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FXUS63 KICT 211955
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
255 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Water vapor imagery shows southern stream impulse lifting
northeast over western KS with a much more robust wave diving
southeast over southern Manitoba. At the surface, cold front
stretches from extreme northeast Nebraska into northeast Colorado.

Moisture advection in the 850-700mb layer is already in place
across the area and is allowing sct showers and storms to develop,
especially over northeast KS. This moist mid level flow will
steadily increase as the evening hours approach which should
result in a slow increase in activity, especially over
east/northeast KS. With precipitable water values over 2 inches
and a tropical connection(via water vapor imagery) very high
rainfall rates are likely. Contemplated throwing a couple counties
in a flood watch this evening, but still feel the most likely
areas to see widespread flooding will be just northeast of the
forecast area. Would still not be shocked if we issue a couple
flood warnings tonight along our northeast fringes. Still can't
rule out a few strong to severe storms tonight given some decent
instability and wet microburst potential.

Cold front is expected to sweep through the area Tue morning and
by out of the forecast area by the early afternoon hours. May see
some sct showers and storms near the front, but feel the more
widespread activity will be tonight with the continued mid level
moisture transport.

A much cooler and especially drier airmass will be welcomed across
the region behind the front with highs in mid to upper 80s Tue and
low to mid 80s for Wed and Thu. Normal highs for this time of year
are around the 90 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

There is still decent model agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in
lifting some upper energy out of the desert sw/Great Basin and
across the central/southern Plains Thu night through Fri night. At
the same time there is also good agreement in tracking a tropical
system across the Gulf and into sw TX by Thu night. Right now
medium range models keep this system over southern TX. Even though
we will eventually get some better moisture up here later in the
week, confidence is high that afternoon highs will remain below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Scattered storms are expected to develop this afternoon around 22z
mainly along the KS Turnpike and areas east. Coverage should be
limited so avoided putting that in that in the TAFs.

More development is expected in the region around 05z, lasting
through about 12z. The area of storms Will track from northwest
to southeast along an advancing cold front.

Conditions in storms could be 1/2 +TSRA OVC012CB. Elsewhere, VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 94 72 87 62 / 30 50 20 10
Hutchinson 93 70 87 59 / 50 50 20 0
Newton 93 71 86 58 / 50 60 20 0
ElDorado 93 71 87 59 / 30 60 20 10
Winfield-KWLD 94 73 88 62 / 20 40 30 10
Russell 91 67 85 57 / 50 40 10 0
Great Bend 91 68 86 57 / 50 30 10 0
Salina 93 70 86 57 / 60 50 10 0
McPherson 93 70 86 57 / 50 50 20 0
Coffeyville 92 74 89 63 / 10 50 60 10
Chanute 91 73 87 60 / 20 70 50 10
Iola 91 72 86 60 / 20 70 50 10
Parsons-KPPF 92 74 88 63 / 10 60 60 10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KRC
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