FXUS63 KFGF 261256

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
756 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

Issued at 755 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

Temperatures have generally increased into the upper 30s where
Frost Advisory was in place and should continue to recover, so the
advisory is going to be allowed to expire. Forecast is on track,
so only minor adjustments were made to hourly trends.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

Surface ridge extends across central ND, with cooler temps in the
lower to mid 30s reported mainly over our far NW CWA currently
covered by frost advisory now through 8AM. There have been several
areas outside of the current frost advisory (mainly in northwest MN)
where clouds briefly cleared early this morning and temps dropped to
30-36, then quickly recovered as additional cloud cover returns. Due
to this recovery areal extension was held off.

A mid/upper level shortwave trough will drop out of northern
Manitoba rounding the western flank of larger scale upper low, and
ahead of this feature and it's associated cold front WAA will return
to our CWA. Dependent on cloud cover we should see highs generally
in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and middle 60s are not out of
question if more opaque cloud cover holds off long enough. Also
depended on daytime mixing will be wind gusts, though there should
still be a strong enough surface gradient ahead of approaching from
to support southwest winds gusting around 30 mph even if we do not
see ideal mixing (40 mph gusts would be possible if we do).

Several rounds of showers associated with positive frontogenesis and
WAA will cut through our CWA. CAMs are showing a strong/consistent
signal for a round of showers from Highway 2 north late this
afternoon thorugh the evening, and a second weaker period of showers
south of Highway 2 overnight. Moderate rainfall amounts will be
possible mainly in far northwest MN. Adjustments were made to
increase PoPs for favored periods.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

12Z Thu - 12Z Sat

Northwest flow remains across the area with short waves moving
through the flow. Colder weather is forecast. Periods of showers are
expected with the short waves. Cold front to move through the area
Thu and bring showers. Another upper level trough and cold front to
move through Fri morning. Lowest temps are expected for Sat morning
and a commensurate freeze potential.

Sat - Tue

Long wave pattern forecasts to deamplify a bit and become more broad
over south central and southwest Canada. Long wave ridge from the
northeast Pacific to AK shifts north of AK. Long wave trough over
central Canada also shifts a little north. Pattern becomes more
zonal with time. GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement through
Sun then diverge thereafter.

Warm advection precip is possible for Sat in the southern valley. An
upper level trough is expected for Sun and again Mon. More warm
advection precip for Mon.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN. Several rounds of showers will track
across the region from late this afternoon thorugh the overnight
period. It is possible that moderate shower activity (if it were
to impact a terminal) could result in drops to MVFR, but
confidence is not high enough to introduce more than VCSH at this
point. Southwest winds will increase by midday with stronger
gusts this afternoon 25-32kt, with gusty winds slowly tapering off
this evening. Strongest winds will tend to be over northeast
North Dakota including KDVL.





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