FXUS65 KGJT 230550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1050 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

Whose ready for another ride on the snow train? The jet stream
will continue to dig southward from the US/Canadian border and
support a few shortwaves over the next week. The first wave will
start moving in tomorrow morning with the best orographics, omega,
and moisture content occurring after midnight through daybreak
Thursday. Until then, a few showers are possible along the Divide
and that's about it. Windflow will keep the heaviest snow from
roughly Vail Pass northward though a few inches can't be ruled out
as far south as the San Juans. With all the ingredients in place,
issued some winter weather advisories with this afternoon's
package. The Central Yampa River Basin (Meeker, Craig) will see 1
to 2 inches on the western portion of the advisory while further
east, 3 to 5 inches expected. Steamboat Springs will see 6 to 8
inches when all is said and done quick moving high remaining
mountains in the advisories will receive 6 to 10 inches. Those
areas not seeing snow will see mostly cloudy skies north of the
San Juans while southern valleys should see more sun than clouds.
As one would expect, clouds will moderate temperatures somewhat so
they'll stay on the cool side.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

Most snow comes to an end by noon Thursday though some residual
showers will persist over the mountains. The big picture doesn't
change much as a deep trough remains over the eastern U.S. and a
ridge builds just off the West Coast. Impulses of energy will
move through the flow from time to time bringing precipitation to
favored areas. In this regime, the northern mountains and Flat
Tops are the most favored with the central mountains to a lesser
extent. The first wave moves through early Saturday morning but
will move through very quickly and will drop a few inches of new
snow. A stronger wave looks to move through Monday. Yesterday's
guidance suggested a weak system with minimal support and expected
precipitation. Now, both the EC and GFS are bringing in a decent
jet streak which is supporting a more robust cold front and
widespread precipitation. Not buying it just yet. Plenty of time
for models to flip flop so let's see what the next few model runs
bring. Those areas outside of the snow will see variable
cloudiness and at or below normal temperatures. Again, snow
covered valleys will remain under inversions, for the most part,
keeping high temperatures lower than usual. Those areas that break
out of inversions will see temperatures near normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1050 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

Clouds will increase Wednesday morning as the next system
approaches from the northwest. Ceilings will lower across
northwest Colorado and parts of central Colorado especially after
12Z with snow showers beginning across KHDN after 15Z and KASE
after 18Z. KRIL and KEGE will get into the action after 01Z
Thursday as a more robust wave moves through. Expect lowered cigs
and vsby in snow showers across those areas with MVFR and IFR at
times. ILS breakpoints likely to be reached at those sites as
well. KGUC and KTEX may see VCSH and some light snow showers
Wednesday evening but not expecting much reduction in vis.
Elsewhere, expect just increasing cloud cover.


CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 11 AM MST
Thursday for COZ002-004-005-013.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 11 AM MST
Thursday for COZ010.



Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page