FXUS61 KBGM 150145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
945 PM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STORM
WILL DEPART...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN...AND BRING DRY
MILDER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADARS AT 0130Z SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RETURNS ACROSS
NRN/ERN NY BACK THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. ACTIVITY HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD AND TEND TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS CWA LATER TONIGHT EXPECT COVERAGE TO
INCREASE. WILL GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
WORDING. RAISED MINS A COUPLE DEGREES WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
MID/UPR 30S. STILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS CNTRL NY
AND NE PA. ONLY MINOR ACCUMS AT BEST, A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN CLOSED LOW EDGES FARTHER OFF THE COAST
MON...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FOR
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS (MOSTLY RAIN...BUT WITH SOME EARLY
MORNING/LATE EVENING WET SNOW STILL POSSIBLE ON THE HILLTOPS).

FOR TUE AND WED...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...AS RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER READINGS (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW FAIRLY ZONAL WITH
RIDGE BUILDING LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS IN
THE MID WEST. BY SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROF REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG WITH SFC COLD FRONT NEAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON
SATURDAY, SFC LOW PRES IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WRN/NRN CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST N/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS A
STALLED SFC LOW SPINS OFF THE EAST COAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TAF VALID
TIME. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KRME/KSYR WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING THEN LIFT BY MID MORNING.
AT KITH/KBGM/KAVP, IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NORMALLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL PRONE TIMES OF 09Z-13Z. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH
THE TIME FRAME THAT SCATTERED PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT
TERMINALS.

NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH FLOW MORE EASTERLY
AT KRME/KSYR AND GUSTING TO 18 KNOTS. N/NE WINDS ON MONDAY AT 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 18 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NGT TO FRI...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED AT 11 AM...
BASED ON THE LATEST RFC FORECASTS AND RIVER LEVEL
TRENDS...WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR WAVERLY AND WILKES-BARRE.
IT APPEARS THAT WATER LEVELS WILL STAY UNDER FS AT BOTH
SITES...EVEN WITH SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM THE CHEMUNG
BASIN.

NO OTHER MAIN STEM FLOODING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...



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