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FXUS63 KEAX 181133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
533 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 303 AM CST FRI JAN 18 2019

Water vapor imagery with 1.5PVU pressure overlaid shows the winter
storm that will affect the region moving through the Great Basin.
At the surface, high pressure over the Great Lakes and lee troughing
in the central High Plains has resulted in generally light southeast
winds. As the day progresses, the upper wave will make steady
eastward progress, deepen the lee side trough and shift the low into
Oklahoma. This will push an inverted surface trough into the area
that will eventually shift southward, shifting winds to north, and
allowing very cold air to drain into the region. During the day
today, the transition line should be just north of the Missouri
River by the afternoon hours. As the cold air deepens and advects
into the forecast area, this line will track to the south so that by
midnight, most of the forecast area will have transitioned to snow.
Winds will increase as the surface low tracks to the south of the
forecast area and the pressure gradient tightens. With the cold air
deepening, snow ratios should increase and the nature of the snow
will become fluffier. With the winds potentially gusting in the 35
to 40 mph range, this will likely lead to blowing snow, further
reducing visibility.

Regarding snow amounts, the main change was to increase amounts
some, mainly in our northeastern quadrant of counties. With around
6 inches forecast and the combination of wind leading to blowing
snow, will upgrade the winter storm watch area to a winter storm
warning. Other, amounts through the KC metro look on track with 2 to
4 inches expected in a south to north gradient.

Overall, the system looks to be rather quick-hitting, with
snowfall winding down by Saturday afternoon in our eastern zones.
Have kept the ending times of the winter weather advisory and
warning the same since there could be blowing snow persisting into
the afternoon, despite the precipitation exiting. But later shifts
can assess the end times of the headlines in later forecast and
refine them as needed.

Another storm may affect the region in the middle of next week,
Tuesday into Wednesday. At the moment, this system looks progressive
and while it may produce snow, its progressive nature should limit
accumulations.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST FRI JAN 18 2019

IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility will persist this morning
ahead of winter storm expected to affect the region later today
through Saturday morning. Light southeast winds this morning will
increase and begin to back to the east and eventually northeast
this evening. Winds will begin to gust to 30 to 35 kts as the
winds shift to the northeast. The transition from rain to snow
will be over the KC area this afternoon but by midnight will have
shifted south such all terminals will be seeing snow and blowing
snow. Light snow and blowing snow will persist through the end of
the forecast with conditions improving after sunrise Saturday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
Saturday for KSZ057-060-103>105.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon CST Saturday for
KSZ025-102.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
Saturday for MOZ021-028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon CST Saturday for
MOZ001-002-011-012-020.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST
Saturday for MOZ003>008-013>017-022>025-031>033.

&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB
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