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FXUS61 KBUF 090022
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
822 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Oppressive heat will be found across the majority of the region
during the next couple of days...as the apparent temperatures will
climb to near 100 across the lake plains. While showers and storms
will be few and far between during that time...they will become more
widespread Friday night and Saturday as a weak cool front slowly
works into the region. Temperatures will be a little lower this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Early evening convection that was most focused over far southern
Monroe into northern Livingston county has quickly faded away. We
are left with another very warm night with min temps staying in the
70s on the lake plains and only settling into the mid 60s Southern
Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Patchy fog again overnight in the
valleys of the Southern Tier and elsewhere locally where showers
occurred into early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Heat advisories remain in effect for oppressive heat the next two
days across the lower elevations (ie. lake plains). Apparent temps
of 95 to 100 Thurs and Fri afternoons for elevations below 1000 ft
(excluding immediate lake shores). Lows for same areas only in the
70s.

Semblance of Rex block with +20c H85 air to support the unusually
long stretch of high heat. Unfortunately...showers and storms few
and far between. Greatest chances across Srn Tier.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level shortwave will cross the region Saturday, providing
both relief from the dangerous heat, but also bring much needed
rainfall. Greatest instability of 500 to 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE will
expand northward from Central PA ahead of the upper level trough.
These showers and thunderstorms Saturday will end Saturday night as
the upper level supporting shortwave drifts eastward towards New
England. Flat ridging aloft Sunday will allow for just a spot shower
or thunderstorm in the afternoon heating. Another shortwave, lower
in amplitude will cross our region Monday. This shortwave will be
reaching WNY early in the day, and the greatest chances for thunder
will again be across eastern zones where additional daytime
instability will occur.

Tuesday and Wednesday will become dry again behind the upper level
shortwave, and increase in warmth as yet another plume of very warm
air from the Plains begins to push eastward towards our region.
Highs in the mid 80s Tuesday, will likely become lower 90s for the
lake plain Wednesday.

Looking just outside of the scope of this forecast period at the
second half of the week...there are deterministic models (ECMWF)
that are strongly suggesting the presence of a 600dm ridge that
could be centered just to our south. This is also being advertised
by the NAEFS. If this were to come to pass...then H85 temps of
21-23c would overspread the Lower Great Lakes. This would set the
stage for ANOTHER heat wave...one that would shadow the current
heat spell. In other words...a more significant heat event.

Supporting another heat wave are temperature forecasts from the
Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The Day 8-14 U.S. Hazards Outlook
map includes the Great Lakes region in an area for EXCESSIVE heat
during the July 15-21 period...and the corresponding 8-14 temp
outlook has a 80 percent bullseye for above normal temps over the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions with generally light winds expected rest of tonight.
Most of the area will stay rain free. There could be a few hours
late tonight where fog could lower VSBYs to MVFR levels...especially
in the valleys of the srn Tier where the fog could become deep
enough to impact the KJHW site with MVFR to IFR conditions between
08 and 12z.

While there will be a smattering of showers and thunderstorms across
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region on Thursday
afternoon...most of the area will be rain free.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Widely scattered showers
and storms Friday afternoon mainly inland from the lakes with
local/brief flight restrictions. Late night/early morning Southern
Tier Valley fog with local IFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively light winds will continue on Lakes Erie and Ontario
through the rest of the week with a weak pressure gradient in place.
Winds will generally be under 12 knots and waves under 2 feet.
Strong differential heating will allow for local lake breezes to
develop most afternoons with onshore wind developing.

&&

.CLIMATE...
An extended period of heat will continue across our region
through Friday, July 10th. Some daily records will be within
reach for our 3 primary climate stations. Also, the longest
streak of 90-degree days in Buffalo may be in jeopardy. Here
are the current record maximums, and warm minimums...

Wednesday July 8th Record Highs

Buffalo......96F 1988
Rochester...100F 1936
Watertown....93F 1955

Wednesday July 8th Record Warm Minimums

Buffalo......74F 1921
Rochester....75F 1938
Watertown....73F 1973

.....

Thursday July 9th Record Highs

Buffalo......92F 1988
Rochester...102F 1936
Watertown....92F 1955

Thursday July 9th Record Warm Minimums

Buffalo......76F 1897
Rochester....81F 1936
Watertown....73F 1955

....

Friday July 10th Record Highs

Buffalo......95F 1988
Rochester...102F 1936
Watertown....92F 2007

Friday July 10th Record Warm Minimums

Buffalo......76F 1897
Rochester....79F 1936
Watertown....73F 2013



Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Buffalo (Ending Date)
1) 7/10/1988 - 7
2) 7/ 8/2020 - 6 (ongoing)
3) 7/ 1/1963 - 5
-) 8/14/1947 - 5

Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Rochester (Ending Date)

1) 9/ 5/1973 - 9
2) 8/ 6/1955 - 8
-) 8/16/1944 - 8
4) 8/11/1900 - 7
5) 7/ 5/2018 - 6
-) 7/10/1988 - 6
-) 7/20/1977 - 6
-) 7/13/1936 - 6
-) 6/ 7/1925 - 6
-) 7/ 8/1921 - 6

Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Watertown (Ending Date)

1) 8/ 3/1955 - 6
2) 8/ 5/1988 - 4
-) 9/ 5/1973 - 4
4) 7/ 7/1975 - 3
...
10)7/ 7/2020 - 2

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ007.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-010-011-013-
014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JLA
SHORT TERM...AR/RSH
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JLA/RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...Apffel/JLA/RSH/Thomas
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