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FXUS63 KDDC 261100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Impressive MCS continues to dive south through W TX this morning,
with cirrus anvil outflow still spreading across the southern
half of SW KS. Beneath this, persistent layers of stratus clouds
remain. These stratus ceilings will continue to lower overnight
into Monday morning, in response to gentle moist upslope winds
interacting with the higher terrain. Will need to keep watch for
any fog development through Monday morning, given the current
setup augmented by yesterday's rainfall.

Low stratus clouds will gradually erode and lift to a broken
mid layer cloud deck by this afternoon. Temperatures will be
several degrees warmer today, but still well below normal, in the
lower 80s. Instability does return this afternoon, with 00z NAM
forecasting lifted indices near -5C and CAPE near 1500 J/kg.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in
response, but determining exactly where is difficult with weak
surface flow and lack of focusing mechanisms. At least a slight
chance mentioned in all zones this afternoon, with higher
scattered coverage favoring the northern half of the CWA.
Latest HRRR solutions favor this thinking, with scattered
thunderstorms developing north of US 50 by 5 pm. 00z NAM develops
convection along and east of US 283 this afternoon, while other
models are more keen on focusing development closer to a synoptic
frontal boundary in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. Whereever
storms decide to form, the CAPE and shear combination is expected
to favor supercell structures initially with a primary risk for
large hail.

Thunderstorms slowly dissipate tonight. Leftover cloud cover and a
moist boundary layer will keep temperatures elevated, remaining in
the lower 60s Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

The long term forecast through this weekend continues to look
convectively active, with opportunities for thunderstorms at
least somewhere in SW KS each day.

Tuesday...Windy and warmer. Lee cyclogenesis of 990 mb in western
Nebraska will induce strong south winds Tuesday afternoon,
averaging 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph at times. Coordinated
with surrounding offices to increase wind/wind gust grids over the
superblend starting point. Pressure gradient near 10 mb across SW
KS will support plenty of wind for a bad hair day warning. Primary
threat for severe weather looks to be in Nebraska, but some
thunderstorms will trail southward along the dryline, where GFS
progs CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and healthy EHI. Pop grids favor
the northern zones by Tuesday evening, where some supercells
appear likely. Noticeably warmer, back to normal, with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Wednesday...Focus for severe weather will be directed eastward, as
the lee trough/dryline advances to the eastern zones. By Wednesday
evening, storm coverage favors the NE 1/2 of the CWA, where 00z
GFS/ECMWF forecast an enviroment favorable for severe convection.
Reference Day 3 SPC convective outlook. Temperatures continue to
climb, well into the 90s, with the hottest locales west of the
dryline approaching 100.

Thursday...Still expecting more thunderstorms, favoring the
eastern half of SW KS. ECMWF forecasts storm initiation along the
dryline near the eastern zones in the afternoon, supported by
strong instability. In fact, 00z ECMWF forecasts a large MCS
across central and eastern Kansas Thursday evening, probably
backbuilding into the SE zones near Medicine Lodge. Large hail and
flooding rains are possible.

An MCS outflow-aided cold front passage is expected Thursday night
and Friday morning, ushering in a NE wind and milder temperatures
in the 80s. This should finally force convection to our south into
Oklahoma Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Patchy morning BR will impact the terminals first. This will clear away
to VFR as the morning progresses. Otherwise, VFR expected for much
of the rest of the TAF pd. CB/TSRA will be possible late this afternoon
into the evening. Will retain VCTS for all the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 62 90 69 / 20 30 10 10
GCK 84 61 93 67 / 30 30 10 20
EHA 83 62 90 66 / 20 20 10 30
LBL 83 63 89 70 / 20 30 10 20
HYS 81 61 89 69 / 30 30 10 30
P28 86 64 89 71 / 20 30 10 20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Sugden
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