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FXUS63 KARX 252357
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
657 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

High pressure was overhead today, providing sunny and seasonably
mild conditions. Temperatures as of 2 pm were in the middle 50s to
the lower 60s.

The ridge of high pressure will drift east of the region while a
cold front makes its way across the Northern Plains. this will set
up a light southerly flow over the region with some increase in
mid/high cloud toward morning. Otherwise, lows tonight are expected
to bottom out in the middle/upper 30s.

The cold front will push east into the area during the afternoon for
a chance of showers. The lower boundary layer looks pretty dry, so
most of these showers could evaporate before reaching the ground
(virga). Also, inverted-v environment will be conducive for mixing
down higher wind gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range. Plan on
temperatures topping off in the 60s.

A chance of showers will be seen during the evening from central
into far southwest WI before the front departs east. Skies will
clear through the rest of the night in while another very transitory
ridge of high pressure builds in. Plan on lows in the upper 20s to
the middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Models showing a fairly potent pv-anomaly dropping southeast across
northern/eastern WI Friday for another chance of showers mainly
northeast of I-94. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out as mid-
level lapse rates steepen with the incoming mid-level trough during
peak heating. Soundings showing a somewhat inverted-v environment
once again with winds at the top of the mixed layer in the
30/potentially 40kt range. So, will have to watch for some higher
gusts with this convection and with tightening surface pressure
gradient associated with deepening cyclogenesis. Otherwise, look for
highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Cooler/sunny day on tap for Saturday as high pressure builds in from
Canada. Plan on highs in the 50s with light north winds. Dry with
some warming expected for Sunday as south winds kick in on the
backside of the departing high. Look for highs rebounding back into
the 60s.

Southwest flow aloft and incoming low pressure will increase
shower/thunderstorm chances Monday through Wednesday. Warming also
expected in the southwest flow with highs Monday and Tuesday
expected to top off in the 70s. Some slight cooling expected
Wednesday behind a passing cold front with highs backing down into
the middle 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with the
potential for MVFR conditions late Thursday afternoon. A cold
front will move across the region during the afternoon on
Thursday. Ahead of the front plan on increasing mid to high level
clouds then there could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings along
and just behind the front. Also, light rain is possible at the TAF
sites with the passage of the front but conditions are not
expected to go any lower than MVFR, with mainly VFR conditions
prevailing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Flood warnings are in effect for portions of the Mississippi River
and the Yellow River at Necedah. Minor to possibly moderate flooding
is expected into the first week of May. See the latest flood
statements for more detailed information.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Wetenkamp
HYDROLOGY...DAS
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