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FXUS63 KDTX 151936
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
336 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Expectations for this evening largely unchanged. Generally expect a
corridor of a tenth to quarter inch, perhaps locally higher, as
showers develop along the the cold front invof M59 this evening.
Aggressively expanding clouds cast some doubt on coverage/intensity.
Isentropic ascent in advance of the MCV over central IL will support
showers over the southern CWA through this evening. Meteorological
reasoning for periods 1 & 2 can be found in the noon update.
Otherwise, the current stretch of quiet weather will continue into
early next week with ill-defined shower chances along the front
which will be parked near the MI/OH border, perhaps bubbling north
at times as upstream convective remnants latch onto the baroclinic
zone. Lows will range from the upper 40s in the north to upper 50s
from Detroit south tonight and Sunday night while clouds and marine-
modified northeast flow keep highs limited to around 70. Potential
to rebound into the mid/upper 70s Monday as pattern remains
unchanged but northeast flow abates.

A weaker high pressure will be over the state throughout the day
Tuesday keeping the region dry. Models are beginning to agree more
that the next low will begin to push into SE MI during the evening
Wednesday. The track is a bit more uncertain with the ECMWF, GFS20,
and Canadian having the low track either across the southern Metro
area or near the Ohio border, whereas the FV3 GFS is taking a more
northern track across the Tri-Cities/Thumb area. The highest
rainfall location is consequently remaining uncertain as that will
be tied to where the center of the low tracks. However rainfall
amounts with this system have been quite consistent across models
with solutions of around 1 to 1.5 inches in the peak rainfall band.
The system will push east of the area Thursday evening/night but
there could be some lingering scattered light showers into the early
hours of Friday.

There will be a brief break in rain Friday before another low begins
to approach the area from the southwest. That system is looking
to be over SE MI Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

A combination of increased pressure gradient and a low to neutral
stability profile is allowing a somewhat short fused gusty wind
scenario this morning. Gusts reached around 30 knots across Saginaw
Bay as the low level jet matured overhead and now shifts eastward
during the morning. The stronger gusts bypass the Lake Huron
shoreline for the most part but a new round of Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for Lake St Clair and western Lake Erie for
the morning. Pressure gradient eases during the afternoon as a cold
front sags southward across the central Great Lakes and then moves
through all marine areas tonight. The front supports scattered to
numerous showers with an isolated thunderstorm during peak daytime
heating mainly south of Lake Huron through tonight and Sunday. The
front is projected to remain primarily south of Lake Erie through
early next week while weak high pressure settles over the northern
and central Great Lakes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

AVIATION...

Belt of southwesterlies in place over the region has high equivalent
potential temperature air mass in place clear up through Saginaw Bay
early this afternoon. This will allow for prevailing OVC this
afternoon oscillating between low VFR and MVFR. An enhanced ribbon
of low to midlevel moisture exists immediately to the south of a
surface cold front that is advanding southeastward. Model data shows
support for some destabilization within this higher moisture this
afternoon allowing for shower initiation/development. Most likely
location to witness the activity will be somewhere along the M59
corridor. Deep cyclonic circulation/wave passing through northern IN
will pass to the south and east of SEMICH after 03Z this evening.
Localized height rises that will occur in the subsidence wake of the
shortwave will allow the surface cold front to accelerate southward
through all of the cwa between 06-12Z. Marine influence is
accentuating northeasterly flow and cloud. Latest signal supports
predominately dry conditions Sunday morning, although moist ambient
conditions will support potential for shower activity.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings aob 5kft tonight and Sunday.

* Low for thunderstorm this afternoon and tongiht.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ048.

Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC/KDK
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB


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