FXUS62 KCAE 050834
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
334 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH OVER THE REGION MONDAY AS A COLD WEDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK WARM
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT LOCATED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS RAIN
SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSING FURTHER
NORTH WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EXISTS.

AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING RAIN SHOULD BE THIS
MORNING AND THAT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COLD WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP TODAY OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND SURGE SOUTH INTO THE
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW POPS
IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHILE THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH A STRONG INVERSION
NOTED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB...WITH DRY AIR ABOVE
THIS LAYER. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL WEDGE SCENARIO AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING RAIN...BUT DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE BLANKET OF STRATUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AN
DAMPENING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL BE HIGHER...AND WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS HERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY AND
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM AND WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION HELPING TO
DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 60S. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
TO A COOLER MORE SEASONABLE ONE AS THE POLAR VORTEX DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF THOUGH AS THE GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER FLOW COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE LEADS TO A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS IT BACKS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY BRINGS SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN
MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
LOW CLOUDINESS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE MET MOS AND FORECASTED IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING. EXPECT MAINLY STRATUS INSTEAD OF FOG BECAUSE OF
WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

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