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FXUS61 KBGM 201830
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
230 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
October's tranquil weather will continue into early next week,
with mild temperatures and mostly sunny skies. The pattern will
become more unsettled and slightly cooler next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
218 PM update...
A continuation of tranquil and mild October weather will
continue through Saturday.

A quiet evening will give way to patchy river valley fog in the
early morning hours of Saturday. The fog will be light and
should burn off before 830 AM.

A warming trend is forecast, as 925mb temperatures push to
between 16c and 18c on the back side of an anticyclone under a
building ridge. This should force temperatures into the
middle-70s Saturday afternoon, well above normal for the last
third of October.


950 AM update...
Another tranquil and beautiful October day is forecast. Sunny
skies will push temperatures back into the upper 60s this
afternoon.

Winds will increase to 8 to 12 knots by mid-afternoon with gusts
of 20 knots possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

High amplitude ridge remains into place through Monday bringing
dry and unseasonably warm conditions. Some increase in high
clouds is likely on Monday as the negatively tilted trof over
the Mississippi valley begins to push moisture up along the west
side of the ridge. This may result in a temperature drop of a
few degrees for the afternoon highs, especially over the more
wester zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Models are now coming into better agreement with the timing and
movement of the cold front on Tuesday. Basically the front
slows as the negatively tilted upper trough captures the
surface low and pulls it back into the upper lakes. Eventually
the upper trof rotates eastward allowing the cold front to push
through late Tuesday bringing showers and a brief burst of
heavier rain. Behind the front, our area will be under the
influence of the upper trough that drifts slowly east through
the end of the period. This will keep showers and seasonably
cool air over the area through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clear skies and VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24
hours. Winds will gust at 10 to 16 knots this afternoon before
calming down this evening.

The probability for fog at KELM Saturday morning appears low at
this time.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon and Sunday...Mostly VFR. Possible early
morning restrictions in fog at KELM on Sunday.

Monday...Mostly VFR but possible restrictions at times due to
showers.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely with occasional rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJP
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