FXUS65 KGJT 042105
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
305 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS GOT OFF TO AN EARLY START TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND ANOTHER BRUSHING
NORTHEAST UT. DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE BENEATH A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. MORNING KGJT SOUNDING HELD 0.96 INCHES
LIQUID WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UPSTREAM IN THE KSLC
SOUNDING.

PLENTY OF DIURNAL HEATING IN STORE...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THOUGH STORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST AT BETWEEN 10
AND 14 MPH...TRAINING CELLS POSE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
STORMS WILL LARGELY DIMINISH AFTER DARK...HOWEVER...ANY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WORKING ON THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS COULD GENERATE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A NOCTURNAL STORM.

MODELS SUGGEST MODEST DRYING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SO EXPECT
COMMENSURATE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH STORMS PRODUCING A
BIT LESS RAIN AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THE DRYING TREND RISING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND INCREASINGLY SO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMALS DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION'S
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DURING
THIS TIME...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.15 TO 0.25
INCHES. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE HIGH
COUNTY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S IN THE VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON THURSDAY...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ITS AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS HINT AT THE RETURN OF SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .60 INCHES
BY FRIDAY. THE LACK OF DYNAMICS SPELLS THE RECIPE FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
...WILL GENERATE MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH ARE ALSO
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. AWAY FROM STORMS...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM....BAL
AVIATION.....NL

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