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FXUS64 KEPZ 191042
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
442 AM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest Deserts the
Borderland's weather will get warmer and drier through the week.
Lowland temperatures will top out at or above 100 degrees for most
of the region through the work week. Skies will be generally
clear with very few clouds. A bit of moisture will try to move in
from the east late in the week, but still it appears that most of
the region will stay dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Man that was a short monsoon! Actually, it wasn't the monsoon at
all, it was an anomaly. It was a temporary setup that resembled a
summer flow pattern, and happened to sync up with deep moisture
from a decaying tropical system. Now we go back to our typical
mid-June conditions...which are HOT and DRY.

High pressure aloft is building to our SW. This also is not a real
frequent pattern this time of year, but it will result in real
frequent late spring conditions. The flow aloft will come from the
west and northwest. These keep dry air streaming into and across
the region, and hold the gulf moisture to our east. Thus we see
few if any clouds, as rain chances remain close to nil. In
addition temperatures under the high will continue to climb with
daily desert highs topping out in triple-digit territory.

High pressure usually means relaxed pressure gradients, and it
appears that will be the case this week with the current and
evolving pattern. This means winds on the lighter side. However
with deep mixing, there will be some mild to moderate afternoon
gusts.

The conditions described above look to hold tightly onto the
region through the work week, and into the weekend. Moisture does
look to move west across central Mexico through the week as a
minor easterly wave (inverted trough) tracks west on the south
side of the upper high. By SAT/SUN the upper high looks to weaken
our over area. This may allow some moisture to move in from both
the east and the south for a slight risk of showers and
thunderstorms by SUN/MON. That setup currently looks iffy, so
there is no confidence that this will materialize. Right now the
bet is to keep the area hot and dry well into the last week of
June.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/12Z-20/12Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW100-120 through period. Winds VRB and 5-10 kts thru
18Z...then shifting W 5-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No precipitation expected over the remainder of the week as high
pressure aloft will remain over the desert southwest and northwest
flow aloft dominates. The low-level drying trend will continue
over the next couple of days with relative humidities falling back
into the single digits by Wednesday with high temperatures on the
lowlands approaching or surpassing 100 degrees. A slight increase
possible in humidities for the end of the week but will remain
under 15 percent. Winds will remain about 5 to 15 mph for Tuesday
but be on the increase to 10 to 20 mph Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 101 74 103 74 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 96 69 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 100 66 101 68 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 98 67 99 68 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 77 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 99 67 99 69 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 94 60 94 63 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 101 64 102 66 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 99 63 99 65 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 100 73 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 99 70 102 70 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 101 73 104 73 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 95 69 97 70 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 101 71 102 71 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 100 70 101 70 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 99 70 101 71 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 100 65 101 66 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 102 64 102 66 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 102 67 102 68 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 99 70 100 71 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 84 59 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 85 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 84 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 92 57 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 97 62 98 63 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 99 64 98 66 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 91 52 94 55 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 95 59 96 62 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 97 54 98 58 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 95 59 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 96 62 98 65 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 100 64 100 64 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 100 63 100 65 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 99 63 99 65 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 94 62 94 63 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird
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