FXUS63 KFGF 131019
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
419 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2010
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. WHEN LOOKING AT THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
DVL...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO W SD. WHEN COMPARING THE
MODELS...THE MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK....SO ENDED UP USING A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS
AND LEANED TOWARD ADJMAV AND ADJMEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE N PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO MON...WHICH WILL BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY
THE MN PART OF THE AREA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE N PLAINS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND FROM LIFR-VFR VSBYS IN FOG TO CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT N WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MANY TRIBUTARIES IN MN ARE RESPONDING TO THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT OF
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MOST NOTABLY THE WILD RICE RIVER IN MN AND THE
RED LAKE RIVERS. FLOOD STAGE HAS BEEN REACHED AT CROOKSTON AND
SABIN EARLY THIS MORNING. ICE ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE EVIDENT ON
AREA GAGES AS READINGS ARE VERY VARIABLE. AN ICE JAM IS ONGOING AT
TWIN VALLEY...CAUSING RIVER LEVELS TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.
HOWEVER...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT THIS IS VERY TYPICAL FOR
SPRING MELT AND THE SITUATION HAS VIRTUALLY NO IMPACT AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR FARGO...WAHPETON AND DILWORTH TO MATCH
THE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST RIVER LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR GAGES AND WILL VERIFY RIVER LEVELS WITH DAYLIGHT.
ONGOING AREAL FLOODING IN THE S VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DITCHES AND CULVERTS OPEN AND ALLOW WATER TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE RIVER SYSTEM.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-028>030-038-039-049-052>054.
AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHLAND AND CASS COUNTIES.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ002-003-
017-022>024-027>032-040.
AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR WILKIN...CLAY AND NORMAN COUNTIES.
&&
$$
NG
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page |
