FXUS63 KARX 210357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1057 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Main forecast concerns in the short term are on windy conditions
Tuesday into Tuesday night along with showers and a few

A vigorous trough lifts north out of the Central Plains late tonight
into Tuesday. Scattered showers and a fews storms are possible south
of I-90 late tonight along the warm air advection ahead of the
wave. The main band of showers and possibly some embedded
thunderstorms moves through the area late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. With the strong low pressure moving in, plan on
strong southeast winds Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening when
wind gusts could reach 40 to 45 mph. By the time the rain ends
late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts
look to range from around 1 inch over portions of northeast Iowa
to around three tenths of an inch over north central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Warmer weather on the way by midweek. Additional chances for
showers and storms the remainder of the week into the weekend.

Warmer temperatures finally work into the region on Wednesday as
the low pressure system fills and lifts off to the northeast. A
weak warm front develops over north central Wisconsin by
Wednesday afternoon and we may see some showers and storms develop
across these areas. If enough CAPE builds, cannot rule out a few
stronger storms near the front, but confidence is low that storms
will even develop. We should then see a little dry time Wednesday
night into Thursday. Another trough moves through the region
Thursday night through Friday with continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms. The good news is, it appears the warmer
temperatures are here to stay for the end of the week. We may see
some more dry time Saturday into Sunday, depending on where a warm
front sets up across the region. Active weather looks to return
on Monday as southwest flow aloft sets up across the region with
more chances for showers and thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

As the leading showers have been advance northeast across Missouri
this evening, they have been tracking a little farther to the east
than previously expected. As a result, expecting these to miss the
area with at most some sprinkles for areas south of the airports
overnight. The latest hi-res meso-scale models suggest much of
Tuesday morning should be dry as there will not be enough forcing
to support anything more than sprinkles. However, during the
afternoon, the forcing looks to increase, especially late, as the
main short wave trough advances toward the area. This forcing
will be aided by some weak frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer
along with isentropic up glide on the 300K surface. Expecting the
showers to start impacting the airports by mid-afternoon and
initially it should remain VFR. However, as it continues to rain,
look for ceilings to come down to MVFR by late afternoon/early
evening and then remain down through the rest of the evening. The
showers could be heavy enough to also produce some MVFR
visibilities at times during the evening.




SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
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