FXUS61 KCAR 202225
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
625 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017
High pressure will build over the area tonight and Saturday then
move east of the region Sunday into Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6:25 PM Update...Satellite pictures show a clear sky across the
CWA early this evening with just a few clouds in a few spots
across far northern Maine. The gusty wind will quickly drop off
early this evening with the loss of daytime heating and strong
low level mixing, however, with the surface high axis still
across western PA it will still remain breezy at times through
the evening, especially across the more exposed terrain. Only
minor tweaks to the temps, dew points, and wind to bring these
parameters in line with the current and expected conditons.
Dry weather will continue for the first half of the weekend
as high pressure builds across the region. Gusty winds will
abate this evening and this combined with mostly clear skies
should allow for fairly decent radiational cooling. Lows will
range from the lower 30s in the north to around 40 Downeast.
Sunny skies and lighter winds are expected on Saturday, with
highs ranging from the mid 50s north to the lower and mid 60s
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure cresting over the area will bring a dry and tranquil
night Saturday night. The high will move east of the region on
Sunday allowing dry weather to continue along with a mild return
flow of air from the south. Some moisture rounding the top of the
upper level ridge will bring partial cloudiness to the area.
However, dry weather is expected to persist. Upper level ridging
will remain across the area on Monday as high pressure
continues to move away to the east. This will bring a
continuation of dry weather with even warmer afternoon high
temperatures as a warm return flow continues out of the south
under a mostly sunny sky.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain anchored to the east on Tuesday as a
strong trough of low pressure deepens in the Midwest. The gradient
between the high to our east and the trough digging to our west will
bring increasing south winds Tuesday as warm and increasingly humid
air remains over the region. A frontal boundary ahead of the
Midwestern trough will press into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday bringing increasing winds and a good chance of showers.
The front will push east and stall nearby to our east Wednesday
night into Thursday. Our focus at the end of the week will be on a
wave of low pressure developing off the Southeast coast in
association with the upper trough digging east. The low will develop
and lift north, well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast. If high
pressure is able to remain strong and anchored to our east, and the
trough digs deeply along the east coast possibly becoming
negatively tilted, the developing low may lift north backing to
the west a bit and bringing rain to our area Thursday night into
Friday. The ECMWF and GFS have been favoring this solution.
However, the latest GFS is further east with the developing low
making it a close call here for our area. The low would then
lift away through the Maritimes on Saturday as ridging returns.
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Sunday as
high pressure builds across New England.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Saturday night through
Monday as high pressure moves to our east. There is a chance
lower clouds will move in from the south overnight Monday night
lowering conditions to IFR from south to north. IFR to MVFR
conditions are likely on Tuesday in variable low clouds.
NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed through Saturday as high
pressure builds across the waters. Winds will be 10-20 kt through
much of tonight then wane through the early morning hours on
Saturday. With offshore flow, seas will subside through the period
and remain below 5 feet.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA through
Monday as high pressure moves to our east. Winds will increase
from the south Monday night into Tuesday likely resulting in
building seas and a SCA. Winds could approach gale Tuesday
night or Wednesday as seas continue to build in strong southerly
winds west of the Atlantic high and east of the approaching
Winds will slowly subside tonight as daytime heating is lost and
mixing lessens. Winds will not be as gusty on Saturday as high
pressure builds across the region and then moves east on
Sunday. As a result relative humidity will gradually increase
through the weekend; minimum RH will be in the 50-60% range by
Sunday afternoon. However, no rain is expected until the middle
of next week. Showers are possible Tuesday, but a Tuesday night
and Wednesday are the most likely periods to see a wetting
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