FXUS61 KGYX 150254
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1054 PM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF CAPE COD TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
OCEANIC STREAM OF EASTERLY FLOW WILL TARGET EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS
DOWNED TREES GO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW HAMPSHIRE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW HAVE
FALLEN...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN
SOUTHERN AREAS IN SOME FORM FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX
OF RAIN AND WET SNOW MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING FOR
MINIMAL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY DAY WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE OCEAN STORM SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO SEA AS PRPC ENDS FROM N TO S
EARLY MONDAY NGT...WITH SOME RA OR WET SN PSBL SRN MOST AREAS...
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM N TO S. GENERALLY FAIR AND MILD WX
TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY. A WEAK CFP WEDNESDAY NGT AND THURSDAY WITH
THE FNT RETURNING N AS A WRM FNT THURSDAY NGT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY
KICK OFF ISOLD TO PSBL SCT -SHRA OR -SHSN. ACTIVITY MOSTLY
CONFINED TO MORE NRN AREAS WITH VERY LIMITED QPF. NEXT SIGNIFICANT
PRPC EVENT PSBL ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE INTO CENTRAL
CANADA AND A TRAILING CD FNT MOVES TOWARD THE ERN U.S.

GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR MONDAY NGT THRU
TUESDAY NGT THOUGH DID GO A LITTLE WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY. GENERALLY USED GMOS...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE MIN
TEMPS WITH ANY PRPC AND TO ALSO RAISE SKY COVER FOR ANY PRCP...FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF MONDAY...IMPROVING LATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...CIG AND VSBY IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S EARLY MONDAY NGT. OTRW VFR THOUGH WEAK CD FNT
MOVING S THEN RETURNING N AS A WRM FNT MAY BRING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MORE NRN ZONES WEDNESDAY NGT THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND
GALES FOR THE BAYS. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY
LET UP MONDAY NGT AS THE OCEAN STORM PULLS AWAY. STILL LIKELY TO
SEE GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND SCA CONDITIONS OVER
THE BAYS THRU MON NGT. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY
NGT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. SEAS ALSO EASE UP...BUT VERY SLOWLY
AND MOST LIKELY REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS THRU WEDNESDAY NGT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WE ARE CONTINUING SMALL STREAM FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...BASICALLY FROM
THE LAKES REGION SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IN YORK COUNTY OF MAINE. THE
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING MANY SMALL STREAMS OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WARNINGS FOR MAINSTEM RIVER FORECAST POINTS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE INCLUDE THE
PRESUMPSCOT AT WESTBROOK...THE LAMPREY AT NEWMARKET...THE
CONTOOCOOK AT HENNIKER...THE SUNCOOK AT NORTH CHICHESTER...AND THE
WARNER AT DAVISVILLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WITH LARGE WAVES OBSERVED AT NEARSHORE
BUOYS AND A HIGH TIDE OF 9.3 IN PORTLAND HARBOR AT 1135 PM TONIGHT...WE
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SPLASH-OVER ALONG COASTAL ROCKINGHAM AND YORK
COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY
MORNING IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE/MARINE/STJEAN



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