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FXUS61 KCLE 200355
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1155 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend. A
cold front will cross the local area Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure was building over the Ohio Valley and Appalachians
tonight and winds were becoming light and variable in most
areas. Lows should drop into the 40s in most areas with some
upper 30s in the colder spots. No changes for the overnight
update.

Original NEAR TERM discussion...
A weak cold front has just about pushed southeast of the area.
Other than a few high clouds and and a slight wind shift there
is little evidence of the front. High pressure will build back
across the area and dominate into the start of the weekend. As a
result skies will remain mostly clear to clear. By midday
tomorrow the local area will be west of the surface ridge which
will allow southerly flow to return. That should help warm temps
up a couple of degrees from today. Have used a blend of guidance
for low temps the next couple of nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The area will get to enjoy the last few days of warmer than normal
temps before major pattern changes take place for the middle of next
week. The cold front still looks on track to push east to be near
the far NW corner of the CWA by late Sun night before stalling as a
wave of low pressure starts to ride NNE along the front on Mon. Sun
should mostly stay dry but there is a chc a few shra could sneak
into the western fringe by the end of the day. A better chc for shra
will spread east into the area Sun night and more so on Mon as the
wave moving along the front provides better dynamics for precip
development.

Highs Sat and Sun in the low to mid 70s will start to cool some into
the mid 60s to lower 70s for Mon as clouds and shra limit the temp
rise by then.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will likely be across the area Monday night as the
trough amplifies with a significant portion of shortwave energy
making its way down across the mid Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast
states. Just as is the case with the first trough to come across the
central U.S. over the weekend, it is unclear as to how much energy
peels away resulting in split flow toward mid week. Broadly
speaking, though, the trend is for ridging to be working across the
western Great Lakes by Thursday. Therefore there will be a several
day period of precip chances focused around the front Monday night
into Tuesday and then with cool cyclonic flow off of the lake
Tuesday into Wednesday. Allowed for improving weather for Thursday.
Temperatures will be running much cooler than recently. Highs in the
lower 60s Tuesday will be replaced by mid 50s for Wednesday and
Thursday. Chances for sub-40 degree lows come Wednesday night and
Thursday especially if we can get rid of the cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as high
pressure remains over the Great Lakes. Only cirrus shield to
deal with today. Light SW winds will turn to the S by daybreak.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in shra Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 945 PM, the significant wave height off Presque Isle
(Erie, PA) was down to 3.8 feet and falling. Wind speeds were
continuing to diminish. Will go ahead and cancel the small
craft advisory.

Original MARINE Discussion...
The marginal SCA conditions east of Cleveland will be settling
down tonight as high pressure spreads back north into the lake.
South winds mainly under 15 knots should tend to prevail thru
Sun. A cold front slowly working east across the lake with a
wave of low pressure moving along the front will lead to
changeable winds Mon that should line up out of the W to NW for
Tue and increase enough for an SCA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Adams
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