FXUS64 KEPZ 042022
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
122 PM MST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOL DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A FEW LOWLAND RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT ON LARGER SCALE TRENDS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SPLIT FLOW/REX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LOW SHOWING
LITTLE MOVEMENT AS IT SPINS OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL CONCURRENTLY MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INDUCING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WITH INFLOW OF
COOL DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS. THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT WARMER MORE MOIST AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND THIS WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY BELOW 500 MB
FOR ANY PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
EARLY NEXT EEK AND CONSEQUENTLY MOVE IT SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
BAJA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ADVANCING CENTER INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO. AS SYSTEM CROSSES BAJA IT WILL GENERATE DEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE CWA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED ADVECTION OF MOISTURE. THUS PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE TO .6 INCH. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS WITH ATTENDANT LIFT PRODUCING A FEW LOWLAND RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO
INFLUENCE REGION WEATHER. INSTEAD HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW050-070
BKN150-200 THRU MUCH OF PD. EAST WINDS OF 15G25KT WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS AROUND 03Z EXCEPT ON WESTERN SLOPES WHERE 09015-20G35KT
POSSIBLE THRU MUCH OF NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFT
16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
PUSHING INTO MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. GUSTY
EAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 32 50 33 56 36 / 0 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 27 44 28 53 33 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 29 50 31 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 28 49 29 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 18 31 19 34 20 / 0 10 10 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 27 50 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 28 40 29 43 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 28 51 28 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 27 53 28 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ


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