FXUS63 KGID 162142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
342 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

An area of surface high pressure will track across the region this
evening and tonight resulting in very light to even at times calm
winds under mostly clear skies. Temperatures will quickly cool
tonight after sunset with good radiational cooling given the light
winds and clear skies. There was some discussion about adding
river valley fog to the forecast, but most forecast models keep
us fog free so will continue to keep fog out of the forecast for

The area of high pressure will track east of the region on
Monday allowing for return southerly flow and high temperatures
that should be at least as warm as we were today if not a few
degrees warmer. Skies will continue to be clear to mostly clear.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

The overall pattern is much warmer than normal and most likely
dry right into next weekend.

Monday night will not be as cool given the southerly winds and
increasing clouds associated with an approaching shortwave trough.
Lows late Monday night/early Tuesday morning may only fall to
right around the freezing mark, which would be well above normal.

Tuesday...A weak upper trough will track across the plains. It's
an open wave trough and most forecast models track it through with
no precipitation for our region. Temperatures might be a few
degrees cooler with more clouds, which could hold highs down in
the mid to upper 40s.

Wednesday...Another shortwave clipper system will quickly track
in from the northwest and send a cool front through the region,
which will really be more of a wind shift boundary and not have
much impact on temperatures with highs again in the mid to upper
40s. However, there is a very slight chance of a rain shower with
this trough and cool front. Have elected to leave the forecast
dry for now given level of uncertainty in timing and location of
any light precipitation chance.

Thursday through Sunday...The pattern remains unchanged. It is a
warm, dry, and progressive pattern with quick moving weak
shortwaves that have little to no precipitation associated with
them. We might start to see a cooling trend by the weekend, but
currently forecast highs are still above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected with mainly clear skies, just the
outside chance of a few high clouds mainly Monday morning. A light
north northwest wind today will become calm to light and variable
tonight as surface high pressure moves in. A light southerly wind
is then expected for Monday morning as the surface high slides
east of the region.




LONG TERM...Wesely
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