FXUS62 KCHS 250443
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1243 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018
Low pressure will continue to move northeast away from the area
through tonight. An upper level disturbance will move over the
area Thursday night, followed by a cold front Friday night.
High pressure will then build over the region through early
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Overnight: A mid/upper lvl low centered over eastern Kentucky
and Tennessee will slowly shift east and remain north of the
area while sfc low pressure centered near the South
Carolina/North Carolina state line skirts north/northwest of the
area, then lifts northeast and away from the region late.
Scattered to broken clouds should gradually erode overnight.
Expect all areas to remain dry with a light southwest wind
veering west late. Overnight lows should dip into the mid/upper
50s, coolest away from the coast in Southeast Georgia where
winds are lightest. Low temps will be slightly warmer along/near
the coast, remaining around 60 degrees.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will briefly build over the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night, then an upper shortwave will approach Thursday
and Thursday night. A surface low lifting northeast into central
VA will push a weak cold front through late Thursday afternoon
and Thursday night. Given the weak moisture return ahead of the
front, the shower coverage associated with the front will likely
be on the decrease as it approaches. We are only showing chance
PoPs, highest in northern areas, for Thursday night. We
maintained a slight chance of showers through Friday since
another upper shortwave will rotate through during the day. High
temps will be in the upper 70s to around 80 each day.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast confidence remains low through Saturday. A longwave
upper trough and associated cold front will push through the
region. However, solutions range from progressive features
crossing the region with nothing more than a few showers to a
deeper upper trough and associated surface cyclogenesis
producing more persistent precipitation through Saturday. The
latest forecast maintains a rain-free forecast Saturday. Then,
models agree that high pressure will build at the surface and
aloft over the region late weekend through at least early next
week, supporting dry weather and near to slightly above normal
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS and KSAV through 06z Thursday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions unlikely.
Overnight: Low pressure will slowly shift east/northeast just
north of the area, resulting in a steady pressure gradient over
northern waters and a slightly more relaxed pressure gradient
over southern waters. As the low shifts further east-northeast,
winds should slowly decrease and slightly turn more west-southwest
late with speeds mainly below 15 kt. Seas will be elevated, but
will show a subsiding trend. However, 6 ft seas should linger
in northern SC waters through much of the night and continue in
offshore Georgia waters into Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories
will therefore remain in effect for northern SC waters and
offshore Georgia waters overnight.
The residual 6 ft seas over the offshore Georgia waters should
subside midday Wednesday. Then, a series of minor weather systems
will keep wind directions on the move through the weekend but
wind speeds and seas should remain below advisory thresholds.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ374.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ350.
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page