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FXUS64 KEPZ 202139
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
339 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will continue to stream over the Borderland from the
south as an upper high moves over the lower Mississippi Valley
Friday and Saturday. With the moist airmass, heavy rain and
flooding will be a threat. As this upper high continues to drift
east, a new high center will form over the Great Basin. This will
turn our upper flow out of the north on Sunday into the first part
of next week. Abundant moisture will remain in place through about
Tuesday, with heavy rain and flood potential continuing. The upper
flow begins to draw in a bit drier air for Wednesday and Thursday,
with thunderstorms becoming more isolated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monsoon pattern continues today as upper high slowly drifts east,
to near Arkansas/Missouri area this afternoon. Southerly flow
aloft will increase, along with moisture transport, over the area
tonight and Friday. PWs currently ranging from 1.5 inches NM
Bootheel to 1.2 inches over the Sacs. First thunderstorms today
formed over mountains as usual, and now are starting to form over
lowlands of the Bootheel and Otero County. Expect the CWA to
increase in thunderstorm coverage tonight, perhaps with best
evening action west of the Rio Grande Valley, shifting to the east
toward midnight. Several HRRR runs have been showing this pattern.
This large scale pattern will continue again Friday with heavy
rain/flood threat continuing.

Saturday through Tuesday...upper pattern continues to change, as
original high weakens and consolidates further east with Bermuda
high. A new high center will begin forming over the Great Basin
and turn our upper flow to the north. This does not initially
flush out much moisture at all, as recycled moisture aloft will
keep moist conditions over the area. Look for scattered/numerous
thunderstorms through this entire period. PWs continue around 1.4
to 1.6 inches, so heavy rain/flood threat expected to continue.

Wednesday and Thursday...both GFS/ECMWF showing recycled moisture
decreasing and getting pushed west in the NE-E flow aloft, with
deepest moisture from about Deming west. Will keep higher POPs in
this area with lower POPs to the east. GFS shows PWs falling to
1.2 inches east and north, to 1.4 inches southwest. Perhaps some
easing of flood potential.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...
With monsoon flow established expect P6SM SCT-BKN050-070 BKN-OVC150-
200 through much of the period. However, periods of scattered
VRB25G40KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-050 will occur thru 06Z. Periods of
VCSH overnight with VCTS returning most terminals after 18z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Deep monsoonal flow will prevail over the region for most of the
week to come. This will result in increased chances for wetting
precip, especially Friday through Sunday. The threat of flash
flooding will increase as we head into the weekend as parts of the
region become saturated by repeat storms. In addition, frequent
lightning strikes along with gusty and erratic winds associated with
storms will be a concern for fire weather interests. Temps will tend
to run a bit below normal through the period resulting in elevated
Min RH values. Meanwhile vent categories will likely remain in the
fair to occasionally good categories into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 72 92 71 93 / 20 20 30 20
Sierra Blanca 68 90 67 90 / 20 20 30 20
Las Cruces 67 91 66 92 / 20 20 30 20
Alamogordo 68 93 67 93 / 20 20 30 20
Cloudcroft 51 70 50 69 / 20 40 40 50
Truth or Consequences 68 95 67 93 / 30 20 40 40
Silver City 58 87 60 87 / 50 50 40 60
Deming 66 91 66 91 / 30 30 30 40
Lordsburg 65 90 65 91 / 40 40 40 40
West El Paso Metro 71 90 71 92 / 20 20 30 20
Dell City 70 95 69 95 / 20 20 30 20
Fort Hancock 74 92 71 94 / 20 20 30 20
Loma Linda 63 84 66 89 / 20 20 30 20
Fabens 71 91 70 93 / 20 20 30 20
Santa Teresa 68 91 69 92 / 20 20 30 20
White Sands HQ 69 92 68 91 / 20 20 30 20
Jornada Range 67 95 66 92 / 20 20 30 20
Hatch 66 93 66 94 / 30 20 30 30
Columbus 67 91 67 92 / 30 20 30 40
Orogrande 67 92 69 93 / 20 20 30 20
Mayhill 54 81 54 78 / 20 40 30 50
Mescalero 55 81 54 81 / 20 40 30 50
Timberon 53 79 54 79 / 20 20 40 50
Winston 55 86 58 87 / 40 50 50 70
Hillsboro 62 91 62 92 / 40 40 40 60
Spaceport 66 95 66 93 / 20 20 30 20
Lake Roberts 51 85 53 86 / 50 70 50 70
Hurley 59 87 61 88 / 40 40 30 60
Cliff 59 88 59 90 / 50 60 40 50
Mule Creek 58 88 58 88 / 50 60 50 60
Faywood 60 88 61 89 / 40 30 30 60
Animas 65 90 65 92 / 40 50 40 50
Hachita 64 90 65 90 / 40 40 40 60
Antelope Wells 63 86 64 88 / 40 60 50 70
Cloverdale 60 82 61 87 / 50 60 50 70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Laney
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