FXUS64 KHUN 231120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
620 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

For 12Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

No real/sig changes look to be in the picture with respect to the
upcoming forecast heading into the end of the work week, with
unseasonably hot and dry wx conditions xpcted for the cntrl TN
Valley. In the near term, quiet wx prevails across the area this
early Thu morning, with temp trends mainly in the 60s, under predom
mostly clr skies. However, some high clouds are spreading into the
region from the west, and will likely be in place well into the
daytime hrs. Temps should also quickly rebound with the onset of
daytime heating, as a strong upper ridge axis remains in place over
the ern Gulf states. Afternoon highs look to climb into the lower
90s for most spots, which is around 10F above normal (82-83F) for
this time of the yr.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Temps should then quickly lower into the 70s this evening with the
loss of daytime heating, as cloud cover diminishes. With quiet wx
conditions again xpcted overnight, early morning lows Fri again look
to trend mainly in the mid/upper 60s. The upper ridge axis then
looks to back build to the west on Fri, as high pressure at the sfc
becomes entrenched from the southern Atlantic into the ern Gulf. This
should translate into afternoon temps climbing a degree or two both
Fri/Sat, with highs well in the lower/perhaps mid 90s. Dew pts though
are not xpcted to climb out of the 60s and likewise, afternoon heat
indices look to trend mainly in the mid/upper 90s thru Sat. Record
highs for Fri/Sat are 96F/97F respectively and this is for both
Huntsville/Muscle Shoals. Overnight lows thru Sat night are again
xpcted to be in the mid/upper 60s for most locations. The strength
of the upper ridge pattern should also help suppress much in the way
of any rain trying to form into the weekend period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The upper level ridge will continue to retreat to the south during
the long term period as a strong upper trough shifts into the
Intermountain West. Despite lowering mid level heights, 500 mb
heights will still be near the daily observed max for late May. Given
these abnormally high heights, continued sunshine and dry soils,
temperatures will remain roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal
through at least Wednesday. Daily high temperatures will rise into
the lower to mid 90s, with a few spots warming into the upper 90s.
Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index values will near
100 degrees each day. Meanwhile, clear skies and light winds during
the overnight hours will provide decent radiational cooling and lows
will fall into the lower 70s each night. Subsidence associated with
the ridge will keep any diurnally driven convection from developing.
This looks to change at the very end of the long term period as the
ridge slides eastward and the upper flow pattern becomes more zonal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

With high pressure in place at the sfc and aloft over the ern Gulf
states, VFR conds are xpcted thru the TAF period. Light/var winds
will turn more towards the SSW near 8-9kt later this morning.





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