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FXUS64 KEWX 240821
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
321 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Despite the remnants of Beta now being well east of our area over
Mississippi, the storm has left a rather large cloud shield in its
wake across eastern Texas, SE Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas. The
eroding of this cloud deck through the afternoon hours today will
honestly be the most interesting feature of the short term. With San
Antonio now well clear of the clouds, the SA Metro as well as points
westward towards Del Rio should warm in the mid 80s to lower 90s
this afternoon. Areas where the clouds stick around through part of
the day (the Hill Country, Austin Metro, and the I-10 corridor east
of I-35) will all see slightly lower afternoon highs in the low 80s.
Tonight should be mostly clear with lows dropping to the low to mid
60s, and highs on Friday under sunny skies should reach from the mid
80s to mid 90s across all of South Central Texas - with the hottest
temperatures along the Rio Grande. This is all thanks to a weak
ridge at the surface which will keep winds northerly for one more
day. As the ridge slides eastward on Friday, following the trough
that was once Beta, winds will be light but begin to shift around to
the south signaling the return of Gulf moisture to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Inverted troughing pattern over the Gulf will be brought northward
over the state and deepen on Friday night into Saturday. Moisture
return at the surface as well as a warming trend will continue for
the start of the long term period. Very dry mid level air will still
be in place over the region but depending on where the exact
placement of this deepening upper level low is on Saturday may mean
possible chances for rain. As this low opens up and pulls eastward
away from the region, it looks to bring a weak front to the region.
Models diverge on how far this boundary makes it into South-Central
Texas but medium range guidance and global guidance have trended
wetter for the Sunday night into Monday timeframe. Introducing slight
chance POPs for northeastern counties in association with this
boundary.

A longwave trough passing over the Central US and into the Midwest
from the Monday to Wednesday will bring a stronger frontal boundary
to South-Central Texas for the middle part of next week. As of now,
the GFS is only solution that has precip on Tuesday evening in
association with this fropa. Would like to see a bit more guidance
suggesting precip before introducing mentionable POPs into the
forecast.

Temperatures will take a hit for Wednesday thanks to the front.
Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for
Wednesday and Thursday to end the long term period. Beyond this, the
region looks to remain in northwesterly flow aloft which will be
something to watch as it is notoriously difficult to forecast
convection for.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 82 61 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 82 61 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 83 61 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 81 59 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 90 66 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 82 60 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 91 63 93 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 82 60 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 62 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 86 64 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 86 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Treadway
Long-Term...EWilliams
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