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FXUS64 KEPZ 231050
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
350 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and mostly above normal temperatures over the next
week across the Borderland. Upper high over the Baja Peninsula
will slowly drift east over the next several days, to be over
northern Mexico and southern New Mexico by Sunday. This will allow
plenty of sunshine and relatively dry air, so that high
temperatures will be well above normal each day. By the weekend,
high temperatures will be near record. A cool down develops
Tuesday and Wednesday as a Pacific system moves in, with highs
back to near normal or slightly below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper high just off the coast of the Baja will continue to
dominate our weather pattern for this Thanksgiving into the
beginning of next week as it sprawls across much of the Desert
Southwest. Plenty of high level moisture continues to stream
around the northern margins of the high, occasionally bringing
patches of cirrus over our area. With the dry airmass in place,
temperatures will rebound quickly after yesterday's back door cool
front. Highs today will warm back to well above normal.

Friday through Monday...the upper high very slowly drifts east,
to be over northern Mexico Sunday. Temperatures will approach
record levels, though a weak short wave spilling over the top of
the high will flip winds on Saturday back out of the east with a
weak back door cool front moving in. This likely will only shave a
few degrees off highs, to quickly rebound Sunday and Monday back
to near record levels.

Tuesday through Thursday...Pacific trough finally pushes in,
displacing upper high back well south of the area. GFS brings the
trough and surface front through Tuesday morning, to be reinforced
by a side door front in the afternoon as surface high pressure
builds southward from the Great Basin. System looks rather dry so
no precip expected. Temperatures will crash however. MOS
temperatures look high for Tuesday, though the forecast
temperature could be the infamous 1201am high. Afternoon highs
should be much lower than the MOS highs. Trough through the CWA by
early Tuesday evening. Temperatures will continue to be rather
cool, with lowland highs possibly remaining in the 50s Wednesday
before rebounding some Thursday as high pressure builds in behind
the exiting trough. ECMWF still a bit slower and deeper with the
feature, but precip still remaining north of the area. Trough not
exiting area til late Tuesday night. Will lean toward GFS at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/12Z-24/12Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. Winds light this morning, then
east to southeast 7-10 kts this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry, warm weather to continue through Monday as upper high over
the Desert Southwest dominates the scene. High temperatures will
rebound back to well above normal today, and to near record levels
Friday through Monday. Min RHs 15-25% through Saturday, then
decreasing a bit Sunday and Monday. Pacific frontal system moves
in Tuesday for a cool down back to near normal or slightly below
mid week. Still dry though!

Vent rates will be poor to fair most days through Sunday with
light winds and low mixing heights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 73 45 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 74 43 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 72 41 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 70 42 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 58 32 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 71 40 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 69 38 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 73 38 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 74 40 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 73 45 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 76 41 81 42 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 75 44 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 71 43 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 75 43 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 72 42 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 73 44 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 72 34 75 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 73 36 77 38 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 72 40 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 70 44 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 65 36 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 64 35 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 63 34 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 70 31 78 37 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 70 39 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 72 32 75 34 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 70 31 73 35 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 69 38 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 74 30 75 31 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 73 30 74 30 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 70 37 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 74 38 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 72 38 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 70 39 79 42 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 71 39 77 44 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner
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