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FXUS62 KCAE 190747
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
347 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north
through tonight. The ridge will weaken Wednesday. Much of the
moisture associated with low pressure off the Southeast Coast
will stay east of the forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry surface high pressure ridging into the area from the north
will dominate. The models depict the h25 jet shifting farther
eastward and expect high cloudiness will diminish today.
Followed the NAM and GFS MOS for the wind forecast with
northeast wind near 10 mph today and light tonight. The Bufkit
momentum transfer tool suggests gusts around 16 mph today.
Leaned toward the lower temperature guidance based on recent
verification trends. Expect lows mainly in the lower 30s north,
and middle 30s central and south. These temperatures support a
freeze warning in the north. There should be period of light
wind so expect much of the remaining area will also have frost
prompting a frost advisory for central and south sections.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low pressure over the Central Plains will open up as it
moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Surface
high pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will shift eastward
and a coastal low will develop along the SC coast. The upper
trough will push off the coast on Thursday and the coastal low
will move northward along the eastern seaboard. The best chance
for any rainfall will be Wednesday afternoon and night in the
northeastern portion of the area where moisture is deepest. QPF
should be light. By 12Z Thursday morning, both the NAM and GFS
shift most of the moisture northeastward of the area, so expect
dry conditions on Thursday as surface high pressure builds back
into the region from the west. Below normal temperatures are
forecast Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s north to middle
60s south. Lows Wednesday night are forecast in the upper 30s to
near 40. Temperatures will rebound some on Thursday with highs
near normal, in the middle to upper 60s. Lows Thursday night in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The 00Z GFS and ECMWF are in relatively good agreement through
the weekend with some differences showing up with the next
system early next week. Upper shortwave ridging will build over
the region for the weekend with a warming trend expected. Dry
conditions will prevail through Sunday with precipitable water
values under half an inch. Unsettled conditions will return
early next week as moisture returns to the area. Surface high
pressure will be east of the area on Monday with low pressure
over the Plains approaching the region from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions during the 24-hour TAF period.

Dry surface high pressure ridging into the area from the north
will dominate and bring VFR conditions. Followed the NAM and
GFS MOS for the wind forecast with northeast wind near 8 knots
today and light tonight. The Bufkit momentum transfer tool
suggests gusts around 15 knots today. The air mass should
remain too dry for fog.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture associated with low
pressure off the Southeast Coast may result in restrictions
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The low will lift farther
northeast of the area Thursday and dry high pressure will likely
dominate over the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for GAZ040-
063>065-077.
SC...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for SCZ018-025-
027>031-035>038-041.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for SCZ015-016-
020>022-026.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
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