FXUS63 KDDC 301104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Upper low, located over east central New Mexico at 00z Sunday,
will lift northeast into central Kansas by early this afternoon.
As this system crosses the Texas Panhandle early this morning
another round of steadier and heavier precipitation will spread
into western Kansas. All the models continue to agree with
significant snowfall from this next round of steadier and heavier
precipitation. Additional accumulations of 10 to 14 inches is
not out of the question along the mid level deformation
zone/TROWAL axis ahead of this upper low from roughly Johnson to
Garden City to around Scott City. Time frame for this heavy
snowfall will be from 4 am to 4 pm. Lower snow totals expected
further east with much of this next round of precipitation near
and east of highway 283 being mainly liquid. At this time
confidence is still not high on where the rain to snow line will
be located early today so will continue to keep the gradient of
snowfall as is for now. Will monitor this through the early
morning hours and if the ran/snow line ends up being further east
then higher snow accumulations will be possible in the current
winter weather advisory area and may have to upgrade a few
counties to a winter storm warning.

Tonight...Ongoing precipitation will taper off from southwest to
northeast as the upper level storm system moves from eastern
Kansas into Iowa. As the precipitation ends the skies will clear
and the winds will decrease to 10 to 15 mph. This will produce
favorable conditions for temperatures to fall back into the 20s
for locations that have received significant snowfall. Further
east temperatures will be warmer but still 30 to 35 degree lows
still will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

A northwesterly down slope flow will develop Monday and 850mb
temperatures warm roughly 8 to 10 degrees from 00z Monday to 00z
Tuesday. Despite this warming trend the weekend snowfall will
limit the warm up across portions of western Kansas. Will undercut
guidance in locations where the more significant snow fell while
trending more towards the warmer 850mb mix down temperatures

Chances for rain will return late Tuesday and Wednesday as
moisture and lift improves across western Kansas and an upper
level trough approaches from the northwest. As this upper level
wave crosses the Central Plains mid week a cool dome of high
pressure at the surface will build into western Kansas. This will
bring an end to the early week warming trend but as an upper level
ridge axis begins to build east into the Rockies late week
temperatures will once again warm back to more seasonal levels as
a period of dry weather returns.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Poor flight conditions through much of TAF pd. However, there maybe
some improvement towards the end of the TAF cycle. Otherwise, IFR conditions
will continue through today as a major weather system impacts the terminals
with SN and strong winds.


DDC 36 32 59 39 / 100 20 0 10
GCK 36 28 50 35 / 100 10 0 10
EHA 38 30 56 37 / 90 0 0 10
LBL 39 31 63 39 / 100 0 0 10
HYS 35 33 57 38 / 100 50 0 0
P28 41 34 69 44 / 80 10 0 0


Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for



SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
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