FXUS63 KDLH 220832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
332 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

At 330 AM, variable cloud cover was found across the Northland.
Skies ranged from clear across portions of north central Minnesota
and the tip of the Arrowhead to cloudy elsewhere. Some dense fog
was found across portions of the Iron Range. Temperatures ranged
from the 50s to lower 60s.

The focus for today will be cloud cover. Despite some morning
cloud cover, it looks like we will see increasing sunshine across
the region today due to high pressure entrenched across the CWA.
High temperatures will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

A cold front is expected to move into western Minnesota tonight.
This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
western third of the CWA. The chance of showers and storms will
then move eastward across the rest of the area on Monday. The
chance of precipitation will generally decrease as the system
moves eastward. Highs on Monday will range from the upper 70s to
around 80 with winds becoming west in the afternoon. The storms
are not expected to be severe.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Surface ridging will cover the forecast area Monday night and
Tuesday. A closed upper low will be drifting through Manitoba
Tuesday night, while its surface low is in Ontario. The cold front
associated with these features will push into northeast Minnesota
late Tuesday night. Showers will spread across northeast Minnesota
through the night. Thermodynamic profiles so not support a mention
of thunder and have left out. The closed low drops into southeast
Manitoba on Wednesday. The cold front will push through northwest
Wisconsin as much colder air arrives behind the front in northeast
Minnesota. 850mb temps drop to 8C. Pieces of vorticity will move
through the area from the closed low and generate additional
showers. There is a bit more instability, but cloud cover and cold
air may limit that potential and will leave thunder mention out. The
closed low drifts to near the Arrowhead Wednesday night. Additional
vort maxes will drift through the area with some spotty showers. The
rain chance will be not as pronounced as drier air from high
pressure to the west is advected into the region. The closed low
moves into northwest Ontario by Thursday night. The cold air remains
entrenched over the region, and will combine with small vort maxes
to bring additional spotty showers and some isolated thunder to the
Arrowhead through Thursday evening. Drier air covers the rest of the
region. As the upper low moves away, this allows a positively tilted
long wave trof to move into the area, with more small vort maxes
dropping through. More spotty showers Friday afternoon over the
southwest corner of the forecast area. The aforementioned upper trof
drops through the region on Saturday with additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

High pressure moving in will filter in drier air into the region.
However, a low stratus deck currently stretching from the
International border through the Arrowhead into northern Wisconsin
will cause possible lower ceilings for all TAF sites except KBRD
tonight. Also, patchy fog formation is possible for KBRD and KHIB
but backed off on the IFR potential as the stratus deck may
inhibit the fog development. Conditions should begin to improve by
Sunday morning. VFR conditions prevail for all terminals on


DLH 73 55 78 58 / 0 10 20 10
INL 81 60 78 55 / 10 30 20 0
BRD 79 60 80 57 / 0 20 20 0
HYR 76 53 81 57 / 0 10 20 10
ASX 68 52 78 58 / 0 0 10 10




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