FXUS61 KCAR 271640

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1240 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Weakening low pressure off the New Jersey coast will slowly
drift east...northeast into the open north Atlantic today. A
cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon...followed by
a secondary cold front on Saturday afternoon.

1240 pm update...Low clouds and fog under the subsidence
inversion will affect the entire forecast area through Friday
afternoon. There are a few places benefitting from downslope
drying with a little sunshine and warmer temperatures. Have made
slight adjustments to account for these effects. Moisture
continues to stream northward from the Gulf of Maine and will
squeeze out some light rain and drizzle at times. Temperatures
will remain mild with high humidity and not too much diurnal
variation. The coast will be the cool spot with the onshore
flow. Using 12Z guidance, reviewed the instability aloft with
the cold front tomorrow and am not inclined to include mention
of showers or isolated thunder as dynamics weaken significantly
from the current situation in Ontario. The dominant condition
will remain the low level moisture/stability.

previous discussion
An upper level ridge will build across the region today while
an upper low moves moves east of Cape Cod into the open
Atlantic. A moist low level air mass will remain in place across
the region today as a light south to southeast flow persists
around high pressure to our east and low pressure well to our
west. Expect cloudy skies today along with patchy fog and
scattered showers. High temperatures today should climb to near
the 60 degree mark in most places. Expect continued cloudy skies
tonight as moist southerly flow continues in advance of a weak
cold front approaching from the west. Areas of fog and drizzle
will once again be possible tonight, especially across downeast
areas. Lows tonight will not fall all that much with abundant
low level moisture in place. Lows will generally range be in the
lower 50s across the region.

Models cont to be in good agreement in showing a weakening cold
front apchg the region from QB prov Fri morn as a lead s/wv alf
tops the mean upper ridge ovr New Eng. Shwrs will cross the
region W to E from midday Fri into Fri aftn just ahead of the
front with just enough SB/MU CAPE to mention a chc of thunder
with likely PoPs as hi temps reach the lower to mid 60s at low
trrn lctns N of the immediate coast.

Skies should at least partially clr behind this system by late
Fri eve as sfc winds become more downslope wrly component. Aft
slightly cooler ovrngt lows, another s/wv from the Great Lks
will bring more cldnss to the region Sat morn and another chc
of shwrs by Sat aftn as a secondary cold front from Cntrl Can
apchs the region. This front will cross the region Sat eve
bringing sig cooler and drier air aft one last day of 60 deg+
and even near 70 deg hi temps ovr interior Downeast areas.

Fair, breezy, cool, and drier conditions late Sat ngt will cont
thru Sun morn with winds becoming lgt and vrbl Sun aftn as the
sfc pres ridge crosses the region.

Longer range models cont to be in good agreement regarding
increasing cldnss Sun ngt ahead of the next sfc low pres system
and s/wv alf apchg from the Great Lks. Pds of rnfl will then
advc into the region on Mon and cont thru Tue in a low lvl cool
air damming scenario as a warm occluded front apchs then
crosses the region late Tue. Following the passage of the
front, rn will taper to sct shwrs Tue ngt and cont spcly across
the N hlf of the region on Wed. Temps will overall be cooler
during this pd then this weekend.

NEAR TERM: Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions will persist through
tonight with low ceilings and areas of fog/drizzle expected.
There is the potential for ceilings to lift to lower end MVFR
for a bit this afternoon before then falling to LIFR/IFR once
again tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Low IFR/IFR clg/vsbys with fog and patchy dz
Fri morn will improve to MVFR clgs/ocnl vsbys with shwrs Fri
aftn...then improving to VFR by Fri ngt. VFR conditions will
cont Sat thru Sun ngt with brief MVFR clgs/vsbys with any shwrs
on Sat. The next chc of of MVFR/IFR clgs/vsbys with rn will be
on Mon with another round of general rnfl.

NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory for seas remains in place
through tonight. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 nm in fog
through tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA seas will be the main concern for spcly
the outer MZs thru most of these ptns of the fcst. Went with
about 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts, with the
guidance beginning to show it's high warm seasonal bias.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Friday
for ANZ050-051.

Near Term...Duda/MCW
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
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