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FXUS63 KGRB 101126
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
526 AM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday
Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

Despite the last few nights, low clouds have not developed across
northeast Wisconsin. This has allowed temperatures to plummet into
the single digits across much of central and north-central
Wisconsin early this morning. Despite the lack of clouds
currently, there is an area of clouds advecting in from western
Wisconsin as well as some signs on the GOES-16 GeoColor satellite
imagery that low clouds are trying to form across Clark County.
Therefore will develop clouds across the western cwa later this
morning given the trends on satellite imagery. High temperatures
later today should top out in the middle to upper 20s under a mix
of clouds and sun, with more sun out to the east and more clouds
out to the west.

A weak low pressure system passing to the north will bring an
increase in clouds across north-central Wisconsin, however the
weather is expected to stay dry as this system will not have much
in the way of moisture and lift associated with it. Lows tonight
will generally be 10 to 15 degrees, with upper teens near the
lakeshore.

By Tuesday high pressure builds back in across the area with
partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs on Tuesday will once again be
in the middle to upper 20s across the region, with a few 30 degree
readings possible across the northeast.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

Forecast concerns mainly revolve around precip chances on Wednesday
and Wednesday night. The ecmwf tracks the system farther south than
other guidance including the nam, gfs, and canadian. Will therefore
rely more on the consensus than the ecmwf. In general, split flow
will lead to quiet conditions and slightly above normal temps over
the period.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Though some clouds may
linger over Door County at the start of Tuesday evening, think most
locations will be mostly clear to begin the night. Then will see
mid and high clouds increase late Tuesday night ahead of a Pacific
system that will be heading towards the region from the west. This
system will give the region the next chance of widespread precip from
late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Forecast precip
amounts continue to look relatively light and should fall mainly as
snow except over eastern WI where rising temps into the middle 30s
could cause rain to mix in with the snow at times. Areas over
central to north-central WI could see accumulations up to an inch in
total. As the system exits Wednesday night, lingering low level
moisture may lead to spotty freezing drizzle developing. No
significant changes to temps.

Rest of the forecast...Then a northern stream shortwave could create
some light snow or flurries over far northern WI on Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night. Again, any accumulations look very
minor. Thereafter, the next chance of light precip will occur late
in the weekend after a couple dry and mild days on Friday and
Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 526 AM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

Although it took longer than the last few nights, the IFR/LIFR
stratus has developed across the western TAF sites early this
morning with patchy/areas of fog. This stratus and fog is expected
to dissipate somewhere in the late morning or early afternoon.
Models continue to indicate the eastern TAF sites should stay
clear of this low stratus this morning.

The models once again develop a stratus deck with some fog later
tonight across the western TAF sites. Given the track record of
this developing the last several days will develop another stratus
deck across the west later this evening and into the overnight
hours.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Kurimski
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