FXUS65 KFGZ 190550 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
829 PM MST Mon Mar 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers to persist over the higher terrain
through midnight then diminish. On Tuesday, high pressure will move
across northern Arizona but enough moisture will linger for a slight
chance of showers. Another weather disturbance will cross the area
from Wednesday into Friday delivering cooler temperatures along with
good chances of showers and a few thunderstorms. Unsettled weather
is forecast to continue through the coming weekend.


Have expanded the isolated showers coverage through midnight for
areas north of a line from Chino Valley through Show Low per
current radar trends. While very light precip amounts are
expected, outflow winds gusts to 35 mph may be found near the


.PREV DISCUSSION /311 PM MST/...Light shower activity is ongoing
across the area this afternoon. Showers have mainly been over the
higher terrain, but we also have seen some development across
central/western Yavapai County and north of the Mogollon Rim in
Navajo and Apache counties. No lightning has been detected with
any of these showers, but don't be surprised if a few of the
stronger cells produce a rumble of thunder through early evening.
Convective activity will decrease through the evening with the
loss of daytime heating.

Tuesday will likely be the warmest of the next several days as a
weak ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Expect daytime
temperatures to be around 5-10 degrees above normal. Enough
moisture will linger that a few showers cannot be ruled out across
the higher terrain in the afternoon.

A series of weather disturbances will cross the state from mid-
week onward. The first system will begin impacting the region on
Wednesday and persist through Friday. This system will bring
cooler temperatures, gusty winds at times, and an increased threat
for precipitation. The system initially will have high snow
levels, but as the upper level low crosses the region Wednesday
night into Thursday expect snow levels to lower to between
6,000-7,000 feet. However, precipitation totals don't look overly
impressive and major impacts are not anticipated at this time.
The cooler air aloft, increasing moisture, and daytime heating
from the mid-late March sun will also lead to the chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

Another quick moving system could bring some light precipitation
to the region (mainly Mogollon Rim northward) over the weekend,
but again impacts appear to be minimal at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect mainly VFR conditions with
mostly clear to scattered skies for the forecast period. Light and
variable sfc winds overnight. ISOLD -SHRA, mainly north and east of
the Mogollon Rim, will continue to move NE through 07Z. ISOLD high-
based -tsra/-shra return over areas of high terrain mainly north of
a KFLG-KRQE line after 20Z. Cigs 5-8kft agl in and near any
convection. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warm conditions are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday. Light southwest winds Tuesday will increase Wednesday as
a cold front approaches from the west.

Thursday through Saturday...Low pressure will dominate this period
with cooler temperatures, southwest winds, and a chance for rain and
snow showers each day.






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