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FXUS63 KDLH 202031
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
331 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

At 330 PM, widespread rain covered the entire region. Persistent
light rain had spread northward to the International Border, with
thunderstorms now moving into portions of northwest Wisconsin.
Temperatures were generally in the 50s across the region, with
strong northeast winds. Winds had been gusting well into the 30 to
40 MPH range near Lake Superior, with large waves in the
Duluth/Superior harbor.

The focus for tonight will first be on the potential for severe
weather in northwest Wisconsin. SPC has a slight risk across the
southeast portion of our CWA in Wisconsin, with an enhanced risk
just coming into extreme southern Price County. Based on Current
mesoscale analysis and radar trends, it does look like there could
be some strong to severe storms across that area from late
afternoon into this evening. Will continue to mention
thunderstorms in that area, and highlight the potential for severe
storms across that area.

Across the rest of the region, persistent rain could lead to some
local ponding of water, especially in low-lying areas and urban
areas. Strong winds will continue near Lake Superior with gale
force winds continuing into the night before decreasing as winds
shift to the north to northwest.

Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are expected to linger on
Friday, but look for the chance of precipitation to gradually
diminish from west to east during the day. Highs will again be in
the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

High pressure will build into the Mid Mississippi River Valley on
Saturday. A shortwave trough will slide from northern Saskatchewan
into Ontario on Saturday. At the surface this will quickly move a
cold front toward the International Border. The majority of the
Duluth CWA will be dry on Saturday, however there are chances of
rain across northern Minnesota. Southern portions of the region will
see strong radiational cooling with high pressure under control.
Expect much of northwest Wisconsin and portions of northeast
Minnesota to see frost develop. Will likely need a frost advisory,
but holding off for now as any changes to the cloud cover will
impact how widespread frost is. Saturday morning lows range from the
low 30s to the low 40s. Saturday afternoon highs range from the low
50s along the International Border, to the low 60s in southern
areas.

The front will stall along the International Border Saturday evening
into early Sunday morning. This will be a focal point for rain
chances, which will spread a toward the Twin Ports. Temperatures
aloft (at 850 hPa) will be quite cool with values ranging from +2
degrees Celsius to -2 degrees Celsius along the International
Border. Expect a change over to rain/snow along the International
Border late Saturday night into early Sunday, no snow accumulation
is anticipated at this time. Sunday morning lows range from the low
30s near the Tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead, to the mid 40s in the
Brainerd Lakes to the Hayward area.

The stalled out front will become a warm front on Sunday as a
trough digs into the Intermountain West. This will develop an area
of low pressure over the Northern Plains. The surface low will lift
northeastward into the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Monday and
exit the region by Tuesday. The warm front will bring rain chances
to northern portions of Minnesota on Sunday into Sunday evening, but
the approaching system will spread rain chances to the rest of the
forecast area on Monday. A few thunderstorms are possible across
northwest Wisconsin Monday evening. Ahead of the incoming low there
will be a strong surge of southerly air, which will advect warm air
into the region on Monday. Highs range from the low 60s along the
International Border, to the low 70s in northwest Wisconsin.

A weak high will quickly build in Tuesday, however the dry weather
will be short lived. Another trough will dig in from central Canada
mid next week, which will bring more chances of rain. Expect near
seasonable temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 50s
and 60s. Low temperatures range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

IFR conditions with low ceilings and areas of showers and storms will
prevail for a large portion of the forecast period. Winds will be
quite strong from the northeast until later tonight when they
become northwest with the passage of a cold front. Winds will be
strongest in the KDLH area with gusts of 30 knots or more. Winds
are very strong in a few thousand feet off the surface with some
winds increasing to 45 to 50 knots from the southwest at 2-4k
feet. This will cause low level wind shear, especially over KHYR
where surface winds will not be as strong. After 12z ceilings are
expected to lift behind the cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 55 40 60 / 100 50 0 10
INL 39 56 40 52 / 100 60 10 40
BRD 45 55 39 62 / 90 30 0 0
HYR 50 54 36 62 / 100 40 0 0
ASX 50 55 39 62 / 100 60 0 10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
140>148.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121-
140>148.

Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...CLC
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