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FXUS64 KCRP 171144
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
644 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Will update the forecast to add isolated showers over portions of
the MSA early this morning owing in part to recent radar output and
PWAT values. Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the
12z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

A mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings early this morning over the Coastal
Plains followed by VFR areawide. Weak onshore flow early this
morning becoming moderate and breezy by afternoon and continuing
through early evening. A mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings expected
again after 06z Thursday, along with light onshore flow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 418 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

An upper level high pressure system is expected to persist over
the SRN 1/2 of the CONUS during the period, per deterministic
output. The GFS/ECMWF/NAM predict PWAT values to remain
near/below normal during the period. Anticipate no significant
precipitation during the period owing to the upper ridge and
insufficient moisture. Maximum Heat Index values 105-109F expected
today over the CWA, with values around 110 briefy, mainly over
portions of the Southern Plains (and thus issued an SPS.)

LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...

Mid to upper level ridging will remain in place over the region
through the weekend. Above normal temperatures and generally rain-
free conditions are expected through the first half of the weekend
as limited moisture and subsidence continues. However, can not rule
out an isolated shower or thunderstorm with the sea breeze each
afternoon. Warm temperatures with heat indices of 105 to 109 degrees
are expected Friday and Saturday afternoon. Breezy conditions will
be possible each afternoon through the weekend as broad high
pressure across the Gulf and lower pressure upstream persist. The
500mb sub-tropical ridge will start to break down a bit early next
week as an upper level trough moves around the ridge. A mid to upper
level weakness develops early next week and should lead to an uptick
in rain chances Monday and Tuesday.

MARINE...

WaveWatch sea state, onshore flow, and full moon suggest a
moderate risk of rip currents today and Thursday. Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions will be possible through the weekend
as moderate onshore flow prevails. Wave heights are expected to
remain between 3 to 4 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can
be expected on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 94 79 95 79 94 / 10 10 10 0 10
Victoria 93 77 94 76 94 / 10 10 10 0 10
Laredo 104 79 105 78 104 / 0 0 10 0 0
Alice 98 77 99 77 99 / 0 10 10 0 0
Rockport 90 82 90 81 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 103 77 103 77 103 / 10 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 96 78 97 77 97 / 0 10 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 91 82 90 82 90 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION
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