FXUS65 KCYS 182047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
247 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

As a small shortwave moves south, more high clouds are streaming
in over the CWA. With some weak forcing from this shortwave,
light snow showers are likely over the North and South Laramie
Range overnight tonight. This is a weak system and will move
through quickly so little to no accumulation is expected. With its
passage, temperatures will be slightly lower tomorrow. As a ridge
takes over the area again, temperatures will be on the rise and
clouds will move out by the end of tomorrow.

Minor flooding continues to be an issue in the northern Nebraska
panhandle. Snowmelt and possible ice jams have led to rising
creeks and small rivers. Water may be covering some county roads.
As snowmelt continues, minor flooding will continue to be an
issue. The Areal Flood Advisory has been extended to include all
of Sioux, Dawes, and Box Butte counties. Please see the advisory
for the most recent updates.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

A strong ridge will be the main driving force for the rest of the
week. Temperatures will warm up into the 40s and 50s with
increased southerly and southeasterly flow. Spring-like conditions
will prevail through the week. Sunshine and higher temperatures
are concerning with a widespread snow pack. Minor flooding is
possible along creeks and rivers and near higher elevations.

Main concern of the period is a deep trough that looks to affect
the area Saturday into Sunday. This does not appear to be a
similar system to our recent blizzard. Models indicate the low may
already be negatively tilted as it moves onshore. This position
will allow for increased advection of moisture and warmer air into
Wyoming and Nebraska. This will not be an ideal setup for a
winter system. At this time, the main concern is possible heavy
rain for the southern Nebraska panhandle. Parts of southeastern
Wyoming may see some rain as well, but models indicate a stronger
signal over the panhandle. With large snow packs still on the
ground, flash flooding is a possibility. Heavy rain on a snow pack
will quickly turn to runoff and could create problems. Models are
not in agreement on timing this far out, but the orientation and
extent of the low seem to be consistent for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

VFR. SCT-BKN coverage of mid/high level cloud cover should prevail
through the TAF period. Winds will generally be light.


Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Winds remain calm and a fair amount of moisture exists over the
area. Fire weather conditions are not expected through the week.




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