FXUS64 KHGX 301119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

VFR conditions have developed. However, the right-rear quadrant of
the jet will help keep a chance of showers and isolated thunder-
storms at KCLL and possibly KUTS through 14Z. Isolated showers may
develop elsewhere but the chances were too low to mention. Radar
coverage and model trends point toward just the far northern

During the late morning through the afternoon, expect winds to
become breezy as the surface pressure gradient tightens over the
area and cold air advection begins in earnest. Models and guidance
have the wind speeds diminishing around sunset. High pressure will
then move overhead tonight and Monday morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

At 3 AM, a cold front had crossed most of the CWA. Rain was still
training over parts of extreme eastern Chambers county but this
precip will be well east of the CWA by sunrise. Some elevated
convection over the Hill Country could also clip parts of the
western CWA but this is also expected to diminish this morning as
a weak disturbance rotating around the upper low over the
panhandle exits the area. The rest of today looks fantastic with
cooler temperatures and much drier air working into the region.
Sfc dew pts have already fallen into the 50's and will fall into
the upper 40's this afternoon. The pressure gradient will remain
tight today as high pressure builds over the state and breezy
northwest winds will be gusty at times. Max temps will be about
15 to 20 degrees cooler today due to cooler 850 mb temps coupled
with strong CAA at the sfc. The upper flow will be zonal on Monday
and much of the active weather will remain north and east of SE
TX. Sfc high pressure will drift across SE TX and will be east of
the region by evening. Onshore winds return Monday night and low
level moisture begins to return. Could get some patchy fog early
Tuesday morning. An upper level trough will dig into northern
Mexico on Tuesday and the flow aloft will become SW. A weak
disturbance embedded in the upper flow will approach the area
Tuesday night. This feature coupled with WAA will bring the region
a chance of showers.

Things get a bit more interesting on Wednesday. A short wave
trough will dive into the central/southern plains and this feature
will carve out a deeper long wave trough over Texas. A series of
upper level disturbances will move across SE TX on Wednesday and
periods of showers and thunderstorms look likely. Fcst soundings
look robust with CAPE values over 4000, LI's around -12 and steep
lapse rates. Fcst soundings don't show much in the way of capping
and convective temps are reasonably low, around 83 degrees. Think
the threat for severe weather exists and probably a better chance
for severe weather than what was observed this weekend. The CIPS
analog page showed that past weather events such as the one
coming up on Wednesday has produced wind damage and large hail and
around 1-2 inches of rain. Will go likely PoPs for Wednesday into
Wednesday night. A cold front will cross SE TX Wednesday night
ending the rain threat and ushering in cooler and drier weather to
end the work week. Upper level ridging tries to assert itself for
next weekend with dry weather likely to continue into next
weekend with warmer temperatures. 43

Will continue to need a small craft advisory out through 1:00 PM for
all the Gulf waters. Winds will then diminish below criteria over
the nearshore waters; although, will then need to keep the SCA up
through the mid evening for the offshore waters as long-period
swells will continue to help keep the seas up even after the winds

Will keep the coastal flood advisory up through 7:00 AM. There is a
period of low astronomically predicted tides later this morning; so,
overall tide levels will be subsiding. Also helping out the
diminishing tide levels will be moderate to strong offshore winds
developing behind the cold front.



College Station (CLL) 73 51 84 59 88 / 30 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 75 55 84 62 88 / 10 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 76 67 81 71 84 / 10 0 0 0 10


TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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