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FXUS63 KICT 172157
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
357 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 355 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Main challenge will be light wintry precipitation chances through
overnight.

A strong cold front continues to slowly ooze south across the
forecast area this afternoon, with temperatures ranging from upper
20s across north-central Kansas, to 60s across far southeast
Kansas. Strong north winds in wake of the front area supporting
wind chills in the teens and 20s.

Wintry precipitation chances through tonight...Given that
majority of lift and saturation will remain below the -10C level,
predominant precipitation type will likely be patchy very light
freezing drizzle. Could see very light ice accumulations and
associated patchy slick conditions...especially along/south of
Great Bend to Salina, and generally northwest of Sedan to
Iola...within zone of best low-level frontal lift amidst
temperatures below freezing. Keep in mind...even though this setup
is not conducive for widespread light ice accumulations and
associated adverse impacts (given low- level dry air advecting in
from the north), it doesn't take much ice accumulation to create
slick conditions. Evening shift will continue to monitor.

Further north generally along/north of I-70, drier low-level air
and associated higher cloud bases should keep freezing drizzle
chances lower, although southern fringe of mid-level lift and
saturation passing through should allow for a chance of light
snow/flurries this evening/overnight. Snow accumulations will
likely be minimal, probably no more than a few tenths. Higher
amounts will fall this evening across far northern Kansas and
southern Nebraska, north of the forecast area.

Lingering patchy light freezing drizzle may impact far southeast
Kansas Sunday morning. Otherwise, clouds will be slow to clear
from the northwest Sunday, with continued below normal high
temperatures in the 30s. Temperatures will warm back into the 50s
Monday-Tuesday, as upper ridging slowly approaches from the west.

Kleinsasser

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

The warming trend will continue mid to late week, as atmospheric
thickness increases and southerly winds ramp up. Next chance of
precipitation arrives Thursday night and Friday, as model
consensus progresses an upper trough east across Mid- America.
Thinking temperatures will be warm enough for precipitation type
to remain all rain. For the weekend, model consensus and
associated ensembles support an active upper pattern developing
across the Nation. While overall details remain unclear this far
in the future, a few model and ensemble members support the
potential for a large storm system developing somewhere across the
Heartland. Stay tuned.

Kleinsasser

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Low clouds in the IFR/MVFR range will continue to slowly spread
southward across the region for today into tonight, with low cloud
ceilings rising for central Kansas Sunday morning. Could see some
patchy light freezing drizzle affect central and portions of
south central Kansas this evening, however it expected to be very
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 27 38 26 52 / 30 10 0 0
Hutchinson 25 38 26 51 / 40 10 0 0
Newton 25 37 27 50 / 40 10 0 0
ElDorado 27 37 26 51 / 30 10 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 28 38 26 53 / 30 10 0 0
Russell 22 38 25 51 / 40 10 0 0
Great Bend 22 39 25 51 / 40 10 0 0
Salina 24 38 26 51 / 40 10 0 0
McPherson 24 38 25 50 / 40 10 0 0
Coffeyville 31 38 27 53 / 30 20 0 0
Chanute 29 37 26 52 / 30 20 0 0
Iola 29 37 25 51 / 30 20 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 31 38 26 53 / 30 20 0 0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ
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