FXUS63 KDDC 191849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
149 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Scattered storms and heat will continue to be the main forecast
points in the short term. A surface low located in southeast
Colorado along with a weak frontal boundary in southwest Kansas
will be the focus for the potential development of storms late
this afternoon into tonight. HRRR and RAP have been fairly
consistent showing isolated to widely scattered storms developing
after 4pm and moving east to southeast through the forecast area
before dying off shortly after sunset. Main risk with these storms
will be strong downburst winds given the environment of around
100 degree highs and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. CAPE
values are forecast to be ~3000 J/kg ahead of the thunderstorm
development. It looks like better potential for storm development
tonight given the lack of widespread morning convection...however
a few isolated thunderstorms from Syracuse to Garden City that
developed this morning may provide a more stable airmass for
thunderstorm development to overcome.

Friday could bring with it similar conditions with more heat
through the forecast area as highs in the lower 100s with heat
index values around 105 for the counties along the Oklahoma border
looking like a good bet. The surface low in eastern Colorado will
continue to have a weak frontal boundary in southwest Kansas and
with northwest flow another 500-700 mb shortwave will move in late
afternoon. Depending on where the boundary sets up more isolated
to widely scattered late afternoon storms could develop. A lot
will depend on if the CAP can be broken ahead of the boundary so
the chance nothing develops is also in the cards.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

More chances of spotty storms will continue in the long term as
the upper level pattern will continue to stay mainly in northwest
flow between an upper level low in the southeast and a ridge in
the desert southwest.

A 500-700 mb shortwave is forecast to come into western Kansas
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and combining with upslope
flow we could once again see isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms develop.

Sunday with the ridge moving a little more eastward at this point
this should keep us dry through most of the day.

Monday the long term models have the hints of a MCS developing in
eastern Colorado with a shortwave propagating along the ridge and
moving into western Kansas in the overnight.

Tuesday through Thursday continue with the upper level flow in a
northwest pattern with periodic shortwaves rotating around the
ridge in the Rockies providing more chances of isolated to widely
scattered storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

VFR conditions and overall light winds through the time period.
Main concern will be isolated thunderstorms potentially developing
in southwest Kansas after 21Z and moving eastward through 03Z.
This could provide VCTS conditions for GCK, LBL, and DDC. Storms
should be isolated to widely scattered in nature however should
any of these storms go over the airports brief strong thunderstorm
produced winds of up to 50 kts will be possible.


DDC 102 68 101 70 / 20 20 0 20
GCK 103 68 102 69 / 20 20 10 20
EHA 101 70 104 70 / 20 20 20 20
LBL 103 71 106 70 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 98 70 96 67 / 10 10 0 10
P28 101 73 102 72 / 20 20 0 20


Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-080-081-

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ088>090.



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