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FXUS64 KEPZ 121106
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
406 AM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A pair of weather systems will bring unsettled and windy weather
to the region today tonight. The first system may produce a few
light rain showers or sprinkles for areas along the border today.
the next system will drop down from the northwest and generate
strong winds mostly over and along area mountains. Winds will be
strongest in the Sacramento mountains tonight. It will cold and
dry behind the system on Thursday with a gradual warm up through
the weekend. Additional weather systems will bring a slight chance
of rain and mountain snow to the area for Sunday and the first
part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The local weather pattern will become more active over the next 24
hours as a pair of upper level short wave low pressure troughs
move through the region. The first system is on a track that will
take it south of El Paso during the day. Weather impacts from the
system will be minimal with only slight chance of light rain or
sprinkles expected for areas along the international border during
the day. Skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures will be
above normal in the mid to upper 60s for most lowland areas.
Winds will shift around to the west and begin to increase into the
breezy and windy categories later this afternoon.

The next short wave trough will quickly drop down from the four
corners region and track southeastward across New Mexico
overnight. strong upper level winds and a fair amount of pressure
gradient tightening are associated with this system. This will
result in a strong winds overnight especially over the mountains.
The area that will be particularly impacted will be the Sacramento
mountains with sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70
mph possible tonight.

High wind warnings will be in effect from this afternoon through
mid morning Thursday for the Sacramento mountains, southeastern
Otero County. Winds will also be near or at warning criteria for
the eastern slopes of the Black Range in western Sierra county for
the same time period. Lowland areas of Sierra County and the
Tularosa basin will be under a wind advisory for lesser but still
strong wind speeds of 30 to 40 mph overnight. Wind advisories will
also be in effect for portions of far west Texas including El
Paso and Hudspeth counties, especially along the east slopes of
area mountains.

Temperatures will turn much colder on Thursday as a cold canadian
air mass fills in behind the departing weather system. Expect
below normal temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s for
afternoon highs across the lowlands. Cold and dry conditions will
persist into Saturday as a ridge of high pressure moves over the
area. There will be a gradual warming trend each day with near
normal temperatures by Saturday.

The weather pattern will become more unsettled and uncertain for
Sunday and the first part next week. Long range models project
another pair of low pressure systems to move through the region.
However, the models greatly differ on intensity, track and timing
of these systems. A low confidence forecast projects at least of
slight chance of precipitation for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday from
these systems. The first system will be on a more southerly track
that will allow it to tap some sub tropical moisture for a mostly
rain scenario. The second system may be colder with a some chance
for snow or a rain snow mix for portions of the lower elevations
by Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 12/12Z-13/12Z...
VFR conditions expected with winds increasing this evening. Skies
will remain FEW-SCT150 BKN200. Air traffic to KELP may see VCSH
primarily to the south between 16Z-20Z. Winds will be the primary
concern tonight into tomorrow morning as winds of 250-280 at 05-10KT
increase after 21Z to 280-300 at 20G35KT. Weak FROPA at 09Z-12Z
turning winds to 290-320.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Two upper level systems will pass by the region today into
tomorrow. The first will pass to the south this afternoon with
little impact. A stray shower or two is possible along the
U.S./Mexico border, however most areas will remain dry. The
second system arrives this evening and will bring strong winds to
the area. Winds will increase this evening and peak late tonight.
The strongest winds are expected over the Sacramento Mountains
with gusts to around 70 mph along the ridgeline. Dryer air moves
in behind the system, bringing this afternoon's minimum RH of
30-40% down into the upper teens to end the week. Dry conditions
with light winds are expected this weekend into next week as upper
level ridging brings temperatures back to near normal. Vent rates
will be fair to good the next two days before going back to poor
this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 64 38 51 28 / 10 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 61 35 48 25 / 10 0 0 0
Las Cruces 63 33 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 61 33 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 47 21 33 18 / 0 10 0 0
Truth or Consequences 62 32 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 54 29 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 62 30 51 22 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 59 30 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 63 38 51 30 / 10 0 0 0
Dell City 65 33 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 66 37 53 26 / 10 0 0 0
Loma Linda 59 34 45 27 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 64 37 52 26 / 10 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 63 35 50 25 / 10 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 62 36 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 62 31 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 64 32 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 64 34 52 25 / 10 0 0 0
Orogrande 63 34 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 57 27 42 22 / 0 10 0 0
Mescalero 53 26 40 21 / 0 10 0 0
Timberon 52 25 39 20 / 0 10 0 0
Winston 57 23 47 18 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 61 29 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 62 30 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 54 22 49 17 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 56 28 49 21 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 58 23 54 19 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 57 26 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 57 30 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 62 31 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 61 28 51 21 / 10 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 62 32 53 25 / 10 0 0 0
Cloverdale 57 33 51 28 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST Thursday for
NMZ409-412-413.

High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST Thursday
for NMZ402-408-414>417.

TX...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST Thursday for
TXZ419>422.

&&

$$

04/30 Lundeen/Dennhardt
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