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FXUS61 KCAR 240553
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
153 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to move east of the region overnight.
A warm front will cross the region Friday followed by a cold
front Friday night. High pressure will build down from the
northwest Saturday into Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...
Cloud cover will increase across the region overnight in
advance of an approaching warm front. Overnight low temperatures
will generally range from around 5 below zero to around 5 above
north, to 5 to 10 interior Downeast with around 10 to 15 along
the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for
current conditions along with overnight temperatures and cloud
cover.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure will slide eastward well to our north, dragging a
cold front/surface trough through the Great Lakes on Friday and
into the Northeast late in the day. This will bring another
round of precipitation to our area, mainly in the afternoon and
evening hours. Although this may start out as snow, temperatures
will warm into the lower and mid 30s by afternoon, so expect
many central and Downeast locations will end up seeing a
rain/snow mix or just plain rain for the bulk of the event,
mainly along and south of a Danforth to Millinocket to Dover-
Foxcroft line. This is a fast-moving system, so don't expect
much in the way of any snow accumulation, even in those areas
that remain cold enough for all snow. Most spots will see an
inch or less, with some amounts up to 2 inches possible in the
higher terrain of the North Woods.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will push across the state Friday evening with some
light rain or snow showers still possible, mainly Downeast, during
the evening as the front pushes through. Northern areas will begin
clearing overnight. A large high pressure system will then begin
building down from central Canada on Saturday bringing a mostly
sunny and seasonable day across the north with partial clearing
Downeast. This will be followed by a mostly clear and cold night
Saturday night. The high will be ridging over the area on Sunday as
northern areas remain partly to mostly sunny. Some clouds will start
to increase Downeast as a warm front begins to move in from a large
low pressure system approaching form the Great Lakes.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will approach Sunday night into Monday as clouds
increase from southwest to northeast. Some snow may begin to spread
into southeastern areas overnight Sunday night then continue on
Monday with snow possibly reaching the north late Monday. The snow
may taper off or decrease in intensity Monday night as an initial
wave of low pressure slides off to the east. A larger low will then
approach late Tuesday into Tuesday night spreading snow back across
the area which may change to rain Downeast. Snow north and rain
Downeast are then likely Wednesday as one low lifts north across
Canada and a secondary forms south of the coast and pushes offshore.
The system should consolidate and lift northeast through the
Maritimes on Thursday as drier air returns behind the low.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region
overnight through early Friday. Clouds will lower through the
day on Friday as precipitation associated with an approaching
cold front moves into the region. While light snow showers will
be possible at all sites by late morning, KBHB and KBGR will
transition to all rain by 18z while northern locations remain
all snow. Conditions will lower to MVFR at all terminals around
18z and remain so through the rest of the day. The northern
sites will likely drop to IFR occasionally in light snow.

SHORT TERM: IFR conditions are likely Friday evening.
Conditions should then improve to MVFR then VFR from north to
south late Friday night into Saturday morning. VFR conditions
are expected across the area Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Conditions should lower to MVFR or IFR Downeast Sunday night
then be IFR across the area on Monday in low clouds and some
snow.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels overnight through early Friday. Small craft
advisory level conditions are then expected to develop Friday
afternoon. Light freezing spray will occur overnight.
Visibilities will be reduced in rain/snow showers Friday
afternoon.

SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed Friday evening for
southwesterly winds gusting up to 25kt. Winds should be below
SCA late Friday night through Saturday then may reach SCA again
Saturday evening in gusts up to 25kt. Winds should be below SCA
Sunday into morning as high pressure crest over the area. Winds
may increase to SCA Monday afternoon into Monday night ahead of
approaching low pressure.
&&

.CLIMATE...
The high temperature this afternoon of 21F at Caribou, ties with
2008 for the lowest high temperature ever observed at Caribou on
March 23rd.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/Hastings
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Norcross/Hastings/Bloomer
Marine...Norcross/Bloomer
Climate...CB
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