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FXUS64 KEPZ 242146
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
346 PM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern will continue for our area, as a series
of backdoor cold fronts bring cooler weather and breezy to locally
windy east winds to the borderland through the end of the week.
Storm chances also return starting early evening through this
weekend, with additional moisture introduced into the area by the
frontal passages. Gusty southwest winds will follow and redevelop
across the area early next week, as a large upper level low
pressure system approaches from the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest WV imagery depicts flattening UL ridge over the southwest
states, with trough aloft tracking SSE over CO and UT. This allows
bands of Ci to progress across the region. At the surface a back
door cold front is evident across the eastern NM plains, with
boundary now organizing Cu development along lower eastern slopes
of the Sacs. Light southwest winds are noted across the borderland.
Dewpoints remain fairly low across our CWFA, with current readings
ranging from the low teens in the Gila region, to middle 20s
across far southern Hudspeth county.

The trough over CO and UT will continue to press southeast over
the western high plains, while WAA ahead of an E Pac upper cut
off low helps to rebuild the ridge over the SW and western states.
Nearby psg of above trough will drive a strong back door cold
front over our area tonight, with highs 15-20 deg cooler Wednesday
over Hudspeth and eastern Otero counties. Roughly 5 degrees of
cooling are expected further west near AZ border. Another trough
sends another frontal boundary across later Thu/Thu night, for a
similar degree of cooling on Friday.

Approach of a much stronger full latitude trough from the Pacific
will drive the ridge east of our area later in the weekend and
return dry S-SW flow to the region through early next week.
Near normal highs are expected Thursday and Saturday, with above
normal readings expected later in the weekend and early next week.

WIND IMPACTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY EVENING:
Strong crosswinds for travelers on the I-10/25 corridor due to
gusty east winds for west El Paso and along west facing slopes of
other Mtn. ranges in the area. Downslope enhancement of east winds
asscd with passage of each feature, will lead to at least 15-25
mph locally sustained wind speeds with gusts to at least 30 mph
both nights.

THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY:
Dry lightning, downburst wind gusts and locally dense blowing dust
are the main impacts with any convection that develops.
Introduction of additional moisture into our area by advection
from each frontal feature, will fuel isolated to scattered
airmass-type storms each afternoon/early evening in our area.
First front will have less of an impact, however as mentioned
above, passage will help seed the lower atmosphere for the second
front Thu night. As ridge has rebuilt over the region by that
time, growth will be limited Thursday. FROPA Thu night should
focus convection south and west on Friday, with approach of our
larger Pacific feature to drive convection back over all areas
Saturday. A few cells may reach severe limits in the afternoon,
given increasing shear and moisture inputs from 2 fronts by that
time.

POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST WIND IMPACTS EARLY NEXT WEEK:
Combination of mix down of strengthening winds aloft ahead of the
UL trof expected early next week, and the attendant development of
lee sfc trough, would contribute to gusty southwest winds across
the region at that time. Blowing dust and strong crosswinds would
be the main impacts in this situation.






&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/00Z-26/00Z... P6SM FEW-SCT150-200 SCT-BKN250
through period. Winds will start out west to southwest AOB 12KTS to
start period but by 12Z, back door cold front will have moved west
to about KDMN-KSVC with N to NE winds behind it at 10-20G30KTS with
strongest winds on western slopes and around KTCS. As day progresses,
winds will become more S to SE and decrease to 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A fairly quiet weather period will continue through the week with a
back door cold front moving through area tonight with some gusty
northeast to east winds by morning. Expect temperatures to fall
about 5 degrees out west to 15 degrees east with higher humidities,
especially over the east. Temps will rebound Thursday as upper ridge
moves over the Rockies with humidities falling, but should remain
above 10 percent. Another front will move in Thursday night and
bring a return to strong east winds through Friday morning. This
front will bring additional moisture and a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the area Friday and Saturday. Warmer temps
return early next week along with possible near critical fire
weather conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 55 78 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 53 67 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 55 79 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 52 73 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 35 57 37 63 / 0 0 0 10
Truth or Consequences 53 79 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 49 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 53 81 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 52 83 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 57 76 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 46 68 44 86 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 57 75 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 46 69 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 53 76 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 55 77 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 57 76 55 84 / 0 0 0 10
Jornada Range 50 79 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 53 83 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 57 82 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 54 74 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 36 61 38 72 / 20 20 0 20
Mescalero 37 64 40 71 / 10 0 0 10
Timberon 35 59 37 69 / 0 0 0 10
Winston 39 75 41 78 / 0 0 0 10
Hillsboro 47 79 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 51 79 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 36 78 39 78 / 0 0 0 10
Hurley 45 78 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 40 83 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 40 83 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 46 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 53 86 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 53 84 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 55 85 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 53 84 53 83 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

22/26
Grzywacz/Tripoli
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