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FXUS61 KBOX 192301
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
701 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry weather and warmer than normal
temperatures through the weekend. The risk of showers will
increase by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM update...

Mid level trof passage bringing some high clouds tonight,
otherwise a dry fropa overnight. Current forecast on track.

Previous discussion...

A shortwave will race across the Northeast tonight and pull a
weak cold front through Southern New England middle to late
night. As noted, not much moisture about and thus not expecting
much in the way of clouds. What may be noticed is a wind
direction shift where there are winds, with northwest winds
toward morning.

Many protected spots that will have light wind. The resulting
radiational cooling will again allow patches of fog to form.
Dew points will lower a few more degrees, general range upper
30s and 40s...which is about normal. Expect min temps in the 40s
and low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control with dry weather and mainly clear
skies. Main difference from today will be that winds will be
from the northwest and bringing slightly lower dew points.
Mixing during the day will reach 925 mb or a little higher,
similar to today, with temps at that level supporting max sfc
temps of roughly 65-70F.

At night, light wind with dew points 35-45 will allow
radiational cooling to bring min sfc temps in the upper 30s and
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights...

* Warm and dry this weekend lasting into Monday
* Unsettled weather pattern with showers at times Tue into Thu

Overview...

Strong subtropical ridge along the east coast will maintain warm and
dry conditions into early next week. Then models signal a pattern
change with significant amplification of the large scale flow as
northern stream trough digs south from the Great Lakes to the SE USA
and interacts with southern stream energy with an eventual high
amplitude trough setting up across the eastern seaboard. With
downstream ridging shifting over the Atlantic, there could be a
period of unsettled weather sometime in the Tue to Thu timeframe but
timing and details remain uncertain in this developing complex
pattern.

Saturday through Monday...

High pres in control with building mid level ridge will result
sunshine and unseasonably warm weather. With 925 mb temps 17-18C
should see highs reach well into the 70s this weekend but somewhat
cooler along the south coast with SW flow. Warm and dry conditions
last into Mon.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Unsettled with showers at times as amplifying trough sets up to the
west with slow moving frontal boundary approaching and multiple
shortwaves moving through the flow. Timing and details of rainfall
remain uncertain but it appears there will be one period of rainfall
sometime Tue into Tue night with lead southern stream shortwave
lifting to the NE. Then possibly a break followed by another period
of rain Thu and beyond as frontal boundary stalls with another
system approaching. Very complex pattern so further forecast changes
expected. Temps above normal through Wed, but lower confidence Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...Generally high confidence.

Tonight...

A weak cold front crosses the region tonight, but with very
limited moisture, so just a few high clouds. The main effect
will be a shift of diminishing winds with winds coming from the
northwest overnight.

Radiational cooling will allow patches of fog to develop later
tonight, especially in parts of the CT River Valley and in the
usual fog magnets. Vsbys could drop to 1/2 mile in spots after
midnight.

Friday and Friday night...

VFR conditions continue. Areas of fog will dissipate first thing
Friday. Northwest winds will pick up a little, with late morning
and afternoon gusts near 20 knots. Winds then diminish with
sunset.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Through Monday...High confidence. VFR, but patchy late night fog
possible in the typical locations.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. MVFR possible in developing
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...High confidence.

Tonight...Southwest winds gust 20 to 25 knots late afternoon but
diminish this evening. Seas on the outer waters will hover
around 5 feet, and while the flow is from the southwest these 5
foot seas may work into RI Sound as well. Winds will shift from
the northwest later tonight, at which point the seas will
diminish.

A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the most of the
waters through this evening, and on the outer waters overnight.

Friday...Northwest winds will gust around 20 knots during the
day. Seas will remain 4 feet or less through the day.

Friday night...Winds remain 15 knots or less, and seas remain at
3 feet or less.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...High confidence.

Great boating weather through Mon with SW winds below 20 kt and seas
below SCA thresholds as high pressure prevails. Increasing southerly
winds Tue as low level jet develops. High prob of SCA winds with low
risk for gales. Increasing threat of showers with reduced vsbys
Tue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ahead of a very weak cold front, southwest winds will gust
20-25 mph across much of the region through this evening and
then diminish. With an overall recent lack of precipitation,
there could be an elevated fire weather potential through the
evening. A Special Weather Statement continues to highlight this
risk.

Winds shift from the northwest overnight. On Friday these
northwest winds will gust around 20 mph, with minimum RH values
reaching 30-35 percent across much of the region. Thus there
could again be some risk of elevated fire weather potential. A
new Special Weather Statement will highlight this potential.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231>234-250-
251-254.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ230-236.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-255-
256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
FIRE WEATHER...
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