FXUS64 KEWX 091139 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. NEXT ONE WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER 21Z WITH
CIGS LOWERING AND RAINFALL BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD. WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS FOG AND
RAIN. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
MVFR TO VFR SKIES AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE RAINFALL
BEGINS AFTER 20Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARRIVE AFTER 03Z AND WILL
BECOME IFR AFTER 08Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRI.
WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
E/NE TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN BECOME S/SE AFTER 16Z-18Z. COLD
FROM WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL ARRIVE 13Z-16Z FRI.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE WET LATE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. THIS MORNING A CUT-OFF LOW
WAS LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM S/W
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC
SCALE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WAA ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE HIRES NMM/ARM AND 00Z NAM DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES PEAKING
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING
AS THE NORTHERN STREAM S/W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS THE FREEZING LEVEL
LOWERS TO AROUND 9500 FT WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -2C. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED WEAK
CAA.
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. ISOLATED ONE
INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED OVER BAJA WILL
EJECT AS AN OPEN TROF ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W. THESE FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER OVER
TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN THANKS TO THE
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT/SFC TROF. THE BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRY
AIR ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY-LINE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM ON THE DRY-LINE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE 70S WITH NEAR 80 POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 48 61 42 59 / 10 70 50 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 47 61 40 59 / 10 70 50 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 48 62 42 61 / 10 70 50 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 57 46 59 38 57 / 10 70 50 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 49 64 44 65 / 10 50 30 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 58 46 60 39 57 / 10 70 50 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 65 41 63 / 10 60 50 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 48 62 41 60 / 10 70 50 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 48 61 43 60 / 10 70 60 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 49 63 43 62 / 10 70 50 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 50 64 44 63 / 10 60 50 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
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