FXUS65 KBOI 142050
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OUR CWA AND NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE FRONT FLANK OF
APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE. SUNNY AND WARMING BEGINNING MONDAY
AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS COMES OVERHEAD. WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF US AND
SWLY FLOW ALOFT COMES IN. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR
THIS YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS 55 TO 65 IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S
THROUGH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN
OREGON ZONES AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT IDAHO ZONES WILL STILL
BE SUNNY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAIN
DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL KEEP SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREAS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE
REGION. AGAIN MAIN DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL KEEP SMALL POPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND DRY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODELS AGREE WITH A
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST BUT DIFFER IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE
AXIS SETS UP WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BEING DRY VS WET.
WILL TREND TOWARD A MODEL BLEND BUT WILL STAY BELOW CLIMO FOR
FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL TREND POPS TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA/DD
AVIATION.....JA


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