FXUS63 KDLH 181127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
527 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

Broken record here, but wind chills and cold continue to be the
main focus of the forecast. Pressure gradient from an advancing
high to our northwest and a retreating low to our east is causing
10 kt winds in conjunction with negative temperatures this
morning. Currently, solidly in the wind chill advisory territory
across the advised counties. Upper level clouds will increase from
the west which should temper the cold a bit. 850 mb temps near
-20 C will remain over the area for the foreseeable future. Will
likely need more wind chill headlines tonight and for the next
several nights. Only a small chance of south shore lake effect as
dry air is quite extensive in the lower atmosphere. Timing and
extent of the advisory still looks good.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

The Northland will be entrenched in frigid Arctic for the
weekend, but the weather will moderate a bit after the weekend. An
axis of high pressure will move into the Northland Saturday
night, with the center of the high to the north in Ontario. This
will make for a mostly clear night with light winds. Temperatures
will plummet well below zero, and will likely even reach 30 below
zero at International Falls. Expect dangerous wind chills of 25 to
50 below zero across central, north-central, and northeast
Minnesota. The core of the very cold Arctic air will begin to
shift east out of the Northland Sunday, and this should help
temperatures rebound to highs mostly in the single digits above
zero Sunday.

Southerly return flow will develop Sunday night. Lows will be below
zero and wind chills will be about 10 to 20 below zero. There is
increasing confidence Monday will bring the Northland's next round
of accumulating snow. A Plains low will likely track east from
Colorado to the southern Great Lakes, and its inverted trough will
likely bring snow through the Northland. It is possible many areas
could pick up 1 to 3 inches, and the greatest snowfall should be
across the southern forecast area closer to the low.

Another wave of Arctic air will likely follow up the snow Tuesday,
but it does not look nearly as cold as the air we will experience
this weekend. Below normal temperatures will continue through the
middle of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

VFR with some high clouds drifting through. A little bit of wind
near KDLH this morning. Only a small chance for MVFR at HYR, but
not enough of a chance for inclusion into the TAFs.


DLH 3 -16 1 -17 / 0 0 0 0
INL -8 -29 -6 -32 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 5 -17 2 -15 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 10 -5 9 -5 / 10 10 0 0
ASX 8 -1 9 -4 / 20 30 20 20


MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-018>021-



LONG TERM...Grochocinski
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