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FXUS64 KFWD 160958
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
358 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

Yesterday's cold front is now pushing through the I-10 corridor
into South-Central/Southeast Texas and into the Upper Texas Coast
early this morning. There's quite a nip to the air, as strong low
level cold advection has current temperatures down into the upper
20s-lower 30s in the north and to the 40s across our southern
Central Texas counties. In addition, a stratus field in the wake
of the front was currently surging south along the shallow frontal
inversion into Central Texas as well. With pressure rises easing
up somewhat, north winds 10-15 mph with a few gusts between 20-25
mph at few locales should come down by daybreak this morning.

Look for a mainly cloudy, brisk, and cold start to your Saturday
with temperatures in the mid-upper 20s across the northwest to
lower 40s across eastern parts of Central Texas. Combined with
the continuing brisk north-northeast winds, look for wind chill
readings in the upper teens to mid 20s to start your day northwest
of a line from Stephenville, to DFW, to McKinney and Cooper to
start your day. Make sure to bundle up and wear layers if planning
to be outdoors this morning. Winds will ease up by midday and
early afternoon, as a surface high pressure ridge builds in
quickly from the northeast.

Persistent stratus will likely continue across all but those areas
west of a Breckenridge, to Hamilton, to Killeen line where drier
low level air entrainment should result in at least partial
sunshine today. Once again, a very challenging high temperature
forecast is expected as strong low level warm advection ensues in
the 925mb layer and just above our shallow frontal inversion by
this afternoon. With the shallow frontal inversion mainly grazing
areas west of U.S. 281 in our far western CWA, I expect this will
be the one area that should be able to recover on temperatures
quickly into the 50s and lower 60s. This will be due to those
areas seeing partial sunshine, returning south-southwest winds to
near 10 mph, and better chances of realizing the aformentioned
warm advection at 925mb mixing to the surface. Otherwise, the
stratus field will hang tough across the rest of the CWA with a
slight delay to realizing the warm advection until very late in
the day. As a result, I went colder than guidance blends with
much of the area being hard-pressed to warm beyond the 40s.

Remnants of our very shallow dome of arctic air will prevail
through mid-evening, before increasing south-southwest winds near
10 mph become widespread overnight. Richer surface dew point
temperatures between 45-55 degrees will also return across areas
east of I-35/35E and along/south of I-30 with the potential for
fog formation across these areas as better moisture overruns the
the cold soil temperatures across this portion of our CWA. At
this point we do not expect widespread dense fog across our far
east-southeastern counties overnight in advance of our next cold
front approaching the area from the northwest. However, if wind
speeds were to come down across this area more than forecast, or
even go calm, then at least patchy dense fog may be realized just
before daybreak Sunday. In addition, the residual cloud cover and
low level warm advection east of I-35 will likely result in
steady or even possibly slow-rising temperatures overnight while
colder temperatures with better radiational cooling occur further
to the west. A few sprinkles or a slight chance of light rain may
occur in advance of the cold front in the east as well, but we are
not expecting anything of consequence.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday Onward/

Another cool and wet period is expected to start out the next
week as a deep upper level trough in the west provides a favorable
flow for several days of rain chances, including the chance for
some wintry precipitation Tuesday morning and Tuesday night.
Temperatures start to moderate the second half of the week, but
rain chances linger through the end of the week.

Sunday and Monday…
Southwesterly flow aloft will get established across North and
Central Texas as a deep upper level trough digs into the
Intermountain West. In the meantime, a cold front will have moved
across North and Central Texas, keeping temperatures on the cool
side, albeit dry for Sunday. A freeze is expected by Monday
morning across North Texas with persistent cold air advection
continuing well into the day. Much colder temperatures are
expected by Monday, with highs only reaching the lower 40s across
the Red River and middle 50s across Central Texas. Monday will
remain precipitation-free, but the same can’t be said for Monday
Night.

Winds above 2500 feet will begin to respond to the approaching
longwave trough, as well as an embedded shortwave that will be
racing northeastward across North and Central Texas. Southerly
winds with moist, warm air will ride atop the shallow, cold air
enhancing the lift necessary for the development of precipitation.
While most of the region will see a cold rain and above-freezing
surface temperatures, the one exception will be across the far
northwestern counties where lows are expected to dip to, or
slightly below freezing. With a layer of >32F temperatures between
3500 to 9000 feet above the surface, all precipitation is
expected to fall in the liquid phase. The tricky part will be
areas northwest of a Bowie to Mineral Wells to Cisco line, where
surface temperatures may drop to freezing for a short period of
time early Tuesday morning. Given temperatures will be within a
degree or two of freezing, impacts should remain minimal. Some
light icing may be visible to elevated surfaces such as trees,
traffic signs and cars, but with temperatures so close to
freezing, latent heat released by the freezing of water droplets
will likely keep the road surfaces free of ice.

Tuesday and Wednesday…
As temperatures rise above freezing Tuesday, the threat for
freezing rain will remain well north and northwest of our area.
Highs, unfortunately, will remain quite cold with upper 30s in the
northwest and upper 40s in the south. Persistent isentropic
ascent will keep rain for most of the area during the day on
Tuesday. No significant rainfall is expected, with rain amounts
generally below .4” across East Texas and lesser amounts to the
west.

The mischievous winter weather sneaks back into the forecast as
precipitation comes to an end Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. The column of air will gradually cool overnight, and
areas northwest of a Bowie to Mineral Wells to Comanche line may
see a brief transition from rain to a rain/snow/sleet mix. Given
moisture content will be waning by this time period, any frozen
precipitation will be light in nature, preventing impacts from
arising.

Strong northward theta-e advection will once again develop
Wednesday afternoon and night, keeping a mention of precipitation
across Central Texas. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper
30s, limiting any threat for wintry precipitation.

Thursday through Saturday…
Continued southwesterly flow aloft will continue to provide a
track for a train of mid-level disturbances to come within close
proximity of North and Central Texas, Thursday will be no
exception. This time, a stout disturbance will take a more
southerly track than it’s predecessors. As the disturbance
approaches, forcing for ascent will increase across the region
leading to the development of showers area wide. A rumble or two
can’t be ruled out across the southeastern tier of counties
where 200-300 J/Kg of instability will be present.

Rain chances will persist into Saturday as the parent shortwave
finally begins to move eastward, overspreading ample lift across
the area. Instability will once again increase Saturday afternoon
mainly across Central and East Texas, enhancing the development of
isolated thunderstorms within the precipitation shield. Persistent
southerly flow will help temperatures gradually moderate Thursday
through Saturday. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the 60s
with lows in the 40s to around 50.

Hernandez

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1142 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019/
/6Z TAFS/

Low clouds continue to spread southward tonight with MVFR cigs now
spreading through the Metroplex. These should continue into
Saturday morning with north winds around 15 kt diminishing to
around 5 kt by sunrise. Winds will gradually veer around to the
east then southeast by afternoon with MVFR cigs scattering out
from west to east. Latest thinking is that the clouds will linger
around a while longer, but we'll still show some scattering by
late afternoon. Southerly flow becomes established Saturday night
with an additional round of MVFR cigs ahead of another cold front
early Sunday morning. Outside of some drizzle mainly to the east
of the major airports Saturday and Saturday evening, most areas
should stay precipitation free.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 42 56 34 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 49 44 61 39 54 / 0 0 5 0 0
Paris 45 41 55 32 47 / 0 20 5 0 0
Denton 45 39 55 30 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 44 39 55 32 47 / 0 0 5 0 0
Dallas 47 44 57 35 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 47 44 58 35 51 / 0 0 5 0 5
Corsicana 48 46 59 38 52 / 0 5 5 0 5
Temple 53 46 64 40 56 / 0 0 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 53 40 56 30 45 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08/05
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