FXUS61 KBGM 172308
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
608 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018
A weak storm system will slide into the Mid Atlantic on Sunday
and Monday. This storm will bring a few inches of snow to NY and
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM update...
A southward moving trough will enter NY and bring scattered
light snow showers or flurries to the region tonight. In
addition, a band of light lake effect snow will continue to
affect far northern portions of our forecast area. Light snow
accumulations are forecast. Temperatures will dip into the 20s.
An open wave storm will swing through the Mid-Atlantic into PA
Sunday and Sunday night. This storm will spread light snow
across the region, mainly from the Twin Tiers southward.
The models have come in lighter with the QPF. Our updated
forecast calls for 1 to 2 inches of accumulation by Monday
Temperatures will climb into the lower and middle-30s on Sunday,
then fall to between 25 and 30 degrees Sunday night.
1040 AM update...
West winds traveling over the lakes will keep light lake effect
rain and snow showers over portions of our region through today.
For the morning update, we added chance POPs for lake effect
showers extending off Lake Erie toward the Southern Tier, as
indicated by the current radar depiction.
We also increased temperatures this afternoon as several valley
locations are already near their predicted maximums.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM Update...
Our area will be sandwiched between two weak frontal zones,
with small chances of precipitation at times edging into the
The first boundary, lingering from Sunday-Sunday night, will
drift slightly off to the southeast before stalling as another
weak wave moves along the front. Brief light precipitation may
result mainly for Northeast PA to Catskills NY. Daytime
temperatures will be warm enough for a mix of rain and snow, or
even just rain in the Wyoming Valley region during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Little if any snow accumulation
even where that occurs. Expect mainly dry weather for most of
Central NY. Highs of mid 30s to lower 40s.
That first boundary will more or less stay in place and lose
definition, with a skiff of light snow possible Tuesday night
for Northeast PA to Catskills. However, another one will
approach late Monday night into Tuesday as weak low pressure
develops over the eastern Great Lakes and drifts to New England
as an upper wave swings by our region. Brief lobe of deeper
moisture will accompany the upper wave, which along with lake
enhancement as the low passes and initiates northwest wind
behind the second front, will cause snow showers to develop
especially in Central New York. Temperatures will not be very
cold, even aloft, so amounts will be limited to only about an
inch or less. Highs Tuesday will be mainly 30s, followed by lows
of upper teens-low 20s Tuesday night. This is milder than
previously forecast, because flow will immediately
flatten/neutralize ahead of an apparent much colder push of air
coming in the long term period.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM Update...
Models started trending colder during runs last night, and have
done so even more with runs today, with better agreement and
higher confidence. Very anomalous lobe of cold air appears
likely to swing out of Canada and across the Northeast on the
Thanksgiving Holiday, after a strong Arctic front blasts through
on Wednesday with snow showers/possible squalls. Model numbers
are near daily record cold maximums Thursday, and close to
record lows for Thursday night as well. Probably some scattered
flurries Thursday as well, though the dendritic growth layer
will basically be on the ground. It will be possible, however,
for Finger Lakes to initiate thin lake effect bands given the
Arctic air and north-northwest flow.
We finally see a warming trend by Friday onward as strong
southwesterly flow occurs. The next weather system approaches
by Saturday bringing chances for rain showers as high
temperatures rise into the 40s.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mix of low VFR and MVFR ceilings will remain over the region
tonight as lake effect snow showers continue to skirt the KRME
and KSYR terminals before 06Z tonight.
MVFR and fuel alternate required ceilings will develop Sunday
morning as an approaching low pressure system moves through the
Mid- Atlantic. Light snow will spread into KAVP, KBGM, KELM,
and KITH between 15z and 18z. Precip should remain mostly snow
in NY...but likely mix with and possibly change to rain at KAVP
after 18Z. Precipitation should begin to taper off close to 00Z.
Sunday night into Monday morning...Low pressure passing to our
south with allow the light snow in central NY to taper off...but
the front will linger across ne PA with the rain changing back
to snow by early Monday morning.
Monday through Tuesday... Improving to VFR on Monday then
restrictions with snow showers Monday night and Tuesday.
Wednesday...Generally VFR conditions with scattered light snow
showers north of KITH.
Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions.
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