FXUS65 KBOU 192054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
254 PM MDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Our hot and dry day continues under mostly clear skies. Dewpoints
are in the 20s and 30s across the mountains and urban corridor,
with 40s and 50s along the South Platte River Valley out to the
eastern plains. Fire weather conditions continue to be flirting
with warning criteria levels, however not an extended period of
time, and are more critical up north where fuels aren't as dry. Northwesterly
winds moving off the mountains will continue to spread southeast
across the area.

Tonights temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal after
today's near record warm temperatures, and with a surface lee
trough and warming at 700 mb.

On Friday, even through 700 mb temperatures will be warmer, a low
level cooler airmass will push in from the Great Plains.
Temperatures will be 3 to 7 degrees cooler over the plains, and
up to 4 degrees cooler in the mountains. Moisture will be moving
up from the southwest for a return to a chance of afternoon storms
over the mountains mainly south of I70. The plains should remain
capped, however, some forecast soundings showing areas over the
east plains with a weaker cap. Will stick with a dry forecast
with the weather pattern in mind of a cooler airmass sliding under
warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jul 19 2018

An upper level ridge will be the predominant factor leading to
continued very warm temperatures Friday and Saturday. Friday evening
a short wave trough will dip into northeast Colorado. The GFS and
European solutions are indicating potential for evening convection
over the Palmer Divide region. Saturday precipitation will become
more likely over the higher terrain, spreading onto the plains in
the afternoon. For the past couple of days the GFS has continued to
forecast high PWs Friday night through the middle of next week.

Sunday is expected to bring a cool down as the ridge flattens and
with more moisture moving into the region and allowing for cloud
cover. This should keep temperatures about 10 degrees F lower than
the previous day.

Monday through Wednesday cooler, stormy conditions are expected to
continue. High PWs with low instability will reduce the chances for
severe weather but could lead to a heavy rainfall threat.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jul 19 2018

VFR conditions will continue today through Friday. North-
northwesterly winds are taking their time spreading southeast
across the area this afternoon, but still expecting them in the
next couple hours. These winds should be reaching up to around 10
knots, though some high resolution models pointing to speeds of
12 to 14 knots. During the early evening winds should become more
east and then southeast by late evening, before a push from the
northwest is expected as a surface low moves to the southeast.
These could combine with the usual drainage pattern to be more of
a west-southwest direction. Winds should then return to north then
northeast as a cool front pushes in from the east Friday by noon.




SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Sullivan
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