FXUS64 KEPZ 120942
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
242 AM MST FRI MAR 12 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHTER WINDS AND SUNNIER SKIES ARE ON TAP FOR THE BORDERLAND
TODAY AFTER THE EXIT OF YESTERDAY'S STORM SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS TODAY AND THAT WILL HELP TO
DRY THE REGION...LIGHTEN THE WINDS...AND BEGIN A BRIEF WARMUP.
LATE SUNDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOR MONDAY MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ABUNDANT CLOUDS...AND CHANCES FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND
MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE AREAS
MOST AFFECTED LOOK TO BE MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK
OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WILL FOLLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS MORNING. MODEL PROG MOVE THIS LARGE FEATURE
OVER THE CWFA TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. TODAY NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MODERATE WARMING
BUT WE'LL SEE SOME WARMING OF TEMPS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS. SATURDAY TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL WITH LIGHT
WINDS TURNING S-SW AND SUNNY SKIES UNDER THE RIDGE.
IN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
INBOUND FROM THE NW WITH ARRIVAL OVER THE GILA SUNDAY PM. MODELS
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITHIN AND BETWEEN THEMSELVES IN BOTH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW IS PRETTY
COMPACT SO IT'S TRACK WILL BE VERY CRITICAL RELATIVE TO WHERE THE
BIGGEST WEATHER AFFECTS ARE EXPERIENCED. CURRENT GFE/DGEX/ECMWF
ALL HAVE THE SAME PLACEMENTS WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE NM
BOOTHEEL ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE COOLING INBOUND FROM THE EAST. THUS WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW MONDAY OVER THE
FAR EAST ZONES. THE GILA LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. BUT THE SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY
ELEVATED AND THE AREA IS ONLY BRUSHED WITH THE MOISTURE/COLD
AIR/DYNAMICS COMBO. THE AREA TO WATCH FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND IN PARTICULAR THE EAST SLOPES. WITH
THE SYSTEM DROPPING IN TO THE WEST OF THAT AREA...AND A SURFACE
FRONT PRESSING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS AREA WILL SEE DEEP
ENHANCEMENT OF UPSLOPE CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO STRONG DYNAMICS
AND THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS. THUS HIGHLIGHT PRODUCTS FOR HEAVY SNOW
LOOK PROBABLE FOR THE SAC ZONE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MODELS SHOW NOW...20 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
SO AFTER A WARMUP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WE
WILL SEE A SHARP DIP IN TEMPS TO START THE WEEK DUE TO THIS COLD
CORE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
THE SYSTEM IS PROGED TO EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER. THUS A RETURN TO NORMAL
TEMPS...DRIER CONDITIONS...AND LIGHTER WINDS TO COMPLETE THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 12/12Z-13/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS AND ROUTES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR WINDS RELAXED. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFICS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE LAST UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM HAS LEFT THE AREA TO BE REPLACED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMING WILL BEGIN TODAY...HOWEVER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE WARMING TO
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FIRST
AFFECTING THE GILA REGION...AND EXIT LATE MONDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED CLOUDS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. SOME HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE AREA THAT APPEARS MOST AFFECTED
WILL BE THE RIDGES AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WHERE OVER 20 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE. AFTER LEAVING THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE SETTLE OVER
THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. RESULTS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 64 36 71 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA TX 62 33 68 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 63 33 71 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 61 32 65 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 45 23 50 20 44 / 0 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 33 70 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 58 25 62 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 20
DEMING 64 30 70 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 64 29 69 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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