FXUS66 KHNX 050530
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
930 PM PST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...AND THEN RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION TUESDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND CLEAR CODITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THE SUNNY SKIES AND
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER MILD
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. CURRENT 24 HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING
PLUS OR MINUS A DEGREE OR SO. EXPECT SIMILAR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEY AGAIN...STILL
TOO DRY FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS ARE ON TRACK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS AND SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM PST SAT FEB 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...
BLOCKING HIGH PATTERN REMAINING THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE WEST
TODAY. WITH THIS...WILL EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL MIN
TEMP/S AS A DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT.
THIS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SEE ALSO ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW. THIS FLOW ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER KERN COUNTY...AND
THE VALLEY REACHED WELL INTO THE 60S. SUNDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AS THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WEST. THE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ONE
MORE NIGHT OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS NEAR THE GRAPEVINE
SUPPORTED BY THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW. MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BECOMING
ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BY SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A STORM SYSTEM PUSHING THE
BLOCKING HIGH MORE TOWARD THE ROCKIES LATER ON MONDAY. THIS
STORM...CURRENTLY DROPPING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA...IS TIMED TO
HIT THE WEST COAST ON AROUND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE TROF EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WORDING OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON TUESDAY WITH DIMINISHING POTENTIAL TOWARD TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS SYSTEM AS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AND EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM MAY SPLIT WITH MOST IT ITS ENERGY TRAVELING SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS
DURING THE STORM AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL HIT THE DISTRICT. MODELS THEN SHOW THE DISTURBANCE EXITING
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TRAVELS THROUGH THE
WEST. WHILE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ATTEMPTING THE
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP WORDING UNTIL
BETTER CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




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