FXUS65 KFGZ 231602

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
902 AM MST Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather disturbance will approach Arizona
today and Thursday, bringing isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity to much of northern Arizona. The eastern Mogollon Rim
and the White Mountains region should see scattered storm coverage.
High pressure and a drier air mass will move over northern
Arizona for Friday and the weekend with for just a slight chance
of thunderstorms.


Short term forecast is in good shape with no updates planned.


.PREV DISCUSSION /245 AM MST/...A weak low pressure system was
centered just off the central California coast during the morning
hours. For today and Thursday this system will head toward
Arizona. Associated with this movement will be a modest moisture
increase and upward motion/cooling aloft. The net result will be a
better chance of showers and storms with mainly isolated activity
and with precipitation amounts generally of 0.10 inches or less.
The exception will be from the eastern Mogollon Rim into the
White Mountains region where deeper moisture will result in a
good chance for showers and storms.

For Friday and the weekend...The low weakens as high pressure
surges northward across Arizona, Nevada and Utah. A relatively dry
air mass will initially be associated with the high and with
shorter days will make it tough for anything more than a slight
chance for thunderstorms. The exception will be the White
Mountains region of eastern Arizona where moisture will remain
more substantial and storms more numerous.

Monday and early next week...Models continue to show Monsoon
moisture making a comeback, pushed northward by an increase in
thunderstorm activity over northwest Mexico. At this time the best
chances still look to be from the Mogollon Rim southward.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
most of northern Arizona through the 24 hr forecast. Scattered
thunderstorms will form in the afternoon after 18z mainly across
eastern Arizona in southern Navajo and Apache counties with showers
remaining the evening from 04z to around 06z. Local brief VFR and
MVFR condtions are possible during heavier thunderstorms. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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