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FXUS64 KEPZ 152230
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
330 PM MST Fri Feb 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds will continue for the remainder of the afternoon
across the area. Winds will return a little stronger on Saturday,
with gusts of 45 to 50 mph possible late in the afternoon. Overall
the week ahead will bring unsettled weather with breezy conditions
persisting on Sunday, and a chance of precipitation Monday night
into Tuesday, mainly over the higher terrain. Temperatures will
generally be cooler starting on Saturday, with highs running 5 to
10 degrees below normal through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A persistent longwave trough will keep the weather unsettled for
at least the next week, along with general cooling trend.

Breezy conditions this afternoon will continue into the evening
hours, but lighter winds are expected in sheltered valleys in the
Gila Region. Models and upstream obs suggest no low level dry air
advection tonight, and considering this morning rainfall, some fog
may develop late tonight in sheltered areas of the Gila.
Elsewhere, precip was light, and winds will remain strong enough
to prevent fog formation, except maybe in the highest elevations
of the Sacramento Mountains where orographic uplift and residual
moisture may result in some patchy fog as well.

A shortwave trough, not terribly strong, will move across northern
Arizona and Northern New Mexico tomorrow afternoon, while a strong
jet streak (180-190 knots at 250 mb) drifts south along the base
of the longwave trough. Deep mixing up to around 700 mb will tap
into winds of about 50 knots aloft, suggesting gust potential in
the 45 to 50 mph range tomorrow afternoon. The stronger winds
aloft look to be focused over south-central New Mexico and Far
West Texas, and a little lighter over far SW New Mexico. Although
it's right on the edge of criteria, a Wind Advisory has been
posted for tomorrow afternoon, except for far SW New Mexico.

Breezy conditions will continue Sunday, though winds will be a
little lighter than Saturday. A series of weaker upper level
shortwave troughs embedded in the larger longwave trough will keep
minor precip chances in place for the Gila, while drier southwest
winds will continue elsewhere on Monday. A stronger shortwave
trough dropping down the California coast on Monday will cause the
mean trough to dig south/amplify, then swing through our area on
Tuesday. Precip chances will increase in the Gila and to a lesser
extent, the Sacramento Mountains and Bootheel Regions as a result.

Yet another shortwave will drop down the California coast on
Tuesday, carving out the longwave trough even further. Wednesday
and Thursday look to be quieter across the area, but a stronger
trough looks to drop into southern California and Arizona Thursday
night or Friday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are on board with this,
but there are some timing differences, with the trough lifting
through New Mexico either Friday or Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/00Z-17/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT120-150 SCT-BKN200-250 through 09Z then becoming
FEW-SCT040-060 SCT-BKN200-250 from west to east. West winds will
start out 15-25G35KTS but decrease by 03Z at all terminals to 5-
15KTS. Winds will begin to quickly increase again after 15Z out of
the west at 20-30G40KTS with some patchy 1-3SM BLDU.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy to windy conditions will be the norm just about every day
into the middle of next week. The windiest day looks to be tomorrow
with sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph and gusts to 45 mph. Relative
humidities should remain above 15 percent, but some localized areas
may see an hour or two of critical conditions in the late afternoon.
After tomorrow, temperatures will see a significant drop into early
next week with highs falling to 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Temperatures may rebound toward the middle or later part of the
week, but still remain below normal. The cooler temperatures will
help to keep relative humidities above 20 percent so even with the
breezy conditions, critical conditions should not be met. Vent
rates will generally remain good to excellent into next week with
deep westerly flow continuing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 49 65 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 45 65 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 42 60 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 41 62 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 31 41 19 36 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 39 57 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 35 46 25 44 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 38 59 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 34 54 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 47 65 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 41 68 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 46 73 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 41 60 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 45 69 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 43 63 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 50 61 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 39 59 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 40 60 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 42 63 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 41 62 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 38 53 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 34 50 20 45 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 32 49 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 30 50 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 37 55 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 37 58 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 27 46 16 44 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 33 50 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 30 51 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 34 46 26 45 / 0 0 0 10
Faywood 36 51 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 38 58 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 36 59 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 40 62 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 40 56 30 51 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 26-Grzywacz
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