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FXUS63 KEAX 172321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 224 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2018

A band of light to moderate snowfall has developed across far
northern Missouri into southern Iowa as of the early afternoon
hours. This activity will continue to affect the northern counties
through the late evening hours, with accumulating snowfall on the
order of 1 to 2 inches possible. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect until midnight to account for accumulating snow,
in addition to possible blowing snow as wind gusts in excess of
20 mph will persist through the afternoon and evening hours. The
southern extent of this activity comes into question as the mid-
level west to east steering is limiting a notable southern push,
at least at the present. Additionally, most of the forcing
associated with the precip is in the form of a PV anomaly just
ahead of a shortwave trough. With that said, still expecting at
least some elevated frontogenetical support, helping to expand
ongoing precip to the south as far as the I-70 corridor. Overall,
however, expecting minimal accumulations south of Highway 36. Will
nonetheless need to be mindful of slick spots out there this
evening and overnight where precip does fall. Existing relatively
warm road temps will help to mitigate impacts through the
afternoon hours. May also see a transition to a wintry mix as
precip pushes south before all activity tapers off Sunday morning.
Cold advection will persist behind the surface cold front until
early Monday morning. Overnight lows tonight and Sunday night will
dip into the mid 20s, while wind chill values for both nights
will drop into the teens. Cold advection and a slow clearing of
cloud cover on Sunday will keep afternoon highs into the mid to
upper 30s.

Warming conditions are then expected as the work week kicks off. An
upstream ridging pattern and lingering surface high pressure will
maintain dry and warmer conditions, with high temps peaking in the
40s for Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, will
see temps approach seasonal norms, generally in the mid 50s.
Regional travel continues to look ideal across the area on Tuesday
and Wednesday. However, those traveling on Friday may have to
contend with precip across much of the area, though temps continue
to favor all rain for this event.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2018

A cold front swept south across the region today, bringing low end
MVFR CIGs to the terminals this afternoon. Behind the front some
post-frontal snow is falling across the Missouri-Iowa border. Snow
will settle south a bit in the KSTJ terminal, but will likely
most be dissipating as it tries to settle into KC. Otherwise,
expect cloud cover to slowly lift Sunday morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
MOZ001>006-011-012.

&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Cutter
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