FXUS63 KGLD 192351

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
551 PM MDT Sun May 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sun May 19 2019

Weak upper ridging persisted over the High Plains today, keeping
conditions dry as a large upper trough pushed onto the west coast.
This disturbance has been generating some cloud cover over the
desert southwest which is spreading into the region from the west
this afternoon. Additionally, northwesterly winds that have been
gusting between 20 and 30 mph are beginning to decline as they shift
east. At 2 PM MT (3 PM CT), temperatures ranged in the upper 50s
to low 60s.

The west coast low pressure system slowly advances eastward tonight,
and cloud cover continues to increase. The main chance for
precipitation with this system will begin after midnight when rain
showers and thunderstorms move into the region from the south.
However, cannot rule out a few showers and storms in eastern
Colorado this evening as disturbances eject from the low. East winds
are anticipated to increase overnight as well, particularly along
and west of the Colorado border, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Low
temperatures range from the upper 30s north of the Nebraska border
to the upper 40s in west central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Sun May 19 2019

Mon-Mon Night: An upper level low moving ashore central/northern
CA this afternoon will dig southeast into the Desert SW on Monday
and assume a negative tilt as it lifts northeast into the
Southern/Central Plains Monday night. An associated lee cyclone
will intensify in eastern Colorado in this period. Expect
convection to rapidly develop over the TX/OK Panhandles around
sunrise Monday morning in assoc/w strengthening low-level
convergence, warm advection, and increasingly diffluent flow
aloft. Convection will become elevated in nature as it progresses
N-NNE into southwest KS between 12-18Z, with hail expected to be
the primary threat through early afternoon. With widespread
convection anticipated to develop upstream over the TX/OK
Panhandle into central OK, significant uncertainty persists with
regard to convective evolution in western KS during the afternoon
and evening hours. Sfc-based convection capable of producing all
severe weather hazards will be possible along the northern extent
of the warm sector along/south of I-70 late Mon aft/eve -- and
possibly into Mon night. With numerous rounds of scattered to
widespread convection, locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will be a distinct possibility, particularly south and east of
Goodland where soil is saturated from recent rainfall and
convective coverage is anticipated to be the greatest.

Tue-Sat: An upper level ridge strengthening over the Southeast/
Deep South and persistent troughing over the western CONUS are
anticipated to maintain rich low-level moisture advection from the
western GOMEX into the Southern/Central Plains through the end of
the work week. Expect well above normal chances for precipitation
and episodic severe weather -- with the relative best chance for
severe weather on Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 547 PM MDT Sun May 19 2019

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Cloud cover currently spreading
overhead will gradually lower through the night, with MVFR
quickly transitioning to IFR conditions as the rain moves in after
12z for both sites. The rainfall may be heavy enough to cause the
visibility to fall to MVFR during the day. During the day elevated
thunderstorms may form, with the intensity of the storms
increasing during the afternoon/evening.




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