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FXUS61 KBGM 060246
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1046 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and some thunderstorms will be possible
tonight through Saturday as a weak cold front moves through the
area. High pressure in control Sunday through Wednesday will
then bring several days of dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1040 PM Update:

Main change with this update was to increase PoPs for the next
few hours in the Finger Lakes region as a few thunderstorms
have popped up there. Elsewhere, have decreased PoPs a bit for
the next few hours since shower activity has not been present
across the majority of the area. Also made minor adjustments to
PoPs for the morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday.

Afternoon Discussion:

Late tonight, a surface low moving through Quebec will drag a
cold front through our area and touch off additional showers -
mainly north of the PA border. As soundings indicate that we
will still be working with some elevated instability, thunder
will be possible.

After the front moves out early Saturday, a chance for showers
and for some thunder will linger mainly north of the Thruway as
the upper level low passes through. Expect otherwise breezy and
comparatively cooler conditions Saturday. Temperatures starting
off in the 60s and peak in the 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures
Saturday night fall back into the 50s with a surge of chilly
air behind the exiting system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
No changes to the discussion below with the afternoon forecast
package.

Dry Canadian high pressure will dominate for a stunningly dry
and quiet period, with generally below average temperatures.High
pressure will build in from Canada for the remainder of the
weekend. It will be a mostly sunny and fresh Sunday, with highs
of upper 60s-lower 70s and northwest winds gusting to 15-20 mph.
This will be followed by decoupling/calming wind and strong
radiational cooling to send temperatures well into the 40s
Sunday night.

High pressure will be fully in control Monday, with warm air
advection beginning aloft yet a very stable atmospheric profile.
This will limiting moderation in temperatures to mainly 70s for
highs, even under full sunshine. Lowest elevations of Northeast
Pennsylvania might manage 80 degrees. This will be followed by
lows of upper 40s-mid 50s Monday night, with perhaps some high
cirrus from a weak passing wave aloft during otherwise clear and
quiet conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm and dry ridge will keep things quiet through Wednesday,
before slowly moving front attempts to edge our way late week.

Significant 500mb height rises occur as a rather amplified warm
ridge pivots over from the Ohio Valley to the MidAtlantic-
Northeast states as we head into midweek. Highs both Tuesday and
Wednesday are likely to be well into the 80s for most locations;
even upper 80s at lower elevations by Wednesday. Dewpoints will
only creep up gradually through the 50s Tuesday to near 60
Wednesday. In addition to keeping the weather dry, this will
also prevent the humidity from feeling oppressive even with the
warm temperatures.

Wednesday night-Thursday and beyond, models depict the
amplified ridge slowly getting squeezed by a retrograding upper
low in the western Atlantic, and a trough edging in from the
west. Distant low pressure moving northeast in Canada, will
trail a weakening front that will try to move our way. There is
a fair bit of uncertainty for placement of the upper low on one
side, the trough approaching from the west, and how long it
takes for both to beat down the upper ridge. This also comes
into play for how much the front is able to get into our area,
while weakening. The end story of all of this will be for
temperatures to trend back closer to average late in the week,
with some chances for showers and perhaps thunder depending on
how the above features evolve. Model guidance this afternoon 6/5
generally shows the frontal timing to be slightly faster with
quite a bit of spread still with the ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions expected to remain VFR for most terminals through
this evening. However, some vsbys below alternate minimums have
started to creep into KAVP already. This leads one to believe
that there may be more vsby/ceiling restrictions through
tonight...especially given the favorable moist sw flow.
Therefore, have kept the fuel alt req ceilings, and introduced a
period of IFR vsbys tonight for KAVP. Have kept the MVFR
ceilings at KRME, KELM, and KBGM late tonight/early Sat morning.
Also, put in a mention of non-restrictive -SHRA at KRME and
KSYR late tonight with the passage of a weak cold front. Conditions
return to VFR after 12-14Z Saturday.

W/NW winds most of tonight, then becoming slightly higher around
10 kt after 12Z Saturday and then picking up some higher gusts
in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG/HLC
NEAR TERM...BJG/HLC
SHORT TERM...MDP/MWG
LONG TERM...MDP/MWG
AVIATION...BJT/HLC
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