FXUS61 KBUF 061610
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1210 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY, THE 12Z BUF RAOB SHOWED A STRNG SUBSUDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AT ABOUT 825MB. BELOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS WELL
MIXED AND SUGGESTS DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 50S RANGE.
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK VERY GOOD AND NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME. A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO PRODUCING A STRIP OF RAIN FROM WISCONSIN
AND LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN LAKE ERIE BUT JUST
HIGH AND MID CLOUD DECKS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK.
CLEAR EVERYWHERE TONIGHT WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.
THIS WILL SET UP GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE WILL
HAVE TO GO WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE INLAND AREAS FROM SOUTHERN
ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES SOUTHWARD AND ALSO INLAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. FROST ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA. ONLY THE VERY NEARSHORE AREAS WILL LIKE BE PROTECTED FROM
FROST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER OUR
AREA TUESDAY...PROVIDING US WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO +6 TO 8C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE LOWER 60S...NEAR
NORMAL LVLS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES SHLD RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TO LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING 850 TEMPS TO +10 TO +12C.
THIS SHLD RESULT IN TEMPS RISING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, SOME
5 TO 9 DEGREES ABV NORMAL. THE DAY SHLD START OUT MSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LVL
CLOUDINESS IN WESTERN AREAS DURG THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SPREADS EASTWARD...BUT
THE THREAT OF SHWRS SHLD HOLD OFF TIL WED EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND COULD PROVIDE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COASTAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP FRIDAY WHICH MAY PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH KEEP HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY AND KEEP LOW CHC FOR SHWRS FRIDAY NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND KEEP SAT DRY. THIS PERIOD
DOES LOOK TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SUFFICIENT HEIGHT RISES AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHING 850
MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE PLUS 8C FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
EAST-WEST PORTION OF THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY. OTHERWISE NOTHING
BUT VFR IN THE NEAR FUTURE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE THIS EVENING WILL
CLEAR SKIES OUT NICELY AND WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALIZED
MVFR...
&&
.MARINE...
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER UNSTABLE
LAKE/AIR CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE NE WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. WE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THOUGH BECAUSE AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT
AND MIXED DEPTH OVER THE LAKE SHOULD SLACKEN. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DECREASE FURTHER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ006>008-012-019>021-085.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...SAGE/TAN
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP/TMA
AVIATION...TAN
MARINE...TAN
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