passes overhead and the surface high pushes east. Warmer air
moves in for Thursday, with highs creeping back up into the low 80s.
Thursday also sees an upper level low moving from the northern
Rockies toward Lake Superior...with its associated surface low set
to track from the Dakotas toward the the UP on Friday. Moisture
increases rapidly Thursday night into Friday, bringing an increase
in cloud cover ahead of this next system.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Potential for rain throughout much of

An upper level jet around 80 knots will be positioned over the
northern Rockies late week, supporting the development of a potent
surface low in its left exit region. This system will bring good
rain chances from Friday through Sunday. Many things still need to
be pinned down with this sytem including intensity and exact track
of the low as it wobbles over Michigan. How long the low lingers
over the area will depend on how progressive the system is which in
turn depends on the strength/placement of the ridge off the Atlantic
coast...and whether or not the low phases with energy dropping down
out of canadian flow over Hudson Bay. Things dry out to start next
week as the low starts to slowly pull away from the area.
Temperatures should be seasonable in the mid to upper 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High pressure will continue to build into northern Michigan
through Wednesday. All taf sites should be vfr through the taf
period with only an outside shot of patchy fog late tonight into
early Wednesday. Winds will be a little gusty through this
afternoon then diminish this evening. Few-sct cumulus will
dissipate this evening as well.


Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Yesterday's cold frontal passage have turned winds out of the NW,
while also still continuing to draw in much cooler air. The pressure
gradient is tight enough into this evening while there is some
shallow overlake instability, to result in lower end small craft
advisory winds over Whitefish Bay/St. Marys and most of the Lake
Huron nearshore waters. High pressure will settle in over the region
late tonight, before exiting east with a southerly return flow
developing Wednesday night through Thursday. No wind/waves issues
over this time.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ346>348.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.


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