FXUS65 KBOI 250947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
347 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...Cold front has pushed east of
the area with colder air aloft as an upper level trough moves
overhead. Daytime heating today will generate instability as cold
air aloft provides steep lapse rates. These lapse rates will fuel
isolated to scattered showers across southeast Oregon and the
southwest Idaho highlands, Owyhee and west Central Idaho
mountains. Gusty winds and graupel are possible with showers
during the afternoon. High clouds currently over the region could
keep showers from developing over the Boise Mountains and areas
south toward the Magic Valley as they move east. Expect clearing
skies after sunset. Patchy fog is expected in the mountain valleys
on Sunday morning ahead of the next approaching system. Slightly warmer
air moves into the region on Sunday afternoon, as southwest flow
develops and clouds increase with an approaching system.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday...Upper trough tracks
through the interior NW Sunday night and Monday. A cool rain in the
valleys with snow levels of 4500-5500 feet. Weak ridging brings
drier conditions for Monday night into Wednesday. Some timing
differences have developed between model solutions for late late Wed
through Friday though consensus remains that another sharp upper
trough will move through the area late Wed/Thur with more rain and
mountain snow. Snow levels with this system will drop from around 6k
feet late Wed to 4500 feet on Thursday. Will see a drying trend on
Friday as an upper ridge builds in from the Pacific. Temperatures
are near normal through the period with Monday and Thursday the
coolest days of the week.


.AVIATION...Local MVFR ceilings and isolated IFR in southwest
Idaho mtns this morning. VFR across rest of southeast Oregon and
southwest Idaho. Scattered showers will initiate over southeast
Oregon this afternoon with stronger cells producing graupel and
gusty winds to 25 kts. Westerly surface winds to 15 kts with winds
to 25 kts at 10k feet.

Sunday...Ceilings increase and lower on Sunday with low-VFR
conditions and precipitation developing from west to east in the
afternoon. Southerly to easterly surface winds 10-20kts with higher
gusts. Southwest winds 20-30kts at 10k feet.






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