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FXUS63 KICT 180917
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave tracking across the Central
Great Basin. At the surface, low pressure continues to deepen over
eastern CO.

Widespread fog continues this morning as return flow increases
which is slowly increasing dewpoints across the area. The best
chance for dense fog will continue to be along and especially west
of I-135. Return flow is also slowly allowing temps to climb which
should limit any freezing fog over central KS with the better
freezing fog and icing conditions just north of the forecast area.

Should start to see some drizzle or light rain develop later this
morning as isentropic lift ramps up and moisture becomes deeper.
Models have continued to be more progressive with this system
which will act to limit heavy snowfall potential. Another main
issue with this wave being so progressive is much of the cloud ice
will push east by the time low levels are supportive of snow. The
only exception looks to be northeast and eastern portions of the
forecast area which does maintain cloud ice for a few hours
longer than the remainder of the area. This should result in
slightly higher snow amounts and went ahead and ran with an
advisory in these areas. Feel that with 30-40 mph winds, it won't
take much snow to cause issues. While confidence is high that a
wind advisory will be needed for areas east of I-135 tonight,
wanted to let the day shift take a look at 12z data to see if they
want to add a couple more counties to the winter weather
advisory. Feel that it's not out of the question to get some light
freezing rain or freezing drizzle this evening as the low level
cold surge moves in, especially in the absence of introducing ice
at the top of the sounding. However, not expecting anything more
than a light glaze of ice.

Sat is still looking like a raw day with gusty north winds and
temps around 20 degrees below normal. The faster progression of
this wave will also result in the area getting back into warmer
temps faster on Sunday. Highs on Sun look to be in the 40s for
much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

By 12z Mon another shortwave will be digging over the Great Basin
with both ECMWF and GFS agreeing well on location and timing. This
wave is expected to remain progressive as it sweeps across the
Plains Mon night through Tue as it also maintains a positive
tilt. At this time it appears locations north of the forecast area
will have the best chance for accumulating snowfall. However,
confidence is high that this system will bring another shot of
cold air for Mon night into Tue. Wouldn't be shocked if highs on
Tue continue to be dropped with future forecasts. Below normal
temps look to continue through the end of the work week as the
Plains get into northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

Widespread LIFR AND VLIFR continue to impact much of central and
south central KS this evening. Low ceilings and 1/2-1/4 mile or
lower visibilities continue to impact much of the area. Light
southeast winds are expected to increase through the night
allowing low level moisture to slowly increase across the area
resulting in widespread fog and LIFR/VLIFR continuing into the day
on Friday. We may see ceilings rise but visibilities may remain
low as low level moisture advects northward into the area. Some
areas of light freezing drizzle will remain possible along the
I-70 corridor with temperatures hovering near freezing, but rising
temperatures through the early morning hours should limit any ice
accumulations. An approaching storm system will bring increasing
chances for rain on Friday while rain changes to snow across
central KS after 20-22Z in the KRSL-KGBD and eventually the KSLN
areas toward the end of the TAF period. Gusty northwest winds will
eventually arrive across the area in the wake of the front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 47 20 27 17 / 60 70 10 0
Hutchinson 45 18 26 16 / 60 50 10 0
Newton 45 17 25 16 / 70 60 10 0
ElDorado 46 19 26 16 / 70 90 10 0
Winfield-KWLD 51 22 29 17 / 50 80 10 0
Russell 39 15 26 17 / 40 20 0 0
Great Bend 41 16 27 18 / 40 20 0 0
Salina 41 16 24 15 / 70 50 10 0
McPherson 43 17 24 15 / 70 50 10 0
Coffeyville 52 26 29 16 / 50 100 20 0
Chanute 49 23 26 13 / 60 100 10 0
Iola 47 22 25 13 / 70 100 10 0
Parsons-KPPF 51 25 28 14 / 50 100 10 0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Saturday for KSZ052-053-070>072-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM
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