FXUS66 KHNX 082312 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
412 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...Updated Air Quality Section...

Triple digit heat will arrive toward the end of the week and
continue through at least early next week. Dry conditions will
prevail the next 7 days.


Another hazy sunny day across Central California as temperatures
range around seasonal average values. While the continuation of
weak impulses will maintain the westerly winds across the area, a
building ridge pattern near the four corners area is starting to
shift the impulses northward-- providing less influence over
Central California. Therefore, temperatures will start trending
upward as we slowly inch back into triple digit values.
Furthermore, with the development of the four corners high, the
Southwest Monsoon will become a factor over the Mojave Desert and
the Sierra Nevada later in the week and into the weekend.

Short range model confidence remains high with the propagation of
weak impulses across the region before the end of the week. While
the first impulse will cross Central California overnight and
early Thursday morning, the second will follow a more northerly
trajectory during its passage. The northward trajectory will be
the result of building heights across the region as less cooler
air will be felt by the end of the week. In addition, the building
four corners high will allow for more of a northerly progression
of instability across the Desert Southwest. Model mid-level
moisture analysis is starting to show a northwest surge of
moisture heading toward Central California by the end of the week.
While significant CAPE values may not reach the Sierra Nevada
until closer to Sunday, enough instability and moisture may reach
the eastern sections of the district during the weekend (for a few
possible cloud build-ups during each afternoon).

While models show a westward progression of moisture in the
direction of Central California, T. S. Cristina will be another
variable in terms of possible moisture advection. It is still too
early to resolve how Cristina will influence convection over the
area during the weekend and into early next week. For now, will
maintain minimal Prob. Of Possible Precipitation over the weekend
and into early next week along the Sierra Nevada Crest and Kern
County portion of the Mojave Desert. Once the models reach better
consensus on the placement of the High’s center and the movement
of Cristina, will adjust the chances of any possible
precipitation. For now, will maintain a dry forecast for the next
seven days with afternoon cumulus along the Eastern Side of the
Central California Interior.


Westerly wind gust to near 30 mph are likely through and below
Kern County mountain passes this evening. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at MCE, MER, FAT, VIS, and BFL through at
least the next 24 hours.


On Thursday July 9 2020...Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Kern
County and Sequoia National Park and Forest. Further information is
available at Valleyair.org



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.






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