FXUS64 KHGX 190538
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020
Showers have moved off the coast in the wake of a cold front. Some
cirrus is moving over the region but low/mid clouds are in the
process of exiting the region with VFR conditions expected for the
next 24 hours. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tomorrow)...
3PM surface analysis shows the cold front bisecting Houston and
stretching along US 59/I-69 from Victoria to Houston and then to
Cleveland. Strongest convection was noted along the coast especially
across Matagorda County where storms have not moved much and rain
rates have been close to 2 inches an hour. Flood advisory has been
issued but wouldn't be surprised if we had to put out a flash flood
warning for areas near Bay City, Sargent Matagorda and stretching
over to Palacios. There are some radar estimates of nearly 5 inches
of rain in the last 3 hours SE of Bay City. This activity is moving
but slowly to the ESE towards the Gulf. The cold front should reach
the coast by around 6PM and further push convection into the Gulf.
Sea fog has eroded over Galveston Bay and that should not be a
problem once the cold front pushes through the area.
Tonight gusty northerly winds will bring drier air with it. Short
term guidance still holds onto some cloud cover overnight with
clearing by day break. Tomorrow will be much cooler and drier than
it has been with low temperatures in the 40s and high temperatures
in the 50s.
LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Saturday]...
A quiet start to the work week is expected with surface high pres-
sure beginning to move off to the east and the ridge aloft starts
to flatten. Onshore winds are set to return by Tues but low-level
moisture may not make its presence known until Tues night (or so).
There are still differences with models with regard to the timing
of this next upper level disturbance approaching from the west at
this time. With about a 6hr difference, GFS remains slightly fast-
er than ECMWF/Canadian with the 12Z runs. However, all the models
do agree that rain chances will be pretty good with the system as
it moves across the region on Weds/Thur. Did not make big changes
with the already high POPs in the grids for this time frame. 41
Sea fog has lifted this afternoon with showers and a few storms
along the coast. A cold front should reach the coast after 6PM and
further purge sea fog from the area. Small craft advisory goes into
effect at 6PM this evening and will run for at least the next couple
of days with strong north to northeast winds. Strong winds and seas
will be a problem for much of the week with an approaching storm
system for the middle of the week. Winds turn to the east during
this time which will help keep seas higher and elevated tide levels
along the coast. A coastal low pressure system may develop Thursday
and push east during the day. A cold front will then push through
late Thursday. This will likely be a prolonged period of hazardous
marine conditions along the Upper Texas Coast.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 37 57 34 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 43 57 38 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 49 57 46 57 48 / 50 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning for the following zones: Galveston
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
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