FXUS63 KGRB 051004
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
404 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERN.

A S/W TROF BRUSHING PAST TO OUR NE HAS HELPED TO PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PARTS OF CWAIN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT WERE HAVING
A HARD TIME SPREADING INTO CENTRAL WI. A LARGE EXPANSE OF VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WAS ALSO SITUATED OVER MN...AND WAS STARTING TO
CROSS THE WI BORDER.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE CURRENT BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OUT OF GRB CWA.
THIS IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE RUC MODEL. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE STRATUS OVER MN WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MODELS DO NOT HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND DON'T OFFER MUCH ASSISTANCE WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE
FCST. WOULD TEND TO BELIEVE THAT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
DECK WOULD ERODE DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING...BUT LIKELY REFORM TONIGHT...
AND EDGE INTO NC/C WI. STIFF WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS (25-30 KTS
AT 925 MB) SHOULD PREVENT THE STRATUS FROM REACHING NE/EC WI.
BASED ON LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL ONLY MENTION PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR NC/C WI TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS DROPPING INTO
NC/NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI
LATE IN THE DAY.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WEST OF THE ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM LAKE EFFECT
DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. COLDER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...EVEN ON
THE COLDEST NIGHTS AND DAYS.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH AN
ASSIST FROM A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD COME TO AN
END EARLY ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

RETURN FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...UNTIL ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLDER AIR IMPACTS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE LOW END CHANCE OR HIGH END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE LAKESHORE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS HAVE PUSHED INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
WI...WHERE SKIES ARE STILL CLEAR. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO EVENTUALLY
PULL OUT TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS OVER MN
AND FAR WSTRN WI COULD MAKE A RUN AT NC/C WI LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
KIECKBUSCH/MG



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