FXUS65 KFGZ 171055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
355 AM MST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather to persist across northern Arizona through
at least Wednesday. Expect light wind and near normal temperatures
with periods of high clouds moving through the area.


.DISCUSSION...The models bring in a series of short-wave trough
over the next ten days. The first trough passes to the north
Saturday into Sunday with the associated front moving through
northern Arizona Sunday. The second trough undercuts the ridge
over the Western States Tuesday bringing cloudiness, but no
precipitation. From Wednesday on the models diverge and show
little run to run consistency. The few points they agree on is
that (1) three more shortwaves come through the area with (2) timing
of Thursday, Friday night and Monday into Tuesday, and that the
700 mb temps are consistent with these troughs to give snow down
to about 6500ft if any precip occurs. Other than this, on the 00Z
runs, the European and Canadian models predict precip on Thanksgiving
while the GFS in dry, the GFS and Canadian predict precip for
Friday night while the European is dry, and all three give an
indecisive chance for precip Monday into Tuesday, but that is a
long ways off.

What does this tell us? Expect warm temperatures and breezy
westerly afternoon winds over the higher terrain Saturday with the
weak trough passing to the north of the area. The dry cold front
Sunday pushes south through the area bringing northerly breezes
and 5 degrees cooling to the area. The pressure gradients remain
week through mid week giving us generally light easterly breezes
and near normal temperatures. Mornings will be cool with overnight
radiational cooling due to the dry atmosphere. After Wednesday
the weather may become unsettled, but it's hard to put your finger
on when as the models tend to diverge and show little consistency
run to run. All I can tell you is to stay tuned to see what is in
store for next weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect primarily VFR conditions
over the next 24 hours with scattered high clouds. Localized smoke
will cause reduced visibility at KGCN and possibly other local areas
near prescribed burns through 16z Sat. Wind speeds remaining 10 kts
or less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Generally light winds, dry conditions, and
daytime temperatures near normal will continue through Sunday.
Cooling just a bit from the Mogollon Rim northward on Sunday as a
dry cold front brushes Arizona.

Monday through Wednesday...Look for near normal temperatures and dry
conditions to persist. Winds will shift to a northeasterly direction
on Monday behind the cold front then return to a more southwesterly
direction by Wednesday. Winds are expected to remain generally on
the light side.






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