FXUS61 KCLE 170858
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
358 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018
A cold front extending from low pressure over northern Quebec will
move south across the eastern Great Lakes this evening. A weak
trough will slide through the Ohio Valley on Sunday with high
pressure building in behind it Sunday night. Another weak low
pressure system will pass north of Lake Erie on Monday night,
pulling a cold front south across the lake early Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stratus deck remains across the entire southern Great Lakes Region
early this morning. Westerly flow continues across Lake Erie but
not seeing any precipitation showing up on regional radars given
shallow moisture and marginal temperatures for lake effect.
With that said, can not rule out a little bit of drizzle falling out
of the shallow cloud deck, mainly over NW PA and will hold onto a
mention in the forecast for a couple more hours. As we progress
through the day, deeper moisture will overspread the lake and may
provide sufficient ice crystals for snow showers or a rain/snow
mix to develop. Temperatures already starting out in the mid to
upper 30s will only warm a couple degrees today, but may be
enough for a mix with for rain, especially near Lake Erie.
A cold front is noted upstream across Lake Huron extending from low
pressure over northern Quebec. Some minimal increase in low level
convergence is expected as this back door cold front approaches late
this afternoon into this evening. Whatever light showers that
develop will shift inland across the snowbelt this evening but
overall forcing is limited and expect little if any
accumulation, except locally up to an inch in NW PA. Winds will
shift around off Lake Erie and fall into the lower 30s
The shortwave seen on water vapor imagery over the
northern Rockies this morning will slide across the southern
Great Lakes on Sunday. Although moisture will be a limiting
factor, weak lift will develop along the 850-700mb front
bringing light precipitation to portions of northern Ohio and NW
Pennsylvania. With QPF amounts of less than a tenth of an inch
expected, will keep pops at the chance level with just a
rain/snow mix for most areas during the daytime hours. Highs on
Sunday expected in the mid to upper 30s again.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Nearly the entire lower 48 states will be engulfed in a broad upper
level trough by Sunday night. The trough is expected to deepen with
time across the local area in positive tilted fashion through
Tuesday. The upper level trough then becomes negatively tilted by
Tuesday night as amplification of an upper level ridge takes place
over the west coast of the United States and advances east to the
Rockies. An upper level jet maximum will begin to push east of the
area by Sunday night and will place a portion of the southern parts
of the forecast area in the right rear quad of the jet. A shot of
moisture with this feature will move across the area as well Sunday
night into Monday. Will introduce a chance for precipitation across
the area Sunday night into Monday. Then, as upper level trough
pivots across the local area, surface low pressure will move east
across the lower Great Lakes Monday night followed by weak high
pressure Tuesday and Tuesday night. All-in-all, it will be an
active weather pattern across the area that will transition into
some residual lake effect snow in the northeast by Tuesday night
with fair weather elsewhere. Colder temperatures can be expected
through the period in the cold air advection under the upper level
trough. Highs in the lower to middle 30s and lows well into the 20s
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level trough will exit stage right as amplifying ridge
over the western United States builds east across the forecast area.
This will result in a weak wave of low pressure expected to move
east across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday and then followed by
high pressure Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. A warm front
will lift northeast of the area Thursday night on the west side of
the high pressure center. This will allow for some warm air
advection to take place out of the southwest and help boost
temperatures a tad warmer than what we have seen in recent days. 850
MB temperatures are expected to surge above 0 to around 4 degrees C
by Friday afternoon. A cold front and associated moisture is
expected to push closer to the forecast area from the west on
Friday. There is a slight chance that by afternoon for some
precipitation in the western portions of the forecast area.
Otherwise, the rest of the area will remain dry Friday.
.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
MVFR conditions with widespread stratus will continue for most
of the TAF cycle. Ceilings are starting off VFR at TOL but are
expected to lower overnight. Deeper moisture will overspread the
area on Saturday afternoon with a chance of light precipitation
developing. This will enhance lake effect snow towards ERI
after 19Z, peaking in the 21-00Z window with IFR possible. Winds
will shift to the north and eventually northeast during the
evening with a cold front bringing scattered snow showers
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely Sunday and Tuesday.
A small craft advisory will remain in effect through this afternoon
as winds and waves gradually diminish and subside respectively.
Otherwise, winds will become variable 10 knots or less through
Sunday night and begin to increase from the southwest on Monday.
Small craft advisory will likely be needed again late Monday night
into Wednesday as flow shifts around to the southwest.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
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