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FXUS64 KEPZ 251006
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
406 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue today with many lowland
locations climbing into the lower-80s. A relatively weak upper
level storm system and Pacific cold front will move through the
area overnight, dropping temperatures closer to normal for Sunday.
Continued active pattern will bring breezy afternoons for the next
several days. A stronger system will bring the risk of light
mountain precip Tuesday and Wednesday, with windy conditions in
the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper-level ridge axis shifting east of the area will help keep
warm and dry conditions in place today while a trough currently
moving into California moves into AZ/UT by this afternoon. Weak
lee troughing will create slightly breezy SW winds by the
afternoon, with a few gusts above 25 knots in far SW New Mexico.
The trough will pass through most of NM Saturday night, with the
strongest vort max remaining over the northern part of the state.
This will keep the impacts at a minimum, other than a 4-8 degree
temperature drop behind the system for Sunday.

This trough will help deepen a lee surface low over the Texas
Panhandle, increasing the pressure gradient across out area, and
bringing breezy west winds back to the area Sunday afternoon,
with a few gusts in the 35-45 mph range.

A low-amplitude ridge will keep things warm and dry Monday, but
the next in a series of upper troughs will again bring breezy
conditions to SW NM by Monday afternoon, and over a wider area
Tuesday morning. A few rain and snow showers will be possible over
the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains Tuesday morning, mainly
above 7,000 feet and with little to no accumulation.

Next system looks to affect the area in the Fri-Sat timeframe, but
confidence remains low for any particular solution given ensemble
spread in timing and path of the trough or upper low.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail today with just some increasing high
cirrus from the west during the afternoon. Light and variable
winds this morning will become S to SW by afternoon, with a few
gusts above 25 knots possible during peak mixing. The stronger
winds will be favored in SW New Mexico. It will likely remain
somewhat breezy (gusts 25-30 knots) east of area mountain ranges
overnight, including ELP as an upper level trough and weak Pacific
cold front move through the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active pattern will continue this week, with breezy conditions
each afternoon resulting in near-critical conditions for brief
periods. Weak cold front moving in from the west overnight tonight
will bring temperatures down to just a couple degrees above normal
for Sunday, and this will boost RH values over the higher terrain.
Parts of West Texas could see Red Flag conditions Sunday
afternoon. A stronger upper level storm system looks to affect the
area Tuesday into Wednesday, with windy conditions in the
lowlands, and light mountain precip for the Gila and Sacramentos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 82 54 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 79 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 78 45 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 75 49 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 54 30 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 76 47 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 69 38 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 78 43 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 77 39 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 81 54 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 80 45 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 85 51 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 74 50 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 84 51 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 80 49 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 77 52 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 76 42 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 78 45 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 82 48 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 78 50 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 67 38 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 65 36 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 63 35 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 70 32 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 73 41 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 74 44 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 68 27 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 71 36 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 75 32 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 70 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 72 41 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 79 41 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 79 40 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 80 43 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 72 40 70 42 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman
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