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FXUS61 KBGM 242324
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
724 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive high pressure, will keep rain free and warm weather in
place, through early Saturday. A slow moving frontal boundary,
will bring an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms,
from Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
7 pm update...
Minor changes with temperatures staying on the high side right
now. Close to today's high still. Again actual highs above
guidance and actual lows close to or below guidance. Adjusted
temperatures next 24 hours accordingly. High pressure means 0
pops and very few clouds which we already have.

3 pm update... Quiet weather continues, as a large surface high
and short-wave ridging aloft, maintain control.

Clear-partly cloudy skies will persist through the period, with
our recent warming trend remaining in tact on Friday, as a warm
advective W-SW flow develops in the lower levels of the
atmosphere.

After early morning lows in the 50s, highs will reach the 80-85
range for most locales Friday afternoon. Later Friday night,
lows will only drop into the upper 50s-lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 pm update... Over the weekend, as the above mentioned
short-wave ridge pushes off the New England coast, minor short-
wave impulses will begin to rotate through. At the same time, as
an eastern Canadian surface high moves eastward into the
Maritime provinces, a back-door type front will drop southward
into CNY/NEPA. Present indications are that this front will
ultimately run out of steam and stall, somewhere near or over
the forecast area. The combination of these features will
gradually increase the chances for convective development, over
time.

Saturday should start out dry. However, as the environment
destabilizes in the afternoon, heights fall aloft, and the
frontal zone approaches from the north, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop. Scattered convection is
expected to persist Saturday night, before perhaps increasing in
coverage on Sunday, as a better short-wave nears from the upper
Midwest, and the surface boundary lurks somewhere in our
vicinity. We continue to advertise likely probabilities for
showers/storms on Sunday.

Although the environment across CNY/NEPA could become fairly
unstable coincident with daytime heating over the weekend (ML
CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg), deep-layered shear is marginal (0-6 km
values of 20-30 kt), and lower-level flow actually looks fairly
weak (mostly less than 15 kt up to about 3 km AGL). Although
any storms will certainly have to be monitored, a weakly sheared
environment could point to primarily garden variety storms (an
overall reduced threat for severe weather).

Our far western and southern zones (the Finger Lakes region in
CNY and parts of NEPA) will have the best chance to retain
warmer temperatures near and south/west of the boundary, while
our far northern/eastern zones (southern Tug Hill, Mohawk
Valley, and Catskill regions) have the best chance to see
somewhat cooler readings.

Saturday looks like a warmer, more humid day overall, with
highs in the 80s. Sunday may be a bit cooler (more clouds and
convection), with highs ranging from the mid 70s-lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM Update...

Sunday night through Monday night:
A cold front moves through this period. Aloft on the back side
of an upper level trough. Showers and some thunderstorms will
still be possible with warm moist air in place ahead of the
surface front. Lows around 60 and highs Monday 70s most to
around 80 Finger Lakes.

Tuesday through Wednesday:
High pressure builds southeast through the region Tuesday night
resulting in a dry period. Some uncertainty still on how fast
tropical moisture moves north out of the Gulf ahead of a
tropical system. Still warm with above normal temperatures.
Highs mostly 75 to 80 with lows in the 50s.

Wednesday night through Thursday and beyond:
Showers and thunderstorms probably get into the region this
period. Dewpoints and precipitable water will creep up. Highs
about the same still but low rise to the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
720 pm update...
VFR persists through the period. The air mass appears too dry
to support fog formation overnight/early Friday. Scattered to
broken 25k foot high clouds come in Friday.

Winds will decrease to light and variable or for BGM/SYR SW at 5
kts. Friday winds southwest to west at 8 to 10 kts with some
higher afternoon gusts possible.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday morning...VFR.

Saturday afternoon through Tuesday...At least scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected, with occasional restrictions
foreseen.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
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