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FXUS64 KCRP 082317 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
617 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR with a brief period of MVFR CIGs across the coastal
region between 06Z-14Z. Gusty S-SE winds this afternoon to
decouple from east to west, yet maintain winds speeds overnight
of 10-15 KTs. A 25-30 KT S-SE-ly LLJ is expected to develop
overnight, but with surface winds to remain slightly elevated, not
including LLWS in TAFs. Winds will mix down to the surface around
14Z with gusts of 20-25 KTs expected through the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Heat index values as of 3 PM range from 105 to 113 across much of
South Texas and heat will be the main story for the region
through the short term forecast as a large upper ridge strengthens
over the state. Radiosonde observations from this morning
indicated that there was a weakness or wave in the mid-levels of
this ridge today, but as this feature shifts over Mexico during
the next 24 to 36 hours this will allow for afternoon temperatures
across the Brush Country to heat a few degrees above what is
being observed this afternoon. In other words, only some modest
relief from the heat is expected after sunset today with lows in
the upper 70s to low 80s with highs again climbing above 100 for
most areas west of Highway 281 tomorrow. Similar conditions are
expected again Thursday night.

Dry conditions are generally expected to prevail through Thursday
night, but speed convergence near the coast may result in a
streamer shower or two tonight and Thursday night. Otherwise, loss
of heating and the relaxation of the surface pressure gradient
during the overnight hours may allow for some light patchy fog to
develop across portions of the Coastal Bend tonight and Thursday
night.

LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)...

A ridge remains over the area through the duration of the long
period. This continues to bring hot temperatures throughout the
area, and will continue to do so through next week. Temperatures
consistently reach 100 or above inland on Friday and into next
week. Heat index values will be high each day. On Friday the
majority of the area looks to have heat index values from 109
to 115. For the weekend and into next week heat index values will be
in the range of 105-109 with some areas seeing higher values.
Advisory conditions look to be a possibility for each day during the
long term period.

Winds will be from the southeast on Friday, gradually shifting to
S/SW winds heading into the latter part of the weekend. A strong low
that develops well north of the area will lead to the development of
more moderate southerly winds heading into Sunday.

MARINE...
Winds may briefly reach Small Craft Advisory criteria across
portions of the Intracoastal Waterway and nearshore waters south of
Port Aransas this afternoon. Light to moderate south to southeast
flow will continue through Saturday, becoming moderate heading
into Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 80 94 80 96 79 / 10 10 0 0 0
Victoria 79 95 78 98 78 / 10 10 0 0 0
Laredo 80 103 80 106 78 / 10 0 0 0 0
Alice 78 99 78 100 77 / 10 0 0 0 0
Rockport 82 91 82 94 81 / 10 10 0 0 0
Cotulla 79 104 78 105 77 / 10 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 79 96 79 98 78 / 10 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 82 90 82 92 81 / 10 10 0 0 0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening For the following
zones: Coastal Nueces...Coastal San Patricio...Duval...
Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland San Patricio...Jim
Wells...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Webb.

GM...None.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION
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