FXUS63 KGRR 141550
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010

LATEST UPDATE...SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(1150 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010)
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF CLOUDY AND WET
WEATHER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STORM MAY BRING RAIN AND SNOW
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1150 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010)
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
LOWERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THAT SHOW
LIGHT PRECIP CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP PERSISTING THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD NOT SEE TEMPS RISE MUCH MORE ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES. REST OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MONDAY NOW APPEARS TO START OFF CLOUDY CWA-WIDE...BUT CLEARING
SHOULD START FROM THE NW BY MID DAY AND PROGRESS TO THE SE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY...LARGELY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING. SOME TEMPS MAY APPROACH 60
IN THE SUNNIER NW...WHILE THE CLOUDIER SE MAY ONLY STRUGGLE TO REACH
50.

EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AS
UPPER RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR ALL OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(440 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ONE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS...THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AREA. STRONGER RIDGING ARRIVES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THURSDAY. WITH A COLD LAKE TO OUR WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE HELD DOWN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE. STILL ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TUE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(745 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010)
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST DEALS WITH THE COVERAGE
AND DURATION OF THE IFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE REGION. AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE STORM OFF THE EAST COAST...LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
WILL PERSIST HERE IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. RADAR SHOWS THE DRIZZLE IN
PATCHES...AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLOUD BASES OCCASIONALLY
CLIMBING TO MVFR. THUS MOST TAF SITES WILL FEATURE A TEMPO GROUP
THIS MORNING...BUT OUTSIDE OF KMKG...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON COMPUTER DATA SUGGESTS BASES MAY RISE TO
MVFR...HOWEVER THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...(440 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010)
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS
OF EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM WITH SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(440 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010)
DESPITE THE LINGERING LIGHT PCPN...LITTLE ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PCPN
IS EXPECTED. RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREST LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE DRY WEATHER THAT IS EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK
WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI....NONE.
LM....NONE.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS: OSTUNO
SHORT TERM: JK/OSTUNO
LONG TERM: MJS
AVIATION: MJS
MARINE: JK
HYDROLOGY: JK


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