FXUS65 KBYZ 250857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
257 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...

A cold front is still expected to cross the area this morning. As
it does scattered showers will spread across the area. The best
chances for rain, and snow in the higher elevations, will be from
Sheridan to Ekalaka where the right rear quad of the jet will be
producing some decent ascent. This combined with PWats over a
half inch will produce between a quarter to three quarters of QPF
across north-central Wyoming and southeastern Montana.

With the snow level being around 6 to 7 thousand feet, the Big
Horn Mountains will see accumulating snowfall. While this setup
is not much of an upslope event for the Big Horns, the ascent
from the frontogenesis and the jet is still producing 6 to 8
inches in the mountains. Given these amounts have gone with an
advisory for the Big Horns from Noon today through 6 AM tomorrow.

Saturday's shortwave will quickly exit the area overnight as more
shortwave riding works into the area for Sunday. This will result
in another warmer and drier day across the area. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Pacific trof will move inland and begin to split on Monday. Though
strongest forcing with southern portion of the trof will move
through the central and southern Rockies, frontogenesis along
passage of mid level trof and potential for energy lifting up from
the south should bring a decent opportunity for some showers late
Monday thru Tuesday. The latest GFS keeps the weak northern split
dominant, and is quite dry, whereas the EC allows for moisture/
energy in the southerly flow ahead of the trof. Will stay the
course with a model consensus for these periods, keeping highest
pops in our southern upslope areas and in our east. Cannot rule
out some wet snow along our foothills with this system, otherwise
lower elevations will see just rain showers.

Wednesday should be dry under flat shortwave ridging, then next
Pacific trof moves inland giving us our next chance of
precipitation Thursday/Friday. This trof will also split, with a
fairly dynamic closed low evolving over the SW CONUS by Friday.
Chances of precipitation in our cwa will depend on the track of
this trof and whether or not we become favored with a period of
upper diffluence and low-mid level upslope flow. Keeping in mind
the tremendous uncertainty, will keep chance/likely pops across
the area, highest in our southern upslope areas from Thursday
night into Friday. The potential exists for wet snowfall along our
southern foothills.

Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the 50s to mid
60s Monday through Thursday. A cooler day with highs in the 40s to
around 50 is possible Friday.




A Pacific system will bring areas of lower elevation rain with
mountain snow today and tonight. Greatest precipitation and
poorest flight conditions will occur along the southern foothills,
including KSHR, and across southeast MT. These areas will see
reductions to MVFR/local IFR. Mountains will become obscured.




Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
BIL 054 035/057 038/061 041/054 036/061 041/059 039/049
4/W 21/B 02/W 45/W 10/B 24/W 54/W
LVM 049 032/053 034/055 032/054 032/059 037/054 033/049
4/W 41/B 25/W 73/W 11/B 36/W 64/W
HDN 055 034/058 034/064 038/055 034/063 037/063 037/050
5/W 21/B 01/B 35/W 20/B 12/W 55/W
MLS 060 040/060 038/065 040/055 036/063 039/062 038/053
3/W 21/B 01/B 26/W 30/B 12/W 33/W
4BQ 059 039/057 035/064 038/053 036/061 038/061 038/051
2/W 71/B 00/B 37/W 40/B 01/B 45/W
BHK 060 039/058 034/062 036/054 035/060 035/060 035/050
2/W 52/W 00/B 27/W 61/B 01/B 23/W
SHR 050 033/053 031/061 036/049 032/060 035/060 037/049
6/W 71/B 01/B 35/W 20/B 02/W 56/W


WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon today to 6 AM MDT
Sunday FOR ZONE 98.


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