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FXUS61 KBTV 232001
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Noticeably cooler and drier conditions will be felt across the
region through the weekend. West to nortwesterly flow in the
low and middle levels of the atmosphere will keep the cool and
dry air reinforced through the weekend. Weak upper level
disturbances will move through the region and generate isoloated
light rainshowers, but most of the area will remain dry.
Temperatures will be near to a bit below their seasonal normals.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 401 PM EDT Wednesday...Radar showing light showers moving
off Lake Ontario in weak 500 mb shortwave trough moving through
mean trough, and reflected in weak surface trough as well.
Expect showers to continue a few more hours in the daytime
instability and drift across the central Adirondacks before
dissipating. Chance pops through early evening decrease after
00z. Otherwise cool dry night. Enough of a surface pressure
gradient to keep westerly low level flow and prevent decoupling
and ideal radiational cooling, with lows mainly in the 50s. The
usual cooler pockets should see mins dip into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 PM EDT Wednesday...500 mb trough remains over the
northeast during this period with periodic shortwave troughs
rotating through. In particular one late Thursday will increase
clouds, however moisture remains too limited for anything other
than slight chance for showers in the higher terrain. Otherwise
dry. Low heights associated with upper trough and overall west
to northwest flow will reinforce cool temps and dry humidity.
Temps to average a couple degrees below normal but still
seasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 401 PM EDT Wednesday...Models show one more shortwave
translating through the trough Saturday night before the trough
finally moves east and upper level riding enters the region. At
the surface, northerly flow will become southerly. At this point
the long term forecast looks predominantly dry. Temperatures
will also continue to be seasonal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...The weak impulses moving over the region
over the next 24 hours will bring slight chances of showers
during the afternoon/evening. MVFR cigs are expected in the
higher elevation TAF sites overnight. Otherwise VFR conditions
will dominate the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...NRR
AVIATION...NRR
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