FXUS63 KGID 171135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

The primary concern in the second half of the work week will be
the heat! An Excessive Heat Warning was issued yesterday afternoon
and I do not plan on making any changes to the headline.

Today and Thursday look to be the worst two days, with highest
dewpoint temperatures and thus oppressive heat. Didn't adjust
temperatures a great deal across the area, but followed some of
the higher resolution guidance for dewpoint temperatures. Liked
this guidance as it mixed out dewpoints as winds become
southwesterly today near the front in southwest sections this
afternoon. In addition to this, it kept the higher dewpoints in
central Nebraska and along and east of 281. The combination of the
low to mid-70 dew points and the temperatures give most locations
heat index values over 105 and some along the Highway 81 corridor
approaching 110. By tomorrow, little changes and heat index
values will be widespread between 105 and 110.

The Excessive Heat Warning extends into Friday, and while it
doesn't look quite as bad(hot) at this time, this could change as
Friday nears.

A front approaches the area Friday which should help keep Saturday
from joining the Heat Warning group.

Today looks like the best chance for thunderstorms with Thursday
and Friday dry. A front will approach the area from the west this
afternoon. This front will be aided by a weak upper disturbance.
There is abundant instability and shear increases through the
evening hours. This along with the modest upper support and low
level convergence along the front will help to fire thunderstorms.
Hail to quarters and winds to 60 are the primary threats.

Model guidance brings a front from the north Friday
afternoon/evening, but at this time it looks to be dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Saturday brings a change to the upper pattern and a break from the
heat! While Saturday itself looks to remain hot, it looks less so
than the previous 3 days as the front approaches from the north.
Most of the guidance has it coming through Saturday
evening/overnight, so the break in heat is not really felt until
Sunday for most.

Thunderstorms look possible with this frontal passage Saturday
evening and overnight. Thunderstorms look possible again along
and north of the front as it moves southward for Sunday and Sunday
night, but much of that activity could be in southern Kansas and
may miss a majority of the area. Something to watch and this
period is the next best chance for precipitation.

With this pattern change, a trough will deepen in the Great Lakes
region while the upper ridge retrogrades to the intermountain
west with the Central Plains under northwest flow. The end of the
weekend and beginning of the work week will be much cooler with
highs in the 80s. While the start of the work week looks to
overall be dry, we will be in northwest flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

VFR conditions expected to persist. There is a chance for
thunderstorms to develop along a front late this afternoon and
evening. Both terminals have a chance for thunderstorms and have
included VCTS just before 00z at both terminals based on the
timing of the higher resolution guidance. South to southwesterly
winds will be breezy this afternoon and additionally as storms
move through, winds could be gusty.


NE...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT
Friday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT
Friday for KSZ005>007-017>019.



SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright
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