FXUS63 KGLD 121740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1040 AM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 216 AM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

Across the region this morning...mainly clear skies over the area
with some high cloud cover approaching far western locales. With
high pressure settling slowly ESE over the area...winds are light
out of the WSW and temperatures are currently ranging from the upper
teens through the mid 20s...aided in part at this time from the
light downslope flow.

Going into today...high pressure over the central Plains from the
surface thru 500 mb will provide the entire CWA with a sunny/msunny
sky with above normal temps. 850 mb temps thru the day will reach
+7c to +10c giving the area daytimes highs ranging mainly in the 50s
which will be several degrees above normal for this time of year.
Light westerly downslope flow thru the day will aid in the decent
WAA into the area.

These conditions will be out ahead of an approaching upper level
trough and associated surface front that will work off the central
Rockies moving fairly quickly ESE across the CWA...clearing the area
going into Thursday morning. Latest runs of the GFS/NAM still show
this system coming across the Plains region as a split flow...with
the more potent portion of the trough forming a cutoff low south of
the CWA over the southern Plains...with the northern portion passing
north of the CWA. The result of this will keep deep moisture away
from the area...with only limited potential from the passage of the
trough itself in combination with its surface reflection. Have
continued trend of 20-40 pops for a very light rain/snow mix across
the CWA Wed night into early Thursday morning...before clearing
occurs with high pressure returning for much of Thursday on into
Friday night. Consensus of only a few hundredths of an inch at best
of QPF...so not expecting any accum of snowfall. Best chances for
precip will occur along and west of Highway 25...after 00z Thursday.

The non-precip concern with the passage of this system will be the
potential for strong gusty northerly winds on the backside of this
system as it moves thru the area. Latest Bufkit shows potential to
mix down from at least 850/700mb to almost 60 mph. Will continue
High Wind Watch for areas along and south of Interstate 70 based on
timing with current expected track. This will be updated later today
with a potential warning as new guidance comes in.

The quick exit of this system will allow for strong mid level ridge
to build NE off the Rockies. The approaching high pressure will
return the area to above normal conditions...dry weather.

For temps...highs Thursday mainly in the 40s...with mostly 50s
returning for Friday. Overnight lows will mainly be in the
20s...with some teens Thursday night due to clearing skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 134 AM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

Synopsis...The Central High Plains will remain dry with above normal
temperatures Saturday through Wednesday. No precipitation,
significant fronts, or major air mass changes are expected
throughout the forecast period. High temperatures will generally be
in the low to mid 50s, while lows will generally be in the mid to
upper 20s.

Discussion...An upper-level trough over the southeast United States
this weekend will be progressing eastward while upper-level ridging
will be building over the southwest United States. This upper-level
flow pattern means a period of quieter and drier weather is in store
for the Central High Plains for this forecast period as this upper-
level ridging will persist into early next week. High temperatures
will be abnormally warm reaching into the low to mid 50s each day
for nearly all locations in the forecast area. Low temperatures will
be similarly steady, although they will warm slightly from the low
to mid 20s Saturday morning to the mid to upper 20s Sunday to the
low 30s by Wednesday.

While some long term forecast guidance shows a developing trough
over the southwest United States around the middle of next week, the
current placement of the trough appears to be far enough south that
it will not affect the Tri-State area. Either way, forecast
confidence remains too low that far out to determine when and where
precip will fall. For now, it looks like it will be at least a week
from now before the next major system will impact the forecast area
in the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1040 AM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

An upper level trough and its associated cold front will move
through the terminals by around 03z this evening. Before then
expect southwest winds 10kts or less under just a few mid/high
level clouds. After 03z both terminals will see north to northwest
winds increase into the 20 to 30kt range with gusts over 30 to 45
kt range (highest at KGLD) through the rest of the taf period.
There appears to be some sub vfr cigs moving into KGLD in the
05z-07z timeframe with a secondary chance after 13z. For KMCK will
have to monitor the possibility of sub vfr cigs after 06z. Some
light snow is possible at KGLD in the 05z-08z timeframe and when
combined with the strong winds produce some reduced visibilities.
At this time the snow should be light enough to not reduce
visibilities but the chance does exist.


KS...High Wind Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for

CO...High Wind Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for



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