FXUS61 KCLE 250804
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
404 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019
High pressure across Quebec and stretching across the Great
Lakes will provide another day and a half of fair weather to the
local area. Low pressure tracking from the Canadian Rockies east
to Ontario early this week will take bring a warm front north
across the area Monday night and a cold front across Tuesday
night. High pressure will shift across the Ohio Valley Wednesday
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
There will be clear skies to start early this morning. With the
eastward shift of the high, now across Quebec, the flow is now
more east-southeasterly and the lake cloud cover will be
shifting across the lake and toward MI. Cirrus remains well to
our west until tonight. Therefore, a few cumulus will be what
dots the sky today. The southeast flow is rather drying and the
coverage of cumulus will be less than days prior. Again guidance
has been running low on expected high temperatures and have kept
the temperatures for today several degrees warmer. This is
similar to what we had going for today. Mid and upper 70s for
most after a morning start in the 50s. Will have another night
in the 50s tonight across the east, but enough of a southeast
wind will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer.
Monday introduces the next opportunity for a few showers across
the I-75 corridor and possibly to the central highlands. Surge
of deeper moisture will return with a warm front Monday
afternoon/night. Under this initial corridor we will have
scattered showers. Less confidence in how far east these showers
will make it before evening. Temperatures will generally be in
the mid 70s with extensive cloud cover expected.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough is expected to move northeast into our area,
advecting moisture and forcing showers across the area Monday
night and into Tuesday. A large scale trough is situated over
the upper midwest and will work its way east on Tuesday and
Wednesday with the trough axis through the lower Great Lakes by
00Z Thursday. This will cause a deepening low over western
Ontario with a cold front extending through the Great Lakes
region. A line of thunderstorms and showers are expected to
develop ahead of this cold front Tuesday afternoon and move east
through northern Ohio Tuesday evening into the overnight hours.
A cold will closely follow, allowing mostly dry air to filter
in on Wednesday and Wednesday night. There may be just enough
remaining moisture for lake effect rain to persist over NW PA
and NE OH Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect rain showers may still persist through the daytime
hours on Thursday. A weak upper level trough is expected to move
east through the area sometime on Saturday or Sunday, though
there is substantial uncertainty with regard to the timing of
this this feature. Precipitation is expected to develop
downstream this wave on Friday or Saturday. Favoring the faster
Canadian/GFS solution and have chance pops Friday night into
Saturday morning. The ECMWF has a much slower solution with
precipitation moving through Saturday and into Sunday.
Followed primarily the ECMWF for timing through the long term
which shows a cold front dropping south across the region
Saturday. This could bring a shower or two to the area although
models don't show a great deal of moisture with the boundary.
Aside from that, high pressure will dominate the region. Highs
mainly mid and upper 70s.
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A third day in a row with high pressure controlling the local
weather with only fair weather afternoon cumulus in the
forecast. Flow will be more east-southeast today as the high has
shifted northeast of the area. This will be a drying flow and
expect fewer cu than yesterday. Winds for CLE/ERI will tend to
be northeasterly for a time this afternoon with a minor lake
breeze. Some cirrus will be headed our way Sunday night.
OUTLOOK...Non VFR possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.
Winds have decreased to around 10 to 15 knots and will meander
between east and southeast today over the lake today. For this
reason, we have allowed the Small Craft Advisory to expire and
am not anticipating needing another one today. High pressure
over eastern Quebec will continue to slowly move eastward and
weaken as a developing low over the northern Atlantic overtakes
it. The eastward moving high pressure will allow winds to veer
to the south Monday night into Tuesday morning. Low pressure of
around 995 mb develops over western Ontario by Tuesday morning,
increasing the pressure gradient over the lake and allowing
winds of 15 to 20 knots Monday night into Tuesday, with peak
winds around 12Z on Tuesday. Since it's going to be offshore
flow, am not anticipating needing a Small Craft Advisory for any
of our nearshore zones. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
Tuesday and into Wednesday before a cold front sweeps through
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure
passes to the south, keeping winds below 15 knots through the
end of the week.
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