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FXUS61 KBOX 260610
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
210 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An warm front brings soaking rain to the region into this
evening, with poor drainage street flooding issues possible.
The steady rain winds down later this evening, but scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through the
night. Summer-like warmth and humidity prevail during Wednesday
with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon
and early night. High pressure brings seasonably cool and less
humid weather for Thursday through Saturday. A cold front moves
through Saturday night/Sunday morning with a chance of showers,
then dry and seasonable weather returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

145 AM Update...

Radar early this morning shows the heaviest swath of precip
continues to exit the region and become less widespread with
time. A Flood Advisory continues for the remaining swath of
rain stretching from Kent County northeast to the coast. It will
continue to slowly slide south and east through the morning.

Previous Discussion...

High rainfall rates moved into our southern counties in the
last few hours. Radar estimates and observations have shown up
to 5-6 inches under the heaviest showers. Flood warnings and
Flash Flood Warnings have been issued following the eastward
movement of this line of heavy rain. The heaviest rain should
move out of CT in the next few hours and off of the MA coast by
06Z. Have adjusted the forecast to bring rain to an end more
quickly behind this line as there is a tight gradient in the
trailing edge of precip.


Previous Discussion...

Highlights...

* Areas of moderate to heavy rain into this evening with poor
drainage street flooding issues possible
* Low risk for a t-storm later tonight near the south coast

Highlights...

As of 4 pm this afternoon, still had a several hours to go with
the widespread overrunning precipitation. With high
precipitable water values (1.5 to 2 inches), periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall will continue into this evening. Hi-res
guidance showed the back edge of the widespread area of rain
coming to an end from SW to NE over the course of the evening,
coinciding with the strongest southerly LLJ winds and warm front
pushing north of our area.

Precipitation then becomes more on and off showery and more
scattered in nature for the overnight, as models show warm front
lifts north. So after overrunning swath moves thru, have gone
with a chance pop for the remainder of the night. Models
are showing some increase in instability tonight, thinking better
chances for thunder would be across the southern portion of our
area, generally south of the MA Pike and into northern CT and RI.

A couple of the hi-res guidance members including the NAM
Nest continue to show potential for some convection around daybreak
Wed over far SE New England. Will still be something to watch, but
this does further warrant the mention of chance pops and possible
thunder. Since precipitable water will still be quite high, locally
heavy rainfall possible.

With low level/surface winds out of the south tonight, expecting
higher dewpoint air to move in, and also expecting a non-diurnal
temp rise as the night wears on. This moisture-abundant environment
is expected to lead to areas of fog. Could see some locales in
southeast MA/RI in the low 70s at daybreak Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Summerlike warmth and humidity prevail during Wednesday as S to SW
flow prevails and cold front gradually approaches from the
west. Impressive warm sector for this time of year overspreads
the region with +18 to +20 C air at 925 mb streaming across the
region. These temp anomalies are about +2 standard deviations
warmer than climo and will support highs Wed of 75-80.

The warmth will allow for surface-based CAPE of 500-1000j/kg, but
overall lapse rates are not strong. Thus a tall skinny CAPE
scenario. However, 0-6 km shear increases to 35-40 kt, possibly a
bit higher towards 00z over MA. Thus low risk for a few strong
storms impacting western/central MA/CT towards evening, with
strong to damaging winds the main concern. Other concern with any
convection during Wed will continue to include locally heavy
rainfall, since PWATs will continue to be approaching or around 2
inches. This line of convection will likely weaken after 00z as blyr
cools and mid level lapse rates remain poor.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Mainly dry and seasonable Thursday through Tuesday

Wednesday night...

A cold front will cross our region, bringing an end to the
threat for showers and thunderstorms, especially after midnight.
Much more comfortable humidity start to arrive from the NW.
Above normal low temperatures.

Thursday and Friday...

Weak high pressure dominates the weather of our region with dry
conditions and near normal temperatures. However, front from
Wednesday night is likely to stall south of our region. Only
potential impact here would be for Mariners with increased wave
action.

Saturday...

Trailing northern stream short wave and another cold front move
through. Weak WAA ahead of this feature will result in
slightly higher temperatures. Still a risk for a few
afternoon/evening showers.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Dry and cooler as a large high pressure takes over. Temperatures
are likely to be a few degrees below normal during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Today...Moderate confidence. IFR/LIFR conditions expected to be
widespread through the morning. Given the amount of moisture
left behind from the rain and increasing dewpoint, areas of
low clouds and fog are likely. Conditions will improve slowly to
MVFR with scattered showers possible region-wide. A few
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening ahead of a
cold front. CIGS and vsbys lower again to IFR late afternoon
evening before VFR returns with the cold frontal passage
overnight

Thursday...VFR conditions prevail with northeast winds.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate Confidence.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA, patchy FG.

Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Tonight...Moderate to high confidence. Strongest winds expected
during this evening as LLJ passes thru the area. Gale Warning
continues thru 11 PM this evening for the northern coastal
waters, with SCA headlines elsewhere thru the overnight. Showers
diminish in coverage around midnight, becoming more scattered
in nature. Locally heavy downpours possible, and some
thunderstorms are possible later tonight. Areas of fog will
reduce vsbys for mariners.

Wednesday...Winds diminish somewhat during the morning, but are
expected to pick up again during the afternoon. Seas will
remain rough on the outer coastal waters. Thus the SCA headlines
continue thru Wed for most of the waters, with the exception of
Narragansett Bay.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...Moderate Confidence.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ230>235-237-250-254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/NMB
NEAR TERM...Belk/BW
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/BW
MARINE...Belk/NMB
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