FXUS65 KFGZ 180437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
937 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure along the southern Arizona
border will bring scattered snow showers to the eastern Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains through Monday. Scattered light rain
showers will be possible in southeastern Yavapai and northern Gila
counties. Drier and warmer conditions will develop Tuesday and
Wednesday, ahead of a strong cold front due Thursday.


.UPDATE...The area of low pressure is center over Nogales this
evening as it slowly moves eastward. Will make minor tweaks to
the forecast to account for the eastward movement of the
showers/cloud cover.


.PREV DISCUSSION /334 PM MST/... Some residual showers will
continue across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White mountains
through Monday as a low pressure system continues to move across
Sonora and into New Mexico. Most of the precipitation has already
ended across the western Mogollon Rim, and Yavapai County, but an
isolated shower or two will still be possible due to the abundant
instability available.

As the system moves off to the east, light winds and zonal flow
will fill in behind the system through early Wednesday.
Temperatures will trend back to 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind speeds will increase through the day
Wednesday ahead of the next weather system that looks to impact
the area Thursday.

By Thursday morning model forecasts are in good agreement with
developing an upper level closed low near the Utah/Arizona border
and driving a cold front through the state. This trajectory
through the intermountain west is not favorable for moisture, but
there may be just enough to see a few showers develop along the
frontal boundary Thursday. Have continued to trend quite cool with
highs only reaching into the 30s and 40s for most areas.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly below average through
next week.

Current model runs are trending further west with another much
colder trough diving south through the western U.S. next weekend.
There is potential for some very cold air to move into the region.
We have kept this period cool and introduced a slight chance for
showers. Stay tuned as the forecast continues to develop.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Look for VFR conditions over most
of northern Arizona for the next 24 hours. The exception, local
MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and snow showers along and south of a
line extending from Payson through Show Low. Otherwise, light winds.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Rain and snow showers along and south of the eastern
Mogollon Rim and over the White Mountains moving out by Monday
evening with dry weather returning to the area. Winds will be light
and variable through Tuesday with temperatures rising to about 5
degrees above normal.

Wednesday through Friday...Wednesday will be dry with temperatures 5
to 10 degrees above normal. Gusty southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph
gusting 35 mph. A cold front moving through on Thursday will bring a
slight chance for showers and will drop temperatures by 10 to 15
degrees. Winds northwest at 15 mph gusting to 25 mph behind the
front. Friday will be cool and dry with light northwesterly winds.






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