FXUS62 KCAE 261023
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
623 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017
A front will linger near the coast through Tuesday. Deeper
moisture ahead of the front will remain east of the forecast
area. The pressure ridge behind the front will extend through
the region Wednesday with the front farther off the coast.
Diminished relative humidity will be associated with this
pattern. The ridge will be in the Atlantic late in the week
and circulate increased moisture into the forecast area.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This morning's analysis showed dry advection from the north.
Convergence associated with the front near the coast should
remain east of the forecast area. The NAM and GFS MOS and high-
resolution models support a dry forecast. The temperature
guidance was consistent.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models keep the front off the coast Tuesday but depict some
weak surface troughing lingering inland. There will be increased
moisture and instability associated with a mid-level shortwave
trough. The models have been consistent lowering h5 temperatures
to around -12 C. However, moisture should still remain limited
and the models depict just weak instability. Forecasted slight
chance pops mainly in the southeast section closer to deeper
moisture and a little greater convergence ahead of the weak
trough Tuesday afternoon and evening. The thunderstorm chance
should further diminish overnight with the loss of heating and
drying behind the mid-level shortwave trough. The models have
been consistent with dry ridging dominating Wednesday with the
front farther off the coast.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The models show dry ridging dominating through Thursday.
Moisture will be on the increase Friday through the weekend as
the surface ridge shifts farther offshore with a return
southerly flow. A weakness in the upper ridging may help allow
an increased chance of mainly diurnal thunderstorms. The GFS and
ECMWF MOS support chance pops. The MOS indicates near normal
temperatures through the medium-range period.
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Drier air will continue to push into the area from the north
this morning behind a secondary front/trough. Veil of mid and
high level cloudiness will continue streaming across the region
this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR at all TAF sites through
the TAF period as drier air continues to spread across the
area. Skies should become mostly clear by late morning or early
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
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