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FXUS64 KEPZ 141135
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
535 AM MDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see one more day with thunderstorm activity mainly
confined to the mountains and west of Deming. On Wednesday we will
see a slight chance for rain across the whole area. Our rain
chances will go up for the end of the week into Saturday, but then
another drying trend will begin on Sunday into Monday. High
temperatures today and tomorrow will be above average, but we will
see near average high temperatures for the end of the week into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
When we talk about roller coaster weather, we are usually
referring to our daily high temperatures, but for today's
discussion I will be talking about roller coaster weather as it
relates to our thunderstorm chances. For today we will see one
more down day on our rain chances, as upper level high pressure
just to our west will continue to keep a lid on our convection,
except in area mountains and west of Deming. The upper ridge will
then drift to our east on Wednesday and Thursday and the
circulation around the ridge will allow moisture to flow into the
region from the south. So our rain chances will be heading up for
those days. But by Friday the upper ridge will migrate back to our
west. Initially it has little impact on our rain chances for
Friday and Saturday, but by Sunday the upper level ridge will
bring much drier air into New Mexico from the north. This will
help lower our rain chances again for Sunday and Monday. Both the
extended GFS and ECMWF indicate that a weak back door cold front
will help sweep some moisture back into the area on Tuesday so
that our rain chances head back up for the middle part of next
week.

Looking at our temperatures, with the ridge sitting just to our
west, we will see our afternoon high temperatures 4 to 7 degrees
above average for today and Wednesday. As the moisture returns toward
the end of the week, we will see our highs slip a few degrees
back to seasonal averages for Thursday through Saturday. Then for
Sunday and Monday, as we dry out a little bit, we will see our
high temperatures creep a little higher, before dropping back to
near average for the middle of next week. So I guess you could say
that our high temperatures will also be on a bit of a roller
coaster ride.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 14/12Z-15/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Much like yesterday
we will keep most of the clouds and thunderstorm chances confined
to area mountains and west of KDMN. We will have unlimited
ceilings this morning, then during the afternoon we may see some
FEW070 in the lowlands and some isolated BKN060 in area mountains.
Surface winds will be from the south to southwest at 5 to 10
knots. Storm motion will be to the southwest or west this
afternoon and evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
One more quiet day, thunderstorm-wise, before our rain chances
start to increase again. Upper level high pressure will continue
to limit our thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening to
area mountains and a few locations west of the Continental Divide.
On Wednesday the upper level ridge will drift a little to our east
and that will allow moisture and rain chances to move back into
the area. Even more moisture and higher rain chances arrive for
the end of the weekend into Saturday, but then drier air and lower
rain chances return for Sunday and Monday. For the next week, surface
winds will stay below critical levels, except in and near
thunderstorms where gusty outflow winds could exist. Min RH's over
the next 7 days will be in the 20's and 30's in the lowlands and
in the 40's and 50's in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 97 73 95 74 / 0 0 0 20
Sierra Blanca 93 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 10
Las Cruces 95 68 93 69 / 0 0 0 30
Alamogordo 94 69 92 69 / 0 20 20 20
Cloudcroft 73 54 71 53 / 30 30 40 40
Truth or Consequences 94 69 93 69 / 20 20 20 30
Silver City 88 60 84 60 / 30 30 30 30
Deming 95 67 94 69 / 0 10 0 30
Lordsburg 93 67 91 67 / 30 30 20 40
West El Paso Metro 97 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 20
Dell City 96 69 95 70 / 0 0 10 10
Fort Hancock 97 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 10
Loma Linda 92 67 89 69 / 0 0 0 10
Fabens 97 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 20
Santa Teresa 96 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 20
White Sands HQ 96 69 94 70 / 0 0 0 20
Jornada Range 96 68 94 69 / 0 10 0 30
Hatch 96 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 30
Columbus 96 69 93 70 / 0 0 0 30
Orogrande 96 71 93 72 / 0 0 10 20
Mayhill 81 58 80 58 / 30 30 40 30
Mescalero 82 58 80 58 / 30 30 40 30
Timberon 80 58 79 58 / 30 30 40 30
Winston 87 58 84 59 / 30 30 40 40
Hillsboro 92 64 90 64 / 30 30 30 30
Spaceport 95 68 93 68 / 0 20 10 30
Lake Roberts 87 57 82 56 / 30 30 40 40
Hurley 89 62 87 62 / 20 30 20 30
Cliff 92 62 89 62 / 30 30 40 40
Mule Creek 89 64 87 63 / 30 30 30 40
Faywood 90 64 88 65 / 30 30 20 30
Animas 94 67 90 67 / 30 30 20 30
Hachita 94 66 91 67 / 0 20 20 30
Antelope Wells 91 65 86 65 / 0 20 30 40
Cloverdale 87 63 83 63 / 30 30 50 40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice
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