FXUS61 KCAR 242253
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
653 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018
A warm front will lift across the area tonight and stall over the
north on Friday. The front will push south across the region as a
cold front Friday night. High pressure will build to our north on
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 PM Update: Chgs this update include fcst hrly and min/max
temps thru Fri as well as hrly dwpts and fcst winds most of
which was to show more trrn influences for our FA.
Orgnl Disc: A warm front lifting across the area tonight will
bring a mostly cloudy sky over the north with partial cloudiness
expected Downeast. A few showers are possible over the far
north overnight as the front stalls and some moisture streams
down along the front. High pressure to the south combined with a
weak low dropping southeast through Quebec will then funnel in
much warmer and more humid air across the region on Friday. Our
focus then turns to the potential for some thunderstorms along
and just south of the frontal boundary during the midday and
afternoon Friday. Capes on the NAM are up to 700 J/Kg across
northern and central areas with the GFS capes around half of
that. A small low sliding southeast through Quebec and into the
Maritimes Friday afternoon will begin to pull the front south as
a cold front late Friday afternoon. Convergence along this
front will likely develop some thunderstorms across northern and
central areas Friday afternoon. Winds will be strong aloft so
gusty winds will be possible with any of these storms. Will keep
gusty winds and small hail wording in the forecast. Friday will
be warm with highs from the low 70s north to upper 80s in some
interior Downeast locations.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will track southward across the area Friday
night. The risk of damaging convective winds and hail continues
until midnight as an inverted V structure may persist into the
evening. Thunderstorms may be possible later in the night if an
upper level shortwave trough materializes as advertised by
GEMS. The most notable feature besides the thunderstorm risk
will be a warm and humid night...by northern Maine standards.
Temperatures will remain near 70F at Bangor until late in the
night with dew points near 60F. Even areas close to the coast
won't receive the usual cooling sea breeze. Cooler air will
arrive in northern Aroostook after midnight with lows dropping
to the 40s in the Saint John Valley by daybreak Saturday
morning. The cold front will exit the coast on Saturday morning
with a few showers and skies will be clearing by afternoon on
the coast. A large dome of high pressure will provide a decent
day for the area with sunny skies north all day and highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Humidity will drop off considerably on
Saturday. Offshore winds mean lower 70s right to the
coastline...much cooler than Friday, but warmer than the rest of
the holiday weekend. The high builds over the entire area
Saturday night with good radiational cooling in the north and
lows in the 30s. Some high clouds further south will limit lows
to the 40s. The high continues over the area on Sunday with a
trend towards increasing high clouds over cooler air under an
inversion. Temperatures along the coast will nosedive with an
onshore flow limiting Sunday's highs to the 50s while northern
Aroostook will benefit from warming south winds and highs in the
mid to upper 60s. Have reduced pops for Sunday as the high
looks stronger with very dry air at the surface.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high hangs on Sunday night into Monday at the surface with
the cold wedge at the surface under increasing high clouds. With
the increased clouds, dropped highs towards 60F for most the
area on Monday with 50s on the coast. Have some concerns that it
could be even cooler. Did bump up pops gradually Sunday night
into Monday to chance as an upper trough approaches and the risk
of some overrunning warm frontal precip increases. Expect fog
and low clouds to finally arrive on the coast later Monday into
Monday night. A cold front on Monday night further increases
pops and elevated instability brings the chance of
thunderstorms. The cold front exits the area Tuesday morning and
a decent stretch of weather follows with increasing
temperatures each day Tuesday into Thursday. Strong gusty winds
are a threat on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures on Thursday
may be even warmer than advertised with a building upper level
ridge and powerful subsidence accompanied by warm SW winds.
Offshore winds will ensure warmer temps on the coast Tuesday
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight into Friday
morning across the north although some far northern places may
briefly drop to MVFR late tonight. Some patchy low clouds may
lower conditions to IFR along the coast at times overnight as
warmer air moves in from the southwest. Briefly gusty
thunderstorms on Friday may lower conditions to IFR at times
during the midday and afternoon, especially over central and
northern areas. Downeast will be VFR most of the day with a warm
SHORT TERM: Thunderstorms are possible with a cold front Friday
night with tempo IFR vis. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
anticipated across the area until Monday when MVFR cigs arrive
into the area from the southwest. IFR conditions are likely with
fog and stratus on Monday night. VFR returns during Tuesday with
very gusty NW winds.
NEAR TERM: A SCA will be up late tonight through Friday for
westerly winds gusting up to 25 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt are
possible over the intracoastal waters. Warmer and more humid
air moving in from the southwest may produce some mist over the
waters late tonight through Friday.
SHORT TERM: The SCA will wind down Friday evening. At this
point, not expecting thunderstorms with a cold front crossing
early Saturday morning, but will have to keep an eye out for
this possibility. Behind the cold front, there's nothing
significant expected until fog arrives ahead of a cold front
Monday afternoon and lingers into early Tuesday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday
night for ANZ050>052.
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