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FXUS61 KBGM 171953
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
253 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will trend milder, for the next couple of days.
Weak disturbances, will bring the chance for occasional light
rain or wet snow. A brief return of seasonably cold weather, is
then expected for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 pm update... Satellite trends, as well as our latest near-
term guidance, now suggest that lower clouds will expand across
CNY/NEPA later tonight, then remain draped over the region
Monday, with a moist southerly flow in the lower levels of the
atmosphere.

A fast moving short-wave will zip across the mid-Atlantic region this
evening, and could bring some flurries to portions of NEPA.
Since this system is so progressive and moisture starved
overall, we don't expect anything more than that. Later tonight
into early Monday, warm advection forcing will increase over
northern portions of the forecast area, as another short-wave
and associated surface low track from the northern Great Lakes
region into southeastern Canada. Consequently, we expect some
light snow to break out towards daybreak over the northern
Finger Lakes, the Mohawk Valley, and the southern Tug Hill
region. As boundary layer temperatures warm Monday, we
anticipate a rain/snow mix with time, and perhaps predominately
rain showers by day's end, with surface temperatures in the mid
30s-lower 40s by this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
145 PM update...
A weak trof associated with a Canadian low pressure system will
move across NY Monday night. Light snow showers are forecast,
with up to an inch of accumulation over Oneida County, where
temperatures should be colder and terrain will provide lift.

925mb temperatures will be near +3C along the NY/PA border, and
this will allow for surface maximums in the 40s, with a
scattering of rain showers.

The cold front passes early Tuesday evening, changing rain
showers back over to light snow showers. A lake response is
expected over Oneida County.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
150 PM update...

A brisk zonal flow is forecast for much of the long term period.
The polar jet should confine most of the cold air to Canada, so
above-normal temperatures are forecast for NY and PA.

Ongoing lake effect will come to an end late Wednesday. Wind
trajectories puts the band over Northern Oneida County.

High pressure builds in for Thursday, but the zonal flow will
usher another storm system into Michigan early Friday, with a
warm front pushing across NY/PA. Long-term soundings suggest the
possibility for freezing rain, but it is much too early to
commit to precipitation type.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At least occasional MVFR-fuel alternate restrictions are
expected this afternoon and early evening at KBGM, KITH, and
KELM, with VFR at KSYR, KRME, and KAVP.

Later tonight and Monday, ceiling bases will lower area-wide,
such that widespread fuel alternate-IFR is anticipated. The most
likely candidates for IFR will be KBGM with lower ceilings, and
KRME with reduced visibilities in light snow.

Light winds (5 kt or less) through tonight, will become
southerly on Monday at 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Probable restrictions in lower
ceilings, along with rain or snow showers.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible again in lake effect snow
showers, mainly KSYR and KRME.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possibly developing again in mixed
precipitation.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ
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