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FXUS61 KBOX 261105
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
705 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional upper level disturbances move across New England
today and Tuesday, bringing a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms with the greater threat on Tuesday. A warming
trend begins for the latter half of the week with a return to
summer heat and humidity Friday and Saturday. A warm front may
bring some showers Thursday night with more showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

700 AM Update...

Overall trend in the forecast remains on track for today. Valley
fog in the CT valley is apparent in satellite imagery early this
morning. Currently, vsbys are above 1sm as of 7 AM and expect a
quick improvement within the hour. Otherwise expect a dry
morning with the potential for pop-us showers especially north
of the Pike this afternoon.

Prev Discussion...

Mid level shortwave and assocd mid level cooling which brought
the showers and t-storms to SNE last night has lifted to the NE.
Weak subsidence behind this wave will maintain dry conditions
through the morning. Another weak shortwave approaches from the
SW this afternoon and will bring a few showers and isold
t-storms, mainly interior. SBCAPES are marginal, 200-400 J/kg,
and 500 mb temps are actually warming slightly today which
should result in limited coverage of convection. Mainly dry in
RI and SE MA as rather dry air in the mid levels along with
very low KI values near the coast will likely keep any showers
and t-storms to the north and west so we have dry conditions
here.

850 mb temps around 10-11C will result in max temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Comfortable humidity levels with
dewpoints down in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Any lingering convection will diminish in the evening, otherwise
quiet night with light winds and a few clouds given moisture in
the 850-700 mb layer. Lows in the 50s.

Tuesday...

Another robust shortwave will lift NE from the Gt lakes and
move into northern New Eng late in the day. The mid level trof
approaches SNE from the west with decent mid level cooling as
500 mb temps drop to near -20C in the west and -16 to -18C in
the east. This will contribute to steepening mid level lapse
rates and SBCAPES 500-1000 J/kg. Highest CAPES may end up near
the I-95 corridor where higher dewpoints pool in the afternoon
from increasing SW flow. Expect sct showers/t-storms developing
around midday through the afternoon.

Strengthening mid level flow from approaching trof will lead to
0-6km shear up to 50 kt so a few strong to severe storms are
possible depending on the magnitude of instability. If CAPES can
reach 1000 J/kg probability of severe will increase. Hail and
gusty winds would be the primary threats.

Temps will be a few degrees cooler than today given slight 850
mb cooling, with highs 75-80 degrees and continued comfortable
humidity levels. Deep mixing and increasing low level winds will
result in gusty SW winds in the afternoon, with gusts to 20-30
mph possible, especially coastal plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Pleasant Wednesday with low risk of a shower
* Heat and Humidity return Friday into Sunday
* Thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night through Sunday

Pattern Details...

00z guidance is in general agreement synoptically with some
difference in strength and timing for each wave late in the week.
Upper level trough will move through the flow Tuesday night with
southern New England on the backside Wednesday. Quasi-zonal flow
will set-up across the region on Thursday with the flow with
becoming more amplified by the weekend. Resulting in a broad trough
over the Great Lakes and another trough over the mountain West with
weak ridge between the two. Because the flow is becoming more
amplified, sub-tropical ridge is also building closer to the region
late in the weekend. Ridging out West by Sunday will push the Great
Lakes trough towards the Northeast for early next week.

Details...

Tuesday night into Wednesday...

Scattered shower and thunderstorms will linger Tuesday night as
upper level trough continues to push through the area. Trough axis
will be offshore by Wednesday putting southern New England in weak
northwest flow. Depending on how quickly precip moves offshore,
Tuesday night may be quite pleasant with temperatures in the low to
mid 50s with low humidity.

Surface high pressure will slide into the area on Wednesday as
ridging builds a loft. Steep lapse rates with some moisture in the
mid-levels will help develop diurnal CU by the afternoon. Mixing up
to 750 mb will result in temperatures in the upper 70s with breezy
westerly flow near 20-25 MPH. Guidance shows very little QPF on
Wednesday, but cannot rule out a few pop-up showers by the late
afternoon hours. While confidence is higher north of the region,
southern New England will see instability values above 500 J/kg with
K values above 25C. This may be enough for a spot shower.

Winds aloft will begin to turn more to the southwest by Wednesday
night with WAA. Overnight lows will remain around 60.

Thursday...

Dry day to start as high pressure will slide south of the region.
The flow will turn more active with Zonal flow aloft and a few weak
waves passing through. Impressive warming aloft as surface warm
front pushes through the region. This will push southern New England
in the warm sector resulting in increasingly warm and humid
temperatures.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipate by the latest
guidance suggests not until the evening hours as mid-levels will
remain quite dry. A weak shortwave moves through the flow Thursday
evening/night. With zonal flow and both 850mb isotherms and winds
becoming parallel, appears that anything the fires across upstate NY
will ride through the flow moving into the area. In fact, guidance
is indicating a lingering MCS will move through the flow overnight
which could result in a few strong storms, esp north of the Pike.
This region has the best area of instability and 0-6 km shear
values. Still uncertainty on where this will set-up as it could
still move north of the region, or south. Something to watch over
the upcoming week.

Friday into Sunday...

Unsettled weather patter for this time period as southern New
England remains in the warm sector with heat and humidity. With 850
mb temps near 2 STD above normal, appears that the potential for 90
degrees returns on Friday and Saturday. Back door cold front appears
to remain well north of the region per latest GFS and EC. Thus have
gone above guidance for Saturday temps. Heat headlines may be
needed.

Chance for showers and thunderstorms each day, but difficult to place
the exact timing and location of any strong storms. Regardless, the
potential for strong to severe weather appears possible through the
period as frontal boundary lingers north of the region. One caveat
to watch is the subtropical ridge. If this ridge moves closer, it
may keep portions of the area dry.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence.

Today... VFR with sct-bkn cu 5-6k ft developing, mainly north
of the south coast region. Sct showers and isold t-storms
expected to develop in the afternoon in the interior.

Monday night...
VFR. A few lingering showers or an isold t-storm interior
early, otherwise areas of mid level clouds.

Tuesday...
VFR with bkn cigs 5-7k ft. Sct showers and t-storms expected
from midday through the afternoon which may bring briefly lower
conditions.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday...High confidence. Mainly VFR. NW gusts to 20 kts.

Thursday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Afternoon showers
possible in the interior with showers/t-storms possible all SNE Thu
night. Gusty SW winds to 25-30 kt developing, especially coastal
plain.

Friday...Moderate confidence. Patchy early morning fog, with local
MVFR. Then VFR, except local IFR in possible strong thunderstorms,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence.

Winds and seas mostly below SCA thresholds through the period
with SW flow. A few gusts approaching 20 kt nearshore waters
each afternoon but there is a risk of some 25 kt gusts over
Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay Tue afternoon.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday...High confidence. Quiet boating weather with winds and
seas below SCA. Gusts to 20 kt possible nearshore waters.

Thursday...Moderate confidence. Small craft advisories will likely
be needed. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25+ kt likely,
especially over nearshore waters. Building seas may reach 6 to 8 ft
over southern waters Thu night.

Friday...Moderate confidence. SW winds continue, mainly 20-25 kt
with building seas. Scattered thunderstorms, some with reduced
visibilities and strong gusty winds.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dunten
NEAR TERM...KJC/Dunten
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...KJC/Dunten
MARINE...KJC/Dunten
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