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FXUS63 KICT 182100
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Mid-upper lvl moisture/cloud cover continues to build in this
afternoon/evening to prime the column ahead of an approaching short
wave. Synoptic scale lift ahead of the trough coupled with transient
lift from an exiting upper lvl jet late this evening will bring a
chance of light precipitation to portions of central Kansas.
Initial dry low levels will delay the better chances of precip
until very late tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday.

Large scale ascent is expected to increase throughout the day
Tuesday as the upper trough axis continues to move through the
region. Modest frontogenetical forcing will move from central to
southeast KS which may help set up a SW to NE oriented band of
precip moving through the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is
also a narrow area of weak 295K isentropic lift which may help
augment lift in the afternoon/evening in east central to southeast
KS. The better moisture transport comes late Tuesday night most of
which is off into far southeast KS and MO. Cloud cover will help
keep us a bit warmer overnight with low temps near 40 expected
area wide.

Tuesday, expect high temps in the 50s in central KS. Decent
mixing with southerly flow ahead of the cold front/precip through
the early afternoon will allow high temps to potentially reach the
mid-upper 60s in portions of south central and southeast KS.
Bumped up the winds Tuesday as current soundings show very deep
mixing especially in southeast Kansas. Momentum transfer suggest
gusts up to to 24-25kts possible especially across portions of
southeast Kansas. Sustained speeds currently in the grids may even
need to be adjusted up some with the next issuance. Due to the
wind adjustment the area of very high fire danger has increased to
include all of southeast KS and portions of south central KS on
Tuesday, with the threat diminishing after any precip moves
through late in the afternoon/early evening. Large scale
subsidence behind the trough axis expected to move in Wednesday
morning removing any lingering threat of light precip.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Wednesday to Friday: should see fairly quiet weather with mostly
sunny/clear skies. Temperatures look to be near to above normal,
as low-level thickness values support daytime highs reaching the
60s most areas, especially Thu-Fri. Attention then turns to off-
and-on increased rain/thunderstorm chances Friday night through
early next week, as a series of shortwaves eject eastward out of
the base of a western CONUS longwave trough. While specifics
regarding shortwave amplitude, track and timing remain unclear
this far out, overall model consensus supports periodic bouts of
stronger forcing amidst seasonably rich moisture/instability
across the region. This would suggest an increased potential for
at least pockets of moderate to heavy rain, along with increased
thunderstorm chances late week through early next week. Pockets of
modest instability amidst the mid/upper forcing may support a few
strong thunderstorms, but widespread severe weather is not
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

VFR forecast at all sites throughout the period. Increasing
moisture will lead to lowering clouds throughout the period.
Surface low will move in the vicinity of KGBD near end of
forecast. Light precipitation possible at KRSL, KSLN, KGBD but
chances are too low to mention at this time. MVFR ceilings
possible just beyond the end of the forecast in central KS just
behind the front. -Howerton


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Above normal temperatures and breezy south/southwest winds support
very high grassland fire danger Tuesday across portions of south
central and southeast Kansas, before rain chances move in by late
afternoon. Winds will be the main moderator of the fire threat
tomorrow, and may need to be increased a shave higher in the next
forecast issuance. Otherwise, relatively low fire weather
concerns are expected the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 40 62 37 59 / 0 50 40 10
Hutchinson 39 56 34 60 / 10 50 20 0
Newton 39 57 35 58 / 10 70 30 0
ElDorado 40 62 37 58 / 10 50 50 10
Winfield-KWLD 39 66 39 59 / 0 40 60 10
Russell 38 52 30 60 / 40 40 10 0
Great Bend 38 53 31 59 / 20 40 10 0
Salina 39 54 33 60 / 40 60 10 0
McPherson 39 55 34 59 / 20 60 20 0
Coffeyville 40 67 42 58 / 0 10 60 20
Chanute 39 65 40 57 / 10 30 70 10
Iola 40 63 39 56 / 10 30 70 10
Parsons-KPPF 39 66 41 57 / 0 10 70 10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...KMB
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