FXUS61 KCAR 151850
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
250 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019
A cold front will cross the region later tonight and stall just
south of the coast on Sunday. Weak high pressure will build
across the region Monday through Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds will continue to thicken from NW to SE this evening as
the cold front approaches from Quebec. There's a sharp upper
trough that will graze remote NW Aroostook County tonight and
then rotate northward back into Quebec. Since the enhanced
energy/lift moves north of the area, there's not going to be
much precipitation with the front and it will not last more than
an hour or two for the most part. Thus, most of the area will
measure less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall...with the
exception of the far NW corner of Aroostook where up to a
quarter inch could accumulate. Clouds will limit low temps to
the 50s...and possibly as warm as 60F at Bangor. The front
pushes to the coast by early Sunday morning and stalls as it
becomes parallel to the flow. This will mean cloud cover
persists along the coast on Sunday and the chances of precip
rise by afternoon as a wave of low pressure propagates along the
stalled front. Further north, there's not a lot of cold air
advection and temperatures/dew points will be very similar to
today...except towards Bangor and the Downeast area where it'll
be cloudier and cooler.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model guidance has trended a little further S with the frontal
system and any weak low ovr the Gulf of ME Sun ngt, meaning that
only our coastal waters and coastal Downeast areas will see any
exiting shwrs Sun ngt and any patchy fog mainly in the eve to
erly ovrngt hrs before a wind shift to the N later Sun ngt ends
both. Elsewhere, skies will be ptly cldy with clrg advcg SE
reaching Downeast areas by Mon morn.
Skies are then xpctd to remain ptly to msly sunny by day and clr at
ngt Mon thru Tue with shwr PoPs slgt chc or less with highest slgt
chc PoPs late Tue aftn mainly Cntrl/Downeast areas with a weak s/wv
rapidly traversing E from S Cntrl Can. Temps will remain near
seasonal norms thru this ptn of the fcst.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong Wrly alf with embedded sub-synoptic s/wvs will cont to
prevail going into the long term. Wed and Thu will be ptly cldy
with isold to sct aftn/erly eve shwrs possible and temps at to
perhaps slightly abv avg. Consensus of long range models now
indicate the next best chc of measurable to perhaps sig rnfl
later Thu ngt into Fri from sfc low pres movg E from the lower
great lks into the Gulf of ME with dytm temps Fri potentially
cooled by rnfl. This will be followed by drier, breezy, and
cool temps behind the exiting low (via the Can Maritimes) on
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue until the front arrives in
northern zones towards midnight and quickly sweeps across the
area. Expect several hours of MVFR cigs...and possibly a very
brief period of IFR cigs/vis with the frontal passage. These
restrictions will only apply to sites north of HUL. There could
also be a few hours of MVFR cigs north of PQI Sunday morning as
cumulus clouds form and rise. Further south, VFR conditions
prevail from this afternoon through Sunday.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR xpctd across our TAF sites thru this pd
xcpt MVFR clgs/vsbys in sct shwrs/patchy fog at KBHB Sun ngt.
NEAR TERM: Will maintain the Small Craft Advisory, but given the
stable conditions, do not expect widespread gusts to 25 kts.
Seas may reach just over 5 feet, but given that model winds are
too high, wave forecasts may also be slightly overdone. Fog
looks like it could reappear over the waters Sunday afternoon.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: No anticipated hdlns for these pds this
update with fcst wv hts about 85 percent of WW3/NWPS blended
guidance and predominate wv pds initially 6 to 7 sec Sun ngt and
erly next week, transitioning to longer swell like pds of 9 to
12 sec by mid week.
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday
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