FXUS61 KCAR 060717
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
317 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE LATER
TONIGHT BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO DOWNEAST MAINE SUNDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY IN ADVANCE
OF HANNA. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ORIENTED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A REGION OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND COMBINED
WITH DEEP SLUG OF MOISTURE IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BUT THE REMNANTS OF HANNA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS VERY CONSISTENT WITH BULK OF RAIN
TO FALL OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
NOONTIME SUNDAY. MODEL QPF STILL INDICATING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER DOWNEAST TAPERING TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
VALLEY. WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT, REMNANTS OF HANNA WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
REMNANTS OF HANNA PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SUN... A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS PSBL FAR ERN/NERN SECTIONS SUN EVE...OTHRWS XPCT
IMPROVING CONDS AS WEAK RDG OF HGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THRU MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK RDG OF HGH PRES XPCTD TO SHIFT E OF THE FA MON NGT W/ A
HEALTHY COLD FRONT THEN XPCTD TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE
FA LATER TUE. COOL CANADIAN HGH PRES W/ MAINLY DRY CONDS XPCTD TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER TUE NGT AND REMAIN THRU THU W/ ANOTHER
FRONT XPCTD TO APPROACH THE FA ON FRI. LOADED GMOS W/ ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE...
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMBINATION OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FROM NOW THROUGH NOONTIME
SUNDAY FOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND THE REMNANTS OF HANNA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH SOME MVFR CEILING IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND
ANY SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
ANY MVFR CONDS LATER SUN SPCLY NRN TAF SITES SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
NWRLY FLOW OF DRIER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. VFR CONDS
XPCTD MON INTO TUE THEN A ROUND OF MVFR/IFR PSBL W/ AN ACTIVE
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER TUE. VFR CONDS XPCTD TO RETURN AGAIN LATER
TUE NGT AND PERSIST THRU WED AS NW FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT S YIELDS ANOTHER
ROUND OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: USED THE TCM TOOL WITH 30% REDUCTION FOR WINDS WITH
THE REMNANTS OF HANNA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS REACH
GALE FORCE AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING WITH THIS
PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
LATE SUN FROM THE PASSING OF THE REMNANTS OF HANNA ACROSS THE
WATERS EARLIER SUN BUT SHOULD DCRS TO BLO SCA BY MON AM AS A WEAK
RDG OF HGH PRES BUILD OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF HANNA
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MAINE WITH
HEAVY RAIN FOR MOST OF DOWNEAST MAINE. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 9 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 2
TO 4 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES. EVEN THOUGH FFG IS BETWEEN 3
AND 5 INCHES FOR A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD HEAVY RAIN IN SUCH SHORT
ORDER MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS SO WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT
FOR DOWNEAST ZONES.
ALSO, COMBINATION OF OF HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS MAY CAUSE SOME CONCERNS FOR
SPLASH OVER ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER/KHW
HYDROLOGY...FOSTER
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