FXUS62 KFFC 200059
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
859 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019
Convection is diminishing across the area and have adjusted hourly
POPs based upon the latest trends. Have continued chance POPs
overnight based upon Hi-RES models. Lower ceilings and patchy fog
still expected toward morning. Updated forecasts issued shortly.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Weak upper level trough over the area will support higher
precipitation coverage through the short term. The trough has
allowed deeper moisture to advect into the area, contributing to a
moist and unsettled airmass over the state. A surface low nearby
will traverse the state through Tuesday, triggering greater diurnally-
driven storm development each afternoon and evening. Forecast
continues to show areas of likely pops each afternoon, with good
chance pops elsewhere.
Widespread severe weather is not a concern through the short term,
although it is still possible for a few storms to become strong to
marginally severe. The main concerns are gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.
Increased cloudiness and storm coverage will result in slightly
cooler high temperatures on Tuesday. Expect most areas to reach only
the upper 80s to low 90s, with Heat Index values under 100.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
Diurnally driven scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be the norm in the extended periods of the forecast. The area
will remain situated in the weak upper trough between the ridge
over the Plains and western Atlantic ridge. Moisture continues to
slowly increase across the area through the end of the week which
will will provide a boost each afternoon for convective development.
By the end of the week, the models are showing a cold front
pushing south out of the great lake state Thursday and into North
GA Friday. The models show this frontal boundary stalling across the
southeastern U.S. and keeping rain chances across the region
through the end of the forecast period. Another weaker wave also
pushes northeast out of the western gulf which will also keep
precip chances going through day 7. As for now, will continue
with scattered to numerous convection each day.
Temperatures, while tempered somewhat by increased convection, will
remain above normal through the week. The increased moisture will
also keep afternoon heat index values from the upper 90s to low
AVIATION.../Issued 740 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019/
Convection has started to wind down at the TAF sites and expect it
to end by 01Z. Models showing MVFR/IFR CIGs approaching south TAF
sites and staying south and east of the ATL area sites. Winds will
be east through the period, diminishing to 5kts or less by 02Z.
Winds will shift to the south and southeast between 22-24Z.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium Confidence all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 94 71 89 70 / 100 70 60 50
Atlanta 94 73 89 72 / 0 30 50 40
Blairsville 89 65 85 65 / 100 20 50 40
Cartersville 94 71 92 71 / 100 20 40 30
Columbus 95 74 90 72 / 20 50 50 30
Gainesville 92 71 89 71 / 30 30 50 40
Macon 93 72 88 71 / 30 50 60 40
Rome 94 71 93 72 / 50 20 30 30
Peachtree City 93 71 91 71 / 0 30 50 40
Vidalia 88 72 89 72 / 10 50 50 40
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