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FXUS63 KICT 242335
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Tonight-Friday morning:
Convection this evening is complicated by MCV moving across
forecast area at this time. Anticipate that storms associated with
MCV will persist into the evening in southeast KS. Storms in
western KS will eventually work into central KS but weaken. Best
chance/coverage of storms by late night/early Friday will be NE of
area in the better moisture transport/baroclinic zone. However
moisture axis and weak moisture transport lingers across most of
forecast area, and suspect there will be isolated showers/
thunderstorm sprinkled across the entire at daybreak. Virtually
all models increase precipitation chances in southeast KS during
the morning which then linger into the afternoon.

Friday afternoon-Friday evening:
Highs on Friday should be suppressed by lingering precipitation
and clouds/while far western sections are warmer duration to
increased insolation. Anticipating storms will linger/expand
Friday afternoon with potential boundary across the area. Strong-
severe storms are possible, but this would require clearing and
heating to develop instability and not sure if that will happen. A
weak boundary or two is probable, but location is problematic to
focus chances for rain.

Saturday-Sunday:
Stray afternoon storms possible on Saturday in southeast KS,
otherwise dry and warmer conditions are expected as upper ridge
moves across the area. Heat indices should stay out of the triple
digits, although mid-upper 90s are probable. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Western trough shifts east and weakens this period. With mainly
weak and diffluent upper flow, will have multiple chances for
western KS storms to and drift into the area. In addition, low
level moisture will remain in place for much of this period, so
isolated storms also possible in peak heating, especially in
southeast KS. Temperatures could trend warmer with subsequent
updates, but low level moisture could also suppress maxes and
initialization grids looked reasonable for a first guess.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Aviation concerns will be storms this evening and overnight.

Storms continue to affect area east of I-135, which is mainly due
to an MCV that tracked out of south central KS earlier today.
Heavy rain and gusty winds look to be the main threats with this
activity and KCNU will be the most likely impacted.

Additional storms are developing over northwest KS in relation to
a shortwave moving out of the central Rockies and along a weak
cold front. This activity will track east and southeast overnight,
potentially making it into the western fringes of forecast area
after 04z. At this point, will run with VCTS at KRSL-KHUT-KGBD and
leave out of other sites until we see how this area of convection
behaves.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 65 89 67 95 / 10 20 20 0
Hutchinson 66 92 65 95 / 10 20 20 0
Newton 66 88 66 95 / 10 20 20 0
ElDorado 64 86 66 92 / 10 20 20 10
Winfield-KWLD 67 85 66 93 / 10 30 20 10
Russell 65 93 63 95 / 40 20 10 0
Great Bend 64 92 63 94 / 30 20 10 0
Salina 67 94 66 97 / 20 20 10 0
McPherson 66 92 65 96 / 20 20 20 0
Coffeyville 67 83 67 91 / 30 40 30 20
Chanute 65 82 66 91 / 40 30 30 20
Iola 65 82 66 91 / 40 20 30 20
Parsons-KPPF 66 83 67 91 / 40 40 30 20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL
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