FXUS63 KDDC 222317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
617 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

A broad/flat upper level ridge centered over the northern and central
Rockies this morning will shift eastward into the upper Midwest and
central Plains by Sunday morning. At the same time, an upper level
trough will move into the Pacific Northwest. A fairly dry airmass
along with a ridge of surface high pressure across central and western
Kansas this morning will result in a fairly pleasant day with generally
light winds across the region today. Dry conditions are expected to
continue through tonight. There could be some very patchy fog over
south central Kansas toward Sunday morning. The generally light flow
and dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 40s
tonight. Elkhart may stay in the lower 50s tonight with a better surface
pressure gradient in that location.

Increasing westerly flow aloft over the northern and central High
Plains is resulting in a deepening surface trough in the lee of
the Rockies. This trough will continue to deepen through Sunday,
with a resulting increase in south winds across much of western
Kansas. Highs on Sunday should be a little warmer than today given
the increased thickness values and low level mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

The medium range models show a fairly progressive and active upper
level flow pattern occurring over North America through much of
the upcoming week. The shortwave trough currently moving into the
Pacific Northwest is forecast to move east and deepen considerably
across southern Canada and the northern U.S. through Tuesday. This
will push a cold front into central and west central Kansas late
Monday night and across the remainder of southwest Kansas on
Tuesday. There will be a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms
across the area along the front on Tuesday. Tuesday night should
see a continued chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
in areas along and north of the Oklahoma border as the right entrance
region of the upper level jet moves over the central High Plains.
Both the ECMWF and GFS are indicating 850 mb temperatures in the
8-10C range by Wednesday morning as the surface high moves into
south central Nebraska. Low temperatures should drop back into
the 40s across central Kansas. Current forecast will go with
lower 50s farther south but even these may be a little too warm.

Broad cyclonic flow continues over Canada and the northern half of
the U.S. through mid week. The models show another cold front
moving through the area on Thursday with another chance for
showers over central Kansas Thursday night and Friday. By next
weekend the upper trough lifts northeast with westerly flow and
weak upper level ridging returning to the central High
Plains...along with a return to somewhat warmer temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Sunday
afternoon. Light south-southeast winds will persist across southwest
and central Kansas through early Sunday morning as a weak lee side
trough of low pressure remains anchored across eastern Colorado.
Winds are then expected to increase generally 15 to 25kt through
Sunday afternoon as the lee side trough slowly strengthens.


DDC 48 79 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 48 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 51 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 47 83 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 49 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
P28 51 80 59 83 / 0 0 0 0




LONG TERM...Gerard
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