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FXUS63 KICT 152034
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
334 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

A pronounced shortwave trough over New Mexico this afternoon (per
water vapor imagery), will propagate slowly eastward over the
southern Plains tonight into Sunday. A weak surface-850 mb cold
front, extending from southeast Nebraska to central and southwestern
Kansas, will sink slowly southward. By early Sunday evening, the
front should extend from central Missouri across southeast Kansas to
western Oklahoma. The front and approaching mid-level shortwave
trough will be potential trigger mechanisms for thunderstorms.
Initial isolated strong-severe storms could form by early this
evening along the front in central Kansas where the inhibition is
weakening. Storm activity should increase across northern
Oklahoma/southern Kansas later this evening/overnight, as moisture
transport develops/strengthens in response to a weak low-level jet,
coincident with very weak height falls aloft. Will taper rain
chances from 20/30% in central Kansas, to likely (60-70%) in the far
south tonight. MUCAPE of 2500-4000 j/kg, deep-layer shear of 25-35
knots, and strong downdraft CAPE of ~1500 j/kg will support isolated
occurrences of large hail, however damaging winds would be the most
probable severe threat with cold pool development likely. Localized
strips of heavy rainfall are also possible mainly in the south,
given higher precipitable water and slow Corfidi progapation
vectors.

Will maintain 20-30% thunderstorm chances in south-central and
southeast Kansas for Sunday-Sunday night, as the shortwave trough
continues its slow migration across Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

-Caruso

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

By Monday morning, the upper-level low will be located in the
vicinity of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, with the
stationary surface front stretching across far southeast Kansas,
extending both northeast-ward towards the St. Louis metro area and
southwest-ward towards Oklahoma City. During the morning commute,
lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible roughly
along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Instability parameters will
have decreased somewhat so showers/thunderstorms are not likely
to be severe by this time as they continue to weaken in intensity
as they track to the southeast. Models differ on the solution for
the remainder of the day on Monday from the afternoon-evening,
with the ECMWF and GFS suggesting weak 500mb ridging across
central Kansas in the wake of the exiting system (keeping the
forecast dry), while the NAM keeps this ridging slightly further
to the west. Thinking that this ridging will likely keep rain
chances in check for central Kansas for much of the day, so have
trended back pops here for this issuance, keeping in mind they may
need to be trimmed even further with later forecasts.

Overnight Monday night and through Wednesday morning, a series of
mid/upper shortwaves will usher in more chances for periodic showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Although widespread
severe storms appear unlikely, a few storms could be strong during
this period. A break in the active pattern looks to come during the
day on Thursday when most of the area should remain dry before storm
chances increase once again by Friday evening and into Saturday.

Temperatures throughout the extended period will largely remain
below normal values, with highs in the low 80s Monday - Wednesday.
Temperatures are expected to warm back up to near climatology during
the latter portion of the workweek, with temperatures reaching the
upper 80s or low 90s.

-Vaughan

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Unsettled pattern continues through this period. A boundary is
set up across portions of central Kansas. Areas to the north and
west which include KRSL and KGBD should escape the significant
weather for the most part and I have opted to keep the mention of
VCTS at all other locations. However, I will state that it is
possible for TRW at those two locations if enough convergence
occurs along the boundary and a weak over running or advection
scenario occurs. Though this seems a bit slim at this time.

All other sites will be dealing with SCT to BKN TRW through the
period as well as lower end VFR and high end MVFR CIG conditions.
KCNU has the highest likelihood this afternoon due to a few
lingering boundaries and CAPE values will into the 4K and possibly
higher range. HRRR depicts TRW to form this afternoon in the Flint
Hills region and east due to this amount of instability. Support
is not strong the flow is somewhat suspect, so I wouldn't imagine
it being much more significant than strong downburst winds and
isolated hail. As we get into the late evening and overnight hours
we will see the other southern taf sites KHUT and KICT possibly
experiencing TRW. A upper system just to the west and increasing
low level flow should aid in storm development and migration.
Strong winds and possibly marginal hail look to be main threats if
storms develop.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 66 83 64 83 / 60 30 20 20
Hutchinson 64 84 63 83 / 40 20 20 30
Newton 65 82 64 81 / 40 20 20 30
ElDorado 65 81 64 81 / 60 30 20 30
Winfield-KWLD 65 82 64 82 / 70 40 30 30
Russell 61 84 60 83 / 20 10 10 30
Great Bend 62 83 60 83 / 20 10 10 20
Salina 63 86 62 84 / 20 10 10 30
McPherson 63 84 62 82 / 30 20 10 30
Coffeyville 67 82 65 83 / 70 40 40 50
Chanute 66 82 64 82 / 70 40 30 40
Iola 66 82 64 82 / 70 30 30 40
Parsons-KPPF 66 82 65 83 / 70 40 40 40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...CWH
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