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FXUS63 KICT 060326
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1026 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This afternoon, a diffuse/weakening surface front lies west to east
across NRN KS, with another surface boundary/moisture gradient
stretching from WRN KS south into the TX/OK Panhandles. Aloft, a
strong ridge is in place across the Plains, with troughing
developing across the WRN US.

Warm mid-level temps (10-12C) and a lack of better convergence along
the NRN KS surface boundary should keep central and southern Kansas
capped/storm-free through this evening. Of note, there is slightly
better convergence along the moisture gradient in SW KS, and recent
satellite imagery has shown some developing CU there. Not sure there
will be enough convergence for storms to develop, but even if they
do, propagation vectors suggests a southeastward movement into OK,
staying west of south-central KS.

Over the weekend, the upper level ridge will slide eastward, and be
centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes region by Sunday night. Warm
mid-level temps (as high as 12-14C) beneath the ridge and a lack
of any appreciable lifting mechanism should keep central and
southern KS dry. As the ridge slides east, moderate to strong mid-
level height falls will overspread the Rockies/High Plains,
leading to a deepening lee trough, and a tightening pressure
gradient out over the Plains. This will lead to increasing SFC to
850mb wind speeds from west to east over the weekend, with the
highest SFC winds developing where deeper mixing can occur. The
strongest winds look to be focused along/west of I-135 through
Sunday, and wind speeds/gusts were nudged up from the previous
forecast given the expected mixing and stronger winds aloft. Parts
of central KS may flirt with Wind Advisory criteria by Sunday.
The better mixing should also lead to somewhat lower dewpoints
(50s/low 60s), which should keep heat indices close to the actual
air temp. However, where less mixing occurs, dewpoints may still
be able to reach the upper 60s to low 70s, leading to heat indices
approaching 105 degrees. This seems most likely from the Flint
Hills east and is where we decided to hoist a Heat Advisory for
tomorrow afternoon. In that same area, there may be just enough
weakening of inhibition for a rogue airmass thunderstorm to
develop, but kept this out of the forecast for now given the warm
temps aloft and lack of low-level convergence.

Martin

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

The primary focus during this period will be what, if any, impact TC
Cristobal has on eastern KS. Cristobal has been meandering around
the Yucatan Peninsula over the past couple of days, but has begun to
move north towards the Gulf of Mexico, and recently strengthened
into a Tropical Storm. Based on the latest NHC forecast, this
northward movement will continue through early next week as the
WRN US trough edges east. The official track takes the remnants
through the Ozarks, possibly clipping extreme eastern KS Monday.
At this point, the worst case, western- most scenario, would bring
1-2" of rain to far, far SE KS, with higher amounts focused over
MO. Even a small shift east in the track could lead to little, if
any, precipitation for our area (associated with Cristobal).

As the WRN US trough, itself, moves out over the Plains, a cold
front will push east across KS. The front may carry some
thunderstorm potential across western and central KS, but will
likely be fighting drier air and stronger subsidence on the west
side of Cristobal's remnants. The merger of the upper trough and
Cristobal will likely lead to a modest southward push of relatively
"cooler" and drier air for a brief time over the Central Plains,
which may effectively keep dry conditions in place for the
remainder of the work week.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

VFR conditions will prevail across the region during the next
24hrs. South winds will increase during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Humidity values will fall into the mid to upper 20s Saturday and
Sunday, and will be accompanied by sustained wind speeds of 15-25
mph (gusts to 40 mph).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 72 97 73 95 / 10 0 0 0
Hutchinson 71 97 73 95 / 10 0 0 0
Newton 71 95 73 93 / 10 0 0 0
ElDorado 72 94 72 93 / 10 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 73 96 72 94 / 10 0 0 0
Russell 70 99 73 97 / 10 0 0 0
Great Bend 70 99 72 96 / 10 0 0 0
Salina 71 98 74 96 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 71 97 73 94 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 72 94 72 93 / 10 10 0 0
Chanute 72 94 72 93 / 10 10 0 0
Iola 72 94 72 93 / 10 10 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 72 94 72 93 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ052-053-
069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...RM
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