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FXUS63 KICT 240443
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Very challenging forecast with regard to the closed low which
evolves across the central Plains during Friday. The NAM is a bit
further north than the GFS/ECMWF, taking the low across far
southern Kansas, instead of northern Oklahoma. In consideration,
a compromise/conceptual approach will be taken tonight through
Saturday. For this evening/tonight, some of the western Kansas
convection could impact portions of central Kansas where better
elevated moisture transport will develop toward 06z. Additional
elevated showers/thunder could develop from the Flint Hills into
southeast Kansas Friday morning, though the developmental
mid-level dry slot should limit or temporarily end precip chances
across central Kansas through midday. In the afternoon, expecting
two areas of convection, along and ahead of the surface dry-
line/Pacific front across southeast Kansas, and then perhaps
near/just northeast of the upper low over south central Kansas.
Strong deep layer shear and modest instability will support a few
severe storms across southeast Kansas Friday afternoon. Some
indications of decent low level cape just ahead of the surface
front in southeast Kansas and potential for backed surface flow
suggest a brief tornado threat could also exist Friday afternoon.
Expect to see some wrap around precip/showers through Friday
night before ending from west to east across the area early on
Saturday. The next upper trof will move east across the Plains
Sunday into early Monday, providing another chance for much needed
rainfall.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Another upper trof will dig south across California early next
week and into a closed low across the southwest CONUS. This could
provide the central Plains with precip chances again by mid-week,
though details on timing and chances for meaningful QPF are
subject it subsequent track, with only low to modest confidence at
this point.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Gusty south winds will continue through the night time hours and
into Friday across the region. A frontal boundary will sink
southward into central Kansas Friday afternoon with winds
switching to the northwest and gusty again. Meanwhile some low
clouds in the MVFR range will be possible over southeast Kansas in
the morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Strong south winds will continue to fuel very high to extreme
grassland fire danger through the evening. A period of extreme
grassland fire danger looks to exist behind the dry-line front
across the southern Flint Hills on Friday afternoon. So a fire
weather watch will be issued.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 59 75 47 63 / 10 30 40 10
Hutchinson 58 74 44 62 / 20 50 30 0
Newton 59 73 44 60 / 20 30 40 10
ElDorado 60 74 46 62 / 20 30 40 20
Winfield-KWLD 60 75 47 64 / 20 30 40 10
Russell 53 69 40 61 / 20 50 20 0
Great Bend 53 68 40 62 / 20 50 20 0
Salina 59 75 44 60 / 20 40 40 10
McPherson 57 74 43 61 / 20 40 40 10
Coffeyville 61 74 50 64 / 10 50 60 40
Chanute 61 73 49 62 / 10 60 70 50
Iola 61 73 49 61 / 10 60 70 60
Parsons-KPPF 62 73 50 63 / 10 50 60 40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Friday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096.

Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for KSZ069-070-092>094-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...KED
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