FXUS65 KFGZ 050311
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST THU DEC 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A S/W
TROUGH AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME CLEARING SKIES
WERE ALREADY NOTED ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER AND THIS CLEARING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WERE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THIS S/W TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHWARD. CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION (244 PM)...A DENSE LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE AREA TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT...BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AGAIN
TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CLOUDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH
NOT TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING MUCH AT ALL...SO EXPECTING
ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
WILL BRING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT BEST.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE AFFECTED BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF
THIS LOW. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW TO THE EAST...JUST BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE
CURRENT ECMWF MODEL RUN BRINGS A DEEPER LOW ACROSS THE STATE WITH
MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE GFS HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS THAN THE ECMWF...SO I AM
LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER SCENARIO FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...WE CAN
EXPECT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AT THE
VERY LEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT BKN/OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DB/DDV
AVIATION.......DB

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.



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