FXUS64 KEWX 202326 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.
VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the current
forecast period. Light north-northeasterly winds along I-35 will
continue overnight. Winds will then transition to a more east-
southeast direction by mid-morning on Wednesday. At DRT, light and
variable winds this evening transition to a more easterly direction
overnight. By mid-morning, southeast winds will become gusty at DRT.
SKC-FEW250 is in store for cloud cover.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
No weather headlines through Wednesday as slightly cooler then
normal low temperatures occur with near normal afternoon highs and
dry, clear conditions.
Northwest mid-level flow overtop a strengthening surface high
pressure system will allow for tranquil conditions across much of
Texas next several days. Humidity has fallen again into the 20 and 30
percentiles this afternoon but winds are quite light due to the weak
pressure gradient. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
are ongoing across the far west Rio Grande Plains but conditions are
vastly improved from yesterday.
Expect the coolest morning of the week Wednesday as dry air and light
winds with clear sky allows for good radiational cooling.
Temperatures will rebound into the 70s and some spot low 80s in the
southwest tomorrow afternoon under the full early Spring insolation
as south winds return.
LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Confidence in an active and wet pattern continues to increase for
early next week that could persist into mid to late next week. A few
rounds of strong thunderstorms and pockets of heavy rainfall hazards
will need to be monitored for as we get closer to this time period.
Before then, above normal temperatures and dry conditions persist
through late week with only small chance of lighter and limited rain
coverage over the weekend.
Moisture and temperatures will be on the increase by late week as
south to southeast low-level wind fetch develops. A trough across the
west coast and departing eastern low-level ridge will allow for
PWATs to climb into the 1.1-1.3" range. Lows each morning will
increase by 5-8F degrees with lows Friday and Saturday only falling
into the low to mid 60s. Highs into the weekend will be above normal
in the 80s. Low clouds and patchy fog could return Saturday with mist
that morning along with isolated afternoon showers trapped
underneath a strong capping inversion. Due to the inversion strength,
have opted to place shower wording in official forecast vs.
thunderstorm wording at this time.
By late weekend and into early next week, a series of lower latitude
shortwave troughs pivoting across Mexico and the southern four-
corners region will interact with the increased available moisture.
In addition, a frontal boundary may be near the vicinity of south-
central Texas early next week. All combined, with the upper level
lift support and surface frontogenesis forcing possibilities,
multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms appear possible per
this pattern set-up. Mid and long-range global models suggest that
2-5 inches could occur next week over the course of several days as
PWATs increase further to near 1.5". Stay tuned through the late week
and weekend on this developing pattern that could help provide some
relief to the current drought conditions.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 47 77 53 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 44 77 50 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 45 77 51 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 44 75 51 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 51 80 56 81 63 / 0 0 0 - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 44 76 50 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 46 79 53 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 44 77 50 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 44 77 51 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 47 77 54 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 47 79 54 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway
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