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FXUS63 KGID 150739
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
239 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

The weather is quiet today in the wake of the snow/winter weather
Sunday.

Temps are dropping quickly during pre-dawn hours in the cold
airmass as skies gradually clear from west to east. Early morning
temperatures so far ranged from the upper 20s in our western zones
to the 32 degrees in our far east where clouds currently remain.
Farther to the west, in the Nebraska Panhandle, current temps are
in the single digits and teens. Our southern and eastern areas
which had yet to experience a freeze this season have done so now,
and freeze warning remains in effect until 10 AM. After this
morning, freeze warnings will no longer be issued the remainder
of this season. Please see the climate section below for
information on records.

Today will be the transition day between the markedly cold air
Sunday and a more noticeable warmup which will take place by the
middle of the week. Heights rise across our region today behind
the exiting upper trough responsible for the cold/snow Sunday.
Even with the cold start today, temperatures will be on the
upswing aided by good insolation and a downslope wind component.
Models have trended a little warmer than previous runs, with most
areas expected to reach the mid/upper 40s for highs, but will
hold readings down a few degrees in locations which saw several
inches of snow Sunday. With temps still expected to rise well
above freezing today, snow which fell Sunday will melt quickly.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

The extended forecast remains dry with mild Fall temperatures
(although still shy of seasonal normals).

The airmass continues to warm on Tuesday in a split flow regime with
northwest flow for our area, and to the west low pressure will
cutoff in the desert southwest while upper ridging builds into
the Pacific northwest. H85 temps rise a solid 7C from today to
Tuesday and temps will be noticeably warmer for highs, right
around the 60 degree mark. Slightly cooler air associated with the
thermal trough to the east backs into our eastern zones briefly
on Wednesday, just cooling temps by a couple of degrees.

The eastern trough departs toward New England Wednesday night with
shortwave ridging expanding north onto the plains ahead of the
closed southwest upper low lifting toward the Central Rockies.
Flow across our region transitions southwest ahead of the filling
western trough. Models hint at the potential for a sprinkle/brief
shower in our southern zones Thursday aftn/eve ahead of the
approaching wave, but confidence is not high to include precip
chances just yet. A piece of the western trough is expected to
cross the plains as an open wave Friday with the pattern
transitioning to northwest flow heading into the weekend. Overall
the weather is looking fairly mild with little if any precip in
the models for at least a week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Cloud cover
will gradually diminish during the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

As we continue our well-anticipated blast of early-season cold for
a short time longer, there remain a few daily records that COULD be
threatened at both Grand Island and Hastings (our two primary long-
term climate data sites). Here are the details in chronological
order, including a glance back at Sunday's new snow records...

SUNDAY (Oct. 14):
- Snowfall:
New records were set:
...Grand Island: 1.5 (old record 0.5 in 1966)
...Hastings: 1.1 (old record Trace in 1966)
In addition, this was the 5th-earliest snow of 1"-or-greater on
record at Grand Island, and 4th-earliest on Hastings (please refer
to our infographic for further details).

TODAY (Oct. 15):
- Cold low temperature:
...Grand Island...record 24 in 1943...current forecast 23
...Hastings...record 25 in 1974/1952...current forecast 23

- Cold high temperature:
...Grand Island...record 43 in 1969...current forecast 46
...Hastings: record 40 in 1925...current forecast 44

TUESDAY (Oct. 16):
- Cold low temperatures:
...Grand Island: Record 22 in 1948...current forecast 31
...Hastings: Record 28 in 1976/1966/1943...current forecast 30

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ049-064-077-
087.

KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Fay
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch
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