FXUS63 KGID 251112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
612 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

An upper low pressure system in eastern Oklahoma early this
morning will lift northeast into Missouri today. Wraparound rain
showers on the back side of this system will linger across
portions of eastern zones during the morning before ending west
to east as the upper system departs. Low cloud cover remains
prevalent and in weak lift we are also seeing a little drizzle at
times. Again, expect the light precipitation to wind down today
with a fair amount of low clouds remaining through the day. Our
western zones are most favorable for receiving sunshine today
which will help temperatures to recover into the 50s for highs,
whereas farther east high temperatures will average in the 40s
under the clouds.

Tonight heights rise aloft in shortwave ridging aloft in between
systems. Stratus advects west again along the surface ridge axis and
the potential exists for fog development and have added patchy fog
wording to the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A relatively active pattern will continue Sunday through next week
bringing multiple chances for light precipitation to the area.

The first of several upper level disturbances will move into the
area on Sunday. Models continue to indicate that the bulk of the mid-
level wave will track across KS, which will severely limit
precipitation chances for south-central Nebraska. Monday will be dry
as the wave departs and ridging briefly builds into the area.

Chances for showers return Monday night into Tuesday associated with
warm advection ahead of another upper level low located over
Arizona. This feature will eject across the central U.S. on
Wednesday. Model solutions start to diverge a bit at this point. GFS
more progressive and farther south than the ECMWF and CMC as it
phases the low with a northern-stream wave. As a result, the GFS is
markedly drier for Wednesday and Thursday. At this point, I'm
thinking that it is a bit of an outlier even compared to its own
ensemble members. PoPs have been trended back slightly compared to
previous forecast, but still have widespread rain chances Wednesday
through Thursday.

Confidence on PoPs falls off considerably for the end of next week
into the weekend as models really diverge at this point. For now,
have Friday mostly dry, with rain returning to the forecast on
Saturday, but this will likely be subject to several changes over
upcoming forecasts.

Temperature-wise, we will stay pretty close to our climate "normals"
for this time of the year. Highs will range from the mid 50s to low
60s and lows will be in the 30s to low 40s each night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Rain showers or drizzle will continue until around mid morning
especially for KGRI on the back side of an upper low pressure
system crossing the plains states. Low clouds will be prevalent
with cigs mainly LIFR or IFR this morning and possibly MVFR during
the afternoon. The morning hours today and the overnight hours
tonight will also see varying/reduced visibilities in fog.





LONG TERM...Mangels
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