FXUS62 KFFC 230033 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
833 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Except for maybe a few showers over portions of N GA, a generally
quiet night is in store.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 700 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

The warm temps are continuing but we are starting the transition
back to near seasonal norms for the beginning of the work week. Day
time highs are still running about 5-10 deg above seasonal norms
today but temps are expected to be about 5 deg lower for Sunday. The
strong upper ridge has finally pushed off the carolina coast ands is
allowing increased moisture and increased chances of precipitation
to move in across the area today and Sunday. Going with slight to
chance Pops across N GA as next frontal system nears the area. The
developing frontal system extending from the New England states down
to Eastern TX will move slowly eastward over the next 24 hours
pushing Deep layer moisture into TN and Northern AL. The increased
moisture with this front nears North and especially NW GA by Sunday
morning. The deeper moisture does not push into our area until
Sunday night but we do see a definite beginning to a pattern change
from hot and dry to warm and moist in the short term.


LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

No big changes were made to the extended. GFS/ECMWF both
in fair agreement with the upper air pattern. ECMWF now looks like
it may want to push the front at the end of the period into north
GA...in line with the GFS. However...since this could change with
upcoming model runs...have chosen to stay with a low chance of
pops throughout. Previous discussion is included below.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 518 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018/

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Fcst period will see higher pops due to a transition to a regime
of more moisture and conditional instability. While a fairly
strong wedge should build into the area from the NE for Monday, it
should primarily serve to keep parts of the area a bit more stable
and some highs confined to the low 80s though expecting scattered
showers given overrunning moisture, and general chance thunder
elsewhere. Some weak impulses in a rather elongated trough draped
across the MS/TN valleys could focus greater convective coverage
for north GA going into midweek, then model solutions diverge some
in the evolution of the trough and associated front/moisture axis
for Thurs/Fri. The GFS continues to be a bit more progressive with
getting a front into the area, while the Euro is more stagnant and
keeps ridge shifted more to the east. Have kept general chance
pops for this period given the uncertainty.

Temps will still be slightly above normal, though noticeably
cooler than what we've had recently given the aforementioned
moisture/precip potential.


00Z Update...
VFR conditions expected to continue with Few-Sct 5000-10000 ft
clouds overnight and Sct-Bkn 4000-6000 ft clouds Sunday. Surface
winds calm or light and variable overnight and ESE less than 10
kts for Sunday. Best shower and storm chances will be over N GA

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence for cloud amounts and heights.
Low confidence for any convection affecting the airfield Sunday.
High confidence for vsbys and winds.



Athens 67 87 68 82 / 10 20 40 50
Atlanta 70 87 70 83 / 10 20 40 50
Blairsville 63 81 63 76 / 20 40 40 50
Cartersville 68 88 69 82 / 20 30 30 50
Columbus 69 91 71 88 / 5 20 20 40
Gainesville 68 84 68 79 / 20 30 40 50
Macon 68 91 70 88 / 5 20 40 50
Rome 68 89 69 83 / 20 30 30 50
Peachtree City 67 88 69 84 / 10 20 30 40
Vidalia 70 90 71 88 / 10 30 30 50




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