FXUS64 KHGX 232354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
654 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Not a lot of changes with the 00Z TAFS from previous. Tomorrow
(and Friday) should be transition days (of sorts) as the upper
ridge begins to build in from the west. Patchy fog/brief lower
CIGS will be possible tonight/early Thursday morning given the
clearing skies/light winds/wet grounds at our usual sites (CXO
and LBX), with generally VFR elsewhere. Low convective temper-
atures, lingering moisture and the seabreeze will help produce
scattered showers once again...starting early/mid morning near
the coast then working inland from late morning on through the
remainder of the afternoon (with IAH as the furtherest north).


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Current radar imagery shows scattered thunderstorms further
inland this afternoon from Burleson east into Walker County, while
remnant showers remain situated further south to along the coast.
Occasionally, an isolated shower or thunderstorm has developed
over the Gulf waters before pushing inland, and expect this trend
to continue into the evening. Overall motion of the precipitation
is towards the northwest. A consensus of the short term model
guidance hints at most of the precipitation dissipating shortly
after sunset. The upper-level disturbance that has remained
situated over southeast Texas today will translate eastward
through the overnight hours. Winds will become light and variable
tonight as a region of surface high pressure builds in. Upper-
level ridging will also shift east into central Texas Thursday
morning. This will help to lower precipitable water values (PWs)
Thursday and into the beginning of the weekend, with PWs falling
to between 1.4-1.6 inches. This will allow for less overall
coverage of showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the
week, though the chance for precipitation will still be possible.


LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The main weather threat heading into the weekend will be
abnormally warm conditions. The upper-level ridge that nudges
into the region earlier in the week will push overhead into the
weekend. Therefore, as we move into the holiday weekend, conditions
will become very warm for this time of year. Relative humidity
values should reach into the 90s and high temperatures are
forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s. Sunday apparent temperatures
should range between 98-103 degrees. The apparent temperature or
"heat index" is defined as an approximation of how hot it "feels"
for a given combination of air temperature and relative humidity.
Expecting apparent temperatures to remain high between 98-103
degrees through the middle of next week. As a result, these
unseasonable warm conditions will flirt with record high
temperatures. Record high maximum temperatures for this weekend
are listed in the Climate Section below.


Light to moderate southerly winds along with low seas will continue
through the end of the week. Light southwest to west winds are
anticipated over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue to be possible. Boaters with interests in the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the forecasts for possible
storm formation at the end of the week or over the weekend. 42

Abnormally warm weather will flirt with record high temperatures
this weekend and into the beginning of next week. Forecast high
temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees above normal for this time of
year. The table below shows the record high maximum temperatures
at our primary climate site locations, previously recorded on
their appropriate dates.

Site Date Previous Record

CLL 5/27 High Max Temp-101 in 1906
IAH 5/27 High Max Temp-98 in 1928
HOU 5/27 High Max Temp-97 in 1973
GLS 5/27 High Max Temp-90 in 1922

CLL 5/28 High Max Temp-100 in 1906
IAH 5/28 High Max Temp-98 in 1906
HOU 5/28 High Max Temp-97 in 2010
GLS 5/28 High Max Temp-90 in 2010

CLL 5/29 High Max Temp-100 in 1996
IAH 5/29 High Max Temp-99 in 1996
HOU 5/29 High Max Temp-97 in 1998
GLS 5/29 High Max Temp-90 in 1959

CLL 5/30 High Max Temp-99 in 2003
IAH 5/30 High Max Temp-97 in 2003
HOU 5/30 High Max Temp-99 in 1998
GLS 5/30 High Max Temp-91 in 2011



College Station (CLL) 70 89 72 91 71 / 20 20 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 72 89 73 91 72 / 20 30 20 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 77 86 76 85 78 / 20 30 20 30 10



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