FXUS62 KCAE 060020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
820 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

A weak upper and surface trough will slowly move through the
region tonight into Saturday night. Cristobal will lift north
through the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. At this time the
forecast from the NHC calls for Cristobal to make landfall late


Early round of convection this afternoon has moved east of the
CWA this evening. Currently affecting the coastal plain this
evening. WV loop and models show a weak s/w to our west this
evening. Models bring this feature eastward overnight and
weaken it into early Saturday as it moves east of the
Midlands/CSRA. Radar this evening shows a line of shra/tsra
along the NC/SC border west of CLT along with a few widely
scattered shra/tsra extending to the sw. Will continue with a
slight chance/low chance for the remainder of the evening hours
with diminishing chances overnight. Current dewpoint
temperatures are in the upper 60s/lower 70s and expect overnight
lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s from nw to se across the

Behind the s/w the models indicate some drier air trying to
filter south/east into the region late tonight and into


Saturday and Saturday night...Northwesterly 500mb flow will
prevail over the forecast area in the wake of the exiting upper
trough off the coast. Drier air will work in from the west as
PWATs fall below 1.5 inches for much of the region. Instability
is forecast to be weak with little to no forcing. Model
soundings also show a cap through much of the day that does
gradually weaken late in the day. Think best chance for any
isolated/widely scattered convection would be late in the
day/early evening hours mainly across the eastern Midlands and
CSRA. Any lingering convection should dissipate by sunset with
rain free conditions expected overnight. Temperatures will be
near normal with highs around 90 to lower 90s and lows in the
lower 70s.

Sunday and Sunday night...Cristobal will be lifting northward
into Louisiana while an upper ridge will build over the
southeastern states with a deepening upper trough just off the
coast. A weak backdoor front will push into the Pee Dee region
and stall which could provide a focus for isolated convection
Sunday afternoon and evening. Will continue to carry low pops
across the eastern half of the forecast area. Temperatures will
continue to be seasonably warm with highs in the lower 90s and
lows in the lower 70s.


The upper ridge extending from the Ohio Valley southeastward
through the forecast area on Monday will maintain and reorient
more northeast to southwest from the northeast states through
the forecast area by Wednesday. Cristobal will lift northward
through the Mississippi Valley on Monday and into the western
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region by Wednesday as it becomes
absorbed into a northern stream positively tilted upper trough.
There remain some differences among the guidance on how much
moisture will be in place early next week though the
southwestern part of the forecast area is most favored for
deeper moisture. Will continue to have higher pops in the
southwestern part of the forecast area early in the week.

Later in the week, moisture will increase from the west as the
upper trough shifts eastward and the upper ridge over the area
weakens and shifts northeast away from our area. Therefore will
show increasing pops later in the week but at this point no
significant weather is expected and no direct impact from
Cristobal during the period. Temperatures will be near normal
through the period with highs in the lower 90s early in the week
and lowering into the mid 80s late in the week with overnight
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


Weak surface trough across western Carolina with ridge to the
southeast offshore. Scattered thunderstorms earlier have pushed
east of the area. Radar trends suggest any showers this evening
will be quite limited. A few showers moving east out of the NC
foothills should remain mainly north of the region. Expect VFR
conditions to dominate with mainly high level convective debris
clouds. There is some potential for some stratus around daybreak
mainly at AGS and DNL, but confidence low and most of the
guidance continues VFR. Winds will be light southwest overnight.
Convection threat appears lower Saturday with deeper moisture
south of the area. Still trough across the region and weak to
moderate instability. Weak short wave trigger possible. Any
convection expected to be after end of taf period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day in
mainly diurnal convection and late night/early morning stratus
and fog.




Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page