FXUS63 KGRB 152024
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 PM CDT MON MAR 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERN IS SKY COVER
AND TEMPS.

A S/W TROF WILL PASS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS AGREE THAT
PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER MN AND WSTRN WI. THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF NC/C WI.

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...WENT A BIT BLO GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT. MIXING THROUGH 875-850 MB ON TUESDAY SHOULD YIELD
MAX TEMPS IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE...BUT LGT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
LKSHR AREAS A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS
ARE MILD TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THEN PCPN CHCS/TIMING/TYPE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...
WITH THE WARMEST DAY ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY. MIXING THROUGH AROUND
850 MB (H8 TEMPS AROUND 5-6 C)...PLUS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ON THURSDAY IN PARTS OF C/NE/EC WI. WENT WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

PCPN TRENDS ARE STILL A LITTLE UNSETTLED DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER VARYING SOLNS...WITH LESS THAN STELLAR
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. THE GFS STILL SHOWS SPLIT FLOW...WITH STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CAUSING DEEP CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND PCPN LINGERING OVER THE RGN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF...WHICH IS GENERALLY PREFERRED BY HPC (ALONG WITH A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS)...IS STILL MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AND IS FOCUSING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER OUR
SE COUNTIES FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY. THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN (00Z/15)
SHOWED A SFC LOW AND STG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NGT...FOLLOWED
BY A STG UPPER LOW MOVG THROUGH WI ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT SOLN. BASED ON THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY...DIDN'T MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS/WX OVER THE
WEEKEND. ONE THING THAT DOES SEEM CERTAIN IS THAT WE'LL TREND
BACK TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
OVER NC WI LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED OVER PARTS
OF NC/C WI LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
KIECKBUSCH



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