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FXUS63 KGLD 171020
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Today-tonight...a surface trough is expected to set up in a northeast
to southwest orientation late this afternoon from near McCook to
Colby and Goodland to Flagler. A weather disturbance aided by some
upper jet support is expected to move into the area by mid
afternoon working with the trough to maximize low level
convergence and produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Precipitable water values around 1.5 inches plus or minus a few
tenths is also expected to be within the moisture axis favoring
some locally heavy rainfall. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s
to around 103, low relative humidity and DCAPE values of at least
1500 J/KG support latest HRRR wind gust forecasts of up to 75 mph
from some of the expected thunderstorms. This may also produce
some blowing dust and reduced visibilities. The shower and
thunderstorm activity should slowly move southeast this evening
and out of the area or diminish around midnight. Low temperatures
range from the low 60s in the west to around 70 in the east.

Regarding todays heat advisory, latest data is consistent with
yesterdays issuance with heat index values of 103F to 106F in the
advisory area.

Thursday-Thursday night...some instability is forecast across the
eastern half of the area during the afternoon where southerly winds
keep dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60. However, with no jet
support and 700/500mb temperatures very warm its unlikely that
thunderstorms can be produced so will keep things dry. High
temperatures reach the upper 90s to around 102 in far eastern
Colorado, 102 to 105 east of the CO/KS border. Low temperatures
range from the low to mid 60s in far eastern Colorado, mid 60s to
mid 70s east of the border.

A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for locations east of a line
from Norton county to Gove county where heat index values of 103F to
106F currently advertised during the afternoon hours.

Friday-Friday night...dry weather expected. High temperatures very
similar to Thursdays with 101-106 east of the CO/KS border, upper
90s to around 101 in far eastern Colorado. Low temperatures range
from the low to mid 60s in the west, upper 60s to mid 70s east of
the CO/KS border.

A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for locations east of a line
from Hitchcock county to possibly Thomas and Gove. In this area heat
index values of 103F to 108F are currently expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019

After several days of dealing with the heat, the extended forecast does
offer some needed relief. The hot and dry pattern will transition
to a pattern with cooler temperatures and daily chances for
moisture.

Saturday morning, a weak upper level trough will gradually deepen as it
progresses east over the U.S.-Canada border. The upper level
ridge will remain over the Dakotas with a broad area of high
pressure over the southern part of the nation. A shortwave trough
will move into the area through the Tri-State area Saturday.
Temperatures will remain hot with highs in the mid-90s to low
100s. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the
afternoon and evening.

Sunday, the upper trough will move over the Dakotas, reaching the upper
Michigan Peninsula by early Monday morning. The ridge will
amplify as it shifts west, with ridge axis to the west of the
Bighorns in Wyoming. Northwest flow aloft will set up over the
Tri-State area and high pressure will become centered over the
Four Corners region. Temperatures will be cooler, primarily in the
mid to upper 80s for highs with a few low 90s possible in the
southern and eastern portions of the CWA. A shortwave trough will
move through the area and a few afternoon/evening showers and
storms will be possible.

Monday through Wednesday, the ridge to our west will continue to
amplify. The Tri-State area will remain under northwest flow
aloft. A series of shortwaves moving through the area will give us
daily chances for a few showers and thunderstorms. Monday begins a
gradual warming trend with temperatures in the the low to mid-80s.
By Wednesday, highs are expected to return to the mid-80s to low
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Southwest winds
around 8kts at taf issuance will increase and become sustained
near 15kts with some higher gusts in the 15z-20z timeframe. Strong
to possibly severe thunderstorms producing wind gusts over 50kts
will be possible in the 21z-23z timeframe based on latest HRRR
model output, could last a bit longer per NAM model. The strong
wind gusts could produce some blowing dust and reduced
visibilities. At this time confidence too low to include
visibility restrictions from dust and maybe heavy rainfall. After
about 00z vfr conditions return.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Similar to KGLD
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms producing wind gusts over
50kts are possible, mainly in the 22z-24z timeframe but could be
an hour or so longer. Blowing dust, heavy rainfall also a
possibility.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ003-004-015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...99
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