FXUS63 KDDC 171027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
427 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

...Updated Short and Long Term ...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Today will be windy, much colder than yesterday, with a chance of
freezing drizzle this afternoon, and light snow this evening.

A surface cold front located from west-central Iowa through
southeastern Colorado is pushing south this morning. Strong wind
behind the front has produced wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range
from Ulysses to Hays, which will overspread southwest Kansas as
the front slides into Texas and Central Oklahoma this afternoon.
Wind gusts will be highest from sunrise to roughly 9am as an 850
mb jet of 40-45 mph mixes to the surface. Wind will decrease
gradually through the day from north to south as the pressure
gradient relaxes, however wind will stay in the 10-20 mph range
through late tonight.

Strong cold air advection will occur today, causing a non-diurnal
temperature trend. Under overcast skies, temperatures will only begin
to drop early-afternoon, causing the morning low and afternoon
high to be within several degrees of each other. Highs today will
range from the upper 30s to lower 30s, which will be roughly
25-30 degrees colder than yesterday.

Precipitation and precipitation type continues to be a challenge
today. Model runs have been consistent with mid-level
frontogenesis and deeper moisture profiles setting up north of
the forecast area this evening. They have also been consistent
with dry mid-level air over most of southwest Kansas to prevent
cloud ice formation for snow growth. With that said, there is
still a chance for the deeper moisture, and therefore snow, to
occur in our northern zones, especially toward the I70 corridor
this evening. Accumulations (if any) will be <1/2 inch at most.
The 0Z NAM and GFS bring low level ascent/moisture to Southwest
Kansas in the early afternoon (NAM) and evening (GFS) south of a
Ulysses to Ness City to La Crosse line, which brings concerns for
drizzle and freezing drizzle after roughly 4 pm. Confidence in
this is medium, however it doesn't take much freezing drizzle to
create impacts on sidewalks and less frequented roads. Overnight
lows should stay in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Subsidence behind the upper level shortwave associated with
Saturday's system will allow clouds to quickly clear out on
Sunday afternoon. Surface high pressure will move through the
forecast area through the day, keeping wind calm. Temperatures
willreach into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Expect a warmer start going into the week. Upper level northwest
flow and surface high pressure set in with temperatures reaching
in the 50s. Lee troughing in eastern Colorado will bring a windy
Wednesday and breezy Thanksgiving, though temperatures will still
reach into the 50s. A surface cold front moves through Friday
morning, but rain chances remain focused toward Eastern Kansas.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

A strong cold front will move through terminals between 6 and 8Z.
Wind will shift to become north/northeast, and increase with
gusts to 25-35 knots, with the strongest winds between 9 and 14Z
when 40+ knots 850 mb wind mixes to the surface. Wind will
gradually decrease through the day, reaching less than 10-15 knots
by sunset. BUFR soundings show MVFR stratus ceilings at all
terminals after 12-14Z, becoming IFR at times throughout the day.
The MVFR/IFR stratus deck will will remain for the forecast
period. There is the potential for -SN around HYS this evening,
but confidence wasn't high enough for mention in the TAF just yet.
Other precipitation to monitor is a small chance for freezing
drizzle at GCK and DDC in the early afternoon, but again, have too
low of confidence to mention.


DDC 34 22 39 25 / 10 20 10 0
GCK 34 22 39 23 / 10 20 0 0
EHA 35 22 41 26 / 10 20 0 0
LBL 36 21 40 24 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 33 21 38 25 / 20 40 10 0
P28 39 27 40 25 / 10 20 10 0




SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
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