FXUS64 KCRP 271136 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
636 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017
Updated for 12z aviation.
MVFR flight conditions will continue through the mid to late
morning hours before returning to VFR levels. South to southeast
winds will be gusty this afternoon most notably at CRP/VCT/ALI.
Low clouds will return tonight across South Texas and brought MVFR
ceilings back to the terminals around 03z/04z at CRP/VCT/ALI and
closer to 08z at LRD.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 437 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Main forecast concern again will be the heat and humidity today
across South Texas.
Upper level ridge will be suppressed further southward today as
upper trough moves into the Plains. Despite this, another hot and
humid day can be expected today across South Texas. Highs should
top 100 degrees over the Rio Grande with upper 80s to lower 90s
over the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Dewpoints
may actually mix out a little better today, especially across the
western parts of the area. This may prevent widespread heat index
values of 110 degrees from occurring. A SPS for heat index values
between 105-109 will be issued for the central and western parts
of the area.
For tonight, low stratus should build back in across South Texas.
Warm and muggy conditions will continue with lows only falling
into the mid/upper 70s with low 80s along the immediate coast. A
shortwave trough will be moving across Mexico this evening which
will likely generate some mountain convection. These storms will
progress eastward and could approach the international border.
Confidence in this occurring is low at this time and will not
include storms in the forecast yet.
On Sunday, a slow moving frontal boundary will be moving into
Central and South Central Texas. This boundary will serve as a
focus for shower and thunderstorm activity. Though the bulk of
this activity should remain north of the region on Sunday during
the day, some storms could drift into the northwest and northern
parts of the area between 18z and 00z. However, the best chances
for showers and storms across South Texas will begin Sunday night.
LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
A weak cold front will drift south across the state over the holiday
weekend. The main upper level trough centered well to the north will
not offer much drive to the frontal boundary, and models continue to
indicate the front will stall to the north or across the region
early next week. Deep moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will
occur, with PWAT values near +2 sigma Sunday night through Monday.
The frontal boundary will provide a focus for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop, and with high moisture values
across the region weak storm motion, anticipate moderate to locally
heavy rainfall to occur Sunday night through Monday night. The
actual location the frontal boundary stalls across will greatly
impact the areas that receive the highest rainfall amounts, and
this forecasted area may shift around over the next few updates.
However, current QPF amounts for Sunday through Memorial day total
generally between 1.5 and 3 inches across the region.
Going into Tuesday, shortwaves rounding the main longwave trough
will traverse across the region, continuing rain chances across
the region. During the mid to late week models begin to diverge.
The ECMWF solution provides a wetter forecast with weak troughing
remaining across the region, while the GFS tries to develop weak
ridging aloft with a deeper trough moving over the west coast and
Rockies. However, both solutions continue to bring weak disturbances
out from NE Mexico and across the region, so chances for at least
isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through
the end of the week.
Temperatures will be cooler on Monday (highs lower to mid 80s) with
overcast skies and expected rainfall. Afternoon temperatures will
gradually warm by the mid to late week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 92 79 92 76 84 / 10 10 10 30 60
Victoria 93 78 92 73 83 / 10 10 20 50 70
Laredo 102 79 99 75 84 / 10 10 10 30 60
Alice 99 78 96 75 85 / 10 10 10 30 60
Rockport 89 81 89 76 84 / 10 10 10 30 60
Cotulla 102 79 98 74 85 / 10 10 20 50 60
Kingsville 96 79 95 76 86 / 10 10 10 30 60
Navy Corpus 89 81 89 77 84 / 10 10 10 30 60
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