FXUS63 KDLH 240012
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
712 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
Clouds were on the increase this afternoon across the forecast area
ahead of the system currently affecting the Dakotas into western
Minnesota. High pressure near Hudson Bay was advecting dry air into
the region along with an easterly flow off of Lake Superior. This
combination was effectively preventing any low and mid clouds from
the Dakotas system from moving into the area. Some low stratus was
attempting to get organized over the Twin Ports harbor area.
However, these clouds have been dissipating as soon as they reach
Upper level ridging will move over the region tonight, while the
high pressure meanders around northern Ontario. These factors will
work in concert to keep the precipitation associated with the
Dakotas system from having much of an impact on the western edge of
the forecast area. Have already adjusted the pops to reflect this
trend and now only expect the light snow to affect the western edge
of Cass County. With minimal QPF, this led to lower snow amounts and
currently only have less than a half inch of accumulation expected.
Farther east, the high pressure will result in a dry forecast and a
mostly cloudy sky.
While the upper ridging largely remains over the region on Saturday,
some vorticity moves through southern Minnesota. Its proximity to
the region warranted keeping a small pop over southern Cass and Crow
Wing counties in the early morning hours. The vorticity departs by
mid morning with the ridging aloft, and at the surface, taking
control for the rest of Saturday. The cool easterly flow continues
and will keep max temps near to slightly below normal.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
The latter half of the weekend looks dry and mild. High pressure
over eastern Canada will still dominate the Great Lakes on Sunday.
The Northland will have breezy south-southeast return flow and
increasing cloud cover from the west. Sunday's highs will be in the
A Colorado low will eject into the Central Plains Sunday night and
Monday, with low pressure stretching from the Southern Plains to
Canada. Overall, this does not look like a particularly organized
system due to multiple upper waves and a lack of dominant wave. It
will be bringing moderate forcing for ascent to generate a period of
light to moderate precipitation for the Northland early next week.
The mild weather will continue for Monday and Tuesday, and
temperatures aloft will be fairly warm, so anticipate mostly rain
with wet or melting snow. Snow accumulation will likely be quite
The middle of the week will likely be followed by a period of cooler
weather and high pressure. There might be a weak Canadian Clipper
that cuts across southern Canada or as far south as the US/Canada
border area, which could bring light rain and snow to northern
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
Surface low pressure was centered in northwest Kansas early this
evening with high pressure in northern Ontario. Dry air continues
to move east out of the high and will be partially responsible for
keeping most of the Northland dry through the period. It's still
possible some light snow may make it's way to KBRD, but forecast
soundings show a lot of dry air has to be overcome for that to
happen. We left the TAF dry at KBRD for now and will monitor radar
and observations through the night.
Some the models show MVFR ceilings developing along portions of
the North Shore, possibly into KDLH, late tonight into Saturday.
Although a long fetch across Lake Superior will exist, the low
levels are quite dry as seen in satellite imagery with no clouds
over eastern Lake Superior under 850MB temperatures from 10C below
to 12C below. There were some MVFR ceilings that developed for a
time earlier today, but they were short lived. Some of the higher
resolution guidance also wants to develop snow overnight along the
North Shore but given the dry air, any snow that is able to form
should be quite light.
Gusty winds will continue through tonight, especially around Lake
Superior, then diminish Saturday afternoon.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 20 33 22 40 / 0 0 0 0
INL 18 38 21 42 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 24 38 25 41 / 10 10 0 10
HYR 21 40 21 44 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 19 36 20 43 / 0 0 0 0
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ140-144>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ141>143.
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