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FXUS64 KHGX 232054
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
354 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Beta is now a post tropical system and has moved off to LA. Looking
at the latest radar loop, looking like all associated rain is just
about out of SETX, which for most of us in the CWA could not happen
fast enough. Rain fall totals over the past few days reached over 12
inches in some areas. Well, happy to say, no rain in the forecast
right now. Looking to see some foggy conditions tonight in some
areas in the northern counties and could reach the some of the
southern counties as well in the morning. Tonight, lows are looking
to be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow the skies are expected to
start breaking out and should see some sun. With humidity dropping
to around 54% and mixed with the light northwesterly breeze, its
looking like a pleasant day for SETX.

35

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

On this first full day of astronomical autumn, a potential taste of
fall-like weather is in the cards for SE Texas in the form of a cold
front which looks to approach the area by the middle of next week.
For the time being, however, we enter into a period of relatively
benign and dry weather heading into the weekend. In the wake of
Beta's departure, broad surface high pressure over the southeastern
CONUS and light offshore winds should provide for a fairly pleasant
weekend. Global models continue to indicate the development of a
cutoff upper low over Western/SW Texas by late Friday, with an
associated jet streak at 250mb increasing in strength by early
Saturday. With much of the CWA within the left front quadrant of
this speed max, this would normally point to additional rainfall
developing over the weekend given the favorable divergence aloft
that this pattern provides. However, the drier airmass in place over
the region (surface PWs will remain around 1-1.25") should inhibit
widespread development of showers and storms. In general, look for
seasonable highs through the end of the weekend (mid to upper 80s)
with dew points in the upper 60s. All in all, a fairly pleasant
reprieve following the substantial rain over the past few days.

With surface high pressure shifting eastward towards the end of the
weekend a return to an onshore flow pattern should come by Monday.
Despite this, the expectedly weak pressure gradient should prevent a
surge of low-level Gulf moisture from reaching the coast, keeping
dew points in the high 60s to lower 70s. Highs should rebound
somewhat by the early part of the week, with most locations due to
approach 90 degrees once again on Monday. Meanwhile, by Monday
afternoon, a cold front extending from a deepening surface low over
the Great Plains region looks to push into the central CONUS,
eventually making its way into the Southern Plains by Tuesday. This
looks to be our first real front of substance this season, with both
GFS and ECMWF solutions indicating a stronger frontogenesis signal
in the 850-700mb layer than in previous FROPAs over the past few
weeks. While confidence in the timing of this feature is low, the
boundary should traverse SE TX on late Tuesday and into Wednesday,
with northerly winds in its wake providing a surge of cooler and
drier air. With guidance indicating the potential for dew points
in the 40s by Wednesday afternoon, things could certainly feel
fall- like by mid-week. After the tropical season we've had thus
far, I imagine this will be a welcome change!

Cady

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Beta is now out of the area but has left behind a lot of moisture to
say the least. MVFR conditions across the TAF sites and some could
see VFR conditions over night, at least briefly. Late tonight and
tomorrow morning, lower stratus is expected to form bringing in the
IFR and LIFR conditions to the northern TAF sites. The southern
flying areas are expected ceilings in the 015 area and the northern
areas could see below 005. By late morning, most of the ceilings
will scatter out and dissipate and by tomorrow afternoon, VFR
conditions should prevail. Thursday night is looking prime for
stratus and or fog forming, especially in the northern flying
areas.

35

&&

.MARINE...

Remnants of Beta continue to move northeast over the Louisiana/Lower
Mississippi River tonight into Friday. This flow pattern will keep
moderate northwest winds gusting from 15 to 20 knots at times this
evening. Seas will gradually decrease to 2 - 4 feet. With that said,
will continue SCEC flags for all nearshore and offshore waters until
early Thursday morning. Conditions will improve late tonight into
the weekend with winds and seas falling below headline criteria.
Light offshore winds and seas up to 3 feet are expected through next
week.

In terms of coastal conditions, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect until 7AM Thursday for the Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston
Island and Matagorda Island. This is due to persisting moderate
offshore flow and a potential for minor coastal flooding near the
time of high tide late tonight. Conditions should improve early
Thursday morning with no coastal flood issues expected at this time.

05

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall has departed and the water levels in the river and bayou
systems are doing the same. San Bernard still creeping up in few
locations and may get into flood near East Bernard with a small
second rise tonight/Thu morning. Boling has crested in flood and
starting a slow fall while downstream at Old Ocean the updated
forecast does not reach flood now but crests above bankfull shy of
flood by about half a foot. Down in Matagorda county on the Tres
Palacios it just dropped below flood near Midfield. Clear creek the
levels continue to steadily fall and only a shrinking area below
FM528 is still in flood but these too are falling steadily.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 64 80 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 82 65 85 67 / 0 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 83 72 82 75 / 0 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 7 PM CDT this evening
through Thursday morning for the following zones: Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.


&&

$$
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