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FXUS61 KBTV 190832
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
432 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the area today bringing relatively
dry conditions and temperatures slightly below seasonal normals. An
upper level disturbance moving into the region later today into this
evening could bring a few snow showers to the Northern Adirondacks
of New York. South to southwest winds develop on Wednesday and will
bring above normal temperatures to the region with highs in the 40s.
The next chance for precipitation will come late Wednesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 432 AM EDT Tuesday...Weak shortwave trough will be
exiting the area this morning taking with it the clouds and
scattered light snow showers over the southern third of Vermont.
With high pressure over the area we should remain relatively
dry for a better part of the day. However...another weak
shortwave trough in the northwest flow aloft and the development
of weak instability will result in some light snow showers over
parts of northern New York later today into the first part of
tonight. High temperatures today will be a degree or two warmer
than Monday.

We will start to see the flow aloft back to the west and southwest
tonight and Wednesday. Warm air advection will result and we should
have a noticeably jump in high temperatures on Wednesday with highs
in the 40s expected. The backing flow aloft will is in response to a
developing upper level trough of low pressure. This feature will
remain well west of the area and thus no precipitation is expected
on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 432 AM EDT Tuesday...Trends in the data suggest that the
upper trough axis does not move into the area until Thursday. As
a result...precipitation should be delayed a bit with the first
half of Wednesday night remaining dry. Eventually the
precipitation moves into the region late Wednesday night and
especially on Thursday as the upper trough finally moves into
the region. The increasing moisture Wednesday night in the
southwest flow aloft should result in warmer overnight
lows...generally in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Thus the larger
valleys late Wednesday night should see precipitation in the for
of rain showers while higher elevations and eastern Vermont
stay cold enough for snow showers. Highs on Thursday will reach
into the 40s again and thus most areas will see rain showers
with the highest elevations experiencing snow showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 432 AM EDT Tuesday...Models continue to struggle to come
into some closer agreement on the coastal low just east of the
DELMARVA region. The ECMWF still seems to be the most robust of
the models with surface low dragging across southern New England
leading to more projected snowfall across NEK and the northern
Greens, while the GFS keeps the low out over the coastline and
brings more conservative amounts over Eastern VT, though higher
than the prior model runs. Friday does show a trough axis swings
through the region with a nice shortwave tracking through the
region, bringing with it snow showers, mainly in the higher
terrain and a rain-snow mix in the valleys. Overall QPF amounts
don't look to be too significant right now, but shifting
northwest flow mid-day Friday could lead to some overperforming
snowfall amounts for NEK and the northern Greens through
Saturday morning.

The low moves off to the northeast during the day Saturday, leading
to a rather quiet weekend, though the continued northwest flow will
keep temperatures seasonably cool with most areas struggling to get
above freezing. Sunday will see flow shift back to the west-southwest
and high bounce back to normal to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Upper level disturbance moving across
the area early this morning will bring some clouds and light
snow showers to the area through about 10z...but VFR conditions
are expected. VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of
the period...but a few snow showers are possible this afternoon
at KSLK. However...visibilities will remain in the VFR category.
Winds will be less than 10 knots through the period.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Evenson
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