FXUS63 KGLD 211548

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
848 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

Issued at 842 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

Temperatures have warmed allowing wind chill readings to also be
warmer and above the needed criteria. So have updated the forecast
with the cancelling of the wind chill advisory.

UPDATE Issued at 406 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

Update to forecast to remove/cancel the eastern most 4 counties
from the current Wind Chill Advisory. Latest obs in this area not
reaching criteria due to lack of wind as well as temps being above
zero so far. Still...locales here will still see readings drop to
minus 10 degrees thru mid-morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 221 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...cold arctic air remains
over the area with temperatures ranging in a mix of single numbers
above and below zero. Winds are light for most locales...but even
with the light conditions...wind chill readings are ranging from -2F
down to -19F. Some scattered mid and high clouds are filtering thru
the region...and aiding in the large temp difference by offering
some areas a shield from radiational cooling effects. The snowpack
received from the system yesterday also a factor where temps are

Current Wind Chill Advisory will be allowed to continued with focus
on temps around the area thru effective time...15z. Will consider
cancellation if trend is upward a bit in temps to lessen the effects
of wind chill.

Going into today...looking for increasing temps thru the day as
surface ridge shifts east towards the Mississippi Valley...allowing
for WAA on southerly flow. Even with the increase in WAA over the
area...increasing clouds late in the day with approaching
system...will afford the region daytime highs only in the upper 20s
w/ a few locales near 30F.

For tonight on into Thursday...the region see the first in a series
of shortwaves that will move thru the area. This first one will
trigger light precip to start after 06z Thursday and taper off from
SW to NE as the H5/H7 trough swings across the area. Limited QPF
with this system will focus expected light precip mainly north of I-
70 and east of Highway 25. Up to a half inch of light snow is
possible with even a trace of freezing rain based on latest models.

The CWA will see a break in wx conditions Thursday night into Friday
with dry conditions...only to set the region up for a stronger
shortwave to push east off the Rockies going into Friday
night...helped by an inverted surface trough/low to pass south of
the area during this timeframe. For Friday night...more widespread
light snow is expected with highest amounts around an inch north of
I-70. Eastern zones could see a few hundredths of an inch of
freezing rain as temps transition to more snow conditions.

For temps...highs Thursday/Friday mainly in the 30s w/ a few 40s in
far southern zones. Overnight lows will range from the teens tonight
up to the 20s in most locales going into Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

Shortwave will move through on Saturday brining wintry
precipitation to the Tri-State area. Expecting a brief period of
rain showers that will quickly shift to snowfall. By Saturday
night, the shortwave will be out of our area and the weather along
with it.

After the system passes, the pattern will transition to more zonal
flow. Shifting to westerly flow will allow warmer temperatures
and dryer air to move back in this weekend and into the work week.
Max temperatures will start in the upper 30s to mid 40s on
Saturday and jump up to the upper 40s to mid 50s by Tuesday.
Minimum temps will range in the upper teens to low 20s through

By Wednesday, the current pattern begins to shift and trend back
to more active weather again. Current guidance has a system moving
north outside of our CWA barely, but the potential is still there
for it to impact the Tri-State area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 356 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru 03z Thursday...then MVFR ceilings
and VCSH as a weak storm system moves over the area. Winds...W
around 5kts thru 14z then SSE around 10kts...w/ gusts to 20kts
19z Wednesday-00z Thursday.

For KMCK...VFR conditions thru 04z Thursday...then MVFR ceilings
and VCSH as a weak storm system moves over the area. Winds...
light/variable thru 18z then ESE around 5-10kts.




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