FXUS61 KCLE 231923
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
323 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017
Upper level low pressure should persist over the northeast third of
the country into the middle of next week while surface high pressure
tends to dominate the Great Lakes.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The main upper level trough will be locked over the eastern lakes
tonight thru Thu night while weak s/w troughs rotate SE thru the
area with the most pronounced one late Thu and early Thu night. The
upper trough over the relatively warm leri will create instability
that may lead to a few lake effect shra anytime into midday Thu
before an increased threat occurs late Thu aftn and Thu night. There
could be some isolated thunder but for the most part will just see
Temps will continue to cool with lows tonight in the 50s and highs
Thu only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There will probably be some
upper 40s for the inland east Thu night and maybe also in the MNN to
MFD to BJJ area.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
850 mb temperatures are progged to remain unseasonably cool on
Friday. The ECMWF is a couple of degrees cooler than the GFS but
either scenario continues the potential for some lake effect clouds
and perhaps a few morning showers in the snowbelt. The lake clouds
should mix out in the afternoon evolving into fair weather
cumulus/stratocumulus and the last of the showers should dissipate.
Highs on Friday generally with a few degrees of 70. Lows Friday
night on the chilly side with 40s in many inland locations.
The trough aloft is progged to drift eastward over the weekend. The
ECMWF shows one last short wave diving through the trough on
Saturday but it should be far enough east that it will have no
impact on the forecast area given the dry and stable lower layers.
Sunny skies with fair weather cumulus.
The surface high should be east of the area by Sunday and the flow
will come around from the ESE. Inconsequential lake breezes may
continue. Cirrus clouds and perhaps even a few mid clouds could
spread in from the west but the hope is for another day of mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temps in the 70s, a few degrees warmer
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level closed low develops over Illinois on Monday and remains
nearly stationary on Tuesday. Clouds will increase as moisture
streams north ahead of the upper low but differences remain between
long range models with respect to the amount of moisture and
coverage of showers. Will continue with a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms in NW Ohio on Monday, expanding to much of central
Ohio on Tuesday. By Wednesday the upper low will open and start to
drift east across the region. Drier air will start to wrap into the
system so will keep Wednesday dry for now. High temperatures
expected to remain just below normal in the 70s through the
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
The upper trough and some lingering lower level moisture should
allow for sct to bkn cu until sunset then there will be dissipation
of the cu, especially in the west half of the area. May see a few
isolated pop up showers for mainly the NE half of the area thru
midday Thu due to the upper trough and enhancement from a relatively
warm Lake Erie. Coverage remains too low to mention in the TAFs.
West to northwest winds 8 to 15 knots will diminish with sunset and
gradually veer more toward the north tonight thru midday Thu.
OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in morning fog Friday through Saturday.
The west wind on Lake Erie has been marginally strong enough to
support the small craft advisory, mainly up the east lakeshore.
There is a weak trough of low pressure that will drop across the
lake this evening and winds could pick up for a few hours. The
increase may not be more than a few knots but will leave the
advisory in place to expire at 10 PM. The only option will be to
shave off Cuyahoga County since the fetch is shortest in this area.
Another weak trough of low pressure will drop across the lake later
on Thursday. The pressure gradient is progged to be weak and winds
and waves should remain below small craft advisory criteria. The
wind direction will be more northerly so the higher waves will shift
from the eastern basin to the central basin.
A large area of high pressure will move from central Canada to New
England by early next week. Winds will slowly veer from a northerly
direction to ESE by Monday. Winds speeds are expected to remain
light. The east fetch can generate some swells on the western basin.
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
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