FXUS65 KFGZ 060327
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
827 PM MST Fri Jun 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will continue over northeast
Arizona through tonight and early Saturday as a weak low pressure
system crosses Arizona. Dry weather returns by Saturday
afternoon. Strong southwest winds are likely Sunday afternoon
ahead of a dry cold front that should cross into the area Monday
morning. Freezing morning temperatures are probable in the high
country from Monday through Wednesday.
.UPDATE...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over
NE Arizona overnight as low pressure off the coast of Southern
California continues to move toward the area. The threat for
strong winds will diminish overnight as temperatures decrease;
with rain accumulations less than .20" expected. Current forecast
is in good shape, with only minor updates in store at this time.
.PREV DISCUSSION /244 PM MST/...
This afternoons radar loop was showing mainly light echoes, with
the greatest coverage across Apache county. Surface dew point
spreads across the northland range from 50-60 degrees, an
indication of the dry sub cloud layer, and the potential for gusty
outflow winds from the stronger convective cells. The upper low
is moving onshore this afternoon, and the tightening gradients
have brought wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph to western Arizona.
For tonight - the upper low center path looks to be a bit farther
west, now moving through Mohave county and then Page by mid
morning Saturday. We have increased precip chances a few points
across Coconino County, and decreased rainfall amounts across the
Four Corners, now looking at 0.10 to 0.30 inches of rainfall
there. The potential for gusty winds from convective cells will
continue for much of the night.
Saturday - Clearing and drying from southwest to northeast looks
good as the low moves away. The slight chance of showers will
continue Saturday morning near the Four Corners. Southwest winds
to around 40 mph should develop by mid morning across Navajo and
Apache counties. Temps will be on a cooling trend.
Sunday - Model continuity is good showing a second and stronger
low pressure trough to move through the Great Basin on Sunday.
Forecast southwesterly wind gusts for us are down with the latest
runs, now looking like 30-45 mph range Sunday afternoon,
especially for the Kaibab Plateau and areas north of the Mogollon
Rim. These winds are due to the approach of a dry cold front.
Monday - The cold front should be entering northern Arizona early
Monday morning. Mondays high temps are forecast to be from 5 to
10 degrees below normal, and the coolest of the next 7 days. Very
dry air behind the front could bring morning lows that are near
freezing Monday morning to the high country.
From Tuesday through Friday - Dry weather for this period, as we
transitions from light westerly flow Tuesday to ridging once
again by Thursday. Near freezing temps are forecast Tuesday and
Wednesday for areas above 7000 feet, otherwise temps are on a slow
.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Winds will weaken, but remain
locally breezy overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will mainly be
along and northeast of a line from KGCN-KFLG-KPAN. The primary
hazard will be outflow gusts to 45 kts. Storm activity will decrease
from southwest to northeast late tonight, exiting the Four Corners
region by midday Saturday. Expect another round of gusty southwest
winds on Saturday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
.FIRE WEATHER...Shower and thunderstorm activity will persist
through Saturday morning, with the highest chances over northeast
Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible on
Saturday afternoon across Navajo and Apache counties, with a more
widespread threat on Sunday.
Monday through Wednesday...A cooler and much drier air mass will
affect the region. Expect breezy west to northwest winds on Monday,
with weaker winds on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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