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FXUS64 KBRO 190918
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
418 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night): The westward progression
of an inverted surface trough will produce isolated to scattered
patches of showers and rain that will transition from the lower
Texas coastal waters to the inland areas today and tonight. On
Wednesday, a deep and moist easterly flow will continue the chance
for scattered precipitation. Temperature-wise, moderating, but
still below normal, temperatures are anticipated due to
significant cloud cover and the persistent opportunity for
rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): A fairly progressive
upper-level ridge will move through the Central U.S. to start off
the long term period. This will generally bring drier and warmer
weather to Deep South Texas. Onshore flow and sufficient low-level
moisture will allow for orographic lifting west of the CWA into
the Sierra Madre with 20 to 30% PoP along the border and out west.
Surface high pressure will build across East Texas and progress
into the Southeast U.S., finally backing winds to the southeast
again. The next deep trough will move into the Four Corners Region
by the end of the week, with a few weak shortwaves rotating
through the Southern Plains, bringing a chance of thunderstorms to
the region. Though thunder probabilities are low, the better
chances will be Friday afternoon into early Saturday, before the
trough axis and better energy lift northeastward. Going into early
next week, strong subsidence filters in with dry, northwesterly
flow in the mid-levels. The GFS and ECMWF both bring a cold front
through late Monday, with little to no precipitation. Temperatures
look to rise above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s.

&&

.MARINE (Now through Wednesday night): Buoy 42020 reported east-
northeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 19 knots with
seas slightly under 6 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 250
CDT/750 UTC. A long fetch of breezy winds over the Gulf of Mexico
will produce rough swells that will approach the Lower Texas Coast
during the forecast period. A Small Craft Advisory for Seas is in
effect for the Gulf of Mexico from 0 to 60 nautical miles
offshore from around sunrise today until around sunrise Wednesday
due to these swells. Marine conditions may improve slightly on
Wednesday, but Small Craft Advisory for Seas or Small Craft
Exercise Caution are likely to be needed.

Thursday through Tuesday: Surface high pressure will move off to
the Southeast U.S., shifting winds back to the southeast in the
Western Gulf of Mexico. Periodic small craft exercise caution
conditions will be possible this weekend with seas ranging from 3
to 5 feet. The next front may move into the region Monday or
Tuesday, increasing winds out of the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 72 60 73 / 30 30 20 20
BROWNSVILLE 60 73 60 75 / 30 30 30 20
HARLINGEN 59 73 59 75 / 30 30 30 20
MCALLEN 59 73 60 75 / 30 30 30 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 58 73 59 73 / 30 30 30 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 62 69 61 70 / 30 30 20 20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 7 AM this morning
to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...66
Long Term...65
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