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FXUS61 KBTV 250700
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
300 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant late August weather conditions will persist across the
North Country through Tuesday as high pressure remains anchored
over southern Quebec and New England. Temperatures will slowly
moderate, with valley highs trending up from the mid 70s today,
to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Tuesday. A weakening occulded
front will bring the next chance for rain showers, most likely
during Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 111 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure anchored over southern
Quebec and northern New England will bring tranquil late August
weather conditions to our region. Some patchy stratus in low-
level easterly flow exist across s-central VT per surface
observations and satellite imagery early this morning. These
clouds should drift westward into the Adirondacks toward mid-
morning before dissipating around mid-day. Otherwise should see
mainly clear conditions today through Monday. With more
sunshine than yesterday and a gradual moderation of 925mb
temperatures, should be about 5 degrees warmer today (valley
highs mid-70s) and a couple degrees warmer again for Monday
(valley highs upper-70s). Good radiational cooling tonight with
lows generally mid-40s to lower-50s, and some patchy fog
development 05-12Z across the valleys of central/ern VT and
within the valleys of the northern Adirondack region. PoPs NIL
through the Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...Weak ridging aloft and associated
high pressure at the surface will continue to bring dry weather
to the area Monday night and Tuesday. Clear skies and light
winds Monday night will lead to lows in the upper 40s to upper
50s with some spots in the northern Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom pushing 40 degrees. Warmer 925 millibar temperatures and
a good deal of sun on Tuesday will allow highs to get into the
70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...Eventually we will see the upper
ridge gradually shift east Tuesday night and southwest flow
aloft develops on Wednesday. This pattern will persist through
the end of the week and thus looking at an increased threat of
showers during this period. Looks like Wednesday afternoon and
evening will have the best chance for the showers as a cold
front moves across the region and at some point all areas should
see likely precipitation chances. Not seeing any parameters
that suggests organized convection during this period and thus
will leave weather as showers. Highs in the extended should be
right around seasonal normals with a trend toward cooler
temperatures over the weekend as a pattern change is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Rather tranquil period of aviation wx
conditions. Intervals of LIFR fog 07-12Z expected at MPV/SLK.
Otherwise, bkn- ovc050-060 will affect KRUT as areas of stratus
advect westward, and mainly SKC elsewhere. After 12Z, all sites
should trend SKC. Winds generally light north to northeast as
high pressure shifts eastward across Quebec. Should see
redevelopment of fog overnight at MPV/SLK with light and
variable winds areawide.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Banacos
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