FXUS61 KBTV 061346
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
946 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. A COUPLE
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 933 AM EDT MONDAY...A MID-LVL VORTICITY AXIS SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER IR
IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ONCE THE VORT AXIS
SHIFTS FURTHER SE...MID-LEVEL AVA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSIDENCE
AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED.
AT THE SFC...1035MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL
BUILD SLOWLY SEWD...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REACHING SERN
ONTARIO/CENTRAL NY BY 12Z TUESDAY. A NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AIR MASS MIXES OUT LATE
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS. LOOKING AT 10M WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18 KTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND ESTABLISH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MOST
SECTIONS WILL GO AOB 32F FOR LOWS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE/CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS. WE WILL MAINTAIN FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES AS THEY CURRENTLY EXIST...AS CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A COUPLE NICE DAYS ON TAP FOR TUES AND
WED...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST. EXPECTING AN
INCR IN HIGHS FROM TUES INTO WED AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE WSW
BY WED. HAVE GONE A COUPLE DEGREES ABV GUIDNACE FOR WEDNESDAY W/
850 TEMPS NEARING +8C TO +10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...ABV NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO WED NGT
AND THURSDAY AS STRONG WAA STREAMS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF CD FRNT.
MDLS HAVE SHIFTED ON STRENGTH OF APPROACHING FRNT OVER PAST FEW
RUNS...WHICH WILL AFFECT AMT OF QPF FOR FROPA. THIS RUN A BIT
STRONGER FOR NORTHERN SECTION...BUT DOES WEAKEN SOME AS WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND SYSTEM. SOUTHERN PORTION OF FRNT BECM CUTOFF LOW
OVER SE COAST AND REDEVELOPS ENOUGH TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NEW ENG FOR
FRI AND FRI NGT. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF MOST PRECIP IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AS RIDGE BLOCKS FULL NORTHERN PUSH. A BIT OF REPRIEVE ON
SATURDAY W/ WEAK RIDGE NOSING INTO AREA AND DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF SECOND
FRNT...WHICH PUSHES THRU LATE SUNDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WELL ABV
NORMAL INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDS WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4000 TO 8000 FT...AND A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS THIS PM...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
CLOUDS. EXPECT SKC BY 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW 10 TO 15
KTS TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LOCAL IFR/LIFR
IN RADIATION FOG 06Z-14Z WEDNESDAY IN SHELTERED VLYS...INCLUDING
TAF SITES MPV/SLK. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE WED NITE/THURS...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY VFR. DRY WX
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
NOTICE TO USERS OF TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAF)...BEGINNING
AT 0000 UTC ON NOVEMBER 5...2008...THE FORMAT FOR TAFS WILL
CHANGE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE TAFS
USING A VALID DATE AND TIME GROUP IN THE FORECAST. ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES WORLDWIDE WILL ALSO ISSUE THEIR TAF
FORECASTS IN THIS NEW FORMAT. THIS IS BEING DONE TO ACCOMMODATE
30 HOUR TAF FORECASTS THAT WILL BE DONE FOR SELECT MAJOR
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS WORLDWIDE. THERE WILL BE 32 MAJOR U.S.
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS FOR WHICH TAFS FORECASTS WILL BE VALID FOR
30 HOURS. THIS FORMAT CHANGE IS BEING MANDATED BY THE
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (ICAO). THE 6 TAF
FORECASTS BEING DONE BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BURLINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO BE VALID FOR 24 HOURS. TO SEE
EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW FORMAT...PLEASE GO TO THE INTERNET WEB SITE
LISTED BELOW.
WWW.AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-006-
008-010-016>019.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-
005-009-011-012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
087.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS
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