FXUS65 KBOU 050322
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
822 PM MST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
HAVE CLEARED THEM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ON THE PLAINS...THERE
WAS STILL A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER BACKLASHING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL DRYING. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST SPOTS PER GOING
FORECAST. THIS WOULD ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERING CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT TIMES NEAR MONUMENT
HILL. WILL INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS BUT
NOT THE GREATER DENVER METRO AREA WITH WEAK DRAINAGE WINDS IN
PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...ANY THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD STAY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS IN PLACE AND LITTLE THREAT OF A DENVER
CYCLONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM MST SAT FEB 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWFA WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT THE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE BUT SHOULD NOT CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY. A WEAK EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXITING TROUGH GETS PINCHED OFF AND FORMS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL UTAH BY 12Z SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT THE AIRMASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS
EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A COLD POOL
ALOFT WITH CAPES OF 100-200 J/KG AT THAT TIME. SOME WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WELL. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC/CHC POPS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. VARIABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE REST OF THE CWFA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS.

LONG TERM...WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EAST EARLY NEXT WEAK
AND OPEN TO A TROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY. FOR POPS...WILL HAVE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM THE EXITING TROUGH MAY PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WILL HAVE LOW POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE COOLEST DAY
BEING TUESDAY.

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. MAY SEE A WEAK
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY...ONLY SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THIS...BUT KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SFC PATTERN WITH SLY DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
WINDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT REMAIN WEAK ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SLY
WIND COMPONENT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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