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FXUS64 KEPZ 202144
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
344 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with temperatures a few degrees above normal will
continue on Thursday. A deepening trough over the west coast will
begin to pull up some moisture from Mexico on Friday, with showers
and thunderstorms expected near and east of the Rio Grande Friday
afternoon and Saturday. A few storms may become severe, with
strong winds and hail a possibility. The best chance for
precipitation will be over eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties.
Drier air will prevail for Sunday and Monday. A backdoor cold
front will bring cooler temperatures for Tuesday, and may interact
with another upper level storm system and bring another shot at
showers and thunderstorms for a wider area on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry westerly flow aloft continues across the area, with a marked
decrease in low level moisture as well. Surface dewpoints range
from the mid-40s along and south of I-10 to the upper-20s at
KTCS. Combined with strong capping aloft, we barely have a few Cu
popping up, mostly in the New Mexico Bootheel.

The pattern will start to shift tomorrow (Thu) as a broad trough
over the Pacific Northwest amplifies and digs south towards the
Great Basin. Upper level moisture will start to stream up from the
Sierra Madres, but in terms of precip, Thursday looks to remain
dry area-wide.

For Friday, a narrow band of subtropical moisture looks to set up
mainly along and east of an ALM-ELP line. Increasing deep layer
wind shear and moderate CAPE (1000-1500 J/Kg over the Otero Mesa
and Hudspeth County) will lead to organized thunderstorms,
possibly severe.

Low level moisture looks to get a boost on Saturday as SE low
level flow increases, with upper-50s and lower 60s dewpoints
advecting into areas east of ELP. Deep layer (0-6km AGL) shear of
30 to 40 knots and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg suggests a better risk
of severe thunderstorms. Steep lapse rates in the -10 to -20C
layer and Wet Bulb Zero heights around 8000' suggest enhanced hail
risk.

While the focus for thunderstorms will mainly be east of El Paso
(the city) on Friday, Saturday is a little more in question and
will depend on how deep the low level moisture push ends up being.
As of now, the risk for ELP looks a little higher Saturday versus
Friday.

Drier air will push in from the west on Sunday. A backdoor cold
front is still on track for Monday Night/Tuesday morning, likely
heralded by downslope winds along west-facing mountain slopes,
followed by slightly below normal temperatures to the area for
Tuesday. An approaching upper level low over Arizona could result
in an overrunning situation with more widespread thunderstorms
possible behind the front on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...Westerly flow over the region
will is bringing drier conditions to most areas...with CLR to
SCT070-100. Sfc winds GNLY 250-280 / 12G22KTS 18-03Z then
270/10kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and warm weather conditions will continue for another couple of
days. Westerly winds Wednesday afternoon will be occasionally gusty,
but should stay below critical levels. Min RH's the next two days
will be in the 20's in the lowlands and in the 30's in the
mountains. By Friday and Saturday a slight chance for rain, mainly
east of the Rio Grande will return. Min RH's for Sunday and Monday
will be in the teens west of the river and in the 20's and 30's east
of the river. Cooler temperatures and rain chances are forecast to
spread back across much of the area for the start of next week as an
upper trough from the west starts to interact with a subtropical
moisture plume.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 71 94 71 92 / 0 0 0 20
Sierra Blanca 67 91 67 89 / 0 0 0 40
Las Cruces 60 90 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 62 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 20
Cloudcroft 47 68 47 68 / 0 0 0 50
Truth or Consequences 61 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 55 82 55 78 / 0 0 0 10
Deming 58 90 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 60 89 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 70 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 10
Dell City 61 94 65 92 / 0 0 0 40
Fort Hancock 68 95 69 93 / 0 0 0 50
Loma Linda 64 88 66 87 / 0 0 0 30
Fabens 66 94 70 92 / 0 0 0 30
Santa Teresa 67 92 68 90 / 0 0 0 10
White Sands HQ 64 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 10
Jornada Range 62 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 61 91 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 61 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 66 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 20
Mayhill 52 79 54 77 / 0 0 0 50
Mescalero 52 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 40
Timberon 50 77 52 76 / 0 0 0 50
Winston 45 81 48 78 / 0 0 0 10
Hillsboro 54 87 57 84 / 0 0 0 10
Spaceport 62 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 46 79 47 76 / 0 0 0 10
Hurley 52 84 53 80 / 0 0 0 10
Cliff 48 86 50 82 / 0 0 0 10
Mule Creek 55 84 54 77 / 0 0 0 10
Faywood 54 85 55 82 / 0 0 0 10
Animas 58 90 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 57 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 58 91 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 60 85 56 81 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 20-Novlan
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