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FXUS66 KEKA 232232
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
332 PM PDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and very warm weather in store for NW California for
this week. Some areas in Mendocino County will see highs getting
into the mid 90s. No precipitation expected this week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The forecasted dry and very warm week across NW
California is still on track. As of early afternoon, temperatures
along the coast are in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Temperatures in
inland areas are into the 80s, with Hopland seeing temperatures
crossing the 90 degree mark. Temperatures are running about 10 to 20
degrees above normal.

Models are confident about the anomalous warm conditions that NW
California will be seeing. A strong upper level ridge will establish
itself from Baja California Sur to Oregon. Models progged the 500-mb
height of around 595 dm, which is much above normal (around 180 m to
240 m positive anomalies in this case) for this time of year. The
850-mb temperature on Monday is about 19 C, and it is expected to
reach 22 to 23 C on Tuesday. This suggested that most of the areas
will see even warmer conditions than on Monday. The warmest
locations will be in southern Mendocino County, with highs in the
low to mid 90s in Ukiah, Hopland, and Potter Valley. Trinity County
will be slightly cooler, with highs in the low 80s. Coastal areas
should see temperatures surpassing the 70 degree mark.

There will be some localized area of fog for overnight tonight into
tomorrow morning, especially for Humboldt Bay, Eel River and Trinity
River drainage basins. If the fog lingers through the morning, then
it will reduce the amount of daytime heating those places get and
thus slightly cooler daytime temperatures.

The ridge of high pressure will then park itself over the West Coast
of North America. This will allow the warm and dry conditions
through the weekend into the weekend. There will be a weak cold
front that makes its way across the area from the north Wednesday
night, and it will not do much other than reinforcing the dry
offshore flow over the area.

Forecast confidence is above average. CHanges to the previous
forecast package is minor. /RCL

&&

.AVIATION...Skies have cleared up along the coast this afternoon.
Tonight along the coast some fog is expected once again. Locally
dense areas are possible. This may bring some LIFR conditions, but
these may be localized. The offshore flow is expected to keep most
of this away from KCEC and KACV, but confidence is low on this.
Skies are expected to clear by mid morning. MKK

&&

.MARINE...Northwest winds of 10 to 20 kt continue across the area
this afternoon. Models are showing These are expected to slowly
diminish tonight and Tuesday. Models are showing a showing short
period wind driven waves of 4 to 8 feet. The highest waves are
well offshore. Tonight and Tuesday these waves will diminish.
Wednesday models are in decent agreement on winds building back
into the area. Current models show periods of gale force gusts,
but for now this look to be only a fairly brief period on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. So have held off on issuing a
gale watch. Winds will start to diminish again on Thursday and
look to be light on Friday and Saturday.

A northwest swell of around 9 feet at 12 seconds continues to
move across the waters. Another swell around 18 to 20 seconds has
started to move into the waters. The periods will diminish fairly
rapidly on the longer period swell this evening and they will
essentially combine later tonight. This swell will be around 10
feet at 15 seconds. This expected to slowly diminish through the
week to around 4 feet at 12 seconds on Wednesday. Next weekend
another very long period swell is expected to move into the
waters. Models are still struggling with the exact timing and
height, but have been showing it consistently for the last few
model runs. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ101-
103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ450-455.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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