FXUS65 KBOU 232039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
239 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Forecast is looking good, with scattered thunderstorms moving off
the mountains this afternoon over only slightly unstable air.
Still richer moisture on the plains for some increase in activity
near the eastern border. With lots of weak convection upstream,
cloud cover should be slow to dissipate overnight, but there
should be a bit of a break. On Thursday moisture increases a bit
aloft, but there will still be dry low level air over the western
part of the plains. There will be a bit more lift which should
generate more solid cloud cover earlier in the day and create more
numerous showers/storms in a weakly unstable environment. Once
again there is potential for some stronger storms in better
moisture near the eastern border. Slightly cooler temperatures on
Thursday due to both a little cold advection and more cloud cover.
Current forecast has all of this well depicted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

A few thunderstorms may linger over the far eastern plains
Thursday night, but should end quickly as downward QG motion moves
into the area. Clearing skies over the forecast area and some
potential outflow from the convection heading into Kansas may
promote some patchy fog over the plains early Friday morning, but
confidence on location and coverage is low, so will not add any to
the forecast at this time.

Flow will become more westerly and drier under the subsident
motion Friday for warmer temperatures and a mostly dry forecast. A
few weak thunderstorms may be found over the high terrain.

The upper ridge will build north into the Great Basin this
weekend into next week, turning the west-northwesterly flow aloft
to almost slightly east of north by Wednesday. This will bring
near to slightly above normal temperatures to the area, though a
weak northerly surge will cool temps a degree or two on Sunday.
Thunderstorms will again favor the high terrain, however there
will be a slight chance to see some convective activity over the
plains as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR through Thursday. Scattered high based thunderstorms will move
across the Denver area through 01z. Variable winds gusting to 30
knots are likely. On Thursday scattered thunderstorms are expected
after 20z. The main threat will be variable winds gusting to 30




SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Kriederman
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