FXUS62 KCAE 250654
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
254 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019
A front will be stalled just south of the forecast area through
Monday. The front will become a warm front and may lift northward
and into the area Tuesday and linger Wednesday. Low pressure
tracking northeastward will stay well off the Southeast Coast.
An approaching cold front will move into the area Wednesday night or
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front was stalled south of the CSRA. Cold air damming was
occurring with cool high pressure ridging into the area from the
north. A wedge boundary near the I-20 corridor was producing
scattered showers this morning from central SC into the CSRA. Will
continue slight to low chance pops this morning.
Surface low pressure located off the east coast of Florida is
forecast to track northeast to a position well off the SC coast
tonight. This low is being monitored by the Hurricane Center for
possible development. Some Atlantic moisture from the offshore low
may produce a few showers across the eastern Midlands this
We expect below normal temperatures given widespread cloudiness and
a cool northeast flow. Have favored the cooler guidance
temperatures today with highs ranging from the mid 70s north to the
lower 80s south. Went near guidance consensus tonight for lows in
the mid to upper 60s.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The models show surface high pressure wedging into the forecast
area from the north with the front stalled south of the area
Monday and Monday night. Low pressure is depicted staying well
off the coast. There may be weak h85 warm advection mainly
Monday night. H5 ridging may linger through Monday with moisture
becoming deeper ahead of troughing Monday night. The pattern
supports considerable cloudiness with a chance of showers. The
wedge pattern and weak lift support little instability so we do
not expect thunderstorms. The guidance was consistent with
chance pops. The high temperature guidance is likely too high
because of the wedge pattern Monday.
The models show the front becoming a warm front and lifting into the
forecast area for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A dampening mid-level
shortwave trough is also depicted moving into the region. There
should be increased moisture and instability with a greater shower
and thunderstorm chance. We followed a guidance consensus for the
pop forecast. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF indicate h5 temperatures
relatively high at -5 to -6 C Tuesday. Cloudiness should also help
limit instability. Believe instability will remain weak plus the
models indicate weak shear with h85 wind less than 25 knots. There
is a diminished chance of severe thunderstorms.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF show surface troughing in the region
Wednesday with a approaching cold front. The ECMWF has been
faster moving the front into the region. Both models depict the
front stalling near the coast late in the week. The closeness of
the front supports keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 20 to 30 percent
during the period. The MOS indicates near-normal temperatures.
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front has stalled south of the TAF sites.
High pressure building in from the north with cold air damming
across the area. MVFR/IFR cigs across the area early this
morning. Models have been consistent with MVFR cigs for most of
the daylight hours. Could see VFR cigs late in the day into this
this evening as slightly drier air filters in from the north.
Scattered showers in the vcnty of AGS/DNL this morning,
otherwise rain chance appears low with no significant lift.
Winds will continue northeast around 10 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread IFR or MVFR conditions
may linger during much of the outlook period because of a front
remaining in the region.
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