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FXUS61 KCAR 261443
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1043 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach northwest Maine later this afternoon
then cross the region through the early morning hours. High
pressure will build across the region Thursday into Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
A cold front will begin to approach northwest Maine late this
afternoon. Abundant moisture in advance of the front will
support mostly cloudy skies, fog, light rain and patchy drizzle
across the forecast area through much of the afternoon. Rain
chances will begin to increase across northern areas later this
afternoon in advance of the approaching cold front. Scattered
thunderstorms could also begin to approach northwest areas late,
with the possibility of gusty winds. High temperatures will
range from the upper 60s to around 70 across much of the
forecast area, with mid to upper 60s along the Downeast coast.
Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along
with afternoon temperatures, cloud cover and rain chances.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure to our east combined with low pressure lifting to
our northwest will bring a warm and very moist southerly wind
today with showers and drizzle. The air will become very humid
with dew points surging into the mid 60s across the area by
midday. Most of the rain will be spotty until a strong cold
front approaches this evening which will bring a band of heavier
rain into the area ahead of it. Forecast soundings show some
strong shear in the low levels which, combined with some weak
cape, could result in a few storms with organized circulation.
An isolated tornado is possible, mainly in central and western
areas where there will be more cape. Precipitable water will be
up to 1.8 inches ahead of the front so heavy downpours will be
possible as the front pushes through. However, storms should be
fast moving. Will keep mention of gusty winds with the storms
this evening. The front will quickly push through overnight
followed by clearing pressing in from the northwest.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front is expected to be well east of the region by
Thursday morning w/high pres building in from the sw. Temps
will be cooler by seasonal for late September w/a decent amount
of sunshine. Much cooler Thursday night w/mostly clear skies and
light winds. This will lead to temps dropping into the
mid/upper 30s across portions of the n and w while most of the
region will see low to mid 40s for overnight lows.

Friday will feature sunshine to start out the day as high pres
lifts into Labrador. An area of low pres is shown by the model
guidance to lift up from the Mid Atlc region and move across the
Gulf of Maine later Friday into Friday night. Also, a cold front
will be apchg from the CWA from the w. There will be increasing
clouds but there is some discrepancy on the potential for some
light rain to makes its way into the Downeast region as the low
moves toward the Gulf of Maine. The Canadian Global shows this
potential while the GFS brings a band of light rain toward the
coast, but washes it out as it tries to advance northward. The
00z run of the ECMWF keeps this light rain off the coast keeping
the entire CWA dry. Decided to keep the day dry for Friday and
lean w/milder daytime temps as readings climb into the mid/upper
60s.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front is forecast to apch the state from Quebec Friday
night and move across the region on Saturday. As mentioned
above, brought increasing clouds and increased pops to 30-40%
for the northern 1/2 of the CWA for showers. All the long range
guidance including the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian Global line up
well w/some shower activity w/the cold fropa. Rainfall amounts
look to be less than 0.10". It will be much cooler come Saturday
night into Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to
drop into the 30s for just about the entire CWA and daytime
temps on Sunday are forecast to be in the 50s n and w to around
60 for central and downeast areas.

It appears that this cooler airmass will hang on across the
region right into early next week as high pres builds across the
state w/daytime temps in the 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows
in the 30s and 40s. The next chance for rain looks like it could
be later Tuesday. Attm, decided to keep rainfall chances at 40%.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR, with local VLIFR, conditions are expected
across the region today through early tonight with low clouds,
fog along with rain and patchy drizzle. Thunderstorms with gusty
winds are expected later this afternoon though the early
morning hours in advance of a cold front crossing the region.
Low level wind shear will also be a concern this afternoon into
tonight in advance of the cold front. Conditions will improve
to VFR levels late tonight in the wake of the cold front.

SHORT TERM: VFR for Thursday into Saturday. The exception to
this will be the MVFR/IFR cigs that are possible later Friday
night into Saturday for KBGR and KBHB as a s flow sets up. The
northern terminals could see a period of MVFR Saturday w/the
cold frontal passage.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will increase this afternoon through early
tonight in advance of a cold front. A Gale Warning remains in
effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the
intracoastal waters, through midnight. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect for the intracoastal waters. Visibilities will be
reduced in rain and fog today into tonight, with thunderstorms
also possible early tonight. Conditions will improve in the
wake of the cold front late tonight.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions early Thursday especially for the
seas as wave heights are expected to be up around 6 ft or so.
Conditions are expected to the improve during the day on
Thursday w/a nw wind and speeds dropping off. The seas will
respond accordingly subsiding back to 4-5 ft by the afternoon.
Conditions look to remain below SCA thresholds into Sunday
w/5-10 kt winds and seas 3-4 ft at best.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ052.
Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Norcross/Hewitt
Marine...Norcross/Hewitt
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