FXUS63 KGRR 050902
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
402 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(402 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012)
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EACH DAY. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY TROUGH MONDAY.
CHANGES WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION THAT WILL LAST INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR MID WEEK...HOWEVER ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
LIMITED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND AN ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS COLDER REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(402 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012)
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
A STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. IT HAS REACHED A WHITEHALL TO CLARE LINE AS OF 08Z. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE CWA...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD ALSO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS THEY DO SO.
THEN BY MID DAY COMPLETELY EXIT THE REGION. SO WILL START MOST
AREAS BUT THE FAR SOUTH WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WERE PUSHING IN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...SO TODAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SATURDAY/S. UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON MONDAY SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S AGAIN.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER LIMITED INITIALLY
WITH THIS FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES AS THE
FRONT COMES IN. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...OR NEAR NORMAL VALUES. THE MODELS
ARE TRENDING TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING ALONG THE FRONT WITH A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY. THIS STILL
DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT AS THESE FEATURES COME
TOGETHER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW ON
TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED LOW CHC POPS TO THIS AREA FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(402 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
NO BIG STORMS IN THE EXTENDED BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ARCTIC AIR RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH A WAVE ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IT APPEARS THIS
FEATURE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE BY THURSDAY AS CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE BELOW 10 KFT THROUGH THE EVENT SO A WIDESPREAD HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(1150 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2012)
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR
FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WERE ADVANCING SOUTH THROUGH
LOWER MI THIS EVENING. NORTHERN TAFS KGRR AND KMKG HAVE ALREADY
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CLOUD BANK MOVING IN. FURTHER SOUTH
FOG WILL FORM BY 10Z GIVEN THE VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING GOING
ON. STILL A RISK FOR IFR...BUT TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON ON SUNDAY.

AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
FLOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...(402 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012)
A LIGHT NW WIND IS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE TODAY. WAVES WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE. BUT BY LATE TONIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. WE MAY NEED A SCA LATE TONIGHT OR AT
LEAST BY EARLY MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING WINDS AND
WAVES. THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP WAVES
ON THE HIGHER SIDE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(402 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012)
LIMITED HYDRO CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DUE TO MINIMAL PCPN.
SNOW MELT OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WILL CONTINUE...BUT THIS WILL NOT
PUSH RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS: JK
SHORT TERM: JK
LONG TERM: OSTUNO
AVIATION: MJS
MARINE: JK
HYDROLOGY: JK








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