FXUS63 KDDC 230649
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1249 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019
...Updated Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1244 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019
Quiet short term for today. Upper level winds will stay
northwesterly and the arctic air mass in place will move eastward.
With mostly sunny skies and west to northwest winds...most of the
area should see highs in the low to mid 40s.
Tonight an approaching storm system and cold front will bring in
increasing clouds throughout the night and overspreading the area
after midnight. The leading edge of the cold air will start to
move into the I-70 corridor by sunrise Thursday morning. Lows will
fall into the lower 20s near the I-70 corridor to the mid to upper
20s in the central and south.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019
Dry weather will prevail through the long term forecast period.
NW flow through most of the atmosphere will keep moisture limited
and precipitation prospects near zero. A series of cold fronts
will continue, offering wind shifts and temperature fluctuations.
Outside of perhaps some snow showers with an arctic cold front
Monday, all grids are dry.
Thursday...Cloudy, colder and a breezy N/NE wind, courtesy of yet
another Canadian cold front. Coldest arctic air will remain well
to our NE, but it will still be noticeably colder, holding in the
Friday and Saturday...Sunny and milder. ECMWF rebounds 850 mb
temperatures back to the +1 to +3C range, allowing afternoon 40s
to return both afternoons.
Sunday...The warmest day of the forecast period. 12z ECMWF shows a
strong plume of warm advection at 850 mb, pushing 850 mb
temperatures to near +10C Sunday afternoon. Afternoon temperatures
in the 50s from MEX guidance and the model blend were accepted,
and increased by a few degrees. Could easily see 60s in the SW
Models remain consistent showing another strong cold front passage
on Monday. Today's model runs appear drier with this system, and
only carried a few light snow showers in the upslope-favored
SW zones. The jury is still out on how cold this airmass will be;
the latest 12z ECMWF operational run has backed off from
yesterday's intensely cold solution.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019
Light snow and low clouds will move out of HYS over the next
couple of hours. Afterwards VFR conditions with mainly clear skies
throughout the majority of the TAF time period. Winds in the
afternoon (19Z-23Z) will pick up out of the west-northwest to
12-14 kts. Cloud ceilings will start to fall again as mid level
clouds move into western Kansas from 03Z-06Z.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 13 44 24 35 / 50 0 0 20
GCK 12 43 23 33 / 30 0 0 20
EHA 17 46 28 36 / 0 0 0 20
LBL 16 46 28 34 / 10 0 0 20
HYS 13 40 21 31 / 80 0 10 20
P28 19 46 28 36 / 20 0 0 20
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