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FXUS64 KCRP 232101
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
401 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...

Updated NPW to add Webb County to the Heat Advisory and will
retain the 00z Sunday expiration. Anticipate at least 105-109F
maximum Heat Index values over the CWA Sunday. Expect the CWA/MSA
to remain under the influence of the E-W upper ridge tonight.
However, the upper inverted trough (currently depicted over the
SWRN Gulf/Bay of Campeche region and with convection east of the
N-S axis) is expected to continue to move WWD and provide a
significant influence by Sunday night. GFS ensemble mean places
the upper trough axis near the coast by 06z Monday. Based on the
anticipated trough axis position/timing and associted moisture
increase, decided not to add convection to the MSA until 00z
Monday and not over the CWA until 06z Monday. Deepening low
pressure over the WRN TX will maintain onshore flow. Expect at
least SCEC conditions over the Coastal MSA during the period when
considering NAM 0-1km lapse rates/925-mb wind.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

Moisture will increase across the region on Monday as an inverted
mid/upper level trough moves across South Texas and northeast Mexico
on Monday. With precipitable water values climbing over 2 inches
again (2.0-2.3) on Monday, anticipate isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms to be able to develop during the day. The
disturbance aloft will swiftly traverse westward Monday night into
early Tuesday. Weak ridging will slowly build into the area during
the week. Higher moisture lingers across the region during the
early part of the upcoming week though, and an isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible. Anticipate most of this convection
to be limited to streamer showers in the morning, with a sea-breeze
thunderstorm possible in the afternoons on Wednesday and Thursday.
By Friday into the weekend drier air will move into the area, and
suppressive ridging aloft will keep the end of the week dry.

Higher moisture over the region will keep afternoon temperatures
slightly below to near normal early in the period. Temperatures
will rise during the mid to late week, especially across western
counties, as drier air and riding takes better hold of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 79 91 77 90 77 / 10 10 20 30 20
Victoria 78 92 77 92 76 / 10 10 10 20 10
Laredo 78 101 79 97 78 / 0 10 10 20 20
Alice 77 94 77 94 76 / 0 10 20 30 20
Rockport 82 88 80 90 79 / 10 10 20 30 10
Cotulla 77 101 77 96 76 / 0 10 10 20 20
Kingsville 79 94 78 92 78 / 0 10 20 30 20
Navy Corpus 81 87 80 90 80 / 10 10 20 30 20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the following
zones: Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Inland Kleberg...
Inland Nueces...Jim Wells...Webb.

GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
LB/84...LONG TERM
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