FXUS63 KICT 141536
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1036 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.UPDATE...

STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER
NOT EXPECTED TO LIFT MUCH FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. ALSO SEEING SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS SATURATION IN THE LOW
LAYERS AND SOME WEAK MIXING ALOFT HAS LEAD TO DRIZZLE REDUCING VSBYS
TO AROUND 2 MILES. WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THIS
DRIZZLE MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CENTRAL KS WILL PROBABLY STAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TODAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT HUT
WHICH CIGS ARE DOWN TO IFR. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
IFR CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
TODAY EXPECT LIMITED INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR CEILING HEIGHTS TO
GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY. AS SURFACE HEATING DIMINISHES IN
THE EVENING HOURS EXPECT LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BUILD IN FROM A
STRATUS BUILD DOWN EFFECT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT SLIGHTLY SHIFTING WINDS FROM NNW TO NNE
BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

DUNTEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENTER INTO THE PICTURE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SHOULD BE THE NORM RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST AND
COOL NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE HEARTLAND MID-WEEK...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.

DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW IN CONCERT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WITH THE GFS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP FORECAST AS
IS. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN LACK OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF FORCING PROGGED BY GFS
MAY PROMOTE A FEW MARGINALLY STRONG STORMS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
SEVERE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AS THE COLDER ECMWF IS NOW COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WARMER GFS.

ADK

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING WEST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. FOR SOME REASON THEY HAVE REALLY SLOWED THEIR WESTWARD PUSH
OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS AND HAVE ADJUSTED TAFS ACCORDINGLY. STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT THAT BY 07Z THESE LOWER CIGS WILL FINALLY MAKE IT
TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL CONFIDENT THAT
ALL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE CIGS BELOW 2,000FT OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING BEFORE THEY START TO GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS APPROACH. STILL FEEL THAT KRSL AND KHUT WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT.

LAWSON

FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 40S-50S PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
IN THE 30S/40S PERCENT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S...AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SURGE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THURSDAY-FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 6-7 DAYS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 51 40 54 37 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 50 37 53 36 / 20 10 10 10
NEWTON 49 38 54 37 / 20 10 10 10
ELDORADO 50 38 55 37 / 20 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 52 39 55 38 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELL 50 36 53 33 / 20 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 51 36 53 34 / 20 10 10 10
SALINA 48 38 54 36 / 20 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 49 37 53 36 / 20 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 51 40 56 39 / 20 10 10 10
CHANUTE 50 39 55 39 / 20 10 10 10
IOLA 49 39 55 39 / 20 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 51 40 55 39 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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