FXUS63 KGRB 211654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1154 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Low clouds will continue to gradually clear from west to east as a
ridge of high pressure arrives this morning. Otherwise, a band of
mid-level clouds is expected to overspread at least northern WI
from mid-morning to early afternoon. Southwest winds will develop
after the ridge axis shifts to our east, and this will bring
milder air into the region. Highs should reach the 40s to around
50 degrees.

Mostly clear skies and light winds are anticipated tonight, along
with low temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s, except
middle 30s near Lake Michigan.

A dry cold front will move into the region on Monday, with only
an increase in clouds expected across north central WI during the
afternoon. Mixing and compressional heating ahead of the front
should boost highs into the 50s to around 60 degree range.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Expect generally quiet weather with below normal temperatures
through Thursday evening as upper level flow continues to be from
the northwest.

A closed 500 mb, off the coast of California this morning, is
forecast to become an open wave and then make its way toward
region during the week. Precipitation chances enter the picture
late in the week with the approach of the trough as well as a
surface low and its associated frontal boundaries. The 00Z models
had some consistency issues by this time, so have left the initial
blended solution alone. This resulted in a chance for snow and/or
rain across the far northeast corner of Wisconsin late Thursday
night. Precipitation chances enter central and north-central
Wisconsin late Friday night and then spread across the entire area
on Saturday. Snow or mixed precipitation Friday night should
change to all rain relatively early Saturday morning.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southwest
winds with gusts reaching 15 to 20 knots are expected in the
afternoon. Winds will diminish tonight as they veer to more of a
westerly direction. As for clouds, the mid-level clouds will exit
this afternoon, leaving mostly clear conditions for tonight and
Monday morning. Clouds to increase Monday afternoon over far
northern WI.




SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
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