FXUS63 KAPX 151946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
346 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure is slowly
pushing into western Quebec this afternoon with a trailing cold
front continuing to make progress across northeast lower MI. Much
drier deep layer air is arriving from the north as surface high
pressure gradually sags into the northern Great Lakes. This trend is
expected to continue into tonight with lingering shower activity and
cloud cover exiting to the east/southeast through the remainder of
the daylight hours.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Lingering shower/drizzle
chances early and cloud cover trends.

Scattered showers continue to linger across southern parts of the
forecast area early this afternoon (primarily along and south of M-
55) with pockets of drizzle extending further north and west toward
the M-72 corridor as the aforementioned cold front continues to trek
off to the east-southeast. Stubborn low clouds remain in place south
of M-32 with increasing sunshine across the Tip of the Mitt and
abundant sunshine north of the Mackinac Bridge. Cloud cover is
expected to continue to erode while shifting off to the southeast
through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours
leaving mainly clear skies under weak north flow for the upcoming
overnight hours. Low temperatures expected to vary from the low-
mid 40s area-wide, but wouldn't be completely surprised to wake up
tomorrow morning to a few locations in the upper 30s given a
decent radiational cooling setup overnight.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The cold front that moved through today,
stalls near the Indiana border and remains there through Monday
Tuesday morning. The ECMWF prints out QPF from time to time, but for
the most part, the majority of the models remain dry, especially the
convection allowing models. The chance of rain doesn't look like it
would do anything until late in the day on Tuesday, maybe in NE
Lower if the low level moisture can pool a bit and a lake breeze off
Lake Huron can get inland.

Primary Forecast Concerns...The chances for rain are the main issue,
and over the next 60 hours, it doesn't look like much. As mentioned
before, there are some times with the 500 mb jet over us and the
front to the south, that there will be some very low chances off and
on. While the bulk of the time will be dry, a few showers can't be


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

High Impact Weather Potential...Things look minimal through the
forecast period.

Extended (Tuesday night through Saturday)...Through Wednesday, it
looks like our pattern will remain as the longwave trough continues
over the Upper Great Lakes. The models are now in better agreement
for Wednesday night through about Friday night, before the models
disagree on Saturday with the timing of the next system. So
Wednesday night will have a chance for showers in the evening, but
clears out Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon could have some
showers as a 500 mb shortwave trough moves through the region. The
GFS is a little more suppressed than the ECMWF with the
precipitation, so with the 500 mb trough nearby, will allow for some
showers Thursday night into Friday. The models are advertising a
dirty ridge Friday night. Saturday, a sfc low moves into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley, and the Upper Great Lakes, so will have a chance
for rain Saturday.

Think that while there's a chance for rain in much of the period,
that there will be dry periods, but with this minimally convective
pattern for the Upper Great Lakes, will have low chance of showers
through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

A cold front continues to drop southeast across northern Michigan
early this afternoon, tied to low pressure pressing eastward across
Ontario. Lingering MVFR/IFR conditions and patchy drizzle at MBL,
TVC AND APN will give way to VFR conditions through the
afternoon, as is already the case at PLN as deep layer drying from
north to south continues behind the aforementioned front. Weak
high pressure settles in over the Great Lakes tonight, and remains
in place well into the upcoming work week.


Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

High pressure will gradually continue to settle atop the western
Great Lakes through the remainder of the weekend as any lingering
low clouds and associated light/scattered shower activity comes to
an end. This is expected to lead to minimal wind/wave concerns
across northern Michigan through at least early this week.




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