FXUS65 KFGZ 230325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
825 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty northeast winds will gradually diminish along
and southwest of higher terrain features through early Wednesday.
Daytime temperatures will warm through Friday. A couple of dry
cold fronts will impact the area on Thursday and again late Friday
into Saturday. The second front could produce another round of
gusty northeast winds and cooler temperatures.


.UPDATE...Quiet weather presides over northern Arizona this
evening under a dry northwesterly flow aloft. A few high cirrus
clouds will pass through with otherwise clear skies. Low
temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees colder than last night.
Locally breezy north/northeast winds will continue, leading to
wind chills in the single digits and teens for most areas
overnight. Current forecast trends are on track.


.PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...It has been a cold and blustery
day across the region with northerly winds gusting 30-40 mph and
daytime temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal. The
strongest winds have been along and southwest of the higher
terrain. Areas along and southwest of the Mogollon Rim will
continue to see gusty conditions continue into the overnight
hours. Elsewhere, expect the winds to decrease this evening.

Wednesday will generally be quiet weather-wise with sunny skies
and lighter winds. High temperatures will be noticeably warmer
than today especially along and south of the Mogollon Rim. High
temperatures across northeast Arizona are a bit more of a question
mark as an inversion could keep temperatures much cooler. This
will continue to be monitored.

For the remainder of the week, a high amplitude ridge will reside
to our west with persistent north-northwest flow. This will bring
a couple of dry cold fronts through the region, the first of which
on Thursday. This looks to mainly impact the Four Corners region
with cooler temperatures and breezy winds. The more significant of
the two fronts looks to move through the region Friday night into
Saturday. This front could bring another round of gusty north-
northeast winds to the entire region and cooler temperatures.
Based on the latest guidance, opted to lower high temperatures
roughly 5 degrees on Saturday and increase wind speeds.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions will persist across
northern Arizona for the next 24 hrs. Winds will be N-NE 5-10G15-20
kts along and south of the Mogollon Rim and south of the high
terrain in Yavapai County through 14Z. Elsewhere, north winds at 3-8
kts. Aviation discussion discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy northerly winds tonight along and south of
the high terrain in Yavapai and southern Coconino Counties. Light
winds are expected Wednesday, before breezy northerly winds return
Thursday. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday and Thursday.

.Friday through Sunday...Dry weather throughout this period. Breezy
north winds are expected Saturday. Temperatures will be above
normal across northern Arizona on Sunday.






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