FXUS64 KBMX 141641
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

FORECAST LARGELY PROGRESSING ON TRACK AS FORECAST...WITH ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE AND POP TWEAKS. BIG DIFFERENCE AFFECTING BOTH FIELDS IS
SLIGHT WARMING AT H8 THIS MORNING...AS COLD AIR POCKET OF -2C AIR
SLIPS EAST AND SLIGHTLY WARMER POCKET ARRIVES. BELIEVE THE NET
AFFECT OF THIS WILL BE TO DECREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE JUST A
BIT...AND ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN...ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
A BIT MORE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER. SO...TRIMMED POPS JUST A BIT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE...AND
RAISED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. REGARDLESS OF
THESE ADJUSTMENTS...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND HOWEVER...AND
ACTUALLY LOWER EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER POCKET OF COOLER AIR
ROTATES AROUND THEY LARGE EASTERN LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

JD/02

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MANY CHANGES IN STORE FROM EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGES. TODAY
WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY AS SEVERAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN PARKED JUST NORTH
OF OUR VICINITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE SURFACE HEATS
UP A BIT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL...SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS
GENERATED. THE SHOWERS...AGAIN MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WILL REMAIN LOW
TOPPED AND SHALLOW SO THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL.

AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEFT IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...LIKELY KEEPING IT RATHER CLOUDY AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLY AT TIMES. OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL
COME TWO PART. TWO SEPARATE UPPER LOWS WILL MOVER ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FIRST FOLLOWED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. BOTH WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NEARLY A 48 HOURS PERIOD. THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR EITHER SYSTEM...SO
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

BEYOND THURSDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS A BIT
SUSPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH TIME.
RIGHT NOW ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER...LEFT THE OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR THUNDER DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT RIGHT
NOW IT IS RATHER MARGINAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF A DECENT
RETURN FLOW CAN GET ESTABLISHED EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDER.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE AVIATION INTERESTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SLIGHT WARMING IN LOWER LEVELS LOOKS TO HAVE DECREASED THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMOVE VCSH
FROM EET AND TCL. BHM/EET/ANB CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NAM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE
EXCURSION TO IFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BARES WATCHING. EITHER
WAY...MODEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT BKN TO OVC
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TODAY SHOULD
DIMINISH A BIT AFTER SUNSET.

JD/02

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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