FXUS63 KBIS 170939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
339 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Arctic high pressure currently centered in southeast Saskatchewan
at 3 am CST is forecast by models to move to eastern South Dakota
by this afternoon. This will keep temperatures quite cold today.
Highs will be in the lower teens to lower 20s. Weak return flow
around the high this morning will not have much impact on the
clouds across western North Dakota as low level winds are very
light. The NBM guidance seems to keep clouds in longer today and
followed this trend.

The clouds will eventually diminish this afternoon and overnight
as low level warm advection becomes more substantial. Tonight will
be clear. used the NBM guidance for temperatures as this was
cooler teh SuperBlend. Concern for fresh snow and clear skies
played a role here also tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

The extended period does become predominately progressive by the
middle of next week, which should return temperatures to a more
normal pattern in time for Thanksgiving Day. There will be a
chance for snow or some light freezing rain Monday with the
initial thrust of warmer air as the cold trough currently
dominating the northern plains weather moves east. However,
precipitation should be spotty with only light amounts Monday.
After that expect dry weather Tuesday Through Friday with more
normal temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Arctic high pressure over southeast Saskatchewan will move to
the eastern Dakotas by Saturday afternoon. VFR or becoming VFR
all TAF sites.




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