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FXUS64 KEPZ 170919
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
319 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas while weak upper disturbances move into the region. This
weather pattern will produce mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms to portions of the region each day. Several
storms may produce heavy rains with possible flooding or strong
gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A large area of low pressure typical of summer and associated
with warm boundary layer temperatures will cover much of the
western United States. What is a bit unusual with this scenario is
a lee surface trough will persist from a surface low over eastern
Colorado southward into eastern New Mexico through the weekend.
This will induce low level west to southwest winds much of the
period with overall trajectories pushing moisture up from Baja
into the CWA. Surface dewpoints should therefore be above 50 F
most locations with precipitable water mostly around 1 to 1.3
inches through the weekend.

Meanwhile persistent ridge aloft will remain aligned on an east
to west axis across or near the CWA. Ridge will weaken with time
and shift eastward over the next several days. This may allow weak
embedded waves aloft to move westward through the CWA providing
upward motion. In addition a more southeast flow aloft may ensue
possibly proving deeper moisture inflow at mid levels. These
factors plus surface heating will initiate deep convection through
the period. Greatest storm coverage will be over the higher
mountains where upslope flow will provide enhanced lift. Storm
initiation may also ensue into the evening from outflow boundaries
produced from earlier activity. Given the abundant moisture
several storms may drop heavy rains with flash flooding being the
primary threat. However DCAPE's above 1000 J/kg indicate strong
downbursts also possible.

Models show weakening cold front entering the CWA from the north
Monday night and Tuesday which may further support heavy rain
threat.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 17/12z-18/12z.
Scattered areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility in showers
and thunderstorms mainly from 18z-06z. A few storms may produce
wind gusts to 45 kt. Otherwise VFR conditions with skies SCT-
BKN060-100. Surface winds mostly from 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas while weak upper disturbances move into the region. This
weather pattern will produce mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms to portions of the region each day. Several
storms may produce heavy rains with possible flooding or strong
gusty winds up to 50 mph. Temperatures generally from near normal
to 5 degrees above normal with surface winds mostly around 5 to 15
mph outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 100 75 98 74 / 20 30 20 30
Sierra Blanca 94 68 93 68 / 40 20 20 30
Las Cruces 97 70 96 70 / 20 30 20 30
Alamogordo 99 70 99 70 / 30 20 20 20
Cloudcroft 76 52 77 53 / 60 20 40 20
Truth or Consequences 98 73 98 72 / 30 20 20 20
Silver City 91 65 91 65 / 50 40 50 30
Deming 99 70 96 68 / 40 40 20 30
Lordsburg 97 68 95 68 / 30 50 30 30
West El Paso Metro 100 76 98 76 / 20 30 20 30
Dell City 100 68 99 71 / 30 20 20 30
Fort Hancock 101 75 98 74 / 40 30 20 30
Loma Linda 94 69 94 71 / 30 30 20 30
Fabens 100 75 98 74 / 20 30 20 30
Santa Teresa 99 73 97 71 / 20 30 20 30
White Sands HQ 98 74 98 75 / 20 30 20 30
Jornada Range 98 69 98 69 / 20 30 20 30
Hatch 98 71 98 69 / 20 30 20 30
Columbus 99 71 97 73 / 20 40 20 30
Orogrande 97 72 97 71 / 20 30 20 30
Mayhill 85 57 86 59 / 60 20 40 20
Mescalero 86 57 88 57 / 60 20 40 20
Timberon 83 54 83 54 / 60 20 40 20
Winston 91 61 92 58 / 50 30 30 30
Hillsboro 95 68 96 66 / 50 30 30 30
Spaceport 98 66 98 67 / 20 20 20 20
Lake Roberts 93 58 90 56 / 50 30 50 30
Hurley 93 66 92 64 / 40 30 50 30
Cliff 98 62 97 60 / 40 30 50 30
Mule Creek 96 64 94 61 / 30 40 40 30
Faywood 93 69 93 67 / 50 30 50 30
Animas 98 67 96 67 / 30 60 40 30
Hachita 98 67 95 66 / 30 50 30 30
Antelope Wells 96 67 92 67 / 60 60 40 40
Cloverdale 91 64 88 65 / 60 60 40 40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for TXZ418-419.

&&

$$

05 Rogash
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