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FXUS63 KFSD 290819
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
319 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

Surface high pressure builds into the area today, and it will be a
cooler day as cold air advection continues across the region. Highs
will run in the upper 60s to lower 70s. It may still be a little
breezy east of Interstate 29 earlier in the day with momentum
transfer winds around 15 kts, though winds will begin to come down
in the afternoon.

Clouds will increase tonight out ahead of the next system to affect
the area, and could see a few showers over south central SD toward
Saturday morning as theta e advection lifts into the region. It will
be a cool night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

Models continue to trend southward with the Saturday system as a
shortwave slides from western SD into central NE during the day. The
better upper level forcing related to the upper level jet remains to
our southwest, so the higher rain chances will be confined to the
Missouri river corridor with only a few hundredths of precipitation
expected. Instability is insignificant so did not include any
thunder in the forecast. With clouds and a continuing cold air
advection regime highs will be well below normal for this time of
year - in the mid 60s across the entire area.

Some models are suggesting a possibility of additional shower
activity later on Saturday night into Sunday in a return flow as
high pressure moves off to the east, though it appears to be fairly
insignificant at this point. Any activity would again be in the form
of showers with the lack of instability. Temperatures on Sunday will
be closer to normal - averaging around 70.

The main theme through the at least the middle of next week is much
warmer temperatures as upper level riding builds across the region.
This will play out to highs in the 80s, with a few 90s even possible
by Tuesday. By Wednesday upper level energy moving into the Northern
Plains flattens out the ridge a bit, and will be the lead in to an
increasing convective threat into the end of the week. Even so,
temperatures look to remain above normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

VFR conditions will persist through 06z Sat.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Chapman
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