FXUS63 KGLD 141643
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 AM MDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.UPDATE...
1030 AM MDT SUN MAR 14 2010

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE. HOWEVER...CONTINUED FOG INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LITTLE
MIXING...NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...AND INCREASING UPSLOPE.
SPEAKING OF UPSLOPE...PLAN PROFILER WINDS SHOWING USPLOPE WINDS
THROUGH 700 MB AND THOSE GET A LITTLE BETTER AS THE DAY GOES ON.
ALSO MODELS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY SUBSIDENCE.

12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A LOT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG
INVERSION. BASED ON ABOVE...LOOKS LIKE THE INVERSION WILL STAY IN
PLACE. MODELS WANTING TO GET RID OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. RATHER EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...AND HAS SHOWN
LITTLE TENDENCY TO THIN. IN SOME PLACES IT HAS EXPANDED. SO
BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC. BUFKIT IS IS CLOSEST TO
GETTING EXPECTED SCENARIO THE BEST. IT KEEPS THE STRATUS DECK BUT
DOES RAISE THE CEILINGS. HOWEVER...RAISING OF THE CEILINGS TOO
MUCH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AND THAT IS WHY I KEPT THE FOG IN.

PLUS WILL HAVE INCREASING MID AND CLOUDS...MAINLY IN THE WEST...DUE
TO THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT OF CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD...SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED MAXES FOR THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. HILL CITY MAY BE THE ONLY
PLACE THAT GETS CLOSE. DEPENDING ON TRENDS OF CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND
FOG...ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED.

BULLER
&&

.DISCUSSION...
1243 AM MST SUN MAR 14 2010

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM AND THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM COVERING THIS MORNING...THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 9AM MDT. IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS COVERING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING WARMER.

WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THE FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STRATUS IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE 48 HOURS AGO INDICATED TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT NOW APPEARS THE COLD FRONT HAS
BEEN DELAYED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE FRONT AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY 12Z FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CHANGES IN THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES UP ON THURSDAY AND TO DELAY THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO FRIDAY.

LOCKHART
&&

.AVIATION...
538 AM MDT SUN MAR 14 2010

FOR 12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING ALONG WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF AREA WHICH
DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE GLD TERMINAL. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY TRENDS
INDICATE A STRONG LIKELIHOOD (>80%) THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z. FOR MCK...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THAT CIGS WILL STAY IN MVFR RANGE...BUT
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AM CONCERNED SMALL WINDOW OF IFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS AIRMASS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.

JRM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$




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