FXUS62 KCAE 222333
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
733 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018
A ridge of high pressure will shift to our east Sunday through
early next week, while a slow moving front approaches and
stalls, and moisture increases from a low-level flow off the
Atlantic. Another front will move into the region mid to late
week but may stall. These factors will lead to increasing
precipitation chances next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface and upper ridge off the coast will continue to extend
into the forecast area through tonight. A frontal boundary will
gradually move southward into North Carolina. Forecast soundings
indicate shallow low level moisture with mid level capping, so
dry weather will persist. Overnight low temperatures are forecast
near guidance, in the mid to upper 60s. Patchy fog development
will be possible near daybreak Sunday morning given ample low
level moisture and dry air aloft.
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure aloft off the Southeast U.S. coast will gradually
give way to slow moving frontal boundary during this time
period. Onshore flow will provide an increase in low level
moisture and chance of diurnal showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain above normal for late September.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern across the contiguous United States undergoes a
distinct shift during the middle and latter portions of next
week. A deep upper trough drops into the Upper Midwest and then
slowly progresses into northern Great Lakes by next weekend. A
fast moving zonal flow develops from the mid Mississippi River
Valley into the Mid Atlantic States.
A cold front is quite slow to progress across the Carolinas as
the surface front's orientation parallels the flow aloft.
Expect unsettled conditions in the vicinity of the stalled and
then dissipating frontal boundary later next week.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions this evening and early tonight, with ifr/mvfr
restrictions possible in early morning fog/stratus at ags/ogb.
Satellite shows clouds dissipating across the cwa this evening,
with mostly clear skies expected through the night. There will
once again be a potential for early morning fog development
at ags/ogb given low level moisture and dry air aloft. Have
included restrictions at fog prone AGS/OGB from 08-13Z even
though a weak low-level jet may limit development. Through the
day Sunday, moisture will be on the increase as a frontal
boundary slowly moves southward towards the area. With all of
the terminals in the warm sector, dry conditions are expected to
continue on Sunday, with mainly scattered vfr clouds through the
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Light onshore flow will continue
moistening low levels resulting in increasing potential for late
night and early morning stratus and fog along with chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
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