FXUS63 KGLD 160941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
241 AM MST Sat Feb 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM MST Fri Feb 15 2019

CAA will dominate the Tri-State area this weekend throughout the
early work week. However for tomorrow afternoon, expect daily
highs with quite the range of temperatures sitting in the low 20s
to the upper 30s tomorrow afternoon. Lows tonight and tomorrow
night in will be in the teens.

Saturday night will be our next chance of some light
precipitation, as a weak upper level shortwave trough will move
across the high plains from the Colorado rockies. Expecting at
most a light dusting for our portions of our CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Feb 16 2019

The long term period will be characterized by below normal
temperatures and occasional chances for light snow. Shortwave
energy will be ejecting out of the nearly stationary trough over
the western CONUS. With a cold air mass in place, phase will be
all snow. First wave impacts the area on Tuesday with the
potential for a few inches of light snow. Temperatures will be in
the teens, so snow-liquid ratios will be high and actual snow
amounts may be a bit higher than models indicate. Should get a
break from the snow on Wednesday as the wave lifts out and
shortwave ridging briefly moves over. The next shortwave will
arrive on Thursday in the southwest flow. GFS only showing light
snow amounts while the ECMWF has little to none. If the snow does
materialize expecting it to be very light. Most of Friday will be
dry but then have to watch the main trough as it starts to come
out of the Four Corners area Friday night. This system could
potentially be stronger, as it is closed aloft and taking an ideal
track towards the central Plains for heavy snow. The details are
sketchy at this time range, and main impacts may wait until just
after this forecast period (next weekend).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1015 PM MST Fri Feb 15 2019

MCK: MVFR ceilings are expected to deteriorate to IFR overnight.
Ceilings may improve to MVFR late Saturday morning -- before
deteriorating to IFR (possibly LIFR) Saturday afternoon and
evening. Light snow will be possible, primarily after ~21Z. ESE
winds ~10 knots will prevail overnight, veering to the SE-SSE and
increasing to ~15 knots during the day on Saturday.

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail at the beginning of the TAF
period, however, low MVFR ceilings (along/east of Highway 25 at
05Z) are expected to gradually shift westward to/near GLD ~09Z,
possibly persisting through ~15Z. VFR conditions are anticipated
to prevail late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. MVFR
ceilings will return near the end of the TAF period, AOA sunset
Saturday evening. SE-SSE winds at 10-15 knots will prevail early
this morning, veering to the S and increasing to 15-25 knots AOA
sunrise. Winds are expected to shift to the NE at 15-20 knots AOA
sunset Saturday evening.




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