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FXUS65 KBOU 240018
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
618 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Canceled the western part of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch as
there has been a little cooling/drying in what was previously a
marginal environment. Still an isolated weak shower or two
possible for the next couple of hours. There is a convergence line
running from north of Limon to west of Julesburg. Pretty good
convergence but only marginal instability out there, and drier air
advecting northward on the warm side. Still a low threat of severe
storms along/east of this boundary for another hour or two. With
the drying, the threat probably does not extend until 9 PM so we
may be able to drop the watch for the northeast corner early as
well.

Elsewhere the drying is leading to faster clearing than earlier
forecast, so the clouds have been reduced as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

A few strong thunderstorm cells developed over the Denver area
earlier and are now tracking over Weld County with no reports of
hail being received. Additional weak convection is evident on
satellite imagery over the mountains and Palmer Divide. There does
not seem to be sufficient CAPE left over to fuel strong storms, so
scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms should be the
rule through early evening. Will leave the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch in effect for another couple hours. Showers and cloudiness
should diminish as the sun goes down.

For tomorrow, upper level ridging over the state will cause the
atmosphere to be more stable through the afternoon. Drier air out
of the desert southwest will also be moving in. Mountain areas
should only see isolated thunderstorm activity due to the elevated
heating source of the high terrain. Temperatures across the plains
should have no problem reaching the mid 80s under mostly sunny
skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Thursday through Saturday an upper level ridge will build over the
state. Associated southwest flow will lead to warmer temperatures
with only isolated late day storms expected. Saturday it will be
warm and breezy across the Palmer Divide and South Park Regions.
Fire danger could become elevated, but highlights are not expected
at this time due to the green up of fuels.

Sunday into next week there will be additional moisture and
thunderstorm chances as a closed upper level low and its associated
trough move east into the area. Sunday night into Monday,
southeasterly winds are expected to strengthen which will allow for
moisture to be pulled back in to northeast Colorado. Tuesday models
show the best areal coverage with isolated to scatter storms over
the mountains and plains with the passage of the mid level trough
axis. Wednesday there will be west to southwest flow and enough mid
level moisture to allow for isolated storm coverage. The models are
indicating QG subsidence as the trough moves east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 618 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

VFR through Thursday. Complex wind pattern around Denver with
speeds around 10-15 knots at this time will revert back to normal
S/W drainage winds by 06z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Sullivan/Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad
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