FXUS63 KFGF 061424
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
924 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW HAS CAUSED THE GULF TO REMAIN
OPEN...AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE RUNNING OVER 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AT 12Z (1.34 AT KABR)...AND WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TODAY...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.
THE AREA WILL ALSO BE IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET...SO
WILL BE GOING NEAR 100 POPS FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY.
DRYING WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON...AND THIS
TREND IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT GRIDS. I WILL INCREASE QPF
AMOUNTS A BIT...AND GO IN THE 0.50 TO NEAR 0.7 INCH RANGE IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE WILL CHECK OVER THE CURRENT
GRIDS...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS NEEDED TODAY.

THE FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH
ONCE CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WE WILL ADD A MENTION TO THE
GRIDS AND MOVE IT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS TO RULE MOST OF THE DAY...WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS AT
TIMES THRU 17Z. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW HOLES IN THE LOWER CLOUD
DECK BUT THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY AND TURN GRADUALLY WEST BEHIND A SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH WILL PASS THRU DVL NR 18Z AND GFK-FAR NR 00Z AND TVF
NR 03Z AND BJI NR 12Z TUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2008/

SHORT TERM...
FCST CHALLENGE IS ENDING TIME OF PCPN. TWO SEPARATE 500 MB WAVES
THIS MORNING...ONE OVER NRN TX WITH A LARGE AREA OF 40KT 850 MB
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM ERN TX INTO ERN ND/WRN MN SENDING MOISTURE
OUR WAY. ONE BAND OF WARM ADV PCPN MOVING THRU AREA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING UP TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN...BUT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FEED NORTHWARD IN SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW. IN ADDITION...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE OVER MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY AND HELP SHIFT NRN
SECTION OF PCPN EASTWARD THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH ASSOC WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE NR A ESTEVAN TO BISMARCK TO WEST OF HURON SD LINE.
HEAVIER RAINS JUST EAST OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AHD OF
SHORT WAVE. RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAINS IN ERN ND THRU 18Z
THEN THE FOCUS THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT MORE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WRN MN. AFTER 00Z...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EAST OF THE RIVER OVER
MINNESOTA. MONTANA SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...AND HAVE LESS IMPACT ON HELPING TO MOVE
FRONT EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN A SLOWER END TO PCPN TO
MUCH OF MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT GRIDDS
HAVE THIS PEGGED PRETTY WELL WITH ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE
FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. TOTAL RAIN AMTS WILL BE 1 TO 1.50 INCHES
IN MOST AREAS.

BRIEF CLEARING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST BEFORE A FAST MOVING 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED FASTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM IN HAVING SFC COLD FRONT THRU ERN ND WED MORNING
AND INTO NW MN WED MIDDAY-EARLY AFTN. DID KEEP LOW POPS THRU
DAYTIME WED FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WED
AFTN WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING OVER ERN ND IN COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND
FRONT.

LONG TERM...
GFS MODEL STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO FRI-SUN SYSTEM SO
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN OVERALL PATTERN IS LOWER THAN USUAL. 00Z
CANADIAN HAS LOW DEVELOPING IN KANSAS AND MOVING TO ERN MN/WRN WI
SATURDAY WITH RAIN OVER MN/ERN SD/ERN ND AND A COLD RAIN AT THAT.
00Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES INTO NRN
PLAINS AND A SLOW MOVING AND WET STORM SYSTEM FOR FRI-SUN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
DK


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