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FXUS64 KCRP 191141 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
641 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered to occasionally broken stratocu will
continue to move north across the coastal plains with a low level
flow of around 25 knots. Surface winds have remained elevated with
only some patchy fog near and north of BKS. Expect periodic MVFR
ceilings will affect coastal plains through 14-15Z. Mixing will
lead to gusty south winds developing by 15Z and increase to the
southeast over the Coastal Bend as an area of low pressure over
southwest Texas strengthens the gradient over the region. Expect
wind gusts will approach 30 knots at CRP. Gusty winds will move
inland this evening and affect LRD from 02-09Z. Winds will be
elevated again tonight with MVFR ceilings possible mainly in the
VCT area by 09Z Monday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

The mid to upper level ridge will weaken over the area today as
a short wave trough, over the high plains of West Texas early this
morning, swings through the southern plains of Oklahoma and north
Texas. Dry air mass will hold over the region through the period
with the upper ridge building back in from the northwest as the
short wave trough continues to move eastward on Monday. An area
of low pressure will deepen over the Trans Pecos region this
afternoon. This will lead to a strengthening pressure gradient
over South Texas. Expect winds will increase to windy levels for
the Coastal Bend and breezy elsewhere. Southeast winds will
maintain high enough humidity for heat index values to range from
105 to 109 for all areas except along the immediate coast. Breezy
to windy conditions will linger into the evening hours then slowly
subside during the overnight hours. Elevated winds should inhibit
any fog formation over inland areas late tonight. Winds will be
diminished on Monday as a frontal boundary sags into central
Texas. Could see heat index values approach advisory levels over
the Coastal Bend Monday afternoon.

MARINE (Today through Monday)...

The strengthening pressure gradient due to a low pressure area
over southwest Texas will lead to SCA conditions over the southern
bays and near shore waters this afternoon through the evening
hours. SCEC conditions will exist across the remainder of the
marine zones today into tonight. A frontal boundary moving into
central Texas on Monday will lead to less wind over the coastal
waters.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...

The upper level disturbance/trough will continue moving across the
Ohio Valley and eastward early this week. The progged frontal
boundary across Central Texas Tuesday will stall before reaching the
area, then washes out on Wednesday. Models indicate slightly less
moisture pooling than before across the region during the mid week,
but can still see some isolated convection develop on Tuesday and
Wednesday across portions of the Victoria Crossroads, northern
Coastal Bend, and coastal waters. Seeing better alignment between
models during the mid to late week, with the GFS now closer to the
ECMWF. The upper level ridge can be expected to build further east
over the state, keeping more suppressive and rain-free conditions on
Thursday and Friday. Weak perturbations riding under the ridge
along with a return of higher tropical moisture may allow for some
isolated showers or thunderstorms to pop up across the eastern third
of the CWA over the upcoming weekend.

Hot, slightly above normal temperatures will prevail through most of
the week. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler over the
upcoming weekend as the center of the upper level ridge shifts
further north of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 96 78 96 77 94 / 10 0 10 10 10
Victoria 97 77 97 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
Laredo 105 80 104 78 102 / 0 0 10 10 10
Alice 99 76 100 76 98 / 0 0 10 10 10
Rockport 91 83 92 80 92 / 10 10 10 10 20
Cotulla 102 77 101 76 100 / 0 0 10 10 10
Kingsville 98 78 98 77 97 / 0 0 10 10 10
Navy Corpus 90 82 92 81 91 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CDT this
evening For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay
to Port Aransas out 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION
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