FXUS61 KCLE 050908
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
408 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL SINK SOUTH TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
OHIO FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS MID CLOUDS ARE CLEARING TO THE SOUTH WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS OFF LAKE ERIE. PATCHY FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CLOSE IN ON ZERO. THE STRATUS/FOG IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT QUICKLY GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE TOWARDS NW PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL
BE IMPACTED BY CLOUDS SINKING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID 40S. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN OHIO FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS ACROSS
QUEBEC TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE GREAT
BASIN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FRONT AND MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
MOISTURE QUALITY AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SNOW ALONG THE FRONT TO
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A LOW CHANCE POP AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
NATION WILL DOMINATE INTO/THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WENT JUST A BIT
ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPS WITH LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS WEST WHERE UPPER 90S
ACTUALLY WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
DEPENDING ON IT THE GFS IS ECMWF IS CORRECT VS THE (SLIGHTLY) COOLER
GFS. WITH SUCH A CAP OF HOT AIR ACROSS THE AREA DONT EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAT WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVG THUNDERSTORMS
SO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHER THAN THAT EXPECT MAINLY HOT AND
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH HOWEVER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL MIXING BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN
CONCERN IS THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. EXCEPT FOR ERIE...BROUGHT
NRN TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT IN FOG. FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND CIGS. AFTER 14-16Z EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. ONLY CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
IS MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND LAKE HURON. THIS IS MOVING
SOUTH ALTHOUGH NAM TAKES THIS EAST WITH ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
GETTING INTO THE ERIE AREA DURING THE MORNING. IF NAM IS OFF MVFR
DECK COULD GET INTO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE VFR BUT WILL BEEN TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
MOISTURE.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE NEAR TERM WHICH WILL
KEEP WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS OR SO WITH NO CONVECTION ON THE LAKE.
MODELS POINT TO THE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTENING A BIT OVER THE LAKES
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW AN MCS OR AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY/EVENING MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS BACK EAST TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KUBINA



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