FXUS64 KFWD 050513 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1113 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...
MINOR...MAINLY TIMING ARRIVAL OF FIRST LOW VFR CIGS...THEN MVFR
TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.

MADE A FEW DELAYS ON THE HIGH MVFR CIGS UNTIL 09-10Z AT DFW METRO
TERMINALS...TO 12Z/AFTER AT WACO. WILL RAISE CIGS TO LOW VFR WITH
SLOW WARM UP LATE SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SCATTER OUT TO BKN-OVC MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH OVER S TX.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND RA/TSRA WILL REMAIN S OF N TX WITH NO
AFFECTS ON AIRPORTS.

EXPECT OCNL GUSTY N WINDS 15-20 KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...THEN SETTLING DOWN BELOW 10 KTS FROM THE NW WITH SURFACE
HIGH RIDGING IN AND DECOUPLING SUNDAY EVENING.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW AND STEADY TEMPERATURE DROP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH MOST OF
THE AREA STAYING ABOVE FREEZING. A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD STILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 32. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
REACH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/
THE UPPER LOW PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL REMAIN IN THE
WEST...CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS ENERGY
WILL INTENSIFY INTO A CUT OFF LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY OPENING UP AND MERGING WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE PACIFIC...CUTS OFF...AND DROPS
TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER THIS
EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS BLOW OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WE EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO COVER ABOUT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OVERALL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN LINE WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF A DEEP UPPER LOW EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN SOUTH
TEXAS...BUT WE WILL INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 36 53 34 55 37 / 0 5 5 5 10
WACO, TX 40 53 33 57 35 / 5 10 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 34 52 33 56 37 / 5 5 5 5 10
DENTON, TX 36 52 30 55 33 / 0 5 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 36 53 30 54 33 / 0 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 37 52 36 56 40 / 5 5 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 37 53 33 54 35 / 5 5 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 38 54 34 56 37 / 5 10 5 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 38 52 35 59 37 / 5 10 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 33 51 31 56 34 / 0 5 0 5 10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30


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