FXUS63 KICT 050242
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
842 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008

.UPDATE...

WEAK IMPULSE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO SWING SOUTHEAST IN THE NW FLOW
INTO NORTHERN KS AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SATURATION JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE IS LEADING TO SOME FLURRIES NEAR PRATT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR GREAT BEND. DRY LOW LEVELS PREVENTING MUCH OF THE LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO WILL EXTEND FLURRIE
CHANCE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THIS IMPULSE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

WILL ALSO TWEAK MIN TEMPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS GIVEN CURRENT
VALUES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S. BIGGEST DROP IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE CLEARING AFTER THE IMPULSE PASSES WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID
LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WITH THIS DECK
WILL RANGE FROM 4-8K FEET WITH CENTRAL KS NEAR KRSL/KSLN SEEING THE
LOWEST CEILINGS. LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS IN CENTRAL KS CAUSED BY
SOME SATURATION IN THE MID LAYERS LEADING TO VIRGA/LIGHT SNOW
FORMATION. MOST OF THIS SNOW IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT HITS THE
GROUND....WITH POSSIBLY JUST SOME FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND.
WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN ANY TAF SITES FOR NOW...AS NO OBSCURATION
TO VISIBILITIES OR LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED.

KETCHAM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-FRI:

POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES EARLY...BUT WILL BE A BATTLE WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR...AS EVIDENCED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS DRY AIR COULD MAKE MINIMUMS A CHALLENGE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED. ON
FRIDAY...LIMITED MIXING WILL COUNTERACT INSOLATION LIMITING WARMUP.

FRI NIGHT-SUN:

COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
ON SAT. BOTH EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL HAVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S AT 0000 UTC SUN. WHILE MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS HAS
TRENDED DOWN...HAVE STILL UNDERCUT COLDEST MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS
BY A DEGREE OR TWO. SOME REBOUND ON SUN...BUT GIVEN COOL
START/INVERSION/LIMITED MIXING WILL HAVE PRETTY LARGE GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST.

MON-THU:

FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...BUT WITH LARGE THERMAL GRADIENTS...
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF BUST POTENTIAL. MAIN STORY IS THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH KEEPS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
1040 MILLIBAR CANADIAN HIGH WEST DROP INTO THE PLAINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUNGING WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. CONTINUE THE TREND
FROM YESTERDAY OF SLASHING TEMPERATURES FOR MIDDLE-LATE WEEK. THE
TWO MOST TELLING FEATURES ARE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL MODEL
OUTPUT STATISTICS MAXES FOR TUE-THU ARE 10 DEGREE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...AND THAT THE 0000 UTC RUN OF EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 20S FOR 12/00 UTC. AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO BE ON MON/MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-35. FORECAST GRIDS WHERE HEAVILY BASED ON 0000 UTC
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 22 40 28 47 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 22 39 28 46 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 21 38 28 44 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 21 39 29 45 / 10 10 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 22 41 27 48 / 10 10 0 10
RUSSELL 18 40 27 45 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 20 39 27 46 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 18 41 28 45 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 21 39 27 45 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 21 40 28 47 / 10 10 0 10
CHANUTE 19 39 28 44 / 10 10 0 10
IOLA 19 38 28 43 / 10 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 21 39 28 46 / 10 10 0 10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page