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FXUS63 KGID 100923 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
423 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Surface high pressure is over eastern Nebraska early today
allowing for some good radiational cooling under clear skies.
The entire forecast area is essentially sub 28 degrees with York
and Ord in the upper teens. Winds are already turning to the south
in the far western forecast area and temperatures have been a
little slower to fall.

Southerly winds will be on the increase today, especially after
10 AM, as the the high pressure moves into the western Missouri by
late afternoon. Wind speeds won't be like yesterday but solid
nonetheless with gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range for most areas
after the noon hour. Though the day will start sunny, a deck of
mid clouds is expected to form/slide in from the west/southwest
and migrate east across much of the forecast area. That will keep
temperatures done a bit until it passes more of the region by late
this afternoon. Highs today will be near normal for April 10th
and range form 60 to 65 degrees give or take.

After a mainly clear evening, mid clouds may again be on the
increase overnight as warm advection with a weak mid level wave
slip across they area. For now have kept the forecast dry most
areas and only a small chance of measurable precipitation for
some spots east of Highway 281. Rain amounts would be very light
in the trace to a 0.01" realm. Opted for just rain showers now
but steep mid-level lapse suggest a late night strike and rumble
of thunder could occur, but likely very sparse. Low temperatures
will be much warmer compared to early this morning.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Lots of stuff going on this period, especially in the first 36
hours. Key points are are marginal severe storm risk late Saturday
afternoon/evening, followed by well advertised blast of cold air
for Easter Sunday. Look for rain to precede the coldest air, but
accumulating snow is a significant player Sunday as strong winds
blow.

Saturday (prior to evening) is actually a decent to nice day for
most of the forecast area. Winds through early afternoon will
be fairly light more areas with a weak front draped across the
area. South of the front, temperatures will climb into the 70s
with 60s near the front and upper 50s to north. Most of the day
is dry, but toward evening, isolated thunderstorms are possible
along the sinking boundary as it interacts with deeper moisture
along and south of U.S. Highway 36 in north central Kansas. SPC
marginal risk is reasonable given instability parameters. There
is always a question of moisture availability and that will be
important determinant to thunderstorm formation and intensity.
An isolated severe storm is on the docket right now with hail
the main hazard most likely. Its possible some more elevated
storms could form further north later in the evening as well.

Look for a stronger north/northeast winds to develop Saturday
evening as surface low pressure starts to take shape in southwest
Kansas by the overnight hours. The net result is a strong cold
front passing through between midnight until just after sunrise.
Sharply colder air, strong north winds and snow or rain changing
to snow is likely most areas by dawn Sunday. Temperatures will be
dropping quickly and precipitation should go from rain to snow
after a brief period of a mixture of the two. This is a solid
winter event as snow accumulation is increasingly likely in the
area given some snow will fall prior to dawn Sunday and
temperatures will go nowhere if not fall all day and stay near or
below freezing. This will be a very winter likely Easter Sunday
with wind gusts up to 50 mph possible Sunday with the wet snow for
most of the forecast area. Currently looking for greatest snow
amounts north of Interstate 80 (2-4" there) with lesser amounts to
the south. A major concern will be visibility Sunday morning,
which appears to be with the potential for heavier snow at times.
Teamed with the wind, visibilities could be quite low. The EC has
shown some trend to a bit further north and will continue to
watch for track trends. No Winter Storm Watch at this point but
later shifts may find the need given the potential snow/wind
combination.

Though the wind lasts most of the day Sunday, the precipitation
will quickly taper off in the afternoon and end by evening. As
most already know, well below normal temperatures are forecast of
most of next week, especially through Wednesday night. However,
don't be surprised if the Day 7 high temperature is revised down
with time. We remain in the cold northwest flow all week.
Northwest flow is generally dry, and that is the case for most
areas, but northwest flow can also bring weak systems capable of
light precipitation, and that is also the case late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

VFR conditions are forecast for the entire aviation period with
no visibility restrictions. A deck of mid-clouds will form by
mid-morning and slide from west to east across the Kearney and
Grand Island area through mid-afternoon. Light winds in the short
run will give way to an increasing south breeze gusting over 20kts
this afternoon. The gustiness will taper off by early evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Though solidly gusting over 20 mph by afternoon, overall wind
speeds will be much less today. However, relative humidities will
also be a little higher today but still bottom out in the 20-30%
range in the afternoon. Though not Red Flag levels, near critical
conditions will be noted this afternoon. The much cooler weather
ahead and an increasing likelihood for 0.25 to 0.50" of moisture
this weekend will dampen the fire weather issues for much of next
week.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
LONG TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
FIRE WEATHER...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
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