FXUS65 KGJT 240215

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
815 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Issued at 807 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.Winds have decreased and temperatures have fallen, allowing RH to
rise above critical levels this evening. Therefore, the Red Flag
Warning for today has been allowed to expire. However, a Fire
Weather Watch continues for Sunday afternoon with strong northwest
winds aloft expected to mix down to the ground in northwest
Colorado and northeast Utah, leading to gusty to strong winds at
the surface over regions with potentially critical RH levels.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

After any shower or thunderstorm dissipates this evening an
extended dry period enters the picture under a persistent
northwest flow pattern. Still hoping Red Flag conditions become a
bit more widespread this afternoon...but the same showers we were
hoping to help push up the wind are also pushing up the RH. Clear
conditions will be setting up this evening which should lead to a
decent cool down and hedged the lows down just a tad toward or
below the cooler guidance numbers. A larger scale trough will be
digging across the W.Canadian provinces on Saturday which will
push a bit of high level moisture into the region. This is bumping
up the PWAT just a bit in the form of some passing high
cloudiness. Temperatures under this regime will stay well above

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Strong negative height anomalies will park over C.NOAM into early
next week with the expected positive anomalies hanging out along
the Pacific Coastline. The main concern for our area will be gusty
afternoon winds as mixing will be deep and tapping into the
stronger thermal winds aloft. So hot and dry conditions with
breezy afternoons can only main one thing...fire weather concerns.
This first concern for widespread critical fire weather
conditions come on Sunday afternoon across northern portions of
the region and watches are now in effect. Each afternoon through
the middle of next week could be of concern as we remain on the
edge or under the jet. The pattern begins a shift toward the
latter half of the week pushing the SubTrop high back toward the 4
Corners region. This will slowly draw moisture back northward but
there is not a real strong signal for widespread precipitation
until Friday and beyond.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Shower and thunderstorm remnants will die out early this evening,
and this activity is not expected to impact TAF sites. Thereafter,
expect decreasing clouds and light terrain driven winds after
dark. Dry weather expected on Saturday with winds becoming a bit
breezy during the afternoon. VFR conditions will persist through
the next 24 hours with no chance for CIGS below ILS breakpoints.


Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

On Sunday, northwest winds aloft are expected to mix down leading
to strong winds at the ground over a more widespread area of
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. These winds combined with
the continually dry conditions could meet or exceed critical
conditions again.


CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for COZ200-202.

UT...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for UTZ486-487.



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