FXUS64 KCRP 050240 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
840 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE INVOLVE SKY
COVER AS LOW STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF CONTINUES TO PUSH
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND CONSIDERABLE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SHOULD TEMPER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AND WILL FOREGO
ANY KIND OF FREEZE HEADLINE FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
WHERE LOWS WILL CERTAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA. WILL
ISSUE NEW ZONE PACKAGE SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST INTO NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS/MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AROUND 06-07Z
AND MAKE IT TO A HBV-BEA-PKV LINE BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT THE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL HOLD DURING THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.

ELSEWHERE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
OVER SOUTH TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS PROVIDING A RATHER COOL NIGHT
FOR THE REGION. WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AS WEAK UPGLIDE DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP...NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.
THE GFS IS PROGGING VALUES CONDUCIVE TO LIGHT RAIN...HOWEVER THE
NAM HAS VALUES THAT ARE TOO HIGH TO GENERATE PRECIP. DECIDED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND SHOW 10 POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE GIVEN THE COOL AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER..."SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION" CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING
FCST. A DRY AND COOL SFC RDG AXIS WL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMUP IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS ARE NOW INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IN CONCERT WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SRN STREAM S/WV TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA WL PROVIDE THE
NEXT REAL OPPURTUNITY FOR PCPN. WL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RAISE THESE TO CHC OR EVEN LKLY.
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL EXIST TO MENTION THUNDER DURING
THIS SAME TIME PD. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING A
POTENT PACIFIC NORTHWEST S/WV SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON TUE. THIS
WL BLAST A STRONG COLD FNT THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN ON TUE. WL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR FROPA AND
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH WED IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG
FNT. A QUICK RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED BY THU AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS RAPIDLY EWD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 40 56 42 68 50 / 10 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 33 54 35 67 42 / 0 10 10 10 0
LAREDO 40 57 43 72 51 / 0 10 0 0 0
ALICE 37 55 39 69 47 / 10 10 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 42 55 45 67 51 / 10 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 36 53 37 72 45 / 0 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 39 56 40 69 49 / 10 10 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 45 56 47 67 53 / 10 10 10 10 0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JAR/19...SHORT TERM
TT/89...AVIATION/LONG TERM

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