FXUS63 KDLH 152014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
314 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

High pressure over the area with clouds filtering in from the west
this afternoon. A low pressure center over Iowa will slowly move
east and bring precipitation to a good portion of the forecast
area. Rainfall amounts will be fairly light with a quarter of an
inch being the mean overnight. East winds will continue and keep
temperatures cool. The CAPE gradient remains just to the south of
our forecast area, so any chances for thunder remain confined to
the southern boundary of the forecast area. Chances for showers
remain on Sunday as an upper level trough continues its pivot
around the Northern Plains. Lack of strong forcing makes for a
fairly mundane forecast with the main theme being mostly cloudy
with a chance of showers.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Quasi-zonal flow is expected for much of the upcoming week which
will bring periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms as
shortwave troughs move through the region. A closed upper-low will
move east along the International Border Monday and Monday night.
Southwesterly low-level flow will supply higher theta-e air ahead
of the system for Monday afternoon and will set the stage for
showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of an
advancing cool front. A few of the storms may be strong with deep
layer shear of 35 to 40 knots. Diurnally driven storms are
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening with cool air aloft and
partly cloudy skies. After Tuesday, model solutions diverge
between Wednesday and Thursday morning. There is a low chance of
showers and storms during the period, but confidence is not
especially high given the diverse envelope of solutions indicated
by the ensemble and deterministic guidance.

A more organized system is forecast to move across the southern
Canadian Prairies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest during the
Wednesday evening to Friday night timeframe. A seasonably strong
jet streak will move across the northern tier of the United
States with a shortwave trough and associated vorticity advection
at 500 mb. Low-level flow ahead of this system will be
southwesterly which will set the stage for another round of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Friday
night. A few of those storms may be strong.

Temperatures will below near to slightly below normal for the
long term with highs generally in the upper 60s to middle 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

VFR conditions continue this afternoon with gusty east to
northeast winds. Weak low pressure will move into the area this
evening and will bring scattered showers into the terminals
tonight. Ceilings will dip to MVFR at DLH, HIB, and BRD after the
showers move out tomorrow morning.


Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Northeast winds are forecast tonight through Monday morning over
western Lake Superior. The winds will be strongest in the
southwest arm where sustained winds of 10 to 20 knots are forecast
with occasional gusts to 25 knots. Waves will build to 2 to 5
feet near the Twin Ports. A Small Craft Advisory was issued from
Two Harbors to the Twin Ports to Port Wing where the strongest
winds and highest waves are expected.


DLH 43 58 43 66 / 50 30 10 20
INL 47 64 47 67 / 30 30 30 30
BRD 48 64 48 72 / 70 40 10 20
HYR 47 66 45 73 / 60 40 10 20
ASX 44 60 42 67 / 40 40 10 10


WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145.



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