Location:  
MeteoStar

FXUS61 KBTV 170902
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
402 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level shortwave will continue to track across the
region today bringing isolated to scattered light mountain snow
showers as a cold front sags south out of Canada. Quiet weather
returns along with below normal temperatures through the
Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 357 AM EST Saturday...After a busy couple of days we're
trending much less active for the weekend. An upper level trough
will swing across the region today sagging a shallow surface
front through the North Country this afternoon. Scatted mountain
snow showers will be prevalent for much of the day before
tapering off this evening. Its not out of the question that we
see some snow squalls develop with that cold front as the
thermal gradient is pretty sharp. Model soundings show fairly
steep lapse rates and decent instability so its possible some
of the showers could develop into brief heavy snow squalls with
significant reduction in visibilities. Expect plenty of mid and
low level clouds through the day today with some modestly gusty
winds in northern New York. High pressure will build in across
New England and we'll see highs only in the mid 30s today and
rather chilly Sunday behind the cold front. Expect highs only in
the mid to upper 20s. Lows this evening should fall to the
teens to near 20 in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 AM EST Saturday...Relatively quiet weather with
continued below normal temperatures for the short-term period. A
modest 700-500mb positive tilt trough passes thru the srn tier
of New York into central New England during Sunday night. This
system may spread some light stratiform snowfall northward into
s-central VT, but mainly looking at mostly cloudy to cloudy
conditions across the srn half of the CWA, with little or no
precipitation expected. Limited PoPs to near 20%. Overnight lows
will range from mid-20s for Rutland/Windsor counties, to the
upper teens and lower 20s across the north.

Generally dry Monday/Monday night, though weakly cyclonic
850-700mb flow may generate a few snow showers associated with
moisture advection from the ern Great Lakes, especially across
nrn NY. Temperatures are expected to reach the low-mid 30s on
Monday, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s for Monday
night under variably cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 401 AM EST Saturday...Amplification of upper ridge across
the Pacific NW into British Columbia will result in an active
northern branch jet stream and a NW flow pattern across south-
central Canada into the nern CONUS thru the long-term forecast
period. Moisture will be limited with these continental
systems/embedded shortwave troughs, but anticipate periods of
snow showers during the day Tuesday, and again on
Wednesday/Wednesday evening. The Wednesday system - in both the
00Z GFS and ECMWF - is associated with a more well-defined
arctic bndry and digging upper level trough. May see some more
widespread snow showers or possible snow squalls along the
arctic front as it passes from west-to-east across nrn NY and
VT...likely Wednesday aftn/eve based on latest indications.
Overall pattern will keep daytime temperatures well below
normal, with highs mainly in the upper 20s for Tuesday and
Wednesday, and potentially only in the low-mid 20s for
Thanksgiving Day, with a chance of flurries and wind chill
readings in the single digits above zero. In fact, the 00Z
ECMWF-MOS for BTV indicates a high of just 20F for Thanksgiving
Day (22F on the GFS-MOS). High pressure brings lighter winds and
continued cold for Thursday night into Friday, though temps
should moderate slightly into the upr 20s to near 30F on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Expect generally MVFR to low VFR at all
sites through the rest of the overnight hours. The exception is
at SLK where 600-800 foot ceilings will hold on through the
overnight hours. Ceilings will gradually lift back towards VFR
after 15-18z. Expect prevailing VFR visibilities with perhaps
some brief MVFR or IFR in mountain snow showers. Winds will
generally be 5-10 knots out of the west with occasional gusts to
20kts over northern New York through the TAF period. More snow
showers are likely along the international border in the
afternoon today as a surface front pushes south. Some snow
squalls may be possible for the northern TAF sites which could
produce short windows of LIFR.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Deal
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page