FXUS65 KGGW 250926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
326 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Mon...

Upper trof currently along the west coast will slide east across
the Rockies through the weekend. Most of the energy associated
with the trof will pass to the south and north of Montana
resulting in generally dry and warm conditions.

Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trof is spreading moisture
northward into Montana this morning. This cloud cover is keeping
fog from forming in the sodden Big Muddy floodplain. Cold front
moves through eastern Montana later this morning, and enough cold
air advection and pressure gradient to result in some gusty winds

Front stalls out near the North Dakota border later today with
cyclogenesis occuring to the south. With moisture streaming north
along this boundary, could see some showers develop over the
southeast zones late this afternoon and linger into tonight.

Upper trof moves across the state on Sunday bringing high pressure
into eastern Montana and pushing showers out. Slight upper ridge
develops Sunday night with next trof pushing across the west
coast. Moisture returns to the region on Monday with a few showers
possibly developing by late in the day as another front moves away
from the Front Range. Ebert

.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...

The extended period begins Monday with a short-wave disturbance
moving through the local region, immediately followed by another
short-wave for Tuesday. Models have been bouncing around with
these waves, with varying timing and QPF amounts. So will continue
with a broad brush approach. Another wave follows Tuesday night
and Wednesday before a ridge moves in. Temperature will be warm
enough for mostly rain, but do not expect enough to create new
flooding problems.

The next trough coming into the Pac-NW for Thursday is bigger and
with more moisture. The trough splits with a closed off low
forming over the Great Basin. The result of this is the trough
ejecting moisture north into Eastern Montana. There could be much
more QPF with this storm system.

Throughout the period, temperatures are expected to remain
slightly above normal. As such, at night and early mornings there
can be periods of snow or snow mixed with rain.



VFR and dry.

The upper trough with mid-level clouds have moved in this morning.
An embedded disturbance in the southwest upper flow moves
northeast through Saskatchewan. An associated closed surface low
there will cause our surface winds to back around to the west this
morning, then northwesterly during the afternoon. Associated
moisture splits around our area. Therefore expect broken mid-
level clouds.

Southeast winds of 10-20kt will diminish to 10kt or less before
sunrise. Then afternoon winds will become northwesterly at
20-25kt, then diminish after sunset.






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