FXUS63 KEAX 121143
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

CONTINUE TO WATCH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOT AROUND THE
REGION...TURNING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI TODAY.
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING UNDER AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
CIRCULATION. EXPECT SAME PRECIP TYPES TO OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING. PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
BY 00Z SAT.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SECOND PV ANOMALY NOW MAKING
ITS NORTHWARD TURN OVER ARKANSAS. THIS CIRCULATION GETS CAUGHT UP IN
THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM AND WRAPS BACK WEST ACROSS MISSOURI TONIGHT.
THE SECONDARY PV ANOMALY BRINGS AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE...LEADING TO STEADY OR RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXACERBATING AREA FLOOD PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...HOWEVER LIMITED TO THE
MID 40S BY CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE MULTI-VORT LOBE SYSTEM
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST BY LATE SATURDAY...GETTING CAUGHT UP IN
THE SOUTHERN JET. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

NRR


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z...A MATURE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SINKING SOUTH FROM
WESTERN IOWA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE
WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW HAS KEPT ALL THE TERMINALS UNDER MVFR CLOUDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 12Z TAF CYCLE...WITH SURFACE WINDS THAT VEER FROM
WEST TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH. ONLY
WRINKLE MIGHT BE THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER
OF THE LOW...WHICH IS ACCOMPANIED BY IFR CEILINGS. CURRENT TRENDS IN
RADAR HAS THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A SLIGHTLY LESS
LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POTENTIAL FOR STILL MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LEFT THE TIMING FOR THE PRECIP UNCHANGED...BUT DID
REMOVE THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE MORNING TEMPO GROUP GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY MIGHT STILL SEE SOME
FLAKES MIXED IN AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES OVER THE
TERMINALS.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$




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