FXUS61 KGYX 180444 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1144 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019
Low pressure will track south of Cape Cod later tonight into
early Monday and will bring light snow to southern areas. High
pressure dominates the weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. The
next chance of precipitation occurs Wednesday night into
Thursday as low pressure approaches from the south and west.
More Canadian high pressure builds into the region Friday and
Saturday. Low pressure moves up to the New England coastline
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Update...Starting to see dewpoints really increase across Srn NH
now suggesting snow will start shortly if not already ongoing.
Best lift still appears as though it will set up just S of the
forecast area...though will have to watch for any Nwd ticks that
could bring that into the MHT/ASH area.
Previous discussion...A beautiful day across New England as
high pressure crests over the region. A few high cirrus clouds
are just starting to move into Vermont on the leading edge of
the upper level dynamics of our next system. The mainly clear
skies should continue through the first part of the evening,
before the approaching low pushes more clouds int the region
after midnight. Lows will drop to the single digits north with
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A elongated area of low pressure stretching across the southern
Appalachians will move northeastwards crossing the mid Atlantic
and southern New England on Monday. All guidance continues to
put the core of this system to our south moving south of Long
Island and east across the benchmark putting southern New
Hampshire on the northern periphery of the precipitation. Expect
light snow to break out across the region early Monday morning
resulting in a few inches of accumulation along the
Massachusetts border through the end of the day. Dynamics for
this system lie mostly south with fairly modest upward motion
associated with the WAA at precipitation onset being the best
chance for higher precipitation rates, although limited snow
totals are expected. Snow showers will come to an end Monday
night as the system passes to our east over the waters.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to build
eastward on Tuesday. This will allow for chilly temperatures in
the teens north to 20s in the south for daytime highs. Winds
will continue to be gusty from the northwest as well.
The ridge will crest over our forecast area on Wednesday. 12Z
model suite in relatively good agreement with the forecast
details with a weak area of low pressure forming along the Mid
Atlantic coastline Wednesday night. The system will likely track
near the Cape Cold Canal Thursday morning. The system will be a
fast mover, however several inches of snow can be expected in
New Hampshire and Maine within a brief period of strong warm air
The precipitation may end as a brief period of light rain or
sleet as it winds down Thursday, however this will mainly be a
More high pressure will build into the region Friday and
Saturday. Mixed precipitation is then expected late in the
weekend. Low pressure will cross over the eastern Great Lakes as
a secondary area of low pressure develops along the southern New
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term... VFR conditions across the region as high pressure
slowly moves eastwards. By early morning most sites will
transition to MVFR as clouds lower ahead of the low passing to
our south. Monday morning look for mainly MVFR in SHSN for
southern New Hampshire and into southwest Maine, however a brief
period of IFR is possible in the late morning. The system will
then exit to the east returning us to VFR by late Monday night.
Long Term...Areas of IFR conditions developing in lowering
ceilings and snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
Short Term...High pressure will move east through the Gulf of
Maine today. A low will pass south of the waters on Monday with
northwesterly flow developing behind it.
Long Term...SCAs possible along the outer waters Tuesday and
again Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Very high astronomical tides will occur this week, peaking at
11.6 feet midweek. A relatively weak system may be sufficient to
bring a few locations to flood stage from Portland and points
south along the coast during the midday high tide Thursday.
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