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FXUS63 KDDC 151907
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
207 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...Updated Short and Long Term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Models today were in good agreement with a surface boundary over
south central Kansas earlier this morning moving south during the
day. By late day and early evening this surface boundary is
forecast to be located near or just south of the Oklahoma border.
Dew points will be in the 60s late day near the Oklahoma border
and given the forecast instability, 0-6km shear and even some
weak 0-1km forcing present along this boundary from 21z Saturday
to 03z Sunday the potential exists for some scattered late day and
evening convection. At this time this favorable area for late day
convection will be located just south of the Oklahoma border and
given that all the CAMS support this solution and also continue to
indicate a warm layer around the 750mb level which would inhibit
any convection late day in south central Kansas. As a result will
trend in that direction and keep the better chances for evening
convection just south and east of the Medicine Lodge area. Will
however continue to monitor this area for possible late day storms
and if storms do develop they will be capable of producing strong
damaging winds, heavy rainfall and hail.

The area most favorable for late day convection still appears to
be focused over southeast Colorado where better forcing and
instability will be present late day ahead of an upper level
trough that will be moving east northeast across New Mexico. This
convection will move towards southwest Kansas early tonight and is
currently expected to weaken as these storms move into more
stable air. The exception to this weakening trend will be far
southwest Kansas where better instability and shear is forecast to
exist longer early tonight. This will also be near the 0-1km
moisture axis north of our surface boundary. Any storm that does
move across extreme southwest Kansas early tonight along this
moisture axis will also be capable of producing strong damaging
winds, heavy rainfall and hail.

The chance for thunderstorms will spread east across southwest
and south central Kansas late tonight into early Sunday morning as
the upper level trough exits New Mexico and begins to cross the
Texas Panhandle. The best chance for the overnight convection will
be south of the Arkansas River with the better opportunity for
any strong to severe thunderstorms during the overnight period
currently appearing to be confined near or south of the Oklahoma
border.

Morning clouds and scattered thunderstorms will give way to some
clearing skies during the day on Sunday. Another upper wave moving
out of the Colorado Rockies and into the Plains late day will
once again give rise to scattered late day thunderstorms over
southeast Colorado. These storms will once again move southeast
late day and Sunday night. The area most favorable for this
convection Sunday night however appears to be shifted further
south given that our surface boundary, moisture axis north of this
front along with better instability will be located mainly in the
Texas Panhandle.



.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

The chance for afternoon and overnight thunderstorms will be
possible each day early next week as several upper level
disturbances crosses the Western High Plains. The precipitation
chances for western Kansas is then expected to decrease late week
as an upper level ridge builds into the plains in response to an
upper low moving southeast out of Canada into the Pacific
northwest. Not only does some drier conditions look likely late
week for southwest Kansas but it also looks like more summer like
temperatures could be returning also. Temperatures during the week
will begin in the 70s on Monday but a gradual warming trend allow
temperatures to climb into the 80s mid week. Highs in the 90s
looks likely late week given that the ECMWF and GFS both suggest
that the 850mb temperatures at 00z Friday and 00z Saturday will be
in the upper 20s to lower 30s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Clear to mostly clear conditions earlier this afternoon will give
way to increasing clouds late day as convection develops over
southeast Colorado and an upper level trough approaches from the
southwest. VFR conditions can be expected today and overnight but
a period of MVFR conditions will be possible south of a Garden
City to Dodge City line as scattered thunderstorms move across
southwest Kansas between 03z and 09z Sunday. In addition to the
lower clouds a period of gusty winds will also accompany these
storms, especially in the Liberal area. Outside these storms the
winds will be north northeasterly at 10 knots or less this
afternoon and tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 82 60 81 / 30 20 10 20
GCK 58 82 57 81 / 30 10 10 20
EHA 57 78 59 80 / 60 30 20 40
LBL 59 79 62 81 / 50 30 10 20
HYS 61 82 59 81 / 10 10 10 30
P28 65 83 63 83 / 60 30 30 20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
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