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FXUS64 KEPZ 082303
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
503 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...Updated for Aviation...

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
P6SM SKC-SCT120-150 through period. Any isolated storms
near Mexico border will die off by 02Z. Winds generally north to
west AOB 12KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...137 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of very hot and dry weather will occur over the
next several days. An unusually strong high pressure system aloft
will keep skies mainly clear while resulting in temperatures close
to ten degrees above average the rest of the week and into the
weekend. Early next week some moisture will return to portions of
the Borderland helping produce at least a few scattered storms and
lowering temperatures by a few degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...
Satellite currently shows a 5940 m high pressure spinning over the
AZ/NM/MX border. This abnormally heavy air mass will compressionally
heat the area and rise temperatures. Heat advisory levels will be
reached in urban areas and the Rio Grande valley south of El Paso
today. Temperatures will start to cool off a couple hours after
sunset, but low temperatures will stay above normal in urban areas.

There is a slight chance for isolated mountain storms through the
evening hours, which could create gust conditions in the lowlands as
outflow boundaries chaotically clash and collide. However the
recycled moisture from yesterday is minimal, and will result in less
coverage than we have been seeing these past 2 days.

Temperatures soar tomorrow as the high pressure remains on top of
the area. A heat advisory will be issued for Thursday through the
weekend due to the abnormally hot temperatures. Heat is a silent
killer. Temperatures tomorrow will reach into levels that will
affect younger, older, and dehydrated people if they remain outside
for a period of time in direct sunlight. Always check the back seat
for your furry friend.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...
An unusually strong upper level ridge will continue to strengthen
directly over New Mexico late this week and into the weekend.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF project 500 heights to reach as high as
600 dekameters. The associated subsidence under this ridge will
not only help push temperature readings to near record levels,
but it should also serve to suppress convection for the next
several days. There will likely be some residual moisture
remaining under the ridge that could allow for some small cumulus
development over the higher terrain, but the chance for any actual
precipitation will be almost nil until early next week.

Temperatures will range from 104 to 107 across the lowlands
through the weekend with all but the highest mountain elevations
achieving at least 90 degrees each afternoon. A few records will
be possible during this stretch of very hot days. As a result
daily heat advisories are expected across a large portion of the
CWA.

Meanwhile it appears as if the upper ridge will drift a bit to the
east by early next week. This will allow for a return flow of some
moisture by late Monday and Tuesday across our western and
northern zones. Models finally show PW anomalies trending back to
positive in these areas by Monday afternoon and evening. As a
result, temperatures should moderate a bit early next week (but
still stay above average) while additional convection could
develop during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot conditions expected the next 5 days with temperatures around
10 to 15 degrees above normal most of the period. There will be
isolated thunderstorms today for mainly for areas east of the Rio
Grande with any storm capable of producing dry lightning and wind
gusts greater than 50 mph. Otherwise expect mostly dry weather
through the weekend with lowest humidity around 10 percent lowlands
and 15 percent mountains. Wind speeds will be around 5 to 15 mph
each day. Ventillation will be mostly good to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 78 106 80 106 / 0 20 0 0
Sierra Blanca 71 99 72 100 / 20 50 0 0
Las Cruces 72 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 74 104 76 105 / 0 20 0 0
Cloudcroft 58 81 59 81 / 0 40 0 0
Truth or Consequences 75 102 75 104 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 68 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 69 105 70 105 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 69 101 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 78 105 80 106 / 0 10 0 0
Dell City 72 106 74 106 / 0 30 0 0
Fort Hancock 76 107 77 107 / 10 30 0 0
Loma Linda 74 99 77 99 / 0 30 0 0
Fabens 78 106 80 106 / 0 20 0 0
Santa Teresa 73 104 75 104 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 79 104 80 104 / 0 10 0 0
Jornada Range 71 103 75 104 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 71 104 73 106 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 74 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 74 104 76 104 / 0 20 0 0
Mayhill 63 91 64 92 / 0 40 0 0
Mescalero 61 91 62 93 / 0 30 0 0
Timberon 59 89 61 90 / 0 40 0 0
Winston 61 94 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 69 102 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 70 102 72 103 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 59 96 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 65 100 67 101 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 58 102 61 104 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 67 97 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 69 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 69 102 69 104 / 0 20 0 0
Hachita 66 105 68 104 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 69 100 69 102 / 10 20 0 0
Cloverdale 66 95 67 97 / 20 30 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

&&

$$

31/27/26
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