FXUS63 KDDC 150806
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT MON MAR 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
VERSION. THE UPPER AND MID STACK LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH RESIDING
OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA, BUT DO HAVE MY DOUBTS OF
ANY MEASURABLE LIQUID WILL ACCUMULATE. IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUPLE
OF COUNTIES OF MORTON AND STEVENS, I BUMPED QPF UP TO 0.02 (FROM
0.01), JUST IN CASE THE RAIN PERSISTS A LITTLE LONGER THERE. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING,
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR SUNRISE
WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
DAY TIME RISE WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN FOR
OVER HALF THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 46F IN HAYS TO
PERHAPS 54F AT P28. CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 29F AT GCK AND EHA AND RANGE TO 34F AT P28.

ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ONE OR TWO SITES MAY SEE
AROUND 60F FOR A HIGH, BUT AM BETTING THE LIGHTLY SOAKED GROUND WILL
THWART SOME OF THE FULL SUNSHINE HEATING. NO CHANGES TO TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY RESULTING IN FAIRLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FURTHER PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS TO FINISH OUT
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, BUT ALL AGREE SHOWING AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SOMETIME DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY HELPING TO INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST AS
MODELS INDICATE A DECENT MOISTURE RETURN SETUP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE 24 TO 36 HOURS LEADING UP TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. STILL, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE
CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY INFLUENCING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FA. THIS WILL HELP HINDER HIGHS CLIMBING TOO MUCH FROM THE DAY
PREVIOUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND 2C ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO NEAR 10C ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. AS A RESULT, SHOULD EXPECT HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE
60S(F) WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW UPPER 50S(F) STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
EAST AND NORTHEAST. LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL INFLUENCE A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS RESULTING IN MODEST WAA INTO THE AREA. THE WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 60S(F) TO NEAR 70F IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD FROPA FRIDAY WILL
PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS AN ISSUE AND WILL
CERTAINLY AFFECT HIGHS FRIDAY. CANNOT JUSTIFY ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT FOR FRIDAY. WILL MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
IT'S EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY FOR CIGS...WILL PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF
ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATER TODAY...MAINLY AFTER 16Z. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25KT
AND GUSTY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 31 58 32 / 20 0 0 0
GCK 51 29 58 30 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 46 29 59 34 / 30 0 0 0
LBL 49 30 58 33 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 52 30 56 30 / 20 0 0 0
P28 54 34 58 32 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FN12/32/32

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