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FXUS62 KCAE 170921
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
421 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move north of the region today and tonight
with a weak disturbance developing along the coast late Sunday
and Sunday night. The disturbance will move away from the region
on Monday with the next weak cold front moving through Tuesday.
High pressure will dominate during the middle of the week with
unsettled weather returning late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure along with dry conditions will dominate the region
today and tonight as the high moves from eastern TN through the
mid Atlantic States. With many locations already in the mid 30s
will keep the frost advisory for the central Midlands through
the CSRA until 8 am. Clear skies and light winds will allow
temperatures this afternoon to climb into the low to mid 60s.
Excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight will allow
temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s for most
locations. With the slightly warmer overnight lows a frost
advisory will not be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move northeast of the region on Sunday with a
weak disturbance developing along the SC Coast late in the day
and Sunday night. Models have strengthened this feature
slightly over the past couple of runs however moisture remains
contained along the coastal plain. Have increased pops slightly
over the far eastern Midlands due to uncertainty in models
however still remain below slight chance through Sunday night.

The disturbance will move northeastward on Monday and Monday
night as the next cold front moves through the TN Valley and
into the Upstate late Monday night. Although there will be
slightly increased clouds on Monday and Monday night do not
expect any rain. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s for
highs Sunday afternoon and mid to upper 60s Monday. Overnight
lows will be in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will move through the region Tuesday and with limited
moisture and weak dynamics do not expect any precip with fropa.
High pressure along with slightly cooler air behind the front
and dry air will occupy the region for Wednesday through
Thursday with some uncertainty late in the period. Remains of
the frontal boundary will be south of the area with strong high
pressure dominating the Great Lakes and much of the eastern
Seaboard. GFS moves the high eastward faster than the ECMWF and
returns moisture to the area late Friday while the ECMWF is
slower to move these features. Have introduced slight chance
pops for Friday and Friday night as models come into better
agreement although some uncertainty and run to run changes
continue. Temperatures through the long term will be near to
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions possible early this morning with patchy fog across
the area.

High pressure across the area through the period. The air mass
is dry but with shallow moisture across the region and strong
radiational cooling this morning, patchy fog expected to
develop with impacts at terminals thru daybreak. The UPS
radiation fog scheme suggests a threat while mos and other
guidance suggest limited impacts. Latest observations support a
fog threat although likely shallow. Brief IFR or LIFR possible
especially at AGS but mainly MVFR conditions expected through
about 13z- 14z. VFR after 14z with light and variable winds with
east/southeast winds favored in the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor to moderate flooding on the Congaree River, Enoree River,
Great Pee Dee River and Wateree River will continue through the
weekend and into next week. Please see river flood products or
the AHPS website at
https:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=cae for
information on river flooding.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ040-063>065-
077.
SC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for SCZ018-022-
025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
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