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FXUS61 KCAR 060230 CCA
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly push south through the state Saturday.
Canadian high pressure then builds for the remainder of the
weekend into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9:16 pm update: A mild evening across the FA. Low clouds have
moved onshore across parts of the coast. Area radar are now
pretty quite with storms well to our east and add'l showers with
some embedded thunder to the north of NY State in southern
Quebec. A few showers may work into western areas very late
tonight with a shower or thunderstorm possible offshore due to
some elevated instability. No significant changes from the last
update.

Previous discussion:
A mainly dry and mild night is expected with lows in the 50s to
near 60. One exception will be over the waters, where MUCAPE
around 500 to 1,000 j/kg and synoptic lift within the right
entrance region of a departing 500mb jet streak will lead to the
chance of thunderstorms. While not shown in the grids
currently, some of this activity may impact the coast as well
and will need to be monitored. With warm, moist air traversing
the cool waters and moving inland, fog is expected over the
waters and across coastal/Downeast Maine as well.

Low pressure will move across Quebec and towards the forecast
area by Saturday morning along with an upper level trough. There
is now better agreement with the timing of the cold frontal
passage, placing it across the Central Highlands by late
Saturday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
mainly across northern areas during the morning, transitioning
to the southern half of the forecast area by mid day onward. A
few storms may be strong to possibly severe, with hail and gusty
winds the primary threats. The greatest threat will be across
Central and Downeast areas ahead of the front. With ample shear
in place for storm organization, storm modes will be primarily
line segments and multi-cell clusters. Enhanced wording for
small hail and gusty winds was kept in the grids, along with
numerous thunderstorms. Given the high lightning risk, people
partaking in outdoor activities should be sky aware and not
stray too far from shelters safe from lightning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper low to our n is forecast to move to the e into Sunday
w/its trof axis sliding to the ese. Decided to keep 30-40% for
showers for Saturday night as the axis still remains to the w
and some convergence remains, especially across the northern and
eastern areas. Further s, less convergence and therefore less
precip coverage. Colder air will continue to move in across the
area w/temps by Sunday morning in the upper 40s to lower 50s
thanks to a good deal of clouds. The 12z ECMWF/GFS and NAM are
lining up pretty well w/this setup. Unsettled for Sunday w/some
sunshine expected, but w/the sun will come the threat for some
showers w/the cold air aloft. The GFS sounding profiles support
moisture up through 750 mbs. Best convergence seems to situated
along the eastern areas. Therefore, decided to keep 20-30% for
showers in the aforementioned areas. An inverted v below 850
mbs showing up in the soundings would lend support for some
higher wind gusts. Decided to lean in this direction and
increase the the winds for Sunday. Daytime temps will be well
below normal barely getting into the lower 60s the n and w while
central and downeast areas see mid/upper 60s.

The upper trof axis looks like it finally moves off the e by Sunday
night w/some partial clearing taking place. It will be a chilly
night w/temps dropping into the upper 30s back into Allagash and NW
Woods while the rest of the region sees low/mid 40s. High pres is
expected to build into the region on Monday w/less wind and a bit
warmer, but still well below normal for June.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Temperatures look like they will slowly rebound by the
right into late week. High pres builds offshore Mon night into
Tuesday. A subtropical ridge builds across the northeast into
the middle part of next week. There is potential that there
could be high temps hitting 80F by mid week right into late
week. There is a disturbance shown by the long range guidance of
to try to cut into the upper ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The ECMWF is the most aggressive w/the 1st disturbance on
Tuesday night into early Wednesday w/that disturbance delivering
some light rainfall. The GFS keeps the precip to the n and w of
the state. Attm, decided to lean w/a drier forecast for this
period.

The long range guidance does show signs of the upper ridge
breaking down as the remnants of the Tropical system Cristobal
begins to lift up and move into the NE US by the end of forecast
period. There is also a system that the long range guidance
hints at a disturbance moves westward from the western Atlc
toward the eastern seaboard. For now, used a consensus apch and
went w/20-30% for showers by the end of the forecast period.
Temps are expected to climb back to near normal by mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at the northern Tafs sites from KPQI overnight
with conditions to lower to IFR Saturday in low clouds, showers,
and possible thunderstorms. Conditions will likely lower to IFR
at KHUL toward daybreak. KBHB has lowered to LIFR and will
likely improve to VFR by mid morning Sat. KBGR will see VFR
late this evening with conditions to lower IFR overnight with
gradual improvement to VFR by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorms
Sat afternoon will likely contain erratic wind gusts and
possibly some small hail.

SHORT TERM:
Sat night-Sun...MVFR becoming VFR by Sun morning, especially for
the northern terminals. MVFR cigs could hang on over northern
terminals into Sun with some showers. NW 10-15kts w/higher gusts
in the afternoon.

Sun night-Wed...Looks like VFR. N 5-10kts becoming light SW
late Mon night. Light SSW winds less than 10 kts right into Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory will continue across the outer
waters through Saturday evening due to a long period southerly
swell of 3 to 6 feet. Areas of fog are expected tonight into
tomorrow morning along with the possibility of rain and
thunderstorms, mainly after midnight.

SHORT TERM: Seas will stay up around 5 ft over the outer zones
in s swell thru Sun morning. Seas are expected to drop off later
Sun to 3-4 ft and hold there right into mid week next week. NNW
Winds 10-15 kts Sat night into Sun. Some higher gusts are
possible into the lower 20s during this period.

NNW winds will be dropping off to around 10 kts Sun night and
look like they will hold right into Mon.

Tue into Wed will feature winds shifting to the S and
increasing to 15 kt by Wed.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Another high astronomical tide is expected late this
evening (11:16 PM). A long period S swell of 4 to 6 feet may
cause some minor overwash around the time of high tide at prone
areas. No significant storm surge is expected to enhance the
tide tonight. A coastal hazard message was issued for the high
tide late this evening along the Washington County coast.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/MStrauser
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...CB/MStrauser/Hewitt
Marine...CB/MStrauser/Hewitt
Tides/Coastal Flooding...CB
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