FXUS63 KDLH 251946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
246 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for portion of NW WI
until 800 pm. Main focus for short term is severe thunderstorm
watch for a portion of NW WI. Also, thunderstorm chances this
afternoon and tonight elsewhere.

Current surface analysis indicates strong thunderstorms along
northshore of Lake Superior and south of Burnett county in NW WI.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for portion of NW WI
until 800 pm. A short wave is moving through central MN this
afternoon causing strong to severe thunderstorms. This wave will
move into western WI later this afternoon causing strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms to develop. There has been plenty of
sun in Western WI along with lower 60s dewpoints. The storms will
be pulse-type across the region as the shear is low NW WI.

The storms will decrease after sunset as the shortwave moves past
the region. The showers and storms will decrease later tonight and
a weak area of high pressure will build into the area. Skies will
be clear to partly cloudy later tonight and tomorrow with above
normal temps and dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. A shortwave
will move along the southern canadian border Saturday afternoon
and may bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms north of
the Iron Range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Warm temperatures continue during the long range with periodic
shower and thunderstorm chances.

An upper-level ridge will build over the Northland Saturday night
and Sunday with warm temperatures expected. Highs will be in the
80s to low 90s over much of the area, except near Grand Marais
and Grand Portage where 70s will be likely near the lake breeze.
A few storms are possible Sunday evening through the overnight as
a shortwave trough moves through northwest Minnesota and
northwest Ontario. A few storms may linger into Memorial Day, but
widespread storms are not expected during the day. Diurnally
driven storms are possible again Monday night as another
shortwave trough glides over the top of the ridge.

Tuesday looks to be unsettled with rain chances as a deeper
trough moves out of the Rockies and across the Plains.
Instability on the order of 1500 to 2000 J/kg is forecast with
favorable deep layer shear for strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms. The upper trough and surface low pressure will
move east-northeastward across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue as the system moves through the
region. With clouds and precipitation expected Tuesday and
Wednesday, temperatures will remain above normal, but trend
cooler, those days and into Thursday. A few diurnally driven
showers or thunderstorms are possible again Thursday afternoon,
but widespread precipitation is not expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Atmosphere over the Northland has begun to destabilize as evident
by the cumulus which has developed in the past hour. Still think
we will see a few thunderstorms developing over the region, which
may affect the terminals. Continued the VCTS mentions for now.
Would like to see additional storm development before adding
prevailing -TSRA. Thunder potential decreases this evening as the
best forcing for storms pushes east. Forecast is VFR for now, but
will likely adjust with some MVFR/IFR visibility or ceilings once
storms develop.


DLH 58 85 57 90 / 30 20 0 0
INL 55 82 54 87 / 50 30 0 0
BRD 58 88 59 90 / 10 0 0 10
HYR 58 89 57 92 / 30 20 0 0
ASX 57 80 50 88 / 20 30 10 0


LS...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>143.



SHORT TERM...Stewart
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