FXUS63 KGLD 141545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
945 AM MDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Issued at 944 AM MDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Dense fog advisory expired and forecast has been updated to
reflect this change.

UPDATE Issued at 524 AM MDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Updated forecast to include a Dense Fog Advisory for southwestern
Nebraska and our eastern Colorado counties till 9 AM MDT.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the short term forecast period, the first main focus will be
areas of fog impacting the Tri-State area through the early morning.
Fog may cause reductions in visibility through sunrise and into the
early morning hours. Some areas may see periods of quarter mile
visibility or less, but it is not expected to persist for an
extended period of time.

For the rest of today and tonight, training thunderstorms will
continue to develop and move across the eastern half of our CWA.

Currently, water vapor imagery shows a well defined upper level low
over the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Today, the low will continue to
lift and move away from us. Looking at guidance, marginal shear and
CAPE, and high PWATs 1.5 to 1.75" show more than enough to maintain
showers for the eastern half of our CWA during peak heating this
afternoon. Severe weather is not expected at this time, however,
flash flooding could be a concern this afternoon.

Once convection dies down, expecting another round of patchy fog
tonight. Conditions will be more favorable than tonight, and a Dense
Fog Advisory may need to be issued.

Wednesday, a shortwave will pass over our western CWA, and that will
aid some showers and storms to develop. Severe weather is not
expected, but an isolated storm or two could become severe. Moist
mid-level lapse rates, CAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg, effective bulk
shear of 30-40 kts, in tandem with daily diabatic heating could
cause damaging wind and hail.

Thursday could see similar weather as Wednesday, but depends mainly
on how strong upslope flow to the area will be. Expecting us to be
fairly unstable, but the main driving factor for convection will be
daytime heating. Could see some severe storms with isolated large
hail and downburst winds.

Temperatures, for the short term period, will be cooler today only
climbing in the mid 70s to lower 80s. With a warming trend
Wednesday and Thursday with daily highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Lows will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Active weather continues into the extended period with precipitation
chances each day and near to below normal temperatures.

On Friday, northwest flow persists over the region as upper ridging
over the western CONUS slowly pushes east. Disturbances track
through the flow and generate chances for showers and storms from
the afternoon through the overnight hours into Saturday.

A more pronounced shortwave moves from the Rockies to the central
Plains late Saturday through Sunday, breaking down the ridge and
bringing good chances of thunderstorms to the forecast. Drier and
cooler air moves into the region early next week as the wave exits
to the Midwest, with slight precipitation chances lingering on the
backside Monday.

Temperatures gradually cool throughout the period, with highs mainly
in the upper 80s on Friday and in the low 80s on Monday. Low
temperatures range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 524 AM MDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Terminals will see sub-VFR conditions this morning due to patchy
fog across the Tri-State area. Fog is expected to lift after 9 AM
MDT / 10 AM CDT, but lower decks will hang around the terminals
throughout most of the day. Additionally, expecting thunderstorms
possible through this afternoon. Confidence on timing of showers
and storms is low at this time, and amendments will be issued as
convection becomes better defined.




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