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FXUS63 KGID 051139
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
639 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

As anticipated last night...most areas missed the convection
tonight/this morning...now many areas did get some rain Tuesday
morning that wasn't as anticipated until late.

Today:
Once clouds clear the area to the east...think today will be
mostly sunny with southerly winds. The addition of sun and
southerly winds will help temps reach back into the low 80s. The
pressure gradient slackens some, so winds are expected to
generally be between 10-15 mph today. Looks to be a pretty good
day for most.

Tonight:
The main challenge tonight is the chance for thunderstorms. AGain
similar to the last few nights...thunderstorms are expected to
develop off to the west over the High Plains before tracking
eastward with time. The question becomes...how far east will they
make it. The main weak disturbance will track across the southern
part of our forecast area...giving more credence to a southerly
track of the convection...if it can live this far east. This would
cause much of the area to miss out on any meaningful
precipitation. However, due to model differences, cannot rule out
that the whole area will be dry, so have kept the chance for
precip relatively low...generally less than 25-30% across the
whole area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

The upper pattern will transition through this period with upper
level northwesterly flow moving east as a low amplitude upper
level ridging builds in for the end of the work week. The ridge
quickly flattens out as a disturbance moves eastward over Canada.
What does this mean for the area...1. Temperatures will increase
into the weekend with highs into the low to mid 90s for the
weekend. 2. The upper pattern will be active...but with weak
waves...causing there to be scattered low chances for
precipitation through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Mid clouds are present
across eastern sections of Nebraska and is impacting KGRI with a
scattered deck this morning. Expect this to slowly move eastward
with time this morning. Skies should be mostly sunny by afternoon
with southerly winds. Winds may be gusting to near 20kts in the
mid-morning before decreasing through the day as the pressure
gradient decreases. Thunderstorms are possible tonight, but most
guidance keeps the primary activity off to the south and have left
any mention out of this set of TAFs to give later shifts more time
to see how trends are evolving.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright
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