FXUS63 KGID 142331
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 PM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIODS. CEILINGS ALREADY
NEAR 1K WILL DROP OVERNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL RESULT...ALTHOUGH NOT A DENSE FOG. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS TO AROUND 2K APPEARS POSSIBLE ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY AGAIN REFORM LATE TONIGHT WHICH
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWERED VISIBILITIES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINED IN WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED TO THE WEST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...THE OTHER TO THE EAST IN KY/TN. STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT OVER THE STRATUS HAS RESULTED IN
SOME DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY...WITH THE HIT AND MISS
RAIN ACCUMULATING A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. THE ONLY MODELS WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE A CLUE ON THE LIGHT PCPN TODAY ARE THE SREF AND THE 13KM RUC.
FOLLOWING TRENDS OF THE SREF/RUC13...OUR MAIN AREA OF DRIZZLE AND
HIT AND MISS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THIS AREA MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN SOME FOG AS CLOUD
HEIGHTS LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT THE
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND MID MORNING ON MONDAY...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WAS TOO COOL WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR LAST NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT READINGS ABOVE
GUIDANCE TONIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER...AND
KEPT READINGS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL HOLD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND
PREVALENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD AGAIN HOLD TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR THE
MOST PART. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
PUSH SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IN THE EVENING...AND ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK BOUNDARY AND SFC DPS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 20S FOLLOWING THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OVERNIGHT AND IN THE DRIER AIRMASS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHLD BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S IN
OUR WEST...TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF AN UPPER LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGS SOUTH FROM
MINNESOTA. THIS LOW BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO THE AREA
MAINLY IN THE EAST AND TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING UP. EXPECT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS
SEVERAL CHALLENGES. FIRST...MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING ON
WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN. THE NEXT DIFFERENCE IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENT AND HAS A
CLOSED LOW THAT SLOWS DOWN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE IT THROUGH MORE QUICKLY. ANOTHER
DIFFERENCE IS THE COLD AIR WITH THE SYSTEM. THE GFS IS COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THIS SINCE THE
CANADIAN ALSO IS SIMILAR. EXPECT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN AS THE
UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD GET
STARTED BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER. AS TEMPERATURES COOL
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW. BY
SATURDAY THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE NIGHT FRIDAY. BUT THE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY NORTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SOME. MAYBE NOT ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT AT LEAST BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$




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