FXUS63 KFGF 250858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
358 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Convection timing and rainfall amounts continue to be the main
challenges for the period.

Water vapor loop shows a decent lead shortwave moving through
central ND, with some showers and thunderstorms starting to enter
our northwestern counties. The SPC mesoanalysis page has MU CAPE
rapidly diminishing further east, so the CAMs that have the
morning activity slowly weakening as it pushes eastward seem
reasonable. The big question will be how much clearing we get
behind the system and how much we can destabilize. There does seem
to be some clearing across far western ND currently that could at
least bring some breaks in the clouds to our far western counties
later today. South winds and moisture flowing into the region
could keep some more stratus hanging around further east however.
Those areas will stay in the upper 60s and 70s today while the
west could see 80s with less clouds. NAM has some over 2000 J/kg
of surface based CAPE in central ND later this afternoon and
evening, although deep layer bulk shear is not very impressive
until the cold front passes. Still, think that some strong to
severe storms firing just to our west and moving into the Devils
Lake or Sheyenne Basins is not out of the question.

Tonight, the storms will moving east of the Red River as the main
upper trough axis moves into the Dakotas and the surface
trough/cold front pushes east. The system has been looking more
progressive than previously thought, so although some heavier
cells dropping a quick 1-2" of rain are possible, widespread
amounts will be somewhat lower. The upper trough will continue
into MN tomorrow, with the weak front pushing east of us. With
cold mid level temps and at least some heating, think some
scattered showers could redevelop back over our area Monday
afternoon, so will continue to keep chance to likely POPs going.
Temps will be cooler in the upper 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

00Z Tue - 12Z Wed

Upper trough continues to dig over the Northern Plains with colder
air moving in aloft Mon night through Tue night. Upper level jet
moves south of the area. Some instability remains over the area Mon
night and shifts south and east out of the area by Tue night.
Precipitable water falls under an inch this period.

Wed - Sat

Long wave trough over the Northern Plains and central Canada shifts
to eastern Canada and the northeast states through the period. Long
wave ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest. The GFS and the ECMWF
are in good agreement through 84 hours. By Thu, timing issues arise
with the ECMWF the faster solution. Wrap around precip occurs Wed
mainly over the MN side. The threat of precip moves out of the area
after Wed.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

VFR tonight for most areas. MVFR cigs spreading west to east
across the CWA with SHRA/TSRA aft 10Z and through the day, with
IFR cigs west of the valley (DVL) aft sunset. First band of
shower/TS activity will enter western zones (DVL) AOA 10Z and exit
eastern zones (BJI) AOA 00Z. A second round moves into the west
(DVL) late in the aftn. This second round will have stronger TS
activity and heavier rain showers, being a significant risk to
general aviators operating in central/eastern ND. Confident enough
for late aftn and Sun evening TS to include mention in 06Z TAFs.




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