FXUS65 KGGW 272016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
216 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sat...

Synoptic Setup: A large trough sets over the Pacific Northwest
running from northern Utah through southern Idaho and Washington.
A weak ridge axis runs through the western Dakotas and far
northeast Montana. At the surface an inverted trough has set up
just off the front range and is providing a focal point for rain
showers across central parts of the state.

Today through Friday: with positioning of the inverted trough to
the west and a meso ridge to the east radar echos are reaching
about the Phillips/Valley County border before dying. With no
movement of the large scale this trend is expected to continue
with clearing each day east of Glasgow and Jordan and chances for
scattered rain showers to the west. GAH

Friday Night through Saturday: A quick-moving disturbance will
make its way through northeast Montana later in the day on
Saturday and bring some chances for light rain mainly to the
western and northern areas. This remains consistent with the
overall active pattern impacting the region, with periodic
precipitation chances every day or two. Bigelbach

.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

The forecast is in good shape. The narrative as it pertains to the
pattern in the long term, and therefore the grids as a reflection
of that narrative, from the morning package is still relevant and
thus no major changes to the forecast were necessary this
afternoon. Bigelbach

Upper-level model weather pattern data suggest that the extended
forecast period shows a subtle shift to a more progressive and
warmer period of weather. The disturbances that ride down the
Canadian Rockies will bring off and on chances of rain showers to
the region, mainly Sunday night through Tuesday night.

The model consensus for precip timing and placement are rough at
best and are reflected in the forecast grids in a broad-brushed
kind of way, showing a generally less than average forecast
confidence. The scattered nature of these spring-time showers will
likely result in sporadic precipitation realized at any given
location across NE Montana. No significant storms on the horizon
for our area and gradually warming temperatures will make for a
comfortable start to the month of May.

As is usually the case, the best model consensus begins to form
around higher confidence toward the closer to current time.





SYNOPSIS: Upper trough extending into central Montana will keep
clouds and shower chances to the west of KGGW through the cycle
with clearing to the east and at the other terminals.

WIND: From the east-southeast 10-15 kts, strongest at KGGW.






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