FXUS64 KHGX 090957
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...YESTERDAY'S REINFORCING
DRIER AIR MASS ALLOWING THIS MORNING'S MINIMUMS TO COME IN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING'S VALUES. DRY ONCE AGAIN TODAY
WITH CONTINUED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...VEERING 925MB-SFC WINDS
TO ONSHORE BY SUNSET...AND THE PM HOURS SLOWLY WARMING BACK INTO THE
AVERAGE LOWER 60S. THIS RECENTLY (SOMEWHAT) STAGNANT PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION INTO A WET FRIDAY...WITH A SERIES OF ANTICIPATED RAIN
EVENTS TIMED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FULL ENSEMBLE ALL AGREE THAT TODAY'S ENERGY EVOLVING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL COME ACROSS THE STATE AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH.
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING UP WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...OR
AHEAD OF THE BAJA REGION CUT-OFF LOW...WILL INCREASE EARLY THROUGH
MID-FRIDAY POPS TO LIKELY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO SHOWERY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AS LOBES OF HEIGHTENED PVA STREAM OVER EASTERN TEXAS (THIS
BREWING ENERGY DEPICTED PER W/V IMAGERY ENERGY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO)...WITH AREA FALLING UNDER THE EVER-FAVORABLE LF JET QUAD
DURING 06-18Z FRIDAY. 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH PWATS DOUBLING BY THIS
TIME TOMORROW WILL SATURATE THE COLUMN ENOUGH...WITH EFFICIENT
85H LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT UPGLIDE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON THE 295K THETA SURFACE (WITH LOW
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS) FROM 06 THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW
THAT WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY -RA. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EAST OF THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE MID-SURFACE
BOUNDARY THROUGH BY 00Z SAT. THE BACKING AIR MASS CLIPPING US
WILL BE OF INTERIOR CANADIAN ORIGIN SO...WITH 85H TEMPS LOWERING
TO NEAR 5C AND SUB 0.5 INCH PWATS...WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE COOLEST DAY
WITH MORNING 40S ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE GOOD
NEWS WILL BE THAT EARLY MARDI GRAS FESTIVITIES ON THE ISLAND WILL
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER THE BAJA REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SHEAR OUT...WITH ITS RESIDUAL ENERGY COMING UP AND OVER
TEXAS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHALLOW TROUGH PASSAGE IS
FORECAST TO LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH ISOLATED STORMS
THROWN INTO THE MIX BASED STRICTLY ON THE HIGHER AREAS OF PVA
ADVECTION DURING 00-06Z MONDAY. THE THIRD TROUGH IN THE SERIES
IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE LONE STAR WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY
MODELED TO PACK MORE OF A PUNCH FROM A FRONTOGENESIS/MESO-FORCING
STAND-POINT. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS DEEPER TROUGH HAS
HIGHER PROBS OF THUNDER OCCURRENCE DURING THIS MID-WEEK TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE VALUES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
FROM A COOLER AND DRIER START TO THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MX/MN TEMP BEHAVIOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES...BOOK-ENDED BY RAIN EVENTS...WILL MOSTLY
LIKELY INITIATE A MINI-SPRING LIKE FEEL TO THINGS...NOT ONLY FROM
A WEATHER STAND POINT BUT ALSO FROM THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SEEING MORE NEWLY-BLOOMED PERENNIALS AND MOSQUITOES. 31

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SWING AROUND
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVELS DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT INCREASING RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTM
CHANCES AS THIS OCCURS (PROBABLY BETWEEN 3AM-3PM). COOL FRONT WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE AND MAY NEED SOME CAUTION/ADVSY
FLAGS WELL OFFSHORE LATE FRI AFTN OR EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT
FURTHER TIGHTENS THIS WEEKEND AND A LONG FETCH OF ENE-ESE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE GULF. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING SEAS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY. WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST BUT WINDS/SEAS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DIMINISH. EXPECTING A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING A SHOT OF SHRA/TSTMS - WITH MONDAY & WEDNESDAY BEING
PENCILED IN AS THE MORE ACTIVE DAYS. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THEN EXPECT CIGS TO
GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER MVFR OR HIGH IFR RANGE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED BATCH OF RA/SHRA MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE W/NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEPARTING SE PARTS OF SE TX AFTER 2 PM FRI. 47

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 48 60 43 59 / 10 70 70 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 48 64 48 63 / 10 60 70 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 53 61 52 63 / 10 60 70 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/47





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