FXUS63 KFGF 152051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

A look at the latest radar imagery shows several north-south broad
areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms. One area, along much of
the Red River Valley, will continue to propagate generally eastward
bringing periods of showers to MN lakes country through the evening.
Further west, another area of showers and storms has developed along
an inverted surface trough across central ND and propagates slowly
east. This will be the focus for potential severe weather this
afternoon and early this evening across southern ND and northern SD.
Instability and deep layer shear are not impressive but are enough
to combine with strong upper level forcing in close proximity to the
upper level low and an inverted surface trough and a secondary
differential heating boundary near the James River basin to support
a continued severe weather threat in the lower Devil Lake basin and
southeast ND early this evening. Of additional note is a high
nonsupercell tornado parameter in the vicinity of these boundaries
across central ND and Eddy, Nelson, Griggs, and Barnes counties,
indicating strong potential for brief landspout tornadoes to develop
with showers and thunderstorms passing through the region.

Expect rain activity to taper off this evening from west to east as
the aforementioned activity progresses east through the region.
Behind this activity, a brief period of mostly dry weather can be
expected overnight for much of the region. The exception to this is
chances for rain showers lingering north of US Hwy 2, in particular
for the Devils Lake basin in close proximity to the nearly stacked
upper level low eastern SK/western MB overnight. Once again, periods
of rain chances persist through the day Sunday and into Sunday
night. Close proximity of the upper low and cloudy skies will mean
cooler weather persisting with another day of high temperatures only
reaching the 60s on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

As an upper low passes slowly eastward through MB into northern MN
on Monday, the region will remain in an active, wetter, and cooler
than average pattern for the start of the work week. Chances for
periods of rain persist through Sunday night and Monday due to this
active upper level pattern with weak shortwave disturbances aloft.
This upper low weakens and is swept up into a more zonal flow regime
by Tuesday, allowing for surface high pressure to begin to take
hold. Expect a relatively drier period for Monday night through
Tuesday night but cannot rule out rain chances completely as another
trough aloft swings through in this timeframe.

For Wednesday through Friday, warmer, closer to normal temperatures
reemerge and active wetter weather pattern develops as a strongly
forced system progresses into the Northern Plains from the Canadian
Rockies. The deterministic model runs have poor agreement in the
timing and details at this point, so will continue to monitor for
potential impacts.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Expect mainly VFR conditions through today with an easterly winds
and gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon. This exception to this is
MVFR cigs and vsbys associated with scattered showers and TSRA
moving through the region this afternoon and early this evening.
Scattered TSRA primarily just expected along and south of a line
from BAC to FAR to AXN with mainly scattered showers further
north. Models hint at low MVFR to IFR cigs developing late tonight
and early Sunday morning.




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