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FXUS63 KEAX 161104
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
604 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 324 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

Early this morning, an effective front that was associated with the
severe storms across our area last night, has pushed south of the
CWA. However, the actual cold front remains across northeastern
Kansas and northwestern Missouri. This front will very slowly sink
south today. As we move into the late afternoon a upper level trough
will move into the region. Models suggest this feature will provide
enough forcing for storms to develop along and south of the cold
front. Models suggest the surface front will be situated somewhere
between the I-70 to Highway 50 corridors. It is in these areas and
south that thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
and evening. Through Sunday night into Monday the surface front
remains over the southern CWA as the upper level trough slowly moves
across southern Missouri. This will continue thunderstorm chances
across the southern CWA through Monday night when the upper level
trough finally shifts east of the area. Highs today will be in the
low to mid 80s with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Monday.

Tuesday a upper level trough along the US/Canada border will push
eastward into the northern Great Lakes. This will force a sagging
cold front into the forecast area. Upper level flow will be quasi-
zonal across our region. Several shortwaves moving through the area
on the quasi-zonal flow will allow thunderstorms to develop along
the nearly stationary front beginning Tuesday afternoon and
continuing into Thursday before a stronger shortwave trough pushes
the front southeast of the area. High Tuesday through Thursday will
be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will reassert
itself over the region on Friday. Continued shortwaves embedded in
the quasi-zonal flow are expected Friday night into Saturday night.
Models suggest a nocturnal LLJ may enhance storms across our area
Friday and Saturday night bringing the chance for heavy rain to the
area. All told with several of rounds still expected through the
next week, the area could receive an additional 2 to 4 inches of
rain which will continue or aggravate local flooding.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

VFR conds are expected to prevail thru the TAF pd with decreasing
high clouds throughout the day before bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds move
into the TAF sites tonight. Winds will be out of the SW btn
5-10kts thru the first few hours of the TAF pd before a cold front
sags thru the terminals veering winds to the NW btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73
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