FXUS64 KCRP 260124
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
824 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018
Have updated evening and overnight forecast package to capture
current radar trends. Increased pops east and decreased west. Cold
front is now into northern portions of forecast area and will
progress southward through the evening. A few showers linger
behind the front, but PoPs should decrease significantly with
frontal passage. Have made some adjustments to temperatures this
evening as well to account for rain cooled air. Potential for
strong storms should be pretty well over as environment is much
more stable where convection still continues and will move into.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 646 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/
Cold front is progressing southward with showers and thunderstorms
along it. A single supercell is moving through northern Webb
county. Otherwise, most of the activity has been relatively weak.
Will expect this general pattern to continue with a strong storm
or two through the next couple of hours before the activity moves
into a more stable area. Thunderstorm activity should be winding
down by 10 pm or so with showers continuing later.
Thunderstorms will move into VCT area and away from LRD over the
next hour or two. Expect most thunderstorm activity to weaken into
just showers for ALI and CRP, but will monitor for potential TS
mention over the next few hours. Otherwise, expect some MVFR cigs
overnight, but predominantly VFR cigs should occur. Drier
conditions during the day Thursday with increasing cloud bases.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday)...
Keeping an eye to the sky, well more than usual tonight. Watching
some storms develop in advance of the surface cold front to the west
of the region along the higher terrain of the Sierra Madres'. These
storm are expected to grow upscale as they head towards the Rio
Grande River and could ultimately move into extreme western Webb
County by 6PM CDT. The amount of low-level CIN seems to have
vanished recently with breaks in the overcast deck that has hugged
the river valley much of the day. The best moisture pooling is still
right along the Rio Grande Plains but we will be fighting the loss
of daytime heating by the time the surface cold front moves through
the region. Storms could be more elevated in nature. Still thinking
though that the convection along the mountains to the west will
eventually merge with convection developing along the front this
evening as it moves into the Brush Country. Our time frame for any
severe thunderstorms continues to be from 6PM until around 10PM, and
this may be a little generous. Though shear does increase later this
evening a majority of the organization could remain across our
extreme western areas or even just across the boarder into Mexico.
Instability quickly drops off east of the Brush Country. Greatest
threats remain large hail and damaging winds.
Convective outflow from the north along with the cold front should
be enough to get some showery activity to develop across the Coastal
Plains and possibly the Coastal Bend later this evening. Would
settle for a couple tenths of an inch tonight across the Coastal
Front moves off the coast early Thursday morning turning winds to
the north-northeast. Weak isentropic lift still occurring behind the
front may keep some lingering clouds and light rain in place through
the mid-morning hours before drying out completely.
LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Thursday night easterly flow will briefly return to the region.
However, another shortwave will pass in the northwest flow aloft,
bringing a secondary weak cold front/surge of high pressure through
the region Friday morning. Over the weekend a deep upper level low
will dig into the western CONUS. Onshore flow will return Saturday
and strengthen on Sunday, gradually increasing moisture across the
region. Weak shortwaves aloft moving out from northeast Mexico may
allow a few thunderstorms to pop up and move across the Brush
Country on Saturday and Sunday. As moisture increases locally early
next week the deep upper level low will dig into the the Northern
Intermountain/Central Great Basin. Anticipate at least isolated
showers and storms on Monday as impulses eject ahead of the
low/trough. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will also be
possible Tuesday into Wednesday as the main upper level system
gradually tracks further east. Deepening surface low pressure to the
northwest will strengthen onshore flow, potentially bringing Small
Craft Advisory conditions late in the period. Mild, near seasonable
temperatures will persist over the weekend. A gradual warming trend
will develop during Monday through Wednesday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 59 77 59 82 61 / 70 10 10 10 10
Victoria 57 79 54 82 57 / 70 10 10 10 10
Laredo 62 80 64 82 63 / 60 10 10 10 10
Alice 59 80 58 84 59 / 70 10 10 10 10
Rockport 58 75 62 80 64 / 60 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 59 79 59 83 60 / 40 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 61 80 59 84 60 / 70 10 10 10 10
Navy Corpus 63 77 65 80 66 / 60 10 10 10 10
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