Location:  
MeteoStar


FXUS63 KICT 250833
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Today:
Storms should continue as progressive upper trough moves east. May
see storms linger a bit across south central KS along western
edge, but with exiting upper low moving, these should wane by
midday west of I-35. Will keep flash flood watch going until
scheduled expiration and reassess whether an expansion/extension
is warranted.

Tonight:
Precipitation should end by 0000 UTC or shortly thereafter in far
SE KS. With considerable boundary layer moisture lingering and
south-southeast winds, anticipate widespread stratus to develop
along/east of Flint Hills. Not as clear cut to the west given
models' bias to over forecast post front upslope clouds/precipitation.

Monday-Tuesday:
Not as keen on precipitation Monday morning, but with front likely
moving through in the afternoon, chances look good for another
round of at least strong if not severe storms with cold front.
Expect this to make a quicker than forecast exit Monday evening in
southeast KS and only lingered into Tuesday for consistency.
Surface high pressure should help shut down precipitation chance
with front well into OK on Tuesday. However had to keep some low
pops across southeast KS Tuesday-Tuesday night for consistency.
-Howerton


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Surface ridge will slowly move east with lingering west-north
west flow aloft. Followed the trend started yesterday by the day
shift of nixing precipitation early in this period and trimmed
more to the limit of consistency, although still likely overdone
early. In fact chances late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning
may be more likely in western half of the area than the east, as
very weak warm air advection and 850MB moisture gradient is
forecast but neither are particularly impressive. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Complex of strong-severe storms will likely be ongoing in the
vicinity of KSLN and KGBD at the start of the forecast and
arriving at KHUT and KICT not long thereafter. Low level moisture
and upslope flow has generated IFR ceilings in advance of the
line. Anticipate at least 30G40KT near or just ahead of the
initial line of storms with 40G55KT possible. Once line of storms
and heavy rain move through, anticipate mainly VFR condition with
pockets of MVFR in heavier showers and isolated storms. -Howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 81 70 89 64 / 90 10 20 20
Hutchinson 81 70 86 62 / 70 0 20 20
Newton 80 70 86 62 / 80 10 30 20
ElDorado 79 70 87 63 / 90 10 30 30
Winfield-KWLD 80 71 90 65 / 100 10 30 40
Russell 83 70 83 59 / 10 10 20 10
Great Bend 83 70 83 60 / 20 0 20 10
Salina 82 71 85 61 / 40 10 30 10
McPherson 80 70 85 61 / 50 0 30 20
Coffeyville 79 71 90 67 / 90 10 30 70
Chanute 78 70 88 65 / 90 10 40 60
Iola 78 70 88 64 / 90 10 40 60
Parsons-KPPF 78 71 89 66 / 90 10 30 70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-033-
047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...PJH
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page