FXUS61 KCLE 222345
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
745 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018
High pressure will drift east across the Great Lakes region
through the weekend into early next week. A warm front will lift
north through the area on Monday. A cold front will move east
across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A combination of stratocu and high cloud aloft remain across the
area. Raised cloud cover this evening with cirrus gradually
sinking south with time overnight. Meanwhile expecting low
clouds to hang on near Lake Erie in Central and Northwest Ohio.
Raised mins a degree or two closer to the lake and across some
of the southeastern counties that will also be slower to clear.
Gloomy skies this afternoon will slowly clear out this evening
and overnight as drier air moves in. A weak surface high in
southern Canada is filtering down into the area along with a
northeasterly surface wind. Some clouds may hang on longer
over portions of central Ohio. Cool weather is expected tonight
with most locations dropping down into the upper 40s by Sunday
morning away from the Lake. Slightly milder temperatures are
expected near the lakeshore. Sunday looks like a better day with
filtered sunshine. There will be some scattered high cirrus but
overall brighter than what we are seeing today and milder as
well with temperature near seasonable averages. The next
shortwave in the upper level flow will begin to move in our
direction from the west-southwest. Cloud cover will be on the
increase Sunday night.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast for the short term is wet with near seasonal temps.
Models are in reasonable agreement. On Monday high pressure just
south of James Bay shift east into New England. This will allow
strong low pressure to track across the Northern Lakes lifting
a warm front across the forecast area. Models differ on timing,
but all 3 have the front north of the forecast area by evening,
with a surge of gulf moisture, producing widespread rain
showers. The trailing cold front will move slowly across the
forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Expect
periods of showers Monday night through Tuesday night. The front
and the showers will finally push SE of the forecast area
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be centered north of the area Wednesday night. We
will likely retain a fair amount of cloudiness with upper jet energy
still streaming overhead and the surface front stalling across the
Appalachians briefly. The next shortwave dropping out of western
Canada and across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes looks to take a
cold front across our area on Friday. Limited moisture with it at
first, but as the cooler air comes across the warm water and the
winds shift onshore would expect some showers across the
upslope/lake effect areas on Friday. High pressure returns for
Saturday. Temperatures through the long term will sit slightly below
normal as a better warm up waits until next week. For being the long
term part of the forecast, the models are fairly similar and this
boosts confidence in the forecast.
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Lower cloud deck near 3-4K feet will become confined closer to
Lake Erie and mainly effect CLE/TOL overnight. Otherwise high
cloud will gradually clear from north to south. Some expansion
of lower cloud possible across NW Ohio with daytime heating on
Sunday but should tend to clear through the afternoon. East to
northeast winds will be light overnight and increase to 5-10
knots on Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR showers and storms possible Monday into
Tuesday then across NE OH/NW PA behind a cold front Wednesday
Small craft advisory has ended. NE flow has diminished to 10 to 15
knots, and will continue to weaken overnight. Choppy conditions
return Sunday as ENE flow increases to 10 to 15 knots. Winds turn
to the SE Sunday night and to the South Monday as warm front lifts
NE across the Lake. South winds increase to 20 to 30 knots Monday
night ahead of approaching cold front. Winds turn to the North
Wednesday morning behind strong cold front.
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