FXUS66 KEKA 172310
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
310 PM PST Thu Jan 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Another weather system will bring periods of rain
through this weekend. High pressure and drier weather conditions
are expected next week.
.DISCUSSION...Shower activity will decrease in both coverage and
intensity tonight as stability increases in response to mid level
warming. Rain chances will increase again on Friday as a warm
front quickly approaches the north coast. Rain will likely increase
in coverage and become steadier across most of the forecast area
by Friday afternoon and evening, especially north of Cape
Mendocino. High resolution model guidance indicates possible
downsloping around the greater Eureka area Friday afternoon as
southerly winds increase. This will limit the rain amounts for
the coastal plain around Eureka. Most of the rain will be concentrated
over Del Norte county through Saturday, while a cold front stalls
just offshore the Oregon coast. A mid level shortwave trough will
push the cold front through NW California Saturday night/Sunday
morning, with showers expected to follow Sunday afternoon and
evening. The GFS and ECMWF have been trending wetter with the
weekend storm, with a long duration of light/moderate rain and
brief heavy rain. Totals may exceed 2 inches across much of
Humboldt, with as much as 4 to 6 inches across Del Norte County by
Sunday evening. Much lighter amounts, from a half inch to an inch
and a half are expected for eastern Trinity and Mendocino
counties over the 3-day period from Friday through Sunday.
Winds will be locally gusty over the exposed high terrain and
some of the coastal headlands. The atmosphere will be much more
stable and lower elevation may not be as gusty as the last storm.
A wind advisory may be needed for gusts to 40 to 50 mph Friday
afternoon or evening around coastal Del Norte county and the
higher elevations of Del Norte and Humboldt counties.
A break in the wet weather is expected next week, with a large
ridge aloft expected to dominate the pattern across the eastern
Pacific and West Coast. Expect inland morning valley fog early in
the week...otherwise there is high confidence in dry, mild and
sunny weather all of next week into next weekend.
.AVIATION...A post frontal unstable airmass resulted in numerous
flight hazards moving through the aviation region. Thunder,
lightning, small hail along with gusty winds and reduced Cigs/Vis
were observed. Many of these adverse conditions were associated
with a strong line of convection late morning into early
afternoon. Winds will continue to diminish at the Taf sites this
evening, but will rev up again Friday at coastal airports. There
is also a threat of LLWS at CEC and ACV Friday afternoon. Rain,
associated with another weather disturbance will affect all
terminals on Friday. This system will lower conditions into MVFR
and briefly IFR at UKI. ACV and CEC will prevail in VFR until
later in the day when intermittent MVFR expected. /TA
.MARINE...Large W swell will continue to gradually subside tonight
and on Friday, and the Hazardous Seas Warning continues through
early Friday morning. SW winds will continue to gradually diminish
this evening, then begin to increase again out of the S late tonight
and on Friday ahead of another frontal system. Winds will reach gale
force over the N outer waters by late morning Friday, and a Gale
Warning has been hoisted. Winds and short period seas will diminish
over the weekend, but lingering W swell will keep combined seas
elevated into early next week. /SEC
.HYDROLOGY...A Hydrologic Statement continues for the Eel River
at Fernbridge, as the river has just risen above monitor stage and
is forecast to remain over monitor stage until late this evening.
/SEC & WCI
.BEACH HAZARDS/COASTAL FLOODING...High astronomical high tides
(king tides) will occur on Sunday and into early next week. Tidal
anomalies will likely lead to higher tide levels. Minor coastal
flooding is possible during the daily late morning and early
afternoon high tides, with the highest astronomical tides expected
on Monday. Low tides will be lower than usual during this period
as well. /SEC
CA...High Surf Warning until 5 AM PST Fri for CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Hazardous Seas Warning til 5 AM PST Fri for PZZ450-455-470-475.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Fri to midnight PST Fri night for PZZ470.
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