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FXUS63 KICT 270822
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
322 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Some elevated convection may persist into mid-morning where a
reservoir of modest CAPE remains across southern Kansas in a
zone of 850-700 mb warm advection. Otherwise, mid/upper level
ridging will translate east across the area today with a deepening
lee side surface trough resulting in a tightening pressure
gradient and increasing wind across central Kansas. Warming aloft
should limit or preclude much more than an isolated storms in the
afternoon, so plan to keep the forecast dry after this morning.
A more active westerly flow regime aloft will begin to affect the
central CONUS tonight and continue the rest of the week. A lead
shortwave will move across the northern/central Plains tonight
with the tail end of forcing for ascent expected to promote
some convection across the high Plains early this evening. Decent
elevated moisture transport on a strong nocturnal low level jet
should allow convection and possible MCS to develop/move eastward
across Nebraska into north central Kansas tonight. The challenge
remains how far south this activity may develop/propagate into
central Kansas as it impinges on warming aloft to the south. Any
storms which move across central Kansas could be locally strong.
Mesoscale outflow could influence convective trends, winds and
temperatures along any resultant boundary through early Wednesday.
Even so, expect a recovery in the mean southerly low level flow
by Wednesday afternoon with much warmer temperatures across the
area. A weak shortwave aloft will affect the central Plains again
Wednesday evening/night. The effective surface front/trough is
expected to be situated across central Kansas near peak heating
with a very unstable airmass and shear profiles supporting a few
severe storms. Another area of convection and potential MCS may
develop/organize a bit further west across the high Plains
Wednesday evening before moving/propagating east-southeastward
across central Kansas Wednesday night. This activity could also be
severe with warmer temperatures aloft limiting chances across
southern Kansas. Progged low level thickness values and thermal
profiles suggest maxs should be near or slightly above MOS
guidance the next couple of days.

A more significant upper trof is still expected to move across
the northern/central Plains on Thursday into Thursday night. This
should provide the best chances for convection with some severe
weather and heavy rainfall across the area.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

In the wake of the convective complex late Thursday night, the
effective surface cold front should push south into Oklahoma
during Friday. This should also shunt the better precip chances
south as well. However, due to some uncertainty still several
days out plan to retain some mention of PoPs across portions of
southern Kansas until early Saturday. Differences remain in the
medium range on timing of upper shortwaves moving across the
Plains by Sunday and Monday, though will retain modest chance PoPs
for now Saturday night through Sunday night. There is much better
agreement by the middle of next week as the GFS and ECMWF build
the strongest upper ridge of the warm season so far into Kansas.
If this holds sway, it portends to century topping temperatures
and a real Summer feel by Days 9 & 10.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Isolated TSRA are possible overnight but the extremely limited
coverage dictates leaving "VCTS" out of TAFs. Toward morning the
concern shifts toward stratus ~1,000ft that may impact KGBD & KRSL
as moistening SE flow increases. With winds becoming almost due
southerly and continuing to increase to ~22kts sustained the
stratus would scour from these terminals by 17Z with all areas in
VFR status thereafter.

ES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 89 72 95 72 / 10 10 10 20
Hutchinson 90 72 96 71 / 10 10 10 30
Newton 89 72 95 71 / 10 10 20 30
ElDorado 87 71 93 71 / 10 10 10 20
Winfield-KWLD 88 72 93 73 / 10 0 10 10
Russell 91 71 96 68 / 10 30 10 40
Great Bend 91 71 96 69 / 10 20 10 30
Salina 91 72 97 71 / 10 30 20 40
McPherson 90 72 96 70 / 10 20 20 30
Coffeyville 87 71 90 72 / 10 0 0 10
Chanute 86 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 20
Iola 86 69 89 71 / 10 10 10 20
Parsons-KPPF 86 70 89 72 / 10 0 0 10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...EPS
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