FXUS63 KDDC 190834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
334 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

A fairly substantial change in the forecast for today...for the
snowier. The latest short term high resolution models are latching
on nicely to a wet snow event for at least the first half of the day
behind the departing upper low. There will be a large wrap-around
region of light to moderate accumulating precipitation in the mid
level deformation zone, even quite a distance west of the actual
upper low center as it pushes east into southwest MO this afternoon.
Radar trends as of 0815 UTC were starting to match the HRRR model
prediction of southward expanding deformation zone precip back into
southwest Kansas. Colder air will continue to filter in as well,
with the rain-snow line pushing quickly southeast during the morning
hours. The WRF runs and HRRR all suggest wet snow as far south as
the Ark River. The latest forecast will now call for a wet
accumulation of 1 to 3 inches across mainly Lane-Ness-Trego-Ellis
counties, with up to an inch farther south toward the Ark River.
After collaborating with WFO GLD and GID, will issue a winter
weather advisory for the 1 to 3 inch snowfall forecast for the four
above mentioned counties. This forecast really hinges on
precipitation rates, as higher precip rates will help keep the
boundary layer just cold enough for snow to reach the surface before
melting. Lower precipitation rates (particularly farther south) will
likely prevent the necessary dynamic cooling to offset mid-late
March insolation (even though it will obviously be indirect
insolation). Snowfall will start to wane or perhaps even change back
to rain later in the afternoon as precip rates decrease and slowly
come to an end.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Given the large degree of time and energy devoted to the Short Term
forecast challenge, not much emphasis was put on the Long Term
section. Of greatest interest in the Long Term will be increasing
temperatures by late week, and even borderline hot on Friday with
some upper 80s to around 90F forecast in a rather classic southwest
downslope regime. Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions
will likely develop Friday as a result of the very warm temperatures
and increased southwest winds. A very low amplitude wave will eject
out of the southwest flow pattern late Friday into Saturday, with
attendant precipitation event confined to areas north of southwest
Kansas. Cooler air will push back into western Kansas for the
weekend, and this fresh frontal zone across the Central and Southern
Plains may be the focus for increased precipitation potential going
into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Poor aviation weather will continue through this TAF period.
Flight category will become widespread IFR once the cold front
pushes through in the 09-10Z time frame at the front end of this
TAF period. Winds will increase from the north at 20 to 25 knots
sustained. Light rain will build back south behind the front in
the wrap-around region of the vigorous upper low. Light rain will
persist through much of the day, and even mix with or change to a
wet snow up at the HYS terminal. If snow is the dominant precip
type, then visibility will be below 2 miles at times at HYS. Some
of the high resolution models bring wet snow as far south as DDC,
but this is a low confidence scenario, so GCK and DDC terminals
will remain all light rain in the TAF through the end of the
precip event.


DDC 39 28 57 30 / 70 10 0 0
GCK 41 25 58 28 / 60 10 0 0
EHA 49 27 60 30 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 46 27 61 30 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 35 27 53 28 / 90 40 0 0
P28 45 32 58 31 / 60 30 0 0


Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-



SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
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