FXUS62 KGSP 191046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
646 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Cool surface high pressure will continue to build into the area
today, and then linger well into the weekend. This will allow
temperatures to gradually warm again through the weekend and into
early next week.


As of 645 AM EDT Thursday: Main update for the 12Z TAF issuance
along with minor adjustments made to temperatures/sky cover to
coincide with latest trends. Otherwise, the near term forecast
remains well on track.

With current temperatures in the mid 60s and lower 70s, the
temperature forecast continues to be a tricky one this morning, with
persistent widespread cloud cover across the FA, with the exception
of areas along and east of the I-77 corridor, where clouds have
scattered out. As a result, min temperatures this morning will
remain a few degrees above normal.

Aside from patchy areas of mountain valley fog this morning, dry and
quiet conditions are expected today and tonight, as cool, sfc high
pressure continues to wedge down in place across the Carolinas. With
light northeast winds expected through the forecast period, clouds
will gradually decrease in opacity throughout the day today as drier
air infiltrates into the area. Max temperatures this afternoon will
cap off at or just below normal.


As of 300 AM EDT Thursday: Very quiet short term forecast with
upper ridging in place stretching from the Gulf Coast to the Great
Lakes, the remnants of Humberto undergoing extratropical transition
off the New England Coast, and an upper system working across the
northern Rockies as well. Surface high pressure will settle south
from the Mid-Atlantic toward the Carolinas under the confluent NW
flow aloft, moderating as it does so. Increasing thicknesses through
the period plus increasing low-level WAA will lead to a noticeable
warm-up Friday, with highs still a few degrees below normal, into
Saturday, with highs rising a couple of degrees above normal. Dry
through the period.


As of 315 AM EDT Thursday: The Rockies upper system will push east
into the Plains, serving to deamplify the upper ridging and shoving
it back south. The surface high will slide off the NC coast, with
continued low-level WAA. No remarkable pattern change through the
period as temperatures continue to slowly warm late in the weekend
into next week, sort of leveling out Tuesday into Wednesday with
highs 8-10 degrees above seasonal normals, with upper 80s to low 90s
across the Piedmont (just lovely). The front associated with the
former Rockies system will approach the Appalachians late Monday and
could bring some low-end pops to the mountains adjacent to the TN
state line, but most operational guidance has anything of note
falling apart. The front is progged to lay out across the area and
dissipate as a cutoff low forms over the Desert Southwest and
intermittent southern stream waves eject from it into the Plains.
Still nothing of note progged to reach our area through the end of
the period, so with the exception of those low-end pops in the
mountains, continued dry.


At KCLT and elsewhere: With the exception patchy areas of
mountain valley fog this morning, VFR prevails at all TAF sites with
light winds (KAVL currently marginal MVFR cigs). Expect SCT/BKN VFR
cigs at all TAF sites through this this afternoon, with clouds
gradually scattering out this evening. NE winds AOB 10 kts will
prevail through the period, with the exception of SE at KAVL. Patchy
areas of fog will be possible Friday morning, but given lower
confidence, have not introduced attm.

Outlook: Patchy mountain valley fog will possible each morning.
Otherwise expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL Med 77% High 97% High 100% High 87%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:





Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page