FXUS64 KHUN 191814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
114 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

A weak 5h trough was situated along the mountains of east TN into
north and west Alabama and central MS. This along with the strong
heating this afternoon and outflow boundaries, should keep isolated
strong thunderstorms lingering into the early evening hours. Steep
low level lapse rates may contribute to brief gusty winds with the
stronger storms. As dew points are dropping into the m-u60s in our
eastern counties, expect a few spots late tonight to drip into the
u60s for lows, with l70s further west.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

The large upper high over the central Plains into the desert SW will
remain establish, with an eastward ridge extending into the mid
South and TN valley Tuesday and Wednesday. The trof axis will have
shifted into the Carolinas, GA and FL panhandle, decreasing the
amount of QG forcing in our area. Terrain and strong heating will be
the factors contributing the afternoon and early evening deep
convection/thunderstorms both days. MCS clusters over the
southeastern corn belt into the Ozarks will likely remain well to our
north along the OH valley thru Wed morning. Highs both days will be
in the l-m90s in valleys (u80s-a90 atop the mountains) with lows in
the u60s-l70s. Heat index values at this point look to stay just
below advisory levels, but still continuing in the 100-104 range in
northwest AL and u90s-a100 in southern TN and northeast AL.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Weak frontal boundary is expected to move swd into the gen area
starting Thu. The front will be aided by a broad/weak upper trough
axis settling into the region near the end of the work week. This
front will serve as a focus mech for sct/perhaps num showers/tstms
both Thu/Fri, especially during the afternoon/early evening hrs. The
front will then generally drift a little bit more to the south and
weaken into the weekend period, providing the means for more sct
showers/tstms during the day. The upper trough pattern will also
remain in place and gradually weaken over the weekend. With the
slight increase in cloud cover rainfall later this week, afternoon
temps should trend a few degrees cooler, with highs more in the upper
80s/near 90F, which is fairly seasonal for this time of the yr.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon into this evening. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but the probability is too
low to include in the TAFs. Patchy BR is anticipated late tonight
after 10Z with MVFR visibility of 3-5SM expected.


AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>003.




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