FXUS65 KFGZ 232209

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
309 PM MST Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A weak ridge of high pressure building over Arizona
will bring above normal temperatures and lighter winds over the
next few days. Increasing southwest winds are expected Saturday
as another strong area of low pressure moves across California
and Nevada. Weaker winds and warming temperatures are expected
Sunday into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...The warmest weather of the week is on tap over the
next few days as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over
Arizona. Rising heights and sunny skies will result in high
temperatures around 5 to 7 degrees above normal for this time of
year. Typical springtime breezes can be expected again on Thursday
with a slight increase in wind speeds on Friday as flow begins to
increase ahead of our next low pressure system. This system will
move across California and Nevada with wind speeds peaking over
northern Arizona Saturday. Forecasted wind speeds and relative
humidity values indicate a good possibility of critical fire
weather conditions for Saturday. Fire weather products will
likely be needed in the next few days.

A lighter wind regime is expected to resume from late weekend
into early next week aside from some lingering gusty winds across
Navajo and Apache County on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to
warm back to above normal values early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions through the
next 24 hours. SW SFC winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts becoming
light and variable after 02z. SW SFC winds increase again after 18z
Thu to similar speeds as today. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and breezy southwest winds each afternoon along
with high temperatures 5 to 7 degrees above normal. Haines indices
will range from 4 to 6 each afternoon, highest values in the eastern

Saturday through Monday...Temperatures will cool to near normal
values for the weekend. A deep upper low moving eastward into the
Great Basin will bring stronger southwest winds Saturday with
critical fire weather conditions possible. Weaker wind speeds are
expected Sunday into Monday.






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