FXUS66 KEKA 042257
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
300 PM PST THU DEC 4 2008
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO PLACE OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH COAST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. COASTAL STRATUS
OFF THE MENDOCINO COAST WILL HANG IN THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG IN TRINITY COUNTY AND
COLD TEMPS WITH PROTECTED AREAS IN TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT THE FOG AND STRATUS FROM RETURNING TO
THE COAST BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING. THESE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALSO ENHANCE DAYTIME TEMPS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST FROM THE NW. COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE
WITH A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE WILL
END LATE SUNDAY. KOENEKE
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG STANDING DRY WEATHER PATTERN. SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE IN MINUTIA DETAILS DAY 5-7 AS USUAL. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THU. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
THERE ARE UNKNOWNS AND UNCERTAINTIES...SO KEPT 10% POPS THROUGH WED
FOR A FEW SPATS OF DRIZZLE...INCREASING TO 15-20% ON THU AS A WEAK
FRONT PASSES TO OUR NORTH. DJB
&&
.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY EXCEPT FOR
AIRFIELDS ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP CEILINGS VFR ALONG THE COASTAL TAF
SITES WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. WHILE
NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN...DRYING CONDITIONS AT UKI THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN SEEN IN RECENT MORNINGS. KL
&&
.MARINE...LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE WATERS TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS IS NOT VERY GOOD
STILL...WITH VARIATIONS IN STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. KL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PZZ470.
&&
$$
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