FXUS63 KGLD 271117
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
517 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017
Thunderstorm activity should begin to diminish during the early
morning hours as low level jet/isentropic lift shifts eastward.
Northwesterly surface winds will increase this morning behind a
trough/cold front, helping dry out the lower levels. This
afternoon, another shortwave trough will move out of the central
Rockies and into the adjacent plains. However, the environment
will be very different than the last couple of days. Instability
will be limited to only a few hundred j/kg. Storms will move out
of central Colorado in the afternoon and into northeastern
Colorado/adjacent areas by late afternoon, then move south and
diminish during the evening hours. Due to the limited instability,
no severe storms are expected. Temperatures will be slightly below
normal due to cloud cover and cooler air behind the front.
Sunday is expected to be mostly sunny under dry northwest flow.
Breezy northwest winds will continue. Temperatures will warm to
near normal... the middle to upper 70s.
Monday will be dry during the day then a chance of thunderstorms
in the evening with a weak shortwave trough in the northwest flow.
Instability once again looks quite limited, less than 500 j/kg,
and confined mainly to areas south of Interstate 70. Due to the
limited instability, no severe storms are expected. Temperatures
will be slightly above normal... in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017
There are multiple opportunities for precipitation during the
extended period. Per current guidance, Tuesday is looking like the
least wide spread coverage but there are still chances for some rain
showers and isolated storms in the afternoon and evening. This is
due to a shortwave trough moving over the region.
Come Wednesday through Friday, chances for coverage of rain showers
and storms is greater. Yet, model guidance are differing in their
solutions as the week progresses. So knowing or pinpointing what
will exactly happen is difficult at this time. There is a strong
signal that the CWA will get precipitation but knowing if there will
be a severe threat is difficult to determine; especially with
instability not all that impressive. Will continue to monitor as next
Temperatures will be in the 70s during the period. Some locations
may reach the low 80s.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 517 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017
Main aviation concern will be low ceilings moving in behind a cold
front this morning. Upstream observation show ceilings already
dropping to IFR at many locations, and expecting those clouds to
reach KGLD and KMCK early this morning. They will persist into
early or mid afternoon before lifting. Surface winds will also
increase and become breezy behind the cold front through late
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