FXUS63 KGRB 060749
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
249 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IN SHORT-TERM AS LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS IN
PLACE THRU MONDAY. SEVERAL SHRTWV TROFS MOV ACROSS STATE DURING
PERIOD. FIRST IS EXITING THIS MORNING WHICH IS NICELY DEPICTED BY
IR IMAGERY. BACK EDGE OF SCT SHOWERS MOVG ACRS FCST AREA ATTM.
MAINTAINED SMALL POP ACROSS FAR NORTH TODAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CYCLONIC FLOW. INTERESTING TO
NOTE LINE OF STORMS THAT FORMED ACROSS LK MICHIGAN THIS EARLY AM.
EVEN ISOLATED CELL FORMED OVER BAY NEAR CHAMBERS ISLAND A BIT
EARLIER.

NEXT SHRTWV OVR NEBRASKA TO AFFECT STATE SUNDAY. BOTH 06/00Z NAM
AND GFS SIMILAR WITH TIMING...MAINLY A SUNDAY MID-MORNING THRU
EVENING EVENT FOR FCST AREA. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THIS
WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN SYSTEM MOVG OUT OF WI PRESENTLY...AND
MODELS INDICATE THIS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE... KINEMATICS ASSOC WITH SYSTEM IS. THINK OVER A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODELS HINT AT JUST
ENUF INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESP GIVEN FORCING.

FCST MAX/MIN TEMPS IN LINE WITH 06/00Z GFS MOS...SO LITTLE CHANGE
NEEDED THERE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER PATTERN TO SHIFT
TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY TUE...BUT UNTIL THEN SHORT WAVES
SHIFTING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW OVER REGION TO CONTINUE PCPN
CHANCES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BUILDS IN WITH TEMPS MODERATING...BACK TOWARD NORMAL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME INSTABILITY INTO SUN NIGHT TO KEEP THUNDER GOING INTO THE
EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO THE
SOUTH OF AREA...WITH WAA PATTERN SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN WI. BOTH
NCEP MODELS INDICATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH
OF FRONT OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TRENDED
POPS HIGHER SOUTH THIS PERIOD. WITH CLOUDS/PCPN AND 850 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +3 HAVE LOWERED TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
ON MON. GFS 2M TEMPS SUGGEST UPPER 50S.
&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY SUN. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WITH SCT SHOWERS WITH SUNDAY SYSTEM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
JKL/TE



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