FXUS61 KBUF 050818
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
318 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE TREND SHOWS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS STREAMING
SOUTHWARD INDICATIVE OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. COLDER LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THEN A NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY...WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
REPLACED BY SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL DO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING DURING THE NIGHT...
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL LOSS TO DROP TEMPS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SOLIDLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...YIELDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY MONDAY. SUNSHINE
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD GET HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S...PERHAPS ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WESTERN NEW
YORK GETS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND HIGH CENTERED
TO OUR SOUTH. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGESTING WINDS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...BUT FOR
NOW WILL SUGGEST A WINDY 20 TO 30 MPH DAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A BAND OF MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ITSELF...AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE WITH
OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASING...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 3-4K FEET. DRY MID LEVELS COURTESY OF A BROAD
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIMIT SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN GROUND IN COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
AND WILL LIKELY FALL OFF DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES SOME QUIET WEATHER TO START FOR MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BE SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
US. TEMPERATURES WED WILL AGAIN BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE FORECAST BECOMES INTERESTING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HINT AT A DEEP TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED POLAR AIR MASS POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THE LONG RANGE. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE 12Z GFS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS ARCTIC AIR (850MB TEMPS
TO -20C) WILL LIKELY TOUCH OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING AND LOCATION HAS YET TO BE REFINED SO WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS ARCTIC AIR THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING A
SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE LAKES. GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER
THAN ECMWF. FORECAST FEATURES SOME ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS
LOW THURSDAY THEN DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME
RAIN OR SNOW...DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. THEN A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CIGS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...WHILE SOME
CIRRUS WILL BE FOUND CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK BORDER.

MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION (EXCEPTION KJHW) SUNDAY MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE MIDDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON (EVENING FOR KART).

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW WAVES.

LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC. WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WHICH WILL LAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...WCH




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