FXUS65 KBYZ 160303
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
903 PM MDT MON MAR 15 2010
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
MINOR UPDATE TO ZFP THIS EVENING WITH NO UPDATE TO WRKAFP. FORECAST
AREA WAS ON THE NE SIDE OF AN ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE THIS EVENING.
NEW WRF MATCHED UP WELL WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. THE WAVE WAS PRODUCING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MT. FORECAST SKY
GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND SHOWED THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT AND THE GOING FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS
WILL NARROW OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AS HIGH CLOUDS EXIT THE
REGION. THE PATCHY FOG FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY CHANGE TONIGHT WAS TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTIONS A BIT AS WINDS
OVER CENTRAL ZONES WERE MORE S TO SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF COLDER AND UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW
AND TROFFING OVER THE AREA. MAIN MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO WY ON THU...BUT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WITH MODEST
QG FORCING SET TO SLIDE THROUGH LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE SAME TIME...BEST
CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE OVER THE FOOTHILLS...IE NORTHERN SLOPES
PER THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. 700MB
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MINUS TEENS WILL MEAN DENDRITIC LAYER WILL
FALL TO BELOW MTN TOPS...SO COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM
MCLEOD TO NYE AND RED LODGE...AND ALONG THE BIG HORNS AS WELL
THOUGH FORCING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER FURTHER EAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCH OF THIS. OTHERWISE A COUPLE DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON
TAP THU AND FRI AS MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. 850MB
TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE...
FOLLOWED BY A CHILLIER FRI NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH ONSET OF RIDGING AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SAT-MON...THOUGH NW CAN BE PROBLEMATIC FOR
US AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. NONETHELESS GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE KEPT THESE DAYS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR AREA AND HAVE
RAISED TEMPS...GOING WITH NEAR CLIMO SUN/MON. IF CONFIDENCE IN A
RIDGE INCREASES THEN CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WILL
HAVE TO BE RAISED FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST HALF. GFS/EC IN
DECENT AGREEMENT HERE...AND IN FACT EACH SUPPORT A BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE BY TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS TO REDEVELOP AT KBHK LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY ALSO
EXTEND WESTWARD TO AFFECT KMLS OVERNIGHT. THE FOG WILL LIFT BY
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HUMPHREY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/066 040/068 033/046 025/036 020/045 028/051 030/052
00/U 01/B 24/W 52/J 21/B 11/B 12/W
LVM 030/062 033/062 029/044 020/036 017/046 025/051 030/051
00/N 11/B 24/W 53/J 21/B 11/B 12/W
HDN 032/065 034/067 035/048 025/038 019/043 022/048 025/053
00/U 01/B 24/W 52/J 21/B 11/B 12/W
MLS 026/054 031/061 034/045 024/035 019/040 021/043 023/046
00/U 01/B 12/W 22/J 11/B 11/B 12/W
4BQ 029/059 031/064 032/048 024/036 019/040 021/046 022/050
00/U 00/B 14/W 42/J 11/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 023/050 028/056 027/041 022/032 018/035 018/038 021/040
00/U 01/B 12/J 22/J 11/B 11/B 12/J
SHR 031/062 033/067 031/046 026/035 018/041 020/049 021/052
00/U 01/B 25/W 63/J 21/B 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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