FXUS61 KBGM 050835
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
335 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND BRING
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO THE TUG HILL AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SHRP UPR WV DROPS INTO THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
TODAY...WITH LTL WX. LL ARE QUIET DRY WITH SFC HIPRES RDG AND
MRGNLY COLD AIR. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE OVER THE NRN
ZONES...WHERE A LTL MORE MOISTURE IS AVBL. OTRW...DRY FCST WITH
INCRSG SUN AS THE WV DROPS OFF TO THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MORE QUIET WX IN THE SHRT TERM AS NRN STREAM ENERGY STAYS
NORTH...AND DEEP SRN STREAM MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH. LRG SFC HIPRES
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY NOSES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
KEEPING THE AREA DRY YET IN A MILD WLY FLOW. ONLY SYSTEM OF NOTE
IN THE PD IS A SHALLOW COLD FNT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TUE.
FNT WILL BRING CLDS AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...ESP OVER THE
FINGER LAKES AS THE FLOW WITH THE CAA IS MORE NLY THAN NW.
HWVR...AIR IS JUST NOT ALL THAT COLD SO LE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND PRBLY COMFINED TO THE AREA OF THE FNT WITH THE ENHANCED LIFT.

TEMPS WILL CONT WELL ABV NRML IN THE PD. MODEL GUID WAS IN GOOD
GNRL AGREEMENT FOR THE PD SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST IS
HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 330 PM SAT... OVERALL...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHG TO THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SEEN WITH THE MODELS AGAIN TODAY.
EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT A VORTEX WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE NEAR HUDSON'S BAY...WITH UPPER-LVL RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL KEEP FAST MOVG NRN STREAM DISTURBANCES COMING
ACRS NY/PA ABT EVERY 24-36 HRS...IT WILL ALSO KEEP THE GOMEX CUT
OFF. THIS FACTOR...IN COMBINATION WITH A CONTINUED LACK OF SIG HI-
LAT BLOCKING OVER GREENLAND/NWRN ATLANTIC...SHOULD KEEP ANY MAJOR
STORMS/HVY PCPN EVENTS FROM IMPACTING OUR FA THIS PD. ALSO...GIVEN
THE LACK OF SNOW COVER...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN N OF THE CANADA/U.S. BORDER...TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABV SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEB.

DAILY WX-WISE...A FAST MOVG UPPER-LVL TROUGH/SFC WAVE ARE EXPECTED
TO UNDERCUT THE ABV MENTIONED ERN CANADIAN VORTEX AND TRACK
THROUGH THE MID-ATL RGN WED...OR PERHAPS EARLY THU. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING A SHOT OF LGT SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
PCPN IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. BOTTOM LN THOUGH...THIS SYSTEM SHOULDN'T
HAVE TIME TO PICK UP MUCH MOIST...SO AGN ANY SNOW LOOKS LIGHT.

OTHERWISE (FROM LATER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND)...QUICK MOVG IMPULSES
IN THE NRN STREAM WILL REINFORCE POLAR ORIGIN AIR MASSES (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S).
OVERALL...THESE AIR MASSES LOOK INSUFFICIENTLY COLD/MOIST TO
GENERATE MUCH OF A LAKE RESPONSE...SO JUST OCNL FLRYS/-SHSN WILL
BE CALLED FOR IN THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1 AM SUN... PATCHY MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
SOME OF THE NY TAF SITES TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THRU SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NNE THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO NW THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KTS OR
LESS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT-TUE NGT...PSBL MVFR/IFR IN LAKE-EFFECT SHSN.

WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING IN LGT SNOW.

THU...MVFR/IFR PSBL IN LGT SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MSE



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