FXUS61 KCTP 050624
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
124 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SECOND SHORTWAVE HAS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS WAVE
ON SATURDAY DID. MUCH OF THE RADAR RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN PA SEEM
TO BE ALOFT AT THIS POINT...BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN TRYING TO MOISTEN
UP THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE DRYING NERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR ANYWHERE BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD
CO TO PICK UP ANOTHER HALF INCH OF SNOW. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN JUST
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST NR ZERO CHC OF
ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE SNOW NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE. TEMPS ON TRACK
TO DIP TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTH...TO NR 30F OVR THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH CALM WIND...HAS ALLOWED
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN PA...WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL ARND DAWN. MCLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY
RAD FOG ACROSS THE N MTNS TOWARDS DAWN. HRRR SHOWS SFC RH/S
DROPPING TO NR 100PCT UP THERE BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY SHSN IN THE SRN MTS WILL DISSIPATE AND SKIES
WILL EVEN GET BRIGHTER THERE LATER IN THE DAY AFTER THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST THAN NORTHEAST. A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THIS PACKAGE.

LEFT MENTION OF SNOW IN FAR NORTHERN PA FOR TUE...AS NEXT FRONT
DROPS SOUTHWARD.

TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW TUE NIGHT...AS SUPPORT FOR SNOW ALONG
FRONT WEAKENS.

DID TAKE OUT SNOW FOR WED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT WENT
WITH CHC ALONG MD BORDER...AS MODELS HINT AT WAVE ON FRONT IN
SOUTHERN BRANCH...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW. SIMILAR SITUATION TO THE
CURRENT EVENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA.

WENT WITH CHC POPS LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER LVL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS WINDS GO MORE TO THE NW TO N
ON FRIDAY...LESS CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

VERY COLD AIR BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK...
MODELS HINT THAT THE REAL COLD AIR STAYS NORTH OF PA...THUS
LEFT NEXT WEEKEND DRY AT THIS POINT...GIVEN LOCATON OF BEST
COLD AIR TO LIFT WARM AIR BACK NORTHWARD ALSO MODELS HINT THAT
ANY FRONTAL SNOW WOULD BE NORTH ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BANDS OF LOW STRATOCU AND SNOW EMMINATING FROM LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING LIFR TO VLIFR VSBYS AND
CIGS TO JST AND AOO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST DRYING WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...MVFR POSS NW HALF. VFR SE.
WED...MVFR POSS. THU...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU



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