FXUS62 KCHS 190410
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1210 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019
A trough of low pressure will generally prevail into early next
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Weakening convection will move across the northern portions of
Colleton, Dorchester and Berkeley Counties through 1-2 AM before
dissipating. Lows will range from the lower 70 inland to the
upper 70s at the beaches.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lower confidence Wednesday with moderate confidence thereafter.
Deep layer troughing will prevail through Thursday night with
less troughing aloft Friday. Some showers and weak thunderstorms
are expected Wednesday morning as an upper shortwave trough
moves through although afternoon/early evening coverage is a bit
less certain given some drier air and subsidence behind the
initial shortwave. We maintained 50 percent rain chances however
for now as another shortwave is expected to approach later in
the day. Wednesday night should then be mainly dry with a better
chance of showers and storms Thursday afternoon/evening ahead
of another much stronger shortwave. Stronger deep layer shear
should lead to a slightly greater risk for a few severe storms,
especially across areas farther inland. Drier air should then
move in from the north Thursday night although lingering
moisture could lead to some showers/storms still near the
Altamaha River area mainly through Friday morning.
Temperatures should be above normal through the period. Heat
indices could be near early-season Advisory levels (105 degrees)
south of I- 16 near and to the west of I-95 Thursday and Friday
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday and Sunday: Lower chances for rainfall are expected as
the mid and upper level ridge holds over the region and deep
layer moisture remains marginal. Overall, expect only isolated
to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms.
Monday and Tuesday: Models are indicating that the upper ridge
begins to break down as an upper level short wave trough moves
across the northeast U.S. With Deep layer moisture on the rise,
and lowering upper level heights, expect that overall chances
for convection will gradually increase back toward more climo
values of 30-40% levels.
The latest guidance continues to show temperatures well above
normal through this period. Highs in the lower to mid 90s and
lows in the lower to mid 70s.
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR for much of the period. Scattered showers/tstms are expected
to develop by late morning across interior Southeast Georgia and
spread east/northeast to the coast. The greatest impact
probabilities look to occur at KSAV where a TEMPO group will
placed for MVFR conditions roughly 17-20z. At KCHS, guidance is
not as robust on coverage that far to the north, so no mention
of tstms will be included there for the 06Z TAF cycle.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic restrictions likely due to
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday evening. Lower risk for impacts from mainly
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Friday through the
Tonight: Southerly flow this evening will turn more
southwesterly through the period. Modest surging is expected,
and winds should top out around 15 knots. Seas will average 2-4
Wednesday through Sunday: A trough will generally persist
inland through the period, although a rare June cold front will
likely move south into the SC waters Friday night/early
Saturday. Breezy winds ahead of the front could lead to marginal
Small Craft Advisories, mainly just in Charleston Harbor
Wednesday afternoon, then across the rest of the marine area at
times through Thursday night. No other major concerns thereafter
through the weekend.
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