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FXUS61 KCLE 230609
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
109 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will move east toward Ohio late tonight into
Wednesday bringing widespread precipitation to the area. A
significant warming trend is expected on Wednesday...with a
cooling trend expected into the weekend. A series of weak storm
systems will brush the area Thursday into the weekend bringing
unsettled weather to the region through at least the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Despite temperatures in the lower 30s in Lucas County,
dewpoints remain in the upper 20s and getting reports of slick
conditions as very cold rain falls onto cold pavement. Issued an
SPS through 4 AM when temperatures/dewpoints are expected to
start to push upwards and alleviate some of the icing concerns.
Will update the forecast shortly to add a mention of freezing
rain back in and slow the degree of warming.

Original...An upper low will move slowly from Kansas this
evening northeast toward southern Wisconsin by late Wednesday
morning. This will bring precipitation into northwest Ohio later
this evening spreading east into NW PA Wednesday morning. A
warm front will spread north across the region during this time
frame...with a significant warming trend...meaning much of the
precipitation will fall in the form of rain. There will be a
brief window later tonight into early tomorrow morning where
freezing rain will be a possibility..especially across Lucas and
Wood Counties.

Precipitation should move east out of the region by Wednesday
evening...with a few lingering showers possible across the
eastern third of the area.

When all is said and done...much of the area is expected to pick
up between two-thirds of an inch to an inch of rain. This is
combination with daytime temperatures in the 40s and rain
melting a bit of the snow...we could see some significant rises
on area rivers. At this time most look to stay below flood
stage...but it is something we will continue to monitor over the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A cold front associated with a surface low over Michigan will
trail behind the precipitation...approaching western Ohio by the
early afternoon hours on Wednesday...exiting east out of NW PA
by the evening hours. This will result in a cooling trend and a
switch back to snow Wednesday evening the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering light snow will be slowly decreasing across our far
eastern areas early Thursday morning. Some lingering lake enhanced
light snow showers may still be going on across the primary Snowbelt
areas as well. A deep upper level trough develops over the Great
Lakes Region and a strong Arctic cold front moves through the area
late Thursday. Winds will increase from the west-northwest late in
the day and temperatures will fall. As the Arctic airmass invades
the area Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, scattered snow
showers area wide will develop, especially downwind of the
lake. Models indicate bands of Lake Effect snow will become
likely Thursday night into Friday for the primary Snowbelt.

Models continue to indicate moderate to locally heavy Lake Effect
snow will be possible for far northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania in the primary Snowbelt on Friday lasting through
Saturday. Some early estimates of localized 6 to 12 plus inches may
be possible with a good west to east fetch of wind from the lake.
The blast of cold and wind chills will be the main weather storm
elsewhere with scattered light snow showers for the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For a brief period of time, we will see a return southerly flow
Saturday night and early on Sunday ahead of the next cold front and
clipper like system. Widespread light snow for everywhere will be
possible on Sunday with the passage of another front and shortwave.
Another stronger clipper like system with better lift and moisture
may bring another round of light snow to the area early next week.
The is not much confidence on exact timing and amounts but the main
message we are conveying in the long term is that it will be colder
than average and several chances of snow for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Precipitation starting to spread in from the west and included a
tempo for freezing rain at TOL with reports that slick
conditions are developing on cold surfaces. Temperatures will
warm through 09Z with just rain expected beyond that time. Although
precipitation echos will begin to expand east, it will take
some time for precipitation to reach the ground given low
dewpoints and dry air in the low levels. Rain will fill in at
terminals through 14Z or so with most locations seeing ceilings
and visibilities eventually drop to IFR in rain. Can not rule
out some fog developing as well as very moist air overrides a
healthy snowpack this afternoon.

Winds aloft are very strong early this morning with some sites
gusting to 30+ knots and other sites with lighter winds
experiencing low level wind sheer. Added the LLWS at CAK/YNG and
will continue at TOL until surface winds come up more. Southwest
winds will remain breezy through the day before shifting to the
west this evening with a cold front. This should usher in
drier air and help to scour out some of the lower ceilings and
visibilities.

OUTLOOK...Occasional non-VFR Wednesday evening through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will increase this evening through Wednesday morning
between 15 to 25 knots. We have issued a Small Craft Advisory for
ice free areas of the near shore water. A cold front will shift
winds late Wednesday to the west-northwest 15 to 25 knots through
Wednesday night. A strong Arctic front will move across the lake
late Thursday with strong gusty west-northwest winds between 20 to
30 knots. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed
for the end of the week as well as possible Heavy Freezing Spray
alerts. There will be a brief delay in ice formation but Arctic air
for the end of the week and weekend will likely cause rapid ice
formation again. Strong winds will be around over the lake for much
of the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Riley
NEAR TERM...KEC/Riley
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Griffin
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