FXUS63 KBIS 222339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
639 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Issued at 446 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Added patchy fog to the forecast for tonight and into early Sunday
morning. The latest CAM model guidance suggests the development of
fog across much of western North Dakota and across parts of
Bottineau and Rolette counties. Forecast NAM BUFR soundings also
support the development of fog in these areas as temperatures cool
down to the dew point temperature and the stratus deck moving in
from the north lowers. No other notable changes were needed with
this forecast update.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Current surface analysis places low over central Montana with
frontal boundary draped eastward more or less along the Highway 2
corridor in North Dakota. High remains over central
Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Upper level analysis places westerly flow
over our area. A few light showers passed over far northern
portions of the area earlier today but now remain to the north of
the border.

For tonight...shower chances will remain over far northern
portions of the area where the baroclinic zone has developed,
though cloud cover will push its way south through much of the
area. Temperatures will remain cooler north/warmer south. Over the
far north, temperatures will dip into the mid 30s, but at this
point look to stay just above freezing given the cloud cover and a
few little showers moving through. May have to give this a second
look a little later today/early evening to re-evaluate temps won't
go lower to ensure no freeze headlines would be needed.

On Sunday...precipitation through the day looks to hold over far
northern areas in line with aforementioned baroclinic zone, but
cloud cover is expected to linger over most locations.
Temperatures will remain cool north/warmer south. Towards evening
a Pacific trough will push over the Rockies on its way towards the
northern plains, spreading precipitation chances through a broad
swath of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Cyclonic flow sets up over the area to start the work week which
will keep temperatures on the cool side and bring precipitation
chances to the area from time to time. A brief reprieve in
precipitation is possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a
weak ridge passes over. Later on Wednesday into Thursday models
continue to show a clipper system sliding down into the Canadian
Prairies. Models have been bouncing around a bit, though, on how
far east to push this system which affects precipitation chances.
Either way, this will bring a re-enforcing shot of cool air along
with an increase in winds.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Expect MVFR cigs at KMOT lowering to IFR around 04z and likely
continuing through 00z Sunday evening. KDIK, KISN, KBIS, and KJMS
will experience an increase is cloud cover as low stratus moves in
from the north. This will likely lead to MVFR cigs at KDIK by 07z,
which may lower to LIFR cigs and visibilities between 09z and 13z
as patchy fog develops near KDIK. Low stratus will likely lead to
MVFR cigs at KISN by 03z, KBIS by 06z, and KJMS by 07z.




Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page