FXUS63 KDLH 260444
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1144 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017
Issued at 758 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017
Upper low and its associated vort max were drifting along the
international border this evening. Scattered showers were dotting
the area, with the exception of the Arrowhead where steady light
rain continued to fall. Rainfall amounts were around 1 inch with
some spots up to 1.5 inches over northern Lake county. The bulk
of this rain has been falling over an area that has been dry
recently. Latest MRMS CREST soil moisture points to the ground
being less than 50 percent saturated. Any additional rainfall will
just be absorbed into the ground with some minor runoff into area
creeks, streams, rivers. Not anticipating any flooding. Made some
adjustments based on these trends.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017
Another in a series of shortwaves was seen on water vapor imagery
moving into northern Minnesota. This wave will continue southeast
tonight with a much weaker shortwave or two forecast to move
through our far eastern area on Monday. High pressure will be
moving into western areas during the day Monday.
Rain was widespread from the Arrowhead south through Ashland/Iron
Counties late this afternoon with scattered showers further west.
A few thunderstorms were also occurring. The rain will continue in
the Arrowhead well into tonight with the showers/storms over the
rest of the Northland diminishing through the evening and ending
for most areas. Small hail and gusty winds will be possible with
the stronger showers and will be likely with any thunderstorms.
Expect the gusty northwest winds to subside through the evening.
It will be cool with most areas seeing lows in the forties.
Weaker shortwaves in northerly flow on Monday along with weak low
level troughing may lead to a few showers and an isolated
thunderstorm over part of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.
The rest of the Northland will be dry and should see partly cloudy
skies. It will be a warmer day with highs for most areas from the
mid sixties to around seventy.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017
Our prolonged stretch of cool, breezy northwest flow weather pattern
will finally come to an end Monday night. This pattern, which has
brought us daily showers and weak storms, will give way to a period
of warmer and drier weather. However, the break in the precipitation
will be short-lived. Showers and storms are in the forecast from
Tuesday night through the rest of the week.
The Northland will have light northwest flow as of Monday evening.
There will be an area of high pressure over the Northern Plains,
centered near the border between the Dakotas and Minnesota. An upper-
level ridge will be over the eastern side of the Rocky Mountains
The surface high pressure will move through the Midwest, and its
passing ridge axis through the Northland will mean a cool and clear
night. Lows should be in the 40s. The ridge axis will exit Tuesday
morning, and warm, southerly flow will develop. Solar heating and
dropping air pressure from the west will aid mixing, providing
breezy weather for many areas in the afternoon. The mixing will aid
heating, so leaned on the warmest model guidance, like the bias-
corrected nam mos. Highs should be in the middle 70s, and some areas
in the upper 70s.
The upper-level ridge, shortly followed by an upper-level trough,
will move into the Northern Plains and then Upper Midwest Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This will bring a good chance of rain and
thunderstorms to the Northland during this period and through
Wednesday evening. The GFS and NAM do not have much most unstable
CAPE, or none at all, across the northern forecast area. However,
the upper wave could be enough to generate a little thunder, so kept
thunder in the forecast for all areas. The best chances for rain and
thunder are across the southern forecast area, since the warm front
should remain near or just south of the southern forecast area, and
the associated surface low will likely move through that region.
There could be heavy rain across the southern forecast area
considering the precipitable water values near 1.5 inches and
proximity to the warm front. There may be strong to severe storms
across the southern forecast area, too, from central Minnesota into
There are significant differences between the GFS and the
Canadian/European, with the latter models being much more
progressive with the low and upper trough. The Canadian and European
have the upper trough and low exiting to the east later Wednesday
night, bringing a period of high pressure and drier weather for
Thursday. However, the GFS develops the upper trough into a low,
which stalls over the Northland and nearby region through the rest
of the week. The GFS would suggest cooler, cloudier, and wetter
weather through the remainder of the week. The Canadian and European
suggest a period of warmer and drier weather for Thursday, until
another upper-level low or trough move into the Northern Plains or
Upper Midwest late in the week, bringing another round of rain and
storms into Saturday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017
An upper level low and its vort max will drift over the Arrowhead
and into northwest Wisconsin through the forecast. Mainly VFR is
expected, even in the vicinity of showers that will affect the
terminals through the day, driven by those aforementioned
features. Gusty surface winds will develop by mid morning and
subside near sunset.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 68 49 74 / 20 10 0 0
INL 44 69 47 75 / 40 10 0 0
BRD 45 70 47 76 / 10 10 0 0
HYR 44 69 46 76 / 40 20 0 0
ASX 46 70 49 77 / 40 20 0 0
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