FXUS63 KFSD 182008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
308 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Northwesterly upper-level flow continues over the area, with
temperatures continuing around seasonal normals for the next 24
hours. A shortwave trough will move through overnight into Tuesday,
bringing increased clouds and light precipitation to portions of the
area. Light and spotty precipitation is possible during the day
Tuesday, mainly confined to areas south of I-90, along the Missouri
River corridor in southeastern South Dakota and northwest Iowa.
Rainfall amounts range from a sprinkle to a tenth of an inch. These
light showers exit the area during the evening Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

The large-scale pattern of a ridge over the western U.S. and a
trough over the eastern U.S. continues through the work week. This
will translate to temperatures that slowly increase by a few degrees
each day. High temperatures in the 50s are likely by Friday into the

The dry northwesterly flow pattern lasts through Friday, after which
time, a large cut-off low pressure looks to progress through the
ridge, bringing increased clouds and chances for rainfall. Rainfall
amounts are low confidence at this time, as atmospheric models show
a wide variety of potential scenarios. Overall, the heavier
precipitation looks to stay south of the Sioux Falls area. For
the forecast, have stuck with a consensus blend of model data,
which brings increasing rain chances for Saturday and Sunday. It's
worth noting that overnight temperatures during the weekend will
be above freezing, accelerating snowmelt for areas that still have
a lot of liquid stored in the snow. This will likely mean
continuing flooding issues, as rain on snow with warm air
temperatures and frozen ground will again provide an influx of
water into rivers and streams.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Light south and southwest winds continue through the daytime
hours, with partial high cloud cover. Clouds lower overnight, with
a few showers expected south of I-90 in southeast South Dakota
and around KSUX during the morning hours Tuesday. Very little
accumulation expected, but visibilities could be slightly lower in
falling rain.




SHORT TERM...VandenBoogart
LONG TERM...VandenBoogart
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