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FXUS64 KEPZ 191100
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
500 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
After a couple of mostly dry and storm-free days across the
region, gulf moisture makes a brief return from the east today.
This will bring back chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms to the Borderland for this afternoon and evening. Drier air
returns for Friday and Saturday to limit storm activity. Sunday
through the middle of next week looks to bring unsettled and wet
weather to the region as a deep storm system lingers over the
region. More warm weather finishes out the week before cooler
conditions move in late weekend and next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A deep westerly flow pattern dried the region over the last couple
of days, but a strong easterly push overnight has temporarily y
reversed that trend with an influx of gulf moisture from the SE
for today. PWATs dropped to 0.75" over EPZ with dewpoints down
into the 40s. However prog soundings show PWATs steadily creeping
upward all day long with afternoon numbers as high as 1.25" and
dewpoints back in the 50s and maybe 60s. This returns our airmass
to a moist and unstable one. We are under a deep SW flow pattern
aloft with a deep trough to our west and a minor 50kt jet aloft.
Dynamics are weak, but a weak passing disturbance aloft,
orographic lift, and surface heating should both work to produce
isolated to scattered showers and storms by afternoon, to continue
well into the evening tonight. Temperatures have been warmer than
model numbers, and will likely continue the same today, despite
dropping a few degrees due to the added moisture and clouds.

For Friday and Saturday the upper trough slides east toward the
Northern Rockies. This will turn our mid and upper-level winds
more westerly and scour moisture out of our W and central zones.
Moisture will however linger over our southern and eastern zones.
Thus we will eliminate W and N area POPs and keep them over far E
zones for these days. Temperatures should stay very near seasonal
normals.

Sunday looks to begin a period of interesting, and mostly
unsettled, weather. It starts with both the GFS and the EC models
drawing moisture back into the forecast area from the south as a
west coast upper trough amplifies south into the SW to back winds
aloft. The GFS models steers (current) Hurricane Lorena right over
our region Sunday night as a much weaker open low pressure
system. That feature helps to moisten our area and results in the
models producing widespread moderate rainfall across the region.
The EC keeps Lorena away, so it is a much drier solution, but none
the less it does also moisten the region.

Yesterday the models were in significant disagreement from early
week and beyond. NOW, all the way through the week, the two
models are in impressive agreement with the track and placement of
the slow moving upper low as it drops over AZ Wednesday and then
slowly lifts away Friday. This extended duration under the
influence of this feature will keep our region under a moist
southerly flow pattern with dynamics aloft. If we don't dry-slot,
we should see several days with cool, cloudy, and wet weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/12Z-20/12Z...
VFR conditions for all terminals through 18Z. With moisture moving
back in for today, clouds should be on the increase this
afternoon. P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN150-200 through 18Z then
becoming P6SM SCT080-100 SCT-BKN120-150. AFT 18Z isolated to
scattered 3-5SM -TSRA BKN050-070, increasing through the afternoon
into the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After a couple of mostly dry and storm-free days across the
region, gulf moisture makes a brief return from the east today.
This will lift dewpoints and RH today with increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the area. Best chances will be
this afternoon and evening across the area mountains as well as
surrounding lowlands and desert areas across far west Texas and
south central New Mexico. A passing trough on Friday will turn
winds more westerly to dry out the region Friday and Saturday,
with a sharp decrease in storm chances. Sunday, and through at
least mid-week next week, we see a lot of moisture back over the
region with a strong storm system parked to our west. This should
bring a period of wetter and cooler conditions to the region
beginning late Sunday and extending through Wednesday. Temperatures
will continue slightly above normal to end the week, but fall a
little below normal early next week. Relative humidities will
remain at or above 20 percent with very good recoveries. Winds
will remain on the light side for most of the period, but could
become breezy depending on the timing and placement of system
moving into region. Vent rates will be improving next couple of
days with good to very good rates expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 91 68 91 69 / 20 20 0 0
Sierra Blanca 88 63 87 64 / 40 30 20 10
Las Cruces 88 62 87 62 / 20 20 0 0
Alamogordo 91 64 90 64 / 30 30 0 0
Cloudcroft 69 48 68 48 / 50 50 20 0
Truth or Consequences 88 61 87 61 / 20 20 0 0
Silver City 82 56 79 56 / 30 20 0 0
Deming 87 61 87 60 / 30 0 0 0
Lordsburg 89 60 85 59 / 20 10 0 0
West El Paso Metro 92 69 91 69 / 20 20 0 0
Dell City 94 65 93 66 / 30 40 10 10
Fort Hancock 95 70 95 70 / 30 30 10 10
Loma Linda 86 65 86 65 / 40 30 10 10
Fabens 92 68 92 69 / 20 20 0 0
Santa Teresa 89 65 89 65 / 20 20 0 0
White Sands HQ 90 67 89 67 / 20 20 0 0
Jornada Range 89 62 88 62 / 20 20 0 0
Hatch 89 61 89 61 / 20 20 0 0
Columbus 88 63 87 63 / 20 10 0 0
Orogrande 90 64 90 65 / 30 20 0 0
Mayhill 79 53 78 53 / 50 40 20 0
Mescalero 79 51 77 51 / 50 40 10 0
Timberon 76 50 76 51 / 50 40 20 0
Winston 83 48 80 47 / 40 30 0 0
Hillsboro 86 58 85 57 / 30 20 0 0
Spaceport 88 59 87 59 / 20 20 0 0
Lake Roberts 83 50 79 49 / 40 30 0 0
Hurley 85 55 82 55 / 30 20 0 0
Cliff 91 53 87 52 / 30 20 0 0
Mule Creek 85 56 80 54 / 30 10 0 0
Faywood 85 57 82 57 / 30 20 0 0
Animas 91 60 87 59 / 20 0 0 0
Hachita 88 59 85 59 / 20 10 0 0
Antelope Wells 88 60 86 59 / 20 10 0 0
Cloverdale 86 58 81 59 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird
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