FXUS64 KCRP 210532
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017
Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 06z TAFs.
VFR conditions expected overnight, except for brief MVFR
visibilities generally west of U.S. 77 and east of S.R. 16 during
the 10-13z Friday period. Predominate VFR conditions afterward
except for brief MVFR conditions near isolated showers and
thunderstorms generally north of U.S. 181 Friday during the mid
morning through mid afternoon period. Light south/variable
overnight/early Friday with a transition to moderate onshore flow
during the mid/late afternoon Friday.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 659 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/
See Aviation below for 00Z TAF update.
VFR prevails across the region. Gusty southeast winds will
decouple and relax this evening. Light, patchy fog can be
anticipated to briefly bring MVFR category vsbys to ALI and VCT
once again during the early morning hours. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail at all terminals through the period. Light winds overnight
will increase again to a moderate, gusty flow during the late
morning into the early afternoon Friday.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Very little convection across South Texas this afternoon. Mainly
due to warmer temperatures at H85 around 20-23C which tends to
inhibit convection. However, moisture remains sufficient and with
a weaker cap to the northeast (generally toward Victoria and to
the east) isolated showers have been able to develop. Will expect
this to be the most we see although a rogue shower along the sea
breeze can not be ruled out. For the most part, most locations
should remain dry under partly cloudy skies. Heat index values
continue to run above 100 degrees, with values across the Coastal
Plains averaging around 105 degrees. A few isolated locations with
values near or slightly above 110 degrees will be possible but
not expected to last too long.
Shear axis across SE and central Texas is expected to lift
farther north tonight, but then return south and west through
Friday. Moisture and instability will still be sufficient to lead
to isolated showers and thunderstorms to be thermally driven,
first over the waters in the morning, then move inland through the
day. With H85 temperatures remaining warm, the focus should
remain across the eastern areas toward the Victoria Crossroads and
northern Coastal Bend. Again, most locations should remain dry
with the extra inhibition.
Temperatures will remain hot, with temperatures ranging from the
low 90s along the immediate coast, to mid to upper 90s across the
Coastal Plains. Farther west into the Brush Country and Rio Grande
Plains, temperatures near 100 to 103 will be possible. Humidity
will make temperatures feel like 105 to 109 degrees during the
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Hot and humid conditions will persist across South Texas this
weekend. Highs will easily top 100 degrees over the western Brush
Country and Rio Grande Plains with mid 90s over the Victoria
Crossroads. Heat index values will be an issue this weekend and heat
advisories may be necessary for parts of the area Saturday and
Sunday. Expect mostly dry conditions this weekend as inverted upper
trough remains to our northeast. A few showers may be possible
though on Saturday over northeast sections. Chances for showers and
storms may slightly increase by the middle part of next as moisture
improves across the area. The moisture increase along with the sea
breeze and daytime heating may be enough for at least isolated
convection. Pops were capped at 20 percent now Tuesday through
Thursday. Very warm to hot conditions will continue through the
middle part of next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 96 77 96 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
Victoria 96 76 96 77 96 / 20 10 20 10 10
Laredo 103 78 105 80 104 / 10 10 0 0 10
Alice 100 75 101 76 101 / 10 10 10 0 10
Rockport 93 81 93 82 93 / 20 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 102 76 104 78 104 / 10 10 0 0 10
Kingsville 98 77 100 78 100 / 10 10 10 0 10
Navy Corpus 94 82 93 83 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
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