FXUS66 KEKA 152100
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
200 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will gradually moderate across interior
northwest California through early next week, and then cool during
the second half of the week. Meanwhile along the coast, low clouds
will be likely on a nightly basis with some clearing taking place
late in the afternoon. Otherwise, little if any precipitation is
expected across the region during the next seven days.
.DISCUSSION...A weak upper disturbance was moving east across
northern CA during Saturday afternoon. That feature combined with
strong destabilization over the interior mountains was aiding in
isolated shower development. A few showers may evolve into
thunderstorms late in the afternoon or early evening over portions
of Trinity and northeastern Mendocino Counties. Otherwise,
visible satellite imagery shows marine stratus along the coast
gradually dissipating. However, short-term model guidance
indicates stratus will redevelop tonight, and continue to re-occur
on a nightly basis through much of the upcoming week.
Heading into early next week...model guidance shows a midlevel
ridge accompanied by subsidence and warming aloft developing over
northern CA. That feature will favor high temperatures in the 90s
to low 100s across interior valleys during Monday and Tuesday. In
addition, a modest offshore component at 850 mb may shunt a marine
airmass westward from the coast, which would increase the
probability for highs in the 60s and 70s.
The previously mentioned ridge is expected to transition back to
northwesterly flow aloft by late in the week. That pattern will
continue to favor dry conditions, with the probability of
precipitation hovering around zero through the extended forecast
.AVIATION...Mostly LIFR to IFR conditions have persisted along
the coast through midday, with the marine stratus continuing its
retreat toward the immediate coast. As a result, visibilities came
up late around mid-morning at both coastal terminals, with
ceilings continuing to slowly rise. Some clearing will be likely
later this afternoon and evening along coast. Low ceilings and
visibilities will once again be likely at both coastal terminals
late this evening and tonight, with some light drizzle possible
late tonight as a disturbance moves out of the the area.
Elsewhere, low clouds will be possible across the interior valleys
tonight, but mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the TAF period.
.MARINE...The Hazardous Seas Warning over the southern outer
waters was allowed to expire, with seas falling below Hazardous
Seas criteria and into the Small Craft range. The Hazardous Seas
Warning over the northern waters will persist through midday
Sunday. Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisories are in place. Gusty
northerlies will continue through most of the forecast period,
with strongest winds expected across the outer waters and
near/downwind of Point Saint George and Cape Mendocino. Winds are
forecast to reach Gale Force in strength by Sunday afternoon
across these areas. As a result, have upgraded the Gale Watches to
Gale Warnings. Overall coverage of the two inner waters zones
looks to be lacking, but this will need to continue to be
monitored. Gale Force gusts will certainly be possible along the
immediate boundaries of the outer and inner waters. Seas are
forecast to build to 14 to 15 feet across portions of outer waters
by late Monday. These hazardous seas will possibly propagate into
the northern inner zone, so have issued a Hazardous Seas Watch
from late Sunday afternoon through early Monday night. Otherwise,
a long-period southwesterly and a mid-period westerly swell will
move through the waters over the next several days.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until
5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ450.
Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday
night for PZZ450.
Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday night for
Hazardous Seas Warning until noon PDT Sunday for PZZ470.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ455.
Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT Sunday for PZZ475.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ475.
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