FXUS61 KCTP 190819
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
419 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region
late this week and during the weekend. A cold front will likely push
across the area Monday, followed by high pressure building in
from the Great Lakes by the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Model soundings indicate morning stratus over the south central
mountains and patchy fog elsewhere will mix out by afternoon,
with sunny skies for the balance of the day. A strong inversion
around 900mb and very dry air just above it support going lower
than guidance dewpoints. Have manually adjusted dewpoint and
afternoon rh values downward.
Mixing down model 900mb temps yield expected max temperatures
today from the upper 60s over the high terrain, to the low and
mid 70s in the valleys.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure and low-pwat air mass will remain over the region
tonight, resulting in another mostly clear and cool night with
patchy late night valley fog. Expect min temps mainly in the
The surface high will slip south of the region Friday,
resulting in a warmer southwest flow. Plenty of sunshine and
ensemble mean 850 temps around 14C should translate to max temps
in the upper 70s to low 80s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A building upper level ridge and surface high off of the east
coast will bring a resurgence of summertime warmth across the
area this weekend. Max temperature departures of +10-15 degrees
are expected Sat-Sun with peak readings in the mid to upper 80s
in the SE. Max temperatures would have to reach or rise above
90F to challenge daily records in most locations.
The bulk of med range guidance tracks a cold front southeast
across the area Monday, likely accompanied by a round of
showers. A return to fair and seasonable weather appears likely
Tue/Wed, as high pressure builds southeast from the Grt Lks.
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the early overnight hours.
However, patchy fog and/or low clouds are expected to form in
the valleys as temperatures drop overnight. Am anticipating an
IFR low cloud deck to eventually form near KIPT, similar to
what happened there last night. Vsby reductions are possible at
a handful of other central PA TAF sites overnight.
Fog and low clouds should quickly burn off Thursday morning,
leaving fair skies and a light southeasterly flow by afternoon.
Quiet weather and VFR conds are expected into the upcoming
weekend, outside of brief reductions in patchy fog or low
clouds during the late-night/morning hours. The next chance
for precip may approach by next Monday, in the form of
Wed-Sun...AM valley fog/low clouds possible, otherwise
Mon...PM showers/storms possible, otherwise generally VFR.
Autumn officially arrives at 3:50 a.m. EDT, on Monday, Sept. 23.
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