FXUS64 KBRO 230444 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1044 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...Not too many changes to the previous issuance of
TAFs. Less than ideal aviation conditions continue to be expected
tonight through tomorrow morning due to the approach and passage
of a strong cold front. VFR should reign supreme tomorrow
afternoon and night as high pressure becomes the dominant force
over the aerodromes in the wake of the front.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 841 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/
DISCUSSION...Hazards have been adjusted over the past 5 1/2
hours, and the ones listed below in BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
are the most current with no additional changes planned.
Corresponding products have also been updated as needed/required.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...Less than ideal aviation conditions are expected
tonight and through the morning hours of Wednesday due to strong
winds, lowered cloudiness, and precipitation in association with
the approach and passage of a cold front. Improved conditions are
anticipated Wednesday afternoon, featuring full VFR, as high
pressure becomes dominant in the wake of the cold front.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night): Strong to very strong
south to southeast winds continue across the eastern portions of the
CWA this afternoon. Have extended the Wind Advisory for the
coastal counties through 6 pm as Brownsville is reporting wind
gusts to near 51 mph, and Harlingen is reporting wind gusts near
48 mph. Will let NPW expire at 4 pm for Brooks and Hidalgo
counties as winds have begun to diminish across the western half
of Deep South Texas.
Winds should diminish across the eastern half of the CWA tonight as
the pressure gradient weakens ahead of a cold front moving into the
northern and western portions of the northern ranchlands tonight.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop along the front and
move through the eastern half of Deep South Texas late tonight
into early Wed morning. Drier and cooler air will filter into the
Rio Grande valley Wed afternoon in the wake of the front bringing
an end to rain chances from west to east. Wind Advisories may be
needed for the coastal counties Wed morning for strong north
winds. Surface high pressure will settle into the area Wed night
allowing winds to relax. Temperatures will be near normal tonight
before becoming below normal tomorrow and will continue to be
below normal Wed night. Temperatures will remain above freezing
Wed night even as clear skies and light winds provide strong
radiational cooling tomorrow night.
LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): Mid-level longwave troughing
will continue across the eastern United States, with a series of
shortwave troughs rotating through the Central U.S. for much of
the long term period. Persistent zonal to northwesterly flow will
bring periodic cooler weather to Deep South Texas with brief warm-
ups to near normal. Beginning near the end of the week, high
pressure having moved off to the east will bring return flow out
of the ESE, with temperatures warming up to near normal. A weak
cold front will approach from the north on Friday, but models
continue to show this may not reach the CWA. The next notable
shortwave will move into the region on Saturday, bringing much
deeper moisture and a cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Rain
chances look likely with some thunderstorms possible along the
initial boundary sometime Saturday evening and night. Thereafter,
conditions dry out significantly with RH values below 10% aloft
and down to 850mb, dropping rain chances to near zero.
Temperatures may be able to rebound into the mid 70s on Monday
before the next front possibly comes through at the end of the
MARINE (Now through Wednesday night): Hazardous marine conditions
will continue through much of the short term period. The Gale
Warning for 20-60nm will be let go at 3pm, however, Small Craft
Adv was needed overnight for the Gulf Waters. There will be a very
slight break in the winds tonight just ahead of the frontal
boundary. That said, wave heights will remain elevated so again
kept the SCA going. Winds will once again increase as the front
blasts through the region early Wednesday leading to winds in
excess of gale force. Conditions will improve toward Wednesday
evening as pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure begin to
build into the region.
Thursday through Tuesday: As winds diminish and shift back to the
east southeast on Thursday, seas will quickly subside to 2 to 4
feet across the Gulf waters. The gradient will tighten once again
Friday night and Saturday as the next storm system develops across
South Texas, bringing likely Small Craft Advisory conditions to
portions of the coastal waters this weekend. Light flow will
Sunday night and Monday will bring improved marine conditions
ahead of the next possible front on Tuesday.
FIRE WEATHER...20 foot winds will be 15 to 20 knots from the
northwest tomorrow afternoon with relative humidity values falling
between 20 and 30 percent across most of the CWA. A fire danger
statement will be needed for most of deep south Texas Wed afternoon
as a result. If winds are higher/relative humidity values lower than
currently expected...then a Red Flag Warning will likely be needed
for portions of the CWA Wed afternoon.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday
Gale Warning from 4 AM to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ130-132-135.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ150-155-170-
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ150-155-170-
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