FXUS63 KDDC 050947
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY WAS PROGRESSING INTO MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES HAD
CLEARED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN UTAH.
CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT
60 HOURS, THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED BY ALL THE MODELS TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ON HOW CLOSED OFF AND ENERGETIC IT
WILL BE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL HAVE ONLY A SMALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A
LITTLE COOLER OVER THE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW COVER TODAY AND
TONIGHT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR (ESPECIALLY AROUND
WAKEENEY WHERE 6" OF SNOW FELL). MID-LEVEL CLOUD WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER.
HAVING BEEN SWEPT TO THE GULF COAST BY THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ARE NOT EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUD AND INCREASING NORTH WINDS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL SERVE TO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMER
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL COLD POOL APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BUT AGAIN, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW ROBUST THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON
THE INTENSITY. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THAT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY HELP WEAKEN THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM AND PREVENT HEAVIER SNOWFALL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AND INCREASING CONSISTENCY AMONG THE
MODELS, INCREASING POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY SEEMS A GOOD BET
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS START OUT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BUT WET BULB EFFECTS AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA AS BEING SNOW AS
WELL. THE MODELS GENERALLY HAVE THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING
SO WILL ADJUST THE POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

LATER IN THE WEEK THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND UNDERGOING AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVING DOWN OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING, A POLAR VORTEX MOVES INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MODELS ARE IN
SOMEWHAT LESS AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS AND
UKMET ARE SHOWING A MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ARE MORE ZONAL WITH THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THERE
IS ALSO LESS RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FROM
24 HOURS AGO. THE TREND APPEARS TO BE FOR THE FLOW PATTERN TO BE
PROGRESSIVE SO ANY COLD AIRMASSES MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 24 51 29 / 0 0 0 20
GCK 45 23 49 29 / 0 0 0 30
EHA 46 23 50 28 / 0 0 0 30
LBL 46 24 51 29 / 0 0 0 20
HYS 42 23 48 29 / 0 0 0 30
P28 49 27 52 31 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...12



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