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FXUS64 KCRP 211559 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
959 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...Cold front continues to push southward into the
area. The front has reached the north side of Victoria. The ARW
and NAM models seem to have the best handle on the timing of the
front. Cold front was located from Victoria to south of Pleasanton
to north of Uvalde then down to Eagle Pass. Latest MSAS analysis
shows strongest pressure rises occurring west of Del Rio. ARW/NAM
shows this portion of the cold front will surge southeast through
the Brush Country this afternoon. Will show temperatures falling
into the 50s by the afternoon for most of the region except the
southern Coastal Bend. Parents may need to send a jacket to school
for the kids for when they get out this afternoon.

Expect the front will continue push into the coastal waters and
stall about 40-50 nm offshore. Latest NAM and ARW show this
boundary will be stationary in this location on Thursday. Adjusted
high temperatures down a category for Thursday. Made no
adjustments to current PoPs at this time. Elevated showers with
embedded thunderstorms will remain possible today into tonight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 603 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

See .AVIATION discussion for 12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...

Front will bring showers, starting at KVCT this morning then with
the front moving south during the day, could also have thunder
mainly at KALI and KCRP. At this time, do expect a brief
improvement in CIGS at KCRP and KALI later this morning as winds
diminish daytime heating ensues. Should have VFR at KLRD no later
than 15Z and through about 22/01Z before CIGS fall behind the
fropa. Do not expect much improvement in CIGS at KVCT as the front
will move through that terminal by 16Z. CIGS will fall behind the
front and will be at least IFR and could not rule out lower
values. North winds behind the boundary, gusty likely at KCRP,
with rain or drizzle at times behind the boundary overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 80 48 55 51 75 / 50 60 50 40 10
Victoria 73 44 52 48 75 / 70 60 50 30 10
Laredo 81 46 56 49 71 / 30 40 40 40 20
Alice 79 46 53 50 74 / 50 60 50 40 10
Rockport 72 50 57 53 73 / 50 60 40 30 10
Cotulla 73 44 51 47 70 / 70 40 50 40 20
Kingsville 83 48 55 50 76 / 40 60 50 40 10
Navy Corpus 74 52 57 54 75 / 40 70 40 30 10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
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