FXUS64 KHGX 152052
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...
Once lower 90s were achieved this afternoon, ordinary thunderstorms
developed and traveled north-northeast this afternoon. Most of this
activity will remain benign but there could be an isolated
northeastern forecast area thunderstorm cell that could become
strong and put down 30 mph wind gusts and small hail along it's
northern trek. Background onshore winds will remain in the 15 to 25
mph range through the early evening.
A warm, breezy and humid early Sunday morning with increasing
probabilities for early day developing convection. A strengthening
low level jet in response to lowering heights from a shortwave
trough passage will increase slight morning chances to high
end/likely chances by early afternoon. A possible MCS feature over
the Red River Valley could spit out outflow boundaries that would be
entering our northern CWA during peak heating...or a more-structured
storm cluster could be cold pool-driven and track more southeast.
Either way, the northern half of the forecast area has a better than
not chance of experiencing late morning through late afternoon rain
and thunderstorm activity. If convection remains organized enough
then clustering storms could impact Houston metro and move south of
the I-10 corridor by late afternoon. More mid-day overcast and
precipitation will regulate tomorrow's warmth to the upper 80s to
lower 90s. 31
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday evening as an
outflow sags south across the CWA. Some of the stronger storms
could produce strong damaging winds. Any residual activity will
be ending during the evening. Isolated to scattered showers will
be possible for the remainder of the night as SE TX lies on the
east side of an upper level trough over the southern plains.
Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible on Monday as the
the region will remain east of the upper level trough axis and PW
values remain near 2.00 inches. High temperatures should warm into
the lower 90's and convective temps will only be in the upper
80's. The upper level trough will begin to move east Monday night
but this feature will still be close enough to generate some
showers especially over the eastern half of the CWA. Weak capping
will begin to develop on Tuesday as upper level ridging over the
Gulf expands. That said, daytime should remain sufficient to
break the cap by afternoon with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible. Upper level ridging looks stronger on
Wednesday and the ridge will probably remain the dominant weather
feature through next Friday. 850 mb temperatures warm as well so
am expecting a warm up with surface temperatures in the middle
90's over the second half of next week. Subsidence from the
expanding ridge will likely keeps things on the dry side as well.
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds will create minor
coastal run-up during times of high tide and enhance rip current
strength. Gulf Advisory conditions with Bay Cautions through
tomorrow morning. A Beach Hazard Statement will cover both the minor
coastal run up and rip current issues along Galveston Island and the
Bolivar Peninsula. A Rip Current Statement is in effect for points
down coast of San Luis Pass. The onshore pressure gradient will
weaken enough to lower flags going into late Monday or early
Tuesday. This weekend's 4 to 6 foot seas will fall to between 3 to 4
feet by Tuesday afternoon. Re-tightening of the onshore pressure
gradient Thursday will pick southerlies back up to Advisory levels
by that afternoon. 31
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 91 74 89 74 / 20 70 30 50 10
Houston (IAH) 77 91 77 90 77 / 10 60 40 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 79 88 79 87 81 / 30 40 40 50 20
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Sunday afternoon for
the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.
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