FXUS65 KGJT 300939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Deep upper level low continues to impact the region this morning
as it moves slowly east across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas. Our forecast area now stuck under the influence of cool
and stable northerly flow with only a few orographically driven
snow showers lingering over the San Juans. Some lower stratus
stuck in the central valleys, but latest satellite trends show
some erosion along the edges and expect this to continue with
broken to overcast sky cover giving way to mostly sunny/partly
cloudy conditions by midday. The break in the weather will be
short-lived as we see flow aloft swing back around to the
northwest. This will allow for a series of weaker waves to
traverse the northern zones beginning tonight and continuing
through Tuesday. Moisture is expected to dive far enough south
that we see some light showers develop over the San Juans on
Monday, but main focus will be over the northern and central
Mountains. QPF values modest at best, but should yield around 1
to 3 inches of new snow for the favored west and northwest facing
slopes between midnight tonight and late Monday afternoon.

After a cold start to the day this morning, expect a gradual
increase in temperatures over the next 36 hours. A solid 4 to 8
degrees of warming will occur at most sites today with another 4
to 8 degrees added on for Monday. This will send afternoon temps
back toward normal for this time of the year with threat of
freezing temps in the lower valleys diminished for a immediate

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

A few showers linger Monday evening with drier weather moving back
in overnight as we await yet another, stronger system that will be
arriving by midday Tuesday. This system packing a little better
moisture which could lead to another round of mountain highlights,
but temps not slipping a ton, so main impact will be at pass
levels. This system clears out by Wednesday with high pressure
regaining control over the intermountain west. This sends
temperatures soaring back above normal as we close out the week
with fairly light winds expect considering the time of year. No
worries though, the winds return by Saturday with southwest flow
strengthening ahead of a digging Pacific trough that may start
impacting the forecast area by late in the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

BKN to OVC ILS CIGS will cont across the central valleys of
western Colorado through mid-morning before CIGS scatter out
allowing a return of VFR conds to all sites by 18Z. The improve
conds will be short-lived as another surge of Pacific moisture
works across the northern zones (along and north of I-70) after
00Z/MON, with scattered showers moving in by 06Z tonight. This
will bring lowering CIGS by midnight with ILS conds returning to
KEGE, KASE and KTEX by Monday morning. Mountains will be obscured
at times until 15Z this morning and again after 03Z tonight.


CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ006-011.



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