FXUS65 KFGZ 051007
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
305 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BUT WEAK STORM SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...COOL CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK STORM
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
UTAH WILL BRING PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST AZ
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE
MAIN LOW. ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT...A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
A DUSTING OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TUESDAY...BRINGING A
DAY OF FAIR WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL UNDERCUT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND WILL BECOME A CUTOFF
CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN AZ FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT IT WILL MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AZ.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER ARE LIKELY TO RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LARGE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES EXIST REGARDING
SHORTWAVE FEATURES PROPAGATING INTO NORTHERN AZ LATE NEXT
WEEKEND...INDICATING CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF CIGS NEAR 5-7 KFT AGL
WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSJN LINE. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE COMING 24 HRS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC............DJO
AVIATION..........JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
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