FXUS63 KGLD 090106
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
706 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020
Issued at 652 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020
Storm development looking more promising as updraft over Yuma
County has been more persistent. Upper level lift will continue
to increase through the evening, which should help with storm
Storm development has not occurred as quickly as expected today.
This may be due to the drier air aloft serving to delay storm
development. Latest data has delayed and shifted east the timing
of storm development for the evening.
Instead of storms firing along the dry line over the east half of
the forecast area, the main area of storm activity may end up
being along the northern part of the forecast area where the MCS
is. As the MCS moves east into the better environment, storm
activity may may end up extending south from it into the forecast
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020
Tonight...strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly
along and east of a line from Max Nebraska to Atwood and
Grainfield Kansas. Along and east of this line CAPE values
approaching 4000 J/KG with DCAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG.
Thunderstorms are expected to begin further west and more high
based/isolated near a dryline then increase in coverage across our
northeast and eastern zones in response to an approaching upper
disturbance within west-northwest flow aloft. Several runs of the
operational HRRR have suggested wind gusts to 90 mph across our
far northeast area turning to the right into Graham and Norton
counties by mid evening. Given the large DCAPE values and the 91
mph wind gust in Hill City last week its certainly possible.
Precipitable water values are in the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across
the east as well supporting WPC outlook for excessive rainfall.
Surface winds will shift to an easterly direction overnight behind
the departing MCS. Post frontal low clouds are also possible. Low
temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s to around 60
in far eastern Colorado to the low and mid 60s east of the CO/KS
Thursday-Thursday night...lots of uncertainty regarding
temperatures and precipitation forecasts. NAM/GFS 700-500mb
forecasts show some moisture reaching our far eastern Colorado
counties in the late afternoon hours then dissipating some while
moving east across the rest of the area during the evening. Cant
rule out some isolated storms as a result. We're currently
expecting high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. If the
NAM verifies readings will be a little cooler. Low temperatures
are expected to be in the low to mid 60s.
Friday...dry weather is expected but will need to be watched as
another weak disturbance aided by an increase in 700-500mb
moisture moves into the northwest 1/2 of the area during the time
of peak heating. High temperatures are expected to be in the low
to upper 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020
The ridge will continue to build north with the area of high
pressure centered over New Mexico, Arizona, and western portions of
Texas Friday night. The area of high pressure will continue to
remain stationary over the southwest states through the extended;
however, the extent of the ridge around the high will be suppressed
starting Monday afternoon. On Monday afternoon, an upper level low
will move east across western Canada, suppressing the amplitude of
the ridge generating westerly zonal flow aloft over and north of the
Central Plains region through the forecast period. Looking towards
Wednesday, there is disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF over the
placement of the low in the Saskatchewan province. The GFS is
trending lower towards the center of the providence with a trough
digging south into central Colorado during the early morning hours.
In this scenario the trough would move east across the Tri-State
area Wednesday afternoon to evening, straightening the trough to a
more zonal flow aloft as it moves. The ECMWF is placing the low in
the northern part of Saskatchewan, maintaining westerly zonal flow
over the Plains.
Due to the pattern we are in, much of the extended period will be
hot and dry. Surface level winds will generally be from the south
Friday night into Saturday morning before the winds shift towards
the northeast then east. The winds will gradually become southerly
through the day Sunday remaining from that direction through Monday
night. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
evening due to a shortwave trough. There is some disagreement into
the timing and location of the precipitation occurring, but it
appears the western portion of the CWA along and west of Hwy 27 has
the greatest chance. Monday will be hot and dry. Tuesday, another
shortwave trough will move east across the Tri-State area bringing
another chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening into
early Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front.
High temperatures across the Tri-State area will be in the mid to
upper 90s with some locations reaching the low 100s on Saturday,
Monday, and Tuesday. Wednesday will be "cooler" with high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s after the passing of the front.
Lows each day of the extended will be in the 60s to low 70s, warming
to the eastern counties of the CWA. Due to the hot and dry
conditions, near-elevated fire weather conditions are possible for
the western portion of the Tri-State area, especially along and west
of the Colorado state line. Model guidance indicates relative
humidity values dropping near and below 20% west of highway 27
Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday. Forecasted wind gusts are currently
expected to remain below the elevated fire weather criteria of 25
kts; however, the winds could gust close to the threshold for
eastern portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020
VFR to possibly MVFR conditions are forecast for the TAFs. Main
focus is the impacts/timing of the storm activity this evening.
KMCK will receive the brunt of the storm activity this evening.
Isolated storms may form to the west of Hwy 83. However, am
thinking most of the storm activity will occur along and east of
Hwy 83 this evening. Straight-line winds will be the main threat,
with a secondary threat of large hail. Behind the storm activity
the ceilings may lower to MVFR for both sites. The question is
will there be enough cloud cover to create a broken vs. scattered
deck. The clouds should clear out by late morning from west to
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