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FXUS61 KBTV 232328
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
728 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide fair conditions and seasonable
temperatures tonight through Thursday night. May see an isolated
shower or thunderstorm northern sections late Friday, along with
warmer temperatures with valley highs in the low to mid 80s on
Friday. More uncertainty arrives by the upcoming weekend as an
increase in moisture and a cold front sinking southward from
Canada may lead to periods of rain showers, especially Saturday
and Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 719 PM EDT Wednesday...Monitoring just a couple of isold
early evening showers vcnty Jay Peak/Newport tracking sewd at
25-30 mph. Anticipate gradual dissipation with onset of diurnal
cooling cycle and loss of steep PBL lapse rates. Winds generally
W-NW at 5-10 mph...but will become light and variable and
controlled by local orographic influences by 02Z or so. May see
some patchy frost in the colder spots of the nrn Adirondacks and
hallows of Vermont's Northeast Kingdom. Most locations will see
somewhat crisp temperatures with pre-dawn lows in the low-mid
40s, and locally in the mid 30s far nern VT and around KSLK.

High pressure remains our controlling weather feature for
Thursday and Thursday night. PoPs NIL. Temps will be slightly
cooler than normal in the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday as we're
still on the western edge of the departing trough, but
increasing southerly flow Thursday night will keep lows mild in
the upper 40s to upper 50s. Looking at very comfortable humidity
on Thursday with dewpoints in the low-mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm and windy day is expected
Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across our
Northern zones Friday afternoon and into the evening. Southerly
flow will become westerly by mid day on Friday and temps will
warm rapidly. The westerly warm air advection will bring 925mb
temps of 18C to 21C over the region meaning low to mid 80s can
be expected. Expect gusts during the morning and afternoon hours
of between 25-30 mph. With the higher temps and decent mixing
there's some potential for showers to develop in the afternoon
hours on Friday. Showalters turn negative across much of
Northern Vermont and Northern New York during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 353 PM EDT Wednesday...Lots of uncertainty still with the
weekend forecast, though the period looks active with several
chances for rain showers. Models are still indicating a back
door cold front dropping south across our region later in the
day Saturday and bringing with it a chance for light rain
showers. This front will stall out to our South Saturday night
and into Sunday. There will be clouds across the region, and
continued chance for light rain showers during the day Sunday.
Models are leaning towards a solution where it's wetter in
Northern New York than in Vermont and this is reflected in my
forecast with likely wording in NY and chance in VT. An upper
level trough will swing through the region on Monday into Monday
night bringing more chances for showers and possible thunder in
Northern New York. Temperatures will be near normal during the
weekend and heading into next week, generally low 70s for highs.
Ridge of surface high pressure will build back into the region
for Tue and Wed of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR and mostly clear conditions are
expected through the period at the TAF sites. Daytime cumulus
clouds will dissipate 00-02Z with FEW-sct200-250 thru the
remainder of the period. Light and variable winds overnight, and
generally 10kts or less for the daylight hours on Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG/Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Banacos/Lahiff
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