FXUS61 KBTV 050914
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...ANOTHER TRANQUIL WEATHER DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. WITH 850S TEMPS AROUND -10
C...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
REGION...850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND -4 C TONIGHT AND MIN TEMPS
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS
IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO
DRASTICALLY. ON MONDAY 850 TEMPS WARM TO ALMOST 0 C...THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE ARE MONDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPES. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT...BUT DROP
INTO THE TEENS. SURFACE HIGH RIDGES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO AROUND -12 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT MAY SPREAD SOME CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS SOUTH. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THEN TRACKS FROM OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS. WITH DEPARTURE OF THIS FEATURE THURSDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD. ECMWF INDICATES
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
COLDER AIR TO BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DIGS
THE TROUGH FURTHER WEST...ALLOWING FOR UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. IT ALSO DEVELOPS SURFACE LOW NEAR THE VIRGINIA
CAPES AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST TO CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. SO
WHILE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE DECREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA...GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
SATURDAY. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH MAINTAINS
BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI...THEN BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF
ONTARIO WITH CEILINGS 2.5-3.5KFT. THIS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MAKING VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS...AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHERN NY SUNDAY MORNING AND IN
VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CIGS AT 3.5KFT WITH A
LOWER SCATTERED DECK. EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KTS DURING SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THRU WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...ALONG
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACRS OUR TAF SITES ON TUES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. INCREASED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




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