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FXUS63 KGRB 250330
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1030 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Short wave trough and surface cold front will try
to conspire to produce scattered showers later this afternoon and
evening despite dry air in the low levels. Whatever scattered showers
do materialize should dissipate overnight with clearing by daybreak.
Lows tonight will be coldest where there is still snow on the
ground. Sunny and mild weather is expected Wednesday, with highs
close to normal.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

After a quiet Wednesday night, a shortwave trough/cold front will
begin to push towards the area from the northwest. This shortwave
trough/cold front will enter the area late Thursday afternoon
bringing chances for rain to start, transitioning to a mix or all
snow, before exiting to the southeast Friday morning. The best
chance for precipitation would be Thursday night. Model guidance
is in agreement with the timing and evolution of this system,
however, the ECMWF has continued its trend from yesterday of a
weaker cold front, resulting in less precipitation for the area.
A small chance for rain showers is also possible across the region
Friday afternoon, due to a weak disturbance.

Conditions will remain fairly quiet for the upcoming weekend with
a ridge of high pressure building into the area. Temperatures
will rise above normal beginning Monday with highs in the lower
70s. Cooler temperatures will remain along the lakeshore in the
lower 60s.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Light showers continue along a cold front that is slowly moving
through the area. This activity should end in the next few hours
with clearing skies once the front moves out of the region. Also
in the wake of the front some fog has developed across north-
central Wisconsin. At this time it appears the fog will reduce
conditions to MVFR, with LIFR conditions possible at times. It is
difficult to deduce which locations will fall as not all locations
upstream of the front have fallen like the locations in north-
central. Therefore will bring down the north-central TAF sites the
most, with more conservative conditions further south. However it
is possible the fog could develop everywhere, especially where it
rained. After the fog clears VFR conditions are expected for the
rest of the TAF period.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

River levels continue to rise from the snow melt runoff. A few
rivers have already reached minor flood stage, with many others
forecast to reach or exceed bankfull this week. There are a few
chances of rain this week, this afternoon/evening and then again
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Neither system will
generate much rainfall, so runoff will mainly be from melting
snow. The upcoming weekend looks dry as well.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Hykin
AVIATION.......Kurimski
HYDROLOGY......RDM
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