FXUS63 KGLD 191749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1149 AM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 243 AM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...much of the area lies
north of a stalled frontal boundary...which currently sits along
E/SE periphery zones. Locales north mainly cloudy...seeing a NNE
flow with gusts up to 15-25 mph in spots and temps in the 60s. The
few locales sitting along or south of the front are mainly clear
with a light southerly flow and temps in the lower to mid 70s.

Also...KS/NE border zones are currently seeing rw/trw on a south to
north trajectory...mainly remnants of convection from NE CO. Some of
this activity is developing and pushing north of the CWA. Radar
estimates so far have locales in the heaviest showers receiving
upwards of 0.30-0.60" of rain. These totals will play role for
antecedent conditions for expected rainfall later today/tonight.

The main weather concerns for the short term period will continue to
focus on the today/tonight timeframe with the potential for heavy
rainfall as well as the potential for severe wx. Attention during
this time will be placed on the current frontal boundary just ESE of
the CWA...and the approaching upper low from the northern Rockies.

Convection set to begin as a trough ahead of the approaching upper
low interacts with the low level airmass along and north of the
surface front. Convection further enhanced as the upper low gets
closer overnight tonight...continuing into Wednesday morning before
tapering off.

With PW values still around 1.00-1.50" and model instability
parameters high enough to support severe conditions as storms
develop...the Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect as training of
storms will create to potential for flooding. SPC has upgraded the
area to a Slight Risk for this afternoon/tonight with wind...hail
and even some tornadoes a factor. Overall rainfall totals will reach
1-2" with higher localized amounts in areas of training.

For Wednesday and Wednesday night...upper low continues to
transition ESE thru the Plains region. Looking for some additional
precipitation on the wrap-around circulation of the upper low. Model
QPF is low...so low pop chances expected for rw/trw. By Thursday
with upper low well east of the region...upper ridging from the
Rockies builds into the Central Plains allowing for a dry day for
the area.

For temps...highs Wed/Thur will range from the mid 70 to the lower
80s...warmest south and will be off of highs today from the mid 70s
to the lower 90s due to the frontal boundary over the south.
Lows...mainly in the mid to upper 50s...with some local 60s east

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

An active upper level pattern will continue Friday morning through
Tuesday. An upper level disturbance ahead of trough will bring
chances for storms Friday night. Sunday afternoon into Monday
morning looks to bring more rain to the Tri-state region. High
values of PVA associated with an upper level low moving into the
Northern Plains and surface upslope flow look to be the main causes
of possible heavy rain. There are temporal differences between the
ECMWF and GFS pertaining to the rain expected Sunday night which
will continued to be monitored. By Tuesday the trough progresses
eastward and a ridge moves in to take its place leading to drier

Temperatures are expected to be in the 80s through the end of the
week and into the weekend with warmer, near-normal temperatures
returning Tuesday. Lows range from the mid 50s to mid 60s Friday
night through Monday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Complicated forecast. High resolution models not doing well in
resolving cloud cover, low level moisture/temperatures, and
especially the wind field. Front that was pushed a little further
south early this morning due to overnight convection is starting
to return north. Where this front ends up will be area of
thunderstorm focus. Other area of initiation will be from the
higher terrain to the west.

Winds will be variable in direction but will tend to start out
from the east and southeast at roughly 10 to 15 knots. Kmck will
shift more to the northeast while Kgld will become more south with
some gusts into the 20 to 25 knot range by later this afternoon.
Thunderstorms should develop/move into the area later this
afternoon into early this evening. Conditions will start out vfr
but expect mvfr conditions when thunderstorms affect the sites.
After the storms end, mvfr ceilings will hang on until tomorrow
morning before becoming vfr once again.


KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001>004-013>016-

CO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.



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