FXUS61 KCLE 061702
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
102 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST OHIO
WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVES UP THE
EAST COAST. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH TODAY AS IT IT
BEING BLOCKED BY RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF HANNA. SUBSIDENCE WILL
INCREASE AROUND THE OUTSKIRTS OF HANNA THOUGH AND THINK WE WILL
HAVE TO SEE THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE RATHER THAN MOVE AWAY. SHOWERS
HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THIS DRYING
PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE. WILL MENTION RAIN OR DRIZZLE FROM NORWALK
AND MT GILEAD EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN RESTRICT THE
RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES EAST OF I-71 FOR LATE MORNING AND MENTION
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR CLEARING
TO BREAK THROUGH BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FROM
BOTH SIDES THINK THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS NW OHIO AND WILL
LIKELY START OUT THE MORNING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY.

DEW POINTS RATHER HIGH (MID TO UPPER 60S)...ESPECIALLY WHERE
IT IS RAINING...BUT WITH MIXING THE AIRMASS SHOULD STEADILY DRY
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP OFF TO THE MID/UPPER
50S. AREAS THAT STAY CLOUDY THE LONGEST WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE THE
TOUGHEST TIME WARMING...AND WILL KEEP THE AREAS JUST EAST OF THE
THE I-71 CORRIDOR WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S
WITH MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT. WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. TROUGH ALOFT
TO SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ALL
PRINT OUT CHANCE POP OF SHOWERS (13-47 PERCENT). THINK THAT THIS
IS OVERDONE. AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE. DECENT
JET ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH AND I AM SURE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR CLOUDS BUT TYPICALLY THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM
RESULTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF VIRGA OR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.
SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY EVENING AND WILL WAIT FOR THE
NEXT FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. WILL IGNORE POPS/QPF FROM NAM/WRF
MODEL ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS HEALTHY WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPING AND INTERSECTING NICE ENTRANCE REGION OF JET ALOFT
AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE. WILL BOOST POPS TO "LIKELY" AND
MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EAST TUE
MORNING. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT 5C TUE AFTERNOON.
PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND NE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS...WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUIET PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
THREAT FOR SOME RAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW RESULTS IN WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. IF THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
AS EUROPEAN SUGGESTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.
IF THE MODEL IS RUNNING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...AS IS TYPICALLY THE
CASE...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE WARM FRONT
PASSES. WILL TREND TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND WITH
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HANG IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR HIGHS.

I DECIDED TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EVENT TIMING IS OFF BY ABOUT 12 HOURS FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REMAINING BAND OF PATCHY LIGHT SHRA AND DZ OVER EASTERN TAFS WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS MOISTURE AND ENERGY GET PULLED TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHERE HANNA IS TRACKING. AS DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTH CONTINUE TO PUSH IN EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT AND BREAK
UP ALTHOUGH BREAKOUT TO SCT WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY OR INTO EARLY
EVE FOR YNG AND ERI. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CAK AND
YNG MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP LATE. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
SPREAD BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING SOON
FOLLOWED BY SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH YNG AND ERI THROUGH 18Z. AREAS OF
MVFR PROBABLY WILL OCCUR WITH THE SHRA.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE A FEW
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL A LOW
AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
MORE AREAS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD VFR WED THEN A
CHANCE FOR MORE AREAS OF MVFR SHOULD RETURN LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FEET
ON THE NEARSHORE FROM CLEVELAND EAST SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

LIGHT WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS THE DIRECTION MEANDERS AROUND THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WARM
LAKE SHOULD ALLOW 925 MB WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
LAKE. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. FLOW SHOULD
DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDING WAVES. LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE FLOW DEVELOPS INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS/LOMBARDY






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