FXUS63 KEAX 242340
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
640 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
Issued at 222 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018
This afternoon/tonight: Focus this afternoon remains on the
potential for scattered thunderstorms for roughly the southwest half
of the forecast area. MCV evident over south central Kansas slowly
moving east will allow for convection to develop this afternoon near
and in advance of the feature within a broad warm sector. Anemic
shear profiles and modest instability will help mitigate widespread
severe weather concerns, although a stronger storm with gusty winds
cannot be ruled out. Activity will tend to wane during the
evening with boundary layer cooling. A second round of
thunderstorms will be possible late overnight to around sunrise,
although confidence is lower with scenario. Several model members
develop convection during the late evening over NW KS, and send
this cluster ESEward. There is some potential for additional
convection, perhaps from thunderstorm outflow, to spawn renewed
thunderstorms near or across the western sections of the forecast
area late tonight.
Friday: Uncertainty remains to the aforementioned coverage of
convection at sunrise across the forecast area, and this will likely
have influence on the degree of destabilization for later in the day.
An upper trough over the northern CONUS will provide a glancing shot
of ascent as a weak cold front approaches far NW MO before stalling.
Several models suggest redevelopment ahead of the front, perhaps
focused on residual outflow/differential heating boundaries within
the warm sector. Deep layer shear remains weak, but assuming
moderate instability can develop by afternoon in the wake of
potential AM storms, a few strong storms will be possible with brief
strong wind gusts and small hail. Convection should clear the area
during the late evening and overnight hours.
Saturday and beyond: Heights will rise and upper ridging builds into
the central CONUS. The end result will be a continued period of hot
and humid conditions. Afternoon highs will warm into the 90s for
most areas during the holiday weekend, with heat indicies reaching
the middle 90s.
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018
Tricky forecast with ongoing thunderstorms south of the terminals
with cast off -shra to the north affecting the terminals. Those
shra will cont for a few hours so have included tempo for
-shra with no cig/vis restrictions. A upper level shortwave is
movg through SE KS currently and is enhancing convection which
hi-res models wanting to persist through the overnight hours.
However, better chances for storms would appear south of the
terminals Beyond that expect diurnal cu around 4kft to develop
late tomorrow morning. Winds will be out of the south tonight
before veering to the SW tomorrow while remaining btn 5-10kts.
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