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FXUS64 KEWX 201950
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Other than a few isolated showers across areas east of I-35, and a
few sprinkles along the I-35 corridor all of the precipitation today
has been concentrated over the Houston area. Through the afternoon
due to the moist southerly flow there could still be a couple of
isolated showers or storms. For tonight and tomorrow morning a few
streamer showers will be possible mainly across areas along and east
of I-35. The typical low clouds and patchy fog that Central Texas
sees with southerly flow is also forecast. By Saturday afternoon with
the added day time heating an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible, but chances remain low and confined to the eastern areas
due to capping and where the focus of the more significant moisture
resides. Temperatures will be warm ahead of the front expected
Saturday night. Highs for Saturday will be in the upper 80s with
south winds continuing. This will result in afternoon heat index
values in the lower 90s. As you venture out enjoying your weekend
plans be on the lookout for the isolated storms, and be aware of the
hot and humid October afternoon expected on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The biggest weather feature of the next seven days, and the long
advertised front will arrive Saturday night. The front is now within
the time frame of several high resolution models from the Texas Tech
WRF to the ARW and NMM. As the trough pivots into Texas and the front
moves south showers and thunderstorms will form along and ahead of
the front. While the focus of the shower and thunderstorm activity,
including the best chance for strong to severe storms, will be north
of the area - from DFW into Oklahoma - there is a chance that Central
Texas could see a few strong to severe storms with the front. Model
soundings are showing a weakly capped or uncapped atmosphere with
1500-2000 j/kg of CAPE and plenty of shear could lead to these strong
to severe storms. Because of this the Storm Prediction Center has
extended the marginal risk area southwestward to include much of the
I-35 corridor. The primary threat will be strong thunderstorm winds
with the line of storms, along with hail. The current timing of the
front looks to be between 5am and 9am for the Austin Metro area, 9am
to noon for the San Antonio Metro, and out of our southern counties
along the coastal plains by 1pm to 3pm in the afternoon. Behind the
front skies will clear and winds will shift out of the north and be
gusty at times up to 25 mph.

Temperature behind the front will cool slightly with highs on Sunday
only expected in the upper 70s. Next week will be dry and mostly
sunny through the week. Another front arrives on Tuesday which will
help reinforce the north winds, dry conditions, and slightly cooler
temperatures. The next rain maker could be another front, just beyond
the forecast period, late next week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 83 70 86 65 77 / 40 20 20 80 40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 69 87 66 76 / 40 20 30 80 50
New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 69 88 66 78 / 30 20 20 70 50
Burnet Muni Airport 79 67 84 60 74 / 30 20 20 80 30
Del Rio Intl Airport 82 67 85 62 80 / 10 10 - 40 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 81 68 86 63 75 / 40 20 20 80 40
Hondo Muni Airport 85 68 88 65 82 / 20 10 10 70 40
San Marcos Muni Airport 84 69 87 66 78 / 30 20 20 80 50
La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 70 87 68 77 / 40 20 40 60 70
San Antonio Intl Airport 85 69 88 67 80 / 30 10 20 70 40
Stinson Muni Airport 86 69 90 68 80 / 20 10 10 70 50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams
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