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FXUS64 KFWD 082326
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
626 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

Other than a few weak convective attempts west of the Metroplex,
it's a quiet and hot afternoon across North and Central Texas.
Surface analysis shows a vast area of hot and humid air,
stretching from the Gulf of Mexico all the way to the Northern
Plains. Dewpoints have reached into the 70s as far north as
Minneapolis, MN. Temperatures in our region remain in the low to
mid 90s, but with the humidity, heat index values are in the
100-105 F range. Overnight lows will drop into the 70s, but
dewpoints in the low 70s will make for a muggy night.

Thursday looks to be hot and dry, with rain chances near zero for
the entirety of our CWA. Highs will climb into the upper 90s, with
some spots in our northwestern counties likely to exceed 100 F.
This will be the first in what appears to be a long stretch of hot
and rain-free days ahead. A Heat Advisory has been issued for
parts of the area, beginning Thursday afternoon. 76 days until
Fall Equinox, not as if anyone is counting.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/
/Friday through Next Week/

The main theme in the long term forecast period will be the hot
conditions. Dangerous heat is possible by the end of the weekend
as heat index values may climb above 110 degrees in some
locations. Otherwise, rain/storm-free conditions are anticipated,
though there could be a caveat for parts of East Texas on Sunday.

Mid-level ridging will be continue to build across the region with
the center of what may be a nearly 600 decameter ridge parking
itself across eastern New Mexico. While the steering flow aloft
would suggest that any nocturnal complexes across the Central
Plains could make a run at our area, the mid-levels are quite
inhospitable for MCS maintenance. As such, we may see just a few
high clouds, but all-in-all, a rain-free forecast is advertised
for the extended. The combination of high temperatures in excess
of 90s, coupled with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s (some spots
even higher thanks to recent rainfall) will result in heat
advisory criteria apparent temperatures across most of the area on
Friday. I went ahead and added most of our Central Texas and
Brazos Valley counties on Friday where greater warmth will couple
with the moist airmass to yield heat index values in the 105 to
109 degree range. Across some of the higher terrain of western
Central Texas and the Big Country, slightly deeper mixing may
occur and keep dewpoint temperatures low enough such that heat
index values remain closer to 103 degrees. As such, I'll omit
Comanche, Mills and Lampasas counties from the current advisory.
We'll revisit this a little later tonight and made adjustments if
necessary, however.

The hot conditions will continue on Saturday and it is during this
time where the most dangerous heat conditions are forecast. Some
of the raw model guidance is quite bullish with actual air
temperatures greater than 105 degrees. It's quite likely that
these models are overly exuberant with their daytime mixing and so
I've undercut these values by a few degrees. The high dewpoints
will foster heat index values slowly inching toward 110 degrees
across most areas, except across the higher terrain of the Big
Country.

While the heat advisory only continues through Saturday evening
(mainly for collaboration purposes), Sunday will likely shape up
to be the hottest day of the year thus far. We will need to
monitor what could be a slightly better threat for denser upper
level clouds to spill southward into our area on Sunday morning,
but at this time, the potential for this looks low. Back to the
heat...record high temperatures may be approached at D/FW and
Waco as the low level wind field is expected to veer a bit more
than the previous days. With an added downslope component to the
wind, compressional warming (along with drying) may help to nudge
actual air temperatures closer to 105 degrees. Dewpoints will be
lower for areas west of U.S. HWY 281 and this could prompt some
minor fire weather concerns. Elsewhere, it'll remain quite humid
and heat index values of over 110 degrees are currently forecast.
This type of heat is exceptionally dangerous and heat exhaustion
and/or heat stroke may set in a little quicker than normal for
those exposed to the heat for prolonged periods of time. Please
continue to exercise your heat safety tips. Most importantly,
drink plenty of water, take plenty of breaks if outdoors and NEVER
leave pets or children in a vehicle.

The hot conditions will continue into next week across the area.
Fortunately, it appears that we will get a bit more in the way of
drier air at the surface across our area. So while the thermometer
may still climb above the century mark, the lower humidity will
mean slightly lower (though still miserable) heat index values.

Bain

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR and south flow prevail across the region. The only cloud cover
to speak of is a few diurnally-driven Cu around FL045 that should
dissipate within a few hours after sunset. Cloud cover will
increase from south to north around sunrise, with some brief MVFR
possible at KACT. Expect diurnal Cu to develop once again after
18Z around FL050.

Godwin

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 98 78 98 80 / 20 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 97 76 98 77 / 5 0 0 0 0
Paris 76 94 76 94 76 / 20 0 0 0 0
Denton 78 98 78 98 77 / 20 0 0 0 0
McKinney 78 97 77 97 78 / 20 0 0 0 0
Dallas 79 98 78 98 80 / 20 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 95 75 96 77 / 10 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 77 94 76 95 77 / 5 0 0 0 0
Temple 76 98 75 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 76 99 75 99 76 / 20 0 0 0 0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-131>135-145-146.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ129-
130-143-144-147-148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$

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