FXUS64 KCRP 191001
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
501 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019
.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Sufficient moisture is in place today for isolated to scattered
showers or thunderstorms as PWATs from GOES imagery show nearly
2.0 inches across the the Gulf waters and coastal region. With
remnants of Imelda moving to the northeast, a weak boundary is
expected to slowly push south through Central Texas. Will expect
best coverage for showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
Victoria Crossroads region due to proximity, while farther west,
isolated activity is expected. Moisture should be sufficient
enough along the sea breeze to allow for isolated showers/storms
across the Brush Country this late afternoon/early evening. Will
expect activity to diminish this evening with the loss of heating,
only to redevelop across the gulf waters after midnight. Moisture
will still linger for Friday to keep isolated to scattered
coverage as well.
Temperatures will continue to run warm, with highs in the low to
mid 90s across the Coastal Plains, and near or slightly above 100
degrees for areas generally west of Highway 281. Heat index values
are expected to range between 105 to 109 degrees area-wide, with
locations across the southern Coastal Bend briefly reaching 110
degrees at times in the afternoon. Friday, temperatures should be
a degree or two cooler mainly due to the increased moisture and
expected cloud cover.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Modest moisture levels will remain over the coastal waters into the
coastal plains late Friday night into Saturday. The models depict a
weak mid level shear axis over the western Gulf of Mexico will drift
west into the Coastal Bend Saturday. Expect isolated convection will
form over the coastal waters Friday night and move inland before
daybreak with a slightly better chance for convection during the day
as the weak shear axis moves inland.
Rain chances will be limited for Sunday through Tuesday as the mid
level ridge builds into the region from the northeast. Enough
moisture will linger along the coast to continue to show a slight
chance of convection with the sea breeze each day. Dry conditions
are forecast for Wednesday as region will be underneath the weak
ridge between a weak mid level low over the western Gulf of Mexico
and a strong upper low over Arizona. Afternoon heat index values
will range from 105 to 109 degrees over the Coastal Bend into the
Victoria Crossroads Sunday through Tuesday.
A moderate onshore flow will continue today through Friday night
with a general weak to moderate flow persisting over the weekend
into Monday. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are expected
today, with isolated to scattered activity Friday. Good moisture
levels along with a weak upper level disturbance will lead to
scattered showers or storms over the marine areas Saturday. The
convection will be more isolated for Sunday through Tuesday as a
mid level ridge builds into the region.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 96 78 94 78 92 / 20 10 20 20 30
Victoria 95 77 92 76 92 / 40 20 30 20 30
Laredo 101 78 100 77 98 / 0 20 0 10 10
Alice 99 77 97 76 95 / 20 10 20 20 30
Rockport 92 80 92 80 90 / 30 20 40 20 30
Cotulla 102 78 100 77 99 / 10 20 0 10 10
Kingsville 99 77 97 77 94 / 20 10 20 20 30
Navy Corpus 92 80 90 81 89 / 20 10 30 20 30
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