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FXUS63 KDDC 232022
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
322 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...Updated short and long term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

The weather pattern during the short term can be depicted as an
upper level ridge over the Rockies with long wave troughs on
either side. Towards the surface, a dome of high pressure will be
located east of the area with a trough of low pressure across
eastern Colorado. This will lead to southerly winds across western
Kansas through tomorrow. Low level moisture will ooze back into
far western Kansas with dew points rising above 60 degrees in some
places. This will lead to warmer temperatures overnight with lows
ranging from the low 60s west to upper 50s across central Kansas.
The lee trough will intensify tomorrow leading to breezy southerly
winds tomorrow. A weak upper level shortwave will affect the area
tomorrow afternoon enhancing lift across the area. A few
thunderstorms will develop across eastern Colorado tomorrow
afternoon and slowly slide eastward in the evening. A few of these
storms may make it into far western Kansas by 00Z Friday,
otherwise expect an increase in cloud cover across far western
Kansas with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Highs tomorrow are
progged to reach into the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

As mentioned in the short term, a few storms are expected to
develop across eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon and slide into
far western Kansas Thursday evening. These storms will slowly trek
eastward Thursday night and possibly after sunrise Friday
morning. The chance of precipitation will generally be east of
Highway 283 with the best chance along the KS/CO border. Otherwise
expect cloud cover to increase across the CWA from west to east
overnight. Going beyond Friday into the weekend, it certainly
looks like temperatures will remain fairly seasonal at or slightly
below normal as the synoptic scale pattern becomes more
northwesterly across the Central Plains. In this pattern, low
level convergence will be weak as the overall pressure gradient
should be fairly weak. It is difficult to see any real formidable
precipitation/severe weather chances in a pattern like this,
although anytime there is northwest flow across western Kansas in
the warm season, whether it be late May, June, July, or now in
August, we need to watch for at least some isolated strong/severe
storms -- especially if a minor jet streak/shortwave trough
ripples through the pattern. As for temperatures, highs will
generally be in the mid to upper 80s with lows around 60 degrees
to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be from the south
southeast at less than 10 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 86 65 84 / 0 10 20 20
GCK 62 86 64 84 / 10 10 20 20
EHA 62 82 62 83 / 10 20 30 30
LBL 62 86 64 84 / 10 10 20 30
HYS 60 89 65 85 / 0 10 10 10
P28 59 86 66 85 / 0 10 10 10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
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