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FXUS61 KBGM 182006
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
406 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers will end across central New York by early
evening. More scattered rain and snow showers are expected on
Tuesday as another disturbance moves through. Another batch
of rain and snow showers are expected Wednesday night through
Thursday associated with a passing low pressure system. Cooler
air behind the system will produce lingering rain and snow
showers into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered snow showers across central New York will end this
evening as the surface trough moves through and daytime
instability ends. Skies will become mainly clear to partly
cloudy overnight with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s.

Tuesday...Another mid level wave is forecast to cross central
New York during the late morning through afternoon period. This
feature combined with diurnal instability and steep low/mid
level lapse rates will bring more scattered snow/rain showers to
central New York. The most widespread coverage will be across
the northern Susquehanna region and western Catskills. Highs
will range in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday night...A dry period as as upper level heights rise and
surface high pressure moves off the New Jersey coast. Overnight
lows will range in the upper teens to mid 20s, under mainly
clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
After a quiet Wednesday, a trough swinging into the Great Lakes
will spread a mix of light rain and snow showers across the
region Wednesday night.

A secondary storm will form along the southern end of the trough
and move up the Atlantic seaboard on Thursday. A few wet snow
showers are possible early Thursday, then temperatures will warm
well into the 40s with additional rain showers expected during
the afternoon.

The Atlantic cyclone will pull colder air into the region
Thursday night and change the leftover rain showers to snow
showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A trough rotating out of Canada across NY will cause a few snow
and rain showers over our forecast area on Friday and Friday
night.

After a storm moving up the east coast departs Northern New
England early Saturday, milder air associated with a
southeastern dome of high pressure will spread toward NY and PA
beneath a building ridge.

Temperatures will peak in the lower-40s across the Twin Tiers on
Saturday, then rapidly warm into the 50s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A surface trough and low level instability will produce
scattered snow showers across central New York this afternoon.
At KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM, occasional MVFR conditions in snow
showers will occur between 18Z-22Z. At KELM/KAVP, conditions
are expected to remain low VFR. VFR conditions are forecast
overnight as area lies between two weak waves. Tuesday morning
another mid level short wave will cross the region bringing more
scattered snow/rain showers. At KRME/KSYR, after 12Z included
marginal MVFR conditions in flurries. By afternoon scattered
MVFR snow/rain showers will be possible at KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM.

West winds around 5-8 knots becoming light this evening then
southwest around 5-8 knots on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night/Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night through Friday...Restrictions possible in
rain/snow showers.

Friday night/Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM
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