FXUS63 KICT 050937
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW RETURNING FOR TUE.

TODAY-MON:
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO MON AS MOST
OF THE PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO MOST OF NEB YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY....WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN CONTROL
TODAY. WHILE SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE
TODAY...AS NORTH FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO MUCH OF A
WARMUP...EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT.

MON NIGHT-TUE:
SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK EAST INTO THE
PLAINS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO KS EARLY ON TUE...WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE
AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. ONLY MODEST MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH SATURATION INCREASING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FORCING AND LIFT...EVEN WITH THE
MODEST MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A PRECIP CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND SATURATION OCCURS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TUE MORNING IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE...COULD SEE
A FEW HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH MORE OF A
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN KS. FORECAST PROFILE COOLS
ENOUGH TO TURN ALL THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW BY TUE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
IT ENDS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER CEN KS. MID LEVEL
SATURATION LOOK TO END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TUE EVE BRINGING THE
SNOW CHANCE TO AN END...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT HIGH...WHICH MAY TURN THE LIGHT SNOW OVER FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEFORE ENDING TUE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

WED-THU:
EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE TO EXIT MOST OF SOUTHEAST KS BY EARLY
WED MORNING. SEASONAL TEMPS LOOK TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NW. BOTH MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THU...AS A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS BOUNDARY DOESNT LOOK TO ENCOUNTER ANY MOISTURE UNTIL IT
GETS SOUTH OF KS INTO OK.

REST OF THE EXTENDED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL
UNFOLD...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF FLATTENS OUT THE NW FLOW GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR FRI-SAT.
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE ECMWF IS THE WAY TO GO FOR NOW WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ARCTIC PLUNGE SUGGESTED
BY THE GFS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KANSAS MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DAWN AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR TODAY INTO MON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE...WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS BACK AROUND
TO THE NW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL KS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN SOUTHERN
KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 46 24 51 32 / 10 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 45 22 51 29 / 10 0 0 10
NEWTON 44 25 50 31 / 10 0 0 10
ELDORADO 45 24 50 31 / 10 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 47 24 51 33 / 10 0 0 10
RUSSELL 40 19 50 25 / 10 0 0 30
GREAT BEND 41 20 50 26 / 10 0 0 30
SALINA 43 21 52 27 / 10 0 0 20
MCPHERSON 44 23 51 29 / 10 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 48 24 51 32 / 10 0 0 10
CHANUTE 47 23 51 31 / 10 0 0 10
IOLA 46 24 50 32 / 10 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 47 22 52 29 / 10 0 0 10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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