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FXUS63 KICT 171745
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Thunderstorms remain the primary forecast topic as a deep moisture
rich environment remains entrenched across the Great Plains.
Clusters of thunderstorms are developing over Western/Central KS
ahead/SE of a NE-SW oriented line of thunderstorms extending from
NW KS to Central Nebraska. Convection being sustained by a broad,
lower-deck moisture axis generally positioned from NW KS into Nrn
OK. NAM & ECMWF attempt to develop an elevated E/W oriented front
that'll cut across Nrn KS this morning. The line should get pushed
S today & tonight as a mid-level shortwave moves E/SE into K late
tonight. As such anticipate the greater thunderstorms potential to
shift slowly S this evening. Later tonight the greater potential
for thunderstorms should shift slowly NE as the front becomes
lesser defined & SW lower-deck elevated flow slowly increases to
shift the broad moisture axis toward N & NE KS. This NE migration
of the moisture axis would continue Wed & by Wed night the bulk of
the thunderstorms should occur just NE of KICT Country as has been
forecast the past couple days. The most pronounced upper-deck trof
in some time is still progged to move slowly SE across the Dakotas
Wed & Wed night. A pronounced region of markedly increasing 6-8KM
bulk shear of about 40-50kts is still projected to reach most of
Nebraska & NE KS this afternoon & evening with a 2nd pronounced
region of equally strong bulk shear scheduled to arrive Wed & Wed
night. As such severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to
occur from this afternoon thru Wed evening. For KICT Country the
greatest potential should occur this afternoon & tonight. However
any convection that occurs this morning may throw a few knuckle-
balls as was case yesterday so stay tuned.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

These periods should be predominantly dry as the afore-mentioned
shortwave (which'll evolve into a pronounced upper low as it
crosses the Great Lakes Fri & Fri night) allows a strengthening
ridge to punch north into Wrn/Central Canada.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Subsidence in the wake of the early day MCS should result in only
isolated late day convection across the area. Chances for
overnight and early morning convection will exist over central
Kansas, though too remote to insert into the terminals for now.
Otherwise VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast
valid period.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 88 73 93 73 / 80 30 20 10
Hutchinson 87 71 92 71 / 100 40 20 10
Newton 85 71 91 71 / 100 40 30 10
ElDorado 84 71 91 72 / 90 30 30 10
Winfield-KWLD 89 73 93 73 / 80 40 20 10
Russell 85 70 92 69 / 100 50 20 10
Great Bend 85 70 93 69 / 100 40 20 10
Salina 86 72 92 71 / 100 40 30 20
McPherson 85 71 92 71 / 100 40 30 10
Coffeyville 89 73 92 74 / 90 30 30 10
Chanute 86 73 89 73 / 100 30 30 20
Iola 87 73 88 72 / 100 30 30 20
Parsons-KPPF 89 73 91 74 / 100 30 30 10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED
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