FXUS61 KGYX 050745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
245 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DAY OF QUIET WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT MORNING SUNSHINE TO
GIVE WAY TO VARIABLE AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES
BY TO TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE MOST CLOUDINESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE JUST A
SMALL CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SNOW SHOWER IN THE NORTH BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER DURING THE DAY.
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
WEAK OVER-RUNNING PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COULD SEE A
QUICK DUSTING IN SOME AREAS BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN
AN INCH. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS.
LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS IN THE NORTH AND UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY
WITH WARMER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S. WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS IN THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CD FNT MOVES THRU LATE MONDAY NGT WITH NO UPR AIR SUPPORT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE. WRM SW FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NW AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER IN BY DAYBREAK. THE NW FLOW MAY CREATE ISOLD TO MAYBE SCT
-SHSN ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WITH DRY WX
ELSEWHERE. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN ON TUESDAY AS N NW WINDS
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SHOULD GIVE US QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE...WITH ANY CLOUDS LIMITED TO
MOSTLY THE N/MT ZONES WHERE THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLD -SHSN.

THE HIGH GIVES US FAIR SKIES AND LGT WINDS ALLOW FOR VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL GIVE US A VERY CD NGT.
LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO N AND INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND
TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE S.

THE SFC HIGH STAYS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY DESPITE A WEAK UPR LVL
IMPULSE MOVING NE THRU THE REGION. THIS UPR LVL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND MAYBE A -SHSN. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPR LVL TROF MOVES
THRU LATE WEDNESDAY NGT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC HIGH IS REPLACED BY
A WEAK SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF PRODUCING SOME
-SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME LGT ACCUMULATION
PSBL.

BOTH THE UPR LVL AND SFC SYSTEMS MOVE OFF TO THE E THURSDAY NGT
ALLOWING FOR FAIR WX. A CD FNT APPROACHES FROM THE W ON FRIDAY AS A
BROAD DEEP UPR LVL SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
PRODUCING A SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NE. THE CD FNT SLOWLY WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE E COAST BUT IS SLOWED DOWN DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT
RUNNING ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE FNT. A SFC LOW FORMS ALONG THE FNT
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING...THEN STRENGTHENS
AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NGT. THIS
COULD BRING US A SIGNIFICANT PRCP EVENT...POSSIBLY AS SN OR MOSTLY
SN...ESPECIALLY AREAS WELL INLAND.

GENERALLY USED GFS40...HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR MONDAY
NGT AND TUESDAY. USED GMOS FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST... EXCEPT
USED A BLEND OF GFS40 AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...TWO UPR LVL SYSTEMS
MAY BRING SOME -SHSN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGER OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS BRINGING A BETTER CHC OF -SHSN LATE WEDNESDAY NGT
AND THURSDAY WHEN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...W SW WINDS AND SEAS
LIKELY AT SCA LEVELS MONDAY NGT AS A CD FNT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
THE FNT MOVES THRU BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS EASING
UP AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N NW. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT AS CD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATER
DESTABILIZES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND CREATES STRONG MIXING
ALLOWING WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC AS OCCASIONAL GUSTS. WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


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