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FXUS61 KCTP 161644
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1144 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving storm system will move off the Mid Atlantic coast
today and tonight. High pressure will build in through mid week.
a new storm system will begin to affect the region for Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Areas of mainly light rain and drizzle continue to rotate
westward under the upper low that the water vapor loop now shows
to be moving smartly east toward the southern Chesapeake.

The remainder of the day looks soggy with occasional rain and
drizzle with northern locations on the edge of a light wintry
mix. We will let the advisory for a glaze of ice over the NERN
continue until 1 PM when anything that may fall of the wintry
variety should be either snow or sleet with little or no accums.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Sunday afternoon, steadier precipitation should taper off from
west to east, as the upper system and associated surface
cyclone push well off the East Coast. It remains questionable
whether cold air on the back side of the low deepens quickly
enough for a period of wet snow later Sunday over parts of
Central PA, before precipitation tapers off/ends. Even if this
were to occur, it would very likely be short-lived and light.
Have adjusted forecast to latest guidance which continues to
temper snowfall and any accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday-Tuesday, it still appears that a drier, colder northwest
flow regime will settle in. The best potential for lake
enhanced snow showers in the mountains appears to be Monday into
Monday night. Relatively shallow moisture should keep
accumulations on the light side.

As ridging briefly pushes in mid-week, Wednesday looks dry and
seasonable.

Late in the week, still plenty of uncertainty, as model
divergence is large with respect to how short-wave energy
progressing towards/through the eastern CONUS behaves. For now,
we'll indicate at least somewhat higher chances for light rain
or snow for Central PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect widespread MVFR to IFR conditions in rain/fog/mist
southern 3/4 and mixed p-types over the northern 1/4 of the
airspace. Do not anticipate significant changes in flying
conditions until after 00Z as the pattern transitions to colder
northwest flow into Monday.

.Outlook...

Mon...MVFR cigs/snow showers northwest 1/2 airspace; mainly VFR
southeast 1/2. Wind gusts 25-35kts from 280-320 degrees.

Tue...MVFR cigs northwest early trending VFR.

Wed-Thu...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner
AVIATION...La Corte
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