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FXUS63 KDTX 181933
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
333 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Cold air aloft combined with the strength of late March sun has
produced steep low level lapse rates marked by upwards of a 100
joules of cape across the area. This has lead to increasing diurnal
CU as the day wears on. Broad weak surface convergence across the
area combined with weak pva moving across southern Michigan may
produce scattered sprinkles or a few light showers into the evening
lasting a little longer into the night across the Thumb where
shortwave energy will linger. Any precip after sunset maybe become
flurries or light snow showers. Elsewhere skies will clear tonight
allowing lows to drop into the 20s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will be uneventful with a few clouds as
high pressure will resides over the area. Temperatures will be more
normal for this time of year with highs generally mid 40s and lows
around 30.

For Wednesday and Wednesday night, a strong shortwave will drop
south out of Canada into the northern Great Lakes then move east.
In the meantime a weak shortwave moving out of the Midwest will get
drawn into lower Michigan by the northern shortwave. The result
will be strengthening 850mb jet up to about 40kts. This will advect
in moisture bringing rapid increase in clouds Wednesday morning with
rain showers quickly moving in early afternoon. Highs will reach the
upper 40s on brisk southerly flow. Showers will continue through
evening before associated cold front moves through by midnight.
Precip will gradually come to an end after passage but may mix or
change to light snow before ending as cold air advects in. No
accumulations anticipated as lows drop to the low to mid 30s by
daybreak.

Looking into the extended forecast period beginning Thursday and
through the weekend, the only period where there is forecasted to be
a slight chance for precipitation is Thursday afternoon across the
Thumb region. Apart from that, high pressure will hold over the
area throughout the entire weekend. Mostly sunny skies will allow
for the warmer temperatures to make a return to spring, with highs
rounding out in the 50s.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure dominating the weather through tomorrow as it drifts
gradually to the east of the region. The result will be a stretch of
favorable marine conditions with quiet weather consisting of light
winds and limited wave action in the ice free areas. Next
opportunity for elevated winds and rain comes Tuesday night into
Wednesday with increasing southwesterly gradient flow ahead of an
advancing cold front. Gusts will reach into the 25 knot range during
with time. Post-frontal northwesterly winds will gradually diminish
Wednesday night, but remain elevated with gusts of around 15-20
knots through Thursday. Gusts nearing 30 knots arrive early Friday
morning and afternoon with a second push of cold air into the
central Great Lakes before high pressure returns bringing favorable
conditions for the weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

AVIATION...

Mostly quiet TAF period with VFR conditions prevailing through
tonight with light west to southwest winds. SCT to BKN diurnal cu
has emerged early this afternoon aided by increasing lapse rates in a
relatively cool environment. Mixing heights will increase slightly
higher over the next hour or two and remain largely VFR. Low
probability for some precipitation in the form of a rain/snow mix
later today, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs if any
activity does develop. The lower cloud deck will decrease in coverage
with the loss of daytime heating as higher based clouds drift into
the area tonight.

For DTW...Diurnal stratocu will continue to carry ceilings around
the 5000 ft level.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceiling aob 5000 ft this afternoon and evening.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRC/SP
MARINE.......AA
AVIATION.....AA


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