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FXUS63 KDDC 250842
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
342 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

A rather large mesoscale convective system (MCS) was moving south
across central and south central Kansas as of 0800Z.
Thunderstorms continued to back-build on the west side of the MCS
between Dodge City and Larned at that time. Training thunderstorms
will continue to be a threat with attendant flash flooding risk
through daybreak. The Flash Flood Watch remained in effect for
areas east of Highway 283. As far as the remainder of the day
goes, low stratus cloud cover will likely keep temperatures from
warming too quickly later on this morning through midday, but once
stratus cloud scatters out and dissolves, temperatures should
warm up into the upper 80s to lower 90s, particularly west of
Highway 283. East of 283, temperatures will probably struggle to
escape the lower 80s for highs. The Colorado border areas from
Elkhart to Johnson to Syracuse will probably not see any impact
from stratus cloud at all, and the combination of longer duration
direct insolation and warmer 800- 850mb temperatures to begin
with, these areas will likely make mid 90s for highs with even a
few upper 90s possible.

On Monday, a fairly strong cold front will be pushing quickly south
across western Kansas. The airmass behind this front will be rather
cool by late August standards, such that afternoon temperatures are
expected to plateau or even slowly fall in the afternoon despite
direct insolation. Monday high temperature forecast is subject to
change if this cold front is slower/faster than currently
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Cooler high pressure will be in place Monday Night into Tuesday
following the late Monday cold front. This should keep precipitation
chances confined to areas south of southwest Kansas, however once
return flow becomes established sometime early Tuesday, isentropic
lift will increase, supporting some elevated showers and
thunderstorms. Western Kansas will remain in fairly zonal west-
northwest flow pattern aloft through mid-week. Temperatures will be
on a slow rebound to the mid to upper 80s and even some 90s by
Thursday, especially as the upper level flow pattern becomes more
westerly instead of northwesterly aloft (favoring better leeside low
level trough). Once we see a leeside trough develop again late week,
surface moisture return will commence and thus bringing in a better
chance for thunderstorm activity late week into the following
weekend. An even stronger cold front looks to be making its way down
into Kansas by around Friday Night or Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Thunderstorms will affect mainly the HYS terminal at the beginning
of this period, but the other 3 terminals DDC, GCK, and LBL will
remain convection-free this TAF period. We expect a corridor of
low stratus and light fog in the IFR category affecting DDC and
GCK, where the axis of low level moisture will likely remain
through Sunday morning with east to east-southeast surface winds.
Overall this TAF is a fairly low confidence forecast in the extent
and duration of IFR flight category. Any IFR in the morning should
scatter out by midday with VFR prevailing all terminals by
afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 66 88 60 / 10 0 10 30
GCK 92 64 84 57 / 10 0 10 30
EHA 97 65 90 57 / 0 0 10 40
LBL 93 66 91 60 / 10 0 10 40
HYS 82 67 82 58 / 20 0 20 10
P28 85 68 94 64 / 60 0 10 30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-031-046-
065-066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
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