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FXUS61 KBTV 060235
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1035 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and upper level trough of low pressure will move down
from Canada later tonight and Saturday producing fairly widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms through the first half of the
weekend. Cooler and drier weather is expected for Sunday before a
warming trend takes place early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1027 PM EDT Friday...Thunderstorms across central Vermont
have mostly abated at this time. However, radar indicates
showers making their way into northern New York from the west
associated with the prefrontal trough. Cloud cover is
increasing across northern New York as well. Therefore, slight
adjustments have been made to the sky and probability of
precipitation forecast. Mention of patchy fog has also been included
along river valleys in eastern Vermont where it has recently
rained. Otherwise, the rest of the going forecast remains on
track.

Previous Discussion...Really no big changes to what we've been
forecasting for the past few days with the near term highlights
being todays heat followed by a series of surface boundaries
tonight and Saturday. Many locations looking at temps in the
mid/upper 80s this afternoon with several close to record
values. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a good amount of
instability up to 1000 J/kg across much of the region, but
without any available forcing convection has been very isolated
with limited cloud depths. Any additional convection that fires
this afternoon will wane this evening with the loss of
insolational heating, and it should be a quiet first half of the
night while we await a pre- frontal trough dropping
southeastward from southern Ontario/Quebec.

By the time the trough reaches the region towards midnight,
instability will be at a minimum, but with increasing dynamic
support (steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing low/mid
level sheer) we could see some thunder embedded in fairly widespread
showers, mainly across central and northern areas. Heading into
Saturday, overnight precipitation will wane for a few hours in the
morning in-between the exiting trough and an approaching cold front
which will renew showers and the chance for thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon. Still some question on the severity of storms we might
see with timing of the frontal passage uncertain. At this time it
appears the best chance for any stronger storms will be along and
east of the Greens where surface temps will have a chance to rise
into mid/upper 70s and progged MLCAPEs are in the 400-800 J/kg range.

Showers will linger into Saturday night, but generally decrease in
coverage after midnight as the best forcing and deep layer moisture
shift offshore. Lows will turn back to the chilly side of normal in
the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 PM EDT Friday...Still looking like a quiet Sunday,
especially in westernmost areas of the North Country. Models are
hinting at stratocumulus hanging around through the morning hours
east of the Adirondacks, supporting some very light showers or
sprinkles, particularly over northern and northeastern Vermont.
Generally expect decreasing clouds during the day and temperatures
will be able to recover into the 60s and low 70s in the lower
valleys, with warmest conditions likely in the St. Lawrence Valley.
Northerly surface winds will be occasionally gusty, but generally
trending lighter through the day as the pressure gradient relaxes.
With dew points remaining in the 40s and clear skies, overnight
temperatures should easily fall back into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Friday...On Monday the center of a broad area of
surface high pressure will move overhead. This means winds will
become light and variable, and this will continue through Tuesday as
the high slowly translates eastward. Expect a continued warming
trend with plenty of sunshine. On Wednesday, we will see heat ride
northward between a unseasonably intense storm over the upper
Midwest and a ridge setting up over the western Atlantic. This
scenario is reminiscent of two weeks ago to the day that led to
record setting heat in the North Country, but the model consensus at
this time shows that the core of the heat this time may be further
west or not at intense. Furthermore, cloud cover may progress more
quickly eastward than previously forecast as a pre-frontal trough
approaches as soon as Wednesday evening.

After that, we have to watch how the cold front to our west
progresses. There are currently indications that it will slow or
even stall out due to convergent flow from the easterly approach of
a subtropical system. While there will likely be periods of mostly
cloudy or completely overcast skies on Thursday and Friday amidst
seasonably warm and humid air, at this point there are too many
question marks with the timing of the cold frontal passage to have a
good handle on the details. Similarly, precipitation chances across
the North Country exist throughout these two days, but will be fine
tuned as models become more consistent on where a showery conveyor
belt of sorts establishes itself.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...A few isolated showers/storms have
developed over the trrn this evening with light rain impacting
MPV/RUT and lightning being detected at MPV/BTV. Have VCSH
shower with tempo group for MPV thru 01z, otherwise expect this
activity to decrease once sunsets. Additional showers/storms
will develop along a cold front and approach the SLV btwn
04-06Z. Expecting a broken line of showers with embedded
thunderstorms with the heavier convective elements capable of
brief mvfr/ifr conditions. Expect the activity to be acrs the
CPV btwn 08z-12z Saturday with a wind shift to the northwest
expected by 15z. A secondary cold front with additional showers
will occur btwn 15z-18z on Saturday with main focus from SLK
eastward into our VT terminals. If MPV get hit with heavier
rainfall this evening with showers to west, some br/fog is
possible btwn 03-07z, before additional showers and associated
clouds impact the site.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Hammond/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
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