FXUS61 KCLE 121950
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
250 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA BEFORE
MOVING TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO LARGE CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE
FLOOD WATCH GOING WITH RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH...ONLY
CONCERN WOULD BE IN AREAS WHERE HEAVIER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS FOR
EARLY TONIGHT. NO THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY AT MID AFTERNOON BUT
CONCERNED FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT PLUS MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES WERE
HIGH. WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING...SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
ALL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO
LOW SO RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURRING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING BECAUSE OFF THE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE FROM AROUND HALF INCH TO AN INCH WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. KEPT LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT....GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE ON SUNDAY. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO EXTEND ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND WENT WITH DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING FROM UPPER MIDWEST TO TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS DURING THE
LONG TERM...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
POSSIBLE RADIATING CONDITIONS. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE COSMOLOGICALLY COLDER SPOTS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE ACROSS SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR AT ERI AND CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS AT REMAINDER OF
LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS OF VFR CEILINGS...BUT CLOSER
LOOK AT VIS SAT SHOWING SOME DEVELOPING LOWER CU ACROSS INTERIOR
WHICH MAY BRING BKN015-030 CEILINGS THROUGH REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON. THICKER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
WEST OF FDY AND TOL THROUGH AFTERNOON. SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KT AT TIMES.
GOING INTO TONIGHT SE FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS CONTINUES. WHILE
GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN SHOWERS TO SITES MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND
QUICKLY BRINGING DOWN CIGS AND VIS...DELAYED A BIT AT CLE AND ERI
WITH SE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT INHIBITING QUICKLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND VIS. BY 12Z EXPECTED WIDESPREAD AT BEST LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IFR A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALSO. FOR NOW DIDN/T MENTION ANY TS IN
TAFS...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON-VFR CEILINGS/VSBY WITH SHOWERS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY...THEN VFR LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE LAKE AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. INVERTED TROUGH
ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE WITH PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND BY
SATURDAY BE NEARING 35 KNOT GALES. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF GALES BUT WILL CONTINUE JUST BELOW DUE TO CONCERN OF
STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE. WINDS WILL COME DOWN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND BE LIGHT NORTHERLY BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS...DRIFTING ICE IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
MOVE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...RANDEL
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...OUDEMAN
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