FXUS63 KDTX 050809
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
309 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY

A BIFURCATED FLOW PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS
ADVANCING THROUGH THE LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. HARBORED WITHIN
THIS FEATURE IS A WEAK SURFACE/MIDLEVEL COLD FRONT. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE TO NO SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALLS POSTFRONTALLY AS TRAILING
STRATUS HAS RESULTED IN A THERMAL BLANKET EFFECT. IN FACT...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A FEW DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS ROLL
IN. THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO CAA
PROCESSES IS ALLOWING FOR SATURATION TO TAKE PLACE AT ROUGHLY
2-3KFT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CLOUD COVER TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
PRIOR TO 12Z...THEN PIVOTING OVER/THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12-15Z.
FOR THE THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
CLOUDS TO BREAK/ERODE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
TALKED ABOUT WITNESSING A THERMAL INVERSION STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
MODELS WERE RESOLVING. COMPARISONS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS TO THE AMOUNT
OF UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. PROJECTING
FORWARD...THIS MAY PROVIDE FOR A LINGERING EFFECT OF CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AND BRINGS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FOCAL POINT
TO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...WILL REMAIN FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC AND CALL
FOR A CLEARING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
THAT OF PERSISTENCE WITH GENERALLY NO SIGNIFICANT THERMAL CHANGES IN
THE OFFING. THIS SUGGESTS UPPER 30S IN THE THUMB TO AROUND 40
DEGREES MOST REMAINING AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

UPPER TROUGH WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS EASTERN
NOAM DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE LAST UNSEASONABLY MILD
DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA.

THIS FIRST COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S BY
AND LARGE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER READINGS TO END THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

WHILE PERIODIC FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FROM TUESDAY ON...NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN MINOR.

&&

.MARINE...

TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL LARGE REMAIN AT 25 KNOTS
OR LESS...WITH WAVES ON LAKE HURON EVENTUALLY BUILDING TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA WITHIN NORTHEAST FLOW ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. GIVEN MARGINAL/TRANSIENT
NATURE OF THIS PERIOD...HEADLINES SEEM UNLIKELY THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

//DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION EXTENDING DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THIS COOLING PROVING SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING A
SOUTHWARD EXPANDING OVERCAST STRATUS DECK NOW WORKING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MI AT TAF ISSUANCE. EXTRAPOLATING THE MOVEMENT INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BRINGS A SOLID MVFR CEILING INTO MBS AROUND
08Z...AND INTO FNT/PTK PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THIS DECK MAY TEND TO
ERODE ON THE EDGES AS IT ARRIVES IN THE DETROIT CORRIDOR
POST-SUNRISE...BUT WILL A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC NOW GIVEN CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AT THESE
LOCALES. MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS SHALLOW...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING QUICKLY WORKING THIS DECK OUT BY LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 5000 FT 12Z-15Z SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL DURATION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR


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