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FXUS64 KBMX 170928
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
328 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight.

High pressure will remain centered over the area and will
dominate the weather through tonight. Winds will be light and
skies will be generally clear. The only clouds will be associated
with a passing disturbance to the north overnight. There will be
an increase in clouds in the northeast early and then slide over
to the northeast by sunrise. Highs today will be a little warmer
with all areas reaching the 60s. Lows will drop off into the 30s.

16


.LONG TERM...

Sunday through Saturday.

Not a lot of adjustments were made to the long-term period with
regards to weather across central Alabama. A warm and pleasant
weekend is in store as a stable continental airmass continues to
reside over the southeastern CONUS through Sunday. With high
pressure and sunny skies, expecting highs in the low to upper 60s
across the area Sunday afternoon. An upper-level trough will be
moving across the Midwest and will generally move southeastward
towards the Ohio Valley by Monday. Downstream, some light rain
showers could develop along an associated frontal boundary where
increasing moisture content (PWs ~1.0") will advect from the
southwest. PoPs are still generally in the 10-15% range for the area
as forcing still appears to be rather weak/diffuse with this feature
and forecast soundings indicate plenty of dry air aloft. Once this
front clears the area to the southeast, another surface anticyclone
encompasses the southeast CONUS and provides more stable weather
with afternoon temperatures in the 50s/60s. Some increasing
confidence in rain chances for next weekend as the polar and sub-
tropical jet may interact with a mid/upper-level disturbance, though
lack forecast specificity at this time.

40/Sizemore


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions and light westerly winds will prevail through the
period. The main terminal forecast change was to add some mention
of fog. Fog will be most developed near water bodies overnight.
Many of these locations are starting to show up on satellite
imagery already. Therefore, went with tempo MVFR fog from 10-13z.
Added mention of BCFG at TCL.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier conditions persist this weekend, and much of next week.
However, relative humidity values each afternoon will remain above
critical thresholds. Lake and river fog is expected through early
this morning until ample sunshine mixes the boundary layer. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 63 37 64 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
Anniston 64 38 65 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Birmingham 64 40 65 45 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
Tuscaloosa 66 39 67 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Calera 64 38 65 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
Auburn 64 40 65 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Montgomery 65 39 67 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
Troy 66 40 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$
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