FXUS62 KCAE 152207
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
607 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019
High pressure will extend into the area from offshore through
Sunday. The air mass will remain dry overnight, then moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico will slowly increase across the area
through next week. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
isolated early next week then increase in coverage later in the
week. Temperatures will warm to above normal by mid week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure situated offshore will continue to promote
southerly low level flow across the area. Current cumulus
fields over the area will diminish by sunset, creating mostly
clear conditions for the majority of the overnight hours.
Towards morning, may see some low-level scattered clouds
develop before sunrise as moisture slowly increases off the
Atlantic. Winds light and out of the south to southeast.
Overnight lows in the middle 60s.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday the synoptic situation will remain much the same with
southerly flow continuing to slowly increase. The increasing
moisture could bring some early morning clouds, followed by fair
weather cumulus in the afternoon. Pwat values will rise to
almost 2 inches, however models indicate a weak mid-level cap
which will suppress convection. Afternoon high temperatures will
be around 90 and overnight lows will be around 70 Sunday
On Monday there will be stronger instability across the area as
moisture increases. Precipitable water will be near 2 inches in
the southeast Midlands. Subsidence should limit convection
during the day, but storms could develop near the sea breeze
front. Then in the evening a weak shortwave could bring
convection to the north Midlands near the Piedmont trough. The
warming trend will continue with high temperatures into the
lower 90s, and Monday night lows in the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level trough will approach the region on Tuesday. At
the surface the area will remain under southerly flow, and there
will be a better chance of diurnal convection. A weak frontal
boundary will move through the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with a stronger front expected Thursday night. These
features will enhance lift. Continued to forecast mainly
diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms during the period.
Somewhat drier conditions will be possible Friday and Saturday
behind the front. Temperatures will remain near or above normal
through the period.
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the 24-hr TAF
period outside of patchy early morning fog/stratus.
Satellite imagery shows a few cumulus clouds across the area
this afternoon in addition to a few high clouds shifting east of
the area. The primary aviation concern through the period is
possible early morning fog/stratus development given increased
low level moisture in southerly flow with high pressure offshore.
Model soundings indicate a 20 knot low level jet overnight, but
it appears to weaken some toward daybreak. The NAMMOS and HRRR
both support ceiling restrictions Sunday morning at the
terminals. Expect any ceiling restrictions to improve by mid
morning with VFR conditions through the remainder of the day.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Southerly flow will continue
increasing moisture through next week with chances of diurnal
convection and late night/early morning fog/stratus Monday
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