FXUS64 KHGX 190937
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
437 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019
Not a lot of change with the forecast for the short-term as this
dry/mild weather is expected to persist through rest of the week.
Surface high pressure to the east and a flat zonal flow aloft to
help keep things quiet here. With very limited moisture over the
area (given the dry NE/E low-level flow of late) and the push of
the upper flow/clouds further south, another fairly seasonal day
will be on tap for SE TX the next few days. A weak frontal bound-
ary approaching from the NW late Weds is not expected to produce
any significant precipitation for the CWFA with its passage, but
we should see a reinforcing shot of cool/dry air filter into the
region by Thurs.
Onshore winds are finally progged to return to SE TX by Fri with
the associated surface high moving east of the area and the next
storm system moving off the Rockies, into the Great Plains. With
this system moving quickly off to the NE, the focus will then be
with the next one moving in/developing quickly in its wake. This
second system (and its associated upper trof) is progged to trek
slightly more to the south as it moves east with time. Model PWs
for this time frame are not terribly impressive...but forcing dy-
namics are. As such, will keep with elevated POPs for weekend...
with the higher numbers for the northern counties and lower ones
along the coast. 41
Moderate easterly flow in place with mid 60 temperatures over the
warmer waters. Winds have been a little stronger than most models
predicted as well as higher seas. Will continue the SCA 20-60nm
waters through 02z but this end time is challenging...although winds
should start to relax a bit this afternoon the fetch will like
continue to feed 5-7 foot seas into the area. Otherwise as the weak
boundary sags southward into SETX Wednesday and Wednesday night will
likely see surface winds swing around to the west then become more
variable with weak high drifting over the waters followed by the
weak dry cold front veering winds to the north and strengthening
Thursday. A brief period of SCEC winds possible but not likely with
the passage. Eventually the high over SETX moves eastward and light
southeasterly flow develops Friday strengthening Saturday.
The northeast to easterly winds 5-10 mph will continue today with a
mix of cloud cover with predominately more sun than clouds. RH will
continue on the dry side though probably not quite as low as
yesterdays 23-35 percent range. Transport winds will be primarily
easterly throughout the day with generous mixing heights developing
this afternoon. Greater recovery on tap Wednesday morning and
Thursday morning. Lighter and more variable winds on Wednesday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 46 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 47 73 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 56 68 55 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
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