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FXUS63 KEAX 182041
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
341 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019

As of this afternoon, mostly sunny skies and temperatures mainly in
the lower 50s have characterized this mid-March Monday. While much
of tonight will remain quiet, a quick change in conditions are
expected in the next 12 hours. Clouds will steadily increase
overnight in advance of a strong upper wave dropping southward from
the Dakotas into the Central Plains. Increasing warm air advection
and ascent will generate widespread precipitation entering eastern
Kansas and western Missouri a couple hours prior to sunrise Tuesday,
with activity spreading from west to east during the day. With the
amount of warm air advection in advance of the system, precipitation
is expected to be in the form of all rain. Rainfall amounts will
average between 0.25-0.50". Initial indications suggest the high-end
of forecasted rainfall will have only a small increase to the
maximum crests currently projected for ongoing river flooding along
the MO River, with roughly a half-foot increase possible.
Precipitation will come to an end Tuesday night, with dry conditions
and near-seasonal temperatures expected for Wednesday and Thursday.

A warming trend is expected Friday into early next week with high
temperatures reaching above normal levels in the upper 50s to middle
60s as upper ridging builds into the central CONUS ahead of a slow-
moving, highly amplified trough over the Intermountain West.
Influence from the upper wave will likely lead to one or more rounds
of precipitation/possible thunderstorms Sunday into Monday, although
exact timing and details remain highly uncertain.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019

VFR conditions expected through the period. Ceilings will gradually
lower with scattered showers entering terminal space just before
sunrise Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair
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