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FXUS61 KBUF 191735
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
135 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the region will continue dry weather and
comfortable temperatures through tonight. A weak wave and area of
low pressure will track south of the region Wednesday, with a few
scattered showers and more cloud cover south of Lake Ontario. A weak
cold front will cross the region Wednesday night, with Canadian
sourced surface high then expected to build into the lower lakes
with dry and fair weather through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure across the region this afternoon will maintain
pleasant June temperatures and low humidity through tonight.
Temperatures across the region are in the low to mid 70s, and will
not surpass the mid 70s through the remainder of the afternoon.

Tonight, light winds and low dew points will allow low temperatures
to drop into the 50s across the region. A few upper 40s readings are
possible in the North County where skies remain clear the longest.

On Wednesday a weak shortwave tracking out of the northern Plains
will push a weak surface low south of the forecast area. Upstream
convection attendant to this feature continues to give the forecast
models some difficulty in resolving the track of the wave. NAM-based
guidance has trended a bit northward over the previous model runs,
while the medium range global models remain farther south. Have
hedged the forecast PoPs back to the north slightly out of respect
to the NAM based guidance. However, either way, QPF amounts should
be on the light side as the moisture will be eroded as it runs into
the drier air associated with the surface high to our east. Thus,
continue to keep PoPs limited to the chance range, even across the
Southern Tier, as there will likely be far more dry time than not on
Wednesday. Temperatures will range from the low 70s across the
Southern Tier where thicker cloud cover is expected to near the 80
degree mark across the Lake Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure centered over the northern reaches of Ontario
Wednesday evening will then settle south during the course of
the night. This will push the aforementioned weak cool front
across our region in the process. While there may be a brief
increase in clouds during the passage of this moisture starved
feature...have only used slgt chc pops for the Eastern Lake
Ontario region. Otherwise fair weather can be expected with the
mercury falling into the 50s.

For Thursday and Thursday night...the Canadian surface high will
drift across our forecast area. A wealth of dry air and plenty of
subsidence associated with this feature will guarantee clear skies
and comfortable temperatures and humidity levels...as highs will
generally be in the mid 70s on Thursday with cool mins Thursday
night ranging from the lower 50s across the lake plains to the 40s
for much of the Southern Tier and in the North Country.

As a shortwave ridge passes over and to the east of our region on
Friday...the remnants of a closed mid level low will advance to the
mid western states. This will set up a warm advective pattern over
our region with a notable increase in moisture over the far western
counties. While there may be enough isentropic lift for some late
day showers over Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties...will be
conservative with the pops for now and only increase them to slgt
chc by days end. Elsewhere...Friday should be pleasant with plenty
of sun and comfortably warm conditions. while most areas should make
it back to around 80...dew points will only be in the lower 50s.

The relatively broad area of low pressure over the mid western
states Friday evening will approach the Lower Great Lakes during the
course of the night. A warm front associated with this mature system
will advance to the north across the Southern Tier in the process...
and this should support scattered showers and possible thunderstorms
over the western counties. Its not out of the question that the
leading edge of this shower activity makes it into the North Country
by daybreak...but will only carry slgt chc pops for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There is increasing confidence that the weekend will be unsettled
with showers and thunderstorms...as a building number of medium
range ensembles are suggesting that a broad...slow moving area of
low pressure will cross the Lower Great Lakes. The silver lining to
this scenario is that much of the area still needs the rain for
agricultural purposes...although it will certainly put on damper on
outside activities.

On Saturday...the center of the loosely organized surface low will
track across Lower Michigan to southernmost Ontario. The attendant
warm front will be pushed north across our region in the process...
so have raised pops to likely for showers and possible
thunderstorms. While temperatures will be similar to those from
Friday...there should be a noticeable increase in humidity as dew
points are forecast to climb back into the low to mid 60s.

As the warm front pushes north of our region Saturday night...we can
look for a general decrease in coverage of the shower activity. The
extent of the showers should pick up again on Sunday when the
exiting storm system will drop a cold front through the region.
There will also be a renewed risk for some thunderstorms...although
the bulk of the day should be rain free.

A large Canadian high will then build south across the Great lakes
Sunday night and Monday. This will promote clearing skies later
Sunday night with the return to beautiful weather Monday when we can
look forward to comfortable temperatures and much lower humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions and light winds will maintain across the
region today and tonight as high pressure builds across the area.

A few scattered rain showers are possible south of Lake Ontario
Wednesday, but cigs are expected to remain in the VFR range.

Outlook...
Wednesday night through Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR...Showers and thunderstorms
likely.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure across the region will maintain tranquil conditions
on the lakes into Wednesday. A weak cold front will cross the lakes
Wednesday night, but northeast winds and waves will remain below SCA
conditions. High pressure will build across the region again through
the end of the week keeping an extended period of optimal boating
conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Church
NEAR TERM...Church
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Church
MARINE...Church
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