FXUS63 KFGF 060349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1049 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Issued at 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

As the sun has set the winds have calmed from earlier in the day.
Still looking like a quiet night with mostly clear to clear skies.
Thunderstorms with some strong to severe will be the main impact
on Saturday.

UPDATE Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Some breezy winds still present, but these winds should weaken as
we head towards sunset later this evening. Pretty quiet night
ahead with lots of activity this weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Mostly clear skies this afternoon will give way to increasing cloud
cover during the evening and overnight hours. Warmer air, along with
increasing moisture, will begin working northward into the CWA as we
head into Saturday. Mixing ratios increase substantially overnight,
approaching 12 to 15 g/Kg by sunrise. PW values climb through the
day, reaching the 1.00 to 1.22 inch range by Saturday evening.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will be our primary expectation
through early afternoon Saturday. The chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms will increase during the late evening and into the
overnight hours however, especially west of the Red River as a 700
mb shortwave approaches the area.

The risk for weather-related impacts will increase during the mid to
late afternoon as the H7 trough approaches and provides better
forcing. Storm mode Saturday night will likely be an elevated
complex or cluster of storms with a primary risk of hail and
isolated severe wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Sunday promises to be an interesting day severe wise. The details
as usual are still blurry at this point. One wave of showers and
thunderstorms should be exiting parts of NW MN Sunday AM and I would
expect some clearing to occur to allow for surface heating. Blended
model solutions indicate sfc temps rising into the upper 80s and low
90s over E ND/RRV Sunday aftn, while clouds will be slower to clear
out farther east as highs hold in the low-mid 80s eastern fcst area.
Instability not a problem as dew points surge into the mid to upper
60s in E ND/RRV providing MUCAPES 3000+ j/kg. Bulk shear also
remains favorable in the 45-55 kt range. Issue is a trigger. Would
appear a short wave will move into north central SD by 00z Mon and
then move northeast from there. Initial sfc based storms/supercells
in south central ND and north central SD would move NE thru E ND/RRV
Sunday evening with MCS potential...with entire area affecting NW MN
as well Sunday night, though severe risk does weaken a bit after 06z
Mon. Therefore agree with higher svr risk eastern ND vs MN. Sunday
period is just beyond most CAMs. But set up favors a middle to
possibly higher end event for our area with all modes of severe
weather psbl. CIPS Analog indicate 80+ percent of getting 5 severe
reports in E ND with forecast pattern for Sunday aftn/eve.

Monday will see main instability axis shift a bit east but how far
east is in question as ensembles of GFS and ops ECMWF differ. So
depending on placement of instability axis strong or severe storms
again psbl. Warm day once again and humid. with highs 90 or low 90s
Red River east.

Tuesday...moisture from tropical system moving into the western Gulf
will move north, and could bring enhanced rainfall Tuesday to parts
of the Upper Midwest. Right now that favors more just east of the
forecast area. But how this moisture tracks depends on 500 mb
features which by that time is uncertain.

Rest of the week, GFS/Canadian indicate a cooler pattern as upper
low over Alberta moves east and then southeast Wednesday over the
area. ECMWF operational run keeps it north. Ensembles support
varied solns so confidence is low on any potential upper trough
placement and resultant precip placement.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites tonight and Saturday
morning. The elevated winds from earlier in the day on Friday have
now become light overnight. The winds will pick up again on
Saturday, but the highest winds will be tied to thunderstorm
activity starting Saturday afternoon. Saturday afternoon DVL is
most likely to see thunderstorm activity with chance increasing at
other terminals later in the afternoon. The best chance of
thunderstorm activity will be Saturday night. During these
thunderstorms conditions could fall into IFR at times.



LONG TERM...Riddle
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