FXUS63 KGID 190950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
450 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Upper flow becomes more amplified as a synoptic scale trough digs
over the Great Basin. A stalled weak surface front bisects our
CWS as the expected convection over eastern Nebraska continues to
shift south. This convection still looks like it will remain
mainly east of our CWA, but I did put a slight chance in our east
this morning to hedge against any creepers into our CWA.

Still looks like some convection could occur west of the CWA this
afternoon as peak heating occurs this afternoon. Some of this
could find its way into our neck of the woods, especially west. If
this occurs, there could be enough support for a couple severe

After these storms die off after peak heating, I'm not expecting
much if any activity for the rest of the night as there is not
much to support it.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

As more energy is ejected from the base of the the trough to the
west, we will have another shot at some storms, with the
possibility of a few severe thunderstorms as well, especially
Friday afternoon into the night, and with greater chances
northwest and north of the tri-cities.

Saturday morning will be another relative low until more storms
erupt by Saturday, supported by a developing low-level jet. Areas
in the south half of the CWA stand the best chance for storms,
which could be severe.

Drier air should work in by Sunday and beyond, with temperatures
and dew points returning to what is more typical of this time of
the year in September. We also break out a couple more potential
dry periods in this forecast, mainly Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon, and for Tuesday night and Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Biggest issue looks like it is the weak LLWS between about 08Z and
10Z in the 1K to 2K foot level. Wind speed at this level will be
near 30KT from the southwest and not quite strong to warrant
mentioning in this forecast. However, this will be monitored
closely if any changes are warranted. There also could be some
IFR clouds early this morning as well, but not expecting a ceiling
at this time. We also could get some high based thunderstorms for
Thursday afternoon as well, with the marginal risk of a severe




SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
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