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FXUS63 KFSD 161144
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
644 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Light winds and low level moisture have allowed the development of
fog on the back edge of low clouds/stratus over southwest and
south central Minnesota. Surface observations and webcams show
visibility dropping as low as a quarter mile in portions of
southwest Minnesota and adjacent counties in eastern SD and
northwest IA. HiRes models including NAM and RAP suggest fog will
continue to expand southward into northwest IA through around
daybreak. Therefore, have issued a dense fog advisory for these
locations until 8 AM CDT.

Relatively dry air aloft filters in today, giving way to a pleasant
Father's Day with temperatures mainly in the 70s. A weak surface
front moves southward into the forecast area this afternoon. Given
weak instability throughout the day, only showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across south central SD.
Precipitation chances increase and spread eastward tonight, as the
the aforementioned front moves south of I-90 and a subtle upper jet
moves over the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The work week starts off with thunderstorm chances as warm air
advects into the region ahead of a frontal boundary. This will
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day and
night. With mostly cloudy skies and periods of showers, below normal
temperatures are expected. Highs will range in the mid 70s.

A vort max/shortwave moves out from the Rockies on Tuesday,
approaching the Missouri River Valley during the morning hours. At
the surface a weak boundary crosses the region, bringing enough
dynamics/forcing for another chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Several disturbances embedded in the zonal flow aloft will continue
to move across the area, bringing chances of precipitation through
the period/upcoming weekend. A better setup for showers and
thunderstorms looks to be Friday into the weekend as models bring a
strong shortwave trough moving south from the Northern
Plains/International Border. However, details on local impacts are
uncertain due to differences in strength and magnitude between
models. Temperature-wise, it will remain slightly below normal
throughout the week with forecast highs mainly in the 70s and
overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

VLIFR visibility in fog has become widespread in central to
eastern portions of the forecast area, including at KFSD. These
conditions are expected to improve after 13Z, with VFR conditions
expected to prevail by 15Z-16Z. Chance of scattered showers/storms
developing mainly in western portions of the area after 19Z, but
confidence too low to include mention at specific terminal sites
at this time.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for SDZ040-056-
062.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ001>003-
012>014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...JH
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