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FXUS64 KFWD 251114 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
614 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with lower
wind speeds today. However, wind speeds will increase on Sunday
with a chance for storms at the airports late Sunday afternoon
through Sunday evening.

Breezy northwest winds overnight are diminishing in speed and
will prevail at 8-12 kts for most of the day with slightly higher
gusts this morning. The winds will then become light and variable
this evening. The winds will return to a south direction
overnight and increase to 15-20 kts late Sunday morning. Low
clouds wrapping around an upper level system in eastern Oklahoma
are expected to remain north of the DFW airports this morning, and
high clouds will start to spill across the region tonight. The
increasing winds on Sunday will transport better moisture into the
region which may result in MVFR cigs, but this potential is
beyond the valid TAF period and the overall coverage is uncertain
at this time.

Looking ahead to Sunday afternoon and night, isolated to scattered
storms may develop near a dryline west of the Metroplex airports.
These storms could possibly be severe affecting the airports in
the evening hours. The chance for storms in the Waco area is
lower.

JLDunn

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/
A departing linear MCS is currently impacting areas as far east as
the Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are still swirling in
Oklahoma near the center of a cyclone, but North and Central Texas
are now fully ensconced in the system's downglide. Postfrontal
winds are ushering in a late season chill, and for much of the
region, these will be the coolest daytime temperatures in more
than a week. But with full sunshine today, temperatures will still
reach or exceed normal highs though steady northwest winds might
suggest otherwise.

With progressive flow aloft, the modified mP air mass will quickly
move east of the area, and southerly surface winds will be in
place by daybreak Sunday morning. At this time the next shortwave
will be emerging from the Rockies. It will deepen above the High
Plains during the day Sunday, pulling Gulf moisture north into
North and Central Texas. These gusty south winds will result in a
rapid recovery of dew points, but the 60F isodrosotherm may take
much of the day to approach the Red River. The result will be
decent surface-based instability, but a moisture depth that may be
insufficient for deep convection. A dryline will make some
progress eastward during the day Sunday, but with paltry 700mb
flow in its vicinity far separated from the parent cyclone, it may
be late in the day before it invades our western zones. This is
indicative of a dryline with little forcing for ascent on the
humid side. Much of the short-range guidance is uninclined to
make the dryline a focus for afternoon convective activity though
some synoptic guidance sees the instability adequate for
initiation. Afternoon activity may be limited to isolated cells
deeper into the humid air where the cap may be able to be overcome
late in the day. Hodographs will favor supercells with all modes
of severe weather.

The main upper forcing will arrive during the evening hours
Sunday, which may be the most likely window for strong/severe
storms within North Texas. It still appears that the most
favorable environment will be north of the Red River, but as a
low-level jet ensues, nocturnal initiation may occur in areas
mainly east of I-35 and north of I-20. The instability will be on
the wane when the surface boundary is finally synoptically forced
through the region late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Drier weather will arrive on Monday, but return flow will surge
moisture back into the region on Tuesday. A powerful storm system
will be swinging out of the Desert Southwest, and West Texas may
see significant dryline convection Tuesday afternoon. Some of this
activity may reach our western zones as early as Tuesday evening.
As forcing for ascent spreads east across North and Central Texas
Tuesday night into Wednesday, widespread showers and thunderstorms
will occur. With widespread morning activity, the afternoon severe
potential may be east of our area on Wednesday, making this
primarily a heavy rain event. While too early to highlight
specific amounts, this is looking more and more likely to be the
most widespread significant rain event in many weeks.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 55 83 59 80 / 0 0 30 30 0
Waco 75 51 84 60 81 / 0 0 10 20 0
Paris 69 50 82 59 76 / 0 0 20 50 10
Denton 71 50 82 57 77 / 0 0 30 30 0
McKinney 71 49 82 58 77 / 0 0 30 40 0
Dallas 73 55 85 60 80 / 0 0 30 30 0
Terrell 72 51 83 59 78 / 0 0 20 30 5
Corsicana 72 53 84 60 79 / 0 0 20 20 5
Temple 75 53 84 60 82 / 0 0 10 10 0
Mineral Wells 73 51 85 54 80 / 0 0 20 10 0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/25
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