FXUS65 KFGZ 192153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
253 PM MST Thu Jul 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
through at least Saturday. The greatest coverage and highest
potential for stronger storms will be over the Mogollon Rim and
Yavapai County where areas of heavy rain could produce localized
flooding. Warmer afternoon temperatures and less storm coverage
may start on Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms developed over the higher
terrain of northern Arizona by late morning. Most storms are
moving slowly to the west this afternoon with some areas receiving
heavy to very heavy rain and hail. Local street flooding and
flowing and washes have also been reported under the stronger

Storms will decrease some after dark tonight...but some storms
will continue well past midnight.

For Friday and Saturday, the subtropical high pressure re-
centers near Four Corners on Friday. This puts northern Arizona
in very light south to southeast flow pattern with rich monsoon
moisture through Saturday. Expect primarily afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms with storms moving very slowly from
south to north. Heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main
storm threats.

From Sunday through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure slowly
moves westward over Arizona. This will decrease the southerly
flow of deep moisture into Arizona. Temperatures will also
increase high temperatures to above average levels.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...NUMRS SHRA/TSRA with MVFR/IFR
conditions and gusty winds through 02Z. VFR conditions outside of
storms. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA after 02Z. Storms will develop again
Friday after 17Z becoming SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA with ISOLD +TSRAGR by
19Z-20Z. Convective activity most wdsprd after 21Z. Strongest
storms will produce localized MVFR/IFR conditions and wind gusts
to 50kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon pattern with scattered to
numerous slow moving thunderstorms will continue through Saturday.
Heavy rain and erratic thunderstorm winds will be the main threats.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally be light.

Sunday through Tuesday...Thunderstorm chances will continue each day
through the weekend into early next week. There is a possibility of
a slight downturn in activity sometime next week with a warming






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