FXUS63 KFGF 181003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
403 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

Water vapor lop indicate an upper trough from eastern MT to northern
NE. Upper trough will move across southern Mn and SD today. Light
snow will fall over the far southwestern zones. Up to two inches
possible in Sargent county.

While cold air will over the area today most of the cold advection
will occur east of the area over Ontario and points east. Satellite
indicated thin clouds over the northeast half of the area and
radiational cooling continues here. Lower clouds were moving into
the southeast half of the area and temperatures were higher. Raised
temps in the southwest for today

Radar indicated light snow was moving into the southwest zones. Snow
was not likely reaching the ground on the leading edge.

Will keep wind chill advisory going for the morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

Surface high pressure holds over the FA on Saturday, so despite the
chilly high temperatures, wind speeds will remain on the low side.
This should result in wind chills rising out of advisory criteria
during the day. Saturday night could be a challenge. The next weak
system in the northwest flow aloft arrives for Saturday night into
Sunday morning. The biggest question is how far east this system
spreads. Best chances for light snow (1-2 inches) appear to be from
Minot down through Aberdeen South Dakota. Wind speeds pick up from
the southeast, and with the cold temperatures, cold wind chills may
be a problem again. How far east the clouds and light snow get will
play a role with these wind chills.

Temperatures take a bit of an upswing starting Sunday, but that
trend continues into next week as well. Along with that, a Colorado
Low looks to take shape on Monday, lifting toward the Great Lakes
late Tuesday. Models in fairly poor agreement with all features
regarding this system, so will have to watch later model runs to
what happens with this. There is a potential for some snow over
eastern North Dakota and the northwest quarter of Minnesota and at
least one model shows the potential for gusty north winds. Could be
another weak system on Thursday, but confidence lowers significantly
by then.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected across
eastern ND and northwest MN through the TAF period. Mid level
clouds 6000-8000 FT AGL and flurries/light snow will be possible
at KDVL and KFAR, however confidence wasn't high enough to
introduce mention of snow at this point. Better chances will be
over southeast ND 09-15Z Friday morning.


ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006>008-014>016-

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ001>009-013>017-



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