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FXUS61 KBTV 222339
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will settle across the North Country
tonight, bringing diminishing wind and mostly clear skies. Areas
of frost are expected across the northern Adirondacks and most
of central and eastern Vermont late tonight, along with patchy
fog in the favored river valleys. High pressure will bring
continued dry conditions right through Monday night, with
seasonable high temperatures in the 60s Sunday and Monday. As
high pressure departs to the east, a moist southwest flow will
develop in advance of the next frontal system Tuesday and
Wednesday with increasing cloudiness and possible rain both
Tuesday and Wednesday. Weather conditions should trend drier
with high pressure returning late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 646 PM EDT Saturday... Thin cirrus clouds continue to
stream across our region for the inaugural day of astronomical
Fall 2018. Cirrus will continue to shift south throughout the
evening with gradual clearing heading into tonight. Nudged sky
cover to match satellite trends and made minor tweaks to hourly
temps for the next few hours. All else remains in excellent
shape with the forecast. Have a great night.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Synoptically quiescent conditions will prevail over the next 36
hours as 1028mb sfc anticyclone shifts ewd from the central
Great Lakes region. Post-frontal low-level CAA this aftn has
resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and gusty winds in
moderate nwly gradient flow this afternoon. A few gusts to 30
mph remain possible across VT through early evening, but onset
of diurnal cooling cycle should quickly diminish winds to light
and variable after sunset. Likewise, scattered stratocu in steep
lapse rate environment will dissipate as PBL stabilizes this
evening.

Some thin cirrus clouds continue in place overnight, and may act
as a brake on falling temperatures in otherwise good radiative
cooling conditions. That said, appears enough coverage of low
temps 32-36F across central/ern VT and ern Chittenden County to
warrant expansion of frost advisory to these areas overnight.
Will maintain freeze warning for Essex Co. VT, and expand frost
advisory to cover all of the nrn Adirondacks. With moist soil
conditions from Friday's rainfall and isold tstms, should also
see some patchy dense fog develop 06-13Z, especially in the
favored river valleys of central/ern VT.

Weak secondary front pushes into the region Sunday afternoon,
with light west winds becoming light NW 5-10mph in the
afternoon. Also appears we'll see scattered mid-level clouds,
especially across the northern areas. However, PoPs NIL. High
temperatures for Sunday generally in the low-mid 60s, followed
by lows 35-43F on Sunday night. May again see some patchy frost
develop in the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT for Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure will begin to slide
eastward on Monday, but still expect plenty of sunshine as the
ridge axis shifts east. Easterly flow will keep temperatures
below normal, in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Monday night will
be a little warmer as we see return south flow around the back
of the departing high. Clouds will increase overnight as well,
but anticipate a dry night for most, with perhaps a few showers
making it into far southwestern portions of our region late.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...Increasing moisture and chances for
precipitation on Tuesday as a low pressure system passes well
north of our region, but fronts associated with this low will
cross our CWA. Warm front crossing the area Tuesday will bring
widespread light rain showers, then will have a chance for
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front which crosses the region
on Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look breezy
until the cold fropa ushers in drier weather and high pressure
once again for Thursday. The break in the action will be brief,
with another trough and low pressure system bringing additional
chances for precipitation at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...High pressure will be shifting east during
the evening with VFR conditions and no precipitation. Winds
will be light and mostly terrain driven with thin upper cirrus
clearing out. This will lead to radiation fog across favored
sites KSLK and KMPV, which could reach LIFR conditions at times
from roughly 07Z to 13Z. From 14Z onward, VFR conditions will
prevail. Scattered mid-level clouds at 10kft-15kft agl will
advance south from Canada ahead of a cold front with no
precipitation anticipated. Winds will gradually become more
northwesterly after 16Z, except at KPBG, where the lake breeze
could impart a more easterly wind until about 22Z. Wind speeds
will be mainly 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
VTZ003-006>008-010-012-017.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Haynes
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