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FXUS62 KFFC 240042
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
842 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018


.UPDATE...
General trend over the last 2 to 3 hours has been a diminishing
trend in the convection. Hi-res models also show this diminish
across north Georgia through tonight and have therefore lowered
pops across north Georgia for tonight. However, hi-res models are
showing another wave of convection developing along and south of
the fall line later this evening. Have therefore held on to high-
chance pops across central Georgia for much of tonight. With the
tropical atmosphere, any thunderstorm could produce high rain
rates and therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch across
central Georgia.

No other changes planned.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION.../Issued 350 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Current regional satellite and radar loops show a fairly organized
line of showers and thunderstorms extending from the Myrtle Beach
area to New Orleans. This line is not moving very much and
bringing some very strong storms to central portions of the
state. This system will not move very much through the short term
and is still a very moist system with a tropical component. PWs
will remain in the 1.7 to 2.0 inch range expected to continue
through Thursday night. As a result, very heavy, efficient
rainfall and high rainfall rates will definitely be possible today
and Thursday. Any locations that see slow moving, heavy rainfall
may experience issues with flooding so stay alert to any warnings
or road closers in your area. Currently have likely to definite
pops across the majority of the area for the rest of today and
Thursday. These storms are diurnally driven so activity should
diminish some tonight and Thursday night, but the heavy rain
threat will still exist. Max temps will generally be in the 80s
across the area with Mins in the upper 60s to near 70.

01

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Still watching the tropics as the main concern going into the latter
part of the holiday weekend. Models are varying on the evolution of
the current Yucatan invest low from NHC that now has a 60 percent
chance of becoming a named in the next five days. It's now making
into the end of the Nam solution which is more in agreement with the
persistent Euro as keeping it more organized and pushing slowly into
the northern Gulf by Sunday...then more uncertainly in its
evolution/progression. Regardless, the abnormally moist environment
looks more of a sure bet into next week so unfortunately daily
scattered to numerous showers are expected with thunderstorms
possible given afternoon heating that could persist overnight. Minor
adjustments made to fcst though largely not much different than
before. Previous discussion follows...

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
No major changes from previous forecast. Convection will diminish
through this evening with low clouds developing late tonight with
MVFR/IFR widespread. Cigs will improve through Thursday morning
with convection developing again. Winds will be light easterly or
calm through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium to high on all elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 67 81 66 79 / 20 80 60 70
Atlanta 69 81 68 79 / 20 70 60 60
Blairsville 62 80 63 77 / 30 50 50 60
Cartersville 67 84 67 81 / 20 60 50 60
Columbus 70 83 70 84 / 50 70 60 70
Gainesville 67 80 66 77 / 20 60 60 60
Macon 69 81 68 82 / 50 80 70 70
Rome 67 85 67 82 / 20 50 40 60
Peachtree City 68 82 67 80 / 30 70 60 60
Vidalia 70 83 69 83 / 50 80 60 70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...
Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Hancock...Harris...
Houston...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...
Marion...Monroe...Montgomery...Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...
Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...
Treutlen...Twiggs...Upson...Warren...Washington...Webster...
Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...17
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