FXUS64 KEPZ 060907
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
307 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND A
LITTLE WARMER YET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY
CREEP IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ON THE
WEEKEND A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL. A SURFACE HIGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SWING
SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY WHICH DRAWS A WEAK
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE AREA FROM CENTRAL BAJA CA. A LITTLE MOISTURE
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE SO WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE WHETHER
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE ADDED FOR LATE WEEK.

LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON POSITION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS WHICH DROPS SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD COOL MOST OF AREA OFF BY AT LEAST
12 TO 15 DEGREES ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CAUSING GUSTY EAST WINDS
(ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES). SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM
DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE TO WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NOW IF THE ECMWF HAS ITS WAY...
IT WOULD BE NOT AS COOL BUT WETTER. AT THIS TIME WILL IGNORE THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 06/1200Z-07/1200Z
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN. A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 77 53 79 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 74 46 75 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 77 51 79 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 48 78 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 30 56 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 77 49 78 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 71 39 71 40 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 77 49 78 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 78 46 79 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01/01 FAUSETT


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