FXUS64 KBMX 190848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
348 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

A cold front is to our south this morning and high pressure will
build in across the north. Winds will generally be out of the east
as the center of the high pressure will be to our north. This will
place temperatures at or slightly above yesterday's readings, but
still in the 60s. Another chilly night in place tonight. Most areas
will remain above freezing. Will need to monitor the frost
potential, but right now appears that it will be too dry. A few
pockets across the north may see a brief period right at sunrise
where the dewpoint depression is close enough for frost at the
surface, but that will likely be patchy at best. Rooftops and
cooler, protected areas my see some frost but the potential for a
widespread frost remains low at this time.


Wednesday through Tuesday.

The surface high pressure has shifted off to our east by Wednesday,
leading to generally light easterly flow for Central AL. Expect a
mostly sunny and dry day with high temps in the upper 60s for most
locations. A trough dips through the Upper Midwest and slides
southeastward through the Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will increase cloud cover across the area, so low
temperatures won't drop as cold as they have been the past few
mornings. Thursday morning temperatures will be in the low to mid
40s across Central AL. Guidance continues to bring some chance of
light rain across our north as the trough axis swings through. With
the antecedent dry easterly flow, I'm not sure how much moisture
will be available. I've continued with mention for a slight chance
for light rain generally north of I-20 after midnight. By Thursday
morning, the trough axis is well east of our area, so rain chance
should be minimal for most of the daylight hours.

Ridging builds in Thursday, so we should see decreasing clouds
throughout the day, though clouds could linger long enough to keep
high temps moderated a bit. I've gone with highs in the low 60s
across the north and upper 60s in the south. Upper level ridging
continues through the end of the week, providing slightly warmer
than average temperatures. Highs over the weekend will reach into
the low to mid 70s.

Our next weather system slides into the Central Plains on Sunday as
an upper level trough with a weak surface low. The system should
slide through on Monday, but some guidance suggests increasing rain
chances as early as Sunday afternoon, though I think this may be a
bit too fast. I've trended PoPs up Sunday evening through Tuesday.
Considerable differences in model timing with this system exists, so
I'm hesitant to go much above 50% for any single time period.
Guidance does suggest some instability works in ahead of this
system, and the center of the low has the potential to track through
Northern MS, which would provide ample shear to support a severe
weather threat. The trough is positively-tilted through this time,
so this could be a limiting factor in the threat as the mid to upper
level winds would be parallel to the forcing. Overall, too much
uncertainty is present in the evolution of the surface low and
larger-scale trough to introduce any severe weather to the HWO.



06Z TAF Discussion.

At present, we continue to have considerable high cloudiness
across Central Alabama. The moisture is shallow aloft, with VFR
conditions and no precipitation expected through the forecast.
North to northeast winds will stay up for some through the night
but will taper down for a couple (mainly ASN/EET). Winds will
pick back up some by mid morning and start turning to the
northeast for all. High clouds should finally clear out during the
afternoon with light to near calm winds overnight with surface




Dry conditions continue for today. Min RHs this afternoon will
drop near or below 20%. Winds could gust to 10kts at times this
afternoon as well. However, saturated soil conditions and rather
light 20 foot winds will keep fire weather concerns at a minimal.


Gadsden 60 33 64 43 60 / 0 0 0 20 10
Anniston 61 34 65 42 62 / 0 0 0 20 10
Birmingham 63 37 66 44 62 / 0 0 0 20 10
Tuscaloosa 64 36 68 44 64 / 0 0 0 20 0
Calera 62 36 66 44 63 / 0 0 0 20 10
Auburn 64 37 64 43 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
Montgomery 66 37 69 44 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Troy 66 38 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 10


Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Cleburne...Etowah...
Fayette...Lamar...Marion...St. Clair...Walker...Winston.


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