FXUS63 KBIS 190833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
333 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

08Z water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low spinning over the
western Dakotas. This low was responsible for scattered sprinkles
and flurries earlier in the night, which have now exited North
Dakota to the south. Starting to see fog develop over northeast into
central North Dakota, as has been strongly indicated by high-
resolution model guidance. These models insist that the fog will
spread into the James River Valley and south central North Dakota by
sunrise. However, the fog appears to be confined to the center of a
weak, surface meso-low that has developed near Langdon. Still would
not be surprised to see fog spread south and westward, but it may
only be patchy in nature.

Any fog that develops should lift by noon. Expect mostly cloudy
skies the rest of the day, with highs once again in the mid to upper
30s. An 850 mb front is forecast to pass through during the late
afternoon and early evening, but a dry low-level airmass will likely
prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground.

Some models show widespread fog development again tonight, but think
that surface and low-level winds look too strong for this to occur.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

A strong upper-level ridge and surface high pressure are forecast to
build over the Northern Plains for mid to late week, giving us a
prolonged period of warm and dry weather. The western half of North
Dakota should see highs well into the 40s Wednesday through Friday,
with 50s possible in the far west. This pattern will be very
favorable for widespread snow melt across western North Dakota. We
expect to begin to see some rises on rivers and streams as water
from the melt begins to flow into the system.

An upper-level low is forecast to meander from the Great Basin into
the Great Plains this weekend. There appears to be run-to-run
consistency within each model, but there is a lack of consensus on
the track and strength of this low. The GFS continues to be farther
north and a little more energetic with this system, giving western
and central North Dakota a rainy weekend, with light snow during the
overnight hours. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF keeps all but far southern
North Dakota dry through the weekend. Models are then hinting at
another ridge developing next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

All sites start this forecast period with VFR conditions. Still
thinking southern ND will see MVFR to IFR ceilings and/or
visibilities develop overnight, but now expecting KISN and KMOT to
stay at VFR. The fog/low stratus should dissipate by Tuesday
afternoon, with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the
forecast period. Winds will become westerly around 10-15 kts by
Tuesday afternoon, with a few +20 kt gusts possible.




LONG TERM...Hollan
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