FXUS64 KHGX 222341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

The initial wave of convection has mostly pushed off to the east
with remnant showers over the Houston area terminals southward.
MVFR ceilings will prevail through the overnight period as an
additional line of showers and isolated thunderstorms which has
developed from Huntsville down to Wharton along the cold front
moves to the southeast. At this time, it appears as though the
boundary will reach the Metro area terminals between 03 and 06z.
As the boundary passes, winds will shift to the northwest and may
briefly increase. Any secondary showers will end by mid-morning as
MVFR ceilings gradually lift to low-end VFR that will persist
through the afternoon. No additional rainfall is forecast at this
time. 22


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018/

The weak cold front has made it into western portions of SE TX,
and it appears to be from near Madisonville to near Eagle Lake.
Interestingly, the current cluster of convection in Harris and
surrounding counties is being focused by a weak sfc trough out
ahead of the front. Expect to see scattered convection develop
along the front later this evening as it slowly advances
eastward. By early evening, the front should be near a Huntsville
to Katy to Wharton line, so do not expect much if any shwr/tstm
activity west of that line overnight. East of the boundary the
locally heavy rainfall threat continues overnight, and it is still
possible see some isolated areas receive 2 to 3 inches of
additional rainfall.

The front is likely to become diffuse over the eastern third of
the area tomorrow, or stall near the coast. So, I have retained
chance pops across the eastern third of the area and also a
slight chance areawide on Monday. On Tuesday the deep moisture
returns and so does the good chance of rain. This good chance of
rain continues through the work week due to above normal moisture
and continued mid-upper level disturbances moving across the area.
Rain chances will likely decrease with above normal max temperatures
as well next weekend as a mid/upper level ridge expands westward
over SE Texas. 33

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow should persist through
the next several days. A cold front working its way through the area
now could push off the coast for a period this evening, but any wind
direction changes should be short-lived. Otherwise periods of
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the waters for at least
the next several days. 11


College Station (CLL) 69 85 71 88 72 / 10 20 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 72 86 73 88 74 / 60 30 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 78 85 78 86 79 / 60 50 30 30 50




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