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FXUS64 KCRP 261122
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
622 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation and marine discussions below for the latest updates.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR conditions across the eastern 3/4th of the CWA are expected
to lift/sct to VFR by mid morning. VFR conditions are expected
through the remainder of the TAF period. A dryline will be moving
east across the area today leading to sfc winds shifting to the
west then northwest. Sfc winds will strengthen by mid morning with
gusts to around 25-30KT. This will diminish the LLWS. A cold
front is expected to move through S TX this evening leading to a
weak to moderate north wind. This will be short-lived as winds
veer to the northeast late tonight into early Thu morning as the
sfc high shifts east.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong southerly winds continue across the southern bays this
morning and am expecting the winds to weaken, but a few hours
later than previously anticipated. Therefore, extended the SCA for
the southern bays until 9 AM. Kept the 11 AM expiration for the
Coastal Waters.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

A dryline is forecast to move eastward across S TX today as a cold
front moves southward into the Hill Country. The dryline is expected
to reach the coast by late morning. Very dry conditions are expected
behind the dryline along with 20FT winds shifting to the west then
northwest and strengthening. This will lead to critical fire weather
conditions across the Rio Grande Plains to western Coastal Plains.
Therefore have issued a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon for the
western CWA. Also due to the W-NW wind at the sfc and aloft combined
with a very dry airmass, mx temps today will be hot with mid 90s at
the coast to around 100 along the Rio Grande. The cold front is
expected to move into the northern CWA early evening and move
through all of the CWA by late evening. Min temps tonight will be
cooler with lows in the mid 50s north to mid 60s south. The cold
front will be short-lived as it quickly exits the area by Thu
morning with onshore flow redeveloping. However, max temps Thu will
be a tad cooler than today with highs in the mid 80s east to mid 90s
west. The environment will be too dry for any significant precip.

MARINE (Today through Thursday)...

Strong southerly winds this morning will weaken through late morning
and dropping below advisory levels. A cold front will move across
the waters this evening leading to a strong north wind tonight
before weakening and becoming onshore once again Thu.

LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...

Temperatures quickly rise again towards the end of the work week.
Highs will climb to around 100 degrees over the Rio Grande and Brush
Country with upper 80s to lower 90s over the Victoria Crossroads.
Onshore winds will increase Friday into Saturday as low pressure
strengthens to the northwest of the area. Winds will approach SCA
levels on Friday, but will be more likely on Saturday with further
strengthening of winds and building seas. A strong upper level system
will move out of the Four Corners Region on Saturday and into the
Plains by Sunday morning. The associated cold front will approach
South Texas early Sunday morning. Models are in decent agreement in
pushing the front off the coast around 12z. Moisture will pool along
the boundary bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Highest pops will be
located northeast of I-37 where the deepest moisture will reside.
Showers and storms will quickly exit the area as the front pushes
through the region. Northerly winds will also pick up behind the
front with additional SCAs likely over the Gulf Waters on Sunday.
Highs on Sunday will be much cooler, generally at or below season
normals. Temps will only be in the mid 80s out west to middle and
upper 70s across the northeast. A warming trend will commence on
Monday and continue into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 99 63 86 73 92 / 10 0 0 0 10
Victoria 93 56 85 70 91 / 10 0 0 10 10
Laredo 101 63 96 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 10
Alice 100 58 91 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 10
Rockport 93 63 83 75 85 / 10 0 0 0 10
Cotulla 98 57 93 70 99 / 0 0 0 10 10
Kingsville 99 61 89 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 10
Navy Corpus 94 66 84 75 86 / 10 0 0 0 10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this
evening For the following zones: Duval...Jim Wells...La
Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Webb.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning For the
following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning For the
following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
Aransas.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION/MARINE
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