FXUS63 KDDC 060652
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
152 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE WILL BE
ENDING PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES.

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 07Z SHOWED A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH
OF KANSAS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS. A COLD FRONT WAS FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA, EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO. WITH TIME, THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS, WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO FORM NEAR DDC BY 14-
15Z OR SO. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAVELS EAST THROUGH THE
CWA, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
WILL STAY WITH NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE 90 PERCENT RANGE OVER
MY EASTERN 2 TIER OF COUNTIES, AND BACK OFF TO 70-80 IN THE GCK-DDC
AREAS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH 50 POPS IN MY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS
THERE COULD BE SOME DRY SLOTTING WITH THE UPPER LOW. PLAN TO
REDUCE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT
50 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR HYS AS WRAP AROUND COULD LINGER
THERE. REDUCED POPS TO 30 IN THE DDC-P28 CORRIDOR AND DOWN TO 20
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH 20 PERCENT OR LESS POPS WEST. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA BY 09Z TONIGHT, SO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING. WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW CU WILL LIKELY POP UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE POST FRONTAL COLDER AIR.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, PRECIP WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH HIGHS. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS TODAY INTO THE 62 (GCK) TO 69 (P28) RANGE, BASED ON THE
SPEED LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP, AND THE SPEED OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WEST TONIGHT,
MINS COULD DIP TO THE LOWER 40S FROM GCK AND WEST. EXPECT MID 40S
IN DDC AND HYS, WITH LOWER 50S IN P28. MORE SUN FOR TUESDAY SO
SURFACE HEATING WILL ONLY BE LIMITED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF ANY
RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE. STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST RANGE OF 68F IN HYS TO 73F IN LBL. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

DAYS 3-7...

N UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING EAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING A ZONAL FLOW QUICKLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND LASTING BRIEFLY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND INTO THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND BRING BACK A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS(C) EAST TO NEAR 20C
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
PLAN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS, WITH SOME AREAS
FOR VSBYS, THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT
WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 47 70 44 / 70 30 10 0
GCK 62 42 71 42 / 70 20 0 0
EHA 66 45 72 42 / 50 10 0 0
LBL 64 47 73 43 / 50 20 0 0
HYS 63 48 68 45 / 90 50 10 0
P28 69 52 70 48 / 90 30 10 0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FN12/32/32

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