FXUS66 KEKA 042249
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
249 PM PST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NARROW UPPER RIDGE HOLDING FIRM OVER THE PAC COAST.
THICKER CLOUDINESS REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AHEAD OF UPPER TROF.
UPPER TROF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO
PRODUCE A CUT OFF LOW OVER UT BY MON. UPSTREAM TROF IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS W COAST RIDGE
SHIFTS A BIT E. AS IT DOES...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE S PORTION OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...MAINLY S OF CAPE MENDO. AS MID SHIFT
MENTIONED...MODELS ARE DELAYING ONSET OF PRECIP. AS A RESULT...
HAVE CUT THE 12-HOUR MON NIGHT GRID IN 1/2 WITH LOWER POPS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE HALF INCH IN THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF THE S. S FLOW AND HIGHEST MOISTURE
TO THE S WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS W AND N OF HIGHER TERRAIN
FEATURES. SNOW LEVELS WILL COME DOWN MON AND TUE...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED GENERALLY TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500 FT.

THE UPPER TROF WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE A NEARLY CUT OFF LOW OVER S
CA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO N CA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT S AND BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE PAC COAST. LATE IN THE
WEEK...ANOTHER PAC TROF WILL APPROACH THE COAST...AND THIS
NECESSITATES AT LEAST CLIMO POPS BY NEXT WEEKEND. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AIRPORTS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE FRONT MOVES NEAR THE WATERS ON MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL POSSIBLY
REACH GALE FORCE OR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. ALONG WITH BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SEAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WINDS A SOUTHWEST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM THE TROUGH TO
OUR WEST WILL BUILD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL DIMINISH
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL ENTERS THE WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY WATCHES ATTM. THE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
3 PM PST SUNDAY PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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