FXUS65 KGJT 171007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
307 AM MST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM MST Sat Nov 17 2018

A Winter Weather Advisory continues this morning through 8 PM this
evening for portions of Colorado's northern mountains. A
shortwave trough and cold front will continue traveling south
through Wyoming this morning. The system appears as a classic
baroclinic leaf on IR satellite, with its leading edge of clouds
just reaching the northern CO and northeast UT borders early this
morning. The front will continue plunging south today and tonight.
It packs enough dynamics and favorable temperature and moisture
profiles to produce advisory level snow accumulations over the CO
northern mountains, with lessor amounts expected of the Eastern
Uinta mountains in UT and Colorado's central mountains. Late this
afternoon through early this evening should see the best snowfall
rates with 4 to 8 inches total accumulation above 9000 feet
expected over the Park and Elkhead mountains.

The front and its precipitation will move steadily south and
decrease Saturday night, then skies will clear Sunday, though
temperatures should be much cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM MST Sat Nov 17 2018

Models continued to show dry conditions with near normal
temperatures during the first half of the coming week. During
this period flow will shift from the northwest to the west on
Tuesday as the high pressure ridge pushes over the area, then
becomes southwesterly on Wednesday as the ridge axis moves east
of the region. During this time a weak area of low pressure will
undercut the ridge creating an ersatz Rex Block which fails to
anchor over the area. Subsequently, a shortwave trough moves
eastward over the area on Thanksgiving Day bringing the potential
for snow showers and slightly cooler temperatures which could
linger into Friday. However, model agreement on timing and
intensity of this system remained poor so hesitate to put much
detail into the forecast at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 307 AM MST Sat Nov 17 2018

As a cold front moves south across the area layered lower and
mid-level clouds will spread across the area from north to south.
Periods of snow will affect KHDN from 17Z through 23Z resulting
in MVFR CIGS and VSBY. Showers will be in the vicinity of KEGE and
KASE after 21Z which will bring CIGS below ILS breakpoints with a
chance for brief snow showers and MVFR CIGS and VSBY. KRIL can
expect CIGS below ILS breakpoints after 00Z/Sunday. Elsewhere,
expect VFR conditions and CIGS above ILS breakpoints. Winds will
relatively light, shifting to the north as a cold front passes
through the region from this afternoon and tonight.


CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
evening for COZ004.



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