FXUS63 KFGF 182053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
353 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Light snow and flurries remain possible this evening as a shortwave
trough aloft and warm air advection ahead of a weak sfc boundary
push through the region from north to south. Mid afternoon radar
imagery shows echoes persisting west to east across an area from the
Devils Lake basin toward the Lake of the Wood region. However,
surface observing sites are just beginning to report precipitation
under these echoes, indicating this activity is having trouble
overcoming mid level dry air and lift might be weaker than the
models had previously predicted. Expect any accumulation to be
light, a half inch or less. There are some indications in model
soundings that ice nucleation will be lost along the back edge of
this activity, so there is some potential for brief patchy
drizzle as well.

The latest deterministic model runs suggest overspreading stratus
behind this activity, lingering through much of Tuesday. Despite
this, low level warm air advection and better mixing on Tuesday
will allow highs to reach the lower to mid 30s again.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

A weak cold front Tuesday night will have limited moisture and move
through quickly with only light precipitation forecast at this time.
Temperatures will only dip slightly and will recover on Wednesday in
westerly flow keeping high temperatures during the day above

For Wednesday into Friday...Surface high pressure remains in control
and the upper ridge builds over the area. This will contribute to a
slow warming trend that is anticipated...with temperatures reaching
the low 40s in the south and temperatures approaching 50 in the
forested areas in Minnesota as is typical for this time of year. the
high pressure retreats. After Friday into the weekend...greater
uncertainty exists as models diverge so will have to use a blended
solution. Best case scenario is with the EC which indicates more of
a split flow regime with the northern stream across Ontario and the
southern stream more across the central and southern plains. The GFS
favors more of a robust turn of low pressure to the northeast
bringing better chances for pcpn near the end of the period. With
such low confidence...will have to watch subsequent runs. For
now...will just leave a mention of precipitation. Otherwise...expect
the warming trend to continue.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

For the majority of the afternoon expect VFR conditions for most
of the region. Ceilings lower after 00z tonight to MVFR conditions
from north to south. Overnight tonight ceilings will continue to
drop to IFR conditions across the CWA and will persist until at
least late tomorrow morning. Winds will remain westerly for the
rest of the day today into tomorrow morning. Light snow and
flurries are possible across the CWA this afternoon and evening
but confidence is too low to include at TAF sites at this time.




LONG TERM...Hopkins
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