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FXUS64 KEPZ 210953
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
253 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front and an upper disturbance bring dry weather with
below normal temperatures to southern New Mexico and west Texas
today and Thursday. Westerly winds will cause warmer weather on
Friday. However a low pressure system with a cold front will also
produce windy conditions on Friday followed by cooler below
normal temperatures again Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Westerly
winds will bring warmer continued dry weather next Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mean upper medium wave trough will continue to cover the western
United States into next week with series of embedded
impulses/waves ejecting across the southern Rockies. A weaker
short wave will move across southern new Mexico/west Texas today
with little effect outside of some mid and high clouds. But a
weak cold front will move east to west into the CWA today possibly
moving as far west as the Deming area. The easterly flow behind
the front will advect modified Canadian air with today's high
temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Even locations
west of the front will experience cool temperatures as cooler air
associated with upper trough flows into the area. Front will
likely remain quasi stationary around the Rio Grande tonight
before westerly winds push it east of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

Upper low will move into the Great Basin Friday with associated
trough axis swinging eastward across Arizona on Friday and then
across New Mexico and west Texas Friday night. Downslope flow and
then upper divergence ahead of system will concurrently induce lee
cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado with surface trough axis
trailing southward into eastern New Mexico. Consequently this
scenario will strengthen low and mid level pressure/height
gradients with 50 kt winds developing at 700 mb. This pattern will
support windy conditions across the CWA Friday afternoon and
evening with surface wind speeds probably around advisory levels.
Little moisture is attendant with the system so have outlooked
only slight chances for light precip over the Gilas.

The westerly winds will advect warmer air on Friday but a Pacific
cold front will move eastward across the CWA Friday night.
Persistent cool air advection behind the front will keep high
temperatures around 7 to 10 degrees below Saturday through Monday
as another weaker upper wave moves across the CWA Sunday.
Southwest winds will transport warmer air back into the region and
support near near normal temperatures on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 21/12z-22/12z.
VFR conditions with skies SCT-BKN070-100. Surface winds mostly
from 10 to 20 kt this afternoon decreasing to around 5 to 10 kt
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front and an upper disturbance bring dry weather with
below normal temperatures to southern New Mexico and west Texas
today and Thursday. Temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal today and Thursday with wind speeds around 10 to 20 mph in
the afternoon. Westerly winds will cause warmer weather on
Friday with near normal temperatures. However a low pressure
system with a cold front will also produce windy conditions on
Friday followed by cooler below normal temperatures again
Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Winds will gust around 40 to 50 mph
Friday afternoon and evening with higher gusts possible mountains
and eastern slopes. Westerly winds will bring warmer continued
dry weather next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 61 35 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 62 32 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 58 32 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 55 33 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 39 23 39 25 / 10 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 54 31 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 48 26 48 26 / 20 0 0 0
Deming 57 31 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 56 29 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 60 37 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 61 29 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 66 35 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 57 32 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 63 33 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 59 33 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 58 33 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 57 28 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 58 31 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 59 32 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 58 34 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 46 24 48 28 / 10 0 0 0
Mescalero 45 25 46 28 / 10 0 0 0
Timberon 44 24 46 28 / 10 0 0 0
Winston 47 21 48 21 / 20 0 0 0
Hillsboro 52 27 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 54 29 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 46 20 46 20 / 20 0 0 0
Hurley 51 24 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 53 21 53 22 / 10 0 0 0
Mule Creek 49 24 49 27 / 10 0 0 0
Faywood 52 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 58 29 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 58 30 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 60 30 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 55 30 53 30 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash
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