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FXUS63 KGLD 231118
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
418 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 205 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Across the forecast area this morning...a thin veil of high cloud
combined with light WNW winds is giving the region a temperature
range from the upper 30s to the mid and upper 40s.

For today...the H5/H7 ridge that had been amplified over the western
portion of the country is beginning to flatten/break down as an
upper level low works into the Pacific NW. The ridge axis associated
with the upper level ridge will traverse the Plains region thru the
day settling south of the CWA going into Friday.

The approaching upper low working into the west coast will make its
way off the Rockies and thru the Plains region Friday/Friday night.
This system will be accompanied by a surface cold front that will
push thru the area about the same timeframe...with some model timing
differences.

Going into the first half of the upcoming weekend...the passage of
the upper trough will allow for amplified upper ridging to re-assert
itself over the western portions of the country. As the upper ridge
amplifies in the Rockies...surface high pressure rolls off the
Rockies and east into the Plains east of the area by Saturday night.

The result of the aforementioned systems working thru the area...dry
weather will be expected. The cold front will come thru dry as all
dynamics stay with upper trough north of the CWA. Plus surface ridge
to the south and east of the area during this time blocking any
pertinent low level moisture from working into the area.

The CWA will see near record(above normal) highs in the lower 70s
today and possibly even Friday but will depend on fropa timing. For
Saturday...low 60s present with coolest spots east due to proximity
of surface ridge axis shifting east of the CWA. Overnight lows
tonight in the lower 40s will give way to low 30s Friday night as
CAA works into the region behind the front. Saturday night...lower
to mid 30s. The passage of the cold front Friday will also bring
gusty winds into the region with 30-35 mph gusts possible.

Please refer to the Climate section below for information on records
for highs today and Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

The main variance in models in the extended has been the evolution
of a trough passage Monday night through Wednesday. 12Z ECMWF showed
a strong solution with closed H5/H7 upper low tracking from the four
corners over our CWA, but this has been the run to run outlier. 00Z
ECMWF still tries to close off the southern portion of the trough,
but now is much further south and weaker (would be dry for our CWA
if this solution verified). 00Z GFS and GEM are in line with
previous runs and show a much more progressive positively tilted
trough passage. Considering the 00Z trends matching the much more
consistent GFS/GEM the decision was made to continue a dry
forecast through the extended.

Regarding temperatures: Above normal (near record) highs in the 70s
will be possible Sunday and Monday ahead of the approaching trough,
with temperatures closer to seasonal normals from Tuesday and
Wednesday (near 50).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 418 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions expected thru the forecast period for both taf
sites(KGLD/KMCK) w/ mainly FEW-SCT250. Winds for KGLD...WNW
around 10kts becoming WSW around 10kts by 22z this afternoon.
Winds for KMCK...W around 10kts thru 23z today then becoming WSW
around 10kts.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 205 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Here are the record high temperatures for Today 11/23...and Friday
11/24:

Today Friday

Goodland KS 72F in 1925 82F in 1910

McCook NE 72F in 2005 72F in 1995

Burlington CO 72F in 1925 75F in 2012

Hill City KS 72F in 2005 73F in 1923

Colby KS 84F in 1998 75F in 1915

Tribune KS 82F in 1998 76F in 1942

Yuma CO 76F in 2002 73F in 1990

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...JN
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