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FXUS64 KBMX 290735
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
235 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0231 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020/
Through Saturday.

Morning clouds and patchy fog will be followed by increasing chances
again for showers and storms. The first wave will try to work into
the northwest this morning. Activity with this has been weakening
over the past hour as far as intensity, however coverage has been
increasing. With lighter precipitation will continue with just
scattered convection through the morning. No organized strong or
severe storms are expected as the upper trough will be pulling away
with less dynamics to work with through the day. As we work into the
afternoon, several bands of showers will develop. Tried to focus on
the consensus of models as to where those bands will set up, but of
course will need to modify as we get into the day.

By late afternoon/early evening will see the southerly flow try to
get the seabreeze or outflow boundary from coastal storms into the
southern counties. Went with scattered to numerous showers and
storms from 4 pm through 10 pm. May be a touch on the high side with
PoPs but wanted to pinpoint the better chances along with timing.
Highs will the in the mid 80s with winds becoming out of the west 5-
10 mph. Lows will drop into the 60s.

The stubborn upper level low will finally get kicked out of the area
by Saturday and the trailing precipitation should will come to an
end before sunset. Highs will be in the 80s once again.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0231 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020/
Saturday night through Friday.

Subtropical ridging will the main focus of the extended forecast
period, between a trough moving off the East Coast and another
trough along the West Coast. An isolated shower/storm may linger
just after 0z in the far southeast Saturday evening. A surface
high will build in from the north Saturday night, with northerly
winds and weak cool air advection allowing the northern two thirds
of the area to fall into the upper 50s, with mid 50s in typically
cooler locations. Northerly winds continue on Sunday, allowing
for a pleasant last day of May with comfortable dew points and
highs in the 80s. Another pleasant night is expected Sunday night
with lows in the mid to upper 50s for the northern two thirds of
the area. Low-level flow becomes southeasterly for Monday and
Tuesday as high pressure pushes eastward across the Carolinas.
This will bring a modest uptick in dew points/low-level moisture
from the Atlantic which could kick off an isolated shower/storm
both afternoons, but will cap PoPs at 10 percent for now. As the
subtropical ridge moves eastward, and the easterly low-level flow
weakens, expect the warmest temperatures of the late spring/early
summer so far for the rest of the week, certainly making it feel
like June. Widespread low 90s are expected with some mid 90s
possible, but at this time forecast heat indices remain below
100F. Since the ridge is not overly strong, modest PWATs will be
present, and due to the warm temperatures causing MLCAPE values to
be around 1000-1500 J/kg, expect some isolated showers and
thunderstorms to be possible each afternoon. Added in some slight
chance PoPs Thursday and Friday to account for this.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A broad upper trof axis near the MS River will produce sct shwrs
and tstms across central Alabama, mainly after 15z. Despite
proximity of upper trof, the low levels will remain relatively
dry, and this will limit areal coverage of convection as the trof
pushes slowly eastward. Expect sct shwrs to develop across west
Alabama by 10z, with tstm activity increasing in the late morning
and afternoon hours on Friday. The drier low level air mass will
also hinder cloud formation, with mostly sct cumulus developing
after 15z and lcl cigs arnd 3-5k feet agl.

Vsbys at KTCL have been bouncing arnd this evening, so will just
keep prevailing vsby at 2 miles until sunrise.

58/rose


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move through the area today through Saturday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms and minimum RH values above
50 percent are expected areawide today, and across the southeast
half of the area on Saturday. Meanwhile drier air will work into
the northwest half of the area on Saturday, but minimum RH values
should remain at or above 40 percent. This drier air mass will
remain over the area Sunday through mid week, with rain-free
conditions and afternoon RH values in the 35-45 percent range.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 85 61 84 56 82 / 50 20 10 0 0
Anniston 86 61 85 57 82 / 50 30 10 0 0
Birmingham 86 64 86 59 84 / 50 20 10 0 0
Tuscaloosa 86 64 86 59 84 / 40 20 10 0 0
Calera 86 64 85 58 83 / 40 30 10 0 0
Auburn 84 64 85 60 84 / 40 40 30 10 0
Montgomery 86 66 88 60 87 / 60 50 30 10 0
Troy 86 66 87 62 87 / 60 60 50 10 0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$
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