FXUS61 KCLE 190843
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
443 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019
High pressure over the Ohio Valley today will drift east to off
the Mid-Atlantic coast by Wednesday. Low pressure over eastern
Ontario will lift a warm front across the area on Wednesday
afternoon, followed by a cold front on Thursday. High pressure
over the Central Plains on Friday will build east over the
region for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley today will keep the area dry,
as an upper trough departs the region. Some scattered cloud
cover may develop later this afternoon as there is some weak
warm air advection in the low levels, but the air mass over the
region is fairly dry, so would only expect some cumulus at best.
With the loss of diurnal heating, any clouds will diminish
overnight and keep the area mostly clear. Temperatures for today
will perform a bit better than Monday with mid 40s expected with
sunshine in the area.
An upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes region on
Wednesday, supporting a low pressure system over eastern
Ontario. A warm front will move through the forecast area ahead
of this low on Wednesday afternoon, bringing increased southerly
flow and cloudiness to the region. Believe that it will be tough
to get precipitation with the warm frontal passage given the
lack of low level moisture, but moisture will improve as the
forecast area gets into the warm sector of this system. The best
chance for rain will be with the upper trough later in the day
on Wednesday. With this, have trimmed back PoPs across the area
with chance PoPs into Toledo around Noon, slowing expanding
eastward through the afternoon. The trough axis approaches the
western CWA by 00z, so have likely PoPs for the west half in the
very late afternoon hours. Temperatures on Wednesday will be
warmer and even above normal into the lower 50s.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Digging upper level trough will move east southeast across the Great
Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday with an attendant cold
front pushing east across the area. Have opted for high likely/low
cat pops with precip ongoing at the start of the period. The front
will push out of the area during the day Thursday, with drier
conditions working into the area as ridging builds into the region.
There may be some lingering precip associated with lake effect and
lingering frontal forcing east Thursday afternoon, but dry
conditions are expected by Thursday evening. Marginal
surface/boundary layer temps suggest a mix of rain and snow for most
of the area Wednesday night, with precip becoming predominantly rain
during the daytime hours Thursday. A secondary cold front will cross
the Great Lakes and push across the area late Thursday night through
early Friday. Have generally chance pops for the eastern half o the
area after 06Z Friday, with mainly snow expected given model
temperature profiles. Ridging will build east across the area Friday
night ending any threat of precipitation. Lows Wednesday night will
be in the mid/upper 30s. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the
low to upper 40s, with temps a touch cooler on Friday across the
northeast part of the forecast area. Lows Thursday night will be in
the upper 20s to low 30s, with lows Friday night dropping into
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long term period starts out quiet across the area, with a large area
of high pressure building east across the region Saturday through
Sunday. Model details become a bit uncertain by Sunday night into
Monday, but it appears a more active period is in store with the
mid/upper level pattern flattening out across the CONUS and low
pressure moving east from the Plains into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys
as another upper trough sinks south through the Great Lakes. This
would bring some precip potential to the area by Sunday night
through Monday, but for now will opt for slight chance/low chance
pops for the period given the model differences at this time. After
a cooler day on Saturday with highs in the low to upper 40s, temps
will be warmer for Sunday and Monday will highs in the 50s.
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley today will allow for VFR
conditions across the area. A patchy area of 7000 ft clouds
over NW Ohio will expand east this morning and perhaps enough to
get a broken ceiling at a terminal or two. However, these clouds
should mix out later this morning and mostly clear conditions
should be present. With high pressure overhead, a lake breeze
will develop later today, allowing for winds to shift around at
KERI and KCLE. Some afternoon cumulus may form over the area but
nothing too impactful at the terminals.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible in light rain/snow
Wednesday into Thursday.
Quiet stretch of weather continues across the lake with high
pressure slowly moving east through the region today through
Wednesday. A cold front will cross the lake Wednesday night into
Thursday, with southerly winds becoming westerly. Another strong
cold front will push southeast across the lake Thursday night into
Friday, with winds becoming more north/northwest and increasing to
15-25 kts. High pressure will regain control across the area Friday
night through Sunday with winds fairly light across the lake.
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