FXUS63 KDDC 052340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
640 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

There is an outside chance for isolated thunderstorms early this
evening as lapse rates steepen under a slowly eroding cap. Despite
the lack of a mid/upper level triggering mechanism as an upper
level ridge axis shifts eastward across the high plains of western
Kansas, sufficient instability with SBCAPE values in excess of
1000 to 1500 J/kg and modest deep layer shear should be enough to
support the potential development of isolated thunderstorms toward
early evening as a few weak H5 perturbations ascend the back side
of the aforementioned ridge axis. Will retain slight PoPs for
portions of southwest Kansas. A drier trend is then expected to
continue into Saturday as the upper level ridge axis shifts
farther east into eastern Kansas, giving way to a developing
southwest flow aloft across the high plains of eastern
Colorado/extreme southwest Kansas. A warmer air mass reinforced by
low level southerlies will result in fairly mild temperatures
tonight. Look for lows only down into the upper 60s(F)/lower
70s(F). Widespread 90s(F) to near 100F are likely for afternoon
highs Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

A relatively hot/dry period is expected through the weekend and into
early next week as a southwesterly flow aloft prevails across the
Western High Plains on the back side of a slowly departing upper
level ridge. Despite modest instability present, a contribution of
fairly weak southwesterlies aloft and capping will limit thunderstorm
chances through Monday night. Medium range models hint that
thunderstorm chances may return Tuesday, albeit limited, as an
upper level trough pushes through the Intermountain West, ushering
an attendant cold front into western Kansas by sometime late
Tuesday. The trend for above normal temperatures will persist
through at least Monday as prevailing southerlies reinforce a much
warmer air mass across the high plains of western Kansas. Expect
afternoon highs well up into the 90s(F) to near 100F both Sunday
and Monday. A projected cold front pushing through western Kansas
should provide welcome relief Tuesday with more seasonal temperatures


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight with mostly clear
skies. Winds will generally be from the south through tomorrow
gusting over 30 knots by tomorrow afternoon.


DDC 70 98 71 97 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 69 99 70 98 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 69 100 69 98 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 69 100 70 98 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 70 98 73 97 / 10 0 0 0
P28 72 100 72 98 / 10 0 0 0




LONG TERM...JJohnson
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