FXUS64 KEWX 190847
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
347 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019
.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
A dampening mid and upper level shortwave early this morning is
generating mid level clouds across the northern CWA. It is possible
a stray shower or two could move across Llano and Burnet counties
early this morning before the shortwave weakens further and moves
east, however drier low levels could result in mainly virga.
A low level return flow will set up this afternoon and tonight, with
the moisture axis developing across the southern CWA this afternoon
and across the western CWA tonight. Some HREF members are developing
a few showers this afternoon roughly near the I-37 corridor. For now
we have a silent 10 PoP this afternoon across this area. Isolated
showers are expected to develop through the southwest CWA and into
the western Hill Country overnight and Wednesday morning as low level
flow and moisture increase.
A weak front is forecast to move into the Hill Country and Central
Texas Wednesday afternoon and to just south of the I-10 corridor
Wednesday night. The Texas Tech WRF the past two runs has been
generating isolated showers ahead of the front across the Hill
Country and I-35 corridor Wednesday afternoon, along with the
isolated showers across the western CWA closer to the moisture
axis. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF are indicating this scenario as well.
We have expanded the 20 PoP on Wednesday farther east, into the
eastern Hill Country and I-35 corridor.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Shower activity will decrease Wednesday evening. As the weak front
stalls over southern and western areas Thursday morning the moisture
axis will remain confined close to and west of the Rio Grande. Most
of the region will remain dry Thursday, with near to slightly below
Models have come into better agreement with the timing and amplitude
of the next upstream trough, and have trended further north of the
area with the main forcing and lower with PoPs over the CWA Friday
and Saturday. Nevertheless, scattered showers and a few elevated
thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Friday into Friday
night as a disturbance in the southwest flow aloft moves across the
region. The highest PoPs Friday into Friday night look to be across
the northwest CWA. Better chances for scattered showers and storms
should expand into central and eastern areas of the CWA Saturday as
the tail end of large scale forcing interacts with increasing
A low chance for isolated showers and storms may extended into Sunday
and Sunday night as moisture remains pooled over the region and the
dry line moves into western portions of the CWA. A front is forecast
to move through the area Monday, however cooler air is lagging until
Monday night. Monday afternoon could turn out to be a warm, dry, and
breezy day, with highs temperatures in the mid 80s possible.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 71 48 71 49 71 / 0 - 20 - 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 47 71 48 71 / 0 - 20 - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 48 70 49 72 / 0 - 20 - 0
Burnet Muni Airport 67 47 68 47 70 / - 0 20 - 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 68 53 68 55 70 / 0 10 20 20 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 69 46 69 46 70 / - 0 20 - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 70 51 70 52 74 / - 20 20 - 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 70 47 70 48 71 / 0 - 20 - 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 46 71 49 71 / 0 0 - - 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 68 51 70 51 72 / - 10 20 - 0
Stinson Muni Airport 70 52 70 51 73 / 10 10 20 - 0
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