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FXUS61 KCLE 240113
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
913 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast
through Friday. Weak low pressure will move through the Central
Great Lakes on Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High clouds getting a little thicker in the west so added
mention of the clouds for partly cloudy. Expecting this activity
to gradually thin overnight. Otherwise, no other major changes
to forecast.

Original Discussion...

A dry airmass will remain overhead through the near term as high
pressure overhead slowly builds to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Dewpoints
are coming down and given the favorable cooling conditions tonight,
expecting lows to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures
at 925mb are expected to warm by about 3 degrees on Thursday and
will combine with full sun allowing many areas to surpass the 80
degree mark. Lake breezes are expected to develop during the
afternoon keeping lakeshore areas closer to 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Little change in the short term forecast. High pressure over
the Lower lakes moves off the Mid Atlantic coast Friday setting
up south flow across the forecast area. Temperatures soar into
the mid 80s most places and upper 80s NW OH on Friday. Models
coming into better agreement moving a weak cold front across the
forecast area Saturday afternoon/evening. Expect some scattered
-tsra to develop with the front, but for now will continue with
low chance pops. Front moves east of the area Saturday night,
but upper trough swings across area Sunday so will continue with
low chance pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A frontal boundary should be moving across the area Sunday night
into Monday. Some evening convection on Sunday will be possible. The
better chances will be on Monday when a weakening cold front crosses
the region. Currently it looks like it will be scattered coverage.
High pressure takes control of the area by Tuesday and will linger
into Tuesday night. Moisture levels increase on Wednesday. It is
uncertain if the upper level ridge will break down enough to have
all that much convection on Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions will prevail across the entire forecast area
tonight into tomorrow. Streak of high level cirrus streaming
into northwest Ohio at this time otherwise clear skies will be
the rule overnight into tomorrow. Main issue is lake breeze
developing at Erie and Cleveland. Will shift winds around to the
north and northeast during the early afternoon as heating takes
place. Winds go light and variable tomorrow evening again.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR possible Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue on the Lakes into the weekend. large
area of high pressure centered over the Western Basin of Lake Erie
will slide slowly east, then move off the east coast Friday. Weak
south flow sets up on the lake Friday as high shifts east. Winds
turn to the west late Saturday as a weak cold front moves across the
lake. Scattered thunderstorms possible but wind should stay below
small craft advisory criteria.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...DJB
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