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FXUS65 KBYZ 211519
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
919 AM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.UPDATE...

Forecast looks on track this morning. Some patchy mid and high
level clouds still clinging to the MT/WY border will continue to
drift southward and diminish in coverage by afternoon. Patchy
smoke continues to hang around the area this morning with denser
smoke over western zones. Still expecting highs in the 80s with no
rain chances this afternoon. Walsh

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Tue...

Quiet weather pattern for the next couple of days. The upper
level disturbance and low-level jet that brought the shower and
and thunderstorm activity to southern Carter County last evening
and early this morning has moved east of the area taking the
thunderstorm activity into South Dakota. Currently some mid and
high level clouds are moving across our central zones and these
should slowly shift southeast during the course of this morning
leaving a partly to mostly sunny day in store across the forecast
area. There will still be some areas of smoke around this morning
but winds are expected to shift to the north and northeast by
afternoon and this should help to shift any smoke back west and
south out of most of our forecast area.

High pressure ridging will build across the forecast area today
into Tuesday. This will result in dry conditions and slightly
warmer temperatures. Afternoon highs today will be in the lower
80s, with upper 80s to around 90 degrees expected for most areas
on Tuesday. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

Some ensemble uncertainty/model spread begins to show up during
the Thursday into Friday period of the extended which looks like
the most active part of the period. Wednesday will be very warm
and dry with light winds under a high pressure ridge. An upper
low/trough will move through Western Canada Wed. night through
Thursday bringing SW flow to the area, with a low-level jet over
the E. Chances for thunderstorms will increase over much of the
area Thu. afternoon. A cold front pushes through much of the
region Thu. night, with accompanying showers and thunderstorms. It
will be slightly cooler on Thu. with increased cloud
cover/precipitation. Models differed on the position of the
Canadian upper low on Friday, with the GFS positioning it further
N than the ECMWF. Either solution brings a chance of thunderstorms
to the mountains and far E. GFS showed high ML CAPES over the E,
with good BRN values, for possible strong storms Fri. afternoon
and evening. This is something that will need to be watched. Zonal
flow then gives way to upper ridging for the remainder of the
period with dry weather and near normal temperatures. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail over the area today and tonight. Areas of smoke
could create slantwise visibility issues today. Arthur
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 056/089 059/092 062/089 060/083 056/085 056/086
0/K 00/U 00/U 02/T 21/B 10/U 00/U
LVM 084 047/091 050/092 053/087 051/083 047/086 047/087
0/K 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T 20/U 00/U
HDN 086 053/092 055/095 060/092 059/086 055/087 054/088
0/K 00/U 00/U 02/T 21/B 10/U 00/U
MLS 084 054/089 058/093 062/092 063/087 056/086 056/087
0/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 21/B 10/U 00/U
4BQ 084 052/089 056/092 059/090 060/087 055/087 055/087
0/B 00/U 00/U 12/T 22/T 21/U 00/U
BHK 082 049/085 053/088 055/087 059/085 053/083 052/084
1/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 23/T 20/U 10/U
SHR 083 050/089 053/091 056/089 055/084 051/084 050/086
0/K 00/U 01/U 12/T 23/T 30/U 00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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