FXUS61 KCAR 121957
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
257 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH LOWS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN GRIDS...SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLAGASH...TEENS
ELSEWHERE IN NORTH...INCREASING TO LOW 20S DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL
INCRS SAT WITH LOW PRES TO SOUTH. BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM WAS DEW
PTS. GEMS LOOKED THE BEST OVERALL...BUT USED MIXED LAYER FROM H850
TO HELP COMPUTE DEW PTS SAT AFTERNOON AND END UP BLO GUIDANCE.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WRONG ON DEW POINTS TODAY AND NOT SURE WHY IT IS
GOING TO BE MUCH MORE ACCURATE TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS REMAIN IN GUD AGREEMENT AND CONT TO TAKE SYSTEM OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES LATE SAT SLOWLY EWRD TO A POSN S OF CAPE COD BY LATE
SUN THEN TO A POSN WELL SSE OF NS BY LATE MON. MDL RH AND QPF FIELDS
CONT TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO FAR SRN AREAS LATER SUN THEN PULL
THIS MOISTURE SE OF THE AREA BY MON AM. WILL CONT TO ADVERTISE
HGHST POPS FAR SRN AREAS LATER SUN INTO ERLY MON W/ LIKELY POPS
INTO COASTAL AREAS AND CHC POPS N OF THIS. ALL INDICATIONS ATTM THAT
THIS WILL JUST BE A GLANCING BLOW W/ GENERALLY LGT QPF AMOUNTS.
SYSTEM GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY ON MON AS HGH PRES BEGINS TO REBUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A GENERALLY QUIET WX PTRN FCST TO CONT THRU THE XTND PD AS HGH
PRES RDG BUILDS SEWRD INTO THE AREA. THIS RDG FCST TO FLATTEN SOME
AS LOW PRES PASSING E OF THE STATE DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THRU
THE REGION ON WED BUT HEIGHTS PROGGED TO REBUILD ACROSS THE STATE ON
THU AND APPEARS THE NXT FRONT/POTENTIAL WX SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM EAST ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST
LATER IN PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD THO COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR LATER SUN INTO ERLY MON ACROSS THE S AS LOW PRES PASSING S OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE CLOSE ENUF TO BRING SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE
INTO OUR SRN AREAS...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS INCRS LATER SAT IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN MID ATLANTIC. SCA CRITERIA LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING
SAT AM...BEFORE INCREASING TO GALE NEXT PERIOD.
SHORT TERM; WILL CONT THE GLW WTCH FOR SUN AND SUN NGT AS LATEST
WND GUIDANCE CONTS TO SUPPORT PSBL GLW CONDS ON THE WATERS BY ERLY
SUN AS LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. DRY FINE
FUELS, LOW RH IN 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND INCREASING WINDS IN
ZONES 29...30...15...16 AND 17 PRESENT THE RISK OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A WINDOW OF AROUND 3 HOURS. HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
&&
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/KHW
FIRE WEATHER...MWALKER
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