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FXUS62 KEYW 090712
AFDEYW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHALLOW AND BRIEF SHOWERS SPROUTING ON
THE FRINGES OF OUR GULF WATERS AND EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OTHERWISE...AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH HAVE KEPT THE SURFACE WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST. SPEEDS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AT ALL CMAN REPORTING
STATIONS...AND THE ISLAND SENSORS ARE REGISTERING 5 MPH ON AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION HAS ALLOWED
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS ALIGNMENT WILL LAST LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...KEEPING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN PLACE
PROBABLY UNTIL AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST MID LEVEL VORT
MAX MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THE STEERING ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW PERIODIC CLOUD LINES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE KEPT THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCE OVER THE LARGER ISLANDS OF THE LOWER
KEYS GOING FOR BOTH THOSE PERIODS. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE GRIDS
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES UNTIL LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED/LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR A WIDER EXTENT OF THE SERVICE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. MORE VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS NUDGES NORTHWARD. NO CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
ISLAND TERMINALS WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 90 79 90 79 / 30 20 30 20
MARATHON 92 79 92 79 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

04/11

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