FXUS63 KFGF 172139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
339 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Temps the primary concern over the next 24 hours with clouds the
main factor. The temp curve for the overnight will be non diurnal
as high pressure just south of the FA and clear skies across the
southern valley combined with yesterdays fresh snow will see temps
quickly fall with sundown. Then temps will steady off during the
overnight as mixing increases. To the north across the Devils Lake
basin stratus continues to inch eastward within the mean low
level flow. How far east and how much influence clouds has on
temps will need to be monitored. Areas that see clouds persist
will have warmer low temps than areas that clear out.

Sunday will see increasing clouds with WAA and late afternoon
light snow chances in Devils Lake basin. Temps to warm near 30 in
the south and upper teens north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Sunday night through Monday...Cold, wintry weather continues
through Monday due to persistent northwest flow aloft as an
amplified ridge sits off the West Coast. On Sunday night, chances
for light snow move through with a weak shortwave aloft. With weak
forcing and limited moisture aloft, snow looks to be quite light
and isolated to scattered in nature. 850 mb temperatures in the
teens below zero and a north wind will bring a chilly Monday
morning with wind chills below zero. Temperatures on Monday will
likely peak in the single digits to teens above zero for most of
the forecast area.

Tuesday through Thursday...Another round of light snow or light
wintry mix is possible Tuesday as another weak shortwave pushes
through from Saskatchewan toward the Great Lakes. Warmer weather
begins to build in Tuesday, with temperatures moderating toward
normal values for the remainder of the work week. For Wednesday into
Thanksgiving Day, southerly flow and greater thicknesses build in
with the aforementioned ridge weakening and progressing east through
the Plains. By Thanksgiving Day, high temperatures look to reach
near or above the freezing mark. An early look at the holiday travel
period shows a generally dry forecast for Wednesday and Thursday,
with little to no impacts across the Northern Plains in that time

Friday into the weekend...Good model agreement on a longwave trough
pushing through the middle of the CONUS brings a signal for a more
active, wetter pattern across the Central Plains for next weekend.
However confidence is low in any details at this time, so maintained
low precipitation chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

SKC with the exception of DVL where MVFR CIGs have moved in. Will
continue to watch their eastward progress as model guidance keeps
GFK SKC and trends showing 1500ft deck moving east. Westerly
winds at 10 to 15kts this afternoon and then decreasing this




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