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FXUS61 KCLE 060202
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1002 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching the area from the northwest will move
through the area tonight into early Saturday morning. High
pressure will enter the Great Lakes region on Saturday and
remain over the area through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Most of the near-term forecast remains valid. However, freshened
POPs and QPF through the predawn hours of Saturday morning once
again. Still expect the surface cold front to sweep southeast
through our CWA between roughly 10 PM EDT this evening and 4 AM
Saturday. However, based on latest observed radar trends and
consensus of short-term model guidance, the coverage of showers
and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front should be
isolated at most. Ahead of the cold front, a remnant outflow
boundary from earlier thunderstorms extended from roughly
western Lake County to central Stark County at 10 PM. This
eastward-moving outflow boundary and the cold front will be the
primary lifting mechanisms for any shower or thunderstorm
development over the next several hours as these boundaries
likely encounter weak to moderate instability, including
surface-based CAPE, amidst moderate effective bulk shear. The
main threats from any thunderstorm will be frequent lightning,
brief downpours, small hail, and strong wind gusts. Given
boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling, feel the
threat of damaging gusts from thunderstorms has ended. In fact,
SPC no longer has our CWA in a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms tonight.

Previous Discussion...
A fairly weak cold front will push into the area from the
northwest tonight. This may fire some additional iso/sct
convection, however the timing is unfavorable with a largely
stabilizing atmosphere. Have maintained some slight chance pops
through the evening expanding eastward with the front, but
diminishing after midnight.

High pressure will build into the area late tonight through
Saturday night, providing dry conditions and mainly clear skies.
Temps will be a bit cooler on Saturday, especially downwind of
the lake with winds out of the north-northwest. Highs will range
from the mid/upper 70s downwind of the lake to the low 80s
inland and west. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A large upper level ridge will slowly shift east over the
eastern United States during this period while amplifying with
time. A remnant tropical system is progged to move north through
the Mississippi Valley region Monday and Monday night on the
west side of the upper level ridge. Surface high pressure will
build south across the local area Sunday and to the east Monday
and Tuesday. No moisture is expected across the area through
Tuesday morning but the effects of the tropical system will
begin to move into the western areas of the local forecast area
by Tuesday afternoon. Depending on the exact track of the storm
system, the location of any precipitation could be shifted
further east with time Tuesday. Otherwise, as high pressure
shifts off the Atlantic Coast, strong warm air advection will
gradually develop Monday into Tuesday. Highs on Sunday will be
in the upper 60s east to upper 70s west. Monday will see highs
in the middle 70s east to middle 80s west and Tuesday will see
middle to upper 80s east to lower to middle 90s west. Lows
Sunday night expected to be in the upper 40s extreme east and
lower 50s elsewhere. Monday night will see the warming trend as
the heat wave develops with lows in the upper 50s east to lower
and middle 60s central and west. So, for a day, summer will
arrive since dewpoint temperatures will climb into the middle
60s; especially west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level ridge over the area will begin to shift east fairly
quickly Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will allow an upper level
trough to move east into the area Tuesday night with broad upper
level troughiness expected through Thursday night and reinforcing
upper level trough Friday. Remnants of the tropical system are
expected to move north through the central Great Lakes Tuesday night
and merge with low pressure over the central Great Lakes Wednesday.
A trailing cold front will sweep east over the area Wednesday but
will then become nearly stationary Wednesday and warm air advection
continues over the area. High pressure will build southeast across
the area from the northwest by Friday. This will bring slightly
cooler temperatures by the end of the week. An upper level shortwave
trough will approach from the west Friday and bring a threat for
some showers and thunderstorms to the area. Highs through the
period in the warm air advection will be in the middle 80s
Wednesday, lower to middle 80s Thursday, and 70s Friday. Lows will
drop into the middle to upper 60s east to lower to middle 70s
central and west Tuesday night, mid 60s Wednesday night, and upper
50s to lower 60s Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mainly VFR expected next 24-hours. Isolated to scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms remain possible along and ahead of a
surface cold front poised to sweep southeast through our region
between roughly 02Z and 08Z/Sat. Small hail, brief/erratic
surface wind gusts up to 40 knots, and brief MVFR
ceilings/visibility may accompany these storms. Surface winds
trend southwesterly ahead of the cold front and northwesterly
behind the front, while surface wind speeds should average 5 to
10 knots. Behind the front, surface high pressure builds from
the Upper Midwest and central Canada. Of note, residual low-
level moisture from recent rainfall and weak surface winds may
allow patchy fog to form around daybreak Saturday. This may
especially be the case in northwest OH, including KTOL.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southwest flow on the lake will gradually shift around to the
northwest tonight but then shift back to the southwest tomorrow.
Another cold front will move south across the lake Saturday night
and shift the flow back to the north. Light north flow will persist
through Sunday night and become easterly for Monday and southerly by
Tuesday and Wednesday. The southerly flow will increase Tuesday as
the remnant tropical system moves north into the central Great
Lakes. As the low passes to the north, winds will diminish and
become westerly by Wednesday night and continues Thursday. Wind
speeds Tuesday will be highly dependent on the track of the tropical
system and the strength of the system as it becomes extra tropical.
Up until Monday night, not expecting any headline winds or waves but
there is the possibility we may need a small craft advisory
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Lombardy
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