FXUS63 KGID 180506

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1106 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Short term should be relatively quiet. Some cumulus around giving
us some flurries this afternoon, but should wane once sunset hits,
save for some stragglers this evening in the north that might hang
on longer due to the influence of the final spoke of energy
rounding the northern Plains low.

Went a tad higher than guidance for lows tonight due to wind
speeds staying up a bit compared to last night. Wind should
diminish this evening, however near sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Main focus for long term is yet another wave coming out of the
rockies. Much of our precipitation will come when isentropic lift
ensues mostly on Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of the main

We do have a loss of saturation in mid-levels in our south during
the day on Tuesday, but there is quite a deep dendritic layer
above the dry mid-layer, and any saturated layer in the lowest
levels stays below 850 mb, making this scenario unlikely to
produce freezing drizzle. Three to four inches continues to look
reasonable for this quick-hitting system.

Lowered temps for Saturday post-cold front and we will continue
our long streak of below normal temps through the entire forecast.
More chances of snow remain in outer periods as more fast-moving
waves move by in a rather persistent pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

VFR is forecast for most of the period as the winds turn easterly
expect some MVFR ceilings to move in. A few flurries could be seen




SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
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