FXUS63 KDDC 190859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
359 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

...Updated for short and long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

An upper level disturbance was passing southward down the central
plains early this morning. Some light shower activity has
developed but some of this is not reaching the ground. There are
small chances for showers today as this feature continues to move
southeastward, with the best chance in south central Kansas by
this afternoon. The associated cold front will pass across western
Kansas this morning, with north winds at 12-15 kts developing.
Temperatures today will reach into the 50s to lower 60s, with the
warmest readings ahead of the front around Medicine Lodge. Good
raditional cooling will allow temperatures to fall back into the
20s to lower 30s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

The main focus in on the evolution of the upper level pattern for
Thursday into Sunday across the southwestern United States and
Great Plains. The details are changing with each model run so
that uncertainty is high by Saturday and Sunday. The quality of
low level moisture return is in question for Friday ahead of the
upper level system. A ribbon of 45-48F dewpoints are expected to
move from the Rio Grande valley northward into extreme western
Kansas and far eastern Colorado by Friday evening. But as is often
the case this early in the spring, low clouds in the moist axis
will limit surface heating across western Kansas, with temperaures
staying in the 50s for highs. Immediately along and ahead of the
dry, north-south oriented cold front, partial clearing may allow
for temperatures to approach 60F on the high terrain from
3500-4000 ft elevation. As the -20C 500mb cold pool arrives by
the evening, destablization will occur, with surface based CAPE
values 1000 j/kg (probably much too generous) or less along the
Colorado state line. The vertical wind shear profile will be
supportive of supercells storms; but if there is no surface based
CAPE then severe storms with tornadoes will not occur, which is
the most likely scenario. If moisture return is more robust than
expected and afternoon insolation is greater, then chances for
severe storms would be a higher. Aside from the slim chances for
severe storms, showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
across western Kansas and into central Kansas Friday afternoon
through Saturday. However, the ECMWF is now showing a faster
solution like the GFS, and this would mean a faster end to the
shower and thunderstorm activity by mid-day Saturday around Hays.
The next upper level system will arrive by late Sunday; but it is
likely that the low level moisture will be across the eastern half
of Kansas by this time, with only small rain chances across the

Moisture will once again get suppressed deep into the
tropics after these disturbances pass and amplify over the
southeastern United States. Upper level ridging will lead to a
warming trend starting Monday. Another strong upper level trough
may approach the plains by next Thursday; but this system will
probably be starved for moisture. High temperatures will likely
rise into the 60s and 70s by mid to late week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

An upper level disturbance will move across western and central
Kansas today and tonight. A few showers are possible at KHYS and
KDDC. Otherwise just some mid cloud AOA050 is expected. Winds
will shift to the north at 10-14 kts today in the wake of the
associated weak cold front.


DDC 56 33 61 30 / 20 0 0 0
GCK 57 30 60 28 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 57 31 59 30 / 20 0 10 0
LBL 57 30 60 30 / 20 10 10 0
HYS 53 30 61 30 / 40 0 0 0
P28 59 37 60 31 / 30 20 10 0




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