FXUS62 KCAE 240619
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
219 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
High pressure will maintain fair weather today. A frontal
boundary will move into the region, and provide a chance of
showers and possible thunderstorms, mainly late Saturday night
and Sunday. Another front will move through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Early this morning: Satellite imagery shows clouds developing
across portions of central and northern GA, along with portions
of the Midlands and Upstate of SC associated with weak isentropic
lift. Bufkit time heights showing another low level jet
overnight which will help keep the boundary layer mixed and
surface winds up. Temperatures by morning expected to remain
above freezing, with most areas in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The chance of frost is low because of some mixing and large
Today: The surface ridge that has been over the area will
begin to slowly weaken and shift slightly east through the day.
This will bring a slight increase in southerly winds through
the late morning into the afternoon, which will bring a
moderation in high temperatures. Some clouds expected through
the morning and early afternoon, but should see more sunshine
later in the afternoon. Afternoon highs should climb back into
the lower to middle 70s.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak isentropic lift and moisture recovery may provide some
stratus, possible fog, late Fri nt/Sat morning. Deep low in the
Midwest will be moving slowly east-northeast Saturday. Moisture
continues to increase Saturday with upper ridge weakening and
shifting southeast...but lift mainly west of the region and
expect any showers to remain west of the region through the
afternoon. Continued warming trend.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Closed upper low, and surface low, to shift NE from the Central
Plains to the Great Lakes, with upper trough axis approaching our
region Sat nt and moving through Sunday. Best upper dynamics to
remain to our north, but chance pops with possible thunderstorms
expected in weakly unstable air mass. Another upper trough/front
appears will move through Tuesday.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.
Weak insentropic lift over the area through the morning will
bring some mid-level clouds into portions of the Midlands and
CSRA. Clouds expected to remain vfr, with strato-cu ceilings
between 5-6 kft. VFR Clouds will remain through the day. This is
supported by the SREF ceiling plots, along with the hrrr. The
fog chance this morning appears limited by boundary layer mixing
and the expected clouds. Winds light and variable overnight,
then becoming more southerly between 5 and 10 knots after 14z
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions may occur
Saturday morning in fog and stratus associated with an onshore
flow. Deeper moisture and a frontal system near the area may
help support scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions Sunday and Monday.
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