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FXUS62 KCHS 210527
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
127 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough along the Carolina coast will move away from
the area tonight. High pressure will then build into the region
and persist through the weekend. Low pressure could move
through the Southeast Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
We adjusted clouds to linger a bit longer through the overnight
across Southeast SC given latest guidance and satellite trends.
Overall, forecast on track with otherwise minor adjustments to
initial trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lead shortwave crosses the region early Thursday while main
impressive vorticity max enters the trough and streaks by just
to our north Thursday evening. While these features may be
capable of introducing a few clouds over northern zones due to
their moderately strong ascent forecast soundings show far too
dry of an atmospheric column for anything more.

Friday and Saturday will feature a return of more seasonable high
temperatures. The trough over the NE US will deepen into a winter-
like cutoff but the associated cool advection remains largely
confined to our north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will prevail across the region through the
weekend. Models show a coastal trough forming Monday while a
system approaches from the west. The system could bring rainfall
to the region on Tuesday. However, there remains uncertainty
over the timing, strength, and the track of this system.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS: Considerable moisture will remain trapped in place
through the night, with a sharp inversion to hold until late to
the southwest of low pressure off the upper South Carolina and
North Carolina coast. This will result in IFR or MVFR ceilings,
before winds shift to offshore and dry things out for Thursday
as VFR returns. Gusty W-SW will prevail through the afternoon as
deep mixing commences.

KSAV: VFR through 00Z Friday. The only concern will be for gusty
W-SW winds Thursday afternoon due to deep mixing during the
warmest part of the day.

Extended Aviation: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
We still have Small Craft Advisories in effect for the AMZ350
and AMZ374 waters, mainly to account for winds and seas that
are elevated in response to low pressure off to the north of the
local waters. Overnight the gradient eases locally, as the low
lifts into eastern North Carolina and high pressure builds from
the W-SW.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... West to northwest flow
expected for most of the period as high pressure expands north-to-
south across areas just along and west of the Mississippi and low
pressure only gradually lifts into the Northeast while
deepening.

Extended Marine: High pressure building towards the region will
allow winds and seas to trend downward. The Small Craft Advisory
will expire for the GA waters beyond 20 nm on Friday. No advisories
are expected during the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday and Friday: RH values as low as 25-30 percent and elevated
offshore winds could cause fire concerns, especially if partners
report low fuel moisture.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Additional coastal flooding is likely with the high tides Thursday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ374.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
AMZ350.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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