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FXUS63 KDLH 171748
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1148 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Updated below for 18z Aviation Discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 1014 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Updated to adjust cloud cover and clearing trend for this
afternoon. Also, adjusted temps a couple of degrees based on
faster clearing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Sunny, dry, and relatively warm day on tap with highs in the mid
to upper 20s across the Northland.

A short wave passes tonight into Thursday increasing
precipitation chances across the northern portions of the CWA.
Due to low probabilities of ice in the clouds, precip may fall as
freezing rain/drizzle though QPF amounts are quite light - only a
couple hundredths of an inch. This wave quickly passes for a
return to a dry period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

The Northland can expect relatively mild weather for the latter
half of the week. Warm air will push through the Northland
Thursday night and early Friday, with 850 hpa temperatures of
about 6 to 10 degrees, before a cold front pushes through the
Northland Friday. This cold front will be associated with a
passing Canadian Clipper well to the north in Manitoba and
Ontario. Despite the cold front passage, it won't be difficult for
temperatures to reach highs in the middle to upper 30s Friday
because of the relatively warm start to temperatures in the
morning. The GFS, Canadian, and European suggest there could be
light precipitation (rain and/or a wintry mix) across northern
Minnesota during the day. Saturday will still be relatively mild
with highs ranging from the low to middle 30s.

The main focus for this forecast is potential snow early next week.
The GFS, European, and Canadian have been indicating the potential
for a Colorado Low to bring snow to parts of the Upper Midwest early
next over the past few days of model runs. The latest 00Z runs
continued to indicate this potential. This storm could bring heavy
snow to the Northland, but the greatest potential for heavy snow
appears to be just to the south and southeast of the forecast area
for now based on the latest modeled tracks of the Low. Temperatures
are expected to dip back below normal early next week in the wake of
this storm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. The
concern in the near term is low level wind shear with gusty winds
aloft. Current LLWS conditions will diminish shortly, but there
will be two more periods during the evening hours and again
towards daybreak where LLWS will be a concern at most sites. This
will improve by daybreak Thursday. CIGS will then begin to lower
to MVFR overnight for KINL, KHIB and perhaps KDLH as the next
clipper system begins to move through. Some freezing drizzle will
be possible during the early morning hours at KINL with some light
snow to follow after 6AM, which may lead to MVFR VSBYs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 18 31 22 / 0 10 10 0
INL 26 17 30 20 / 0 40 10 10
BRD 27 18 34 22 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 23 15 33 20 / 0 10 10 0
ASX 27 18 33 22 / 0 10 20 0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJH
SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...BJH
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