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FXUS63 KEAX 212039
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
339 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

Main concerns in the near term remain focused on heavy rain and
possible flash flooding as a very moist atmosphere remains in
place. Main focus for convection this afternoon looks to be a
remnant convergent line/outflow boundary now stretching from
central Missouri west into northeastern Kansas. Storms have
been developing along this feature this afternoon with primary
impacts felt across the northern Metro so far. Convection
allowing models indicate this activity will start sliding east in
a couple of hours with attention then shifting to our north where
a cold front is set to arrive later tonight. All available
guidance shows this boundary lighting up with convection later
this evening with activity slowly settling south during the
overnight and early morning hours. Overall concerns earlier today
for flash flooding seem a bit suppressed due to faster system
movement as seen on today's model runs, however convection
currently impacting the northern Metro and precip from earlier
today has undoubtedly further primed soils for possible flash
flooding later tonight. As a result, no planned changes to the
flash flood watch with this afternoon's fcst package. With PWAT
values anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations above normal,
along with a southwesterly directed low-level jet overnight and
decent upper divergence in the right entrance region of an upper
jetstreak to our north, the atmosphere appears more than set for
heavy rain production. The only caveat that remains to be seen is
whether the faster system movement leads to less residence time
over primed basins, and thus lower precip totals than previously
forecast. Lets hope this is the case but current radar trends and
recent reports across the north side of the Metro offer
decreasing hope to this scenario and as a result, it could very
well be a busy night across the area. If there's one bit of good
news is that ongoing precip and convective overturning from
earlier convection has helped to stabilize the environment to some
degree. While a few stray severe storms cannot be ruled out, the
overall threat this evening and overnight will be focused on hydro
concerns.

Precip to quickly come to an end late Tuesday morning and
afternoon from north to south. Cool high pressure will quickly
build into the region during the afternoon tomorrow with dry
conditions persisting right through mid/late week. Unseasonably
cool air will filter into our region with high temps from
Wednesday through Friday struggling to reach the 80 degree mark.
High pressure across the Great Lakes and a southwestward extending
surface ridge axis look to keep our region dry through late week
before rain chances reappear as we head into the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

Challenging fcst in the near term as latest radar trends continue
to show light precipitation over the area. Most likely impacts in
the near term are expected at STJ and MCI where light shwr
activity will be possible through 21z. Otherwise, attention will
then shift towards the late evening when fcst models show the best
chance for organized shwr/storm activity as a cold front slides
south over the region. As this occurs, expect widespread
shwr/storm coverage with all sites having the opportunity to fall
below MVFR and IFR thresholds. Considering the uncertainty of
timing this afternoon, with allow later updates the opportunity to
address expected restrictions once trends become better
established.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
morning for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
morning for MOZ012>016-020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-
054.

&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32
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