FXUS63 KGLD 050900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012


.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
200 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012

CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND A LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. RESULT SHOULD BE SEASONABLE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW COVER EXISTS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS WERE DEEPER SNOW PACK EXISTS WILL BE
HELD IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

THE GREAT BASIN LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH COLDER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
TIED TO H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. WITH THE SKY CLEARING DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE COLDER END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FOLTZ

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
200 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012

WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN DRY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW FLOW. MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT BEST DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ANYWAY. SO...WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...BUT
BASICALLY DROPPED ONGOING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. MODELS DIFFER
IN TIMING OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHEN 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WILL
ALSO HAVE SOME SNOW COVER THAT WILL LIMIT WARMING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS COUNTIES.

MENTZER
&&

.AVIATION...
954 PM MST SAT FEB 4 2012

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...DEW POINTS AT THE TERMINALS HAVE DECREASED THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. FOG FORMATION AT THE TERMINALS SEEMS LESS AND LESS LIKELY
CONSIDERING RECENT OBSERVATIONS...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ALSO LEANING AWAY FROM FOG. LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DRIER AIR TO THE TERMINALS.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$




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