FXUS61 KBGM 061808
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
208 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY.
HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CATSKILLS
OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER
WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
AND IS STILL HEADING OFF TO THE NORTH. STILL WAITING TO SEE IF
HANNA WILL CONTINUE HEADING NORTH...BUT IT LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE
SLOWLY BEGINNING TO HEAD NORTHEAST. EITHER WAY...A BIG AREA OF
RAIN IS MVG INTO S-CNTRL AND SEPA AND IS HEADING UP INTO NEPA.
THIS AREA OF RAIN SHUD MV IN WITHIN THE NEXT HR. MODELS STILL HVG
TROUBLE WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN WITH THE 06Z NAM INDICATING VRY
LITTLE QPF THIS FAR NORTH ALREADY. THE GFS IS ALSO NOT CATCHING
ONTO THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD.
LATEST RUC HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN WITH IT LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF CWA AT 14Z. IN TURN IT IS ALSO FURTHER WEST THAN THE
OTHER MODELS INDICATE AND GIVES MORE RAIN TO SERN ZONES. IN
RECOGNITION OF THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE PCPN IS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CENTER AS EXPECTED AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO MV N-NE
WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH AS IS. THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT
OF 1 INCH TO 5 INCHES AND THIS CUD FALL ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CWA
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE A CLOSE ONE FOR OUR SERN ZONES. FEELING IS
THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE SRN PART OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE HVY RAIN BFR THE DAY IS OUT WITH FLOODING PROBLEMS. STAY TUNED...
AS FOR THE WINDS...HIGHEST GUSTS HV BEEN CONFINED ALONG THE
COAST...IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTER. KLWX VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE ONLY 25-30KTS OFF THE SFC. THUS...WILL LEAVE THINGS AS IS
WITH GUSTY WINDS MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR THE POCONOS BUT NO WIND
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. RUC H8 WINDS ONLY FCST TO BE ARND
20-25KTS AT 2KFT. IT WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THERE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS FROM
WINDS THIS AFTN.
PREV DISCUSSION...
FIRST WEST TO EAST AREA OF RAIN IS LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA ATTM.
THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF HANNA AND THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AND EVE. THIS FIRST BATCH SHOULD BE HANDLED EASILY EVEN
WITH AN AREA OF 1 INCH RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES IN THE CATSKILLS.
IT HAS BEEN DRY FOR THE PAST WEEK WITH 1 HOUR FFG OVER 2 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SAME AREA. MODELS HAVE PUSHED THE
HEAVY RAIN AXIS BACK TO THE EAST. ONLY PIKE AND SULLIVAN ARE
FORECASTED TO GET BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES. DO NOT WANT
TO CHANGE AGAIN SINCE ANOTHER SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST IS POSSIBLE.
VERY SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN LESS THAN 1 INCH AND OVER 3 INCHES.
WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PWATS OVER 2 INCHES WITH WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS TO 14K FT RAINFALL RATES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH AN HOUR.
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UL JET WILL ALSO HELP WITH DEEP LIFT. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT OF PLACEMENT OF SW TO NE HEAVY RAIN AXIS ALONG SE CWA
BORDER. WITH THE DRY GROUND DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN SO FAR THIS
MONTH ANY FLOODING WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ON. RIVERS ARE AT
SEASONALLY LOW VALUES. IT WILL TAKE OVER 3 INCHES FOR EVEN THE
HEADWATERS TO FLOOD. BIGGEST FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING
OF CREEKS...SMALLER STREAMS...AND URBAN AREAS. THE MAIN STEM OF
THE DELAWARE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. THE NYC RESERVOIRS WILL HOLD ALL THE RAIN.
WITH HEAVY RAIN AT THE TIME OF THE BEST LL JET DO NOT SEE MUCH
WIDESPREAD DOWNWARD TRANSLATION. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE POCONOS
CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF HANNA COULD SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30S
FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 00Z. STORM TRACK WILL BE EAST OF CWA WITH
FORWARD ACCELERATION. HIGHER WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE GETTING ONTO
THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM THIS FAR INLAND.
PCPN SHUD CLR OUT LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING...LVG CLRNG
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BUT LITTLE FORCING GETS INTO THE CWA UNTIL TUESDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
MOSTLY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. A SFC WAVE COULD FORM AS A
STRONG VORT WAVES MOVES EAST WITH A UL TROF.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LINGERING PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING IN THE EAST AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE A NICE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THEN
INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES EAST.
LOOKS LIKE WE THEN DRY OUT AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
TEMPS MAY BE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE LOOK TO BE NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAIN FROM HANNA MAINLY FROM AN AVP TO BGM LINE
SOUTHEAST...PRODUCING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAIN. TO
THE WEST OF THERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS. THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE PULLING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOME
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH LIGHT FOG THRU THE EVENING
AFTER PRECIP ENDS BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTN BECOMING N/NW
TWD LATE AFTN/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY TO MONDAY...VFR. SOME EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
MOST LIKELY AT ELM. OTHER LOCATIONS COULD FALL TO MVFR VSBYS DUE
TO WET GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...NEXT FRONT APPCHS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER ALONG BNDRY
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...VFR. RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN MORNING FOG
ESPECIALLY AT ELMIRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THANKS TO A TREMENDOUSLY DEDICATED TEAM OF ELECTRONICS EXPERTS
WORKING LONG HOURS...THE KBGM WSR- 88D BEGAN SPINNING AGAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS DONE IN RECORD TIME OF JUST UNDER FOUR
DAYS WITH A TROPICAL STORM LOOMING.
ALL USERS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION WHEN USING PCPN PRODUCTS...AS
IT WILL NOT CAPTURE THE STORM TOTAL PCPN AFTER BEING DOWN FOR
SEVERAL HRS THIS MRNG. PLEASE REFER TO SURROUNDING RADARS
(KENX...KTYX...KBUF...KDIX...KOKX AND KCCX) FOR THE MOST UP TO
DATE IMAGES AND ESTIMATED PCPN AMOUNTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-
048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PVB/TAC
SHORT TERM...PVB/TAC
LONG TERM...JML
AVIATION...JML
EQUIPMENT...
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