FXUS61 KCLE 152210
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
610 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019
A cold front will reach the lower Great Lakes tonight and stall
over northern Ohio on Sunday. Several weak low pressure systems
will move through the region along the front before it is pushed
south of the area on Tuesday. High pressure will attempt to
build in from the north on Tuesday into Wednesday. However,
another low pressure system enters the region on Wednesday night
for the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Showers continue to move east across the area with some pockets
of moderate rainfall occurring. This will be the first of a
series of waves or rain that will move east across the area over
the next couple days. No major changes in the forecast with
steady rain expected.
The next 36 hours continue to look fairly wet over the region.
Will maintain the Flash Flood Watch as is for now, but trends
remain that the southern half of the forecast area is most at
risk for flooding this weekend. A large area of rain with some
embedded thunder extends from western Ohio into eastern Illinois
with a weak front near the Ohio River. This rain will continue
entering the forecast area this evening. An MCV feature over
western Illinois will continue east tonight and generate
additional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm.
Rainfall totals tonight will be in one to two inch range with
the highest amounts expected where this MCV feature tracks. A
cold front slowly approaching from the north will stall over the
forecast area on Sunday and be the source for additional shower
and thunderstorm development. The portions of the forecast area
in the warm sector of the front will be the area to watch for
flooding concerns on Sunday, as convective development may allow
for heavier rainfall rates on what will be already saturated
grounds. Given that the area will be fairly worked over and
remain fairly cloudy, not expecting widespread thunderstorm
development. Have the highest PoPs in the southern CWA, while
have reduced PoPs north of the front with drier northerly flow
which will help prevent rain. Temperatures remain cooler than
normal through the period with highs in the lower 70s.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An active period continues during the work week as a frontal
boundary remains just south of the area. Low pressure will move
along the front just south of the area Monday and again late Tuesday
into Tuesday night, bringing precipitation chances to the area. The
best precipitation chances will be south of a Findlay to Meadville
line through most of the period, with likely pops centered around
the best chances/low passage Monday afternoon and late Tuesday.
Highs will be in the mid/upper 70s will lows in the low 60s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The active pattern continues into the weekend, with another low
tracking across the area late Wednesday night through Tuesday. Have
pops increasing to likely through this period. A brief ridge of high
pressure will bring dry conditions for a short time by Friday,
however precipitation chances increase heading into the weekend as a
shortwave rides east along a building ridge across the region.
Models start to diverge a bit with this system, so confidence only
high enough for chance pops Friday night into Saturday. Highs will
generally be in the mid to upper 70s, with some warming to near 80
by the weekend. Lows will generally be in the low 60s.
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
A mix of VFR and MVFR across the area this afternoon will
continue to deteriorate across the region as a front with
moderate to heavy rainfall enters the airspace. Some thunder was
present with rain over eastern Indiana this afternoon and have a
vicinity thunder mention for the southern TAF sites. Conditions
will fall to IFR in most locations tonight as widespread
rainfall and stratus is present over the region. The front
stalls over the region and will allow for poor conditions to
remain over the area. With the front being the focus for
rainfall going into Sunday, will actually leave KTOL dry for the
first half of the day. Winds this afternoon and evening will be
out of the south to southwest with gusts to 20 knots possible.
As the front bisects the region for Sunday, areas south of the
front will see more southerly winds and folks north of the front
will have more northeasterly flow.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sunday night through Tuesday with
continued showers/thunderstorms and low ceilings.
Southwest winds over the lake this afternoon and evening will become
more northerly to northeasterly late tonight as a cold front sinks
south across the lake. The boundary will remain just south of the
lake through at least midweek, bringing light northeast to north
flow for much of the period. A low will move across the lake towards
the end of the week, with winds becoming northwest Thursday night
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late Monday night for OHZ003-006>014-
PA...Flash Flood Watch through late Monday night for PAZ001>003.
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