FXUS66 KEKA 152103
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
203 PM PDT MON MAR 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BRISK NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION UNDER
WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO SPREAD OVER
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT NEARING 130W AS OF 2 PM. CLOUD
COVER AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WHICH MEANS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS STILL HAVE THE FRONT MOVING ONTO THE NORTH COAST TUESDAY
MORNING BY 18Z. LATEST GFS HAS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST DROPS WILL HIT PAVEMENT BEFORE NOON.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING...THE LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE COAST. SO INCREASED POPS JUST A TAD
IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE CASE THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN. THE HIGHEST
POPS ARE CENTERED OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY...TAPERING OFF TO ZERO IN
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MENDOCINO AND FAR EASTERN TRINITY. EVEN THOUGH
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS WEAKENING...IT WILL BRING A PUSH OF MOIST
AIR...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN TO HUMBOLDT...DEL NORTE AND PERHAPS IN
WESTERN TRINITY COUNTIES. CURRENT QPF HAS ABOUT 0.20 INCH OVER DEL
NORTE COUNTY...0.10 INCH SOUTH TO EUREKA...AND 0.01 INCH OR ZERO
OVER MOST OF TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. IT WON'T BE MUCH
RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND BRISK
NORTH WINDS SHOULD FOLLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOOKS TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PEAK ON
THU OR FRI WHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMING PEAKS. WE CLOUDS SEE
A HANDFUL OF MAX-T'S IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE WARMEST
INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MOSTLY LOWER 60S ON THE COAST. SATURDAY STILL
LOOKS DRY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF...SO I MADE NO CHANGES HERE.
MODELS BECOME CHAOTIC ON SUN AND MON...WITH GFS ENSEMBLE HINTING
AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. THEREFORE...I
KEPT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO POPS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX-T.
IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE SPRING IS RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. DJB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KCEC AFTER SUNRISE. -RA MAY IMPACT COASTAL
LOCATIONS AFT 15Z. JCA

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 42N 135W WILL MOVE NE INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TUE AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUE MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE NRN
OUTER WATERS. A LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY THIS LOW WILL ENTER THE
WATERS TUE EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 17 FT OVERNIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NE PACIFIC ON WED CREATING A
STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT. A GALE AND HAZ SEAS WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY WEEKS END. JCA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3
AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ450-455. GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON PZZ470-475. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ470-475. HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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