FXUS64 KCRP 162047
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
247 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)...
Basically another temperature forecast although there is a need to
talk about the upper trough tonight and Monday then the potential
for fog Monday night. With the lack of any reasonable onshore flow,
the upper disturbance, with most of its energy north of the CWFA,
will produce some mid and high clouds (12000 feet or higher) and any
water droplets which fall through these clouds should evaporate
into the drier lower and mid levels (below 12000 feet) before
reaching the ground. Just put a 5 POP over the extreme northwest
CWFA just in case heavier precip occurs which will reach ground.
More clouds Monday with some decrease in cloud cover late Monday
afternoon farther west with the passage of the trough. Onshore flow
tries to get a bit better on Monday night and both the meso models
as well as model soundings are showing fog for Monday night. Did put
in at least patchy fog all inland areas with areas of fog most of
northern and central portions of the CWFA. Lows tonight and Monday
basically used a blend of CONMOS and BCONMOS with adjustments.
Temperature forecast Monday night tricky as some clouds will keep
temperatures up but also expect as fog forms temperatures will fall.
Went with a consensus forecast here, but leaned closer to the GFS
than the NAM.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The period begins with the potential for patchy to areas of fog
affecting inland South Texas Tuesday morning. Fog is expected to
lift across the area by mid-morning. An upper level shortwave
trough currently located over northwestern Mexico is progged to
move across northern Texas on Tuesday. A weak coastal trough will
also be moving through South Texas on Tuesday with moisture
increasing over the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Isolated
showers will be possible across the coastal waters on Tuesday and
across the Coastal Plains Tuesday night. A Pacific surface cold
front associated to the upper level shortwave trough will then
slide through the region on Wednesday with drying occurring in its
wake as it pushes the low level moisture to the east and away
from the region. Ridging aloft and at the surface will maintain
quiet, dry and cool conditions Thursday and through the weekend.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to develop across the
offshore waters Thursday afternoon due to a tighter pressure
gradient and a strong northwesterly flow aloft. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are likely to continue through Friday
morning. Winds are expected to weaken Friday afternoon into Friday
night and shift back to an onshore flow by Saturday morning.
Moisture and clouds will gradually increase across the region late
in the weekend. Slightly above to above normal high temperatures
will persist across South Texas through the entire long term
period, with normal to slightly above normal low temperatures
expected during the same time frame.
Rather benign marine forecast with light winds (mainly onshore)
through Sunday, then more certain onshore but around 10 knots or
even less Monday night. One to two foot seas.
A weak onshore flow will persist across the coastal waters
Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated showers will be possible Tuesday
into Tuesday night. A Pacific cold front will move across the
waters Wednesday evening, and SCA conditions are likely to
develop across the offshore waters Thursday afternoon and continue
through Friday morning. Winds will weaken Friday afternoon into
Friday night, but will become weak to moderate on Saturday. Winds
will shift to an onshore flow Saturday and a moderate onshore flow
is expected to continue through the weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 45 69 54 71 55 / 0 10 0 10 20
Victoria 43 70 47 69 53 / 0 10 0 20 30
Laredo 47 72 49 70 51 / 0 0 0 10 10
Alice 42 71 50 72 52 / 0 10 0 10 10
Rockport 48 66 52 69 55 / 0 0 0 20 30
Cotulla 45 70 44 69 48 / 0 10 0 10 10
Kingsville 43 71 51 72 54 / 0 0 0 10 10
Navy Corpus 52 68 57 71 57 / 0 0 0 10 20
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