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FXUS64 KEWX 172046
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
246 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
A surge of low to mid level clouds signals the approach of the next
weather system for tonight. A cold front will arrive in the pre-dawn
hours over the Hill Country and should push through our southern
counties by 15Z. After 06Z tonight showers will begin to form in the
warm sector mainly near and south of SAT through 09Z and then begin
forming along the front as it enters our northern counties between
09Z and 12Z. The troughing pattern over Canada and the Nrn US
responsible for the front is quite dampened over the Central US as a
persistent zonal pattern aloft remains over TX. Thus the front is
expected to produce moderate cooling and will remain shallow enough
to produce overrunning rain chances through the weekend.

There's a slight chance of thunder over parts of the Coastal
prairies early Saturday but mainly due to deeper moisture and not
from any dynamic support aloft. The Sunday overrunning pattern should
focus mostly east of Highway 281 where the elevated moist layer is
deeper.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The overrunning pattern weakens slightly and pulls east Monday, but
cloud cover and light NE winds keep clouds overhead for continued
cool max temps. Another weak polar trough drops through the Midwest
and brings another front into TX for early Tuesday. This push of
frontal air should be drier and deeper, so we should see some
partial clearing over the northern counties at least for Tuesday
afternoon. The drying trend is short-lived as a disturbance moving in
the zonal pattren aloft is on track to bring a quick round of rain
chances by Wednesday. Another disturbance passing mainly north of TX
into the Central Plains Thursday will hold the winds over our area
out of the E/NE and maintain mostly cloudy to cloudy skies through
Thursday night. While there isn't much of a frontal push into South
TX with this system for Friday, a subsident regime in its wake could
clear out the low level moisture for Friday afternoon. The rapid fire
of these zonal disturbances are often handled poorly on timing and
locations, so the chance of rain and frontal impacts could be off
mainly in timing. The deterministic 12Z GFS/ECM runs show poor
agreement for next weekend to reflect this low confidence, the
general trend is that the weather should remain cool but relatively
mild by late November standards for the holiday weekend. Rain chances
look to be low, but that could change with the tracks of the fast
moving zonal perturbations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 52 55 43 54 44 / 40 40 50 50 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 52 55 43 54 43 / 40 50 50 50 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 55 56 44 54 44 / 50 50 50 50 20
Burnet Muni Airport 46 53 40 55 41 / 30 20 30 30 -
Del Rio Intl Airport 53 57 47 62 49 / 10 20 20 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 48 54 40 54 41 / 40 30 40 40 10
Hondo Muni Airport 56 60 46 G 59 45 / 30 30 40 30 20 San Marcos Muni
Airport 55 56 44 54 43 / 40 50 50 50 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional
57 59 45 53 44 / 40 70 60 50 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 56 57 45 56
46 / 40 40 40 50 20 Stinson Muni Airport 58 59 46 57 46 / 50 50 40
50 20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Huffman
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...BMW
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