FXUS64 KEWX 191947
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
The heat is on as temperatures currently reside in the mid 90s for
most of the region with heat indices ranging from the mid to upper
100s. As such, a heat advisory is in effect through 7 pm tonight. A
mid level impulse moving from west to east across North Texas,
Oklahoma, and into Arkansas will produce scattered severe
thunderstorms across much of North Texas this afternoon and evening.
Some storms may make it as far south as Central Texas. Most
convection allowing models keep the storms north of our County
Warning Area, but portions of northern Burnet and Williamson
Counties could perhaps be in play, with large hail and damaging
thunderstorm winds being the primary hazards. Tonight will be warm
again, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s with typical early
morning low clouds for much of the region.
Tomorrow will likely be the hottest day of the forecast period as
ridging remains in place. Highs will range from the upper 90s across
the Hill Country, to near 100 for the Interstate 35 corridor, to the
mid 100s along the Rio Grande. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will
send heat indices soaring to 108 to 112 degrees for areas along and
south/east of the Balcones Escarpment. Simply put, it will be
miserable. A heat advisory will be needed once again for Thursday
afternoon and early evening. Thursday night will be a near repeat of
tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)...
Friday will be a bit cooler as the ridge weakens due to the
influence of troughing across the western CONUS. Highs will primarily
reside in the mid to upper 90s (100+ along Rio Grande). Heat indices
will peak from 105 to 108 for areas along and south/east of the
Escarpment on Friday afternoon. So it will still be miserable, but
slightly less miserable than today and Thursday. The region is
expected to continue to stay dry on Friday.
Saturday will be quite similar to Friday, but perhaps a degree or two
cooler both in actual temperatures and in heat indices. The upper
level trough will slide into the Utah/Colorado/Wyoming area by mid
day Saturday, putting us under the influence of southwest flow aloft.
For Sunday through Tuesday, a series of weak upper level disturbances
will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. For now, have
capped PoPs at 30 percent due to uncertainty. Temperatures during
this period will range from near 90 across the Hill Country, low to
mid 90s for the Austin/San Antonio metro areas, to near 100 along
the Rio Grande. Heat indices will be a big higher than actual
temperatures, but it does not appear that we will be threatening heat
advisory criteria at this point.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 77 100 77 96 78 / 10 0 0 - -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 100 77 96 78 / 10 0 0 - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 100 76 96 76 / - 0 0 - -
Burnet Muni Airport 76 98 75 95 76 / 10 0 0 - -
Del Rio Intl Airport 77 103 78 99 78 / - 0 - - 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 76 100 76 96 77 / 20 0 0 - -
Hondo Muni Airport 76 104 77 101 77 / - 0 - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 76 100 76 97 76 / - 0 0 - -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 99 79 96 78 / 10 0 0 - -
San Antonio Intl Airport 77 101 77 98 77 / - 0 - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 78 101 77 98 78 / - 0 - - -
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-
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