FXUS61 KBTV 190714
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
314 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Persistent northwesterly flow will keep unseasonably cold and
dry weather over the North Country through midweek. A coastal
low will strengthen Wednesday as it moves from the Carolina
Coast northeastward. The brunt of the impacts with this system
still look to be to our south and east, however can't rule out
some precipitation over areas of Vermont Wednesday and Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 314 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will build across
the North Country, keeping conditions cool and dry. A couple of
shortwaves will traverse through the northwest flow aloft, but given
the very dry airmass in place, don't expect much out of these other
than some scattered clouds. Highs today will be similar to
yesterday, ranging from the upper teens in the Northeast Kingdom to
the upper 20s in the wider valleys. Tonight will be chilly once
again as most places bottom out in the single digits. Tuesday will
see some improvement in temperatures and the core of the cold air
begins to lift north and east. Temperatures will top out in the
upper 20s to lower 30s on Tuesday
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 342 PM EDT Sunday...Temps will continue to be forecast challenge
during this time period as dry northwest flow aloft prevails.
Given position of mid/upper level trof axis directly overhead
and timing of short energy...thinking this will help deflect
moisture/qpf from reaching our southern cwa on Tuesday night. Fast
confluent flow aloft continues over the mid Atlantic States as
gradient strengthens between high pres over central Canada and
low pres across eastern NC. This combined with some high clouds
and approaching s/w energy in flow aloft will make for a
challenging temp forecast. Progged 850mb temps warm between -10c
and -12c by 18z Tuesday...with full sun and some mixing will
support large difference in temps from valleys to summits. Have
mentions temps from mid/upper teens summits to lower/mid 30s
warmer valleys. Tue night...expect the exact opposite to occur
with coolest readings in the deeper/protected valley as shallow
but sharp low level thermal inversions develop, especially with
snow pack. Have temps from -5f slk/nek valleys to mid teens
midslope elevations. No precip/snow expected in this time
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 342 PM EDT Sunday...Little overall change from previous several
days...as mid/upper level trof continues across the eastern
conus. Still watching system along the mid Atlantic seaboard
from mid week...but thinking northern stream energy approaching
the international border around 12z Weds will help to deflect
moisture/qpf to our south initially. However...with an upstream
block still lingering have noticed in latest 12z Euro and 00z
GEM runs some late system phasing to occur. This helps system
become vertically stacked across northern Maine/Eastern Canada
by 12z Thursday with some backside moisture sneaking into our
northern/eastern cwa. The 12z Euro is most aggressive with
showing favorable mid level moisture profiles...along with
upslope flow and embedded 5h vort impacting our zones. Given the
recent performance don't want to completely not account for
latest trends in Euro...so have bumped pops into the chc range
from northern VT mountains...NEK...and western slopes from Weds
Night thru Thursday. 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles show values
btwn -5c to -9c during this time frame...which is cold enough
for snow...with some mix in the deeper valleys during the
daytime heating. Still even with the latest euro qpf/snowfall
will be light...but any additional shifts east or west will need
to be watched closely. Temps mainly 30s valleys and 20s
mountains with lows mid teens to mid 20s.
Weak high pres builds into the area late Friday into Saturday with
dry weather and slightly below normal temps. Progged 850mb temps
between -8c and -10c support highs mid 20s to mid 30s with a few
warmer valleys near 40f on Saturday. Lots of uncertainty of next
system on Sunday into early the following week...as upstream
blocking prevails. Moisture/energy and warmer air will try surging
northeast toward our cwa from the central Plains...while additional
northern stream energy and colder air is dropping southeast over the
ne CONUS. A period of unsettled and cool weather is
possible...especially as we start the new week. Temps will remain on
the cool side with mid/upper level trof in place.
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. High pressure building into the region will keep dry
conditions over the area and little in the way of any cloud
cover. Winds will generally be under 10 knots with a direction
from the north and northwest.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
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