FXUS62 KCAE 140314
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1014 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE AS OF 1005 PM: A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY. ISOLD/WDLY SCTD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. WILL LET LAKE WIND ADVY EXPIRE AT 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
ADVY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO LWA CRITERIA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST AS SHORT WAVES CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE SHORT WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT AS MOISTURE THROUGH
THE COLUMN IS LIMITED. WITH THE WINDS REMAINING STRONG AND GUSTY
WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SITUATION WILL SLOWLY CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREVENTS EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THIS
WILL KEEP SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER BE LIMITED ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW FINALLY TRACKS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATING CLOUDS AND SUBSIDING WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVES CROSS THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BUT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES CROSSING WILL EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER DIURNALLY
INDUCED. MOST ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE WILL DIG ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE A CHANCE OF RAIN
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE MOISTURE IS OVERDONE AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM. SATURDAY WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL
COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WITH
THESE SHOWERS...BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS TOO LOW TO FORECAST AT THE
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS SHOW THE COLD POOL SHIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SO THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD FURTHER
DIMINISH. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HEATING AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. MODEL
TIME-HEIGHTS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
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